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Stannis' credibility.


JonCon's Red Beard

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I'm not sure why Ned's reasons are relevant. What I'm saying is that Jon Arryn's death (which is presumably the reason he fled from KL in fear for his life so he MUST have suspected the Lannisters) increases Stannis's leverage and credibility so even if he felt he didn't have sufficient evidence before, Jon's death changed that. He is now in a position to go to Robert, tell him Jon was murdered by Cersei to protect her secrets, with it being very plausible rather than just self-serving.

And why would Robert believe that? Tears of Lys poisoning is pretty much indistinguishable from an actual stomach disease.

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I can understand Stannis thinking that Robert wouldn't believe him. Unfortunately we don't know what his plan was when he left KL if he had a plan. He could have told Renly but perhaps he didn't want to put him in danger. He could have told Ned. Perhaps he was planning on telling Robert again after gathering swords.

However, my main problem with Stannis is what he does after Robert dies. He does nothing for a while and then he sends these ravens with no proof whatsoever. That's not even the worst bit - he actually expects everybody to believe him and calls them all traitors when they don't. It makes no sense - he thinks Robert won't believe him but everyone else will?

He should have sent envoys to every Great House with as much evidence as he had and it would have been better if he had done this before Robert died but that was definitely the way to go afterwards. He also should have offered them incentives to back him to make it easier for them to believe him, rather then assuming everyone will believe him.

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And why would Robert believe that? Tears of Lys poisoning is pretty much indistinguishable from an actual stomach disease.

Because it's awfully convenient for the Lannisters - exactly the way it was supposed to look. If people are dying to protect a secret then maybe, just maybe, the secret was important enough to have hit upon the ugly truth. Along with the other evidence, it's pretty damning. Two pieces of a puzzle are better than one.

Regardless of Robert's feelings towards Stannis, Robert seems to have genuinely loved Jon Arryn so would be understandably upset at the suggestion someone has murdered him. Suspicion in this case is enough because we also have Lysa fleeing the KL, the disagreement among the maesters etc. There are no guarantees of course, but this was Stannis's best shot to make Robert believe. His chances certainly weren't going to increase while brooding on Dragonstone.

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Robert's 'hate' is highly exaggerated IMHO and so are it's consequences - he allegedly hates Stannis (and Renly) so much he gives them positions on his Small Council and each of them a significant castle. He hates Cersei and yet the worst he does is dismiss her schemes and slap her when she oversteps. He makes no real moves against her or any effort to curb her influence. He's more likely to laugh Stannis out of the room than to go into a murderous rage and kill him, but arguably in Stannis's eyes that's worse.

He did gather his forces yet he still did nothing after that. The Lannisters have no way of stopping him from speaking to Robert privately and if they kill him afterwards that just proves their guilt. Either way, they consider him their enemy anyway so a confrontation is only a question of time. LF thrives on chaos and exposing the incest is pretty much bound to achieve that, while Varys's actions would very much depend on the timing and how close his own plans are to fruition. It's also notable that Varys only started openly assassinating people when all his pawns were in place and arguably only after his preferred claimant has started his campaign. Why assume he would directly move against Stannis when he has so many alternate courses of action?

Right, this. Where is it written that Robert hates his brother? I think the Baratheon brothers all love one another in their own way, Stannis says as much about Robert, at least, when speaking to Jon Snow.

But, to Robert, Stannis is the younger brother that has to be kept in check elsewise he will be a constant party pooper-and maybe even a threat to the way the court perceives Robert's leadership abilities. Hence he takes Stannis down a notch by relegating him to Dragonstone.

To Stannis, Robert's behavior is gross and without majesty, and he's too honest to bite his tongue.

I don't doubt both love Renly as well, but it is obvious why Stannis had to put Renly in his place. A man bound by the law could see no rightfulness in Renly's actions. Robert is simply amused by Renly, their personalities are far more similar.

Robert was one to blow his wad and stop to take a breather. He did it at Duskendale, IIRC, he did it at the Trident, and once he was done at the Trident he had to send Ned off to finish the war. Short attention span and prone to injury, I guess.

Stannis is more patient and pays a lot more attention to detail and consequence. Still, clashing wills is not tantamount to hate.

I also don't think Robert wanted the Lannisters gone. He certainly did not have to marry into their family, he chose to. He could have easily betrothed Renly to Cersei to bind the families, and taken a wife from Dorne, the Reach, etc etc. He wanted the money and the power suffered the other shit that came with it-including a tainted brother-in-law, Jamie.

Paying any mind to LF or Slynt was boooorrrring to Robert. And while he may have given great weight to Lord Arryn's counsel, he wasn't Jon Arryn's subject, Jon was his. I think Ned's perception of how much Robert listened to Jon Arryn was more vested in how Ned felt about Jon, not so much the reality of how Robert felt about Jon. It's like how Robert says he feels about Lyanna: he acts as if he would be the most smitten husband ever, but we all know he would still be a slutty lout with Lyanna as his wife. He acts as if he sees Jon Arryn as a father to be heeded, but in reality he was Jon Arryn's most petulant child.

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Because it's awfully convenient for the Lannisters - exactly the way it was supposed to look. If people are dying to protect a secret then maybe, just maybe, the secret was important enough to have hit upon the ugly truth. Along with the other evidence, it's pretty damning. Two pieces of a puzzle are better than one.

Regardless of Robert's feelings towards Stannis, Robert seems to have genuinely loved Jon Arryn so would be understandably upset at the suggestion someone has murdered him. Suspicion in this case is enough because we also have Lysa fleeing the KL, the disagreement among the maesters etc. There are no guarantees of course, but this was Stannis's best shot to make Robert believe. His chances certainly weren't going to increase while brooding on Dragonstone.

The problem, cleary, was getting and keeping Robert's attention, while timing the Lannister's moves on the other hand. It's the trap that caught both Jon and Ned.

Stannis, you are correct, did not even make an attempt. There could be a variety of reasons for this from laziness to nefariousness and spite. If we read ADWD exchanges, we could infer that Stannis does not take the threat of the Lannisters lightly. By the time he's at the Wall, he no longer boasts that he could crush the Lannisters on his own, instead he seems to know he would need one hell of an army to do it.

Alone on Dragonstone, Stannis may have felt it would be foolish to challenge them without an army. Later, Mel starting filling his head without grandiose thoughts but the Lannisters smacked those down at Blackwter, proving Stannis first instinct correct.

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  • 10 months later...

Lord Renly laughed. "We're fortunate my brother Stannis is not with us. Remember the time he proposed to outlaw brothels? The king asked him if perhaps he'd like to outlaw eating, shitting, and breathing while he was at it.

(aGoT, Eddard)

 

~

 

Slynt's neck was purpling. "Lies, all lies! A strong man makes enemies, Your Grace knows that, they whisper lies behind your back. Naught was ever proven, not a man came forward..."
"Two men who were prepared to come forward died suddenly on their rounds." Stannis narrowed his eyes. "Do not trifle with me, my lord. I saw the proof Jon Arryn laid before the small council. If I had been king you would have lost more than your office, I promise you, but Robert shrugged away your little lapses. 'They all steal,' I recall him saying. 'Better a thief we know than one we don't, the next man might be worse.' Lord Petyr's words in my brother's mouth, I'll warrant. Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I'm certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself".

(aSoS, Samwell)

 
I dunno which  of this events happened first, but, let's assume the one Stannis mentions happened first. There, according to Stannis, Jon HAD PROOF of Slynt being a corrupt man. Also, Jon Arryn was not Stannis. It was the only man who Robert actually would listen to. Yet, he didn't. And then, Later, Stannis proposes to outlaw brothels. Who owns many brothels in the city? Yes. Littlefinger. I guess Stannis was simply trying to get rid of the "source of corruption" in KL as Jon couldn't. But Robert laughs at this. Stannis doesn't know his brother, apparently.
 
If Stannis' wanting to outlaw brothels happened first, then I suppose he realised first what kind of man LF was. Robert laughs at him. And later, when Arryn offered proof of Slynt being corrupt, something apparently Stannis didn't have, Robert still ignores the problem and rather listens to LF. He then realised NOTHING would make Robert change his mind about making big changes in KL.
 
We're talking about a relatively minor event, yes. It's just the removal of an officer. There is no one important involved (neither Slynt nor Baelish have families backing them up or being angry) and two men known to be "rightful" were backing up the accusation. Yet, Robert shrugged it away.
 
And then, Jon dies. 
 
How do we expect Stannis to tell Robert about the incest when this two events proved that he wouldn't take Stannis seriously nor that he would listen to Jon? Yes, this is more serious than just get a man fired, but Stannis had no proof. Jon had proof of a bad officer and yet, Robert didn't believe it. And in this case, he would be talking about accusing the Lannisters with nothing or no one to back him up. And the Lannisters, like LF, were in a way providers of something Robert needed: money.
 
Stannis' assumption of Robert not believing him are very justified. He would rather believe LF, the Lannisters, and get him killed for being a nag.

Wonderful qoutes I still argue with myself on what Stannis could do.
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  • 2 months later...

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