Stannis' credibility.

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

Ashara Dayne.

Wasnt Ashara Dayne supposed to have more dark hair? That girl loks like some Tyroshi who has dyed her hair. Perhaps the one Arriane was supposed to meet when she was going to be fostered in Tyrosh.

[Maid So Fair]

@JCRB Whats up with your picture? Didnt know JonCon secretly liked girls also. :eek: Who is the girl supposed to be anyway?

Lyanna?

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Wasnt Ashara Dayne supposed to have more dark hair? That girl loks like some Tyroshi who has dyed her hair. Perhaps the one Arriane was supposed to meet when she was going to be fostered in Tyrosh.

JCRB confirmed that it was Ashara.

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

JCRB confirmed that it was Ashara.

OK then.

[The Drunkard]

Agreed. I think talking about self-interest is immediately flawed given that he did want to tell Robert before the CF that is this story, which is why he went out of his way to recruit Robert's most trusted adviser to investigate.

But then Jon dies, and now Stannis is without any allies at court, has no more proof than he did initially, thinks that the Lannisters are gunning for him, and is expected to tell Robert, a man who loathes him, hates bad news, doesn't care about corruption, and frequently disregards his requests and advice, "hey bro, your wife's been fucking your bodyguard for the past fifteen years, your children aren't your children, I'm your heir and I'm going to use your father-figure's death as evidence of a conspiracy, we cool?"

Plus, Stannis has a habit of getting stuck in serious cases of analysis paralysis after suffering significant setbacks. It wouldn't surprise me if he left King's Landing to regroup without fear of getting poisoned, and ended up delaying indefinitely, not knowing how to succeed.

I think the brothel thing is more just Stannis being very prudish. Getting to mess with Littlefinger is just the icing on the cake.

[Bronn Urgandy]

He dawdled too long, but fuck it, Jon Arryn obviously didn't plan on spilling the beans too soon, and the MOD in Westeros seems to be "bring proof before you accuse the Lannisters of anything or sit in your castle out the way." as related by Rodrik Cassel to Catelyn. Stannis did more than that, he gathered forces, he couldn't send ravens to KL because they were tended by Cersie's creature, Grand Maester Pycells, who even Ned (no offence dude) spotted for what he was. So he just acted like Stannis, too much deliberating. He was also justified in the belief that Robert wouldn't believe him, whether that be true or not, Stannis couldn't know for a fact that he'd get believed.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

1. Robert hates Stannis. Maybe even more than e hates Cersei.

I wouldn't say he hates Stannis but he definitely doesn't really respect him and treats him like the oddball. All of them do, but it's worst when it comes from your own family.

@JCRB Whats up with your picture? Didnt know JonCon secretly liked girls also. :eek: Who is the girl supposed to be anyway?

Are you saying that gay people can only dance with other gay people?? eh? eh? eh??!

And yes, it's Ashara (in aSoS Meera tells them Ashara also danced with him). I tried darker colour for the hair but it didn't look good)

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Lord Renly laughed. "We're fortunate my brother Stannis is not with us. Remember the time he proposed to outlaw brothels? The king asked him if perhaps he'd like to outlaw eating, shitting, and breathing while he was at it.

(aGoT, Eddard)

~

Slynt's neck was purpling. "Lies, all lies! A strong man makes enemies, Your Grace knows that, they whisper lies behind your back. Naught was ever proven, not a man came forward..."

"Two men who were prepared to come forward died suddenly on their rounds." Stannis narrowed his eyes. "Do not trifle with me, my lord. I saw the proof Jon Arryn laid before the small council. If I had been king you would have lost more than your office, I promise you, but Robert shrugged away your little lapses. 'They all steal,' I recall him saying. 'Better a thief we know than one we don't, the next man might be worse.' Lord Petyr's words in my brother's mouth, I'll warrant. Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I'm certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself".

(aSoS, Samwell)

I dunno which of this events happened first, but, let's assume the one Stannis mentions happened first. There, according to Stannis, Jon HAD PROOF of Slynt being a corrupt man. Also, Jon Arryn was not Stannis. It was the only man who Robert actually would listen to. Yet, he didn't. And then, Later, Stannis proposes to outlaw brothels. Who owns many brothels in the city? Yes. Littlefinger. I guess Stannis was simply trying to get rid of the "source of corruption" in KL as Jon couldn't. But Robert laughs at this. Stannis doesn't know his brother, apparently.

If Stannis' wanting to outlaw brothels happened first, then I suppose he realised first what kind of man LF was. Robert laughs at him. And later, when Arryn offered proof of Slynt being corrupt, something apparently Stannis didn't have, Robert still ignores the problem and rather listens to LF. He then realised NOTHING would make Robert change his mind about making big changes in KL.

We're talking about a relatively minor event, yes. It's just the removal of an officer. There is no one important involved (neither Slynt nor Baelish have families backing them up or being angry) and two men known to be "rightful" were backing up the accusation. Yet, Robert shrugged it away.

And then, Jon dies.

How do we expect Stannis to tell Robert about the incest when this two events proved that he wouldn't take Stannis seriously nor that he would listen to Jon? Yes, this is more serious than just get a man fired, but Stannis had no proof. Jon had proof of a bad officer and yet, Robert didn't believe it. And in this case, he would be talking about accusing the Lannisters with nothing or no one to back him up. And the Lannisters, like LF, were in a way providers of something Robert needed: money.

Stannis' assumption of Robert not believing him are very justified. He would rather believe LF, the Lannisters, and get him killed for being a nag.

I always add this: Jon Arryn has much more reach to Robert than Stannis (dont know if Im using the correct word). However with the evidence Stannis had and presented to Jon, Arryn felt it WAS NOT ENOUGH to go to Bob. Thats why he keeps investigating, and finds the book Stannis doesnt know about.

So people are blaming Stannis for doing exactly the same as Jon who had more chances to convince robert. Jon thought the proof Stannis has was not enough for him to go to robert, so why Stannis should think differnt than Jon?

Even more, Jon not only had a better relationship with Robert, but also Stannis to back him up. Now Stannis is ALONE.

[cassidyaj]

For Robert to even entertain his suspicions about Cersei, he would have had to make it worth Robert's effort (sorry to say). Like aligning with Renly to make Margery Robert's new queen...that might have made Robert listen to him. But with Jon Arryn dead, it was a narrow shot at best and it wouldn't have been taken very kindly if Robert hadn't believed him.

[Ser Eric]

Why is this even debatable? Of course Stannis' actions are completely understandable and as Stannis notes, the accusations only benefit one man and that's Stannis himself. I'd like to know what Stannis' plan was after he fled KL if he had any. But even doing nothing was better than Jon "the seed is strong" Arryn and the general buffoonery of Ned Stark.

[Maid So Fair]

I always add this: Jon Arryn has much more reach to Robert than Stannis (dont know if Im using the correct word). However with the evidence Stannis had and presented to Jon, Arryn felt it WAS NOT ENOUGH to go to Bob. Thats why he keeps investigating, and finds the book Stannis doesnt know about.

So people are blaming Stannis for doing exactly the same as Jon who had more chances to convince robert. Jon thought the proof Stannis has was not enough for him to go to robert, so why Stannis should think differnt than Jon?

Even more, Jon not only had a better relationship with Robert, but also Stannis to back him up. Now Stannis is ALONE.

But the stakes have just got a lot higher. Stannis has a trump card in the death of Jon Arryn, the main reason Ned starts investigating. If he can prove foul play (or at least convince Robert of such) the whole story becomes a lot more credible than when it was just Jon and Stannis reading a book.

[Ser Eric]

But the stakes have just got a lot higher. Stannis has a trump card in the death of Jon Arryn, the main reason Ned starts investigating. If he can prove foul play (or at least convince Robert of such) the whole story becomes a lot more credible than when it was just Jon and Stannis reading a book.

Jon Arryn's death is not a trump card, it's disaster for Stannis. Stannis doesn't think he can convince Robert so he leaves it to Jon to do it and even Jon wasn't too confident because he kept hunting for better proofs rather than confronting Robert with it. And as we know, Stannis misinterprets Jon's death and decides to head for safety.

Ned does not start investigating because Jon Arryn does. He starts investigating because of Littlefingers meddling, something Stannis does not know.

[Mithras]

Whatever the case, declaring the twincest after the death of Robert crippled the chance of being taken seriously because it "conveniently" makes Stannis the rightful heir of Robert, as Renly pointed.

[haemonculus]

I think that, ironically, Renly was initially in a very similar situation. He chose a chance to fight against the Lannisters over his immediate duty, in his case going with his swords to his brother's cause, because in his view Stannis abandoned Robert to go hiding, and thus forfeited the right to be the one to avenge him and take the crown (that is how I interpret it at least).

When he later learns that Stannis actually goes for it, instead of gathering his meager resources just to protect himself, he has already made his deal(s) with the Tyrells. By the time he meets with Stannis he is in no position to go back on his words. The Tyrells are dangerous, powerful and the best chance to beat the Lannisters by far and he knows they pretty much own him. It is the price he payed for his revenge and crown.

[Maid So Fair]

Jon Arryn's death is not a trump card, it's disaster for Stannis. Stannis doesn't think he can convince Robert so he leaves it to Jon to do it and even Jon wasn't too confident because he kept hunting for better proofs rather than confronting Robert with it. And as we know, Stannis misinterprets Jon's death and decides to head for safety.

Ned does not start investigating because Jon Arryn does. He starts investigating because of Littlefingers meddling, something Stannis does not know.

But the main reason he goes to KL is to find out WTF happened to Jon Arryn. It's while investigation what Jon had been up to the last couple of months of his life that makes him 'stumble' across the incest. The death of Jon Arryn gives the allegation a lot more weight because suddenly it is not just a theory but an extremely plausible (if untrue) murder motive. 'Bro, your foster father has been looking into your wife's extramarital affairs and now he's very conveniently dropped dead. Coincidence?' is a lot better than 'I think Cersei's been cheating on you because all your trueborn children are blond.' It's even better if you lead Robert to the water rather than forcing him to drink (just like LF with Ned) - drop some hints and he might figure it out himself.

[Bronn Urgandy]

Whatever the case, declaring the twincest after the death of Robert crippled the chance of being taken seriously because it "conveniently" makes Stannis the rightful heir of Robert, as Renly pointed.

I think the war of 5 Kings forced his hand on that score. Else he may have plotted longer still.

[(f)Aegon (f)orever]

Completely untrue. If he really hated him that much he wouldn't have gave him Dragonstone, or a seat on the small council.

But Stannis took getting Dragonstone as a slight against him because Robert gave Storm's End to Renly when he believes it should have gone to him. I think this is another reason he holds back on telling Robert the truth about the twincest. Everything that Robert has done since he came into power seems like he is going against Stannis and what he believes his claims are -- at least to Stannis. For all we know, Robert might think that giving his brother Dragonstone is a way of making him even more important, but Stannis believes that getting Dragonstone instead of Storm's End strips him of what would have otherwise been his birthright had Robert not come into succession of Storm's End.

I also think that when Robert came into power he realized that to have a successful rule, he needed to surround himself with people who would agree with him and who he could count on to decide on issues in his favour. This could be the reason for Stannis' seat on the council. Plus, Stannis has good strategic planning and was very black and white about what he thought was right and wrong, which could be helpful in Robert's decisions of the realm. However, there was one slight after another and Stannis no longer thought that Robert cared about him or his opinions, so he retreated to Dragonstone.

[Ser Eric]

But the main reason he goes to KL is to find out WTF happened to Jon Arryn. It's while investigation what Jon had been up to the last couple of months of his life that makes him 'stumble' across the incest. The death of Jon Arryn gives the allegation a lot more weight because suddenly it is not just a theory but an extremely plausible (if untrue) murder motive. 'Bro, your foster father has been looking into your wife's extramarital affairs and now he's very conveniently dropped dead. Coincidence?' is a lot better than 'I think Cersei's been cheating on you because all your trueborn children are blond.' It's even better if you lead Robert to the water rather than forcing him to drink (just like LF with Ned) - drop some hints and he might figure it out himself.

My point was that Stannis cannot know any of that. Stannis has no reason to think Ned knows Jon Arryn was murdered or that it was the main reason Ned decided to come to KL. As far as Stannis knows, Ned is coming to KL to take the position of the Hand. That's it.

[Slowpoke Martin]

People need to remember when posting about Stannis' actions, that you have to look at it from his point of view.

Saying things in hindsight is silly because readers know everything thats happening and why it happened.

Stannis has no clue of the truth behind actions of anyone else. Everything he does is due to what he believes is the truth, we know the truth but the characters do not.

[Maid So Fair]

My point was that Stannis cannot know any of that. Stannis has no reason to think Ned knows Jon Arryn was murdered or that it was the main reason Ned decided to come to KL. As far as Stannis knows, Ned is coming to KL to take the position of the Hand. That's it.

I'm not sure why Ned's reasons are relevant. What I'm saying is that Jon Arryn's death (which is presumably the reason he fled from KL in fear for his life so he MUST have suspected the Lannisters) increases Stannis's leverage and credibility so even if he felt he didn't have sufficient evidence before, Jon's death changed that. He is now in a position to go to Robert, tell him Jon was murdered by Cersei to protect her secrets, with it being very plausible rather than just self-serving.