Poor Stannis! and the Manderly Umber Coalition

[The Drunkard]

On 3/1/2016 at 8:06 AM, MLR said:

Without divine intervention (which is always a possibility), the odds of defeating the Boltons are likely insurmountable. First he needs to defeat the Frey war party. Then Ramsay will launch a furious Ramsay-style attack. If somehow he miraculously survives Ramsay, his army will be depleted. There will be death, dissertions, even more cannabalism and possibly open revolt. And he still needs to march three days to Winterfell, scale the 80-foot walls while being attacked by rocks, arrows and scalding oil. Then he needs to fight Roose Bolton forces which are now many times the size of his remaining forces, better fed and better rested. Realistically,without the advantage of surprise, Medieval siege warfare requires an attacking force many times the size of the defending force. Stannis has no chance of prevailing... 

They aren't. They Freys are riding blind into a trap - he'll use the beacon tower to lure them to his position, and they'll destroy themselves trying to charge across the weakened, concealed ice lakes. After which he'll use the Karstark ravens to deceive the remaining Bolton forces, lulling them into a false sense of security that he can take advantage of. Manderly and the other northmen within Winterfell may play a part, or they may fail and be the "heads" Ramsay has lined the walls with, given they were hugely outnumbered within the castle and in a generally precarious position. 

12 hours ago, Ser Biscuit said:

If the North betrays Stannis then I will become a Walder Frey supporter since his actions would have been 100% correct in ridding Westeros of Northern Lords.

They aren't going to betray him. He saved the Wall, united the clansmen and other leaderless northern forces, liberated Deepwood Motte, is about to rid the North of both the Freys and the Boltons, and will eventually restore Winterfell to a loyal northmen/Stark figurehead. Furthermore, his immediate goal is to defend the North from an impending invasion, which no northmen is going to take issue with. (not to mention they'd be depriving themselves of 1000 southern veterans, a blank cheque from the Iron Bank, and the best commander on the continent)

[MorgulisMaximus]

2 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

They aren't. They Freys are riding blind into a trap - he'll use the beacon tower to lure them to his position, and they'll destroy themselves trying to charge across the weakened, concealed ice lakes. After which he'll use the Karstark ravens to deceive the remaining Bolton forces, lulling them into a false sense of security that he can take advantage of. Manderly and the other northmen within Winterfell may play a part, or they may fail and be the "heads" Ramsay has lined the walls with, given they were hugely outnumbered within the castle and in a generally precarious position. 

 

Yes, the ice trick is a possibility. The Freys might "fall" for it but Ramsay won't. And Ramsay always has a few tricks up his sleeves also. But does Stannis even have enough time to set up the ice trick? The Freys will be upon them at any moment.

From a story mechanics point of view, Asha and Theon need an opportunity to escape. Hence Stannis must be surprised... Likely surprise attacked.

The reason Stannis tells Justin Massey about his possible fake death is more for story mechanics than any real trick. Later Melissandre will want to burn Shireen but Massey will remember Stannis's final orders to him. This will put them on a collision course. Melissandre will kow that Stannis is actually dead by seeing it in the flames. Massey will not believe it because Stannis told him not to.

 

[The Drunkard]

Ramsay is neither a great mind nor a great commander. I doubt he would've discovered the trap until it was too late, but he won't get the chance. If he is riding out against Stannis (he wasn't when Theon escaped and one can only guess what happened afterward), the Freys would have beaten him there and the trap would have already been sprung. As to whether Stannis had enough time - he's had weeks, readiness won't be an issue. (when they first arrived at the village he intended to leave by morning, yet overnight the beacon tower was lit and the plan changed to them waiting there indefinitely. Asha doesn't know why, but we can be fairly certain)

The Karstark ravens are going to be important for reasons other than giving Massey a mission.

"I see you all want blood," the Lord of the Dreadfort said. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird's black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship' s hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. "Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis."

Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure."

-

"I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell?"
The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace."
The king leaned back in his chair. "Get him out of here," he commanded. "Leave the ravens."

These ravens keep Roose informed about Stannis and his whereabouts, and now Stannis knows this and is in possession of them. He is in the perfect position to feed his enemies false information given the blizzard's intense fog-of-war effect, and I can't see a scenario in which he doesn't take advantage of that. And given his need to get into Winterfell/get the Boltons out, and given the information in the PL, faking his defeat seems the most likely scenario.

I'm not sure why you're treating an escape by Theon and Asha as a necessary conclusion and working back from that.

[MorgulisMaximus]

4 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Ramsay is neither a great mind nor a great commander. I doubt he would've discovered the trap until it was too late, but he won't get the chance. If he is riding out against Stannis (he wasn't when Theon escaped and one can only guess what happened afterward), the Freys would have beaten him there and the trap would have already been sprung. As to whether Stannis had enough time - he's had weeks, readiness won't be an issue. (when they first arrived at the village he intended to leave by morning, yet overnight the beacon tower was lit and the plan changed to them waiting there indefinitely. Asha doesn't know why, but we can be fairly certain)

The Karstark ravens are going to be important for reasons other than giving Massey a mission.

 

Hmmm... very interesting. Asha noticed many holes in the ice and ice fishing might just be a quasi-red herring. But I'm afraid the Karstark ravens already served their purpose... Not bird mail but Bran mail.

Rob Stark was no experienced military commander and barely a grown man. Yet he won many battles against more experienced enemy commanders. Ramsay Snow originally captured Winterfell when he was hugely outnumbered by the other northern forces competing to capture Winterfell. Truth is, Stannis is a Jeb! Looks great on paper but gets mixed results... some great victories and some crushing defeats.

GRRM has always maintained that Robert was the real steel. Stannis is just brittle iron and will shatter when the sh*t hits the fan. GRRM describes himself as a gardener... His stories grow organically from the seeds he planted many years ago. GRRM is unlikely to suddenly turn Stannis from a lemon tree into an solid oak tree.

There has been much foreshadowing that Mel misinterpreted her visions and Stannis is a false Azor Ahai. She is so deeply invested in Stannis that only his death will shake her beliefs and re-align her focus onto either Jon or Danaerys. I actually think Dany is the real Azor Ahai... But if Jon is re-awakened from frozen death with white Targaryean hair, then all bets are off.

Or maybe one is "Azor" and one is "Ahai"... One is Fire and one is Ice.

 

[MorgulisMaximus]

7 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

He is in the perfect position to feed his enemies false information given the blizzard's intense fog-of-war effect, and I can't see a scenario in which he doesn't take advantage of that. And given his need to get into Winterfell/get the Boltons out, and given the information in the PL, faking his defeat seems the most likely scenario.

I'm not sure why you're treating an escape by Theon and Asha as a necessary conclusion and working back from that.

 

It is possible, but it doesn't quite feel like what Stannis would do. Faking his death would also have serious negative consequences. The Iron Bank would immediately cut off his funding. Support for Stannis would quickly deteriorate across the North and beyond and leaders re-align to the next best option for themselves. Some will no doubt switch to The Bolton banner. Bolton morale and control will skyrocket inside of Winterfell. 

Asha and likely Theon also are crucial to the Greyjoy storyline. Theon is a dead man if he fails to escape Stannis. Asha also clearly fears for her own life. Asha is a go-getter, she won't wait around like a Sansa. When the opportunity arise she will flee westward for the Iron Isles. No way in hell Stannis will voluntarily free either of them. Hence I think escape is an inevitability.

Maybe Asha is luring Stannis to the island because she plans to use the breaking ice trick on Stannis in order to aid her escape... There are many holes in the ice from ice fishing. Asha and Alys Mormont have also been ice fishing. No doubt some holes have begun to re-freeze and the falling snow will make it difficult to spot where they are. But Asha knows because she has been using them...

[the conquering bastard 25]

On 2/17/2015 at 9:58 PM, Skinner said:

Trying to prop up a child King in the North on the eve of winter? With all the other problems? Good luck.

Thank you! RICKON IS THE BACK UP CHOICE!

The lords wont bend for Stannis. Yet there also not stupid enough to want a boy king unless an adult ruler is unavailable.

Sansa is in the Vale but hidden and an attainted traitor wanted by the crown for possibly being implicated in the death of a king. Even if thay werent the case Shes a lannister! Its over no redos. Tyrion is alive an a friend of a certain dead bastard on the wall. Not to mention that if a certain will is ever found Sansa has been attainted for her marriage and stripped of her claim. Then there is the little finger connection and if even one part of what he told Sansa comes to pass it would make the northern lords fight all the harder. Nothing knits a broken and fractured realm back together quicker than an invading force. If the Vale lords win Sansa back her birthright they become vassals of the vale in all but name. No the north would nvr abide by that.

Rickon is a child meaning a regency council. The North only has to look at Joffery and Tommens reigns to know as Bolton said ' boy kings are the bane of any house.' all this does is breed grounda for problems the north doesnt have time to deal with. Thwre is the process of gatheirng a council. With the Manderlys Umbers and possibly Mormonts viaing for key positions. The Manderlys with their wealth and access to all the minting pressing north of the neck make them a serious contender.

UMBER being so close to the w

Wall and possibling having the men to help protect them better along with wood to help contining to build said fleet.

The Mormonts have the power of information. Namely Robbs will and who was named heir. Their home is an island so im sure again they have access to a meager fleet that can be used to patrol the other side of the north.

How many boy kings do you need me to site todrive home just how bad of an idea it would be to place Rickon on the throne. 

Henry III, Edward III, Richard II, Edward V and VI( tragic), Mary Queen of Scots and thats just enlish history.  And the king that is the reason for the entire War of the Roses and inspiration for the damn backstory Henry VI. Need i point out some of those tragic rules from France?  No need. I think we have got the picture.

Then there is Jon. Hes got issues for his claim bur his benifits out way the hinderances.

He is of Stark blood(even if a bastard) Queen Mary I and Elizabeth I both bastards and they were girls. Yet both were in Henrys will as his successors. Jon was named heir by Robb and given legitimate status via his will.

Jon is old enough in his own right to rule. Unlike main branch legitamate Stark cousins. All of said cousins would need a regency council. Even Sansa shes 13 people. Even if she didnt the north would in truth be ruled by Tyrion.

Jon unlike his cousins he has military training and experince of leading men in battle. After Noyle died Jon held the Wall until Stannis gets there. He holds long enough for relief he didnt k ow was coming. Along with being raised by Ned whom it appears most of the older lords who still live repsect him and if Robb and his style of leadership(military) is an indicator of Jons training. Train in Rickons case is incomplete is another point in Jons favor. Along with Robb having recommeded him for the job. 

Jon from his time in the Watch has gotten a rep as a fighter and the fact that he elected as its leader again would recommend him.

Give that some of thehill tribes stop by the Wall for Karstarks wedding and Jon knows they arent there for the cake. Implies they are checking out the new commander. Along with Jons intentions of allowing the Widlings thru the wall...would raise an eyebrow or two. So they are their to find out why. Given the situation they can also vouch for Jon when starts talking like a mad man about dead men walking and the Others. Again point in Jons favor.

Then there is Jon and his faith. Unlike all the other Stark children he isnt influenced by the Seven. Yes the lords know Robb followed the old gods and where Jon saifld his vows would and have been noted. Yet the other children were of no importance to pay attention to where there religious convictions lay. But again Sansa has been noted as a.devote obsever of the new gods. The gossip of her always praying and being obseved by the KL court. Sansa herself notes in the Eeryie that no weirwoods grew there. Again the Vale is westeros birthplace.for the new gods. 

Perception is reality. How you percieve something or a situation is your reality even if events or actions werent intended to reflect as such.

Why do some readers think George has given us the example of power being a shadow on the wall. Power is a trick. Those that rule let us see what they want us to see.

Think back to how Tyrion didnt want his arguement with Joffery to go no further at both their weddings. He didnt want the realm to get the impression he was a weak link in the Lannister dynasty.Tyrions trial is proof that perception is reality.

 

Sorry rant over

[JLE]

Robert was the real steel... who went to rust.

Stannis is iron... brittle, BUT, iron can be tempered and become steel. In fact that's kind of the point of it.

He may break... OR he may be tempered and become a better leader for it.

Or he may fail, and die.

However I do not think his destiny is to die against the Boltons, if only because he simply *has* to meet Shireen and Melisandre again, even if he makes a different decision in the books to in the films. And the only way he can meet them again is if he actually survives, and he's put himself in a position where the only way he can survive is by beating the Boltons: he would be unlikely to even make it back to the Wall, with or without his men, now, even if he were to abandon Winterfell. The Northern Clansmen, who now form more than half his army, are not out for a run to the wall, they're here for a fight against the Boltons and don't even care if they live or die as long as they *have* one last fight against the hated enemy.

In addition, Stannis has a few Northern houses firmly on his side now, not least the Glovers - plus some support that he doesn't expect: namely ALL rather than half of House Umber (Hother is cooperating with his brother from inside Winterfell), and also, House Manderly who he thinks are his enemies are in fact his friends. He even has, conveniently, some Karstark colours and uniforms to hand now, so that he has the power to get men into Winterfell (for instance his Northern allies), disguised as Karstarks, to cause chaos inside Winterfell.

Ramsay, meanwhile, is no commander in a straight-up battle: his battle success against the defenders of Winterfell came because of disguise and treachery, the defenders took him for a friend (with good reason: Ramsay was believed to be dead, the Dreadfort soldiers would have been under a lowborn commander who would not have dared betray the Winterfell garrison of his own initiative, only Ramsay's actual presence - and the ability to pass the blame to Theon - allowed him to get away with it.) Also, Ramsay's very first strike against the Winterfell defenders was to murder Roderick Cassel: he, more than anybody, knows the value of murdering the opposing leader for throwing the enemy forces into confusion.

Which makes me suspect that Ramsay will try to find a way to pose as a friend again, for the purpose of getting into Stannis's camp and murdering Stannis.

He cannot be doing so by hiding among the Karstark soldiers already since they came to Stannis while Ramsay was still in Winterfell, so the only way he could pose as a friend to Stannis's army is by hiding with the Manderlys, who might stand a chance of survival if they surrender (although even the Boltons do not imagine the possibility of the Manderly army actually defecting en masse, since they believe Wyman Manderly has burned his bridges by executing Davos, whereas both Wyman and Wylis know that Davos is still alive and trying to fetch back Rickon Stark to assist Stannis's cause.)

Meanwhile: Actually murdering Stannis might throw his army into some kind of confusion, but the Northern Clans would continue on marching anyway, since they don't care about living or dying, only about one last battle - which I suspect Roose would be happy enough to give them, since it would mean that he himself would have fewer men to feed when his own men came back from it. BUT, if Stannis were to arrange to fake his own death, then crucial commanders of his own southern forces would have to be in on the plan, and thus the southerners too would keep their discipline - and even perhaps be able to keep the northerners in order until Stannis could make his re-appearance. And if the real Stannis gets killed, the southerners still have nowhere else to go, they can't march north or south, all they can do is hurl themselves against Winterfell. There's actually no avoiding the battle for any of the forces *outside* Winterfell - no escaping, no deserting, no chance of survival by fleeing: getting inside Winterfell is now their only hope of survival. Those who flee, will die in the snow: and those who fall or flee... will rise as wights and besiege Winterfell again when the Wall falls, as it surely must, and the Others come south.

Incidentally this was a tactic used by Hannibal, putting his army in such a position that the *only* way out of it was by destroying the enemy: it's one of the reasons he chose the winter rather than the summer to pass the Alps, knowing that there was no retreat for his men if they lost the first battle because the passes were now closed behind them. He even demonstrated it by staging a gladiatorial contest between Gaulish hostages, as an illustration to his men: there is no escape, it's win or die.

[the conquering bastard 25]

5 hours ago, JLE said:

Robert was the real steel... who went to rust.

Stannis is iron... brittle, BUT, iron can be tempered and become steel. In fact that's kind of the point of it.

He may break... OR he may be tempered and become a better leader for it.

Or he may fail, and die.

However I do not think his destiny is to die against the Boltons, if only because he simply *has* to meet Shireen and Melisandre again, even if he makes a different decision in the books to in the films. And the only way he can meet them again is if he actually survives, and he's put himself in a position where the only way he can survive is by beating the Boltons: he would be unlikely to even make it back to the Wall, with or without his men, now, even if he were to abandon Winterfell. The Northern Clansmen, who now form more than half his army, are not out for a run to the wall, they're here for a fight against the Boltons and don't even care if they live or die as long as they *have* one last fight against the hated enemy.

In addition, Stannis has a few Northern houses firmly on his side now, not least the Glovers - plus some support that he doesn't expect: namely ALL rather than half of House Umber (Hother is cooperating with his brother from inside Winterfell), and also, House Manderly who he thinks are his enemies are in fact his friends. He even has, conveniently, some Karstark colours and uniforms to hand now, so that he has the power to get men into Winterfell (for instance his Northern allies), disguised as Karstarks, to cause chaos inside Winterfell.

Ramsay, meanwhile, is no commander in a straight-up battle: his battle success against the defenders of Winterfell came because of disguise and treachery, the defenders took him for a friend (with good reason: Ramsay was believed to be dead, the Dreadfort soldiers would have been under a lowborn commander who would not have dared betray the Winterfell garrison of his own initiative, only Ramsay's actual presence - and the ability to pass the blame to Theon - allowed him to get away with it.) Also, Ramsay's very first strike against the Winterfell defenders was to murder Roderick Cassel: he, more than anybody, knows the value of murdering the opposing leader for throwing the enemy forces into confusion.

Which makes me suspect that Ramsay will try to find a way to pose as a friend again, for the purpose of getting into Stannis's camp and murdering Stannis.

He cannot be doing so by hiding among the Karstark soldiers already since they came to Stannis while Ramsay was still in Winterfell, so the only way he could pose as a friend to Stannis's army is by hiding with the Manderlys, who might stand a chance of survival if they surrender (although even the Boltons do not imagine the possibility of the Manderly army actually defecting en masse, since they believe Wyman Manderly has burned his bridges by executing Davos, whereas both Wyman and Wylis know that Davos is still alive and trying to fetch back Rickon Stark to assist Stannis's cause.)

Meanwhile: Actually murdering Stannis might throw his army into some kind of confusion, but the Northern Clans would continue on marching anyway, since they don't care about living or dying, only about one last battle - which I suspect Roose would be happy enough to give them, since it would mean that he himself would have fewer men to feed when his own men came back from it. BUT, if Stannis were to arrange to fake his own death, then crucial commanders of his own southern forces would have to be in on the plan, and thus the southerners too would keep their discipline - and even perhaps be able to keep the northerners in order until Stannis could make his re-appearance. And if the real Stannis gets killed, the southerners still have nowhere else to go, they can't march north or south, all they can do is hurl themselves against Winterfell. There's actually no avoiding the battle for any of the forces *outside* Winterfell - no escaping, no deserting, no chance of survival by fleeing: getting inside Winterfell is now their only hope of survival. Those who flee, will die in the snow: and those who fall or flee... will rise as wights and besiege Winterfell again when the Wall falls, as it surely must, and the Others come south.

Incidentally this was a tactic used by Hannibal, putting his army in such a position that the *only* way out of it was by destroying the enemy: it's one of the reasons he chose the winter rather than the summer to pass the Alps, knowing that there was no retreat for his men if they lost the first battle because the passes were now closed behind them. He even demonstrated it by staging a gladiatorial contest between Gaulish hostages, as an illustration to his men: there is no escape, it's win or die.

I would like to disagree about where some of these lords loyality lie.

The Glovers arent beholded to Stannis. It was jon that helped him form that little plan. Given Stannis lack of courtesy and knowing how to lie. All itwould take is gloves wife gushing her thanks for him to say ' i only came here because the Bastard of WF.'

It was Jons arms, scouts,  and supplies that got Stannis from the wall to walls of winterfell.

You think Glovers wife is going to note of all the gossip and talk from Stanniss camp while there.

I think if anythung when the time comes their loyality might be split but they will still stand with thw Starks.  

The Umbers and Manderlys arw working together. They have the same agenda. Now whether that be rickon or jon only the books know. Stannis is a tool they mean to make god use of and then send him packing back south.

[JLE]

That may well be true, but it will only matter if the remaining Starks actually come into conflict with Stannis. And it has to be said that, far from it, Jon Snow - despite his position in the Watch, probably regarded as the senior surviving Stark by the remainder of the North - appears to be on comparatively friendly terms with Stannis. So the rest of the North would be unlikely to betray Stannis if Jon remained friendly with him, given that we are likely to see Jon return to life. In any case Jon is not claiming the lordship of Winterfell, or the name of Stark, whatever the other Northern lords may think, and indeed whatever Stannis might think, having actually refused it when Stannis attempted to offer it (an act which may have given the Northern lords mixed feelings: on the one hand, the lordship of Winterfell was not his to offer, on the other, at least he offered it to the right person - who then declined it, earning yet more respect because to betray the Watch would have lost him all respect in the North, where they still respect the Watch. It's even possible that *both* Stannis and Jon will have emerged from that little exchange with more credit than they started.)

The Manderlys are in a special position because they are the only Northern house who know that there still IS a legitimate Stark alive - Rickon - and are apparently trying to bring him back alive. But even then, Rickon is a child, in no position to rule the North in anything but name, whether it is independent or not: and the Manderlys being the most "southern" house of the Northern houses are less likely to be concerned about the independence of the North if Stannis should try to deny it, and more likely to be concerned with having a southern King who is an enemy to the Lannisters and Freys (an independent North would be in no position to take revenge on either house, they actually need southern allies for either.)

[Muggle]

In my original OP I didn't mean to imply that the North are going to turn on and physically fight Stannis. I just think they are going to give him the cold shoulder. This Manderly / Umber alliance will take Winterfell before Stannis shows up. They will take the recently widowed fArya off Stannis hands give him some supplies and tell him to start packing. Stannis will lose his Northern forces for the saftey of Winterfell and be left with a hand full of his original men and march back to the wall. There he will find his last ally Jon has been murdered and the NW not very welcoming to him. Then he will be at his lowest where he will sacrifice Shireen at the instruction of Mel. Who I think will use the sacrifice to revive / heal Jon. I hope just heal because I really dont like the idea of an UnJon running around. 

[mbuehner]

I dont think this scenario is likely- but the smartest move for the Northmen would be to betray the Boltons and Freys, and then finish off Stannis.

If Manderly were to send Stannis's head to Kings Landing, he could make a pretty safe bet that Cersei or whomever was presumed to be in charge wouldnt care to ask too many questions about how poor Roose Bolton and the brave Freys died in a close run battle that ultimately killed the traitor. Whoever has Stannis's head to offer will likely have the good will of the Iron Throne, so long as they are sure to send their allegiance along with the head. The King might even be amendable to allowing a very young Stark untainted by treason to sit his fathers seat as Lord of Winterfell. 

 

Now a REALLY savvy Northman might consider further that clearing the Wall of Jon Snow and the remainder of the Southrons holed up there could curry some additional favor, and if that could be done while also slaughtering the Wildlings south of the Wall, well so much the better. So why not cook up a fake letter designed to send Snow marching south with his Wilding friends where they could be caught out in the open?

Again, Im not saying this is what happened, but it would be a pretty brilliant move.

[Muggle]

Stannis has to get to the Wall somehow to burn his daughter.

[The Drunkard]

They're not going to turn on him. The clan leaders are too quarrelsome and divided, according to Jon and the Glovers, to ever unite without an authority figure to lead them (Starks of Winterfell in the past, Stannis currently). They aren't going to turn on Stannis unless he does something major to offend them, and that's not going to happen given the consideration he gives their beliefs and counsel in the Asha and sample chapters. Wyman's a dead man waddling, and there's no indication that his son is deceitful/callous enough to use Stannis and throw him away. Robett's grateful that Stannis liberated his castle and restored it to Sybelle and expressed his willingness (along with Wyman) to jump ship. Mors already offered to join, should Stannis meet some trivial demands (a head and a pardon). The lordless smallfolk who joined after Deepwood aren't going to turn on the king that rallied them and led them to victory against the Freys/Boltons for the sake of some noble's ambitions. Jon certainly won't (especially if Stannis is propping up Rickon).

Furthermore they'd be depriving themselves of the best commander still standing and a blank cheque from the Iron Bank with which they could reinforce and resupply the North in preparation for the Others. It'd be a dumb move. 

[Ruhail]

I agree with everything @The Drunkard said. I also never got why the northmen and the clansmen turning on Stannis is such a popular theory. Heres a guy who comes north to the Wall's aid against the wildling problem pacifies them with 1600 men. Marches down to WF on the way liberates Deep wood motte from the iron born pests who have been there since book 2. Parades Asha around for the northmen to see he means what he says. Also gives house Glover their land back. Hes now currently the only hope against taking back WF from the Boltons. 

Also, you have it built up that these northerners are utterly loyal and hate any form of betrayal and killing your alllies. They'd come off as the same as the Boltons and Freys if they killed Stannis after all hes done for them.

[the conquering bastard 25]

On 4/24/2016 at 0:56 PM, JLE said:

That may well be true, but it will only matter if the remaining Starks actually come into conflict with Stannis. And it has to be said that, far from it, Jon Snow - despite his position in the Watch, probably regarded as the senior surviving Stark by the remainder of the North - appears to be on comparatively friendly terms with Stannis. So the rest of the North would be unlikely to betray Stannis if Jon remained friendly with him, given that we are likely to see Jon return to life. In any case Jon is not claiming the lordship of Winterfell, or the name of Stark, whatever the other Northern lords may think, and indeed whatever Stannis might think, having actually refused it when Stannis attempted to offer it (an act which may have given the Northern lords mixed feelings: on the one hand, the lordship of Winterfell was not his to offer, on the other, at least he offered it to the right person - who then declined it, earning yet more respect because to betray the Watch would have lost him all respect in the North, where they still respect the Watch. It's even possible that *both* Stannis and Jon will have emerged from that little exchange with more credit than they started.)

The Manderlys are in a special position because they are the only Northern house who know that there still IS a legitimate Stark alive - Rickon - and are apparently trying to bring him back alive. But even then, Rickon is a child, in no position to rule the North in anything but name, whether it is independent or not: and the Manderlys being the most "southern" house of the Northern houses are less likely to be concerned about the independence of the North if Stannis should try to deny it, and more likely to be concerned with having a southern King who is an enemy to the Lannisters and Freys (an independent North would be in no position to take revenge on either house, they actually need southern allies for either.)

First off its one thing for Stannis whom has no right to name anyone to anything in the North offering him Winterfell. Against his brother whom he cared for and respected naming him heir to Winterfell.

Jon is and always has been ambitious. Why do you think he removed himself for Robbs regime and went to the Watch. If he stayed he would have lielved his life in Robbs shadow. On the Wall he knew he likely would one day be named LC of the Watch. It was almost a given seeing as 90% of the LCs have been some relation to the Starks of Winterfell.

Jon dreamed of doing deeds that woukd make him worthy of the title and sword of the Starks. 

Jon isalso smart enough to realize he will neee the power of king or Protector of the Realm to have the authority to actually make the north ready for the Other invasion. Unlike his couains hes actually fought and killed a whitewalker. Unlike his couwins he actually knows whats waiting in the great beyond of the North.

Jon Snow is the very definition of dutiful. He will do what he sees as his duty and if usurping Rickon of his rights is how he defends the realms of men as he vowed. Then so fucking be it.

Really sometimes i think people only see what they want and throw out what they dislike.

All the other Stark children just dont make sense other than to be something for Jon to feel guilty about how he came to power. 

[JLE]

I doubt Jon would usurp from Rickon. On the other hand, I expect Rickon to die - the whole chase after him to be effectively a wild-goose chase, possibly a "shaggy dog story" - a long, meandering story which ends up being pointless - note the name of Rickon's direwolf here. And if this happens at about the same time as Robb Stark's will finally showing up, in which he officially adopted Jon Snow into the Stark family and named him as a potential successor... why then, of course, Robb had made that will while believing that both his legitimate brothers were dead: Jon might himself point out that while Rickon is alive, a trueborn brother (even if younger) should come before an adopted brother, but if Rickon is dead, then there is nobody to dispute his right to be next in line.

However, if Jon returns to life and is recognised as leader for the Watch, nobody will dare murder him a second time... well then he has a separate authority of his own which is not subject to the King in the North anyway, which allows both Jon and Rickon to technically hold their positions: as well as potentially allowing Jon to act as Rickon's effective regent, oath or no oath. He has, after all, died and thus fulfilled the stipulations of "until the day of my death".

Certainly, there is no doubt that if the alternative was "Jon, or some distant cousin from the Vale who happens to be the nearest Stark relation and doesn't even know it", then Jon would take up the position and the whole North would follow him. On the other hand... Sansa is in the Vale, which makes *her* - rather than the distant cousins - the senior Stark in that position, especially if she can break out from under Littlefinger's power. Sansa might yet become Queen of the North, a "She-Wolf of Winterfell" with Jon as an ally.

As for Stannis? The North won't have him as King in the North, of course, but they will have no objection to his claim to King's Landing. The issue here is whether they will accept the North itself as being nominally subject to King's Landing - in other words, whether Stannis is recognised as an overlord, or just as an ally: and in that, they are likely either way to look to their *local* lord - the Stark of Winterfell, once there *is* a Stark in Winterfell again - for leadership. Stannis is an ally of convenience right now: and, admittedly he has needed a fair deal of prodding to get him moving in the right direction, but he *is* doing the right things - looking to defend the Wall, restore the true Northern Lords, put a Stark back in Winterfell, learn how to win allies from the Northern clans, even (at the persuasion of Asha Greyjoy) adopt the Northern tradition for execution of a criminal, although it's hinted that Theon will live a while yet - he is being kept alive right now because he might be useful for information. So, if Stannis succeeds in helping the Northern loyalists (i.e. the coalition led by Manderly and Umber) put a Stark back in Winterfell, and if that Stark is Rickon, then he will obviously need a regent (almost certainly Jon), and it's what that regent might decide: if that Stark is Jon himself, the decision comes down to him anyway. If somehow Sansa returns to the north, who knows which way she would jump? And Jon would do "whatever is necessary to hold back the Others", whatever that might turn out to be.

If, that is, Stannis is still alive to meet him when he comes back. I don't think he will be: but I also don't believe he is going to die in battle against House Bolton *right now*. Nor will he be betrayed by the North: it'll come about some other way. I don't believe he will survive but I would like to hope that he dies in a way that is worthy of a king, fighting *for* the realm against external enemies rather than *within* it against internal enemies.

Symbolism is important: Jon's wolf was a different colour to the rest. The usual colours of House Stark are a grey direwolf on a white background: a bastard traditionally has reversed colours, so a bastard Stark with a coat of arms would have a white direwolf on a grey background... guess what, Jon's direwolf is white, and there is no painting him grey. Whether he's Eddard's or Lyanna's bastard, he is still a bastard, and has accepted it, and made it (on the suggestion of Tyrion) a major part of his identity.

[dariopatke]

But with winter and Others coming one might think North will need a commander like Stannis to lead them. Also, why would hey want to get rid of him when he wants to have a Stark in WF just as much as North does?

With this war coming they need 7K and even that may not be enough, why go independent now?

[Ruhail]

4 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

But with winter and Others coming one might think North will need a commander like Stannis to lead them. Also, why would hey want to get rid of him when he wants to have a Stark in WF just as much as North does?

With this war coming they need 7K and even that may not be enough, why go independent now?

I think you are right on that the North would probably have it in them to swallow their pride and bend the knee to the man who stopped the wildings, routed the Boltons and gave back WF to the starks.