The Blackfyre

[LmL]

The only one being definite is yourself, not me. My position has been fairly open minded. Not everything has to have a hidden meaning. Indeed, most of things in this series will have no hidden meanings. Which is why the suggestion that because the Golden Company has been mentioned Aegon must be a Blackfyre is baseless.

Could he be a Blackfyre? Sure, he could be. He could also be a faceless man from Bravos. He could also be Jon's twin brother. But there is no evidence for any of it and I say that despite liking the twin brother theory.

This is getting really bad. I haven't said anything definitive about the Blackfyre theory, except that there is some amount of evidence to suggest it as possible. Nonoduy is saying that because xxx fAegon MUST be a Blackfyre. No one is saying that. You are distorting really badly here.

You keep saying there is no evidence - I think you just don't understand the meaning of the word. What you mean to say is that you don't find it compelling, but instead you keep invalidating everyone with BS assertions like "there is no evidence." There is nothing to suggest him as a faceless man - that comparison is absurd. No one has ever suggested there is anything to suggest that. Still, if you can find it, I'll take a look - maybe we are all missing something. It IS possible.

You're arguing tactic here is to try to undermine the legitimacy of any other position that your own by labeling things ridiculous and claiming there is no evidence, when there very clearly is. It's not necessary.

[Greg B]

This is getting really bad. I haven't said anything definitive about the Blackfyre theory, except that there is some amount of evidence to suggest it as possible. Nonoduy is saying that because xxx fAegon MUST be a Blackfyre. No one is saying that. You are distorting really badly here.

Its not really Lost Melniboneans theory, it's been widely circulated for years, he just did an excellent job of recapping the whole thing in this thread. And pretty much every single long time poster agrees with it, certainly every poster I respect on here understands the foreshadowing of the part the Blackfyres will play in the next DoD.

:dunno:

[Ser Eric]

This is getting really bad. I haven't said anything definitive about the Blackfyre theory, except that there is some amount of evidence to suggest it as possible. Nonoduy is saying that because xxx fAegon MUST be a Blackfyre. No one is saying that. You are distorting really badly here.

You keep saying there is no evidence - I think you just don't understand the meaning of the word. What you mean to say is that you don't find it compelling, but instead you keep invalidating everyone with BS assertions like "there is no evidence." There is nothing to suggest him as a faceless man - that comparison is absurd. No one has ever suggested there is anything to suggest that. Still, if you can find it, I'll take a look - maybe we are all missing something. It IS possible.

You're arguing tactic here is to try to undermine the legitimacy of any other position that your own by labeling things ridiculous and claiming there is no evidence, when there very clearly is. It's not necessary.

I know very well what I'm saying thank you very much. There are lots of theories I find very compelling but I'm willing to recognize that most of them are completely crackpot.

My arguing tactics involve taking passages from the book to refute some of the arguments made. I'm sorry you don't like it but that's how it is.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Bother with that what?

I mean, seriously, if you don't want people picking holes in your theories then don't post them. There are not a lot of theories that interest me. This is one of them that does interest me (Aegon is one of my favourite characters) which is why I happen to post a lot on these threads.

Oh, I see, you're offended by the suggestion that Aegon is something other than you believe him to be. That's cool. I was already spoiled about The Ned and the Young Wolf's death, but i remember fretting like an old lady when Arya went blind. The first thing i did when Dance was released was look for her POV. Do you expect Aegon to be the prince that was promised?

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think it's more of a problem when some of you posters assign meaning to things and are unwilling to allow it to mean anything other than what you want.

I don't know if it's a problem in that it's harmful and must be overcome. But if we reach conclusions based on fautly assumptions, then we can reach bad conclusions. But this is an inherent risk in inductive arguments since they lack deductive validity. That's why we have to address the assumptions we make to reach our conclusions. I think I've done a pretty thorough job in laying out my rationale for concluding that there is a Blackfyre, and that Blackfyre is Aegon. We readers may never be able to prove or disprove it decisively, though.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Taking this thread down a different hole, Lost Melnibonean, I know you've read at least some of my astronomy theories. Have you read anything I have said about black fire? Stepping away form the Blackfyre line itself, the concept of black fire is something George has been developing since long before he wrote ASOIAF. Read the Lonely Songs of Laren Dorr and you will be blown away.

In ASOIAF proper, black fire represents the opposite of pale fire. The Gemstone Emperors have swords of pale fire, while I believe Azor Ahai's lightbringer was actually a match for Drogon's flame:

Aegons dragons were named for the gods of Old Valyria, she told her bloodriders one morning after a long nights journey. Visenyas dragon was Vhagar, Rhaenys had Meraxes, and Aegon rode Balerion, the Black Dread. It was said that Vhagars breath was so hot that it could melt a knights armor and cook the man inside, that Meraxes swallowed horses whole, and Balerion his fire was as black as his scales, his wings so vast that whole towns were swallowed up in their shadow when he passed overhead.

The Dothraki looked at her hatchlings uneasily. The largest of her three was shiny black, his scales slashed with streaks of vivid scarlet to match his wings and horns. Khaleesi, Aggo murmured, there sits Balerion, come again.

It may be as you say, blood of my blood, Dany replied gravely, but he shall have a new name for this new life. I would name them all for those the gods have taken. The green one shall be Rhaegal, for my valiant brother who died on the green banks of the Trident. The cream- and- gold I call Viserion. Viserys was cruel and weak and frightened, yet he was my brother still. His dragon will do what he could not.

And the black beast? asked Ser Jorah Mormont.

The black, she said, is Drogon.

ACOK, DAENERYS

I say, you are mad.

Am I? Dany shrugged, and said, Dracarys. The dragons answered. Rhaegal hissed and smoked, Viserion snapped, and Drogon spat swirling red- black flame. It touched the drape of Grazdans tokar, and the silk caught in half a heartbeat. (ASOS, Daenerys)

Dawn is an icy sword of pale luminescence, and I think Lightbringer was a sword of dark flame. Ice that shines (Others are pale shadows) and fire that is black (Mel's shadow babies are dark shadows) seems to be the deal here. It kind of goes with everything about Asshai and everything we have seen about fire magic - it's a lot more shadow than light.

That's bullocks, I mean talk about a bunch of gibberish. To suggest that this is anything other than world building is just ridiculous.

;) I think I will read that short story you cited.

[Lord Varys]

I'd say that the Blackfyre angle/story may not necessarily be important in itself. What will become an important plot point is Aegon's true heritage - if he is not Rhaegar's son - and how the revelation of this (either in the inner circle or in the Realm as whole) will affect the relationships and outlooks of the few people.

I remember starting a thread shortly after the publication of ADwD asking the question how Aegon himself, Jon Connington, and Varys/Illyrio will react if this becomes an issue. What will Aegon do if he learns who his actual father is - say, by overhearing a conversation between Varys and Illyrio after they have taken KL? What is Illyrio's hope in that regard - does he want to tell his son the truth eventually, or not? What is Varys' opinion in all that. And so on. There is a lot of potential for a good story there. It is quite clear that Illyrio will soon join the guys in Westeros and play an important role there - he announced as much in ADwD. And I cannot see him not trying to do anything in his power to see his lad succeed. He may actually arrive with another company of sellswords. After all, without the dragons Aegon needs every sword he can get.

Some members in the Golden Company may know or suspect the truth - although I think Myles Toyne died so that this truth would never come out. Harry Strickland may suspect something - or not. It is quite clear that the Golden Company is as happy fighting for a Targaryen pretender than it would be fighting for a Blackfyre pretender - perhaps even more happy as they know/realize that the actual magical name is Targaryen, not Blackfyre. No Blackfyre ever sat the Iron Throne, after all. That so-called royal house was an utter failure.

We don't know what convinced Strickland to go along with the plan but I'm not sure he has to know who Illyrio is - all he needs to know is that Toyne struck a very important deal with that guy, and that it would be best to go along with it if he wants to become/remain captain-general (or continue breathing).

And technically Aegon isn't a Blackfyre if he is Illyrio's son. He would be a Mopatis as House Blackfyre is extinguished in the male line.

I don't expect much pages will focus on the whole Blackfyre thing, though. They are pretty much done and nobody cares about them. Aegon's heritage and legitimacy will be called into question but I'm not sure why his enemies would try to paint him as Blackfyre pretender if the better way to discredit him is to claim he is just the son of some Lysene whore with no noble blood whatsoever - like this Gaemon Palehair child during the Dance (who may actually have been Aegon II's son considering that the child's life was spared by his administration, and he was accepted at court as the third Aegon's companion).

If Aegon ends up being painted as Blackfyre by any of his supporters - especially by his core followers (that is the Golden Company) his campaign is doomed. Dorne will not fight for a 'Blackfyre' posing as Elia's son, and pretty much no one in Westeros would cheer for anyone who actually entertains the notion of being descended from the doomed Blackfyre line. Those guys sucked hard.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I'd say that the Blackfyre angle/story may not necessarily be important in itself. What will become an important plot point is Aegon's true heritage - if he is not Rhaegar's son - and how the revelation of this (either in the inner circle or in the Realm as whole) will affect the relationships and outlooks of the few people.

I remember starting a thread shortly after the publication of ADwD asking the question how Aegon himself, Jon Connington, and Varys/Illyrio will react if this becomes an issue. What will Aegon do if he learns who his actual father is - say, by overhearing a conversation between Varys and Illyrio after they have taken KL? What is Illyrio's hope in that regard - does he want to tell his son the truth eventually, or not? What is Varys' opinion in all that. And so on. There is a lot of potential for a good story there. It is quite clear that Illyrio will soon join the guys in Westeros and play an important role there - he announced as much in ADwD. And I cannot see him not trying to do anything in his power to see his lad succeed. He may actually arrive with another company of sellswords. After all, without the dragons Aegon needs every sword he can get.

As hinted at in the OPs, I suspect Illyrio will deliver the aid of the three sisters. As the saga developed we learned of a trade war between Lys and Tyrosh. Myr was about to join Tyrosh, but curiously, the Archon of Tyrosh, the brother of the man who had been noted at the betrothal of Daenerys to Drogo, which had been brokered by Illyrio, offered terms to Lys to end the war. This appeared to be because the Golden Company, shockingly, had just broken its contract to fight for Myr. But the Archon of Tyrosh was involved in Doran Martell's plot to wed Arianne to Viserys. And while the George told us in an SSM that neither Illyrio nor Varys knew of that plot, we discovered that Doran had been waiting for Viserys to find an army in Essos, and we recalled that Illyrio had promised Viserys command of ten thousand Dothraki warriors in exchange for his sisters hand for Drogo.

Some members in the Golden Company may know or suspect the truth - although I think Myles Toyne died so that this truth would never come out.

What makes you say this?

Harry Strickland may suspect something - or not.

Harry's characterized as a pretty cautious fellow. I don't see him breaking a contract just because Toyne made a contract with sombody years ago if Harry doesn't even know who the other party is or what the substance of the contract is. He knows what he's about...

We came to raise up a king and queen who would lead us home to Westeros, but this Targaryen girl seems more intent on planting olive trees than in reclaiming her father's throne.

So, they came to raise a king and queen, but they abruptly abandoned that queen to seize her father's throne for Aegon.

It is quite clear that the Golden Company is as happy fighting for a Targaryen pretender than it would be fighting for a Blackfyre pretender - perhaps even more happy as they know/realize that the actual magical name is Targaryen, not Blackfyre. No Blackfyre ever sat the Iron Throne, after all. That so-called royal house was an utter failure.

We don't know what convinced Strickland to go along with the plan but I'm not sure he has to know who Illyrio is - all he needs to know is that Toyne struck a very important deal with that guy, and that it would be best to go along with it if he wants to become/remain captain-general (or continue breathing).

And technically Aegon isn't a Blackfyre if he is Illyrio's son. He would be a Mopatis as House Blackfyre is extinguished in the male line.

What's in a name? Is Sansa a Lannister? Is Tommen a Baratheon? Is Catelyn a Stark or a Tully or a bit of both? Is a girl no one? Truly?

I don't expect much pages will focus on the whole Blackfyre thing, though. They are pretty much done and nobody cares about them.

Oh, I'm pretty sure the Blackfyre loyalists do. The author conveys that through Eustace Osgrey, Arianne Martell, the folks at the traitors' tourney, Tyrion Lannister and Hoster Blackwood.

Aegon's heritage and legitimacy will be called into question but I'm not sure why his enemies would try to paint him as Blackfyre pretender if the better way to discredit him is to claim he is just the son of some Lysene whore with no noble blood whatsoever - like this Gaemon Palehair child during the Dance (who may actually have been Aegon II's son considering that the child's life was spared by his administration, and he was accepted at court as the third Aegon's companion).

If Aegon ends up being painted as Blackfyre by any of his supporters - especially by his core followers (that is the Golden Company) his campaign is doomed. Dorne will not fight for a 'Blackfyre' posing as Elia's son, and pretty much no one in Westeros would cheer for anyone who actually entertains the notion of being descended from the doomed Blackfyre line. Those guys sucked hard.

His campaign is doomed, but hush now, let's not aggravate Ser Eric.

[Ser Eric]

Oh, I see, you're offended by the suggestion that Aegon is something other than you believe him to be. That's cool. I was already spoiled about The Ned and the Young Wolf's death, but i remember fretting like an old lady when Arya went blind. The first thing i did when Dance was released was look for her POV. Do you expect Aegon to be the prince that was promised?

I'm not sure how you deduce that from my post...

You seem to be the one who's getting offended because someone doesn't like the theory you've posted as your subsequent posts show.

[Ser Eric]

No one gives two fucks about the Blackfyres or their aims, not even the sellsword company founded to achieve the said goals. Since Daemon died their presence can only be described as mildly irritating at best. The last known Blackfyre was annihilated almost a half a century ago and no one has heard a peep from them since then. They are the very definition of complete irrelevance. It's quite funny how not once in the epilogue does anyone in the small council bring up the peculiarity of the Golden Company supporting a Targaryen.

There is no end game for Aegon as a Blackfyre. He will live and die believing he is Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar. His impact on the story itself will remain the same regardless of his true identity. No one is going to be believe him either way and no one is going to tell him otherwise.

[Lord Varys]

LM,

I doubt that Illyrio has the power or the influence to deliver Aegon the help of three Free Cities. He is very influential - he bribed one of the triarchs in advance so Volantis would not oppose Daenerys but when the slave trade was disrupted the man didn't care about Illyrio. A Sealord of Braavos also witnessed the signing of the marriage contract between Viserys III and Arianne Martell yet it is very unlikely that Braavos will actually join Dorne in a coming war.

An Archon of Tyrosh (or his family) clearly was somewhat closely involved with the Targaryens/Martells/Illyrio but we don't really know if that's just courtesy among business partners or a sign that there is some deeper secret to all that. We don't even know whether the Archon whose ward Arianne should become to meet Viserys in secret is still in office. If that's not the case then the guy attending Dany's first meeting with Drogo was somebody else's brother.

Don't you think Myles Toyne's death is suspicious? Sure, he could have died in battle but we don't know that yet, and if you are involved in a plot with Varys and Illyrio I don't think first of 'natural death' if somebody dies...

Myles Toyne, Jon Connington, Illyrio Mopatis, and Varys himself were the four known attendants of that secret meeting in Lys where the details of the Aegon plan were made. The man could have become a risk. Connington knows only what he has to know but Toyne may have known much more.

Strickland certainly knows something about Illyrio's connection to the Golden Company but we don't know when he was told what. For instance, if he knows Illyrio is a descendant of Bittersteel does this also mean he has to know that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son? He may suspect that but I doubt anyone has ever told him.

And he actually stresses the fact that Toyne and not he himself made that contract, and it may be that he, as a descendant of an exiled Westerosi lord, wants to return to win gold and glory in the old homeland. After all, the Golden Company supposedly wants to go home. What convinced the Golden Company to go to Westeros actually was Aegon's speech and charisma. Strickland's men want to go, not he himself. He had to be convinced, and he is still somewhat reluctant after they took half the Stormlands and Griffin's Roost.

That man doesn't look somebody who is particularly interested in the Blackfyre cause.

Since my guess is that Illyrio isn't exactly the grandson of Blackfyre pretender but rather merely the descendant of Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre through a number of daughters - say, 2-3 - anyone from that line wouldn't have borne the name 'Blackfyre' since the beginning of the century. Bittersteel's daughter would have had whatever name Bittersteel gave his daughter(s), and they would then have married into some other family which means their daughters would have had their fathers' names. I don't like the idea that Serra is Varys' sister but even if that was the case she wouldn't have been a Blackfyre either as that would mean that Varys himself was a born Blackfyre and if that was the case then House Blackfyre would not be extinguished in the male line - not as long as Varys Blackfyre was still alive.

Aegon cannot hope to win anything with the help of Blackfyre loyalists remaining in Westeros. They are done. Apparently only some fools joined the banner of Daemon III, and Maelys the Moron never ever reached the shores of Westeros - and nothing suggests that 'Blackfyre loyalists' in Westeros joined his cause.

Sure, it may be that some houses who fought for the Blackfyres in the past may rally to the standard of Aegon VI Targaryen - but they will do so because they have their issues with the current Lannister/Tyrell regime, not because they think or believe a Blackfyre disguised as Targaryen has returned to Westeros. Varys' plan is based on the fact that the Realm ends up believing his golden boy is Prince Rhaegar's son not some obscure Blackfyre descendant. Not to mention that any friends/allies individual Golden Company members may still have in Westeros may actually join their cause because of the bonds of kinship between them - and the hopes to restore their ancient glory with the help of the Golden Company and this new pretender - rather than because the Blackfyre cause unites them.

And I don't think Aegon's campaign is doomed at all. The boy will win the Iron Throne and sit on it after very few battles in a very short time. Whether he'll be able to hold is another matter. Aegon VI seems to be modeled/paralleled to Daeron I who had a very fine plan to conquer Dorne and succeeded in it but failed to hold it thereafter (the whole 'I'm the only dragon you'll need' speech both Aegon VI and Daeron I gave their followers). His downfall will come during the Second Dance. But that won't be a war between Blackfyre and Targaryen - unless we have Aegon reveal the truth of his actual heritage publicly to the whole Realm after he himself finds out (I don't think that's very likely although not necessarily completely impossible) - but between nephew and aunt. I'm pretty sure the boy could save his reign and throne if he - or the people surrounding him - would be willing to compromise when Dany arrives. The whole Dornish angle may prove his undoing. Ironically it may be Doran and Arianne who ruin Aegon VI if they insist to oppose Daenerys after they have made up their minds about how and why Quentyn died...

[Lost Melnibonean]

I'm not sure how you deduce that from my post...

You seem to be the one who's getting offended because someone doesn't like the theory you've posted as your subsequent posts show.

I'm cool with it. See, here's a smiley face... :)

[In A Coat of Gold]

Harry Strickland did not want to break the contract. He did not want to meet Dany. He did not want to go to Westeros. Aegon and the other captains forced him into it.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Another thing. If Aegon is Illyrio's son, why would he send him to travel up and down the Rhoyne where pirates and Dothraki hordes lurk?

“Not by our septons.” Tyrion gestured at the fields. “Who dwells in these Flatlands of yours?” “Tillers and toilers, bound to the land. There are orchards, farms, mines … I own some such myself, though I seldom visit them. Why should I spend my days out

Illyrio owns lands across Essos. Why would he need to send the boy on a more dangerous path? As a part of his education. That doesn't sound like what a rich man would do to his only son and heir.

[Lost Melnibonean]

LM,

I doubt that Illyrio has the power or the influence to deliver Aegon the help of three Free Cities. He is very influential - he bribed one of the triarchs in advance so Volantis would not oppose Daenerys but when the slave trade was disrupted the man didn't care about Illyrio. A Sealord of Braavos also witnessed the signing of the marriage contract between Viserys III and Arianne Martell yet it is very unlikely that Braavos will actually join Dorne in a coming war.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule this out. A war between the followers of Red Ralloo and Him of Many Faces seems to be brewing. If Daenerys is supported by the former, the latter may at least aid Aegon. In any event the Iron Bank is already backing Stannis so, to borrow such an eloquent phrase from Ser Erin, tthe Braavosi do seem to give two shits as to who sits the Iron Throne.

An Archon of Tyrosh (or his family) clearly was somewhat closely involved with the Targaryens/Martells/Illyrio but we don't really know if that's just courtesy among business partners or a sign that there is some deeper secret to all that. We don't even know whether the Archon whose ward Arianne should become to meet Viserys in secret is still in office. If that's not the case then the guy attending Dany's first meeting with Drogo was somebody else's brother.

True. It could be coincidental. But why do you think Tyrosh offered terms to Lys after Myr, with the Golden Company, had agreed to enter the war on Tyrosh's side? Tyrosh should have expected victory.

Don't you think Myles Toyne's death is suspicious? Sure, he could have died in battle but we don't know that yet, and if you are involved in a plot with Varys and Illyrio I don't think first of 'natural death' if somebody dies...

Your conclusion is not unreasonable but it doesn't necessarily follow either.

Myles Toyne, Jon Connington, Illyrio Mopatis, and Varys himself were the four known attendants of that secret meeting in Lys where the details of the Aegon plan were made. The man could have become a risk. Connington knows only what he has to know but Toyne may have known much more.

No, we don't know who was where when. I think it far more likely that Illyrio, Varys and Myles worked wrote the contract in blood and then set up Jon as their stooge.

Strickland certainly knows something about Illyrio's connection to the Golden Company but we don't know when he was told what. For instance, if he knows Illyrio is a descendant of Bittersteel does this also mean he has to know that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son? He may suspect that but I doubt anyone has ever told him.

And he actually stresses the fact that Toyne and not he himself made that contract, and it may be that he, as a descendant of an exiled Westerosi lord, wants to return to win gold and glory in the old homeland. After all, the Golden Company supposedly wants to go home. What convinced the Golden Company to go to Westeros actually was Aegon's speech and charisma. Strickland's men want to go, not he himself. He had to be convinced, and he is still somewhat reluctant after they took half the Stormlands and Griffin's Roost.

That man doesn't look somebody who is particularly interested in the Blackfyre cause.

One of the key assumptions underlying the Blackfyre theory is that the high officers believe Aegon is Daemon Blackfyre's heir.

Since my guess is that Illyrio isn't exactly the grandson of Blackfyre pretender but rather merely the descendant of Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre through a number of daughters - say, 2-3 - anyone from that line wouldn't have borne the name 'Blackfyre' since the beginning of the century. Bittersteel's daughter would have had whatever name Bittersteel gave his daughter(s), and they would then have married into some other family which means their daughters would have had their fathers' names. I don't like the idea that Serra is Varys' sister but even if that was the case she wouldn't have been a Blackfyre either as that would mean that Varys himself was a born Blackfyre and if that was the case then House Blackfyre would not be extinguished in the male line - not as long as Varys Blackfyre was still alive.

Aegon cannot hope to win anything with the help of Blackfyre loyalists remaining in Westeros. They are done. Apparently only some fools joined the banner of Daemon III, and Maelys the Moron never ever reached the shores of Westeros - and nothing suggests that 'Blackfyre loyalists' in Westeros joined his cause.

Sure, it may be that some houses who fought for the Blackfyres in the past may rally to the standard of Aegon VI Targaryen - but they will do so because they have their issues with the current Lannister/Tyrell regime, not because they think or believe a Blackfyre disguised as Targaryen has returned to Westeros. Varys' plan is based on the fact that the Realm ends up believing his golden boy is Prince Rhaegar's son not some obscure Blackfyre descendant. Not to mention that any friends/allies individual Golden Company members may still have in Westeros may actually join their cause because of the bonds of kinship between them - and the hopes to restore their ancient glory with the help of the Golden Company and this new pretender - rather than because the Blackfyre cause unites them.

And I don't think Aegon's campaign is doomed at all. The boy will win the Iron Throne and sit on it after very few battles in a very short time. Whether he'll be able to hold is another matter. Aegon VI seems to be modeled/paralleled to Daeron I who had a very fine plan to conquer Dorne and succeeded in it but failed to hold it thereafter (the whole 'I'm the only dragon you'll need' speech both Aegon VI and Daeron I gave their followers). His downfall will come during the Second Dance. But that won't be a war between Blackfyre and Targaryen - unless we have Aegon reveal the truth of his actual heritage publicly to the whole Realm after he himself finds out (I don't think that's very likely although not necessarily completely impossible) - but between nephew and aunt. I'm pretty sure the boy could save his reign and throne if he - or the people surrounding him - would be willing to compromise when Dany arrives. The whole Dornish angle may prove his undoing. Ironically it may be Doran and Arianne who ruin Aegon VI if they insist to oppose Daenerys after they have made up their minds about how and why Quentyn died...

[Lost Melnibonean]

Harry Strickland did not want to break the contract. He did not want to meet Dany. He did not want to go to Westeros. Aegon and the other captains forced him into it.

Where was it suggested that Homeless Harry was forced into breaking the contract with Myr? And I didn't read about anybody twisting his arm. He just wants his elephants.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Another thing. If Aegon is Illyrio's son, why would he send him to travel up and down the Rhoyne where pirates and Dothraki hordes lurk?

Illyrio owns lands across Essos. Why would he need to send the boy on a more dangerous path? As a part of his education. That doesn't sound like what a rich man would do to his only son and heir.

So did the author make a point of showing how disappointed Illyrio was when he couldn't see his noble lad?

[draevan13]

He will live and die believing he is Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar. His impact on the story itself will remain the same regardless of his true identity. No one is going to be believe him either way and no one is going to tell him otherwise.

I realised something recently: let's say Aegon is a Blackfyre. Who would know the truth? Varys and/or Ilyrio. They're sure not going to tell anyone... so how would any other character know he's not a Targaryen? After all, Blackfyres are for all intents and purposes Targaryen in appearance. And more to the point, everyone thinks the Blackfyres are gone.

If Aegon says he's a Targ, looks like a Targ, acts like a Targ, and Rhaegar's staunchest companion Jon Connington says he's a Targ, I don't see why anyone would doubt it in Westeros. Maybe Daenerys would, but I can't see anyone else saying "No, Aegon's a Blackfyre, not a Targaryen!" And even if they do, they'd have no proof (unless GRRM writes some in). Even Tyrion, arguably one of if not the sharpest mind in the series, didn't suspect a thing.

I can see this happening: we the readers know he's a Blackfyre (for example, we see Varys of Ilyrio confessing it in a POV, or something along those lines), but no one in Westeros knows it, and go along believing he's a Targaryen :P

[Lady Blizzardborn]

No one gives two fucks about the Blackfyres or their aims, not even the sellsword company founded to achieve the said goals. Since Daemon died their presence can only be described as mildly irritating at best. The last known Blackfyre was annihilated almost a half a century ago and no one has heard a peep from them since then. They are the very definition of complete irrelevance. It's quite funny how not once in the epilogue does anyone in the small council bring up the peculiarity of the Golden Company supporting a Targaryen.

There is no end game for Aegon as a Blackfyre. He will live and die believing he is Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar. His impact on the story itself will remain the same regardless of his true identity. No one is going to be believe him either way and no one is going to tell him otherwise.

There's not really an end game for Aegon period. Dude is doomed. He'll sit the throne, but he's not going to last through what remains of the series, Targ or not.

[Lord Varys]

LM,

no idea where you see a war between (some) red priests and the Faceless Men. Melisandre and the Iron Bank are backing Stannis, Benerro and Moqorro are backing Daenerys. Nobody is backing Aegon. And the Faceless Men don't seem to have a problem with the red priests. The huge question mark in this whole thing is whether the Faceless Man in the Citadel is there because he is fulfilling a mission for somebody else (possibly Varys/Illyrio as Varys is the best candidate if we ask ourselves who has gotten Jaqen into the black cells) or whether he is there on a mission for the House of Black and White.

I'm simply not sure there is anything important going on with this whole trade war.

Jon Connington remembers talking to Varys and Illyrio in Toyne's presence at Lys when the plans were made. There it was decided that he should raise Aegon and fake his death with the drunk story. Connington may not have known everything, of course, but he is a very important member of the inner cabal. The only thing he may not know is Aegon's true heritage.

Varys and Illyrio would be completely stupid if they actually told the Golden Company leadership or anyone who does not need to know the truth about Aegon. Aegon can only win and keep the Iron Throne as a Targaryen king. If his true heritage (fat cheese mongers and whores) is discovered he should suffer a worse fate than Cersei's children (who are at least of noble birth on both sides). Varys and Illyrio can keep secrets, and thus they would keep this thing to themselves. Not to mention that most of the present-day Golden Company captains shouldn't give a fig about the Blackfyres or their legacy. Black Balaq, Gorys Edoryen, and Lysono Maar should not exactly have personal interests in Westeros or who rules there. And the same is true for all the bastard knights and those claiming to be descendants of ancient Westerosi lords from before the Blackfyre era (Mudd, Cole, Strong) - which means they are most likely nobodies claiming to be of noble birth. The Peakes and Jon Lothston may be who they claim they are but that doesn't mean they are all that Blackfyre friendly. The Peakes suffered their biggest blow when they rebelled against Maekar without Blackfyre involvement and one could say that Daemon the Younger's dreams actually got Gormon Peake killed. Any surviving Lothstons may have ended with the Golden Company after their downfall but nothing suggests that they were Blackfyre loyalists during the glorious days (first three Blackfyre rebellions).

TMK also makes it clear that there aren't all that many die-hard Blackfyre loyalists at Whitewalls. There are some lords there who were friends of Daemon I and rode with him but the conspirators also invited people who had their own issues with the Targaryens in general and Aerys I and Bloodraven in particular. Thus a lot of so-called 'Blackfyre loyalists' most likely never were loyalists - just ambitious people who wanted to use the Blackfyres for their own - that was also part of Eustace Osgrey's motivation, after all.