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What do you think Tywin Lannister was up to before Tyrion's kidnapping?


clair de lune

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I find his absence conspicuous in some places. That being said, I think it is right that we don't actually meet him until late in AGoT when Tyrion gets out of the Vale.



However, I have to wonder what he's up to during the first 2/3 of the novel. The first mention of Tywin in the Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj_uNZmcJaTddG9BVU5tRnJJTE5KcE5JRkFha1ZfNUE#gid=8)


is 10/16, 298 AC, which says that Tywin is amassing troops as Tyrion's trial occurs.



Three days later a raven arrives from Tywin to Cersei about Beric Dondarrion being sent out to kill Gregor Clegane.



By 12/25, Tywin has defeated the BWB at the Red Fork and making for Harrenhal (eventually he gets to the Inn of the Crossroads where Tyrion finds him).



So, what was he doing before this? I am not surprised he wouldn't have gone to Winterfell with the King. Seems to me, with Jon Arryn as Hand, Tywin was kind of shut out of the governance of the realm aside from his finances. BUT, the Tourney of the Hand seems like the kind of occasion he should have come to King's Landing. People came from all over the Seven Kingdoms (save the north, except for Ned's household guard). It seems interesting to me that he did not come.



How much correspondence do we believe occurred between Cersei/Jaime and Tywin before Tyrion's capture? Did he know war was coming? These are the questions to start off our discussion.


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For one thing, I don't think that he was shut out during Jon Arryn's time as Hand.



He's the most powerful man in Westeros still - with the mines of CR and him being the father-in-law to the current king.



Not going to Winterfell - well, I think he's not at KL at this time. And it's not *this* important for him to turn up in the North.



Not being present at the Tourney of the Hand - Gregor Clegane was there. So why bother to come himself?



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I think Tywin's somebody who's got a sharp mind for war. As commander-in-chief of his forces. The abduction of Tyrion "serves" him in a way.



Correspondence:



I don't think there was much correspondence. After all, Jaime serves in the KG, Cersei's got other things on her mind to attend to. And we got to take into account that ravens could get shot, die of other causes, etc. Besides, there's also quite a distance between KL, CR, Harrenhal, Winterfell and the other locations.


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Tywin never had a problem with Robert for 15 years. There was no reason for him to kill the king, and if did, would have done so earlier. The only motive Tywin might have had though was if he new about incest bastards.


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Tywin never had a problem with Robert for 15 years. There was no reason for him to kill the king, and if did, would have done so earlier. The only motive Tywin might have had though was if he new about incest bastards.

If Tywin ever found out about the incest, he wouldn't even think about it, not even in the privacy of his mind he would accept it.

I think it's more likely that he was aware of the danger Ned as hand posed against him. Ned openly disliked him for the murder of the Targaryen kids, and while Robert did as he pleased with Jon Arryn, Ned was a different matter. He was like a brother and he could have feared Ned "poisoning" the King against him, Cersei and Jaime. Little he knew Robert wasn't likely to hear anyone at all.

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If Tywin ever found out about the incest, he wouldn't even think about it, not even in the privacy of his mind he would accept it.

I think it's more likely that he was aware of the danger Ned as hand posed against him. Ned openly disliked him for the murder of the Targaryen kids, and while Robert did as he pleased with Jon Arryn, Ned was a different matter. He was like a brother and he could have feared Ned "poisoning" the King against him, Cersei and Jaime. Little he knew Robert wasn't likely to hear anyone at all.

In addition to his own calculations, Pycelle and Cersei might also have send him a letter or two. Not admitting the incest obviously but in other ways speaking of danger from the Starks. Or possibly about Robert being possibly influenced by Ned and being a danger.

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Surely he was up to no good, as always. Probably massacring houses for fun and stuff like that.




Or perhaps he was just ruling Westerlands and keeping his eye out for trouble. Things were going pretty good for him before it all went to hell.





Because he couldn't control Robert. At least not directly. But he could have controlled his grandson, a child, and be in charge of the King and Realm.




Tywin really should had killed Bobby right away then, before Joff went all rotten under his dysfunctional "parents".


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I don't think that Tywin was planning anything against Robert. Why would he? Robert was perfect for Tywin. He was stupid, strong and loved by everybody. Being stupid meant that he kept spending money on rubbish, which in turn made him more dependent on Tywin, which in turn increased Tywin's influence. Robert fought Tywin's wars (Greyjoy rebellion), he married the Tywin's daughter and by the time of Game of Thrones, Robert couldn't turn around without spotting a Lannister around him. Tywin had more problems controlling his offspring (Joffrey, the twins, Tyrion etc) then him.



Robert would have been a problem IF he found out of the incest. However by that time he was surrounded with so many Lannister men that he could be easily be disposed off. Robert may have been king but the one ruling Westeros was not at Kingslanding.


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If Tywin ever found out about the incest, he wouldn't even think about it, not even in the privacy of his mind he would accept it.

I think it's more likely that he was aware of the danger Ned as hand posed against him. Ned openly disliked him for the murder of the Targaryen kids, and while Robert did as he pleased with Jon Arryn, Ned was a different matter. He was like a brother and he could have feared Ned "poisoning" the King against him, Cersei and Jaime. Little he knew Robert wasn't likely to hear anyone at all.

I don't think that Tywin feared that. He sent Mountain to the Riverland in hopes of getting Ned go there, capture him and trade for Tyrion. All while Robert was still alive. Tywin certainly did not fear for Robert to defend Ned or/and punish Tywin for that. And if he didn't, then he probably didn't think that Ned was a threat to him overall.

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If Tywin ever found out about the incest, he wouldn't even think about it, not even in the privacy of his mind he would accept it.

I think it's more likely that he was aware of the danger Ned as hand posed against him. Ned openly disliked him for the murder of the Targaryen kids, and while Robert did as he pleased with Jon Arryn, Ned was a different matter. He was like a brother and he could have feared Ned "poisoning" the King against him, Cersei and Jaime. Little he knew Robert wasn't likely to hear anyone at all.

And yet.....the Lannisters were able to get rid of two hands of the king and a king so so easily. By the time Eddard became hand of the King, it was too late. Kingslanding had become the Lannisters nest, with loyal men appointed in most of the important roles. Eddard would have posed a bigger danger to Tywin if he remained in Winterfell rather then in Kingslanding.

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And yet.....the Lannisters were able to get rid of two hands of the king and a king so so easily. By the time Eddard became hand of the King, it was too late. Kingslanding had become the Lannisters nest, with loyal men appointed in most of the important roles. Eddard would have posed a bigger danger to Tywin if he remained in Winterfell rather then in Kingslanding.

Mmm, I do think that the Lannister influence was not quite that extreme. I mean, if it wasn't for the incest Lannisters would had been completely fine, but that coming out could had really collapsed their influence even while Ned was at KL. Let's say that Robert doesn't get gorged by a boar (which by itself wasn't perhaps the most likely thing to come out of hunting drunk, considering he had people like Selmy to guard him). Cersei really couldn't just order her guardsmen to murder the king so if Ned got to Robert before something discreet could be arranged for Robert's demise then Robert just acknowledging the rumours publicly would had been enough to collapse the Lannister influence permanently, even if he had died afterwards.

Robert was still the person from whom all the power was derived from, as long as he lived there was a chance.

Edit: them typos.

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Mmm, I do think that the Lannister influence was not quite that extreme. I mean, if it wasn't for the incest Lannisters would had been completely fine, but that coming out could had really collapsed their influence even while Ned was at KL. Let's say that Robert doesn't get gorged by a boar (which by itself wasn't perhaps the most likely thing to come out of hunting drunk, considering he had people like Selmy to guard him). Cersei really couldn't just order her guardsmen to murder the king so if Ned got to Robert before something discreet could be arranged for Robert's demise then Robert just acknowledging the rumours publicly would had been enough to collapse the Lannister influence permanently, even if he had died afterwards.

Robert was still the person from whom all the power was derived from, as long as he lived there was a chance.

Edit: them typos.

Lets analyse Robert's situation

a - The strongest member of his Kingsguard was Jamie Lannister. At that stage no one in the Kingsguard (+ king) was in a position to fight him off.

b- His cup bearer was Lancel Lannister and we all know that Robert drinks a lot

c- the grand meister was Pycelle another person in Lannister pockets

d- The gold cloaks were lead by Janos Slynt. A Lannister man

e- Joffrey seemed closer to his mother then to his father (for good reason)

Selmy is a good man. However as the Hound said bodyguards do not drink their master's cups and the trial between Robert's wine and his mouth was all Lannister's monopoly.

Robert, Arryn and Eddard ruled until they crossed swords with the Lannister. Once they became 'problematic' they were quickly tossed off with little to no effort. Robert was stupid but had more brains then his two friends put together and understood the situation well. There's a reason why Robert didn't ordered Jamie's capture after he hurt Eddard and didn't ordered Gregor Clegane to be arrested. As said before he might as well be the king but the control of Westeros was ruled elsewhere.

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Lets analyse Robert's situation

a - The strongest member of his Kingsguard was Jamie Lannister. At that stage no one in the Kingsguard (+ king) was in a position to fight him off.

b- His cup bearer was Lancel Lannister and we all know that Robert drinks a lot

c- the grand meister was Pycelle another person in Lannister pockets

d- The gold cloaks were lead by Janos Slynt. A Lannister man

e- Joffrey seemed closer to his mother then to his father (for good reason)

Selmy is a good man. However as the Hound said bodyguards do not drink their master's cups and the trial between Robert's wine and his mouth was all Lannister's monopoly.

Robert, Arryn and Eddard ruled until they crossed swords with the Lannister. Once they became 'problematic' they were quickly tossed off with little to no effort. Robert was stupid but had more brains then his two friends put together and understood the situation well. There's a reason why Robert didn't ordered Jamie's capture after he hurt Eddard and didn't ordered Gregor Clegane to be arrested. As said before he might as well be the king but the control of Westeros was ruled elsewhere.

If Robert Baratheon found out about his wife's incense then her, Jamie, the children would have been executed and Tywin Lannister would have been crushed like a bug in a "war".

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My best guess would be he was at the Rock or elsewhere in the Westerlands/Close to Riverlands, preparing to march on Riverrun or King's Landing due to the... situation growing there with Ned and Cersei.


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Lets analyse Robert's situation

a - The strongest member of his Kingsguard was Jamie Lannister. At that stage no one in the Kingsguard (+ king) was in a position to fight him off.

On the other hand Barrista+any other KG could had beaten Jaime. He is just one man, he'd lose 3 on 1 to anyone competent, and Robert surely had hundreds of knights.

b- His cup bearer was Lancel Lannister and we all know that Robert drinks a lot

True, Lancel could had poisoned him discreetly. The point is that he was not ordered to poison him during the hunt, so if Robert had made it back to KL it might had been too late for him to do anything about it (as he can't receive orders on a mobile phone or anything).

c- the grand meister was Pycelle another person in Lannister pockets

He'd need an opportunity to do something to Bob too though. If we assume Ned gets to him right when Bob got back, there'd be no time. Cersei can't just order Pycelle to go and pour poison down Bob's throat.

d- The gold cloaks were lead by Janos Slynt. A Lannister man

Actually he seemed to be a Baelish man. And he couldn't act against Robert either, the whole legitimacy of the regime comes from Robert '-_-

e- Joffrey seemed closer to his mother then to his father (for good reason)

Uh, yes? Are you implying the crown prince will either murder his father or order the guards who wont do it to do it?

Selmy is a good man. However as the Hound said bodyguards do not drink their master's cups and the trial between Robert's wine and his mouth was all Lannister's monopoly.

Robert, Arryn and Eddard ruled until they crossed swords with the Lannister. Once they became 'problematic' they were quickly tossed off with little to no effort. Robert was stupid but had more brains then his two friends put together and understood the situation well. There's a reason why Robert didn't ordered Jamie's capture after he hurt Eddard and didn't ordered Gregor Clegane to be arrested. As said before he might as well be the king but the control of Westeros was ruled elsewhere.

That reason is: Robert had no spine. On the other hand there is a difference between "Jaime and Ned having a fight" and "My wife has been fucking her brother, I've been cuckolded". If you seriously think Robert would not had acted swiftly in that case, then I don't even.

If it was not for the incest the Lannister domination would had remained pretty absolute. The incest on the other hand left a big chink in that armor that could had been used if Robert had not died so suddenly.

If Robert Baratheon found out about his wife's incense then her, Jamie, the children would have been executed and Tywin Lannister would have been crushed like a bug in a "war".

Interesting question whether Tywin would had actually started a war he'd know he'd lose. On the other hand if he were all detached and realpolitik he'd prolly decide aganst it and on the other hand the pride of the Lannisters has been injured.

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I find his absence conspicuous in some places. That being said, I think it is right that we don't actually meet him until late in AGoT when Tyrion gets out of the Vale.

However, I have to wonder what he's up to during the first 2/3 of the novel. The first mention of Tywin in the Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj_uNZmcJaTddG9BVU5tRnJJTE5KcE5JRkFha1ZfNUE#gid=8)

is 10/16, 298 AC, which says that Tywin is amassing troops as Tyrion's trial occurs.

Three days later a raven arrives from Tywin to Cersei about Beric Dondarrion being sent out to kill Gregor Clegane.

By 12/25, Tywin has defeated the BWB at the Red Fork and making for Harrenhal (eventually he gets to the Inn of the Crossroads where Tyrion finds him).

So, what was he doing before this? I am not surprised he wouldn't have gone to Winterfell with the King. Seems to me, with Jon Arryn as Hand, Tywin was kind of shut out of the governance of the realm aside from his finances. BUT, the Tourney of the Hand seems like the kind of occasion he should have come to King's Landing. People came from all over the Seven Kingdoms (save the north, except for Ned's household guard). It seems interesting to me that he did not come.

How much correspondence do we believe occurred between Cersei/Jaime and Tywin before Tyrion's capture? Did he know war was coming? These are the questions to start off our discussion.

Tywin did not show up for the Tourney of the Hand, the same as Mace, Balon, Doran, Lysa, Hoster/Edmure did not. They don't have to, and aside from maybe Edmure, non of them is really going to take part in it.

Ned and Renly are already there as part of thier job in the Small Couincil. Tywin has his own lands to govern.

Tyrion is taken by Cat, word reaches Tywin, he starts gathering his men and mercenaries. Edmure notices, and starts to gather his own host, and sends envoys to Tywin to demand his intent, while fully backing his sister despite her not even bothering to send a postcard with a quick "hi, long time no see, kids are ok (mostly, Bran is a cripple now), you should come visit sometime. PS: kidnapped Tyrion on the King's Road in dad's name and with dad's troops, so pass my love to dad".

At this point Tywin sends Gregor to raid. His intent his read by Ned as trying to break up the Riverlords to protect thier lands, but Tywin later explains that he meant for Ned himself to come and kill Gregor, so Tywin could capture him and trade him for Tyrion. He does'nt need to have the Riverlords to go look for thier own lands, he outnumbers them 2-1 and Hoster trusts the king so he orders his men and Edmure to stand down with a counter raid and sends his men home, and envoys to the king. Tywin sends a letter where he is angry that Ned "dares" to send men to kill his man Gregor, but he is more angry that Ned is not coming himself. IMHO, that letter also has another part that Pycelle does not mention, where Tywin orders Cersei to kill Robert, since Tywin sees war is inevitable. Ned assumes he has the North, Riverlands and the Stormlands, Tywin wants to strike fast at the Riverlands, remove the threat of the Crownlands and the Stormlands by placing them in the hands of his grandson, and finish things before the North could send an army south.

Before Tyrion was kidnapped? Tywin was most likely calculating the interest on the latest loan for the crown to pay for this foolish tourney, and fucking some whore.

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