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Why is fantasy more popular than science-fiction?


Krafus

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None of these authors are anywhere near as popular as Feist, Goodkind or Eddings, let alone Jordan or Pratchett. I understand Weber has sold well in the USA, but even so I'd be surprised if he'd sold any more books than GRRM, as his profile is very low by comparison.

Actually, David Weber's last two (or three) books have charted on the New York Times Lists (at least according to the covers). If you've got numbers that say otherwise, I'll listen. But from what I've seen he's a bestselling author and is pretty popular here in the US and from what I understand in the UK and Germany (of all places). I'd say he has at least the profile and sales of a Goodkind or Martin (not really familiar with Feist). And another thing to consider is that he's been only going up, not down.

I know David Drake has sold a lot more than you'd think. But unlike some it seems like it's more a steady sales for a long time rather than a strong surge of sales and a drop off. A lot of his works are still in print, some of them after more than a decade which is a pretty good run for a perennially paperback author.

You are definitely right on Flint. He had a couple of high selling books but seems to have lost the popularity. Still a good seller but definitely down.

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I respect Martin, he's paid his dues as a writer. But I don't think he is entirely right about the state of science fiction. I don't see the evidence out there for a major decline in science fiction over all.

Fair enough, but be aware that it's not something that George is alone in saying. At Worldcon - which is after all the World Science Fiction Convention ;) - this year, I heard many sci-fi authors, fans, panellists and others treat it as an accepted (and uncontroversial) fact that fantasy sold better than sci-fi and heard discussions on why that is. Like others in this thread, I was not aware that anyone disagreed.

In fact I'm reminded of the prediction that the spy genre would die off after the end of the Cold War, a lot of big name authors of the genre like John LeCarre were predicting it was dead. But after a lull of a few years things bounced back and as a matter of fact he started writing spy novels again.

I don't think genres ever really die off. But is spy fiction as popular and does it sell as well as it did? No. And the same can be said of sci-fi.

ETA - which is not saying that the genre is dead, just reduced.

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I'm interested in this.

Personally, I've always been of the opinion that it was quasi-cyclic in nature, with sci-fi/fantasy as a linked field, with each half dominating in alternation.

What was Alice in Wonderland if not a fantasy novel? True, children's stories, but the latter part of the 19th century saw a rise in "fantastic" children's literature, while Wells and Verne began writing at the end of this period.

Maybe mystery/thrillers belong in there as well, maybe it's a three-sided field. I've never stopped to think too much on that aspect- I always figured that science fiction was strong when the world was more receptive and movies were more likely to be about the fantastic or thrilling (so many "Science Fiction" films are just re-labelled monster movies, and remember your epic "historicals"), then science fiction went mainstream (Trek and Wars) and fantasy assumed the counter-culture crown (Tolkien, Earthsea, etc.).

Short version: To me, it always seemed our kids will be into science fiction because it's real, not this escapism crud mom and pop like. Maybe our grandkids. But unlike Westerns, I don't see scifi ever fading away.

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Eh, I don't see Fictionpress as anything other than a fansite. It certainly doesn't touch my radar. I've never read a story on it, and I don't consider myself lacking anything.

IOW, you haven't established that site's importance.

The Fanfiction.net site is all about fanfiction. Fictionpress deals in original fiction. If I may ask, why do you consider it unimportant? (And what does IOW mean?)

Now maybe if you were talking television, that might be convincing, but that is clearly in favor of Science Fiction. Battlestar Galactica? Sci-Fi. Lost. Very Sci-Fi, even if not Space Sci-Fi. Dr. Who? Sci-Fi. Jericho? Post-Apoc is usually Sci-Fi, though I suppose it could go another direction. Heroes? It seems to be going Sci-Fi to me. Smallville? Very Sci-Fi to me in its presentation.

Can't really think of any current Fantasy series on Network TV. Several children's cartoons, sure, but that's something different.

And that was part of my initial theories - that the fact that sci-fi has been widely available on tv for decades might have contributed to its decline in the book medium. Why bother with books sometimes full of complicated technical terms when you have a lot of sci-fi on tv and can easily buy it on VHS or (more likely nowadays) DVD?

Ahem, that wasn't my suggestion, I didn't even mention it, it was actually Lord Stormbringer who brought that up. I merely offered an explanation as to why he might have reacted that way. I figured from the first post though, that you simply didn't know, and that's why I replied with my comment about this being nothing new.

Oops. :blush: Sorry. In arguing with several people at once, I'm afraid I lost track of exactly who said what.

Yes, but I hope you understand why some people might be a little on edge about it. It's like R+L=J is here, a subject that to some people has been done to death.

Yeah, I understand (especially since I'm one of those who consider R+L=J to have been discussed to death).

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I respect Martin, he's paid his dues as a writer. But I don't think he is entirely right about the state of science fiction. I don't see the evidence out there for a major decline in science fiction over all. In fact I'm reminded of the prediction that the spy genre would die off after the end of the Cold War, a lot of big name authors of the genre like John LeCarre were predicting it was dead. But after a lull of a few years things bounced back and as a matter of fact he started writing spy novels again.

Hmm... According to Wikipedia, spy fiction did have have a lull after the Cold War, but was revived by 9/11.

There are a number of publishers, like my favorite Baen, that are expanding their science fiction lines and signing new authors to new series. Baen, Del Rye, and Tor all publish a goodly amount of science fiction with no sign of abandoning the genre.

Interesting, thanks for the info. So you're arguing that sci-fi literature is actually expanding rather than being on a decline?

Fair enough but I warn you if you come in making dumb arguements, you'll get torn a new you know what. I spend a fair amount of time stardestroyer.net's bulletin board, spacebattles.com's forums, ocassionally put in at Baen's Bar, and a few others that I won't mention because they're rather private about membership. Most of them are diversified forums but have a whole lot of science fiction content and started out as purely sci-fi sites, obviously.

Heh, I actually lurk practically daily at stardestroyer.net and spacebattles.com.

David Weber's works generally are that popular. Some of David Drake's works have. Eric Flint has had some good selling books but tends to be hit and miss. All of them post regularly at the Baen's Bar forum and I'm sure there are dedicated forums though I've never really looked.

The Baen Free Library (here) has a lot those particular author's works for free download.

And Joe Buckley's site maintains an archive (here) of the Baen Free CDs which you can also download. Both are completely legal, completely free open distributions of their work.

Thanks for those suggestions, I'll look them up.

Locus has an overview of monthly bestsellers. At first I thought it was only in their actual magazines, but it's on the site as well:

http://www.locusmag.com/2006/Issues/10LocusBestsellers.html

On the left you can click on all the previous months.

Thanks for that link, Calibandar, it's very interesting. Hmm, if a MechWarrior book can make the list on gaming-related fiction, that whole genre can't be selling much (and I say this as a MechWarrior fan). :(

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The Fanfiction.net site is all about fanfiction. Fictionpress deals in original fiction.

Fansite does not equal fanfiction. Fictionpress can still be a fansite without producing fanfiction.

If I may ask, why do you consider it unimportant? (And what does IOW mean?)

IOW=In Other Words, and as I said earlier:

"It certainly doesn't touch my radar. I've never read a story on it, and I don't consider myself lacking anything."

Perhaps I should explain. Fictionpress has no importance for me, to me, it's just one more community on the internet. It may seem petty of me, but the burden of establishing its importance is on you in this discussion. Show how Fictionpress has shaped the real world.

(and that's not even getting into its representativeness of the real world, as I don't know whether or not it has got a statistical analysis of its community. Even if it did though, it shouldn't be your only source).

And that was part of my initial theories - that the fact that sci-fi has been widely available on tv for decades might have contributed to its decline in the book medium. Why bother with books sometimes full of complicated technical terms when you have a lot of sci-fi on tv and can easily buy it on VHS or (more likely nowadays) DVD?

Of course, then you have to examine the sales of the material related to them, and if you're looking at the internet prescence, the communities related to them.

Oops. :blush: Sorry. In arguing with several people at once, I'm afraid I lost track of exactly who said what.

Indeed, it can be hard to keep track of things, I forgive you.

Yeah, I understand (especially since I'm one of those who consider R+L=J to have been discussed to death).

and now you know, and knowing is half the battle.

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Fansite does not equal fanfiction. Fictionpress can still be a fansite without producing fanfiction.

IOW=In Other Words, and as I said earlier:

"It certainly doesn't touch my radar. I've never read a story on it, and I don't consider myself lacking anything."

Perhaps I should explain. Fictionpress has no importance for me, to me, it's just one more community on the internet. It may seem petty of me, but the burden of establishing its importance is on you in this discussion. Show how Fictionpress has shaped the real world.

I'm afraid I don't really follow. Show how a website has "shaped the real world"? Is there any website that can make that claim? And I'm not sure what you mean by "importance" in this context. I've already stated why I believe Fictionpress is important (see paragraph below).

(and that's not even getting into its representativeness of the real world, as I don't know whether or not it has got a statistical analysis of its community. Even if it did though, it shouldn't be your only source).

And it is not. I also mentioned the sffworld website's discussion forum, where posts for fantasy outnumber those for sci-fi by 5 to 1, which is similar to Fictionpress's 4 1/2 to 1 ratio of fantasy stories to sci-fi stories. Regardless of the qualities of stories (and accompanying reviews) on Fictionpress, I believe it is representative of relative interest in fantasy and sci-fi by today's youth. Yes, Fictionpress is only one website. But it's also a very large one, with contributers from around the world. And then there's all the posts by others in this thread, pointing out the decline of original written sci-fi (I say original to exclude tie-ins to franchises like Star Wars and Star Trek).

Of course, then you have to examine the sales of the material related to them, and if you're looking at the internet prescence, the communities related to them.

The tie-in novels for Star Wars and Star Trek seem to be doing very well, at least if one looks at Amazon sales ranks, number of reviews, and the Locus lists (thanks to the link provided by Calibandar). I don't know about the activity of Star Trek communities, but I can state that Star Wars communities are alive and well. Which is why I wonder if all those tie-ins of tv- or movie-related franchises might have diverted readers who otherwise would have picked up original sci-fi books.

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Actually, David Weber's last two (or three) books have charted on the New York Times Lists (at least according to the covers). If you've got numbers that say otherwise, I'll listen. But from what I've seen he's a bestselling author and is pretty popular here in the US and from what I understand in the UK and Germany (of all places). I'd say he has at least the profile and sales of a Goodkind or Martin (not really familiar with Feist). And another thing to consider is that he's been only going up, not down.

It would be hard for Weber to be popular in the UK when he has no UK publishing deal (that I can discover). Orbit (IIRC) released the first four Honour Harrington books a few years ago and I believe they tanked, despite pretty good reviews and promotion. Thus Weber's profile in the UK is next to non-existent. As for America, I cannot say. He could have sold as many as GRRM, unlikely to have reached Goodkind's level (and that's the 10-15 million suggested by his publishers, not the fictional number) and probably not Feist's (who has sold more than any US fantasy author other than Jordan and any UK fantasy author other than Rowling and Pratchett, according to his publishers).

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I'm afraid I don't really follow. Show how a website has "shaped the real world"? Is there any website that can make that claim?

Let's see...Amazon, Ebay, Myspace, Wikipedia, Yahoo, Google, AOL, would make my shortlist, and I could make a case for the concept of Torrents and the fan prescence of Snakes on a Plane. There are loads more influential sites than Fictionpress.

And I'm not sure what you mean by "importance" in this context. I've already stated why I believe Fictionpress is important (see paragraph below).

No, you didn't. All you established was its character, or more precisely, your observations about it. Even then I am doubtful about some of the claims. How do you know that it has contributors from around the world? How do you know they represent today's youth? What is the geographical breakdown of the site's members? What are the age ranges? How do they relate to the world at large, let alone the reading world?

If you can truly answer that, I'd be quite surprised. And yes, I realize that that sort of thing is demanding, and exhaustive, but accurate statistical analysis requires details.

But heck, just look at the number of stories for Romance. Less than fantasy, right? maybe 75%? Do you think that's an accurate representation of the book market?

(And BTW, sffworld is yet another site whose importance has not yet been established, and I won't even get into the issue of a forum's possible population bias.)

If you don't want to do it, that's fine with me, but I hope it does help you realize that your observations are highly limited, and as such, may be quite distorted.

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Let's see...Amazon, Ebay, Myspace, Wikipedia, Yahoo, Google, AOL, would make my shortlist, and I could make a case for the concept of Torrents and the fan prescence of Snakes on a Plane. There are loads more influential sites than Fictionpress.

Amazon, eh? In that case, would you be willing to grant that the sales ranks on Amazon and the number of reviews for a given book are valid indicators of popularity?

No, you didn't. All you established was its character, or more precisely, your observations about it. Even then I am doubtful about some of the claims. How do you know that it has contributors from around the world? How do you know they represent today's youth? What is the geographical breakdown of the site's members? What are the age ranges? How do they relate to the world at large, let alone the reading world?

I know it has contributors from around the world because I've read more than a few authors' profiles over the years I've visited it, and authors sometimes list the country they come from. Not all that often, true, but over time I've seen many countries represented. As to knowing they represent today's youth, it's because of the age of the authors - which is mentioned in profiles far more often than country of origin. There's a lot of contributors in the 15-20 age range, at least for fantasy stories.

But heck, just look at the number of stories for Romance. Less than fantasy, right? maybe 75%? Do you think that's an accurate representation of the book market?

Of the book market? No. Of what genres today's youth are interested in? Yes. And this is how I believe they relate to the reading world - I believe they're a fair representation of what genres teenagers and young adults are interested in nowadays.

(And BTW, sffworld is yet another site whose importance has not yet been established, and I won't even get into the issue of a forum's possible population bias.)

The sffworld forums are frequented by authors and would-be authors, industry professionnals, and, generally, people who seem quite well-read and knowledgeable about books and writing. In fact, there's a forum dedicated to writing that has more posts than the sci-fi forum.

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Amazon, eh? In that case, would you be willing to grant that the sales ranks on Amazon and the number of reviews for a given book are valid indicators of popularity?

Sales? Sure. They'd be a valuable component in understanding the book trade. But only *one* component. You should also look at their competitors, at their foriegn language distrubutions, and the history over time. And that would really take a lot more study than you might think.

Reviews? Hell no. Anybody can choose to write reviews. Or not. All it would take is one publisher hiring a group to astroturf their books and your whole vision is skewed.

I know it has contributors from around the world because I've read more than a few authors' profiles over the years I've visited it, and authors sometimes list the country they come from. Not all that often, true, but over time I've seen many countries represented.

So, let's see, you yourself admit that authors don't always lis tthe country they come from? Think about what you're saying.

As to knowing they represent today's youth, it's because of the age of the authors - which is mentioned in profiles far more often than country of origin. There's a lot of contributors in the 15-20 age range, at least for fantasy stories.

But do you have any real numbers on that, instead of just your impressions? How many of the contributors are in that 15-20 range, versus the real-world population? What is the economic status of those posters?

Of the book market? Not. Of what genres today's youth are interested in? Yes. And this is how I believe they relate to the reading world - I believe they're a fair representation of what genres teenagers and young adults are interested in nowadays.

And I don't believe you've established that, it's just your personal opinion. Which ain't all that valuable, sorry to say, since AFAIK, you're not a perfect observer, let alone a perfect analyst.

The sffworld forums are frequented by authors and would-be authors, industry professionnals, and, generally, people who seem quite well-read and knowledgeable about books and writing. In fact, there's a forum dedicated to writing that has more posts than the sci-fi forum.

So? How many authors/industry professionals are there? What % are they of the real-world population? And actually, that you say the people their seem quite well-read and knowledgable makes them less likely to be representative than not.

YMDDV.

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Scalzi has an interesting take on the entertining versus hard science in popular SF in his blog. His main target is Star Wars, which he goes after with a vengeance.

Star Wars is not entertainment. Star Wars is George Lucas masturbating to a picture of Joseph Campbell and conning billions of people into watching the money shot.
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Dude, Krafus, you're not the troll here. Ignore the ones who are.

Disclaimer: Lord Stormbringer & Mr. Manticore: The views and opinions expressed in the following post are mine and mine alone, and do not in any way make claim to representing any objective truth (though they will in fact be just that) or the sentiment of the majority. People with serious sticks up their arses are encouraged to not read shit into shit that isn't shit, and go elsewhere to spout their vitriolic vinegar and regurgitated ramblings.

Speaking from my own preference, I think the SF genre lends itself better to the motion picture medium, and conversely, that the fantasy genre comes to its own in books rather than on the silver screen.

Maybe it's just me, but some of the things I've read in this thread spurred my mind onwards. In a movie, you don't have to spend an improportionate amount of time or space describing how futuristic and alien objects and designs look. One look at the screen will tell you. Science Fiction is also, inherently, I would argue, concerned with science. It's basically what separates it from other fiction. But science isn't accessible, and I contest that, for a reader, trying to imagine something that has never existed will be harder and more of an effort than imagining things that have existed, either in the real history of the world or in folklore, legends and myths.

I enjoy watching Babylon 5, Star Wars, I, Robot etc., but I would put down the books within the minute (as well as any other SF books). Reading about spaceships and lasers and robots just doesn't appeal to me. In a similar way, I often find that the majestic scenery, the epic battles and the sprawling cities I've imagined while reading fantasy books aren't done justice when I've seen them in movies.

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Scalzi has an interesting take on the entertining versus hard science in popular SF in his blog. His main target is Star Wars, which he goes after with a vengeance.

Heh, and yet every Tom, Dick and Harry in the world knows 'something' about Star Wars whilst Scalzi probably has fans numbering in three figures.

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There is more to go on than the number and activity of discussion boards dedicated to each subgenre -- let's not forget the decline in the subscriptions to the Big Three SF magazines. Hanging around the Asimov's, etc forums, I see a lot of doom and gloom, "how can we save science fiction/the magazines", etc.

Also, yes, this is an old topic -- but that doesn't make it any less worthy. How many people still revisit Sandor, Brienne, R+L=J, etc? :)

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Sales? Sure. They'd be a valuable component in understanding the book trade. But only *one* component. You should also look at their competitors, at their foriegn language distrubutions, and the history over time. And that would really take a lot more study than you might think.

Reviews? Hell no. Anybody can choose to write reviews. Or not. All it would take is one publisher hiring a group to astroturf their books and your whole vision is skewed.

Well, then, we'll just have to agree to disagree. There might be false reviews on Amazon, but unless you can prove they constitute a substantial percentage of all the reviews, I maintain they're a valid indicator of popularity.

So, let's see, you yourself admit that authors don't always lis tthe country they come from? Think about what you're saying.

But do you have any real numbers on that, instead of just your impressions? How many of the contributors are in that 15-20 range, versus the real-world population? What is the economic status of those posters?

And I don't believe you've established that, it's just your personal opinion. Which ain't all that valuable, sorry to say, since AFAIK, you're not a perfect observer, let alone a perfect analyst.

So? How many authors/industry professionals are there? What % are they of the real-world population? And actually, that you say the people their seem quite well-read and knowledgable makes them less likely to be representative than not.

YMDDV.

No, I didn't jot down age numbers and countries of origin. Or calculate exact percentages of this or that. Since you're unwilling to accept people's observations and theories as valid bases for discussion - which must leave you out of a lot of threads about ASOIAF here on this board - I don't see the need to pursue this argument. Especially since it seems that even if I did go to the trouble of coming up with stats, you'd dismiss a number of them because the people they represent seem too well-read and knowledgeable.

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