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[BOOK and SHOW SPOILERS] So what is Littlefinger's game now?


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Petyr's plan is to make ties with as many powerful houses as possible so he will end up on the Iron Throne himself; make no mistake, that is his ulterior motive.

He wants Roose to like him, that is why he is giving him Sansa. Meanwhile he wants Cersei to give him the North so he can marry Sansa (unknowing of the true character of Ramsay). As soon as he has that in writing he will team up with the Tyrells to betray Cersei. Remember, he did help Olenna kill Joffrey. He is probably also betting on Stannis defeating the Boltons so he can take Sansa as his wife. After that I reckon he will find someone to put House Tyrell down (Baratheon or Martell maybe?) but we will see if that happens.

Personally I think he will eventually meet the Curse of Harrenhall, probably by hand of Sansa (a fate that will fall on Roose as well).

His crony literally just buried House Tyrell.

But they probably wont mention that.

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I agree that TV-LF's plans make no sense. What would have happened is the moment he and Sansa showed up in Moat Cailin, the Real Roose's men would have seized them, flayed him, and sent Sansa and a Littlefinger-skin handbag to Cersei as a present (along with a note asking for some help against Stannis). Of course, the Real Littlefinger would have predicted this and never made the ridiculous offer in the first place. The idea that this would remain hidden from Cersei is equally idiotic. There are plenty of people in the north with an axe to grind with the Boltons, and any of them would strong incentives to let the crown know what was going on in Winterfell. It takes ravens 3-4 days to fly from the North to King's Landing. Littlefinger would have needed a month. Episode-6 Cersei should have known what LF did and put his head on a pike.



However, like I said earlier, this is water under the bridge. The directors wanted to move multiple characters together, and they endured a few plot holes to do it. I can understand that, even if it is annoying.

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LF had been creating chaos from the start! I remember in one episode when he was talking to Ros and said:

"I learnt that I'll never win. Not that way. That's their game, their rules. I'm not going to fight them: I'm going to fuck them"

and another scene he mentions

"Chaos is a ladder"

LF knows he can't win with armies and wars, he creates chaos between the more powerful houses and then comes out on top with barely having to lift a finger.

I believe he's using Stannis, the Boltons, the Lannisters and the Vale to create chaos and in the end he'll get the North and possibly Sansa no matter which side wins.

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I think one of the themes of the overall story of the show is how fragile power really is. You don't simply sieze power. As we can see with Tommen simply sitting the throne isn't power. And keeping power isn't as simple as ruling justly and honorably. I think Littlefinger understands these nuances much better than most. He simply doesn't have the name of a great house that would give him the cachet that Tywin, or Olenna, or Doran has.


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All I know for certain is he's lying to everyone. He isn't taking the Knights of the Vale north to fight what's left after Stannis and Roose face off. He's just telling Cersei what she wants to hear. Cersei is still one of his top targets. He probably hates her more than anyone left living, plus a joint Lannister/Arryn/Royce host marching together? Seriously? The Knights of the Vale would more likely than not murder Kevan and slaughter the Lannister army while they sleep, then turn toward King's Landing instead. He'll probably return, with his little personal guard, then declare himself an ally to whoever won and promise them the Vale as they march south.



The problem for him at that point is there's no way he's going to play Stannis. Not only is he Stannis, but Melisandre would see him coming a mile away besides.


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I think Littlefinger is setting up what TV Tropes refers to as a Xanatos Gambit: a scenario where no matter what happens, he wins. Let's break it down, at least in terms of how it's been presented to date:



Outcome 1 - Stannis Defeats the Boltons: Stannis names Sansa Wardeness of the North in recognition of her father's loyalty. Littlefinger heads back to Winterfell and marries Sansa. Even if Cersei beats Stannis, she won't be able to do anything against the North from KL. Littlefinger wins.



Outcome 2 - The Boltons Defeat Stannis: Sansa wraps Ramsay around her little finger, and, failing that, Littlefinger rides to Sansa's rescue with the knights of the Vale to take out the weakened Boltons and marry a grateful Sansa. Littlefinger wins.



Outcome 3 - The Boltons and Stannis Wipe Each Other Out - Littlefinger rides in with the knights of the Vale, marries Sansa, and set up shop as Warden of the North. Littlefinger wins.



As for Littlefinger promising Sansa Stark's head, we know from what he told Roose that 1) he knows Cersei can't do shit from KL if he doublecrosses her at Winterfell and 2) he's counting on Cersei's downfall and is assuming that Margaery will accord Sansa a full pardon.



The big flaw in Littlefinger's plan is that he's assuming Sansa will fall into his arms when he rescues her from an unwanted marriage. I'm guessing that he'll find her less than grateful that he persuaded her to marry an abusive psychopath and more than skeptical of his claim that he didn't know about Ramsay. The other big flaw in Littlefinger's plan is that he's assuming Sansa is the last of the Starks, which she isn't.


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LF is planning to ride into Winterfell like Sansa's knight in shining armour so she is eternally grateful to him and he can set her up as his ally in the north (and future wife) while he takes over the rest of Westeros. He will tell the vale lords that his real reason for marching is to save Sansa. Also LF is gambling on Cercei losing power soon.

However, Sansa will escape before the battle of ice and probably end up with Stannis. Roose will appear to win the battle only to be backstabbed by LF. Then Stannis will attack, having faked his defeat, and Sansa will be installed in Winterfell properly. I think LF will probably leaves for the south before Stannis attacks as I don't see him getting his head chopped off until the last season. Maybe Theon advises Stannis to attack Winterfell once the main force has left, like he did.

I agree that TV-LF's plans make no sense. What would have happened is the moment he and Sansa showed up in Moat Cailin, the Real Roose's men would have seized them, flayed him, and sent Sansa and a Littlefinger-skin handbag to Cersei as a present (along with a note asking for some help against Stannis). Of course, the Real Littlefinger would have predicted this and never made the ridiculous offer in the first place. The idea that this would remain hidden from Cersei is equally idiotic. There are plenty of people in the north with an axe to grind with the Boltons, and any of them would strong incentives to let the crown know what was going on in Winterfell. It takes ravens 3-4 days to fly from the North to King's Landing. Littlefinger would have needed a month. Episode-6 Cersei should have known what LF did and put his head on a pike.

However, like I said earlier, this is water under the bridge. The directors wanted to move multiple characters together, and they endured a few plot holes to do it. I can understand that, even if it is annoying.

Cersei's Royal Decree will specifically indicate Littlefinger will only become the Warden of the North if he executes Sansa. Why wouldn't he? The only obstacle to that is Yohn Royce, and he might die in battle. Littlefinger might be attracted to Sansa, but he only loved Catelyn.

By killing Sansa, he destroys House Stark.

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I still am trying to guess how he'll pass Moat Cailin with the troops from the Vale...

He sails around it. Gulltown to White Harbor.

I think Littlefinger is setting up what TV Tropes refers to as a Xanatos Gambit: a scenario where no matter what happens, he wins. Let's break it down, at least in terms of how it's been presented to date:

Good summary. The other wrinkle is that I'm sure he's scheming with Olenna right now too. If Cersei falls, he's restored the Tyrells and probably gained an everlasting ally (maybe he could marry Margaery next if Sansa died) and if Cersei wins, well as far she knows he's always been a stalewart ally; and just brought the North back into the fold. I would't be surprised if he slips the High Sparrow some sort of proof of the Cersei/Jaime relationship.

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His plan is idiotic. Can only work because everything happens by the force of plot. In example: Cersei will NEVER find out how Littlefinger had Sansa until recently and arranged the marriage, and it does not matter that Littlefinger parade with the Stark through half the continent after openly revealing her identity to the Vale lords. All it would take is one single person loyal to the crown in the Vale, the Riverlands (if they crossed this path, of course) or in the North to the whole plan to go to hell.

But Littlefinger also is a victim of the writers, because they already decided that no matter what, no matter how open Ramsay is with his crazyness and his tortures and don't matter how House Bolton openly display flayed bodies, Littlefinger willl NEVER heard a single thing about all of this.

It is utterly preposterous. Ridiculous. Absurd.

And the cherry on top is that his plan would work much better by just sitting on the Eerie waiting for Stannis and the Boltons to kill each other. There was actually not a single need for him to put Sansa at risk (that's why the writers HAD TO force him into ignorance about Ramsay), specially when ALL IT TOOK for him to convince Cersei was that: TALK. Not a single evidence, just saying "Boltonzes are marrying Starkzes" and shazam, it was enough. But I think that's only fair he don't need to put Sansa at risk when at the other hand the Boltons have NOT A SINGLE REASON at all to marry the Starks once there is not another Northern House in the show, not a single external pressure actually forcing them, just the arbitrary "we need to marry you to Sansa because PLOT" that Roose brought us.

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LF captured Sansa after the purple wedding and took her to the Vale. no word has come to KL/Varys birds and the "news" never spread? mkay....MAYBE



so right after LF reaches the Vale he marries and his wife gets murdered (all while Sansa is around). so again, Cersei doesnt care or notice smtg is up?



(now the series masterplan *cough* kicks in)



and while i think that the WF arc doesnt make much sense AND is poorly written, i might let it go.



BUT now LF just teleports to KL and convinces Cersei he discovered a plot the Boltons build up and Cersei buys it instead of just beheading him?



come on, LF is pulling strings carefully in the background. his character got dumbed down a lot.


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All it would take to help the Bolton's case in the show was one single scene of Roose Bolton receiving other Northern lords in his castle or in winterfell and put a change of menacing looks to the Boltons, so the viewers would understand that: 1) there are other northern houses, even if they are not named, 2) they are not happy with Bolton's actions, 3) The Boltons actually need the cooperation of their vassals to rule, 4) Bolton's position is not so assured after all.

They've done this with Jon at the Wall. They've done this with Robert Baratheon, and then with Tywin. It would take a single minute or a little bit more and would just make the whole situation at the north more plausible.

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All it would take to help the Bolton's case in the show was one single scene of Roose Bolton receiving other Northern lords in his castle or in winterfell and put a change of menacing looks to the Boltons, so the viewers would understand that: 1) there are other northern houses, even if they are not named, 2) they are not happy with Bolton's actions, 3) The Boltons actually need the cooperation of their vassals to rule, 4) Bolton's position is not so assured after all.

They've done this with Jon at the Wall. They've done this with Robert Baratheon, and then with Tywin. It would take a single minute or a little bit more and would just make the whole situation at the north more plausible.

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It wouldn't surprise me if something similar happens in the books. LF scheming to be made Warden of the North sounds like something he would do for sure. He has already told Sansa he intends to bnng Vale soldiers to the North, he may have just lied about the reason he's planning it (what a shock). There is a lot of stuff that would need to align right in terms of Vale politics to make this happen, but I could see it being done.



I don't know about the logistics of it, how soon after Stannis and the Boltons are done fighting could a Vale army possibly show up? The Battle of WF is currently ongoing, while LF machinations in the Vale are just getting started. Them showing up during or right after the battle seems very unlikely.



It would be tough for Stannis though. He either wins the battle or is on the verge of it, then a surprise army shows up AGAIN and snatches victory from him. Just brutal. If an army from the Vale shows up with Sansa "at the head of it" (I'm sure LF would try to play that angle up), the Northmen may not be willing to fight against it with Stannis in that case. That may be what the whole "faking his death" thing is actually foreshadowing. He'd have no choice but to flee the North in that scenario.


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In show canon, at least, even if Cersei did find out about Littlefinger's complicity, if he's up north with Sansa, there's nothing she can do about it. Roose told Ramsay that the Lannisters won't send their forces that far north, and if they can't enforce their decrees, they're essentially powerless up north. Cersei can rant and fume all she likes about wanting Sansa's head on a spike, but if Sansa's at Winterfell, she can do nothing whatsoever to make that wish a reality except put a bounty on her head, and a bounty hunter trying to whisk Sansa Stark away on her own turf as the Lady of Winterfell has their work cut out for them.



Also, Littlefinger is counting on Cersei being on her way out, anyway, so what she wants or doesn't want in his mind will be irrelevant very soon, although he's willing to pretend otherwise in the interim to placate Cersei. It's not as if he can tell her, "Nah, I'll be marrying Sansa, not executing her." He's probably betting that by the time he makes it north, Cersei will have undone herself and her successor will bear Sansa no ill will. I agree that he's going to be talking with the Tyrells to hedge his bets (which I'm guessing is the Olenna "They'll never even find what's left of you" scene from the trailer).



Littlefinger's plan seems to be to head north with the Vale army to mop up after Stannis and the Boltons have it out. On the one hand, it doesn't look as if the Battle of Ice will be resolved this season (since that would be a big TWOW spoiler). On the other hand, it seems strange to introduce Littlefinger's intention to head north with his army without making it to Winterfell by the end of the season, unless he never makes the trip or gets delayed. Maybe his plans change after what I assume is his conversation with Olenna in 5x08. I have trouble envisioning Littlefinger at Winterfell with his army, even if for all I know he winds up there eventually in the books. It just doesn't seem to "fit." I know there was that cryptic line from the 5x08 description about Sansa confronting an "old friend": it seemed like Theon was the most likely choice, but I suppose Littlefinger might make it back to Winterfell by 5x08, although that seems far too soon if his intention is to clean up after the Bolton/Baratheon showdown.


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