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NFL Offseason 2015 Pt 2: Deflated Debate


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With all the stupid dumb shit this offseason, my anticipation for the season has been muted. But now that we're less than 2 months away, I'm starting to get excited.

 

So who has/had the best post-sack celebration in recent memory? I say Dwight Freeney. Not just because of homer bias, but I like that his routine was a simple salute. It's a nice gesture to the military people, it's quick and isn't distracting, and there's literally zero chance of injuring yourself.

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Reading Peter King's MMQB today he brings up that in the next few years the Seahawks will have 10 players accounting for roughly 98 million towards the cap.  this could be problematic, but I must grudgingly admit that they seem to be drafting amazingly well the last few years, so maybe they will be able to work through this with rookie contracts.

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Reading Peter King's MMQB today he brings up that in the next few years the Seahawks will have 10 players accounting for roughly 98 million towards the cap.  this could be problematic, but I must grudgingly admit that they seem to be drafting amazingly well the last few years, so maybe they will be able to work through this with rookie contracts.

 

The cap right now is $143.28 million, so that give them 45 million to pay 43 players. If they can pull this off and have competitive team for more than two seasons under those constraints, it'll be just as impressive as anything Belichik's done

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I was tempted to swing by the Colts practice field in Terre Haute, but they cut Trent Richardson. If I can't see a fat ball of fucks tripping over his own linemen every play what's the point of going to practice? 

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The cap right now is $143.28 million, so that give them 45 million to pay 43 players. If they can pull this off and have competitive team for more than two seasons under those constraints, it'll be just as impressive as anything Belichik's done

 

Another problem could be if their players continue the trend of holding out for more money when they are a year or two into contracts like Kam Chancellor and MIchael Bennett. If they restructure and pay these guys more, what's to stop Richard Sherman from doing the same next year? I get them paying Marshawn Lynch because he's goofy enough to actually retire, but they've set themselves up for a heap of trouble with these holdouts if they pay them.

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I mean the Seahawks have had a huge competitive advantage these last three years by having a very good QB on a 3rd rounder rookie contract and thus $20m under market. Not only that but a bunch of very good, just about best-at-their-position set of young players also on their rookie deals. This league isn't built for dynasties but the Seahawks had a better chance than most. They have a 3-4 year prime window before everyone gets paid like they should and the immense competitive advantage goes away. And if Pete Carroll runs the damn ball on 3rd and goal from the 1, they're now in training camp gearing up for their 3rd straight Superbowl, reloading with Jimmy Graham and appearing invincible. 

 

They're still crazy loaded coming into this year. Even with the big recent contracts they've pushed all the biggest cap hits out into 2016 and beyond so they haven't had to make any truly tough decisions yet. And their ten best players are all in the age 26-29 range. They better have some urgency about getting it done this year because who knows when they'll be this good again.

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Still not convinced of Wilson's worth as a passer.

despite having a first three year period most similar to Dan Marino and either the best or second best start to a career in the history of the league, all the while throwing to Doug Baldwin as his primary receiver and facing more pressure in the pocket than any other playoff-bound qb?

Yeah, sounds like he's a fake.

In other news, Mariota continues to impress in practice. Winston continues to throw interceptions.
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So, will anyone pick up Ray Rice?  I'm kind of surprised it hasn't happened yet.  There isn't going to be any real backlash to signing him, and frankly that feels right.  I think most people would agree that a full season and an 8 figure dollar penalty are enough punishment.  Yeah his 2013 season raised red flags, but he's only 28 and had a full year outside of football to recover. And you'd be able to sign him for a minimum salary at this point.

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despite having a first three year period most similar to Dan Marino and either the best or second best start to a career in the history of the league, all the while throwing to Doug Baldwin as his primary receiver and facing more pressure in the pocket than any other playoff-bound qb?

In what ways exactly? Cause he sure as hell wasn't putting up 30+ TD's every season (even though this is an era that favors the passer).

 

He had one of the strongest defenses around and a not exactly weak running game the minute he stepped into the league.

 

He also avoids pressure by using his legs.

 

None of this has anything to do with his worth as a passer.

 

 

In other news, Mariota continues to impress in practice. Winston continues to throw interceptions.

I am certain their camps are structured and executed the exact same way practice-wise.

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So, will anyone pick up Ray Rice?  I'm kind of surprised it hasn't happened yet.  There isn't going to be any real backlash to signing him, and frankly that feels right.  I think most people would agree that a full season and an 8 figure dollar penalty are enough punishment.  Yeah his 2013 season raised red flags, but he's only 28 and had a full year outside of football to recover. And you'd be able to sign him for a minimum salary at this point.

 

I think 80% of the reason he hasn't been signed is that he averaged 3.0 ypc in his last season before this incident. Mike Vick, Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy all still found gainful employment after the terrible things they did - but it's because teams we're convinced each could still play. Their talent outweighed the respective headache each caused.

 

But that's really unclear with Ray Rice. Not only that but he plays RB, the most fungible position in the NFL. Even on a minimum salary, are we sure he will materially outperform some no-name 6th rounder? Because if not abundantly clear, I know which way just about every team will lean. 

 

I do feel bad for the guy though. I do believe in second chances as a general rule. He just had the worst possible timing (both in terms of in a videotaped elevator and after his worst season) to have his worst moment as a human being. 

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Dan Marino seems like a very strange quarterback to pick if you want a comparison with Wilson.  They are completely different types of qb.  Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Steve McNair all seem like better choices.

 

However, I don't know what point RT is making that WIlson hasn't proven himself as a passer.  Wilson is an incredibly effective quarterback.  His ability to extend the play with his legs is part of that, and of course that makes him a better passer.  In three seasons he has 72 passing tds and 26 ints (2.8 td/int ratio).  That's not just good, that's fantastic.  There is only one other quarterback in NFL history who managed that kind of ratio in his first three years as a starter - Aaron Rodgers.

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