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Robert vs Viserys


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dothraki go on boats, boats go to sea, boats get sunk. Robert has a drink to celebrate becomes the lecherous booze hound we all know and love and the current time line resumes without the mother of dragons devastating the economies of half of essos


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Mistake the point still stands. Without a marriage there is no alliance. So how Dorne will support Viserys when Viserys has nothing to give them back?

viserys could marry marge, dany could marry quentyn

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Let's suppose Viserys does not get crowned and Robert does not drink that much. The War of the Five Kings is not happening, of course, so the Seven Kingdoms are united and in peace... until Viserys arrives in Dorne with 40000 dothraki men. How would that conflict develop?

Ok lets assume they arrive somehow unmolested (not massively unreasonable given varys is pro targ and is head of intellegence seemingly the only one that supplies foriegn intel as cersei and lf spy networks seem to be more domestic)

dorne on its own isnt enough they have as doran said 15-20k or so fighters , dorne isnt all dessert it actualy has green grassland but the huge dothraki cavalry will have to move along to green pastures soon

so the real issue that will decide their sucess is who joins them?

the tyrells may have been pro targ but they arent massively so plus renly has sorta gotten in with them for the baretheons side (im assuming that many of the household knew about the couple)

the leaders and most house in the riverlands , north , stormlands and westerland is firmly in with the regime

the vale may be persuaded if LF is offered some sort of deal,,but given the odds id doubt hed go that way

the crownlands may be a little divided as we hear some are hardcore pro targ from ole dick crabb

the golden company may come along

the ironborn wont side with anyone most likely ..maybe raid an undefended north at worst

the deciding factor will be how many lesser houses are willing to side against such a powerful alliance for the son of the feared mad king whos not exactly a charisma powerhouse or military genius

overall it wouldnt look good numbers wise lets say 40k dothraki, 20k dornish , 10k golden company and maybe an assorted 10-20k of random others ..the tyrells alone command about that.

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viserys could marry marge, dany could marry quentyn

And why would Dorne accept that ? They would let an opportunity to have a dornish queen for the Tyrell queen ? Especially when we know the history between Dorne and the Reach.

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Naval interception is far from an exact science when you're dealing with a continent the size of Westeros. Naturally word will cross the Narrow Sea long before the Dothraki arrive, but it's not going to be much of a naval battle. Still, Viserys would face innumerable obstacles.



Firstly, we have the Dothraki and transporting them. Moving 40,000 men is ridiculously difficult. The Golden Company had a quarter of the men and was still scattered all over Cape Wrath. Keep in mind, this is the Golden Company, born and bred and trained for discipline, and used to travel. The Dothraki have never gotten on boats before, and have a superstitious fear of the ocean. The very second Khal Drogo's ship is out of sight, there are going to be mutinies. They rely on their leader for discipline, and if he's not visible on his horse, they're a rabble. I doubt a Dothraki fleet would ever even make it to Westeros before totally imploding. A storm would make it far worse. Regardless, they're going to be scattered.



Secondly, all of these Dothraki have horses. In fact, you're probably going to need multiple horses per Dothraki, as spare mounts seem pretty common for them considering their horses are unarmored and they engage in open arrow-based warfare with them. That's taking the impossibility of the Dothraki traveling, and multiplying it by adding a bunch of animals. More than double the 'cargo' to be transported, taking the original excessive expense and increasing it even further.



Lastly, assuming he was landing in Dorne, Viserys is done. He's got Dorne, and that's it. The Tyrells aren't rising without something to gain, and the Martells aren't going to particularly care for the Tyrells gaining something if that something is Viserys' hand, and the violation of their agreement with Ser Darry. Robert punished the Targaryen loyalists of the Stormlands, so the Dornish Marches are his, and Randyll Tarly is the guy they'll have to meet if they go through the Prince's Pass. And again, their horses aren't going to fare well in the desert, and it will be a lot of marching and regrouping to get them all together and on the move.



It just doesn't work. To raise the wealth required, the Dothraki would need to utterly crash the slave exchange with overflow. Illyrio, as the main money-man behind this whole thing would benefit immensely. He'd provide the fleets, the sailors, handle the slave brokering, and the only Khalassar in recent history large enough to threaten the Free Cities would splinter and die, saving tons in tributes. If the invasion turns into an uncoordinated mess, dothraki would be deposited all up and down the coast of Westeros, pillaging in small, difficult to exterminate bands, adding to the atmosphere of chaos they want.


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For a moment i thought this was a 1v1 thread and it was the first time i felt REALLY sorry for Viserys (his childhood wasn´t pleasant either but... Gendry)



Seriously, Robert was worried but he was one of the most gifted people in history to inspire banners to his cause (North, Vale, Riverlands, Westerlands, Reach might aswell, Ironborn wouldn´t be needed), the Dothraki would die, half on the sea by Stannis's royal fleet and the other half on land (if not all in the sea)...


Even if they landed all screamers, they would pillage some villages and then die miserably against a westerosi army 1/3 their size, no more needed...



Dorne would not enter this, unless Doran showed some stupidity uncharacteristic of him... if they did join, well they would lose also...


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I'm going to say "maybe", but it depends on a lot going right for Viserys. He'll need to get the Dothraki to Westeros, which is tricky as discussed, but if he manages to land them in a reasonably coordinated fashion he's in business. Let's say that works out and he manages to assemble enough of a fleet to do it while fending off Stannis, say the Redwynes and Velaryons. I'll also assume he brings the Golden Company, which gives them some backbone, and it was the GC's plan to join him, after all. And let's say Dorne rises for Viserys too, as was Doran's intention. For the sake of argument, let's also say that the candidate for kingship isn't Viserys himself but Aegon, and that the Dothraki for some reason agree to this.



The addition of Dorne and the GC gives Viserys a substantial boost in size, possibly up to double his original numbers, and a big enough army to look threatening. The key is getting the Reach on side, and that's going to be tricky but not necessarily impossible. The Reach were after all Targ loyalists the first time round, unlike any of the northern kingdoms. Viserys and Dany are both already tied up marriage-wise, but Aegon isn't, and he might be an appropriate match for Margaery especially if he were the claimant king. (Doran isn't going to mind either way on the Viserys/Aegon issue, as either Arianne becomes queen or Elia's son becomes king).



The next trick is to target the potential neutrals and at worst guarantee their neutrality, and at best turn them into allies. The Vale should not be too difficult to persuade to stay out of things if they're listening to Lysa, but if Jaime's appointment has gone through he ironically might be able to raise the knights of the Vale more successfully, in his role as Warden. The Iron Islands could perhaps be bought by an offer to relinquish the Targ claim over them and grant them independence, and encourage them to raid the Westerlands and the North. Although not a full kingdom, the Freys are also important allies to seek, as they can hold that crossing almost indefinitely and stop the Northern armies linking up with the Westerlands and Riverlands in the west, forcing them down towards King's Landing.



Assuming they get the Reach onside somehow, though, there's then the question of where they go next. Renly demonstrated that King's Landing is vulnerable from the south, but Renly didn't have to fight his way through the Stormlands. The best option might be to send the bulk of the Reach troops to deal with the Stormlands and block the Roseroad to starve King's Landing (as Renly did), while the Dothraki and GC descend on the Riverlands and do to them what Tywin did. It will take the North a while to mobilise, longer if the Iron Islands are raiding their coast, and knocking out the southern kingdoms before the North can get there will be key. Assuming Tywin responds directly and brings his army into the Riverlands, they'll want to beat him in a pitched battle and try to force him back beyond the Golden Tooth. If not the Dothraki can run rings around Tywin's army in the Riverlands as Robb did.



But that's a lot of ifs. Even in that scenario the whole thing could be buggered by the Vale, who if they entered the war could link up with the eastern North army, and then move on to defend King's Landing to the point of impregnability, catch the Riverlands contingent in a pincer with Tywin, or reinforce the Stormlords against the Reach.


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Viserys may not be able to land his fleet. Dothraki have no experience at sea, and a peaceful realm would mean that Stannis/Robert can get the news quickly. And if it does, Dorne is not the best option. The best place would be somewhere in stormlands.


However if they do land at a safe spot, along with Golden company and Dorne is allied with them it may be trouble for Robert. North, Riverlands, Stormlands and Westerlands will fight for Robert. Vale may decide to remain neutral. Highgarden is likely to be allied with Robert though not sure about other bannermen.



Over all this Robert has one big advantage, he has got great commanders. Tywin, Stannis, Ned, Blackffish, Kevan and Robert himself Even people like Jaime and Robb are good commanders. Dothraki do not have experience fighting pitched battles as cities give them tribute rather than face them in battle. Golden company may have some good commanders and some Dornish lords may be exceptional but it seems to me Robert would crush the last of the targaryens.


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Assuming that Viserys convinces someone to part with enough ships to land 40,000 Dothraki in Westeros, this could be messy.



The Dothraki would dominate in open fields from the surprise factor as the Stormlands and Crownlands alone wouldn't be enough and are mostly foot anyway. The horse warriors wouldn't be able to besiege any major fortresses, but they'd get plenty of supplies and loot from the countryside and farmlands which would be hit the worst.



Tywin enters the war to protect his daughter and grand-children (Lannister legacy), but won't risk losing his forces and may only ensure that the Dothraki don't encroach close to King's Landing or the Westerlands.



Ned and Jon Arryn team up with Robert, but the North and Vale won't arrive in full strength of a total of 50 thousand+ for quite some time.



The Tullys commit their forces (20 to 30 thousand?), but the Riverlanders aren't exactly great fighters so without support from any of the other kingdoms, they'd be screwed.



Dorne marries Arianne to Viserys as Doran originally planned and Dorne enters the war with 30 to 50 thousand to join Viserys' forces.



The Reach is a wild card as they were Targaryen loyalists during the Rebellion, so they may join Viserys with 80 to 100 thousand. But brokering a marriage between Joffrey and Margeary could convince them to join the crown. Either way, there could be civil strife within the Reach and possibly a civil war to overthrow the Tyrells.



The Ironborn sit on Pyke and laugh at the fools as they kill each other. Then start raiding the Westerlands, North and Reach while their armies are off fighting the Dothraki.



War-fit Robert is strong and well-armored as well as a great military leader. It wouldn't be easy, but Robert would eventually beat the Dothraki through greater tactics, equipment, strategy, greater numbers and having a number of accomplished leaders at his call such as Tywin; Ned; Jon Arryn and Stannis the Mannis.



But if Robert dies in battle or by assassination, the unity of the realms falls apart and Viserys picks them off one by one while the lord-paramounts struggle with each other and their "beloved king" Joffrey. In fact, the common folk would help Viserys if it means getting Joffrey off of the throne.


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Making some of the same assumptions as above, GC comes with them as was the plan, Dorne sides with them and they somehow manage to find adequate transportation there (2nd biggest assumption), we wrongfully assume Viserys isn't a complete idiot (biggest assumption). they may have ways to make some noise.

First thing they need to do is try and solidify an alliance with the Iron Born. People don't think Balon was open to alliances, but it was just the fact that it was the North and Starks and how Robb worded the letter too, "give you a crown." He sent a letter to Tywin proposing an alliance so he was open to it. If they could get the IB and promise them Northern lands and/or let Balon call himself King that would be big. If the IB attacked the westerlands first then pulled back some, the Royal Navy would logically move to the Western side of the continent. They may be able to get the majority of their supporters across unmolested (with transportation assumption). Once they land they would have

IB naval power

Dorne

Dothraki

Golden Company

They probably shouldn't land in Dorne and house all their armies in one place, especially not a very fertile one. Maybe Crackclaw point which is historically Targ supports.

After that though, they are going to at least get 2 of the other regions on their side, or one region and partial supporters from other places. Maybe the Vale with LF and Lysa, though I don't think Lysa does this with Ned still alive.

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viserys could marry marge, dany could marry quentyn

Never going to work for multiple reasons. The Martells will never help to make a Tyrell Queen, Dany is married with Drogo, even if she wasn't the Martells have nothing to gain from that, marrying a second son is pointless and so on.

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Assuming that Viserys convinces someone to part with enough ships to land 40,000 Dothraki in Westeros, this could be messy.

The Dothraki would dominate in open fields from the surprise factor as the Stormlands and Crownlands alone wouldn't be enough and are mostly foot anyway. The horse warriors wouldn't be able to besiege any major fortresses, but they'd get plenty of supplies and loot from the countryside and farmlands which would be hit the worst.

Tywin enters the war to protect his daughter and grand-children (Lannister legacy), but won't risk losing his forces and may only ensure that the Dothraki don't encroach close to King's Landing or the Westerlands.

Ned and Jon Arryn team up with Robert, but the North and Vale won't arrive in full strength of a total of 50 thousand+ for quite some time.

The Tullys commit their forces (20 to 30 thousand?), but the Riverlanders aren't exactly great fighters so without support from any of the other kingdoms, they'd be screwed.

Dorne marries Arianne to Viserys as Doran originally planned and Dorne enters the war with 30 to 50 thousand to join Viserys' forces.

The Reach is a wild card as they were Targaryen loyalists during the Rebellion, so they may join Viserys with 80 to 100 thousand. But brokering a marriage between Joffrey and Margeary could convince them to join the crown. Either way, there could be civil strife within the Reach and possibly a civil war to overthrow the Tyrells.

The Ironborn sit on Pyke and laugh at the fools as they kill each other. Then start raiding the Westerlands, North and Reach while their armies are off fighting the Dothraki.

War-fit Robert is strong and well-armored as well as a great military leader. It wouldn't be easy, but Robert would eventually beat the Dothraki through greater tactics, equipment, strategy, greater numbers and having a number of accomplished leaders at his call such as Tywin; Ned; Jon Arryn and Stannis the Mannis.

But if Robert dies in battle or by assassination, the unity of the realms falls apart and Viserys picks them off one by one while the lord-paramounts struggle with each other and their "beloved king" Joffrey. In fact, the common folk would help Viserys if it means getting Joffrey off of the throne.

There is no way a force of 50K+ coming out of Dorne would be a surprise.

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Then Dany could marry Arianne's brother.

And your mistake still stands; about the double marriage.

I have already said I have made a mistake what else should I say? In any case as I have said before;

Never going to work for multiple reasons. The Martells will never help to make a Tyrell Queen, Dany is married with Drogo, even if she wasn't the Martells have nothing to gain from that, marrying a second son is pointless and so on.

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