AGoT Re-read Timeline

[The Adequate Jon]

Given that the Sansa I chapter says they took 12 days to travel through the Neck, I've revised the timeline. I'm now assuming a 3 and a half month trip from Kingslanding to Winterfell. The Neck is a minimum of 90 leagues. 90 leagues in 12 days is 7.5 leagues per day. At that speed, they would make the 2000 mile (580 league) trip in less than 80 days. However, there are no castles to visit and very little hunting to do in the Neck, so they are travelling at their peak speed in that area. 3 and a half months makes their average speed 19 miles per day.

[Spring Bass]

Given that the Sansa I chapter says they took 12 days to travel through the Neck, I've revised the timeline. I'm now assuming a 3 and a half month trip from Kingslanding to Winterfell. The Neck is a minimum of 90 leagues. 90 leagues in 12 days is 7.5 leagues per day. At that speed, they would make the 2000 mile (580 league) trip in less than 80 days. However, there are no castles to visit and very little hunting to do in the Neck, so they are travelling at their peak speed in that area. 3 and a half months makes their average speed 19 miles per day.

It's probably near the upper limit speed for a convoy of the King on horseback, but I think it will work. Huzzah for a good timeline!

[The Adequate Jon]

I just realized that Dany only has nine months before the end of the book to have her baby. I've adjusted Dany timeline to make this possible. The only problem that this causes is that news of her wedding now takes 5 months to reach Ned and Robert. This isn't too big of a deal because we really don't know how far that news would have to travel, and that news would take a long time because it would not be carried by raven. If we need to, we can adjust her timeline further by saying she gave birth earlier than the full nine months.

[Barba]

We have trouble. it appears

“One last question, if you would be so kind. You mentioned that the king was at Lord Arryn’s bedside when he died. I wonder, was the queen with him?â€

“Why, no,†Pycelle said. “She and the children were making the journey to Casterly Rock, in company with her father. Lord Tywin had brought a retinue to the city for the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day, no doubt hoping to see his son Jaime win the champion’s crown. In that he was sadly disappointed. It fell to me to send the queen word of Lord Arryn’s sudden death. Never have I sent off a bird with a heavier heart.â€

that they were making jurney to CR. When you travel that far, you don't go there for day or two. you go for looong time. It might be that on their way they found out about Jon, but they still needed time to return. It srtiked me as odd that Robert send message of Lord Arryn's death and his journey in the same leter. but, then again, it could be done if Robert left KL, and Lannisters followed River Road, and they met at Trident.

[The Adequate Jon]

Yes, we'll have to assume that they met up at the Trident. There is also the possibility that Pycelle was lying to Cercei an alibi if she were to be accused of killing Jon Arryn.

[Barba]

Yes, we'll have to assume that they met up at the Trident. There is also the possibility that Pycelle was lying to Cercei an alibi if she were to be accused of killing Jon Arryn.

It would be VERY stupid lie. I don't think so.

[The Adequate Jon]

Cat V also creates a timeline dilemma. Tyrion is at the Wall when news of Bran waking up arrives. Ned is at KL when this news arrives. Somehow Cat and Tyrion must arrive at the crossroads two weeks after Cat leaves KL (she tells Marillion that they left KL a fortnight ago). This means that Cat has to stay in KL until Tyrion is two weeks north of the cross roads. It makes no sense for her to stay that long. Originally, I had assumed that she left right after meeting with Ned. Maybe she was lying to Marillion, but why? Wouldn't he know how long it takes to get to KL? So, now we have Cat staying in KL a long time, and Tyrion travelling very quickly south from the Wall.

[Barba]

I think Cat left right after meeting with Ned. It would make no sense for her to stay after. If it takes her fourtnight to get to Trident, so be it. Her and Tyrion's Party are quite small, so we can assume they move much quicker tham King's party

[The Adequate Jon]

If Cat left right after meeting Ned, then we have to assume that:

1. Bran was dreaming of the future when he saw Sansa crying herself to sleep. Ned makes it clear that they got to KL a fortnight after he killed Lady. This means that Cat was back at the crossroads 4 weeks later. If Bran was dreaming about the present, then Tyrion has to go all the way from the Wall to the crossroads in 26 days (assuming it took 2 days for the news of Bran waking to reach the Wall). Remember, it took Tyrion and Jon at least 18 days to go from Winterfell to the Wall. So, Bran had to be dreaming of the future to give Tyrion a head start on his journey from the Wall. This is actually plausible, considering how prophetic Bran's dream was.

2. The first raven sent from Winterfell to KL with news about Bran was lost, so KL didn't get this news for more than a month after Bran woke up. When Ned meets with Cat, they don't know that Bran has woken up. When Ned remembers standing vigil in the godswood to give thanks for the news about Bran, I got the impression that they had been in KL for at least a few days.

So, which is more plausible: Cat stays in KL for weeks after meeting with Ned or Bran's dream is about the future and a raven gets lost?

[Barba]

I think bran dreamed about present. He saw his mother in ship for KL, his sisters on trident after Lady got killed. Storm ahead of his mother's path was a storm on the sea. Cat even mentions it

[The Adequate Jon]

I've decided to go with scenario #2. It seems more plausible than Cat staying KL for a long time. Plus, it makes the timeline work better.

I have a rough outline of the remaining chapters done in a spreadsheet, but I haven't updated the original post yet. In order for my timeline to work, I assumed Robb called the banners as soon as he heard that Jaime was raising an army at Casterly Rock. I don't think the books ever say exactly when he called the banners. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Barba]

IMO, Jon 6 and Jon 7 happen at the same day

[The Adequate Jon]

Well, it was getting dark in Jon 6 when Sam and Jon say their vows, and in Jon 7 it's daytime. I'll have to reread this, because this is only the impression I got while reading. However, Jon 7 should probably be the day after Jon 6. I'll make that correction. That shouldn't affect any other part of the timeline.

ETA:

After Jon and Sam say their vows, Ghost returns as dusk is falling, his red eyes and white face eerily like the faces carved in the weirwoods. Ghost has a human hand in his mouth.

This is from your chapter description in the Jon thread. Dusk is falling when Ghost returns with the hand, so they must have gone out with Mormont the next day.

[The Adequate Jon]

The timeline is now complete. It's probably not correct, but it's complete. Call it a draft. The biggest problem was getting Tyrion and Cat to meet at the inn. It was also difficult getting Robb's army to march south in time to meet with Cat at Moat Cailin, then meet with Frey, and then split and fight their battles. They had to march pretty fast.

Now that we have a draft, it would be interesting to go back and read the chapters in chronological order. I'm going to wait a few months before I do that though.

[Ealasaid]

I'm just getting ready to read AGoT for the umpteenth time. I've never tried to work up a time line. Did you take into account the huge rig Cersei, et al, are traveling in? Robert growls about it breaking down a lot. I think 15 miles a day is optomistic. How many miles did prairie schooners do in a day? They had to take care of broken axles and all that too. Just my two cents worth.

[The Adequate Jon]

Originally, we tried to keep them down to 15 mi/day, but that just doesn't give them enough time to finish the book before Joffrey's next nameday. They ended up going 25 mi/day. We just have to pretend that people and horses walk faster in ASOIAF.

[Barba]

yeah, and in FFC we had to pretend that Brienne rides slower than she walks

It's because george doesn't check that kind of stuff much

[SFDanny]

Jun 6 - Ned I, King's party arrives at WF

Jun 6 - Jon I, welcoming feast

I'm new to the thread, so let me start out by thanking you for all the work. I have to say, however, I do have a problem with the late date you have for the arrival of Robert and his party to Winterfell, and here's why: I have Myrcella and Tommen as "Irish" twins, as my Irish ancestors used to call them. Meaning they are siblings born in the same calendar year but in separate births (not really twins.) Obviously such siblings have to be not much closer than nine months apart (about 280 days really) and likely 10 to 11 months apart. I say this because (1) in AGoT Jon describes Myrcella as "not quite eight" and Tyrion describes her a year later in his discussion with Cersei about marrying her off to Trystane as nine, and (2) Tommen is eight at Joffrey's thirteenth name day tournament and he is nine at Sansa and Tyrion's wedding. So, both are born in 290 separated by about nine months. The point being, if Myrcella is still seven on June 6th 298 there is no way Tommen can turn eight about nine months later and have that occur in the same year - for this to happen in your timeline they would have to be about six months apart. Not likely in any setting, much less a medieval one. Something is off, and I think it is the late date for the arrival in Winterfell. If I'm wrong could you show me how? Thanks.

Edit: Ok, nevermind! Now I find a contradiction in the text. Jaime describes Tommen as an "eight-year-old" WELL AFTER Sansa tells us he is nine. So, perhaps the timeline is possible. Either Sansa is a "unreliable narrator" or George made a mistake. Either way Tommen's age looks to still be eight in Year 300 - at least up until Tywin's funeral.

[The Adequate Jon]

The starting date in my timeline is not accurate. I just picked a random date to start. Eventually, I'll work out the timeline to the start of the new century in AFFC. At that point, I'll be able to revise my dates so that they're more accurate.

[SFDanny]

The starting date in my timeline is not accurate. I just picked a random date to start. Eventually, I'll work out the timeline to the start of the new century in AFFC. At that point, I'll be able to revise my dates so that they're more accurate.

Good to know. Still it is helpful and a lot of work. I've been trying to do the same but based on name days mentioned in the story. I'll post what I have when it's done. The only real hard date Martin gives us is New Year 300 after the landing, but given we know both Joffrey and Margery's age at that time, and we have a reference in the text to Joffrey's name day, we can work out quite a bit. Thanks again.

One note on my confusion about Tommen's name day. It looks like Martin uses a phrase that means something totally different than what I took it to mean. He has Sansa thinking about Tommen's age as "all of eight" on Joffrey's name day (ACoK 30,) and "all of nine" on her wedding day (ASoS 322.) I originally took this to mean Tommen has just turned that age shortly before Sansa thinks of him as such, but that is obviously incorrect because of the numerous mentions of Tommen still being eight in A Feast for Crows - after the debacle of Joffrey's wedding. It could be a mistake on Martin's part, but I have come to believe, after thinking it over for a few days, it is probably just my own misreading of the phrase "all of ...". I now think Martin means it to translate as "not quite ..." instead of "just." If I'm right there is one other place in which I've noticed Martin to use the same phrase and that is in a Robert reference to Jaime. He says,

"You think I should mistrust Lannister because he sat on my throne for a few moments?" He shook with laughter again. "Jaime was all of seventeen, Ned. Scarce more than a boy." (AGoT 97 US Hardback)

If I'm right, then a consistent use of the phrase means Jaime wasn't seventeen at the time of the Sack, but rather sixteen still shy of his seventeenth name day.

Not a specific AGoT reference, but interesting nonetheless.