Was TPTWP always meant to be a "secret" Targ?

[Narea]

Hi all, this is my first thread and I'm not sure if this was brought up before but there was something that I was wondering...

I have argued before that the Others are pushing their attack now because there is simply nothing to hold them back anymore. But that was really true hundred years ago already, when the Targs lost the last of their dragons and realm was then in almost constant state of civil war for a couple of decades...So what changed?

I would argue now that it was not threat of dragons that held them back for so long but rather the threat of TPTWP. I think that the Others knew that their destroyer would come from the Targaryen family and were not willing to risk it. They weren't willing to risk it when Valyria was a great empire and they were't willing to risk it when Valyria was destroyed and only a handfull of dragons remained. They were't willing to risk it even when no dragons were left at all, just Targaryens. But suddenly there are no Targaryens left in Westeros and they start gathering their forces for an attack on the realms of Men...

I propose that TPTWP was never meant to be obvious to the Others as a Targaryen and thus a threat. Much has been made of the Targaryen unusual looks on this forum and I think that the Others could make the same mistake. Or rather, that they would expect TPTWP to be an ultimate Targaryen as he was supposed to be what Targs worked towards so hard for so long.

Many posters see Dany as a red herring. What if she was not supposed to mislead us but rather the Others? What if her ultimate purpose is to lull the Others into feeling of false security? After all, the only living Targ is all the way across the sea and not in the least interested in them... It's not like TPTWP is anywhere near to be able hurt them ;)

This makes assumptions like R+L=J=TPTWP, but the whole situation reminds me of King of Angmar knowing no man can kill him and being all smug about it and then Eowyn (a woman) and Merry (not yet considered adult and therefore not a man) defeating him because of that sense of security. So what if the Others expose themselves to a bit of danger? It's not like there's anyone around that can actually defeat them...

So what I am saying is that TPTWP was never meant to be known as a Targaryen or to even look as one so he could fullfill his prophesized destiny. What if the whole prophecy was meant to mislead the Others?

[Aegon the Poached]

I wouldn't try to understand the minds of the Others. We know too little about them to assess their decisions. I doubt they give a grumpkin's arse about some airy-fairy prophecy. But, you could be right, who knows.

[Essan]

posted in error

[Aegon the Poached]

posted in error

There really should be a delete option.

[Marten]

There are still a lot of Targaryen blood floating around in Westeros. The name may be extinct, but descendants are plentiful. Most of them quite far removed, of course, but still.

[Marten]

There are still a lot of Targaryen blood floating around in Westeros. The name may be extinct, but descendants are plentiful. Most of them quite far removed, of course, but still.

[Marten]

Sorry about the posts, it didn't seem like they went through.

[Narea]

There are still a lot of Targaryen blood floating around in Westeros. The name may be extinct, but descendants are plentiful. Most of them quite far removed, of course, but still.

While that is true, remember that TPTWP was supposed to be born of the line of Aerys and Rhaella. Even without that tidbit, there is still the fact that it was supposed to be a promised "prince" and therefore of royal birth not some random fourth cousin thrice removed from any royal title.

I'm pretty sure that whatever Targaryens knew about the prophecy, the Others knew as well.

[The_Crannogman]

While that is true, remember that TPTWP was supposed to be born of the line of Aerys and Rhaella. Even without that tidbit, there is still the fact that it was supposed to be a promised "prince" and therefore of royal birth not some random fourth cousin thrice removed from any royal title.

I'm pretty sure that whatever Targaryens knew about the prophecy, the Others knew as well.

Didn't the bit about TPTWP come from a woods with fairly recently in the grand scheme of things, how would the others have heard this information?

Secondly there was a targaryen at the wall whilst the others were building up their forces, Aemon, which they surely would have noticed in your theory.

[Narea]

Didn't the bit about TPTWP come from a woods with fairly recently in the grand scheme of things, how would the others have heard this information?

Secondly there was a targaryen at the wall whilst the others were building up their forces, Aemon, which they surely would have noticed in your theory.

You are right that that came from what a woods witch said to Jaeherys II.

However, I am saying that the Others are aware of what is going on south of the Wall and their focus is especially on the Targaryen family. As such, it's not exactly a stretch that they would learn of it. Even if they didn't know this, I doubt they would think to look for TPTWP in families with "diluted" Targ blood. They would look in the main line or in a branch that preserved Targaryen name. I imagine that if there is a prophecy that a Targaryen prince will bring about an eternal summer, you will not be looking for (as an example) Martell. Same goes if there was a Stark prophesized to do something, you will not be looking for that person among the Karstarks or any other Northern house they ever married into.

As for Aemon, I think he was pretty safe from the Others on the Wall. The Wall was specifically built to interfere with powers of the Others and to counter them and we know that he never left it after he came there from KL, not untill Jon sent him away. And even if they knew about him, by the time the main Targaryen line in Westeros is obviously extinguished and the Others start to stir, he is a blind man over a hundred years old and not much of a threat in anyone's book.

I'm not saying that I'm necessarily right with this theory. The thought just occured to me and wouldn't let go. I posted it to get the discussion going and for you guys to poke holes in it.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

So why didn't they attack 400 years ago, after they've been held back for 8000? I think people are barking up the wrong tree that Jon being a Targ is somehow the answer. The Targs were not around during the Long Night and the realm survived. So they were pushed back without them. All hints suggest that 'The Last Hero' who whoever was involved in it was connected to the Starks, who Jon is descended from. For 8000 years its always been the Starks that fought north of the wall. I propose that the idea of a Stark coming would make the Nights King pee himself far more than the thought of a family the others have likely never heard of. Perhaps they are attacking now because they have their own version of greenseers and saw the Stark's getting cast out by the Lannisters. No Stark, open season on Westeros?

I keep saying, just because people saw who Jon's dad was doesn't mean Jon's dad has more importance in the conclusion than Jon's mother. Perhaps its important Jon gets born and that is where the Targ involvement ends? OK maybe that's a touch extreme but the point stands.

[The Dames do Moan]

So why didn't they attack 400 years ago, after they've been held back for 8000? I think people are barking up the wrong tree that Jon being a Targ is somehow the answer. The Targs were not around during the Long Night and the realm survived. So they were pushed back without them. All hints suggest that 'The Last Hero' who whoever was involved in it was connected to the Starks, who Jon is descended from. For 8000 years its always been the Starks that fought north of the wall. I propose that the idea of a Stark coming would make the Nights King pee himself far more than the thought of a family the others have likely never heard of. Perhaps they are attacking now because they have their own version of greenseers and saw the Stark's getting cast out by the Lannisters. No Stark, open season on Westeros?

I keep saying, just because people saw who Jon's dad was doesn't mean Jon's dad has more importance in the conclusion than Jon's mother. Perhaps its important Jon gets born and that is where the Targ involvement ends? OK maybe that's a touch extreme but the point stands.

Basically this but the one part I always found wierd. On the boat with Sam, Aemon says that they missed Dany for TPtWP because they were always looking for a male. But the original prophecy was the "dragon" that was promised. And dragons aren't a specific sex. And in-universe the people Were looking at the Targs because they were the "dragons" however when the prophecy was probably written, there most likely weren't any Targs, and for sure they didn't have a sigil that was a dragon if there were, the sigil is only 300 years old.

[Ser Greg of House House]

It's a possibility, I guess.

But I don't think Others can just choose when they will wake up/get powerful without empowering their potential enemies as well. Thematically, it seems all magic is connected. So unless there are dragons/magic (causality here is not easy to assess), there are no (powerful/awake) Others.

Dragons are born. Red comet in the skies. Glass candles work. Thoros can revive people. Mel is led to the Wall. Others are gathering. Starks are all wargs, and Bran is a greenseer.

There has to be some magical reason as to why all these things are happening at the same time. I guess it's a possibility that the Others choose when they will attack, but they know they will light the fire. Only maybe they thought there wouldn't be anyone able to use it.

[Narea]

So why didn't they attack 400 years ago, after they've been held back for 8000? I think people are barking up the wrong tree that Jon being a Targ is somehow the answer. The Targs were not around during the Long Night and the realm survived. So they were pushed back without them. All hints suggest that 'The Last Hero' who whoever was involved in it was connected to the Starks, who Jon is descended from. For 8000 years its always been the Starks that fought north of the wall. I propose that the idea of a Stark coming would make the Nights King pee himself far more than the thought of a family the others have likely never heard of. Perhaps they are attacking now because they have their own version of greenseers and saw the Stark's getting cast out by the Lannisters. No Stark, open season on Westeros?

I keep saying, just because people saw who Jon's dad was doesn't mean Jon's dad has more importance in the conclusion than Jon's mother. Perhaps its important Jon gets born and that is where the Targ involvement ends? OK maybe that's a touch extreme but the point stands.

Maybe they didn't attack 400 years ago because the family from which TPTWP was supposed to be had a multimillennial empire of dragonlords? And after that empire was destroyed, they still had those pesky dragons...

Maybe people give so much thought to Targaryens equaling special snowflakes because no other family had to be taken care of via a large-scale "natural" disaster and even then survived?

Maybe the reason people see an importance in a connection between the Others and the Valyrians in general and Targaryens specificaly is that while it was Brandon the Builder who built the Wall that can hold the Others off, only dragon steel and dragon glass are what can actually kill them. Valyria is closely tied to dragons and Targaryens are the most noted representatives of it in-story.

The only place that we know of where dragon glass can be mined is Dragonstone. Dragonstone was Valyrian outpost held by Targaryens and inhabited by dragons. Heck, in-story dragon glass (obsidian) is most likely a result of dragons breathing fire in their lairs and melting rock.

Though it is interesting to note that if Valyrians were the first to tame dragons and they did so after the Long Night has already ended, how can anyone know that dragon steel can kill an Other, when there was no way to forge such steel at a time when they were around? And how could anyone get to obsidian without a dragon eating them? And again, how would they know to get obsidian?

The timeline of events on Planetos is very iffy. This is mostly due to unevenness and irregularity of seasons resulting in different civilizations/cultures measuring years in different ways. The only thing we can safely assume about the Long Night is that it was a long time ago.

Basically this but the one part I always found wierd. On the boat with Sam, Aemon says that they missed Dany for TPtWP because they were always looking for a male. But the original prophecy was the "dragon" that was promised. And dragons aren't a specific sex. And in-universe the people Were looking at the Targs because they were the "dragons" however when the prophecy was probably written, there most likely weren't any Targs, and for sure they didn't have a sigil that was a dragon if there were, the sigil is only 300 years old.

We can't forget that Aemon is not exactly lucid when he tells Sam this. The prophecy is Valyrian (if not Targaryen) in origin so I don't really see where you are going with the sigil stuff. If you make a prophecy about a dragonlord in a land of dragonlords does the specific house from which the dragonlord is from have to have a dragon sigil for us to be able to divine that in-prophecy dragon is in fact a dragonlord?

There is also a fact that history is said to be written by victors and in Essos, Valyrians were the victors for thousands of years. The Doom destroyed a lot of authentic historical records made by Valyrians for Valyrians and we can see how that wrecked havoc even among Targaryens of a hundred years ago. How much we can trust of what Aemon says or knows? How much history and how many stories were changed or outright invented by Valyrians for non-Valyrians?

It's a possibility, I guess.

But I don't think Others can just choose when they will wake up/get powerful without empowering their potential enemies as well. Thematically, it seems all magic is connected. So unless there are dragons/magic (causality here is not easy to assess), there are no (powerful/awake) Others.

Dragons are born. Red comet in the skies. Glass candles work. Thoros can revive people. Mel is led to the Wall. Others are gathering. Starks are all wargs, and Bran is a greenseer.

There has to be some magical reason as to why all these things are happening at the same time. I guess it's a possibility that the Others choose when they will attack, but they know they will light the fire. Only maybe they thought there wouldn't be anyone able to use it.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc, eh? We know from Mance that the Others started to become active north of the Wall years before Dany's dragons were around. That is the reason he started to unite various wildling clans and that took him a looong time. But yes, dragons being back does appear to boast fire (or dragon) based magic. Problem is that that magic, nor any other was ever gone. Magic was never gone from Planetos. There was a greenseer, just not Bran. There were warlocks in Qarth. There were the Faceless Men in Braavos. There were woods witches in Westeros. There even were red priests with visions in the flames.

[Ser Greg of House House]

Post hoc ergo propter hoc, eh? We know from Mance that the Others started to become active north of the Wall years before Dany's dragons were around. That is the reason he started to unite various wildling clans and that took him a looong time. But yes, dragons being back does appear to boast fire (or dragon) based magic. Problem is that that magic, nor any other was ever gone. Magic was never gone from Planetos. There was a greenseer, just not Bran. There were warlocks in Qarth. There were the Faceless Men in Braavos. There were woods witches in Westeros. There even were red priests with visions in the flames.

I don't understand why you're using latin expressions and accusing me of fallacies. I said thematically and explicitly said causality is hard to assess. This is literature we're talking about, you know that, right?

[Narea]

I don't understanding why you're using latin expressions and accusing me of fallacies. I said thematically and explicitly said causality is hard to assess. This is literature we're talking about, you know that, right?

Sure, I agree that all magic is connected, but in the bolded part you equate magic to dragons. While both the Others and dragons are dependent on magic for their existence, their existence or strength is not necessarily dependent on each other which is what I was objecting to.

[EternET]

"Was a prophecy we don't specificaly know about designed to fool the Others" ? => Conspiracy theory much ?

If the Others are "waiting until there's no more dragon blood (let's go like that) => Then why the Night's king ? And there was NO dragon in his defeat.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

Maybe they didn't attack 400 years ago because the family from which TPTWP was supposed to be had a multimillennial empire of dragonlords? And after that empire was destroyed, they still had those pesky dragons...

Maybe people give so much thought to Targaryens equaling special snowflakes because no other family had to be taken care of via a large-scale "natural" disaster and even then survived?

Maybe the reason people see an importance in a connection between the Others and the Valyrians in general and Targaryens specificaly is that while it was Brandon the Builder who built the Wall that can hold the Others off, only dragon steel and dragon glass are what can actually kill them. Valyria is closely tied to dragons and Targaryens are the most noted representatives of it in-story.

The only place that we know of where dragon glass can be mined is Dragonstone. Dragonstone was Valyrian outpost held by Targaryens and inhabited by dragons. Heck, in-story dragon glass (obsidian) is most likely a result of dragons breathing fire in their lairs and melting rock.

Though it is interesting to note that if Valyrians were the first to tame dragons and they did so after the Long Night has already ended, how can anyone know that dragon steel can kill an Other, when there was no way to forge such steel at a time when they were around? And how could anyone get to obsidian without a dragon eating them? And again, how would they know to get obsidian?

The timeline of events on Planetos is very iffy. This is mostly due to unevenness and irregularity of seasons resulting in different civilizations/cultures measuring years in different ways. The only thing we can safely assume about the Long Night is that it was a long time ago.

We can't forget that Aemon is not exactly lucid when he tells Sam this. The prophecy is Valyrian (if not Targaryen) in origin so I don't really see where you are going with the sigil stuff. If you make a prophecy about a dragonlord in a land of dragonlords does the specific house from which the dragonlord is from have to have a dragon sigil for us to be able to divine that in-prophecy dragon is in fact a dragonlord?

There is also a fact that history is said to be written by victors and in Essos, Valyrians were the victors for thousands of years. The Doom destroyed a lot of authentic historical records made by Valyrians for Valyrians and we can see how that wrecked havoc even among Targaryens of a hundred years ago. How much we can trust of what Aemon says or knows? How much history and how many stories were changed or outright invented by Valyrians for non-Valyrians?

Post hoc ergo propter hoc, eh? We know from Mance that the Others started to become active north of the Wall years before Dany's dragons were around. That is the reason he started to unite various wildling clans and that took him a looong time. But yes, dragons being back does appear to boast fire (or dragon) based magic. Problem is that that magic, nor any other was ever gone. Magic was never gone from Planetos. There was a greenseer, just not Bran. There were warlocks in Qarth. There were the Faceless Men in Braavos. There were woods witches in Westeros. There even were red priests with visions in the flames.

1. Valyrians in general never set foot in westeros because of a prophecy about the doom of man, there is also no way for the Others to know about them if they haven't encountered man in that time.

2. 'Taken care of via natural disaster' what? the Doom? That wasn't just to kill Targs. It seems the Faceless men wanted the slavers dead. There is also the theory the Targs orchestrated it to become the only family with dragons.

3. Dragonstone isn't the only place obsidian can be mined. The Children of the Forest supplied the watch with it for years before the Valyrians.

4. Dragonsteel is likely 'Dawn' and not Valyrian steel. Dragonglass is naturally occuring minerals made under extreme heat, Obsidian. Dragonsteel may be made of ore found in meteors, again, massive heat. Dragonfire forged weapons also fulfill this extreme heat idea but its not the only one.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Didn't the bit about TPTWP come from a woods with fairly recently in the grand scheme of things, how would the others have heard this information?

Secondly there was a targaryen at the wall whilst the others were building up their forces, Aemon, which they surely would have noticed in your theory.

No. The prophecy about The Dragon that was Promised is a very old Valyrian prophecy. All the woods witch added was that he/she would be born of Aerys and Rhaella's line.

Don't know how the Others would have heard about it. Since we know nothing (Jon Snow) in regard to the Others' intelligence network, they actually could know, and we wouldn't know that they know, you know?

Also at the Wall....Bloodraven, for a while. And since that time he's been watching things through the weirnet, and waiting for Bran to be ready to learn how to combat the threat.

[The_Crannogman]

No. The prophecy about The Dragon that was Promised is a very old Valyrian prophecy. All the woods witch added was that he/she would be born of Aerys and Rhaella's line.

Don't know how the Others would have heard about it. Since we know nothing (Jon Snow) in regard to the Others' intelligence network, they actually could know, and we wouldn't know that they know, you know?

Also at the Wall....Bloodraven, for a while. And since that time he's been watching things through the weirnet, and waiting for Bran to be ready to learn how to combat the threat.

Sorry I don't think I made it clear but I meant that TPTWP bit in regards to what was said about Aerys and Rhaella's line. So yeah you're right.