The Reach is unrealistically powerful

[Beautiful Balon]

Still not necessary you outnumber all your enemies grab that initiative you can take kings landing joffrey possibly Tommen smash tywin and robb if he's hostile and get ready to break the ironborn I'm not saying what renly did was stupid or didn't make sense just not what i would have done.

• "It is much better to overcome the enemy by famine, surprise or terror than by general actions, for in the latter instance fortune has often a greater share than valour." (Vegetius)

Even though Renly isn't fighting he is still accomplishing military objectives mainly starving kingslanding to weaken the lannisters control over the capital and destroy their legitimacy without risking any of his men. If he rushes then he'll have to fight Tywin, will he win, probably but Tywin is a very competent dude who is currently being weakened. Why change the situation and take a risk like that. And after he deals with Tywin he might have to battle Robb who has shown a talent for pulling off stunning military victories. Why do that when you could have him as a friend and ally.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Both Renly and Robb had the same strategy, they were both hoping that the other would fight (and hopefully beat) Tywin first and in the process weaken themselves so they would be no threat.

[Bobby b's bobby]

• "It is much better to overcome the enemy by famine, surprise or terror than by general actions, for in the latter instance fortune has often a greater share than valour." (Vegetius)

Even though Renly isn't fighting he is still accomplishing military objectives mainly starving kingslanding to weaken the lannisters control over the capital and destroy their legitimacy without risking any of his men. If he rushes then he'll have to fight Tywin, will he win, probably but Tywin is a very competent dude who is currently being weakened. Why change the situation and take a risk like that. And after he deals with Tywin he might have to battle Robb who has shown a talent for pulling off stunning military victories. Why do that when you could have him as a friend and ally.</p>

I did say in an earlier post while tarly and garlan go for tywin with 30k renly goes for the capital and takes it bloody yes but you get joffrey cersie tyrion varys and his seat the capital and sansa and ice to trade with Robb as long as he will pledge fealty letting robb call himself whatever he wants In the north as long as he recognised renly as king and his overlord. And vegetius is not a great military mind to quote.

[EastTymor]

The problem with this logic is that 88 thousand you mention are not allied. Robb Stark is not an enemy immediately. He is a co-belligerent meaning he shares the same enemy as you without a formal alliance. He is a potential vassal of large strength. Technically Stannis is in a similar situation, though as we'd later see he's not going to bend the knee.

Once Robb wins the Whispering Woods and the Battle of Camps Renly should have moved, because Joffrey, Tywin and assorted Lannisters are his number one enemy. Between Robbs 20-40k and some similar amount of his they can pulverize Tywin and ally.

Furthermore waiting runs the risk of other factions joining his enemies or rivals. Or for his rivals to grow in power. Lets say Robb gets lucky and kill Tywin somewhere in the Riverlands, then the Vale joins him and the Iron Islands. Renly has lost half of his Kingdom. Renly might have some more troops even then, but he can't win without a bloody war where his enemy has the home ground advantage.

What I'm proposing isn't a huge risk scenario. Send 20,000 men up the Ocean Road. There will be literally no large scale resistance to them until they reach Stafford's smaller untrained host. Send 20,000 to besiege Kinslanding to cut off any Lannister legitimacy of having the throne. Then you still have 2x 20k armies you can use to pressure Tywin in the Riverlands and competent commanders like Randyl Tarly to lead them. Outnumbering Tywin 2:1, 3-4:1 if you count Robb and the Riverlords.

In every theatre you still outnumber your enemies. Each win gains more potential allies, weakens the enemy and legitimizes your reign.

Yes, I agree they are not allied. This is a great asset for Renly- his enemies will kill each other for him!!! Why get in the way?

Renly is the strongest claimant, bar none. Nobody has any serious animosity towards him that we know of, except perhaps Cersei. His rivals are more divisive. As long as Renly is seen as strong and unifying, fence sitters will be more likely to join him than anybody else.

Renly want the whole kingdom. If Robb is able to hold on in the North, that's as bad for him as Tywin holding on in the Westerlands. The surest way to prevent both is to give them enough rope to hang themselves, which they show every sign of doing.

We don't know anything (or I don't anyway) about the geography of the Ocean Road. Suppose there is a Golden Tooth equivalent there and even an inferior host can hold out for months. Renly's aura of inevitability is shattered and his forces are occupied. Still definitely a move to consider.

We also don't know much about the geography of the Blackwater away from King's Landing. Remember, Renly needs to cross the river to siege King's Landing and he has no fleet. If he tried to cross with barges, the remnants of the Royal Fleet will cut him to pieces. If there are fords, they can be defended by an inferior force, like Tywin's, which would be well positioned at Harrenhal.

Sending an army into the Riverlands accomplishes nothing and actually hurts his assault on King's Landing. I am substantially less optimistic than you about the likelihood of the North and Riverlords joining Renly, especially if he sends an army into the Riverlands. I think the more likely result is that the North/Tridents forces feel compelled to take up defensive positions against Renly, Renly needs to keep an eye on them at the least, and the end result is that Tywin gets some breathing room to repel Renly's thrust at King's Landing. Moreover, Renly would have sent the bulk of his army into the Riverlands, which would lengthen his supply lines, expose him to being pincered by Robb and Tywin (not likely, but more so than shadowbabies), expose him to being cut off by flooding rivers, and a host of other problems. Imagine if a Westerman army gets loose in his rear and is able to cut him off from resupply in the Riverlands?

Renly had a good thing going. He had overwhelming local military superiority. He had an excellent supply position. His enemies were fighting each other rather than preparing for him. He might have won the war without a battle, if King's Landing surrendered rather than starved and Tywin and Robb exhausted each other past the point of resistance in the Riverlands. If not, he crosses the Blackwater in force (easier now, since Robb is free to threaten Tywin's rear if he moves to defend the fords) and King's Landing falls easily. He takes the bump in legitimacy there and then heads West in full force.

[GallowsKnight]

I did say in an earlier post while tarly and garlan go for tywin with 30k renly goes for the capital and takes it bloody yes but you get joffrey cersie tyrion varys and his seat the capital and sansa and ice to trade with Robb as long as he will pledge fealty letting robb call himself whatever he wants In the north as long as he recognised renly as king and his overlord. And vegetius is not a great military mind to quote.

Good plan. The way I'd do it.

I'd send Garlan Tyrell with Alester Florent, up the Ocean road with 20k men to threat the west and where possible smash Stafford, take Lannisport and besiege Casterly Rock. This gets the potentially. troublesome Florents as far away from Stannis as possible. It puts pressure on the Lannister and makes wrapping the war easier, as Tywin has no where to flee.

I'd leave Mace to besiege Kingslanding with 20,000, with a competent second in command like Bryce Caron to organise the actual details.

I'd then send Tarly with 25-30,000 to threaten Tywin, while I take Loras, Rolland Storm and 10,000 men to where possible negiotiate with Robb, while being able to march to join Tarly or fall back to regroup with Mace where possible. Hopefully we can either smash Tywin in the field or besiege him in Harrenhal.

[Bobby b's bobby]

Good plan. The way I'd do it.

I'd send Garlan Tyrell with Alester Florent, up the Ocean road with 20k men to threat the west and where possible smash Stafford, take Lannisport and besiege Casterly Rock. This gets the potentially. troublesome Florents as far away from Stannis as possible. It puts pressure on the Lannister and makes wrapping the war easier, as Tywin has no where to flee.

I'd leave Mace to besiege Kingslanding with 20,000, with a competent second in command like Bryce Caron to organise the actual details.

I'd then send Tarly with 25-30,000 to threaten Tywin, while I take Loras, Rolland Storm and 10,000 men to where possible negiotiate with Robb, while being able to march to join Tarly or fall back to regroup with Mace where possible. Hopefully we can either smash Tywin in the field or besiege him in Harrenhal.

Think that's actually a better idea than taking kl yourself mace will be glad to get a chance to "command" while you get to talk down robb with your charisma I get letting your enemies bleed each other it's bloody helpful i like strategy and grand strategy games plus history but when you have overwhelming numbers with good leaders and your popular don't piss about get the job done quick.

[GallowsKnight]

Yes, I agree they are not allied. This is a great asset for Renly- his enemies will kill each other for him!!! Why get in the way?

Renly is the strongest claimant, bar none. Nobody has any serious animosity towards him that we know of, except perhaps Cersei. His rivals are more divisive. As long as Renly is seen as strong and unifying, fence sitters will be more likely to join him than anybody else.

Renly want the whole kingdom. If Robb is able to hold on in the North, that's as bad for him as Tywin holding on in the Westerlands. The surest way to prevent both is to give them enough rope to hang themselves, which they show every sign of doing.

We don't know anything (or I don't anyway) about the geography of the Ocean Road. Suppose there is a Golden Tooth equivalent there and even an inferior host can hold out for months. Renly's aura of inevitability is shattered and his forces are occupied. Still definitely a move to consider.

We also don't know much about the geography of the Blackwater away from King's Landing. Remember, Renly needs to cross the river to siege King's Landing and he has no fleet. If he tried to cross with barges, the remnants of the Royal Fleet will cut him to pieces. If there are fords, they can be defended by an inferior force, like Tywin's, which would be well positioned at Harrenhal.

Sending an army into the Riverlands accomplishes nothing and actually hurts his assault on King's Landing. I am substantially less optimistic than you about the likelihood of the North and Riverlords joining Renly, especially if he sends an army into the Riverlands. I think the more likely result is that the North/Tridents forces feel compelled to take up defensive positions against Renly, Renly needs to keep an eye on them at the least, and the end result is that Tywin gets some breathing room to repel Renly's thrust at King's Landing. Moreover, Renly would have sent the bulk of his army into the Riverlands, which would lengthen his supply lines, expose him to being pincered by Robb and Tywin (not likely, but more so than shadowbabies), expose him to being cut off by flooding rivers, and a host of other problems. Imagine if a Westerman army gets loose in his rear and is able to cut him off from resupply in the Riverlands?

Renly had a good thing going. He had overwhelming local military superiority. He had an excellent supply position. His enemies were fighting each other rather than preparing for him. He might have won the war without a battle, if King's Landing surrendered rather than starved and Tywin and Robb exhausted each other past the point of resistance in the Riverlands. If not, he crosses the Blackwater in force (easier now, since Robb is free to threaten Tywin's rear if he moves to defend the fords) and King's Landing falls easily. He takes the bump in legitimacy there and then heads West in full force.

All good points. I am perhaps optimistic but the advantage of Renly's position is he can make a few risky moves to gain great reward. As you say he wants the whole Kingdom. Right now there are the Lannisters and then Robb Stark (and his potential allies). Robb Stark is going to be more likely to secede if he wins without Renly doing anything. To be King of anything more than Reach and Stormlands he needs to act.

As for the Riverlands. The whole while I'd be contacting Robb for terms. Starks and Baratheon are natural allies. He's your vassal who needs protecting. As you say Tywin could pin Renly at a ford, but in turn that means Robb and Roose can move to encircle him.

I guess I'm not treating Robb as a rival. By aiding him I'm either going to get him to bend the knee or at least work out some sort of alliance where I'm the more powerful party. He can be King of North, Riverlands and Westerlands, as long as I am High King on top.

[EastTymor]

All good points. I am perhaps optimistic but the advantage of Renly's position is he can make a few risky moves to gain great reward. As you say he wants the whole Kingdom. Right now there are the Lannisters and then Robb Stark (and his potential allies). Robb Stark is going to be more likely to secede if he wins without Renly doing anything. To be King of anything more than Reach and Stormlands he needs to act.

As for the Riverlands. The whole while I'd be contacting Robb for terms. Starks and Baratheon are natural allies. He's your vassal who needs protecting. As you say Tywin could pin Renly at a ford, but in turn that means Robb and Roose can move to encircle him.

I guess I'm not treating Robb as a rival. By aiding him I'm either going to get him to bend the knee or at least work out some sort of alliance where I'm the more powerful party. He can be King of North, Riverlands and Westerlands, as long as I am High King on top.

I agree that the likelihood of a (Renly) Baratheon-Stark alliance is at the root of our disagreement. With that, everything falls into place for a general assault on the Lannisters across as many fronts as possible. Without it, a cautious strategy is better.

The first time I read ACOK, I kept on waiting for everybody to do I wanted them to do and form a grand alliance to curb stomp the Lannisters. Obviously I was greatly disappointed. On subsequent rereads, my take is that the personalities, prejudices, and bannermen of the Big Three prospective coalition members would prevent an alliance, even with no magic. Still like you say, Baratheon-Stark just makes so much sense!

Edited for phrasing

[GallowsKnight]

I agree that the likelihood of a (Renly) Baratheon-Stark alliance is at the root of our disagreement. With that, everything falls into place for a general assault on the Lannisters across as many fronts as possible. Without it, a cautious strategy is better.

The first time I read ACOK, I kept on waiting for everybody to do I wanted them to do and form a grand alliance to curb stomp the Lannisters. Obviously I was greatly disappointed. On subsequent rereads, my take is that the personalities, prejudices, and bannermen of the Big Three prospective coalition members would prevent an alliance, even with no magic. Still like you say, Baratheon-Stark just makes so much sense!

Edited for phrasing

You are right the cautious strategy for the short and medium term is the safest strategy. We also disagree about the feasibility of the alliance.

But I think it's the reason (obviously exlcuding the shadow bab) any such grand alliance never happened. Robb and the Riverlords declare independence because they feel betrayed by the Crown. Renly in turn abandons them and Stannis gets shitty despite no one knowing about the incest until he tells them.

To loosely paraphrase Stannis, you've got to save the kingdom to be king, not the over way around. Had people been acting instead of waiting victory may not have been squandered.

But we can dream of books where the Lannisters are killed mid ACOK and not much happens until the WW invade.

[Beard from Tad Cymru]

It would make an awesome strategy game. You could even add in random events. Stannis preduces a shadow baby and kills x. X switches side. X get red weddinged. Little finger arranges a pact/splits an allience.

[The Dragons Hand]

The Stormlands have mountains and thick forests. You know who doesn't have natural defenses? The Reach.

Plus, it's pretty clear they have been very divided since Aegon's arrival, if not earlier.

Anyone who has played the Clash of Kings mod for Mount and Blade Warband can vouch for the power of those trees.

The Riverlands natural defenses seem underrated.

[averde]

I assume the OP is referring to the number of men they can raise, As the bread basket of Westeros, one of the larger/ easily populated regions, and in probably the most suitable climate in Westeros them having double the men of any other house is not surprising in the least.

[Daemon Blackfyre IV]

OP my take is the reach has very rich soil so farming and grain make everyone wealthy so they probably have more people living there plus nice weather. But that's numbers however they are at a disadvantage defense wise because they are vulnerable from every angle kind of like being Europe in the game risk

[SeanF]

The Reach's historical analogy is medieval France, and I think that offers some good parallels, namely that despite being the most populous polity in western Europe since the fall of the Carolingian Empire, until the 15th century France's power was crippled by the weakness of French kings and the power of local lords and regions. This was exploited by the English during the Hundred Years' War, where they were able to ally with regional powers such as the Dukes of Burgundy to each take huge swathes of the country out of royal control. This was despite the fact that the English were always outnumbered in the field by the French, something which made the victories at Crécy and Agincourt all the more impressive. France only became a truly powerful and unified European state in the aftermath of the Hundred Years' War, and not without considerable modernisation of its governance and army.

A good analogy. In my mind, the Reach has a population of 12-15m, like France pre Black Death. Potentially, it's the greatest of the Seven Kingdoms. But, like the earlier Capets, the Tyrells are first among equals, rather than enjoying the same degree of control as say, thevLannisters.

[devilish]

The reach is rich but not necessarily the most powerful. If that was the case than the rest of the big families would have bend over backwards to have their own children marry one of them which is certainly not the case. Instead Brendan was supposed to marry a Tully and Lysa was promised to Jamie until the littlefinger saga occurred which ended up with her marrying Jon Arryn

So lets analyse the Tyrells and the Reach in greater detail

a - they are certainly rich. However their richness lie on the land (ie fields) which can easily be destroyed in war. A war in Tyrells turf would be disastrous

b - there are multiple powerful families which have more claim to the title of warden of the Reach than they do. Also the military side of the reach is somehow outsourced to another family ie the Tarly

c- Similar to the Riverlands they share borders with almost everyone including the Crownlands, the Westerlands, the Riverlands, the Stormlands and Dorne. Considering A it makes them very vulnerable

d- They have no natural defences

With such weaknesses no wonder why the Tyrells had laid low and took extra care not to make more enemies than strictly necessary. You wont find the Tyrells starting rebellions, kidnapping women out of love/lust or conducting despicable acts which can easily be attributed to them (ex Elia's murder, cutting the head of a renowned bannerman lord etc) cause they cant afford it. In few words the Tyrells are in their place not because they are powerful but because they have managed to balance out the other families enough to justify their role.

[Peon Gayjoy]

No, if you read the books - (I assume you have if you're in this forum - if not the Show Only forum is just a few clicks away) -

Lannister bannermen are conspicuous by their absence. Every other region has lesser houses that are part of the narrative, the Westerlands don't. Unless you count House Clegane, who are more like landed knights, very low on the pecking order. You don't see the Cleganes raising any armies.

I understand that it is a much harder thing to detect the absence of a thing than it is to detect something's presence.

Just go to the wiki and compare the power and influence (which we as readers can only see by their appearance in the narrative) of the respective houses of the realm and you will see it.

The only houses mentioned from the Westerlands are shown to be quite weak.

The Westerlings (one of them married Robb) and their upjumped merchant relatives the Spicers.

You'll remember Ilyn Payne, but his house is portrayed as only slightly better established than the Cleganes.

Same with House Lorch, from whence came the brute Amory - a house of landed knights, incapable of mustering any significant number of troops.

Crakehall - what did they do again? They are portrayed as one of the strongest remaining minor houses, after the main ones (Reyne, Castermere and Tarbeck) were wiped out by Tywin. I'll give you that one. The Crakehalls could probably provide troops if/when the Lannisters call their banners.

House Tyrell has some quite powerful bannermen who are mentioned often in the narrative, including House Tarly, Hightower, The Green Fossaways, the Red Fossaways, Oakheart, Merryweather, ... all capable, obviously, of providing numerous knights, horses and footmen.

Need I go on?

Dude, you are forgetting some very notable and powerful, loyal houses in the Westerlands.

First the obvious distinction you fail to make regarding the Lannisters. There are two branches, those of The Rock, and those of Lannisport (third most populous city in Westeros). Both branches field a combined army of the most well-armed/armored and provisioned soldiers in the kingdom. Notable is the massive amount of crossbowmen Tywin has, more than any other army could afford. Crossbows are expensive, but they punch through plate and can be pre-loaded, among other military advantages. With Tywin or Kevan in command, you can expect harsh discipline among the ranks, and adequate training as well. The core of their forces are large and loyal, under their own houses banner.

Now that I have established that, let's look at two loyal vassals, one of which you overlooked:

The Marbrands. Not only do the Marbrands commit some of the most loyal captains and outriders (Ser Adam, The Marbrand, Tywin's equivalent to Robb Stark's Blackfish) but they are also famed for their breeding of destriers, and it is also said that The Lannisters command the largest detachment of heavy horse in the kingdoms, with many knights as well.

The Crakehalls. You underestimate their prestige and power. Not only that, but they are lead by The Strongboar, noted as one of strongest and most fearsome fighters in the realm. In my mind, a less imposing version of the Tarly's to the Tyrells.

So, as a noble house itself, it fields the largest army in Westeros. Most houses rely on vassal strength to boost those numbers. In addition to that, keep in mind in AGOT the Lannister host Tywin had was about 60,000 strong, and he gave half to Jaime to siege Riverrun. After those losses, they even continue to raise new hosts, of lesser quality, obviously. Also, remember vassals mean less and less when you can recruit your foes own vassals, or the fact they had been marrying with The Freys long enough to ensure their eventual loyalty. And with all that money, of course, sellswords.

Sure, I agree that the Reach has more powerful houses... but I'm inclined to think in the grand scheme any confrontation with the Lannisters toe to toe with Highgarden would end in stalemate, or just as likely Tywin using his calculating diplomatic threats and promises to have the Tyrells thrown down by their own men. That is, assuming this occurred before TBoT5K. As it stands in the books now... The Lannisters are largely spent, but are still in a strong tactical position to guard and protect The Westerlands, which are far more difficult to assault than The Reach. I'm sure Tywin would ( and Cersei will have) have no problem watching all their pretty fields burn.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Dude, you are forgetting some very notable and powerful, loyal houses in the Westerlands.

First the obvious distinction you fail to make regarding the Lannisters. There are two branches, those of The Rock, and those of Lannisport (third most populous city in Westeros). Both branches field a combined army of the most well-armed/armored and provisioned soldiers in the kingdom. Notable is the massive amount of crossbowmen Tywin has, more than any other army could afford. Crossbows are expensive, but they punch through plate and can be pre-loaded, among other military advantages. With Tywin or Kevan in command, you can expect harsh discipline among the ranks, and adequate training as well. The core of their forces are large and loyal, under their own houses banner.

Nope. The Lannisters of Lannisport have nothing worth mentioning. Lannisport belongs to the Rock. Furthermore, there are no more crossbowmen in the West than anywhere else.

So, as a noble house itself, it fields the largest army in Westeros. Most houses rely on vassal strength to boost those numbers. In addition to that, keep in mind in AGOT the Lannister host Tywin had was about 60,000 strong, and he gave half to Jaime to siege Riverrun. After those losses, they even continue to raise new hosts, of lesser quality, obviously. Also, remember vassals mean less and less when you can recruit your foes own vassals, or the fact they had been marrying with The Freys long enough to ensure their eventual loyalty. And with all that money, of course, sellswords.

Don't be confused by the show. 20,000 + 15,000 is not 60,000. Stafford's new host (utter rabble) raises the combined numbers to ~41,000. Including sellswords. That's it.

[stateofdissipation]

If the Reach could really raise twice as many soldiers as any other single kingdom in Westeros is would completely destabilise the balance of the 7 kingdoms, especially when they are immediately adjacent to the Stormlands, Riverlands and Crownlands - 3 regions without natural geographical defenses.

For example, the Lannisters would have been crushed in the WOTFK if the Reach hadnt allied with them - even if Robb hadnt been so spectacularly successful early in the war. The Lannisters were being attacked from North and South and the Riverlands split their communications between the KL and Casterly Rock. The Reach were the natural powerbrokers, whoever they backed would win the war.

In real life, i think if the Reach was really that powerful (and rich) it would have exerted its influence over the most of Westeros. It just kinda annoys me for some reason...

Thoughts?

MDog out.

The Reach borders

Westerlands

Riverlands

Crownlands

Stormlands

Dorne

That is 5 borders to defend...

Twice as many as one is not nearly enough to cover five to one...

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Well said, A Man Has Said

The only information is on Florent: 2,000 men, and considering what we see of Stannis' forces in the books I am inclined to dismiss this number as too low.

[Sullen]

The Reach borders

Westerlands

Riverlands

Crownlands

Stormlands

Dorne

That is 5 borders to defend...

Twice as many as one is not nearly enough to cover five to one...

Change that to 6... Access to the sea is just as good as a border with the Iron Islands.