A Dance with Dragons Release Discussion

[Heal]

Do you guys want to know a secret. George has been lieing to everyone and has finshed ADwD and AWoW and will realease one 6 motnhs after the other to make all his fans happy then begin working on ADoS. This is reliable information because I have been talking with George about it on the telephone and he has told me all of this

Did I get anyone at all? Yes/No?

I believe we will be suspecting a winter 2007 release or a spring 2008 release. I don't know if I can wait another 2-3 years for the next book though. My patience is drawing thin.

[Calibandar]

On a related note, I'm wondering when George will start to settle in for a good long writing spell that he's been talking about. He's been saying how he absolutely cannot write away from home, and how other stuff keeps bothering him, and how the updates keep confronting him with the fact that he has nothing to report Dance with Dragons wise. So now he's just done Boskone, went for the Pizza Crawl but had to cancel, then went to the New York Comic-Con, so another weeks long spell of no writing done. I'm also thinking that those who still maintain it may be finished by May, or sometime in the Summer, must be pretty damn sure that George will settle down and get a heck of lot of writing done in a heck of a short time, in other words, really accelerate the pace he's been maintining sofar. Right? Cause in May there's another con, and in July as well. Oh and in August as well. And in September there's Worldcon. And in November there's another con.

I'm just saying

[Ran]

I plan to get George to spend a couple of months working on the world book, so I wouldn't expect him to start any serious writing until December. Or maybe January.

[Calibandar]

[Padraig]

I plan to get George to spend a couple of months working on the world book, so I wouldn't expect him to start any serious writing until December. Or maybe January.

Excellent

Cal, he has almost 3 months to the next con. I would consider that a good long writing spell. And before he went to Boston, he hadn't a con since mid October sometime (IIRC). So he spent 4 months at home (although admittedly this was the holiday period). I don't see the justification for your complaint.

[Sword of the Morning]

Fair enough but I wonder how much work he got done in those 4 months since his latest and last update didn't really reveal much?

And at his current pace and rate of progress, I wonder what 3 months really means? Maybe another 50 or 60 manuscript pages?

I don't think Martin right now is in any appreciable hurry to finish Dance. He's settled into the long haul of things and I suppose we have no choice but to settle in with him.

Now . . . where was that parentage of Jon Snow thread again?

Dennis

[Padraig]

He probably did a lot less than he hoped over those 4 months. I imagine he hopes to write faster over the next 3 months. I am sure he is eager to finish aDwD but is anxious to do it "right". (i.e as well as writing a very good book, he would want to set things up for the next 2. That's the thing about aSoS. The next book wasn't set up to naturally follow).

[Myrddin]

And at his current pace and rate of progress, I wonder what 3 months really means? Maybe another 50 or 60 manuscript pages?

Even at the snail's pace I'm writing my own book, I can write faster than that -- polished pages, not draft --. (I can only write on average about 6 hours a week - ie when I can get time away from family and job).

Surely a full-time writer like George can do better than that?

Since we don't know his current page count, number of finished chapters, or even percentage of his current draft, it's all speculation anyway... At this rate, I'll finish before he does. Of course, by the time I edit, find an agent, and get a publisher, I'll be lucky to see my book on the shelves with book 6...

[Caligula_K]

Even at the snail's pace I'm writing my own book, I can write faster than that -- polished pages, not draft --. (I can only write on average about 6 hours a week - ie when I can get time away from family and job).

Surely a full-time writer like George can do better than that?

Since we don't know his current page count, number of finished chapters, or even percentage of his current draft, it's all speculation anyway... At this rate, I'll finish before he does. Of course, by the time I edit, find an agent, and get a publisher, I'll be lucky to see my book on the shelves with book 6...

It took Flaubert five years to write Madame Bovary, a 300 page bookin paperback (and a masterpiece, I might add). Different authors take different amount of time when writing, and thats all there is to it.

[Eddard Stark]

It took Flaubert five years to write Madame Bovary, a 300 page bookin paperback (and a masterpiece, I might add). Different authors take different amount of time when writing, and thats all there is to it.

In what way shape or form was Madame Bovary a masterpiece? It was a pathetic excuse for a story - if I wanted to hear about some woman turning herself into the town bicycle, I could bloody well read something from Danielle Steele, or in Penthouse for god's sake. Admittedly, Flaubert has a little more style than your average bodice ripper author, but that's hardly saying much.

That book was a travesty and a waste of my time. Thankfully he didn't manage to get it any longer than 300 pages....

DK

[Caligula_K]

In what way shape or form was Madame Bovary a masterpiece? It was a pathetic excuse for a story - if I wanted to hear about some woman turning herself into the town bicycle, I could bloody well read something from Danielle Steele, or in Penthouse for god's sake. Admittedly, Flaubert has a little more style than your average bodice ripper author, but that's hardly saying much.

That book was a travesty and a waste of my time. Thankfully he didn't manage to get it any longer than 300 pages....

DK

Whatever, to each his own. My point wasn't that Madame Bovary is a great book (and just on the side, your description isn't too accurate; she has affairs with two people, and the whole point of it all is an attack on romanticism); its that some people think it is (just as some people think ASoIaF is) and that good writing can't be constrained to a time period; just because one author can write a good book in 2 months as compared to 10 years is irrelevant to the quality of the book/author.

[Ser Garlan the Gallant]

About a month ago Norman Mailer was on C-SPAN and gave his idea of the difference between professional and amateur novelists. He said that back when he was starting out, he'd blame an unproductive day on a lack of inspiration--the muse was not present. A professional, on the other hand, makes progress each and every day, even the bad ones. Is this a decent definition, or does it now allow that fiction-writing is an art, after all? Then again, he himself writes fiction...

[Sword of the Morning]

About a month ago Norman Mailer was on C-SPAN and gave his idea of the difference between professional and amateur novelists. He said that back when he was starting out, he'd blame an unproductive day on a lack of inspiration--the muse was not present. A professional, on the other hand, makes progress each and every day, even the bad ones. Is this a decent definition, or does it now allow that fiction-writing is an art, after all? Then again, he himself writes fiction...

I agree with Norman Mailer's definition but this is obviously a very controversial point.

And a "professional writer" by no means turns out better work.

With this definition in mind, I do tend to think of Martin as being amateruish . . . but the works he put out when good blows anything else out there out of the water.

The most celebrated fantasy author of them all, J.R.R. Tolkien was by no means a professional writer. In fact, if you read into how he wrote Lord of the Rings you will be shocked at the bone-headed way he went about it. No wonder it took 30 years! But what can you expect? The man was no professional writer, he was an Oxford Don and a linguist by training and inclination. Yet, he put together a work that many consider a masterpiece and a classic.

Right now, it is too early yet to judge where A Song of Ice and Fire stands in the pantheon of great epic fantasies. You'll see some here who already think it is one of the greats when it may not even be half done.

Many, many, many things can still go wrong. Right now, we really have no idea where each character arc is really going, we know next to nothing about the overarching conflict, there's no solid enemy other than some rather poorly imagined zombies, and there really seems to be no end in sight to the story itself.

Of course some of this is to the good because there are lots of twists and surprises left in store which makes reading the story enjoyable. But at a certain point, Martin need to start bringing this together for any of it to make sense and we really better walk into the last two books knowing a LOT more than we do currently.

Martin's concept for the first book of his trilogy expanded into Game, Clash, and Storm. His second book is SUPPOSED to start with Dance with Dragons. I'm not entirely sure how many pre-plotted elements originally slated for Dance are even going to occur as Feast certainly contained none of it (it covered a 5 year gap that Martin was previously going to scrap) and it's doubtful too many will make into Dance with Dragons as much of it will be dealing with the same time period that Feast covered.

If Martin really DID do some pre-plotting and story breakdown before writing this series, then how in the world is he goinig to suddenly catch up and compress events in the middle and final stage when his first stage gave us 3 gargantuan books? There will be changes in pacing that will be very noticeable. We take our time with excruciating detail in books 1-5 and then all of a sudden rush through 6 and 7 into the finale? That just doesn't "feel" right to me. This is similar to the criticism of Jordan's Wheel of Time when we moved through molasses for 4 books and then suddenly go on a break-neck pace in Knife of Dreams where events that have been left to slowly simmer and stew for the last half dozen books are dealt with in mere pages if not paragraphs. Even as a long-time fan and as much as I enjoyed Knife of Dreams, I still felt the unevenness of that pacing.

The same with Song of Ice and Fire. We are SLOWING DOWN, not speeding up in plot development. There are MORE characters, not less. There are MORE loose threads, not less. And the pacing of the writing by far is slower, more deliberate, and more detailed.

I don't necessarily mind as Martin's prose is a joy to read but I hardly see how he can continue this casual, almost languid pace and still finish in only 2 more books after Dance as he originally planned.

I think there will be 8 and likely 9 books total, making the lack of progress and increasing interval between books even more concerning. I can only hope that the ONLY problem he has is with Feast and Dance, that he works through it, finally has a clear idea how to head for home and then goes on a tear like he did with Storm of Swords.

A lot is riding on this now because once Game of Thrones gets going on HBO the train will be off and there will be NO stopping it. Literally tens of millions of dollars will be on the line for Martin to finish this thing up because HBO is NOT going to stand around for 5 years waiting for him to figure out how to deal with Bran in the middle of the series while producers, directors, actors, special effects people, etc are all tapping their feet and looking at their watch.

[Innominandum]

Martin's concept for the first book of his trilogy expanded into Game, Clash, and Storm. His second book is SUPPOSED to start with Dance with Dragons. I'm not entirely sure how many pre-plotted elements originally slated for Dance are even going to occur as Feast certainly contained none of it (it covered a 5 year gap that Martin was previously going to scrap) and it's doubtful too many will make into Dance with Dragons as much of it will be dealing with the same time period that Feast covered.

Wrong. Dorne and Iron Island chapters, for example, are from the prologue and flashbacks from the first ADWD attempt. The title "ADWD" is also still there, which obviously means the events intended to be in ADWD in the first place (even in the trilogy plan) will be in the actual ADWD.

[Nuri Snow]

(...)

Many, many, many things can still go wrong. Right now, we really have no idea where each character arc is really going, we know next to nothing about the overarching conflict, there's no solid enemy other than some rather poorly imagined zombies, and there really seems to be no end in sight to the story itself.

What I fear most is not that the series breaks down - GRRM is too good a writer, he will finish it, it is his greatest work after all. I don't fear the books lose quality, rather that they'll change their character. I concur with you, SotM, that the Others aren't fleshed out very much ATM. But even if Martin fleshes them out, the theme of the book may change. It may move away from political plotting (which I love GRRMs books for) to the great fight of "good versus evil", the beloved "most characters are grey" will lose its central role. I would dislike a quest, and hope the Others will not play a too big role.

(...) Martin's concept for the first book of his trilogy expanded into Game, Clash, and Storm. His second book is SUPPOSED to start with Dance with Dragons. I'm not entirely sure how many pre-plotted elements originally slated for Dance are even going to occur as Feast certainly contained none of it (it covered a 5 year gap that Martin was previously going to scrap) and it's doubtful too many will make into Dance with Dragons as much of it will be dealing with the same time period that Feast covered.

Err, actually Feast contained some of the elements which were pre-plotted. GRRM planned to have a five year-gap, and he did plan not to leave it blank, but instead to tell it in flashbacks. These flashbacks (and more, of course) are in Feast.

AFAIK, the 3-book planning was a concept only at the very beginning of the series, before GRRM actually wrote AGOT? And wasn't storm already the first half of the second (some time originally planned) book?

Edit: Innominandum beat me to it, that's what you get from posting while working...

(...)

If Martin really DID do some pre-plotting and story breakdown before writing this series, then how in the world is he goinig to suddenly catch up and compress events in the middle and final stage when his first stage gave us 3 gargantuan books? There will be changes in pacing that will be very noticeable. We take our time with excruciating detail in books 1-5 and then all of a sudden rush through 6 and 7 into the finale? That just doesn't "feel" right to me. (...)

The same with Song of Ice and Fire. We are SLOWING DOWN, not speeding up in plot development. There are MORE characters, not less. There are MORE loose threads, not less. And the pacing of the writing by far is slower, more deliberate, and more detailed.

(...)

This may be because he had to "fill" the gap, something he hadn't planned. ASOS IMO was fast-paced, it read like that (for me). Never felt like excruciating detail to me.

I think speeding up could be rather easy, if he keeps the fight with the Others short (which I would prefer) - the first part grew because of character development, intrigues etc, all great elements, worth letting the tale grow. After DWD maybe one book for Danys landing, then one book for the fight with the others - would suit me fine. (BTW, I would also love getting 10 books, if the series gets finished sometime. I don't care when, the more the better, love reading the books.)

[Werthead]

The title "ADWD" is also still there, which obviously means the events intended to be in ADWD in the first place (even in the trilogy plan) will be in the actual ADWD.

Yes, this has already been covered. The events at the end of AFFC - Cersei and Margaery's arrest, winter arriving, Brienne meeting UnCat and so forth - were almost certainly events from after the 5-year-gap and would have been in the pre-AFFC version of ADWD.

As I have argued previously, there is little need for GRRM to show us the 'training montage' events in ADWD that he did in AFFC (Brienne's wanderings, Cersei's hamfisted plotting, Jaime's machinations at Riverrun, Sam's lengthy voyage etc), and I would be surprised if ADWD wasn't somewhat faster paced as a result and didn't cover the events already slated for those characters in the pre-AFFC version of ADWD.

By the end of ADWD I think we need to be in a position of:

SPOILER: ADWD

Daenerys having left Meereen, be about to leave or, at absolute worst, making the decision to leave. My call is still that, having defeated the joint Qartheen/Dothraki/Golden Company (?) attack on the city, she gets kidnapped by Victarion and whisked off to Westeros against her will, her forces in pursuit.

The Others to be on the move, if not having attacked the Wall already. My call on this is that whilst Stannis moves against his enemies in the North, Jon avenges the Old Bear by killing the survivors of the skirmish at Craster's Keep, then learns of the Others' advance.

Tyrion to have met up with Dany, if not having helped out her dragon problems already. The timeline means that Tyrion may not arrive at Meereen until the second half or last third of the book. If Tyrion still only has seven chapters, that may mean only 2-3 chapters with Dany (of course, Tyrion can be in Dany's chapters instead, and with 13+ chapters she has a lot more space to play around with).

Given the timeline it may not be possible if ADWD only extends a couple of months past AFFC, but having Marwyn (who leaves Oldtown right at the end of AFFC) meet up with Dany at the end of ADWD would be good as well.

If we're left in positions before these events (assuming they are what happens), I would begin to doubt that the series can be done in seven volumes.

[Padraig]

AFAIK, the 3-book planning was a concept only at the very beginning of the series, before GRRM actually wrote AGOT?

I believe so. He doesn't seem to have written much of aGoT before he realised this series wasn't going to work as a trilogy. Instead he thought he could cover the series in 4 books.

I presume SotM is only talking about aFfC when he talks about the series slowing down. I thought a lot happened in the first 3 books, without it going from one action scene to the next, which is the kind of book I like. And there is no reason why aDwD can't be very eventful. Some have suggested that we would have heard about anything big happening with Dany or in the North but since most people in Westeros still don't know about the existence of Dany, I think we can assume there is a major lag between events happening and events reported. (And GRRM wouldn't want to give away all his surprises).

Every thing GRRM has said still indicates that it will be a 7 book series. Although it would be my first question when aDwD is done. How many more books? He should know by then.

I don't think the series will turn into a "quest" type series. The Others will be faced on the battlefield. But I don't think we'll ever have a simple "good v bad" battle. Westeros has to find a way to unite against the Others and even when it presumably manages this, I don't think everyone will get along hunky-dory. There will still be a lot of tensions and plotting going on. But instead of facing each other on the battle field, they'll face each other around a table. I think it'll be very interesting.

A professional, on the other hand, makes progress each and every day, even the bad ones.

That depends on what you mean progress. Even if an author writes nothing on a given day, he is still a day closer to finishing the book. That's progress of a sort.

If Martin really DID do some pre-plotting and story breakdown before writing this series, then how in the world is he goinig to suddenly catch up and compress events in the middle and final stage when his first stage gave us 3 gargantuan books?

GRRM has described his writing process quite well. A long walk from Point A to Point B, where he knows he has to stop off at a given set of places (Neds death, Red Wedding etc) but he can often take a side road rather than stay on the main road. I'm sure a lot of authors put a lot more structure to their books pre-writing but some probably put even less.

To finish in 7 he simply has to avoid some of those tempting side-roads more. I think he can easily use aDwD to set up the finale of the series.

[Innominandum]

AFAIK, the 3-book planning was a concept only at the very beginning of the series, before GRRM actually wrote AGOT? And wasn't storm already the first half of the second (some time originally planned) book?

Actually no, the Red Wedding was at the end of this AGOT.

[Nuri Snow]

Actually no, the Red Wedding was at the end of this AGOT.

That would have been an impressive book.

Regarding the slow pace in Feast - I haven't reread it, so my final assessment must wait, but I found it only slow-paced when people traveled (Brienne) but I dislike travelogues generally. (Arya bugged me in ACoK too, until she finally arrived Harrenhal.)

Of course, training scenes can be seen as slow-paced too, but I love them, so they don't matter to me. (Loved "Magician" by Feist because of this.) But this results in an argument for a faster pace in books post ADWD: When the training ends and ditto the (scrapped) five year gap, action begins anew.

[mormont]

Actually no, the Red Wedding was at the end of this AGOT.

As I pointed out earlier: this doesn't mean that every single thing in AGOT-ASOS was originally supposed to occur on book 1. The order of events could well have been shifted around. We're talking about an extremely early conceptual stage when we discuss the RW being at the end of 'book 1'. To assume that this means that at the end of ASOS we're one-third through the series would be extraordinarily simplistic.