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Patchface Theory


Chuave

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Hello! I posted this theory in Reddit and got a lot of possitive reviews and got asked to post it here for you guys, I hope you enjoy it. Im probably wrong about half of this so if you have a different theory let me know. Btw, spoiler warning: this covers stuff up to book 5. And finally, sorry in advance for my english, its not my first language.

[introduction]


Patchface was a jester slave in Volantis. In his youth, he was very wit and nimble. Stannis's father bought his freedom and intended to bring him to Storm's End. When his ship was within sight of Storm's End it sinked and everybody in it was killed. Patchface washed up three days later. The man that found him swears to his dying day that his skin was clammy cold, but then he coughed up water and continued living. He is employed as court fool and jester by the Baratheons. After his accident his mind and body are broken.
Patchface is introduced in ACOK, spending most of his time with Shireen. He likes to make rhymes which the other characters belive to be incoherent thoughts of a broken mind, while most readers believe to be of prophetic nature.
TL;DR: My Theory is Patchface died in the sinking and was later revived by the Red God (or the magic behind him, regardless if the Red God exists or not) who now uses him as a vassal. Whenever Patchface makes a rhyme it is actually the Red God speaking through him. All his rhymes are events that happened a long time ago, events that are happening right now or events that will happen soon.

[Patchface as Vassal]


There are three main facts that support this part of the theory. First, he comes from Volantis, one of the strongholds of the Red God. The widow of the waterfront told Ser Jorah: "I think that red R'hllor has more worshippers in this city than all the other gods together."
Second, Stannis's father told his Maestre in a letter before the sinking that he "He juggles and riddles and does magic". There are only 5 real sources of magic in ASOIAF: Valyria, Asshai, Children of the Forest, White Walkers and the Red God.
Third, so far we have seen 3 types of necromancy: White Walkers, Qyburn/Frankenstein and the Red God. Patchface doesnt fit in the Qyburn/Frankenstein type of necromancy; neither with the White Walkers necromancy (their eyes are bright blue, while their hands and feet are black and swollen because of the pooled and congealed blood).
That leaves us with the Red God. Patchface fits perfectly into the Red God style of resurrection because we know (thanks to Beric Dondarrion) that when you are resurrected with the magic of the Red God you forget a lot of your old life, which would explain why he lost his memories after the sinking.

[The Rhymes]


My theory is that Red God speaks through Patchface's rhymes. The rhymes are references of events that happened a long time ago, events that are happening right now or events that will happen soon.
The first group (evens that happened a long time ago) are all the rhymes that cointain the phrase "Under the sea". I believe that under the sea means Valyria.
Why? well, Valyria, as far as we know, is the only city that is actually "under the sea". Valyria used to be a peninsula, but after the Doom the sea shattered the peninsula, and a lot of the terrain was consumed by the Smoking Sea, so part of it is in fact under the Smoking Sea.
The second group are the events that are happening right now and events that will happen soon. There are 6 and half rhymes that doesnt include "under the sea". Some of them state current facts, some of them predict events that already happen by now and some of them predict events that didnt happen yet.

[under the Sea Rhymes]


I belive the reason why we get so many under the sea rhymes is to understand the meaning of certain words, in order to understand the meaning about the rhymes on the events from the present and future. I see them as a sort of Rosetta Stone.
Lets analyse them with the presumption that "under the sea" means Valyria and all of those are things that happen a long time ago.

Under the sea, the birds have scales for feathers. I know. I know.


Thats because Valyrian "birds" are dragons, who have scales instead feathers.

It is always summer under the sea. The merwives wear nennymoans in their hair and weave gowns of silver seaweed. I know. I know


Valyria is located in the south of the Lands of the Long Summer, and there are 14 active volcanoes there. We can safely assume there is always summer in Valyria.
Now, my theory is that merlings (mermen, merwives, and mermaids) are valyrians, because of the "half human half dragon" concept fits perfectly with the "half human half fish" concept of merlings.
So merwives (valyrians) wear nennymoans in their hair and weave gons of silver seaweed. Nennymoans are purple flowers. The two racial characteristic among valyrians are purple eyes and silver-gold hair. So merwives/valyrians have nennymoans/purple-eyes and gons-of-silver-seaweed/silver-hair.

Under the sea no one wears hats


He rhymes this in response to Selyse commanding Maester Cressen to put on Patchface's "crown" (a bucket). If Hat would equal crown, then the statment that in Valyria no one wears crowns make perfect sense, because Valyria was ruled by the Lords Freeholder who didnt wear crowns because they werent kings, but instead noble families.

Under the sea the merman feast on starfish soup, and all the serving men are crabs


As I said, merman are valyrians. They feasted on "starfish soup" and the serving men were "crabs". On one side, there is only one house that has crabs on their sigil: House Celtigar, who are an ancient and proud house with the blood of old Valyria in its veins. We know that 2 families came with the Targaryen from Valyria, the Celtigar and the Velaryon. From those 2 the Targaryen gived Velaryon their naval forces and when no Targaryen was available to marry, the Velaryon were the first option, since you wouldnt want to be married to a servant. This means that the Celtigar/Crabs could easily be servants of the Valyrian during the times of the Valyrian Freehold.
Now, the starfish soup is a bit more complicated. Valyria conquered Essos, and when doing so they pushed the Andals to Westeros and took control of what are now the Free Cities. Now, the Andals main religion is the Faith of the Seven, their bible is he Seven-Pointed "Star" and their mythology states that the first King of the Andals brought down seven stars from heaven to make his crown. So, to me, merman feast on starfish soup is a reference to the Valyrians defeating the Andals, and crabs as the serving men is a reference to the role the Celtigar play in that war (we dont really know much about that war so who knows).

* Under the sea it snows up, and the rain is dry as bone. I know. I know
* Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black


I believe this are references to the Doom. The first one has two parts, "it snows up" could be a reference on volcanic ashes since ash resemblance snow and it originates in the ground rather than from the sky (going up rather than going down).
The second part "rain is dry as bone" could be a reference to something Tyrion said it happen during the Doom: red clouds rained down dragonglass (a volcanic rock).
The second rhyme is what sold this theory to me tbh. "smokes rises in bubbles" is a clear reference to the smoking sea that devoured Valyria. The second part, "flames burn green and blue and black" was a complete mystery to me, until I stumbled upon this gem:
As Im sure you remember, Xaro Xhoan Daxos goes to Meereen to ask Dany to GTFO from Meereon, and in return, he offers 13 ships for her to go to Westeros. The thing is, those 13 ships arent the only things Xaro gifted Dany. He also gifted an old, dusty, faded, huge and beautiful tapestry of Valyria from before the Doom were "The seas are a blue silk sea; the lands are green, the mountains black and brown".
Yeah, Valyria had black mountains, so the flames that burns "green and blue and black" is a reference to the volcanic eruption over the sea, the land and the mountains.

The crow, the crow, under the sea the crows are white as snow, I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.


I belive that this white crows are a reference to the white ravens. They are used to announce the changing of the season so it could be a reference stating that "Winter came to Valyria". He even tells this to Jon Snow, who is from Winterfell, the Winter-is-Comming ones, words use as a form of warning against major changes.

Under the sea, you fall up. I know. I know


Originally, I had no idea what this one meant, at all. However, one of the comments in Reddit pointed a nice theory that may fill this empty slot. Basically, context wise, Patchface tackles Maester Cressen, then, while on top of him, rhymes that. What this could mean is that, wise men here (maesters are kind of westeros's wise men) recive prophecys and ignore them, thus falling down, but in Valyria, wise men who recive prophecys dont ignore them and dont fall up, but rather rise (like what happen to the Targaryens, they flew to westeros and eventually became emperors, so they fell into a better social status).

* Under the sea, men marry fishes.
* Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish.
* Here we eat fish, under the sea, the fish eat us. I know. I know


The last three are the "fish group". As I said before, there are 6 and half rhyme that doesnt include "under the sea". The half rhyme is the last rhyme in this group, while there is an under the sea there, the first part of the rhyme is about Valyria, but rather from events in present day ("Here").
I grouped this in together because the main thing you need to understand is the meaning of the word "fish". The first one is the easy one. What is the only weird matrimonial costume the valyrians have? Incest. This means that "fish" equals "sibling".
By knowing that fish means sibling, we can translate the second rhyme to "In Valyria, the old sibling "eats" the young sibling". Now, what does "eats" means? well, there is another reference to something feasting on something a few rhymes before, and it doesnt exactly mean killing, but rather, conquering or having dominion over. So in Valyria, the older sibling has dominion over the younger sibling. A known fact about Valyria.
Finally, the first half of the last one is a statment about whats going on, while the second half is a statment about Valyria. On the first part, context wise, this rhyme is said just when Stannis has the meeting when he proclaims himself King and plots to get Renly (his younger sibling) murder in order to take back the vassals Renly stolen from him.
The second half is the most complicated one. My theory is that the problem at that moment was Renly had stolen the vassals that belonged to Stannis by heritage. The first part states that Stannis would defeat Renly (kind of a prophecy), while the second part states that in Valyria Renly would have defeated Stannis, because strength was more important than heritage back there, since they were ruled by dragonlords whos right to rule came from their power rather than who their father was.

[Present and Future Rhymes]


The following 6 rhymes are about events that were happening or were going to happen. I will start with the ones that were happening or that already happen by now.

Clever bird, clever man, clever clever fool.


The first one is a statment Patchface makes to Maester Cressen and a White Raven. Maesters are the smartest men and White Ravens are the smartest ravens, so no wonder he says "clever bird and clever man", but then he says "clever clever fool". That means that Patches himself has a very powerful knowledge in his own way (the power of Prophecy).

The shadows come to dance my lord, dance my lord, dance my lord. The shadows come to stay my lord, stay my lord, stay my lord.


This I believe is a prediction to the shadowbinder spells Melisandre uses to kill Renly and get Balon Greyjoy, Robb Stark and Joffrey killed. Keep in mind that he says this rhyme in precense of Melisandre (who replays by saying he is a "clever fool").
Shadows, shadowbinder, shadow assassin; no much needs to be say I guess. On top of that, "dance" has been used several times as a way to say war or battle (Dance of the Dragons and Dance over Harrenhal). Obvious reference to the killing of Renly.
And then, if we want to dig deeper, "my lord, my lord, my lord", and again "my lord, my lord, my lord". Three times, three lords. This could be a reference to the shadowspell Melissandre uses to get Balon, Robb and Joffrey killed. Remember, three false kings, three leeches, three deaths.

Fool's blood. King's blood, blood on the maiden's thigh, but chains for the guests and chains for the bridegroom, aye, aye, aye.


I think everybody (including myself) agrees this is the red wedding. The Fool (Aegon Frey) and the King (Robb Stark) are killed. The battle starts at the bedding of Edmure Tully (the bridegroom) and Roslin Frey (the maiden). Surviving guests and the bridegroom end up imprisioned.

In the dark the dead are dancing.


At this point, the rhymes get way more dark. At the Wall Ser Narbert is talking to Val about how he though all giants were dead. So yeah, Patchface says that "in the dark" (any form of White Walker territory would fit here) "the dead" (probably talking about undead giants due to context) "are dancing" (dancing can mean either killing of fighting). So yeah, undead giants incoming in book 6/7, GET HYPED!

Away, away, come with me beneath the sea, away, away, away.


Patchface sings this to Shireen, so I expect her death in the books have some correlation with the Red God and/or Patchface.
As I said before, I believe whenever Patchface makes rhymes it is actually the Red God speaking through him, but you cant really tell this until this last two rhymes, because he never rhymes about himself (past the I know I know). The one telling "come with me" to Shireen -which we know means she is going to die- tell us her death will be related to Red God, and Patchface rhymes it as if he was the Red God telling her that.

I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.


Last one, and my favourite one. This to me is the big one. He starts with a "I will lead it!". I believe this rhyme is a statment/prophecy from the Red God himself as if He (the Red God) will lead it. The rest of the rhyme makes us believe that the "it" he leads is the Battle for the Dawn.
So the next part of the rhyme is basically a prophecy about Euron/Victarion/Moqorro and the Dragon Horn. It states that they "will ride seahorses", as in ships (keep in mind Dothraki call ships wood horse), and "mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming". First, I believe the seashell is Euron's Dragon Horn. Second, I believe Dany is the Mermaid.
Finally, I believe this tells us Dany will blow the Horn and tame her dragons with it. Euron's plan will ultimately fail. Why? Because, as I said, its the Red God who is saying "I will lead it!", and he only cares about the Battle for the Dawn, so he will use Dany as his champion and the blow of the horn will announce their coming.
Simply put, Dany has his army and his ships (thanks to Victarion). The only thing she lacks is control over her dragons. Once she has that she will head to Westeros.

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Melisandre think he is dangerous, she never says she fears him. Think of what would take for her to get him killed, just a whisper in Sylyse's ear and he is dead, so I doubt she fears him, nor she thinks he is evil. She does think he is somehow relevant in the Red God's plan.



I do have a theory about what her vision means, but is really complicated and I dont wanna diverge the theory about Patchface that much since her visions are completely irrelevant if you just wanna know what Patchface is talking about.


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Chauve, I wonder if you've come across my Astronomy of Ice and Fire essays. I was listening to the ACOK prologue where we meet Patchface just yesterday, and I am fairly certain I have interpreted his sayings (in this chapter at least) as references to the (this is my theory) destruction of the second moon which used to exist, which was destroyed by a comet and caused the Long Night.

Thing is, many of your conclusions here are similar, except that you don't have the astronomy scenario in mind, which acts as a larger frame for all of these pieces. You came to similar conclusions through a different approach, which is of course very interesting. Mermaids, sea dragons, meteors landing under the sea - all these are a part of this moon destruction picture. I think if you take a look at my theory, you might find added context which will refine a few of these ideas.

Let me know if you've seen any of my stuff - I'd like to give you my interpretation of the Pathcface stuff from that chapter, but need to know what kind of introduction is needed.

Nice work here. :)

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Loved your post Chuave.

The horn's glyphs say that " no mortal man shall blow the horn and live". I think Dany is the mermaid who will blow the horn/ seashell to bind her dragons. She is not a man. She will live.

Thanks :)

Euron's horn blower had burnt out lungs. Dany is know as "The Unburnt". So yeah, she will blow the thing.

Chauve, I wonder if you've come across my Astronomy of Ice and Fire essays. I was listening to the ACOK prologue where we meet Patchface just yesterday, and I am fairly certain I have interpreted his sayings (in this chapter at least) as references to the (this is my theory) destruction of the second moon which used to exist, which was destroyed by a comet and caused the Long Night.

Thing is, many of your conclusions here are similar, except that you don't have the astronomy scenario in mind, which acts as a larger frame for all of these pieces. You came to similar conclusions through a different approach, which is of course very interesting. Mermaids, sea dragons, meteors landing under the sea - all these are a part of this moon destruction picture. I think if you take a look at my theory, you might find added context which will refine a few of these ideas.

Let me know if you've seen any of my stuff - I'd like to give you my interpretation of the Pathcface stuff from that chapter, but need to know what kind of introduction is needed.

Nice work here. :)

Thanks.

Your post seem quite long. I have bookmarked it. There will come a day when I read it, but it is not this day.

Arryn - birds

Targ/Dragons/Blackfyre - scales

i.e the Arryns will support Aegon.

I belive all the "under the sea" rhymes talk about Valyria, not events that are going to happen.

On top of that, there are no Arryns left to support Aegon.

"Clever bird, clever man, clever clever Fool," Said Patchface,jangling."Oh clever clever clever Fool."

This guy creeps me out, he obviously knows about Bloodraven.

I dont know if he "knows" anything. I think he is more a vessel for the Red God, much like Hodor is a vessel for Bran when he wargs into him.

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Indeed. My theories draw on heavy correlation and interpretation of text, so they tend to run long. Whenever you get time, you may find some ideas to help you.

When I get home later I'll see if I can explain my take on the Patchface stuff without launching into the depths of my theory.

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Do you know something the rest of us don't?

What do you mean?

The under the sea = Valyria is my theory, which I explained in deep in the OP.

The thing about Arryns is just a fact. There are no more Arryns in control of the Vale, Little Finger controls the Vale, and Sweetrobbin is going to die pretty soon (or, if theories are correct, much much much worst).

Could Patchface prophecies be somehow related to battle for Winterfell and the whole Stannis thing faking his own death? Because under the sea could also mean death for him.

I highly doubt it. As far as we know, Stannis death is a show thing only, nothing released in TWOW so far proves it.

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What do you mean?

The under the sea = Valyria is my theory, which I explained in deep in the OP.

The thing about Arryns is just a fact. There are no more Arryns in control of the Vale, Little Finger controls the Vale, and Sweetrobbin is going to die pretty soon (or, if theories are correct, much much much worst).

I highly doubt it. As far as we know, Stannis death is a show thing only, nothing released in TWOW so far proves it.

Robert Arryn is still alive and Petyr wouldn't have the Vale's support if there were no more Arryns. The Vale will declare for Aegon.

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That was one of the most enjoyable reads I've had on here for a while!

Thanks!

I find him utterly creepy, and incredibly important to the endgame in my humble opinion.

Do you have any ideas of what his future role might be?

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Second, Stannis's father told his Maestre in a letter before the sinking that he "He juggles and riddles and does magic". There are only 5 real sources of magic in ASOIAF: Valyria, Asshai, Children of the Forest, White Walkers and the Red God

Says who? You think the Moonsingers (who Mirri Maz Duur learned from, and who guided the Braavosi), the Faceless Men, the Undying Ones, Maesters who study magic (including Qyburn), wargs, etc. don't have any magic? And there's no magic in Leng or Yi Ti or anywhere else? And there's nothing magical about the curse on Yeen and Zamettar, or the appearance of the Seastone Chair, or the various other Lovecraftian references scattered around TWoIaF?

Also, as GRRM explicitly says, "the relation between the religions and the various magics that some people have here is something that the reader can try to puzzle out". Just because Mel attributes her power to R'hllor doesn't mean there actually is a god R'hllor who directly interacts with the world. He also says, "We're not going to have [a god] appearing, deus ex machina, to affect the outcomes of things, no matter how hard anyone prays," and yet you're claiming that's exactly what Patchface is.

Finally, if Patchface already did magic before drowning, why does he need a new source of power in the first place? Why can't he still have whatever magical power he had before, but now filtered through a "broken" mind instead of a normal one?

The first group (evens that happened a long time ago) are all the rhymes that cointain the phrase "Under the sea". I believe that under the sea means Valyria.

Why? well, Valyria, as far as we know, is the only city that is actually "under the sea". Valyria used to be a peninsula, but after the Doom the sea shattered the peninsula, and a lot of the terrain was consumed by the Smoking Sea, so part of it is in fact under the Smoking Sea.

But that's not what the text says. It says the ruined city is on an island, and that island is separated from the rest of Valyria's lands by the Smoking Sea. So, the city itself is not under the sea.

Also, we do have legends of cities that actually are buried under the sea. Not to mention Drowned Town, a definitely real part of Braavos that's now a few stories underwater, with only the upper floors of a few tall buildings still above the surface of the lagoon and inhabitable.

Now, my theory is that merlings (mermen, merwives, and mermaids) are valyrians, because of the "half human half dragon" concept fits perfectly with the "half human half fish" concept of merlings.

How does this fit? Dragons are not fish. The hairy men are described as half ape, and nobody things they're mermen. Also, the mermen are implicated in things like the Seastone Chair and other elements of the Drowned God religion, the demise of the Mazemakers of Lorath, the gods of the Thousand Islands, and other things that are far away from Valyria and seem to have nothing to do with it.

Also, Valyrians don't have much to do with the sea. The delved deep into mountains, and they flew in the air on dragons. I'm sure they also did some fishing and trade and so forth, but it's not what they're known for. The Ironborn and the Rhoynar both seem like much better candidates for merlings and "under the sea". And the Rhoynar have associations with crabs and starfish, while for the Ironborn, there's that reference to the Doom as the krakens strangling the dragons.

Finally, the idea that the Celtigar are the former servant class of Valyria seems pretty unlikely. We're told that they're an "ancient and proud" house, which would be an odd description if they were actually the house servants of Valyria only recently elevated to noble status by Aegon I. Also, it would be more than a little odd to name your head waiter as your first Master of Coin.

I belive that this white crows are a reference to the white ravens. They are used to announce the changing of the season so it could be a reference stating that "Winter came to Valyria".

But when did that happen? Valyria wasn't destroyed by winter, but by fire and volcanos, almost the exact opposite.

I grouped this in together because the main thing you need to understand is the meaning of the word "fish". The first one is the easy one. What is the only weird matrimonial costume the valyrians have?

Bigamy.

Incest.

That too. Also, they apparently merged their weddings and coronations, unlike the Andals. And they probably had plenty of other weird customs.

This means that "fish" equals "sibling".

By knowing that fish means sibling, we can translate the second rhyme to "In Valyria, the old sibling "eats" the young sibling". Now, what does "eats" means? well, there is another reference to something feasting on something a few rhymes before, and it doesnt exactly mean killing, but rather, conquering or having dominion over. So in Valyria, the older sibling has dominion over the younger sibling. A known fact about Valyria.

So from something that's unique to Valyria, you derived something that's the same in Valyria as it is in most other cultures we know about, including the Andals and First Men?

And then, if we want to dig deeper, "my lord, my lord, my lord", and again "my lord, my lord, my lord". Three times, three lords. This could be a reference to the shadowspell Melissandre uses to get Balon, Robb and Joffrey killed. Remember, three false kings, three leeches, three deaths.

Most readers are pretty sure that Mel's leeches did not kill the kings. Maybe Mel mistakenly thought they did. Or maybe she foresaw their deaths and used the leeches to trick Stannis into believing she was responsible.

By the way, notice that Mel's visions generally seem much more unambiguous than they actually are, while Patchface's seem to be the opposite--it's hard to understand "Fool's blood. King's blood, blood on the maiden's thigh, but chains for the guests and chains for the bridegroom, aye, aye, aye" in advance, but far harder to misunderstand it as meaning something different. That seems strange if their source is the same.

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"Clever bird, clever man, clever clever Fool," Said Patchface,jangling."Oh clever clever clever Fool."

This guy creeps me out, he obviously knows about Bloodraven.

You might say he has firsthand knowledge. It's Bloodraven speaking through him, just like he does with the ravens, and he's practically pointing to his name tag here.
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But that's not what the text says. It says the ruined city is on an island, and that island is separated from the rest of Valyria's lands by the Smoking Sea. So, the city itself is not under the sea.

Also, we do have legends of cities that actually are buried under the sea. Not to mention Drowned Town, a definitely real part of Braavos that's now a few stories underwater, with only the upper floors of a few tall buildings still above the surface of the lagoon and inhabitable.

Actually if you look at the map it is quite clear that some parts of Freehold are now under the sea. Yes, Valyria as a city is now on a island, but Valyria was just one part of the freehold. So Valyria is as much under the sea as Drowned Town. And as such 'under the sea' could refer to Valyra in that context.

Chuave

I don't agree with everything but it is a cool theory. I don't know if I have ever seen a Patchface theory that would consider this angle. Patchface rhymes are normally interpreted as a future or present thing. The part about seahorses and mermaids is normally interpreted as Manderlys (mermaids) and Aurane Waters (seahorses) helping Stannis. But I really like this version.

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