Direwolf Blitzer

Manderly Wrote the Pink Letter

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I more or less stole all this from Apple Martini's GNC thread http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/77828-the-great-northern-conspiracy-reexamined/

 

But why not? Wouldn't Jon marching on Winterfell actually fit the plans of the conspiracy perfectly?

 

To quote Apple,

 

 

 

And to keep going with Manderly, the insanely analytical Tze once made a point of dissecting the songs that Manderly called for at Ramsay and Jeyne's wedding. All of them have to do with the Night's Watch. Not only that, but all of them send a pointed message in their own way, with context. Manderly has killed and served the three missing Freys = The Rat Cook. Jeyne is a girl disguised as someone she isn't = Brave Danny Flint. Then there's The Night That Ended, in which the Night's Watch rides out and saves the day. Manderly is also pretty jovial about all of this. What if his song selection is his subtle way of teasing/goading the Boltons, knowing what's going on behind the scenes? It almost smacks of someone coming up and saying, "I've got a secret but I'm not going to tell you." Taken together as a whole, the song collection basically says, "I'm onto what you're trying to pull (Danny Flint), but I've drawn blood already under your nose (The Rat Cook), and ultimately my side's going to win (The Night That Ended)."

 

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Very interesting theory, Manderly's song choice does seem to be symbolic. Edited by Eddy of the Godswood

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But does he know everything he would need to know? About Mance Rayder, for example. 

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The song choices are at the very least more than happenstance. Just the fact that this info made it past the massive edits thee books take is telling as well. Good/sound theory. I guess we'll find out sooner or later.

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The GNC is a fun, well-fleshed out theory. And not one I can take any credit for. But if you think of the connection of those songs to the night's watch (rather than their connections to eating people, disguised women, etc), then the mind does wander.

 

I think the question is: Did the author of the letter expect Jon to march? Almost certainly. I think whoever wrote it knows Jon isn't the type to surrender an innocent woman to Ramsay, even if it's not his sister.

 

But why would Ramsay or Roose want this? Only Jon's allies benefit from Jon marching on Winterfell. At best, it's a break-even for Jon's enemies. I mean, do Roose or Ramsay really care if Jon is still alive, as long as he keeps his NW vows and stays out of the politics of the realm?

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Manderly is fat not a troll.

I agree there are some interesting song choices but why would he send the Pink Letter to Jon?

He believes he already has Rickon Stark to rally the North why would he need the NW or Jon?

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Manderly is fat not a troll.

I agree there are some interesting song choices but why would he send the Pink Letter to Jon?

He believes he already has Rickon Stark to rally the North why would he need the NW or Jon?

 

Precisely if he already has a trueborn son of Ned Stark he doesn't need Jon. It was Mance who sent the letter.

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Precisely if he already has a trueborn son of Ned Stark he doesn't need Jon. It was Mance who sent the letter.

I think i would rather stick with Ramsey.....but a close second would be Mance.

Stannis is too respectable to troll Jon like that after Jon helped advise him to win some of the North..

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Still think it was Ramsey..

 

[spoiler] Based on bad information from Stannis [/spoiler]

Edited by The Sword of the Evening

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Jon marching to WF is in favor of Northern Conspiracy but what would Manderly do with Val and Mance's child? If he is working with Mance then it would make sense though. And in that case it would be a plan of Lord Wyman, Mance and R. Glover all together. 

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Still think it was Ramsey..
 
[spoiler] Based on bad information from Stannis [/spoiler]


I just can't see it being Ramsey. There is too much information that he is unlikely to know ( pertaining to Mance, Val and his child) and because he is wrong about Theon and Jeyne's whereabouts. I only read the books once ( including the preview chapters of AWOW).....what are the timelines for the letter? Meaning did Jon's final chapter take place well after the last Theon chapter?

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I doubt that is was Manderly for main reason that I don't think the letter was wrote by someone who was for Jon/Starks. I think the letter was wrote by someone who wanted to provoke Jon into rash action/disaster or miscalculated drastically. I don't think Manderly is the guy who would wish Jon ill or would make such a mistake, neither is Stannis.

 

The letter has so much info, that I sincerely doubt its Ramsey, even if he did manage to torture Mance/Spearwives. The truth of their appearance is so convoluted that Ramsey (and most people) would not believe such confession, I think Mance would tell Ramsey want he wanted to hear (aka being agent of treacherous northern lords and of Stannis). Same for Mance, there is zero reason for Mance to write such letter.

 

I believe that letter was provocative and it miscalculated in its aim. It was mean to provoke Jon into getting his Night Watch brothers and wildlings into the army and actually start helping Stannis other than with advice and platitudes, and it miscalculated in Jon's favorability standing with the Nightwatch and their reaction to such provocative actions. There is only one person who constantly miscalculates, makes error in her predictions and still remains ABSOLUTELY convinced that she is correct and that's Melisandre. She knew Mance, Lord of Bones, Spearwives identities, she knew "Arya" escaped, and she has enough magic to fake Bolton's seals

Edited by Masha

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Whoever wrote it either never stopped to think what would happen at the Wall when news of Stannis's death got out, or they intended to create chaos there.

 

If the logistics allowed it, I'd suspect Littlefinger, just from the "Let's shout 'FIRE' in this crowded theater and see what happens of which we can take advantage." aspect of it.

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Interesting! 

 

While I question whether Manderly would have written the letter, it's worth considering whether someone besides Ramsay did. After all, for once it wasn't explicitly stated that the letter was written in blood.

 

I think that Masha makes a compelling point about it potentially being Melisandre:

 

I doubt that is was Manderly for main reason that I don't think the letter was wrote by someone who was for Jon/Starks. I think the letter was wrote by someone who wanted to provoke Jon into rash action/disaster or miscalculated drastically. I don't think Manderly is the guy who would wish Jon ill or would make such a mistake, neither is Stannis.

 

The letter has so much info, that I sincerely doubt its Ramsey, even if he did manage to torture Mance/Spearwives. The truth of their appearance is so convoluted that Ramsey (and most people) would not believe such confession, I think Mance would tell Ramsey want he wanted to hear (aka being agent of treacherous northern lords and of Stannis). Same for Mance, there is zero reason for Mance to write such letter.

 

I believe that letter was provocative and it miscalculated in its aim. It was mean to provoke Jon into getting his Night Watch brothers and wildlings into the army and actually start helping Stannis other than with advice and platitudes, and it miscalculated in Jon's favorability standing with the Nightwatch and their reaction to such provocative actions. There is only one person who constantly miscalculates, makes error in her predictions and still remains ABSOLUTELY convinced that she is correct and that's Melisandre. She knew Mance, Lord of Bones, Spearwives identities, she knew "Arya" escaped, and she has enough magic to fake Bolton's seals

 

Especially after Mel and Jon had the following encounter:

 

“A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?”    

 

“All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope.”    

 

“A fool’s hope.” Jon turned and left her.

(ADWD Ch. 70)

 

It's in Mel's interest to make Jon believe that she correctly foresaw the letter, so as to make him put more stock in her abilities (and thus give her more power over him) ... Which he does after getting the letter, thinking to himself, 

 

"Melisandre … look to the skies, she said.” He set the letter down. “A raven in a storm. She saw this coming.” (ADWD Ch. 70)

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I had not thought of Melisandre, but that makes a lot of sense. Mel's fortunes are so tied to Stannis', it would make sense that she'd want him to march. And if he arrived at Winterfell to find Stannis still alive, well, hey; all she said was there was a letter coming. She never claimed to know its contents, or whether they were true.

 

What got me on Manderley (perhaps with a Mance assist) was thinking of who benefits from the likely outcome. Certainly, Mel benefits. Hm!

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Just re read this chapter. I cant go back for some reason on my kindle app but just wanted to throw this out there...

The man who brought the letter to Jon. He was described as not looking as himself and terribly pale and shaking.

Would this hint at it being on of Melisandres disguises?

Also, why cant we assume Ramsey has gotten all this information out of mance, stannis amd whoever else be could torture to get answers out of.

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Just re read this chapter. I cant go back for some reason on my kindle app but just wanted to throw this out there...

The man who brought the letter to Jon. He was described as not looking as himself and terribly pale and shaking.

Would this hint at it being on of Melisandres disguises?

Also, why cant we assume Ramsey has gotten all this information out of mance, stannis amd whoever else be could torture to get answers out of.

 

Yes provided you think Ramsay actually won. Which I doubt he did.

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Jon marching to WF is in favor of Northern Conspiracy but what would Manderly do with Val and Mance's child? If he is working with Mance then it would make sense though. And in that case it would be a plan of Lord Wyman, Mance and R. Glover all together. 

 

I don't think the letter's author expects to get Mance's kid, or anything else. Would anyone, even Ramsay, expect Jon to respond to that letter by turning over the people named in it?

 

Whoever wrote it either never stopped to think what would happen at the Wall when news of Stannis's death got out, or they intended to create chaos there.

 

If the logistics allowed it, I'd suspect Littlefinger, just from the "Let's shout 'FIRE' in this crowded theater and see what happens of which we can take advantage." aspect of it.

 

True that. Two questions on that: Is chaos at the wall a predictable result? And who would want it? I'd give a qualified yes to the first one - some people, people who know a little about the Watch and the wildlings, could predict it. So, Mel, Mance, Stannis, etc. But as to who benefits... I don't know. I can't think of anyone other than the conspiracy of assassins, but might that be sort of a blunt instrument? 

 

Bonus question: Why did Bowen Marsh, et. al, even bother killing Jon? Why not let him take the wildlings to Winterfell? Marsh can be Interim Lord Commander, and if he's lucky, Jon gets killed in battle along with most of the wildlings, and he doesn't even need to launch a coup. It just takes care of itself.

 

Just re read this chapter. I cant go back for some reason on my kindle app but just wanted to throw this out there...

The man who brought the letter to Jon. He was described as not looking as himself and terribly pale and shaking.

Would this hint at it being on of Melisandres disguises?

Also, why cant we assume Ramsey has gotten all this information out of mance, stannis amd whoever else be could torture to get answers out of.

 

I think it's entirely plausible Ramsay could have all this information. 

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I just can't see it being Ramsey. There is too much information that he is unlikely to know ( pertaining to Mance, Val and his child) and because he is wrong about Theon and Jeyne's whereabouts. I only read the books once ( including the preview chapters of AWOW).....what are the timelines for the letter? Meaning did Jon's final chapter take place well after the last Theon chapter?

 

He only need to torture Mance to know ALL. Look what he did to Theon, he know how to torture.

 

He doesn't know about Jeyne and Theon whereabouts because they when to The Wall before battle started and he wasn't been able to find them. Simple as that.

Edited by Lady Winter Rose

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I just gotten to read this theory website - Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire - and I was just so impressed with their theories. They looks VERY realistic predictions about how GRRM likes to write, especially their theories for Jon, Dany and Battle of Ice part.  

Their theory is that Ramsey might have written the letter because Stannis and Northmen made a play to trick Ramsey to think that he had won, that Stannis is dead by presenting him with Stannis's sword and all, and as Ramsey pulls back into WF has a bit of time to write a pink letter, all of Northmen short of Karstarks and perhaps Lady Dustin, turn on Boltons and attack along with Stannis. 

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