Here's Sanderson's recent update to Stormlight #3

[Magnar of Skagos]

Slightly disappointing. Back in the day, Brandon said that Way of Kings was going to be the longest book in the series by far and the rest would be saner in size and he'd get them out every 18-24 months. It'll be unfortunate if that's not going to happen. Also, it makes the series rather unsustainable at 3 years per book (minimum) for a 10 book series. If Book 4 comes out in 2020 - ten years after Book 1 - that's going to be a bit of an issue at completing the series in a reasonable timeframe, especially given the mid-series gap he's going to take to do the second proper Mistborn trilogy.

I thought I heard somewhere that the "gap" is only a story gap, where he jumps the timeframe ahead 5 years or so?

[Werthead]

He'll probably still get it done before Martin finishes Ice & Fire.

Assuming the between-book gaps hold steady and don't get longer, the final Stormlight book will come out in 2038. I think we can safely say that this will not be the case.

I thought I heard somewhere that the "gap" is only a story gap, where he jumps the timeframe ahead 5 years or so?

The mid-season gap is where he takes a break to write the Mistborn II trilogy, and then after Stormlight he's planning to write the seven-volume (!) Dragonsteel series and the Mistborn III trilogy.

[Rhom]

If this is his magnum opus, I think that's reasonable though.  Imagine if Terry Brooks had envisioned the Shannara books as not just a trilogy, but a life's work.  He's been playing in that same sandbox for nearly 40 years.  Its not unreasonable for Sanderson to do the same.  Although, he needs to bring it to a reasonable conclusion at book 5 if that is to be the case and not leave it as open as the ending of books 1 and 2.

[Werthead]

The difference is that Shannara isn't one story, it's just a bunch of stories strung together one after the other. The Cosmere does have a really big, over-arcing megastory that will encompass 10 Stormlight books, 13 Mistborn books, 7 Dragonsteel books, 3 (at least) Elantris books, 2 (at least) Warbreaker books, the "Big Book of Hoid" and maybe a few stand-alones, not to mention the White Sand graphic novels. By making the Stormlight books so big and the gaps between them so large, the chances of this entire structure paying off in a reasonable timeframe are reduced.

Brandon's smart enough to know this and I suspect will be considering some kind of response. Reducing the number of Stormlight books or concluding that there is no need for the later books to be so huge is the easiest solution.

[TheRevanchist]

The difference is that Shannara isn't one story, it's just a bunch of stories strung together one after the other. The Cosmere does have a really big, over-arcing megastory that will encompass 10 Stormlight books, 13 Mistborn books, 7 Dragonsteel books, 3 (at least) Elantris books, 2 (at least) Warbreaker books, the "Big Book of Hoid" and maybe a few stand-alones, not to mention the White Sand graphic novels. By making the Stormlight books so big and the gaps between them so large, the chances of this entire structure paying off in a reasonable timeframe are reduced.

Brandon's smart enough to know this and I suspect will be considering some kind of response. Reducing the number of Stormlight books or concluding that there is no need for the later books to be so huge is the easiest solution.

Not counting the new Stormlight book, this means that he need to write another 28 books to complete it. With one book each year (which I think is his speed, not counting the other non-Cosmere books), it means that he'll finish it around 2043. He'll be around 70 years old by then.

One problem is that his writing speed very likely will decrease while he gets older (see Jordan, Martin etc). I just can't see him finishing Cosmere as planned, so I guess he will either need to make less Stormlight books or cut Dragonsteel. Or you know, become even faster, which is near impossible (Abrahams is even faster than Sanderson, right?). 

[SkynJay]

The obvious answer is to take the James Patterson approach and start farming out the actual writing while providing detailed outlines and keeping creative control.

[Werthead]

Sanderson's speed is a little overstated. Abnett and Erikson both used to be a lot faster. Abraham's pretty fast but his books are relatively short so he's probably not as fast as the others.

Sanderson's output is a little more illustory, tied to writing short-to-medium-sized novels and novellas alongside the massive big novels and then timing them to come out in a way that appears to suggest he's writing tons of books simultaneously when it's a little more sequential, and he's writing 100% new draft material for the next book whilst waiting for line edits on the last book, whilst other writers would be taking a break.

[TheRevanchist]

The obvious answer is to take the James Patterson approach and start farming out the actual writing while providing detailed outlines and keeping creative control.

The day he does that is the day I will stop reading his books.

Sanderson's speed is a little overstated. Abnett and Erikson both used to be a lot faster. Abraham's pretty fast but his books are relatively short so he's probably not as fast as the others.

Sanderson's output is a little more illustory, tied to writing short-to-medium-sized novels and novellas alongside the massive big novels and then timing them to come out in a way that appears to suggest he's writing tons of books simultaneously when it's a little more sequential, and he's writing 100% new draft material for the next book whilst waiting for line edits on the last book, whilst other writers would be taking a break.

Agree. He is fast, but not the fastest (despite his reputation).

He also mentioned doing three things at the same time: writing a novel, starting thinking - making notes -  for a new novel, and editing some novel he has written before.

It also helps that he had a ton of drafts for novels before he even started publishing anything. He had already did careful planning for Mistborn, Stormlight etc - if not first drafts - way before he published Elantris.

[elarte]

Assuming the between-book gaps hold steady and don't get longer, the final Stormlight book will come out in 2038. I think we can safely say that this will not be the case.

I think it absolutely will be the case.  No way Martin ever actually finishes his series.  

[MisterOJ]

So apparently, there is no current general Brandon Sanderson thread, so I'll just leave this here.

Brandon has written his "State of Sanderson" for the year, which highlights everything he has worked on in 2015 and outlines his plans through 2022. It's really lengthy, but I find it fascinating. 

Just a cut and paste of his general outline:

January 2016: Wax and Wayne 3
February 2016: Reckoners 3 (final book)
June 2016: Alcatraz 5
Sometime 2017: Stormlight 3
Sometime 2017: Rithmatist 2
Spring 2018: New YA project 1
Fall 2018: Wax and Wayne 4 (final book)
Sometime 2019: Stormlight 4
Sometime 2019: New YA project 2
Sometime 2020: Elantris 2
Sometime 2020 New YA project 3 (final book)
Sometime 2021: Stormlight 5 (ending of first arc)
Sometime 2022: Elantris 3 (final book)

[End of Disc One]

Wow, White Sand is looking pretty good

[Darth Richard II]

What the fuck is White Sand?

[SkynJay]

What the fuck is White Sand?

mostly quartz

[Werthead]

White Sand is one of the Cosmere novels that Brandon actually finished writing in mega-early rough draft years and years ago, along with Elantris, Way of Kings (both heavily rewritten before release) and Liar of Partinel (the planned first book in the Dragonsteel series, which is way way off). Apparently it was one of the cornerstones of the whole setting, along with those books and the Mistborn series. However, over the years it looks like Sanderson has decided it's not as critical to an understanding of the whole cosmere, and kept dialling it back down from a novel series to a single novel to maybe a novella. I get the impression he didn't quite know what to do with it until these guys suggested doing it as a graphic novel, which it now is.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

mostly quartz

ZING!

[Gormenghast]

10 Stormlight books, 13 Mistborn books, 7 Dragonsteel books, 3 (at least) Elantris books, 2 (at least) Warbreaker books, the "Big Book of Hoid"

 

January 2016: Wax and Wayne 3
February 2016: Reckoners 3 (final book)
June 2016: Alcatraz 5
Sometime 2017: Stormlight 3
Sometime 2017: Rithmatist 2
Spring 2018: New YA project 1
Fall 2018: Wax and Wayne 4 (final book)
Sometime 2019: Stormlight 4
Sometime 2019: New YA project 2
Sometime 2020: Elantris 2
Sometime 2020 New YA project 3 (final book)
Sometime 2021: Stormlight 5 (ending of first arc)
Sometime 2022: Elantris 3 (final book)

So, Sanderson in 2021 is 45.

If Mistborn books can fit within the Stormlight part 2 writing cycle, and he keeps the pacing, then Stormlight is finished around 2032, Sanderson would be 56. Which is still "plausible".

That leaves time to write the Hoid book and then the Dragonsteel series, assuming that's some sort of wrap-up.

It's a close call and can work only if Sanderson really sticks to the plan. The problem up to this point was that Sanderson decided to plug in multiple new projects instead of sticking to Stormlight. So if he doesn't add more stuff he could still hypothetically match the plan.

(Stormlight book 3 is relatively on time, since he could finish the writing relatively early in 2016, and he could already begin writing book four within the same year, if he wanted to. Book 2 was delayed because he still had to write Memory of Light.)

[TheRevanchist]

 

So, Sanderson in 2021 is 45.

If Mistborn books can fit within the Stormlight part 2 writing cycle, and he keeps the pacing, then Stormlight is finished around 2032, Sanderson would be 56. Which is still "plausible".

That leaves time to write the Hoid book and then the Dragonsteel series, assuming that's some sort of wrap-up.

It's a close call and can work only if Sanderson really sticks to the plan. The problem up to this point was that Sanderson decided to plug in multiple new projects instead of sticking to Stormlight. So if he doesn't add more stuff he could still hypothetically match the plan.

(Stormlight book 3 is relatively on time, since he could finish the writing relatively early in 2016, and he could already begin writing book four within the same year, if he wanted to. Book 2 was delayed because he still had to write Memory of Light.)

I find this quite optimistic, but really, I cannot see him managing that.

He will become slower IMO, when he gets older. Unless he joins the dark side, and hires other authors to write for him, he won't be able to finish Cosmere. He writes now a couple of books per year, but when he is on sixties/seventies, I really doubt that he would be able to do that. We are seeing that with Martin (who was quite profilic when he was young), we saw that happening with Jordan. I think it is very likely that while he ages, he will also slow down a bit.

[Gormenghast]

I find this quite optimistic, but really, I cannot see him managing that.
He will become slower IMO, when he gets older.

I too don't believe it, but it's a different matter. Between Stormlight 1 and 2 he did write Memory of Light. So he can definitely, and easily, write 1 big book every two years. One Stormlight every 18 months is not plausible, but one every two years is definitely something he can do.

But it's not age the threat to his speed. It's popularity. Popularity kills EVERY writer.

See Gaiman who now can get away writing a 100 page book in huge print. The more friends he makes, and the more conventions he goes to, the more he learns he can achieve as much by writing a fraction of what he writes now and make others do the work for him.

So I can see that trend that already began: see him sidetracked to a number of smaller, low-maintenance side-projects. Like comic-books and the like.

[sperry]

I too don't believe it, but it's a different matter. Between Stormlight 1 and 2 he did write Memory of Light. So he can definitely, and easily, write 1 big book every two years. One Stormlight every 18 months is not plausible, but one every two years is definitely something he can do.

But it's not age the threat to his speed. It's popularity. Popularity kills EVERY writer.

See Gaiman who now can get away writing a 100 page book in huge print. The more friends he makes, and the more conventions he goes to, the more he learns he can achieve as much by writing a fraction of what he writes now and make others do the work for him.

So I can see that trend that already began: see him sidetracked to a number of smaller, low-maintenance side-projects. Like comic-books and the like.

Mostly just depends on if he enjoys the writing process. Can't comment on Gaiman, but Martin pretty clearly does not enjoy writing ASOIAF, and does enjoy the conventions and the side projects, while obviously no longer needing to crank out books from a financial perspective

[Darth Richard II]

55 is extreme old age? Is it the 1600s again?

also you need to take the Gaiman hare boner you have somewhere else bro, no one bought into your bullshit last time.