How could the Greyjoys hold Moat Cailin?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I believe ironsborns could mobilized about 20 thousands fighting men, listen, balon greyjoy's plan is not some kind of mad man's folly, he knew the civil war of the realm is about to break out which could last years, so it is a perfect time to rise again. And it makes perfect sense that he chooses his first target as Starks, main military force of the North has marched south, the entire coast region of the North is now defensless, all he needs to do is to strike, capture and hold some strategically important points such as Moat Cailin, shut the North army in the south, and establish bases along the coast, from which he could launch raids all over the realm.

I do not understand why Balon should help Robb to fight Lannisters, that would be a hard fight and it would be much more difficult to establish and maintain bases in westerland, Unless, of course, it is because "I love Starks soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much? Why don't you help them, HOW DARE YOU ATTACK THEM!!!"

Works fine. Right up until the moment the Ironborn realise "Oh fuck, there are a bunch of Northmem with an overland route to us".

 

Asha for example never planned on defending Deepwood Motte, should the Northmen ever pay them a visit. It's right in the chapter where she bashes Theon for trying that with Winterfell.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Deepwood is ridiculously easy to take (being a wooden castle surrounded by forests which can hide the enemy), had few defenders who were being led by a woman who had never fought in her life and was probably scare for her children's life, and not to mention it took a month to take. 
Torrhen's square could not have been taken by Dagmer as long as it had its garrison (he says so himself) - Dagmer took an empty castle. I could capture Casterly Rock itself with 20 men if there was no one to defend it.

 
Yes, the North was lightly defended. That is why Balon picked it.
 

Works fine. Right up until the moment the Ironborn realise "Oh fuck, there are a bunch of Northmem with an overland route to us".
 
Asha for example never planned on defending Deepwood Motte, should the Northmen ever pay them a visit. It's right in the chapter where she bashes Theon for trying that with Winterfell.

 

Where does she say that she was never going to defend DM?

[marsyao]

Works fine. Right up until the moment the Ironborn realise "Oh fuck, there are a bunch of Northmem with an overland route to us".

 

Asha for example never planned on defending Deepwood Motte, should the Northmen ever pay them a visit. It's right in the chapter where she bashes Theon for trying that with Winterfell.

 

That was when most of her men had gone with Euron, you would not think Ironborn can not defend themselves, wouldn't you?

[marsyao]

If capturing the north isn't his plan why does he style himself as king in the north? Why does he say that wf might defy us but only for a year? Or the rest will yield or fall.

 

Did you see him launch invasion into the internal part of the North? No, because he stayed at the coast, why can he occupy the coast? Becasue the main military force of the North had marched south, so the North can not moblize an army to fight him there.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

 

That was most of her men had gone with Euron, you would not think Ironborn can not defend themselves, wouldn't you?

A thousand men light infantry in a wooden pisspot against the entire force of the North? Come on, be serious.

[Barty]

 
Yes, the North was lightly defended. That is why Balon picked it.
 

 

Where does she say that she was never going to defend DM?

Lightly held? Rodrik gathered 2000 men in little time. Stannis gains 3000 men by marching through some mountains, Wyman Manderly still has more cavalry than Bolton (at least 1500 if my calculations are correct), Ramsay can gather 600 heavy horse in no time - and this is after Roose takes away the cream of the Bolton army and Ramsay looses an unknown number of men to both the Manderlys and Rodrik. 

Sure there were parts of the North that were lightly held - but overall it had enough men to match the IB if not to outnumber them. 

[Bobby b's bobby]

 
Did you see him launch invasion into the internal part of the North? No, because he stayed at the coast, why can he occupy the coast? Becasue the main military force of the North had marched south, so the North can not moblize an army to fight him there.

You just ignored what I said didn't you. I know he stayed near the coasts and the moat but he still declared himself king in the north and thought he'd have the capital inside the year and that every lord would yield or fall.

[marsyao]

You just ignored what I said didn't you. I know he stayed near the coasts and the moat but he still declared himself king in the north and thought he'd have the capital inside the year and that every lord would yield or fall.

 

It was just a title, the fact that he never bother going into the internal part of the North clearly show conquering the North is not his plan

[marsyao]

A thousand men light infantry in a wooden pisspot against the entire force of the North? Come on, be serious.

 

Ironborns wear armour

[Bright Blue Eyes]

 

Ironborns wear armour

So what? Heavy infantry would be using pikes and work in formation.

 

Tactical role is the difference between light and heavy infantry. The Ironborn raiders are clearly light infantry, whatever they wear.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Lightly held? Rodrik gathered 2000 men in little time.

It took him more than two months, personally I don't think it was that quick.
 

Stannis gains 3000 men by marching through some mountains,

Sure. Men poorly equipped going to sacrifice themselves because it was Winter. Just look how many were killed by the Ironborn despite being grossly outnumbered at Deepwood Motte.
 

Wyman Manderly still has more cavalry than Bolton (at least 1500 if my calculations are correct),

Maybe, maybe not.
 

Ramsay can gather 600 heavy horse in no time

We know that a portion was horsed, not that they all were.

- and this is after Roose takes away the cream of the Bolton army

Where is that stated?
 

and Ramsay looses an unknown number of men to both the Manderlys and Rodrik.

Sure. A dozen, fifty? Who knows?
 

Sure there were parts of the North that were lightly held

Yup, the parts that Balon targeted.

 

- but overall it had enough men to match the IB if not to outnumber them.

Not according to Robb who was returning and in desperate need of the Freys to help him regain the North.

[Blackfish Tully]

 

Not according to Robb who was returning and in desperate need of the Freys to help him regain the North.

 

I think you are overestimating Robb's desperate need for the Freys to retake the North . He was desperate not to have an angry Frey army at his back when he attacked Moat Calin but he did not need them to retake the North. I'm sure he would have loved to have Freys with him when he went North because the more men men he had the faster he could drive out the Ironborn and head back South.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

I think you are overestimating Robb's desperate need for the Freys to retake the North . He was desperate not to have an angry Frey army at his back when he attacked Moat Calin but he did not need them to retake the North. I'm sure he would have loved to have Freys with him when he went North because the more men men he had the faster he could drive out the Ironborn and head back South.

 

I'm just going by his words.

 

"We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope."

[Bright Blue Eyes]

It took him more than two months, personally I don't think it was that quick.

Of course. The North is big. Simply marching from one end to the other takes two to three months.
 

Sure. Men poorly equipped going to sacrifice themselves because it was Winter. Just look how many were killed by the Ironborn despite being grossly outnumbered at Deepwood Motte.

All sixteen of them? Stannis' men don't even consider the affair a battle.

[Blackfish Tully]

 

I'm just going by his words.

 

"We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope."

 

I believe he's referring to the success of him winning the overall war and especially taking Moat Calin . With the Freys against him he will have a very difficult time taking Moat Calin plus the Riverlands would be in much bigger danger from the Lannisters and Tyrells with the Freys as enemies. 

With the Northmen he has plus the Northmen he would pick up in the North he should be able to drive the Iron Born off without much trouble . 

[Frey Pie]

Where does he state that bending the knee falls out of his options?
 
Balon tells Asha that bending the knee must always be an option, for a defiant man dies defiant, while one who bends the knee can rise harder and stronger when the time allows it.
 
He never "changes his plan", hell, he was murdered before his initial plan was even over.

Forgive me if I am wrong but in his initial outline of his "plan" does Balon mention bending the knee once the Iron Throne has a competent leader again?

[Barty]

It took him more than two months, personally I don't think it was that quick.
 

I dont know where you are getting the 2 months number - But I'll assume its true. Consider that the North is enormous, these people will probably be walking all the way and that Rodrik really doesnt call the muster properly till WF falls and he hears of it - so that would mean after he defeats Dagmer. 

 

Sure. Men poorly equipped going to sacrifice themselves because it was Winter. Just look how many were killed by the Ironborn despite being grossly outnumbered at Deepwood Motte.
 

How many? 20?30? 50? These men were Asha's finest - veterans of a hundred raids.

Maybe, maybe not.
 

Well if you are not going to believe Wyman Manderly himself then I certainly am not going to be able to convince you

 

We know that a portion was horsed, not that they all were.

 

We see that they were mounted during the battle of WF. There is no mention of them being on foot. We know there were 600 at the battle of WF. Perhaps you are implying that Ramsay also bought foot but we dont see them mentioned - could be. But consider that Ramsay is in a hurry - he needs to get to Theon before Rodrik can take it and get behind the safety of its walls. He wont allow himself to be slowed down by foot.

 

Where is that stated?

 

Its common sense - Roose takes away at least 3500 men. 

 

Sure. A dozen, fifty? Who knows?
 

According to Rodrik Bolton men and Manderly men were slaughtering each other for quite some time. And they were present in strength large enough that Rodrik states that he does not have the strength to stop the fighting. So make your assumptions on the number of deaths. 

Yup, the parts that Balon targeted.

Except MC where we have established he lost a 1000 men if not more. Also he expected to take WF within a year - so WF was also his target. 

Not according to Robb who was returning and in desperate need of the Freys to help him regain the North.

 

The North may have had the men but it didnt have a leader - who can Robb write to take on the mantle to defend all of the North? Lord too fat or Lady Dustin?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

All sixteen of them? Stannis' men don't even consider the affair a battle.

 Still in denial?

 

Behind her Grimtongue shouted, "Nine, and damn you all."

 

One Ironborn member slaughtered nine by himself of the poor equipped and trained Mountain clan members desopite their vastly superior numbers.

 

A lot, lot more than 16 were killed.

 

 

I believe he's referring to the success of him winning the overall war

Not in context of the conversation he was having.

 

"How will you get the northmen to the north?" her brother Edmure asked. "The ironmen control the sunset sea. The Greyjoys hold Moat Cailin as well. No army has ever taken Moat Cailin from the south. Even to march against it is madness. We could be trapped on the causeway, with the ironborn before us and angry Freys at our backs."

"We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope.

 

He needs the Freys to retake the North.

[Frey Pie]

 
 
No, clearly it wasnt. If the men in the North were of any decent quality then Robb would not be so dependent on the Freys and his army in the South to win back the lost North.
 
"The ironmen control the sunset sea. The Greyjoys hold Moat Cailin as well. No army has ever taken Moat Cailin from the south. Even to march against it is madness. We could be trapped on the causeway, with the ironborn before us and angry Freys at our backs." "We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope.
 
You might want to fantasize about hidden Northern armies, but I only really want to talk about the books and not your fanfiction.

God that's cringe worthy. Every troop I mentioned there is clearly in the books. If your level of debating is that bad...

I'm not debating that Robb took the better men, in large part he did.

But it should be obvious why Robb needs to go home. Ironborn in the north is one problem. His others- capital a ruin, brothers dead, no heir, civil war over the Hornwood lands. The ironborn are just one of the problems that Robb needs to attend to in the north (they caused others) but it is obvious he needs to go back. No other lord can do all this

He needs the Freys for men, supplies, holding the Riverlands (strategic value of their lands) and for getting to and from the north. They're of paramount importance and he was a fool for pissing them off

[Blackfish Tully]

Not in context of the conversation he was having.

 

"How will you get the northmen to the north?" her brother Edmure asked. "The ironmen control the sunset sea. The Greyjoys hold Moat Cailin as well. No army has ever taken Moat Cailin from the south. Even to march against it is madness. We could be trapped on the causeway, with the ironborn before us and angry Freys at our backs."

"We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope.

 

He needs the Freys to retake the North.

 

It's all in how you look at it . He does not need the manpower of the Freys to retake the North once he gets through Moat Calin but he does need them not be against him so he can retake Moat Calin . I'm assuming once they take Moat Calin the Freys would stay in the Riverlands and prepare for the Lannister/ Tyell invasion and not go North with Robb but I really don't remember if that was discussed in the books or not. .