Jump to content

How could the Greyjoys hold Moat Cailin?


Stork in the North

Recommended Posts

 Still in denial?

 

Behind her Grimtongue shouted, "Nine, and damn you all."

 

One Ironborn member slaughtered nine by himself of the poor equipped and trained Mountain clan members desopite their vastly superior numbers.

 

A lot, lot more than 16 were killed.

Please, count them. I did. Sixteen. Nine for Grimtongue, seven for Asha, Quarl, Quellon and the unnamed girl. That's it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

It took him more than two months, personally I don't think it was that quick.
 

I dont know where you are getting the 2 months number - But I'll assume its true. Consider that the North is enormous, these people will probably be walking all the way and that Rodrik really doesnt call the muster properly till WF falls and he hears of it - so that would mean after he defeats Dagmer. 

 

They sent out raevns for help as soon as Torrhnes Square was taken.

 

"The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts. Cley Cerwyn was bringing three hundred more to join them on the march, and Maester Luwin had sent ravens before them, summoning levies from White Harbor and the barrowlands and even the deep places inside the wolfswood. Torrhen's Square was under attack by some monstrous war chief named Dagmer Cleftjaw."

 

Sure. Men poorly equipped going to sacrifice themselves because it was Winter. Just look how many were killed by the Ironborn despite being grossly outnumbered at Deepwood Motte.
 

How many? 20?30? 50? These men were Asha's finest - veterans of a hundred raids.

 

And they were against 4,000ish. There should have been barely any casualties.


Maybe, maybe not.
 

Well if you are not going to believe Wyman Manderly himself then I certainly am not going to be able to convince you

 

No, I take his word that he has more cavalry. He is the richest Lord pretty far South(in the North) and we have seen how useless horses are in the North during winter.

 

We also don't know how many heavy horse Roose has.

 

We know that a portion was horsed, not that they all were.

 

We see that they were mounted during the battle of WF. There is no mention of them being on foot. We know there were 600 at the battle of WF. Perhaps you are implying that Ramsay also bought foot but we dont see them mentioned - could be. But consider that Ramsay is in a hurry - he needs to get to Theon before Rodrik can take it and get behind the safety of its walls. He wont allow himself to be slowed down by foot.

 

That may be, there is not confirmation that they were all on horse.

Where is that stated?

 

Its common sense - Roose takes away at least 3500 men. 

 

No, common sense shows that he doesn't. Not when you add up the various Lords at Winterfell that constitute the 12k gathered there. There is little chance that it is over 3k.

 

Sure. A dozen, fifty? Who knows?
 

According to Rodrik Bolton men and Manderly men were slaughtering each other for quite some time. And they were present in strength large enough that Rodrik states that he does not have the strength to stop the fighting. So make your assumptions on the number of deaths. 

 

That is more about how little Rodrik has.


Yup, the parts that Balon targeted.

Except MC where we have established he lost a 1000 men if not more. Also he expected to take WF within a year - so WF was also his target. 

 

When have we established that?


Not according to Robb who was returning and in desperate need of the Freys to help him regain the North.

 

The North may have had the men but it didnt have a leader - who can Robb write to take on the mantle to defend all of the North? Lord too fat or Lady Dustin?

 

The same person Lord too fat had leading his men in Hornwood?

 

And does this not make Balons plan even more likely to succeed? Keep Robb out or Robb dies in the South and there is no one to organize the Norths army making it easier for them to take it.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

God that's cringe worthy. Every troop I mentioned there is clearly in the books. If your level of debating is that bad...

 

Don't come crying to me because the books dont back up your fanfiction.

 

 

It's all in how you look at it . He does not need the manpower of the Freys to retake the North once he gets through Moat Calin but he does need them not be against him so he can retake Moat Calin . I'm assuming once they take Moat Calin the Freys would stay in the Riverlands and prepare for the Lannister/ Tyell invasion and not go North with Robb but I really don't remember if that was discussed in the books or not. . 

Moat Cailin is in the North, it is about 200 miles away from the Twins.

 

"Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin."

 

He needs the Freys to retake the North, without them he has no hope, his words not mine.

 

 

 

Please, count them. I did. Sixteen. Nine for Grimtongue, seven for Asha, Quarl, Quellon and the unnamed girl. That's it.

Is there only 5 Ironborn?

 

However to show you that you it was clearly more than 16 and that your counting skills are off.

 

"Five. We killed two before they could get over, and Harl slew another on the wallwalk. These two made it to the yard."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forgive me if I am wrong but in his initial outline of his "plan" does Balon mention bending the knee once the Iron Throne has a competent leader again?

 

Asha recalls it in ADwD, his whole speech about the importance of bending the knee isn't there for nothing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In a swamp?? Good luck

 

"Everyone said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built in all the same, just to show them. It sank into the swamp. So I built a second one. And that one sank into the swamp. So I built a third. That burned down, fell over, and then sank into the swamp. But the fourth one stayed up..."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't come crying to me because the books dont back up your fanfiction.
[/i][/b]

Which troops did I mention that are not in the books? Dustin and Ryswell are in Dance. 600 men with Ramsay are in storm. The men fighting the civil war are in clash. The clans men are in dance. Literally every troop I mentioned and several that I didn't are in the books. Manderly mentions his men in Dance and Rodrik broke Dagmer in clash.

That is not fan fiction and tbh your making even less sense then usual saying it is
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
Asha recalls it in ADwD, his whole speech about the importance of bending the knee isn't there for nothing.

Fair play to him, that's a nugget of wisdom

Although if his plan was always to bend the knee to the eventual winner then I question him crowning himself
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Which troops did I mention that are not in the books? Dustin and Ryswell are in Dance. 600 men with Ramsay are in storm. The men fighting the civil war are in clash. The clans men are in dance. Literally every troop I mentioned and several that I didn't are in the books. Manderly mentions his men in Dance and Rodrik broke Dagmer in clash.

That is not fan fiction and tbh your making even less sense then usual saying it is

 

And yet they were not enough to defend themselves against the Ironborn. Robb feels he needs an army of 12k to have a chance.

 

Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.

 

And that is after he he has learnt that Balon has died and that some of the Ironborn had left for the Kingsmoot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

And yet they were not enough to defend themselves against the Ironborn. Robb feels he needs an army of 12k to have a chance.

 

Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.

 

And that is after he he has learnt that Balon has died and that some of the Ironborn had left for the Kingsmoot.

 

Robb does not feel he needs 12K to have a chance, he could take it with less men but why do that when you can take it with overwhelming odds. If he had another 8K men he would send 20K against Moat Calin but that does not mean he needs 20K to take it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Wait, what?

 

Can you supply the quote that states they only have a few thousand men? Or that the Ironborn are 300 years behind those two settlements in terms of technology(if that is what you are saying)?

 

They probably have 25-30,000 total, but 10,000 of these (the best) are just sitting around Moat Cailin, Asha only has 1,000, Theon only ~300, plenty of the Ironborn seem to have stayed home (most of Harlaw's strength is nearby. There are other offensives against the Stoney Shore and Sea Dragon Point but these men were probably in small groups since Aeron was the only know commander in the area after Theon left. With no support from the locals and limited logistics they would have difficulty maintaining large lander armies.

 

They are 2-300 years behind the mainland because they are still largely in the Viking age; spears, axes, almost exclusively mail, no cavalry, few missile troops, whilst the forces of mainland Westeros are more mid-late middle ages/ arguably renaissance; heavy cavalry, plate armour relatively common, pikes, massed archers and crossbowmen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And yet they were not enough to defend themselves against the Ironborn. Robb feels he needs an army of 12k to have a chance.
 
Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.
 
And that is after he he has learnt that Balon has died and that some of the Ironborn had left for the Kingsmoot.

As I pointed out earlier the north needs Robb to return. He's needed to set the realm at peace and to return order to it. He needs to get rid of the ironborn, start work on winterfell, pay honour to his dead brothers, stop the war over the Hornwood lands, and possibly even install an heir. He also needs to restore the faith of the north in him and to do so he need to go home.

Now another named man could do some of this, but not all of it. George has said not just anyone can rule the North. It must be a Stark and Robb's the only one around

Seriously you just have to think about it logically for a minute. Robb knows some ironborn have left. So there's a few thousand tops left up there. We already know that there are thousands of mountain men. We know that there are men left in the Umber, Karstark, Manderly and Bolton lands. Does Robb not know any of this? Of course he does. But they need him there to give them a singular purpose. That's why the Stark name is key

And it's not just in the north. Imho with the vale or west in the same situation the need would be similar. It's why people take the great house names in times of need
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

And yet they were not enough to defend themselves against the Ironborn. Robb feels he needs an army of 12k to have a chance.

 

Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.

 

And that is after he he has learnt that Balon has died and that some of the Ironborn had left for the Kingsmoot.

 

Actually he suspects Victarion might leave to make his claim, this is before Victarion actually does leave, he believes he will be going up against most of the 10,000 Vic had initially.

 

Why you assume he would need the Freys for his entire northern campaign? The most logical thing to do is to dismiss them once Vic is defeated so they can defend the Trident. Once he is past the Moat he should know that he can get as many heavy horse as they bring him from White Harbor, and another 600 from the Dreadfort, since according to you he knows the exact disposition of all northern forces at all times.

 

And they defend themselves just fine, but that includes White Habor, the Rills, the Barrowlands, and so on, and not the entire north. I think it is a bit over the top that some of them don't try to coordinate to fight the Ironborn, but it is what it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where does he say that he needs a army of 12K to have a chance?

 
The fact that he says that without the Freys he has no hope.
 
said Robb. "By now he may have done it. There has been no news for a long while. And what of the Trident, if I turn north? I can't ask the river lords to abandon their own people."
 
Yet his plan is just that, needing the Freys to abandon their lands and travel hundreds of miles North.
 
 

Actually he suspects Victarion might leave to make his claim, this is before Victarion actually does leave, he believes he will be going up against most of the 10,000 Vic had initially.

He's fairly certain.
 
"Euron Greyjoy is no man's notion of a king, if half of what Theon said of him was true. Theon is the rightful heir, unless he's dead . . . but Victarion commands the Iron Fleet. I can't believe he would remain at Moat Cailin while Euron Crow's Eye holds the Seastone Chair. He has to go back."
"There's a daughter as well," Galbart Glover reminded him. "The one who holds Deepwood Motte, and Robett's wife and child."
"If she stays at Deepwood Motte that's all she can hope to hold," said Robb. "What's true for the brothers is even more true for her. She will need to sail home to oust Euron and press her own claim."
 
But yes, he is not sure. That is probably why he is thinking of his own death as he knows his plan could fail.
 

Why you assume he would need the Freys for his entire northern campaign?

 
I don't. Moat Cailin is the main part, which is in the North. Not on the border but firmly in the North
 
He needs the Freys to retake the North as without Moat Cailin there is no chance of retaking the North as we are told both by Robb and Balon that it is the key.
 
 

As I pointed out earlier the north needs Robb to return.

 
That is another reason why Balons plan is so good. Robb could just as easily die South and going by your logic, with no Robb there is no one left to unite the North meaning an even easier time for the Ironborn.


They are 2-300 years behind the mainland because they are still largely in the Viking age;


When does the author make that claim?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
The fact that he says that without the Freys he has no hope.
 
 

 

But that does not mean he needs a 12K army to have a chance. 12K just happens to be the number he has . It's not just that he needs the Freys but that he he has little hope if not only he does not have the Freys but also they would be  working against him if he did not get them back on his side. . 3K soldiers moving from his side of the ledger to the Lannisters side plus the strategic value of the Twins would make his job to take the North and save the Riverlands much harder. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But that does not mean he needs a 12K army to have a chance. 12K just happens to be the number he has . It's not just that he needs the Freys but that he he has little hope if not only he does not have the Freys but also they would be  working against him if he did not get them back on his side. . 3K soldiers moving from his side of the ledger to the Lannisters side plus the strategic value of the Twins would make his job to take the North and save the Riverlands much harder.


You seem to be ignoring the quote.

"By now he may have done it. There has been no news for a long while. And what of the Trident, if I turn north? I can't ask the river lords to abandon their own people."

 

Why is he asking the Freys to abandon the Twins if he does not need them? Is he just being an asshole?

 

Infact Robbs whole plan requires numbers to have a chance.

 

"You cannot mean to attack up the causeway, Your Grace," said Galbart Glover. "The approaches are too narrow. There is no way to deploy. No one has ever taken the Moat."

"From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You seem to be ignoring the quote.

"By now he may have done it. There has been no news for a long while. And what of the Trident, if I turn north? I can't ask the river lords to abandon their own people."

 

Why is he asking the Freys to abandon the Twins if he does not need them? Is he just being an asshole?

 

Infact Robbs whole plan requires numbers to have a chance.

 

"You cannot mean to attack up the causeway, Your Grace," said Galbart Glover. "The approaches are too narrow. There is no way to deploy. No one has ever taken the Moat."

"From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men.

 

But he does not say that he needs 12K to take Moat Calin it just happens to be what he has at the time . If he had 8K or 10K men he still should have the same chance . The men coming from the north and west is what will take Moat Calin not the men in the South,  8K men coming up thru the causeway would still be the distraction they would need to take the Iron Born in the rear. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

But he does not say that he needs 12K to take Moat Calin it just happens to be what he has at the time . If he had 8K or 10K men he still should have the same chance . The men coming from the north and west is what will take Moat Calin not the men in the South,  8K men coming up thru the causeway would still be the distraction they would need to take the Iron Born in the rear. 

 

He does. He needs those men to stand a chance. His words, not mine. He goes on to say

 

"Your attack must be so fierce that the ironborn have no leisure to wonder if anyone is creeping down on them from the north."

 

This is similar to his strategy to distracting Tywin by sending a huge army to face him.

 

He needs as many men as he can get, that is why he takes them all. At no point does he say he can do it with less like you are suggesting. He says that even with the Freys and Victarion and other Ironborn leaving he still only has a CHANCE of success. His words.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

He does. He needs those men to stand a chance. His words, not mine. He goes on to say

 

"Your attack must be so fierce that the ironborn have no leisure to wonder if anyone is creeping down on them from the north."

 

This is similar to his strategy to distracting Tywin by sending a huge army to face him.

 

He needs as many men as he can get, that is why he takes them all. At no point does he say he can do it with less like you are suggesting. He says that even with the Freys and Victarion and other Ironborn leaving he still only has a CHANCE of success. His words.

 

so 8K men would not work ? what about 9K ? or 10K ? or 11.5K ? 

it really  has to be 12K to work ? 

If he had only 11K would he still try it or would he give up ? 

He takes 12K not because that's the amount he needs but because that's what he has. This idea that he needs 12K or it will not stand a chance just isn't true.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...