NBA Season 2015 - 16 Bow to the Brow

[Relic]

On another note, can we take a moment to reflect back on the Laker's Grand Plan from two/three years ago, that summer with all the major transactions? How that would have turned out? 

 

 

The funny thing is that the Bus brother, Jim, has one more year to make the Finals or he's getting kicked out by his sister. It's fair to say that his plan was a total disaster. 

[Calibandar]

Its easy to say that it was stupid after the fact, but with the information they had at that point, it doesn't seem like a bad decision. Its like saying you shouldn't draft Oden or Embiid now but Griffin was injured his first year too and he is doing great. 

Well, my point was really that even with the information they had at the time, that would never have worked in 99% of circumstances. Nash was always going to be very old even in season 1. Bryant was already well past his prime by then and while they did not foresee the specific injuries, it was quite feasible they'd be coming in the 2/3 seasons following, him being 34 at the start of that deal. The only thing that could have gone either way IMO, was Howard. And that went the wrong way, so consider if he'd actually signed on with the Lakers long term. 

 

[Proudfeet]

Well, my point was really that even with the information they had at the time, that would never have worked in 99% of circumstances. Nash was always going to be very old even in season 1. Bryant was already well past his prime by then and while they did not foresee the specific injuries, it was quite feasible they'd be coming in the 2/3 seasons following, him being 34 at the start of that deal. The only thing that could have gone either way IMO, was Howard. And that went the wrong way, so consider if he'd actually signed on with the Lakers long term. 

Of course you could say, look where they are now. But in that case they would of course not have had Randle and Russell ( though it's wait and see on both of these).

I don't see it. They couldn't have predicted Nash's rapid decline. Nash wasn't old just because he signed with them, he was already old when he was still with Phoenix. Bryant was having one of his better seasons before his injury if I remember correctly. Foreseeing injuries is bullshit. By that logic, it would have been Duncan or Dirk who went down last season instead of Durant. Speaking of Dirk, Dallas signed Chandler after he was coming off multiple injuries. That worked out decently enough for them didn't it.

Really, you are still looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Randle and Russell being good or not is irrelevant. If they went for the complete rebuild like Boston, they could probably have them both plus a couple more picks. They chose to try for more championships and it didn't work out, so they have failed terribly. They took risks and it just so happened that most of it fell on the bad side and didn't pay off for them. And what was the alternative? Keeping Bynum? Which other point guard was available other than Nash?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

People keep saying this, but the Cavs didn't exactly have the luxury of waiting for him to develop.  LeBron came back, and LeBron has a shelf life.  He's turning thirty-one in less than a month and he's got a ton of miles on his legs.  It made much more sense for the Cavs to make moves to win now with LeBron coming back than it did to hope that Wiggins developed into a star player in four or five years (because he's definitely not there yet).

You have to understand...the second LeBron released his letter, the goal in Cleveland shifted from building around youth to winning immediately, and Wiggins just wouldn't have had a place there.  You don't draft a guy that high and then yank him for making mistakes.  You've got to give lottery picks time to play through mistakes, but you also can't do that on a contending team.  Wiggins would have been riding the pine constantly last year on the Cavs because their goal inevitably became to win, and because of that he certainly wouldn't have developed the same way.

I don't think anything you said was wrong, just that it may turn out to be very short sighted. I guess only time will tell.

On a totally different note, Jahlil Okafor is having a really bad week off the court.

[Relic]

I don't think anything you said was wrong, just that it may turn out to be very short sighted. I guess only time will tell.

You get LeBron in the last years of his prime you aren't thinking long term. 

[briantw]

I don't think anything you said was wrong, just that it may turn out to be very short sighted. I guess only time will tell.

Sometimes you have to be shortsighted in pursuit of a championship.  The Cavs went all-in.  Even if they fail to win a championship, it was the right move given the situation they were in.

Aside from that, I really don't see Wiggins as a future top-five player in the NBA.  He just doesn't have the overall game for that.  To be in that class as a guard or forward, I think you have to have elite court vision, and Wiggins just doesn't have that.  He also rebounds poorly for a guy his size, and he isn't an elite shooter either, nor are there any indications that he'll ever become one.  I could see him becoming a great defender and a good shooter, but I think to be top five in the league you need to be more well-rounded than that.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

You get LeBron in the last years of his prime you aren't thinking long term. 

I get that, but as I've said, I think they could have gone about it differently.

Sometimes you have to be shortsighted in pursuit of a championship.  The Cavs went all-in.  Even if they fail to win a championship, it was the right move given the situation they were in.

Aside from that, I really don't see Wiggins as a future top-five player in the NBA.  He just doesn't have the overall game for that.  To be in that class as a guard or forward, I think you have to have elite court vision, and Wiggins just doesn't have that.  He also rebounds poorly for a guy his size, and he isn't an elite shooter either, nor are there any indications that he'll ever become one.  I could see him becoming a great defender and a good shooter, but I think to be top five in the league you need to be more well-rounded than that.

Again, they could have made other moves.

And I guess I'll just have to say I disagree about your assessment of Wiggins. Compare his numbers through his first 100 games with a lot of other star players. Only a few guys really out class him.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

And I guess I'll just have to say I disagree about your assessment of Wiggins. Compare his numbers through his first 100 games with a lot of other star players. Only a few guys really out class him.

I think the key here is his salary versus what he gives you. I don't think anyone is trying to say that he's as talented as Kevin Love, but Wiggins is much cheaper, and the Cavs could have got Love for nothing, ultimately. And the end result did not parlay into a championship. The Cavs gave up a talented player on his first contract. Not sure you can measure the cost of that if you're just discussing Wiggins talent or lack of talent. 

[briantw]

Again, they could have made other moves.

And I guess I'll just have to say I disagree about your assessment of Wiggins. Compare his numbers through his first 100 games with a lot of other star players. Only a few guys really out class him.

What other moves were available at the time?  Kevin Love was a star player, arguably top five/ten in the NBA at the time, and he was both available and willing to commit long term to Cleveland.  There were no other star players on the block at that time.  Aldridge only became available after Portland underachieved during the season, and he's four years older than Love.

As far as numbers go, the one I like to look at is efficiency, and Wiggins is nowhere near elite in that category compared to many other wings in their second years who went on to become top players in the league.  And again, what was more concerning to me with Wiggins coming into the league was the fact that, athleticism aside, he's not really elite in any area.  He doesn't have elite court vision or passing.  He doesn't have elite handles.  He doesn't have elite shooting ability.  He's not an elite rebounder for his position.  You expect future top NBA players to be elite at at least a couple of those even coming into the NBA.

I'm not saying he won't be a good player.  I just think top five is a big stretch.  I think his teammate Towns has a much better shot at reaching that status than Wiggins does.

[Kindly Old Man]

Hell of a game by the Jazz tonight, they barely came up short. I haven't watched them much but from this game it looked like they're maybe one piece away from being very good.

[Fez]

I don't start closely following the league until around Christmas, so this may be a stale topic, but I just looked at the box scores tonight and saw that the Bulls beat the Spurs, the Hawks beat the Thunder, and the Pistons beat the Rockets (not that they're a good team this year). And from what I have seen of the season, all the Western teams have some pretty serious flaws; other than the Warriors, who are transcendent, and maybe the Spurs and Thunder (if Durant stays healthy). Most of the Eastern teams are flawed in some way too, and I'd definitely take the LeBrons over the field, as per usual, but I'm surprised to see what appears to be real parity between the conferences this year.

[Ramsay B.]

So Bulls had a nice win tonight at home against the Spurs in a good close game. Fun to see how much Kawhi has come along too, he had stretches in the 2nd half where he looked unstoppable. But it's still cringeworthy to see Rose launching up those line-drive 3's, so annoying everytime and he only shot 2.

DeAndre Jordan was 12-34 from the free throw line tonight...yikes.

[Calibandar]

I don't see it. They couldn't have predicted Nash's rapid decline. Nash wasn't old just because he signed with them, he was already old when he was still with Phoenix. Bryant was having one of his better seasons before his injury if I remember correctly. Foreseeing injuries is bullshit. By that logic, it would have been Duncan or Dirk who went down last season instead of Durant. Speaking of Dirk, Dallas signed Chandler after he was coming off multiple injuries. That worked out decently enough for them didn't it.

Really, you are still looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Randle and Russell being good or not is irrelevant. If they went for the complete rebuild like Boston, they could probably have them both plus a couple more picks. They chose to try for more championships and it didn't work out, so they have failed terribly. They took risks and it just so happened that most of it fell on the bad side and didn't pay off for them. And what was the alternative? Keeping Bynum? Which other point guard was available other than Nash?

1) They could, of course, have predicted Nash's decline, and should have.

2) Foreseeing injuries is not bullshit when you're talking about guys in their mid and late 30's. Especially guards who have tons and tons of miles on them. And again it's about all 3 of these players together ( Old Nash, Old Bryant and Dwight) supposedly being the core which would always seem problematic. Could that ever have worked? Not in 99% of cases IMO.

3) Tyson Chandler was 27 years old when Dallas signed him and "it worked out well for them". What a bizarre example to give in this discussion.

But anyways, agreed to disagree.

 

[briantw]

Eh...that Lakers squad was stacked on paper, but age caught up to Nash, Kobe was starting to fade, and Dwight was hobbled.  That team could have had a two-year championship window with better luck just like the Cavs might have ended the seasons as champs last year if Love didn't get his shoulder ripped out of the socket in a bush league play in round one and/or if Kyrie didn't bang knees with someone in the Finals.  Luck is a big part of winning in the NBA, and some bad luck can end your season.

As far as Nash goes, you could certainly project some further decline, but not for him to completely and utterly fall apart physically. 

[Calibandar]

Yeah well let me say it's not my intention to slam the Lakers. I was more thinking about "what would have happened if Howard had stayed", coupled to what happened to Bryant and Nash. There was never a championship window in hindsight. But with foresight, I think you could have said that window was very slim as well. 

Which is not really the case with the Cavs, they definitely have a very good window and not just last year, but the next 3 years by the looks of it. I'm one of the people who defends the Kevin Love trade. Though obviously a scenario where Love would have come over this Summer for free is better, they wouldn't have been that competitive last year. Yeah they didn't win last year, but with Love at least they *could* have. Surely the Cavs are much better positioned to win than the Lakers where with that trio of 38 year old Nash, 35 year old Bryant and injury prone Howard.

 

[Proudfeet]

1) They could, of course, have predicted Nash's decline, and should have.

2) Foreseeing injuries is not bullshit when you're talking about guys in their mid and late 30's. Especially guards who have tons and tons of miles on them. And again it's about all 3 of these players together ( Old Nash, Old Bryant and Dwight) supposedly being the core which would always seem problematic. Could that ever have worked? Not in 99% of cases IMO.

3) Tyson Chandler was 27 years old when Dallas signed him and "it worked out well for them". What a bizarre example to give in this discussion.

But anyways, agreed to disagree.

 

1. No. Nash didn't just "decline". He fell apart. 

2. It was risky, yes. But standing pat would not have gotten them anywhere, especially since the team was going downhill after the aborted Chris Paul trade. I don't think it would have worked either from a chemistry standpoint, but injuries? Sorry, I'm not buying it. Also, do you mean to say that you are just not going to sign anyone in their mid thirties. Gee, Ginobili and Duncan sure were inconsequential to the Spurs.

3. Are you comparing Chandler to Howard or Nash? I'm not comparing age, I'm comparing injuries. 

As I said, you are looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. You look at the negative examples and confirm your bias but what about the positive examples? 

[Calibandar]

So Bulls had a nice win tonight at home against the Spurs in a good close game. Fun to see how much Kawhi has come along too, he had stretches in the 2nd half where he looked unstoppable. But it's still cringeworthy to see Rose launching up those line-drive 3's, so annoying everytime and he only shot 2.

DeAndre Jordan was 12-34 from the free throw line tonight...yikes.

I watched him against the Timberwolves. They kept hacking him and he kept air balling his free throws. It is astounding how bad he is, and you cannot believe why the Clippers don't have him improve it through rigorous training. At one point he shot 3 in a row that all fell well before the basket.

 

I don't start closely following the league until around Christmas, so this may be a stale topic, but I just looked at the box scores tonight and saw that the Bulls beat the Spurs, the Hawks beat the Thunder, and the Pistons beat the Rockets (not that they're a good team this year). And from what I have seen of the season, all the Western teams have some pretty serious flaws; other than the Warriors, who are transcendent, and maybe the Spurs and Thunder (if Durant stays healthy). Most of the Eastern teams are flawed in some way too, and I'd definitely take the LeBrons over the field, as per usual, but I'm surprised to see what appears to be real parity between the conferences this year.

Definitely agreed with this, as a result of the fact that the Rockets, Grizzlies, Clippers and Pelicans are now seriously malfunctioning teams. It's not like the East got better, but the West definitely got worse. And some of that stuff looks like it will not be easily resolved. 

[briantw]

Yeah well let me say it's not my intention to slam the Lakers. I was more thinking about "what would have happened if Howard had stayed", coupled to what happened to Bryant and Nash. There was never a championship window in hindsight. But with foresight, I think you could have said that window was very slim as well. 

Which is not really the case with the Cavs, they definitely have a very good window and not just last year, but the next 3 years by the looks of it. I'm one of the people who defends the Kevin Love trade. Though obviously a scenario where Love would have come over this Summer for free is better, they wouldn't have been that competitive last year. Yeah they didn't win last year, but with Love at least they *could* have. Surely the Cavs are much better positioned to win than the Lakers where with that trio of 38 year old Nash, 35 year old Bryant and injury prone Howard.

 

Oh no doubt the Cavs are much better set up for the next few years because two of their three stars are still in their twenties, and the other is only (almost) 31.  

Love wouldn't have been able to come to the Cavs for free, though.  They wouldn't have had the cap space between LeBron, Kyrie's extension kicking in, Thompson's cap hold, and whoever else they would have had on the roster.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

What other moves were available at the time?  Kevin Love was a star player, arguably top five/ten in the NBA at the time, and he was both available and willing to commit long term to Cleveland.  There were no other star players on the block at that time.  Aldridge only became available after Portland underachieved during the season, and he's four years older than Love.

As far as numbers go, the one I like to look at is efficiency, and Wiggins is nowhere near elite in that category compared to many other wings in their second years who went on to become top players in the league.  And again, what was more concerning to me with Wiggins coming into the league was the fact that, athleticism aside, he's not really elite in any area.  He doesn't have elite court vision or passing.  He doesn't have elite handles.  He doesn't have elite shooting ability.  He's not an elite rebounder for his position.  You expect future top NBA players to be elite at at least a couple of those even coming into the NBA.

I'm not saying he won't be a good player.  I just think top five is a big stretch.  I think his teammate Towns has a much better shot at reaching that status than Wiggins does.

Some thought he was the third best player in the league. I watched his entire career and can say with confidence he was the most overrated player then. He would get dominated by other all star players. Look you have me that there weren't any other stars available. My contention is they didn't need one. There were stetch 4s that could play defense they could have aquired for far less than Wiggins. And did losing Love hurt them? I'd say no, considering they were up 2-1 in the finals without Love and Irving while a third string PG gaurded Curry.

Regarding Wiggins, how many young players are elite at anything? It's very rare to see. And don't forget, Jordan, Kobe and James were all meh shooters to start their careers. And his handles have really improved. I'm projecting what I think Wiggins will look like in year 5, FYI.

 

[Jaime L]

Sometimes you have to be shortsighted in pursuit of a championship.  The Cavs went all-in.  Even if they fail to win a championship, it was the right move given the situation they were in.

Aside from that, I really don't see Wiggins as a future top-five player in the NBA.  He just doesn't have the overall game for that.  To be in that class as a guard or forward, I think you have to have elite court vision, and Wiggins just doesn't have that.  He also rebounds poorly for a guy his size, and he isn't an elite shooter either, nor are there any indications that he'll ever become one.  I could see him becoming a great defender and a good shooter, but I think to be top five in the league you need to be more well-rounded than that.

Really don't think it was. Keep in mind Wiggins is on a rookie contract while Kevin Love earns max money. If you just wait a year you can use that max cap space  to bring in LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan...or Kevin Love. It's not like they won the title last year by being overeager and, besides, who doesn't want to play with Lebron? And then you still have Wiggins, one of the five most physically gifted players in the game.

You're awfully cavalier (pun intended!) about assuming what Wiggins is now is what he always will be. But say he develops slowly. Worst case scenario is he's Harrison Barnes, that kind of pivotal, versatile piece on a 19-0 Warriors team. Wiggins has never seemed like a Kobe like domineering personality to me. I have little doubt he could fill whatever role Lebron needs of him until he comes into his own. It's different when you're trying to be everything for the T'Wolves vs. the very specific role guy he'd be in Cleveland the first couple years.  

The issue I have is this: there's an absolute juggernaut emerging in the West. You're gonna need every bit of talent to overcome them. Going all in on Love last year capped the Cavs upside and I don't see how they get better from there. They're not going to have either cap space or draft picks to add any other elite talents like Wiggins. I get why they did it, but now they better hope and pray it's enough.