Middle East and North Africa 20 - The End of the Beginning in Syria? SPECIAL BONUS RUSSIAN JET CRISIS EDITION

[Horza]

Interesting things are happening...

This:

#BREAKING: Kerry says Syria could be 'weeks away' from transition - via @AFP

 

Seems to go pretty well with this:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has told his embattled Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad to either leave office and make room for a transitional government or be forced out, Israeli officials say.

Putin delivered his ultimatum at a meeting between the two in Moscow on October 20, and comes as Russia joins other world powers in setting a timetable for a new Syrian government after nearly five years of civil war.

 

There were whispers back when Assad visited that it wasn't quite the nice warm dacha party, but this would be a fairly dramatic opening in a conflict that's promised very little. It's also not in line with the template discussed at Vienna, which doesn't mention any transitional authority. Still, I definitely get the sense that Sharm el-Sheik and Paris have changed the thinking among the Western and Russian powers somewhat.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I can only imagine the deals that were done between the US and Russia on this issue.

Probably along the lines of:

1. The Russian naval base in Syria being given guaranteed presence and security

2. Some type of easing the pressure on Russia around the Ukraine issue and a move to end Russia's economic isolation.

3. An agreement to focus on Isis as a threat to all parties

4. An agreement to move to a transitional government in Syria.

In the end, if these outcomes are achieved I reckon Putin gets everything he wanted from his Syrian campaign. And the US will be pretty happy too.

 

 

[Horza]

The base in Tartous isn't going anywhere. There's no way any forthcoming elections would change the composition of the Syrian government or the power structures in place, so I doubt that came up.

Lifting sanctions over Ukraine would have to be tied to further implementation of Minsk, and there the ball is mostly in the rebel court. I don't think it would have come up any backdoor deal either, just because getting all the balls rolling on a Syria deal is hard enough work as it is. If there is a deal on Syria it does make progress in Ukraine more likely though.

----

 

And it definitely looks like something's on:
 

BREAKING — U.S entering operation with Turkey to shut off remaining 98 km of northern Syria border: Secretary of State Kerry

[Horza]

Actual breaking news:

According to the Turkish Government, one of its F-16s just shot down a Russian jet. Both pilots appear to have ejected, and a Turkmen FSA rebel group claims to have captured one of them. Russian helicopters are mounting a rescue operation.

Russia, possibly attempting to avoid just the biggest diplomatic crisis since it invaded Crimea is claiming the jet never crossed the border and was brought down by ground fire.

If both pilots are fine and there is one in Turkmen hands this could just be a diplomatic crisis, they have good relations with the Turkish government. If not, this could be the start of something much worse.

[Altherion]

A Russian newspaper citing CNN correspondents says that the pilot who is not captured is dead. I can't find anything of the sort on CNN. This could be really bad: neither Putin nor Erdogan have much room for loss of face and Turkey is a member of NATO.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Here's hoping there is no conclusive proof that the jet was in Turkish airspace, in which case Turkey was the aggressor and Putin can slap down that prick Erdogan without having the Nato treaty invoked.

Else this could be serious indeed.

[Arakan]

Oh Erdogan...a pity he wasnt so energic when it comes to fighting IS. 

Turkey under Erdogan is a liability for NATO. he is an islamist. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Even if the NATO treaty is invoked, no-one is going to start WWIII on behalf of Turkey.

Another reason why NATO is an abomination in a post-Cold War world. It's either completely ineffective or it brings about the apocalypse. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

My understanding is that Erdogan is against Russia attacking Turkman rebels inside Syria, as they are fighting Assad and are in some way supported by Turkey. And that this is the source of some or most of the conflict between Russia and Turkey in that area. So it could be that the Russian jet was bombing these "allies" of Erdogan, in a territory that Erdogan sees as Turkish, or at the very least as a disputed border or something?

I"m going on on a bit of a limb here, but the dynamics of this situation seem quite fascinating.

[Horza]

A Russian newspaper citing CNN correspondents says that the pilot who is not captured is dead. I can't find anything of the sort on CNN. This could be really bad: neither Putin nor Erdogan have much room for loss of face and Turkey is a member of NATO.

At the moment Turkey seems to be taking the definitive position that they shot down the jet after multiple warnings while Russian media is in a holding pattern, still suggesting it was ground fire inside the border and the official position is that too soon to tell.

Here's hoping there is no conclusive proof that the jet was in Turkish airspace, in which case Turkey was the aggressor and Putin can slap down that prick Erdogan without having the Nato treaty invoked.

Else this could be serious indeed.

For what it's worth, Turkey has released this radar image. If accurate, the airspace violation appears to be quite small. I'm not an expert but it doesn't seem like it gels with Turkish claims to have warned the jet ten times in five minutes.

Article Five says:
 

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

So I don't think it would work as a get-out clause for Putin if he attacked Turkish territory on the grounds you outlined.

It seems more like that Russian and Turkish relations take a bad hit from this the damage to Turkish interests will largely take place in Syria.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Erdogan always has this "I"m about to headbut you" expression on his face. Whether he is talking to a female CNN reporter or to a head of state. The guy just looks like a short tempered brute.

 

[Horza]

Erdogan always has this "I"m about to headbut you" expression on his face. Whether he is talking to a female CNN reporter or to a head of state. The guy just looks like a short tempered brute.

I find him and Putin very similar in their outlook and methodology, but you have hit on a big difference. You can really tell which one is the spy and which the street fighter.

[Grimbold]

Not seeing anything major happen over this.

 

Bit of dick waving, back channel discussion, but anything more is far fetched.

[Horza]

Not seeing anything major happen over this.

 

Bit of dick waving, back channel discussion, but anything more is far fetched.

Here's hoping.

Clarification from Turkish side: jet was warned before entering airspace.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Um, I'm not exicted about this turning into a major incident either and shooting the plane down was excessive but the Russians don't get to fly where ever they want to fly and military aircraft violating a sovereign nation-state's airspace is a big deal.  The Russians have been known to shoot down unarmed planes violating their airspace.  See the KAL incident near Sakhaline Island.  That was a passenger jet filled with civilians.

[Mr Fixit]

Turkey released the Russian plane's flight trajectory which, if true, shows that Su-24 indeed violated Turkish airspace... for a few seconds, that is. There's a very little 2.5 km wide "protrusion" of Turkish territory surrounded by Syria on three sides. A jet flying at reasonably high speeds would pass this in far far under a minute. 

On the one side, however small this "pocket" is, Russia should take better care in avoiding Turkish space. On the other, to shoot down a plane NOT engaged in hostilities against you for a violation that lasts a couple of seconds is pure idiocy. Someone didn't like that oil convoy getting blown up a few days ago. It's pretty much public knowledge that Turkey is involved in some shady business with ISIS, and has been for years.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I read a theory that Erdogan's son is head of a Turkish company that was directly involved in buying ISIS oil from Syria and Iraq. And that those blown up trucks would have hurt his interests personally.

Whether there is any truth to it - and whether Erdogan in fact even has any sons - I have no idea.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Who's "proof" is more accurate the Russians or the Turks?  Does anyone buy Russian claims their aircraft never went into Turkish airspace?

[Free Northman Reborn]

Scott

Why should Turkey's claims be any more credible than those of the Russians? Are you displaying some bias here?

Both are obviously serving their own interests.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

FNR,

I make no secret of the fact that I trust Putin not at all.  That said my post is sincere.  I have no expertise in reading radar data.  Does anyone who does have any insight about what we've been presented so far?