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Middle East and North Africa 20 - The End of the Beginning in Syria? SPECIAL BONUS RUSSIAN JET CRISIS EDITION


Horza

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Agreed that the anti-Russian bias of our establishment seems like a cold war grudge with no rational justification. Putin is just assumed to be bad, to the point where it's treated as a problem that he's bombing ISIS. :dunce: Like that's something we should be upset about.

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Agreed that the anti-Russian bias of our establishment seems like a cold war grudge with no rational justification. Putin is just assumed to be bad, to the point where it's treated as a problem that he's bombing ISIS. :dunce: Like that's something we should be upset about.

Well, firstly the Russians weren't bombing ISIS and no one seemed upset. Mostly people were concerned Russia was sticking it's dick deep into this clusterfuck, which is how you get shit like Turkey shooting down a Russian plane happening.

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I think these ideological and historical factors are valid explanations for why the public supports Israel. I include myself in that vague category

But it seems like our elected official's political devotion to Israel really does stem from Israel's lobby corrupting our political process. These campaign donors don't try to hide their quasi-treasonous agenda; in an interview Sheldon Adelson openly said "When they ask for money, the first thing I ask is their position on Israel."  If you were running for President and desperately needed cash to stay afloat, what would you say? And what effect would that have going forward? And once they get enough politicians to say the words, not saying them becomes controversial and the Lobby has won. 

This is also a big part of it. Once a meme gets going it takes a life of its own. I'm sure plenty of politicians talk about their deep love for Israel but have no clue why they have to talk about it to get elected. It's just part of the game now. 

The Israeli Lobby's power is waning slightly these days thankfully due to various factors. Criticizing Israeli policy is becoming more and more possible in the national press. There is, last I remember looking, a lessening of support among younger jewish voters for hardline Israeli policies, their recent military escapades have been getting some very unpositive press and Bibi's antics have been making him less popular with some groups, especially on the Democratic side. Alot of Israel supporters in the US are actually worried by Bibi because his dislike of the political Left in the US is turning support for Israel into a partisan issue and that's really bad for the Israeli Lobby's political power.

But stuff like this changes slowly, pro-Israel positions are still incredibly popular especially among the political right and DC is as always in it's own little bubble.

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Well, firstly the Russians weren't bombing ISIS and no one seemed upset. 

So says our government. And why would they lie? How can we verify their word against Russia's, without calling ISIS to ask?

Mostly people were concerned Russia was sticking it's dick deep into this clusterfuck, which is how you get shit like Turkey shooting down a Russian plane happening.

It was a bad idea from Russia's POV.  But I don't see why Americans should be worried that Russia is stumbling into a clusterfuck. 

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Question:

Where do American and Russian interests truly collide in the world arena?

Russia does not want to conquer America. Russia does not even want to conquer Western Europe. Russia feels threatened by Nato antagonism, which is largely why they engaged in their Ukrainian shenanigans.

What does the US think would happen if Nato was disbanded today and friendly terms were established with Russia? That Russian tanks would roll into Berlin in a decade's time? Nonsense.

Russia may want to extend their control over the traditional Slavic countries, but how is that counter to US interests? Why is it necessary for the US and Western Europe to waste any time worrying about what goes on in Eastern Europe? Who made the US Montenegro or Ukraine's big brother?

How is what Russia is doing in Ukraine a tenth as bad as the dictatorships in Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Middle East?

Imagine a stable relationship with Russia, with gas and oil flowing freely from Russia into Western Europe, with nuclear tensions reduced and with Russia (which has the largest untapped agricultural potential in the world), exporting food to the rest of the world under stable economic conditions?

The end result: Russia would be more powerful, yes, but the West would not be threatened by that, as they are not trying to forcibly export a communist ideology anymore.

There would be a multi-polar world, just like Putin is asking for, with the United States and the West as one pole, Russia as another, and probably China and India as two others.

What is so wrong with that? If anything, the US and the West should be closer to the Russian pole, than to the Chinese and Indian ones, given their common cultural, historical and religious backgrounds.

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Putin is a jumped up Mafioso who sees the collapse of the Soviet empire as a sad event.  He's invaded two neighboring Nation-States and annexed a chunk of another (Crimea) and is working on another chunk (the Donbass).  Putin is dangerous.

Indeed. It's good to remember that just as recently as Obama's campaign in 2008 and initial years in power the White House was working hard to build peaceful ties with Russia. Let's remember that Obama's Nobel Peace Prize was given, at least in part, for his work on non-proliferation with Russia. There's that picture of Clinton with Lavrov with the reset button.

Russia has had different priorities recently though and still remembers the 90s and just generally is not interested in being seen the way the US has been viewing them (ie - as just another nation).

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So says our government. And why would they lie? How can we verify their word against Russia's, without calling ISIS to ask?

So says eveyone but the Russians, as demonstrated the last time you whinged about this.

 


It was a bad idea from Russia's POV.  But I don't see why Americans should be worried that Russia is stumbling into a clusterfuck. 

 

For exactly the reason I already gave you? Because the US is concerned about the ongoing war that many believe Russian intervention will only exacerbate?

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Right off the bat with the angry tone.   :dunno:

 

So says eveyone but the Russians, as demonstrated the last time you whinged about this.

I shouldn't even have addressed this point because it honestly doesn't matter to me if they were ISIS or not. Russia bombing random rebels in Syria, most of whom are at least aligned with our enemies, is not a problem I think we need to fix. 

Because the US is concerned about the ongoing war that many believe Russian intervention will only exacerbate?

....And? I'm aware of what they've said, yes, but I honestly can't tell what point you're trying to make.

Is it that people in our government are concerned about "Russia exacerbating the situation"......by doing something the US is doing on a daily basis? Are American airstrikes in Syria not an "exacerbating effect" on the conflict in Syria? Is ISIS not a player in the civil war?  Why should I ignore all this and worry about Russia again? 

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Russia may want to extend their control over the traditional Slavic countries, but how is that counter to US interests? Why is it necessary for the US and Western Europe to waste any time worrying about what goes on in Eastern Europe?

Because avarice has no limits. Even in relatively poor and corrupt countries, there are still resources, money, cushy positions for the less competent scions of the elites, etc. The US and EU will not stop until they meet resistance. To be fair, the same is true of Russia, China and, to a lesser but still deadly extent, regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran.

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Right, that's what I was trying to say. Shia militant groups are a threat, but you can deal with them on a level that you just can't with ISIS. They're not irrational apocalyptic cults. I wonder if the Shia's willingness to play nice with other religions (compared to Sunnis) purely comes down to the fact that a small minority can't afford to provoke people. Does their doctrine differ very much from Sunni doctrine on things like submission, jizya, jihad, etc? Even if it did, it might just show how practical concerns can morph into dogma

I am not really an expert in Shia and Sunni Islam but as far as I know, the original split between them was purely political and not ideological in terms of who would rule them. 

So them being much more tolerant may very well originate from them being a persecuted minority. 

Well, firstly the Russians weren't bombing ISIS and no one seemed upset. 

Russians weren't bombing only ISIS, everyone who said they they didn't bomb ISIS at all was either ignorant or lying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuweires_offensive_(September–November_2015)

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Because avarice has no limits. Even in relatively poor and corrupt countries, there are still resources, money, cushy positions for the less competent scions of the elites, etc. The US and EU will not stop until they meet resistance. To be fair, the same is true of Russia, China and, to a lesser but still deadly extent, regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran.

You seem to be describing the realist philosophy of FP pretty well. But our leaders are misapplying realism if they think it says to go pick a fight and brew needless conflict just because our rivals are doing something.

America's competitors will grab as much power/influence/territory as they can, true, but if they stumble into a disaster we shouldn't jump in after them just to avoid looking weak. And if our adversary actually does something in our interest, we don't need to invent reasons to get upset and interfere with it. I think both of those scenarios apply to Syria

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Russians weren't bombing only ISIS, everyone who said they they didn't bomb ISIS at all was either ignorant or lying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuweires_offensive_(September–November_2015)

It seems that you're not "very concerned" about this, but just wait and see. Russia bombing people in Syria ( whom we're also bombing) is actually a sign of the end times. Only Marco Rubio or Hillary Clinton or JEB! can save us, by lecturing Putin about destabilizing interventions in the Middle East.  

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Russians weren't bombing only ISIS, everyone who said they they didn't bomb ISIS at all was either ignorant or lying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuweires_offensive_(September–November_2015)

They've been expanding their targets recently but they were almost exclusively targeting anti-Assad forces and ignoring ISIS for quite awhile.

Which wasn't surprising to anyone paying attention since that's why Russia got involved in the first place.

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...And? I'm aware of what they've said, yes, but I honestly can't tell what point you're trying to make.

Is it that people in our government are concerned about "Russia exacerbating the situation"......by doing something the US is doing on a daily basis? Are American airstrikes in Syria not an "exacerbating effect" on the conflict in Syria? Is ISIS not a player in the civil war?  Why should I ignore all this and worry about Russia again? 

Because Russia getting involved is yet another player in the conflict with divergent goals and one who's involvement could get very bad given who else is involved here. I mean, the easiest example is the one I already gave: Turkey shooting down a Russian plane. Ya won't see that happening to a US plane. Russia's involvement raises the stakes of the conflict which worries people. Cause shit can get out of hand very easily.

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They've been expanding their targets recently but they were almost exclusively targeting anti-Assad forces and ignoring ISIS for quite awhile.

No, they did not almost exclusively target the rebels in the beginning. The operation to relieve the siege of Kuweires base started on 14th of September, before the Russian forces intervened, and Russia immediately joined that operation once they came to Syria. From the Wikipedia page:

On 4 October, the Russian Air Force attacked ISIS along the Dayr Hafir Highway, and the Thermal Plant. This allowed the government forces to enter the village of 'Ayn Sabil.

 

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No, they did not almost exclusively target the rebels in the beginning. The operation to relieve the siege of Kuweires base started on 14th of September, before the Russian forces intervened, and Russia immediately joined that operation once they came to Syria. From the Wikipedia page:

 

I'm really curious if you are not good with english or if you just don't understand that this does not contradict anything I said.

Even the US is not claiming the Russians never attacked ISIS, only that they almost never did.

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"Judeo-Christian" morality shit, plus a perpetual fear of Islam and the general idea that Israel is some bastion of democracy in a hive of unwashed barbarians.  

As it happens, recent developments in the Middle-East, in Africa, in Asia and even in Europe and the US are proving fear of islam correct. 

And the "bastion of democracy in a hive of unwashed barbarians" actually seems closer to the truth now than ever before. Between Lebanon (sectarian violence), Syria (complete trainwreck), Turkey (Erdogan!), Iraq (another trainwreck), Iran (islamofascist), Saudi-Arabia (even more islamofascist), Egypt (dictatorship, looming civil war), Yemen (yet another trainwreck), Qatar (see SA), Bahrain etc, Israel is looking really good lately.   

Speaking about Yemen, I have not seen any protest about the war there, despite both airstrikes (by the Saudi alliance) and ground fighting killing large number of people and despite Al-Quaida extending its foothold there as a result of this Shi'ite/Sunni war.

I also don't think "we" have a strong alliance with the Saudis. In Europe, politicians are starting to call for sanctions as the Saudi government does not respect human rights and exports salafist ideas around Europe, instigating terrorism.

 

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As it happens, recent developments in the Middle-East, in Africa, in Asia and even in Europe and the US are proving fear of islam correct. 

And the "bastion of democracy in a hive of unwashed barbarians" actually seems closer to the truth now than ever before. Between Lebanon (sectarian violence), Syria (complete trainwreck), Turkey (Erdogan!), Iraq (another trainwreck), Iran (islamofascist), Saudi-Arabia (even more islamofascist), Egypt (dictatorship, looming civil war), Yemen (yet another trainwreck), Qatar (see SA), Bahrain etc, Israel is looking really good lately.   

Speaking about Yemen, I have not seen any protest about the war there, despite both airstrikes (by the Saudi alliance) and ground fighting killing large number of people and despite Al-Quaida extending its foothold there as a result of this Shi'ite/Sunni war.

I also don't think "we" have a strong alliance with the Saudis. In Europe, politicians are starting to call for sanctions as the Saudi government does not respect human rights and exports salafist ideas around Europe, instigating terrorism.

 

Uh, have you not been reading any news out of Israel? It's been getting pretty violent there recently. Not civil war bad but shit ain't great.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli–Palestinian_conflict_(2015)

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Because avarice has no limits. Even in relatively poor and corrupt countries, there are still resources, money, cushy positions for the less competent scions of the elites, etc. The US and EU will not stop until they meet resistance. To be fair, the same is true of Russia, China and, to a lesser but still deadly extent, regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The Soviets have been enemies for dozens of years - Poland, Hungary and the likes were suppressed by the Russians. It is a natural viewpoint of West-Europe to want to support the right of independence of those ex-eastbloc countries, including the Baltic States. Russia may view this as its sphere of influence, but by doing so it basically says that the Baltic States and others have to play to Putin's tune, or else.

Having said that, I think the attempt of the West to hold on to the Crimea wasn't smart. The Russians were never going to let that go and the population there is overwhelmingly pro-Russian. 

 

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