Middle East and North Africa 20 - The End of the Beginning in Syria? SPECIAL BONUS RUSSIAN JET CRISIS EDITION

[Ramsay Gimp]

Because Russia getting involved is yet another player in the conflict with divergent goals and one who's involvement could get very bad given who else is involved here. I mean, the easiest example is the one I already gave: Turkey shooting down a Russian plane. Ya won't see that happening to a US plane. Russia's involvement raises the stakes of the conflict which worries people. Cause shit can get out of hand very easily.

Ok, gotcha. Obviously it's an extremely volatile and combustible situation in Syria, and every outside actor has made it worse. But is there any reason to single out the Russians as the biggest escalators and brush aside our own actions? It's easy to pin it all on the Bond villain, but America is just as likely to recklessly escalate this conflict by doing something retard. Enacting a No-Fly-Zone for example, or actively helping the rebels in their fight against Assad/Putin.Sadly people fall for the media's double standard where American meddling is the default/natural state of affairs, but meddling by a different country is reckless aggression. They decry Putin's escalation in Syria as a major threat to world peace, and then complain that we don't have a No-Fly-Zone yet.  WTF??? Major candidates for the white house think we should fight Assad, Russia, and ISIS at the same time and I'm supposed to worry about Putin?

If I'm concerned about escalation in Syria, in other words, why shouldn't I focus on my own elected officials?

[Dofs]

I'm really curious if you are not good with english or if you just don't understand that this does not contradict anything I said.

Even the US is not claiming the Russians never attacked ISIS, only that they almost never did.

Or maybe I am also arguing the notion that Russia almost never attacked ISIS?

ISIS experienced one of the biggest defeats in months thanks to the Russian airstrikes and apparently this is portrayed as Russia almost ignoring them. 

[jarl the climber]

Uh, have you not been reading any news out of Israel? It's been getting pretty violent there recently. Not civil war bad but shit ain't great.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli–Palestinian_conflict_(2015)

I agree that the instability in the Middle East is bad for Israel as regards the Palestinian issue, The Arab regimes don't really care about the peace process if they are struggling to stay in power themselves. Nor do they want to take the risk of having a weak Palestinian state, which is what a Palestinian state would be, which would be dominated by Islamic movements like Hamas, Hence the current situation. 

[Ramsay Gimp]

Uh, have you not been reading any news out of Israel? It's been getting pretty violent there recently. Not civil war bad but shit ain't great.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli–Palestinian_conflict_(2015)

The issue of Palestinians knifing people in Jerusalem is related to the issue of Israel's geostrategy, but they are still separate issues. Israel benefits from Sunni militants fighting Iran and its proxies (who Israel views as the true threat). The Syrian issue is grabbing more regional attention than the Palestinian issue, and Israel isn't necessarily the most hated regime any more. They prefer being out of the spotlight, a few lone wolf Palestinians notwithstanding

[Ramsay Gimp]

I don't quite get why Shia Iran is seen as the big evil by America, when it is really the Sunnis who are causing most of the shit for the West.

I'm curious what you thought of my answer to this question. 

[Shryke]

Ok, gotcha. Obviously it's an extremely volatile and combustible situation in Syria, and every outside actor has made it worse. But is there any reason to single out the Russians as the biggest escalators and brush aside our own actions? It's easy to pin it all on the Bond villain, but America is just as likely to recklessly escalate this conflict by doing something retard. Enacting a No-Fly-Zone for example, or actively helping the rebels in their fight against Assad/Putin.Sadly people fall for the media's double standard where American meddling is the default/natural state of affairs, but meddling by a different country is reckless aggression. They decry Putin's escalation in Syria as a major threat to world peace, and then complain that we don't have a No-Fly-Zone yet.  WTF??? Major candidates for the white house think we should fight Assad, Russia, and ISIS at the same time and I'm supposed to worry about Putin?

If I'm concerned about escalation in Syria, in other words, why shouldn't I focus on my own elected officials?

Yes.

Firstly, the US is already involved which automatically means Russia getting involved raises the stakes just because it puts both US and Russian planes in the same airspace. There's a reason the US usually declines to get involved in Russian conflicts directly these days, like in Ukraine. When the US was involved, there was just the US. Once the Russians got involved both the US and the Russians are involved and suddenly it's alot riskier.

But more importantly, it's because Russia is just way more invested here. This is what people were saying the instant it started and some wanted to jack off Putin for his "amazing politicking". The truth is Russia is trying to salvage a nasty problem for their influence in the region. And this means, as we've seen with their level of commitment and troop deployments and such, that Russia is going to go in alot harder and thus raise the stakes alot more. The US, by comparison, just doesn't care that much. At the end of the day the US has little invested in Syria itself. That's why Obama ended up just not doing anything after the chemical attacks. Meanwhile, Putin is deploying ground forces.

And I'm trying to think of who in the Presidential race is saying we should be fighting Russia. Is it one of the crazier Republicans? I know Sanders doesn't seem to be that concerned and Clinton wants to run a no-fly zone with Russian cooperation so unless it's, like, O'Malley it's gotta be one of them.

[Biglose]

 

But more importantly, it's because Russia is just way more invested here. This is what people were saying the instant it started and some wanted to jack off Putin for his "amazing politicking". The truth is Russia is trying to salvage a nasty problem for their influence in the region. And this means, as we've seen with their level of commitment and troop deployments and such, that Russia is going to go in alot harder and thus raise the stakes alot more. The US, by comparison, just doesn't care that much. At the end of the day the US has little invested in Syria itself. That's why Obama ended up just not doing anything after the chemical attacks. Meanwhile, Putin is deploying ground forces.

So your argument is, that russia cares too much about fighting ISIS, which is bad... Ok...

[Shryke]

So your argument is, that russia cares too much about fighting ISIS, which is bad... Ok...

Russia only vaguely cares about fighting ISIS. Russia cares about propping up the Syrian government. That's what they are there for. That's what I'm talking about.

I have no idea where you got this silly bullshit from cause it ain't my post, but it mostly seems like you have not even a basic grasp of what Russia is up to in Syria.

[Biglose]

They fight ISIS because they want Assad to stay in power. That means they are motivated. Why the fuck is that such a bad thing.

[Mr Fixit]

Where does this myth of israeli democracy comes from?

If democracy is defined as having (relatively) free elections, yeah, I guess it's a democracy. On the other hand, they are an aggressor state that has been illegally occupying a large chunk of foreign territory for 50 years, instituting de facto and de iure apartheid and treating Palestinians on the Occupied Territories as Untermenschen. 

I am struggling to find any semblance of democracy in such state of affairs.

[Mr Fixit]

They fight ISIS because they want Assad to stay in power. That means they are motivated. Why the fuck is that such a bad thing.

Yeah, it's interesting to read some of these posts. Is there a heavenly mandate to remove Assad from power so that everyone who supports him is a priori disqualified as a legitimate factor? This nonsense boils down to simply reiterating White House talking points. Points, I might add, that many of the West European countries don't seem to share any longer. 

[Shryke]

They fight ISIS because they want Assad to stay in power. That means they are motivated. Why the fuck is that such a bad thing.

Actually, as already pointed out, they spent most of their time for the first several months bombing not-ISIS. They are not motivated to stop ISIS they are motivated to prop up Assad or some successor who will play ball.

The reason this might be a bad thing? I already explained that. It's another level of escalation to the conflict. It's why Russia is deploying ground troops and, say, the US  is noping the fuck out of that.

[Shryke]

Yeah, it's interesting to read some of these posts. Is there a heavenly mandate to remove Assad from power so that everyone who supports him is a priori disqualified as a legitimate factor? This nonsense boils down to simply reiterating White House talking points. Points, I might add, that many of the West European countries don't seem to share any longer. 

This just seems like you reading some pre-existing victim narrative into posts here rather then looking at what anyone you are referring to has actually said.

[Mr Fixit]

This just seems like you reading some pre-existing victim narrative into posts here rather then looking at what anyone you are referring to has actually said.

Victim narrative? Who, pray tell, is the victim here? And who is narrating and advocating the alleged victim's tribulations and victim status? On the other hand, don't tell me, though I'm sure it's all very interesting.

[cgrnosfe]

Russian tv s discussing where to bomb first in Turkey. Pkk/ypg leaders speak live on Russian TV. Armenian people speak s..t about turkey and Turkish.

Turkish tv s discussing how the relations have improved with the Eu. 5 new topics for Eu will be opened next year. Turkish prime minister celebrating Jewish religious day with joy. No news from Palestine for maybe months.

Well, it seems the die is about to be cast.

By the way, I have distaste for all kinds of racism and do not consider myself a nationalist. I wish I could say the same for some people writing here with definite bias and uncontrollable hatred.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Do you have a link regarding Russian plans to strike Turkey?

[Altherion]

I don't see anything in the Russian media about any plans to attack Turkey. The only thing the Russian media is reporting differently about Turkey right now is that there is a lot of emphasis on the fact that Turkey has moved ground forces into Iraq near the city of Mosul. This is in Western media as well (see this BBC article), but it is a lot more prominent in Russian media. They don't say it outright, but I suspect it serves as a dig at Turkey over the issue of respect for territorial sovereignty.

[cgrnosfe]

Do you have a link regarding Russian plans to strike Turkey?

Well I have watched it on a Russian TV, named planeta, it was a live discussion program with everyone sure about the bombing of turkey, what they discussed was where to bomb first. Pkk / ypg leaders and some Armenian guys were feeding the fire. I don't think that it has anything to do with official russian government policy, sorry for it if it is understood that way from my message.

Also, hurriyet which was an anti turkish government newspaper has made a drastic u turn with full support to the government. ( I think this is because they are pro European.)

Azerbaijani forces have bombed Armenian battlements. Azerbaijan has made 40% discount to the natural gas it supplies to Turkey. Ukraine and turkey start talks about turkey modernising Ukrainian tanks.

One crackpot theory : your media was printing erdogan (again, who I don't like much) in purest black because he was close with shanghai 5 and Russia and assad at the time. Please read the gezi protests under this light. Prepare for a sharp u turn in your media, to manipulate you into 'liking' turkey and turks. Say farewell to brave pkk / ypg and their female fighters ( who in reality are no more free than isis slaves. I'm really sorry but this is the middle east.) welcome the brave turkish army who will do your dirty job for you.

Well it is crackpot bu don't be amazed it actually turns out to be true.

[Dofs]

Actually, as already pointed out, they spent most of their time for the first several months bombing not-ISIS. 

Yeah, you pointed it out, then were proven wrong, but you ignored it.

Of course to defeat ISIS and radical Islam you have to back Assad. You may hate him, you may consider him a bloody dictator, whatever. The fact is, there are exactly two armies in Syria that fight for secularism - SAA and SDF (Kurds and co). And SDF are not going to go far into Syria, they re far away from its Western parts and are getting repeatedly bombed by Turkey to be prevented from capturing even their own Kurdish territories from ISIS.

SAA is the only power in Syria at the moment who has the will and power to cleanse the country from Islamic terrorists. You can't defeat terrorists just by airstrikes without ground troops. Airstrike will not capture the territory, they will not hold towns, cities, strategic points. Bombing ISIS or al-Nusra or whatever without troops on the ground is absolutely useless and a waste of time and money. So supporting the SAA advances by airstrikes is for now the only way to truly defeat ISIS and other jihadists in Syria. SAA is also the only power that prevents ISIS, al-Nusra, Islamic Front etc. to overrun the government held areas which are full of religious minorities who will get massacred if you give jihadists their way. Take away SAA and you will bring a true hell to Syria. 

But SAA will collapse if you take away Assad now. Insisting that Assad has to go now is a shear madness that will cause disastrous consequences. Assad must stay until the juhadists in Syria are destroyed, only after this happens he may leave. So whatever Russians motives are in Syria, they are doing the best job in defeating radical Islam in Syria by supporting SAA.

[Dofs]

Say farewell to brave pkk / ypg and their female fighters ( who in reality are no more free than isis slaves. I'm really sorry but this is the middle east.)

Pretty sure they are not sold and repeatedly raped by their 'masters'. And one PKK female fighter on the interview told that she joined PKK to run away from an arranged marriage so I would question the notion of them being slaves in any way.