The Pact of Ice and Fire and what it might actually mean

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Good morning, westeros.org community!

 

I am new to this forum having used westeros.org as a resource for all things Ice and Fire for years. So, if I am doing something wrong, just tell me.

 

I want to ask for your opinion on the Pact of Ice and Fire. For those who don’t know yet, the Pact of Ice and Fire is a pact between Cregan Stark and the blacks during the Dance of the Dragons. Mushroom basically tells us that this pact included hiding dragon eggs below Winterfell. I have not read any halfway decent comprehensive theory about how that could actually make sense, so I dug into it myself and came up with a theory: I think – in a nutshell – that Rhaeyra or somebody else among the blacks wanted to make sure that there are dragons – or at least dragon eggs – out of the reach of the greens, the maesters and so on. I think that there has been a network of followers of the Old Gods who knew that dragons would be needed to get the world back into balance again (or something along those lines) and therefore made this happen.

 

If you want to read my theory in detail, you can check it out here: http://freypiesforskagos.blogspot.de/2015/11/red-black-green-and-green-or-from-ice.html

 

What do you guys think? Was there really more to the Pact of Ice and Fire? Or was it simply a pact made to help win the throne?

 

[joluoto2]

The problem with the theory is that the source is Mushroom, so there's no way to know if this is something that's true, or something he just made up. I suspect the latter, there's no way Mushroom would have known what was going on with the Blacks and Winterfel. Wasn't he in King's Landing during the Dance?

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

I think we really know too little to say "there is no way he could have known". That's why I rather tried to look at it from a different angle: Could what he says make sense? Why would somebody hide dragon eggs in Winterfell? That's what I tried to do. And I think it actually makes a lot of sense.

[aryagonnakill#2]

But we don't know to little to say "there is no way he could have known". 1 person went to Winterfell, it wasn't Mushroom.  We also have several blatantly false stories from Mushroom, so I don't know why we should believe this 1.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

But we don't know to little to say "there is no way he could have known". 1 person went to Winterfell, it wasn't Mushroom.  We also have several blatantly false stories from Mushroom, so I don't know why we should believe this 1.

Which would these "blatantly false claims" be, exactly? I was under the impression that most of Mushroom's claims are simply beyond our knowledge. Maybe I am missing something here?

Mushroom could have had the information from one of the Northmen coming south with Cregan Stark, for example, or simply from one of the blacks, I guess.

[Maxxine]

The problem with the theory is that the source is Mushroom, so there's no way to know if this is something that's true, or something he just made up. I suspect the latter, there's no way Mushroom would have known what was going on with the Blacks and Winterfel. Wasn't he in King's Landing during the Dance?

I knows there's the issue of where Mushroom was during the Dance, but it's completely possible that although he wasn't there when the pact was made someone talked about it in his presence later on. I really lean toward believing Mushroom. Anytime in the World Book that the maester says anything along the lines of "that's just legend so we can't believe that" or "we don't know how reliable this source is" I tend to believe the version he dismisses. Mostly because of the way maester Luwin always dismisses anything that he can't find a way to explain and what he dismissed is usually the right answer.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

I knows there's the issue of where Mushroom was during the Dance, but it's completely possible that although he wasn't there when the pact was made someone talked about it in his presence later on. I really lean toward believing Mushroom. Anytime in the World Book that the maester says anything along the lines of "that's just legend so we can't believe that" or "we do know how reliable this source is" I tend to believe the version he dismisses. Mostly because the way the maester at Winterfell with Bran (sorry for some reason I can't remember his name right now) always dismisses anything that he can't find a way to explain and what he dismissed is usually the right answer.

Exactly! That was the feeling I had while I read that book, too. You mean Maester Luwin, I suppose.

[cutuphalfdead]

I didn't read your detailed account but when I looked at the wiki of ice and fire entry on the pact of ice and fire I found it curious that a targ princess never was married into house Stark per the agreement. Maybe that's a pact that still needs to be fulfilled?

[Maxxine]

Exactly! That was the feeling I had while I read that book, too. You mean Maester Luwin, I suppose.

Yeah Luwin. His name was just escaping me for some reason. But he's the reason why I don't trust the maesters judgement on all things. They refuse to believe anything can't be easily explained even if it's smacking them in the face.

[Lord Varys]

There are different aspects of the Pact of Ice and Fire to consider. First the alliance in itself which seems to be a given considering that both Lord Roderick Dustin and Cregan Stark both fought for the Blacks after Jacaerys Velaryon flew to Winterfell on his dragon Vermax. This thing isn't contested by anyone.

The second thing is Mushroom's specific claim that Jace's dragon Vermax explored Winterfell's crypt while Jace and Cregan were negotiating. Considering that Vermax would have been at Winterfell, too, and considering that the dragon would have hung out with them during the talks that's not impossible. Vermax could even have been or turned female and mated with another dragon shortly before Jace began his journey, and could thus also have produced a clutch of eggs at Winterfell. I actually find the idea very intriguing that one of those hidden eggs may have hatched during the burning of Winterfell, but I admit that there is little real evidence.

From TWoIaF we also know that Mushroom was on Dragonstone and thus with Rhaenyra and her sons prior to Jace's departure so he was apparently pretty close to them. We also know that he claims that the whole dragonseed plan was an idea he, Mushroom, fed to Jace, so Mushroom seems to have been also on Dragonstone and with Jace after the latter returned to the island. Therefore Jace himself could have been the source for the dragon egg story if there was any truth to it since one assumes that it would hardly remained a secret if Jace's dragons had entered the crypts of the Stark. The people of Winterfell would never have seen a living dragon before and would most likely constantly watched and admired the creature.

The final thing is stuff we only know from Ran and Linda, namely that Jace actually fulfilled the Pact of Ice and Fire (which stipulated that a Stark/Cregan gets the hand of a Targaryen princess in marriage) by marrying Cregan Stark's bastard sister in secret. That mostly sounds like a ridiculous Mushroom story considering that Jace was never disinherited by his mother for this whole thing. Eldest son or not, a Prince of Dragonstone of that era could not possibly marry a bastard.

My guess for the Targaryen bride for Cregan is - assuming he was promised a concrete woman - that they settled on Rhaena Targaryen. She was previously betrothed to Lucerys Velaryon but the time line suggests that Jace (who had a much longer and farther flight from Dragonstone visiting Winterfell only at the very end of the journey) might have heard about his brother's demise at Storm's End before he began his negotiations with Lord Cregan. Cregan then eventually chose to spurn Rhaena in favor of Alysanne Blackwood. Black Aly clearly had caught Cregan's eye later on since Baela, Rhaena, and Aly's plan to save Corlys Velaryon from Cregan's wrath wouldn't have worked if Cregan Stark had had no intention to marry Alysanne Blackwood (she offered herself in marriage to Lord Stark if Cregan would in turn let Aegon III's decree stand which restored Corlys Velaryon to his titles and offices). Thus Rhaena Targaryen became first the wife of Ser Corwyn Corbray and later the wife of Garmund Hightower who fathered six daughters on her.

But this theory only works if Rhaena only married Ser Corwyn after the end of the Dance - which seems likely to me considering that the war would have left little time for marriages.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

I didn't read your detailed account but when I looked at the wiki of ice and fire entry on the pact of ice and fire I found it curious that a targ princess never was married into house Stark per the agreement. Maybe that's a pact that still needs to be fulfilled?

Interesting idea while not part of my theory. I argue that the pact was basically called off or rather suspended with Aegon III the Dragonbane on the throne, because with a king who hates dragons the whole purpose of the pact was negated. 

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

What is this about Cregan's bastard sister? Can I read that info somwhere? Might be very interesting, but I had never heard about that, yet.

[Lord Varys]

Ran told something about it in an question and answer thing on TWoIaF somewhere. It is nothing more like that, Mushroom telling the rumor that Jace fell in love and secretly married Cregan Stark's bastard sister while he was at Winterfell. Since we lack Gyldayn's full account on Jace's deeds during the Dance we can't really determine whether that could be the case or not. A secret marriage has to be revealed first because it can have repercussions, and this whole thing would have had severe repercussions for Jace if it came out. Rhaenyra wouldn't have been pleased, and neither would have been Corlys Velaryon considering the fact that Jace was betrothed to his granddaughter Baela Targaryen. Yet Jace worked closely with Corlys prior to his own death during the Battle of the Gullet, so my guess is that either there is nothing to that rumor or it was never revealed while Jace was still alive.

It such a marriage took place, then Jace either fathered no child on his wife or such a child ended in obscurity considering the fact that their father most likely died before it was even born. Not to mention that a child born by a non-legitimized bastard could never make a claim to the Iron Throne.

[Lord Fauntleroy]

I knows there's the issue of where Mushroom was during the Dance, but it's completely possible that although he wasn't there when the pact was made someone talked about it in his presence later on. I really lean toward believing Mushroom. Anytime in the World Book that the maester says anything along the lines of "that's just legend so we can't believe that" or "we don't know how reliable this source is" I tend to believe the version he dismisses. Mostly because of the way maester Luwin always dismisses anything that he can't find a way to explain and what he dismissed is usually the right answer.

This, the Maesters are not modern scientists. They are biased and always put their own twist on the things they claim are true. 

[Anath]

Given the fact that Daemon and Corlys kept supporting Rhaenyra and Baela herself was the one who rose to meet Aegon and defy him one last time, I think no such marriage ever existed and was never revealed, prior to Jace's death or not. If it was indeed important, it would have found place in the book at the expense of something else if need be. Ten or so lines wouldn't have taken this much space. If it really mattered. I don't think it did. None of the characters' actions is consistent with such a marriage ever taking place.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Ran told something about it in an question and answer thing on TWoIaF somewhere. It is nothing more like that, Mushroom telling the rumor that Jace fell in love and secretly married Cregan Stark's bastard sister while he was at Winterfell. Since we lack Gyldayn's full account on Jace's deeds during the Dance we can't really determine whether that could be the case or not. A secret marriage has to be revealed first because it can have repercussions, and this whole thing would have had severe repercussions for Jace if it came out. Rhaenyra wouldn't have been pleased, and neither would have been Corlys Velaryon considering the fact that Jace was betrothed to his granddaughter Baela Targaryen. Yet Jace worked closely with Corlys prior to his own death during the Battle of the Gullet, so my guess is that either there is nothing to that rumor or it was never revealed while Jace was still alive.

It such a marriage took place, then Jace either fathered no child on his wife or such a child ended in obscurity considering the fact that their father most likely died before it was even born. Not to mention that a child born by a non-legitimized bastard could never make a claim to the Iron Throne.

Interesting that Elio would make such a claim if it is not in any text by George. Would be even stranger if it would turn out not to be true, therefore, I guess, we should trust him on that onw, right? Doesn't seem like a simple mistake, because it's too elaborate for that.

[Lord Varys]

Ran and Linda got a lot of content, hundreds of thousands of words, actually, that did not fit into TWoIaF for length. Yandel did a good job of summarizing things - and if you have read TPatQ and TRP you can compare their summaries with George's abridged accounts on the Dance and Viserys I's reign - but there is only so much you can squeeze into a few pages.

What is important is very difficult to determine if you think everything is important. Not to mention that the format of Yandel's history is to give an account of the reigns of the Targaryen kings, so you better talk more about them than, say, the marriages of doomed cadet branches. I personally I'm rather underwhelmed about the lack of information we got on all the Targaryen women yet that would be consistent with the approach a patriarchal historian like Yandel would write his history.

Ran and Linda shouldn't know whether anything the historical sources George invented is true. All they have would be more detailed accounts and perhaps Gyldayn favoring one version over the other, but I very much doubt that George has always marked 'the true version' in all those competing theories. Not to mention that there might be only multiple wrong theories/versions on certain events because, you know, the Varys' and Littlefingers of those days covered their tracks far too well for any historian.

[Anath]

This is more important than most of the important things, though. It wasn't that hard to predict that such a detail would gather more attention because of how it can be interpreted as a foreshadowing of Rhaegar and Lyanna. It was left out, that's all I'm saying. This detail wasn't hundred of thousand of words. Half a page, more likely, if it had to be really all detailed and then some. It could have been done.

Ran and Linda chose to omit this detail, and it being true doesn't correspond with the further actions of the any of the characters involved, so my guess is it was just a saucy invention of Mushroom's.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Ran and Linda got a lot of content, hundreds of thousands of words, actually, that did not fit into TWoIaF for length. Yandel did a good job of summarizing things - and if you have read TPatQ and TRP you can compare their summaries with George's abridged accounts on the Dance and Viserys I's reign - but there is only so much you can squeeze into a few pages.

What is important is very difficult to determine if you think everything is important. Not to mention that the format of Yandel's history is to give an account of the reigns of the Targaryen kings, so you better talk more about them than, say, the marriages of doomed cadet branches. I personally I'm rather underwhelmed about the lack of information we got on all the Targaryen women yet that would be consistent with the approach a patriarchal historian like Yandel would write his history.

Ran and Linda shouldn't know whether anything the historical sources George invented is true. All they have would be more detailed accounts and perhaps Gyldayn favoring one version over the other, but I very much doubt that George has always marked 'the true version' in all those competing theories. Not to mention that there might be only multiple wrong theories/versions on certain events because, you know, the Varys' and Littlefingers of those days covered their tracks far too well for any historian.

I do know that they have a lot of stuff that didn't make it into the books. The pat that I find strange is that they would talk about about things that are unpublished. I mean, it's still George's story. He has the last word on what's canon and what's "true".

[Lord Varys]

Well, technically that would all be semi-canon of course. George can drop, tweak, and change anything that is not yet printed (and technically even printed stuff, as he does occasionally) but all that history stuff is pretty special since only the limitations of the book prevented all that from becoming canon in the first place. It is not stuff George decided to drop because he changed the storyline or was unhappy with how a chapter worked out. It is basically the concept of TWoIaF as an illustrated book which should have art on any page. Had they shuffled all of Gyldayn's history verbatim into the book - as pretty much everyone would have preferred, actually - there would only have been art on any tenth page or so - unless they had commissioned new art, making the book a lot bigger in the process.