What was Skahaz thinking?

[Ab3nd]

I think it might be a another explanation for all this 

Shakaz wanted to poison Hizdhar. A desperate way to break the peace in front of all the Wise Masters, and force Danny into war. He choose a local delicacy that Danny wouldn't enjoy. Without her he has no hopes of overcoming the slavers, so he puts his Brazen Beasts about her to stop her if she tries to eat one. If it comes to that, he can probably blame Hizdhar's cousin and Hizdhar himself, easily finding beasts to support his accusations

So, the Brazen Beasts know about the poison intended for Hizdhar but, as Barristan says, "Half of them are untried freedmen, and the other half are Meereenese of doubtful loyalty" Surely one of those Meereenese beasts told. Or a very loyal freed beast told, in hopes that the queen would be warned. In any case, who could he talk to? Not Shakaz, clearly, and I doubt Danny or Hizdhar would treat with them directly, unless they came to court

Wich leaves two options: Hizdhar's cousin, and our perfumed seneschal. One would be loyal to Hizdhar, and I bet the other is bought if he isn't a traitor to begin with. I'm inclined to think it would be Rheznak. Him betraying Danny by warning Hizdhar instead of her would fit perfectly with Quaithe's warning. It also explains why Hizdhar didn't ate a single locust and made feeble excuses, while urging Danny to try them. If the beasts had to act to stop her from eating the poison, Shakaz would be exposed. If they let Danny eat and die, they still win. If they have to explain Belvas poisoning, Rheznak or the cousin can simply produce the brazen beast and point at Shakaz, leaving Hizdhar free of any suspicion. Win-win.

 Any thoughts? 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

Hizdahr's death wouldn't have stopped or broken the peace with Yunkai. It was already ratified. Not to mention that Skahaz cannot have any real interest in a war with Yunkai if Meereen is at a disadvantage. More importantly, even if he wanted to break the peace he would have had to kill Yurkhaz and Yezzan, not Hizdahr, and Skahaz had clearly nothing to do with Drogon returning to the city or with Yezzan mounting the pale mare.

[bemused]

Why would Hizdahr lying about his food preference point to him being the target?  Hizdahr liking spicy foods can point to him being the target. Him lying, saying he does not like spicy foods, can only be explained by him specifically not wanting to eat the locust, and that can only be explained by him knowing they were poisoned.

 

Edit: I would also ask, if Hizhahr/ Green Grace are not in charge of the Harpies, than why did the attacks stop when Dany agreed to marry Hizdahr?  Why would Skahaz have stopped the attacks?  I believe what is written in the books before I believe a comment by GRRM at a con somewhere that was not recorded and was then interpreted by those who listened.

This pretty much says it .  GRRM would never confirm or deny any questions in regard to plot before he has a chance to do it himself ... and he is King of the Cagey Answer. If it's a very direct plot question, you'll get something like "Keep reading ..", or "You think he's dead, do you?" If it's a more involved question, or one that could lead to a plot revelation, he'll honestly address the elements he can answer without giving anything away, and keep schtum about the rest.

Moving on... I agree with much of what Lord Varys says, but have some differences. I don't agree that it wouldn't be important to Hizdahr and the GG to have an heir from Dany. Hizdahr goes out of his way to point out his own ability to give Dany heirs.. when she has not so much as raised the question.. When the GG and Reznak are trying to convince Dany to be examined and eat the "special" cake, in the matter of the tokar, etc., it's clear that the getting of legitimate heirs is a concern for them. When the time came that Dany was no longer necessary, the hope would be that Dany's followers (in particular the Unsullied) would feel loyalty to her child, and thus be kept under control. I think they're really hoping to play a mid-to-long term game.

However, they are in a fluid situation and have to not only pay attention to their initial internal plans, but react to developments with the Yunkaii, the Volantenes, and so on. Skahaz says the pit changed all, and we can see that it did, not only with Dany's disappearance, but the death of Yurkhaz, etc.

Skahaz also says that when the Volantene fleet arrives, Hizdhar would throw open the gates. ... Well, by that time, Hizdahr might have, since he obviously never had real, total control of the city.. But that wouldn't have been in their original plan. I don't think we should underestimate the ambition of GG / Hizdahr, once they saw the oportunity to re-create a dynasty (possibly an eventual empire) through Dany. They have (and would still want) their natural alliances with the other slaving states, but wouldn't want to actually be "rescued" by any of them, for fear of a takeover.. They don't want Meereen to become anyone's satellite or client state. If any one state is to become predominant in Slaver's Bay in the long run, they would want it to be Meereen.

All of Hizdahr's off-page visits to the various pyramids were not to persuade the SoH to cease operations ... nor, in my opinion, were they merely for show. I think he was probably convincing the other masters that a royal marriage was their best move and that in spite of their own noble lineage, there was no use putting themselves forward - he was the only consort Dany would accept ( and of course the GG would back him up).

I know we're led to see Skahaz as a dreadful torturer, but I think he's probably not unusually so. We never actually see any of his interrogations. But .. we know that Barristan refuses to go along with him until he can interrogate the confectioner himself. That also happens off-page .. but since we next see him co-operating with Skahaz we can assume he must have been satisfied that there was reason to move against Hizdahr .. Would he have been convinced, if the confectioner had shown signs of being tortured to the point of saying whatever his questioner wanted to hear ? I don't think so.

We don't know what caused the enmity between Kandaq and Loraq, or whether it's of long duration, or not. From Skahaz' opposition the the slavers, I think it's reasonable to speculate that his family was not directly involved in the slave trade.(His pyramid is modest, and the GG seems to make a class distinction between Loraq and Kandaq.) We're really given no obvious clue as to what Kandaq's enterprise was, but we might see a hint in the olive groves outside the walls of Meereen that were destroyed as Dany approached. We don't know who was the originator of that plan. The text points out that it takes about 30 yrs before new trees become really productive. This, or something like it, might be enough to generate the extreme animosity of Skahaz (especially if there was loss of life to his family in the process). Even if you owned slaves to tend your orchards, what use would that be, if the orchards were destroyed ? Rather than an asset, the slaves would become an added liability.... But that is just a speculation.

Skahaz is a blunt man, in general, but he's more than just blunt in his vehement hatred of Hizdahr .. This seems to me to speak of a more recent rather than long past cause for offense.

Early on, when Xaro offers his ships, the Meereenese don't want Dany to leave, because she would leave them vulnerable at that point.

Reznak mo Reznak gave a piteous moan. “Then it is true. Your Worship means to abandon us.”
He wrung his hands. “The Yunkai’i will restore the Great Masters the instant you are gone, and we who have so faithfully served your cause will be put to the sword, our sweet wives and maiden daughters raped and enslaved.”
“Not mine,” grumbled Skahaz Shavepate. “I will kill them first, with mine own hand.” He slapped his sword hilt.

Reznak plays on Dany's sympathies.. but since he is no doubt allied with the GG, this is not a real, personal fear on his part. If the great Masters were restored, Reznak, the GG's catspaw, would be alright. It would be a real fear for Skahaz and I don't think he's exaggerating... Perhaps the exchange should be looked at in light of Tyrion's later thoughts on slavery ... there is always a choice, even if the only alternative to slavery is death. If he's being honest here, Skahaz is very unlikely to act against Dany.

He's ambitious, but I don't think he ever thought of marrying Dany until...

Reznak and the Green Grace had been urging Dany to take a Meereenese noble for her husband, to reconcile the city to her rule. Hizdahr zo Loraq might be worth a careful look. Sooner him than Skahaz. The Shavepate had offered to set aside his wife for her, but the notion made her shudder. Hizdahr at least knew how to smile.

I think Skahaz' offer is one made in desperation, to thwart the GG's plan, or he would already have set aside his wife and been wooing Dany.

Obviously he has ambitions, allying himself with Dany from the outset, but if any scenario such as the olive grove postulation is true, allying with Dany may also have been his one opportunity to save his family from impoverishment (perhaps leading to eventual enslavement) without Dany's presence.

Unless Dany changed her mind again and decided to stay permanently, he knows that she eventually intends to leave for Westeros. He may well feel that he would be the best person to fill that power gap (and I might agree with him). He may have it in for Hizdahr personally, but impersonally, he also wants to break the power of all the great masters ("slavers all"). He has no ambition to be one of them.

I agree that while Skahaz may be in a position to betray Barristan and Dany's forces at the upcoming battle, there is no discernable advantage to him in doing so.

But I want to bring this back to the abortifacient issue. I don't know why so many readers want to write the idea off, when it clarifies the situation considerably. It's fairly obvious that the events at Daznak's pit and Dany's disappearance threw the proverbial spanner into the works for everyone. Dany's death would have done the same. No-one's plans were in a secure position at that point.

And there is so much in the text pointing to Dany's fertility.. the abundance of fertility symbolism in her dinners and meetings with the GG, Hizdahr and Daario and hints in whether she partakes or not.. the desire for heirs on the part of Hizdahr and the GG.. the likelihood that she does, in fact, miscarry later.. and the great similarity between her symptoms and actions and those of Belwas.

Belwas doesn't throw up right away. Even after he finishes the locusts, there is at least one other bout in the pit (the youth), at least two beast fights, a mock battle and Tyrion and Penny's folly before the program gets around to Barsena and the boar, when Belwas begins to vomit..

When Dany eats the green berries, George first has Dany equate them with spice and gives them a bitter aftertaste, such as would be masked by honey ... 

Dany squinted at them suspiciously, then plucked one from a branch and nibbled at it. Its flesh was tart and chewy, with a bitter aftertaste that seemed familiar to her.“In the khalasar, they used berries like these to flavor roasts,” she decided. Saying it aloud made her more certain of it.

Then...

Her belly rumbled, and Dany found herself picking berries with both hands and tossing them into her mouth.
An hour later, her stomach began to cramp so badly that she could not go on. She spent the rest of that day retching up green slime.

We follow her through a violent purging of her system into exhausted sleep, and when she wakes she realizes she's bleeding...

 Am I dying? Then she saw the pale crescent moon, floating high above the grass, and it came to her that this was no more than her moon blood.  ... ...  She was bleeding, but it was only woman’s blood. The moon is still a crescent, though. How can that be? She tried to remember the last time she had bled. The last full moon? The one before? The one before that? No, it cannot have been so long as that.

Her period is out of sync with her regular cycle, and she seems to have missed one or two.

The fact that GRRM has her wonder if she is dying before he goes on to "only a woman's blood" and then on to strongly imply that she has aborted, I think is meant to hint at the intent of her poisoner, as well as her status.

ETA: I think there is a parallel to be made between Meereen and the situation at Winterfell, but GRRM places our sympathies a little differently.

The Bolton's have taken WF, the northmen want him out - and though they've allied with Stannis, they don't really want Stannis to have the rule of the castle, or the right to dispose it where he will.

[aryagonnakill#2]

This pretty much says it .  GRRM would never confirm or deny any questions in regard to plot before he has a chance to do it himself ... and he is King of the Cagey Answer. If it's a very direct plot question, you'll get something like "Keep reading ..", or "You think he's dead, do you?" If it's a more involved question, or one that could lead to a plot revelation, he'll honestly address the elements he can answer without giving anything away, and keep schtum about the rest.

Moving on... I agree with much of what Lord Varys says, but have some differences. I don't agree that it wouldn't be important to Hizdahr and the GG to have an heir from Dany. Hizdahr goes out of his way to point out his own ability to give Dany heirs.. when she has not so much as raised the question.. When the GG and Reznak are trying to convince Dany to be examined and eat the "special" cake, in the matter of the tokar, etc., it's clear that the getting of legitimate heirs is a concern for them. When the time came that Dany was no longer necessary, the hope would be that Dany's followers (in particular the Unsullied) would feel loyalty to her child, and thus be kept under control. I think they're really hoping to play a mid-to-long term game.

However, they are in a fluid situation and have to not only pay attention to their initial internal plans, but react to developments with the Yunkaii, the Volantenes, and so on. Skahaz says the pit changed all, and we can see that it did, not only with Dany's disappearance, but the death of Yurkhaz, etc.

Skahaz also says that when the Volantene fleet arrives, Hizdhar would throw open the gates. ... Well, by that time, Hizdahr might have, since he obviously never had real, total control of the city.. But that wouldn't have been in their original plan. I don't think we should underestimate the ambition of GG / Hizdahr, once they saw the oportunity to re-create a dynasty (possibly an eventual empire) through Dany. They have (and would still want) their natural alliances with the other slaving states, but wouldn't want to actually be "rescued" by any of them, for fear of a takeover.. They don't want Meereen to become anyone's satellite or client state. If any one state is to become predominant in Slaver's Bay in the long run, they would want it to be Meereen.

All of Hizdahr's off-page visits to the various pyramids were not to persuade the SoH to cease operations ... nor, in my opinion, were they merely for show. I think he was probably convincing the other masters that a royal marriage was their best move and that in spite of their own noble lineage, there was no use putting themselves forward - he was the only consort Dany would accept ( and of course the GG would back him up).

I know we're led to see Skahaz as a dreadful torturer, but I think he's probably not unusually so. We never actually see any of his interrogations. But .. we know that Barristan refuses to go along with him until he can interrogate the confectioner himself. That also happens off-page .. but since we next see him co-operating with Skahaz we can assume he must have been satisfied that there was reason to move against Hizdahr .. Would he have been convinced, if the confectioner had shown signs of being tortured to the point of saying whatever his questioner wanted to hear ? I don't think so.

We don't know what caused the enmity between Kandaq and Loraq, or whether it's of long duration, or not. From Skahaz' opposition the the slavers, I think it's reasonable to speculate that his family was not directly involved in the slave trade.(His pyramid is modest, and the GG seems to make a class distinction between Loraq and Kandaq.) We're really given no obvious clue as to what Kandaq's enterprise was, but we might see a hint in the olive groves outside the walls of Meereen that were destroyed as Dany approached. We don't know who was the originator of that plan. The text points out that it takes about 30 yrs before new trees become really productive. This, or something like it, might be enough to generate the extreme animosity of Skahaz (especially if there was loss of life to his family in the process). Even if you owned slaves to tend your orchards, what use would that be, if the orchards were destroyed ? Rather than an asset, the slaves would become an added liability.... But that is just a speculation.

Skahaz is a blunt man, in general, but he's more than just blunt in his vehement hatred of Hizdahr .. This seems to me to speak of a more recent rather than long past cause for offense.

Early on, when Xaro offers his ships, the Meereenese don't want Dany to leave, because she would leave them vulnerable at that point.

Reznak mo Reznak gave a piteous moan. “Then it is true. Your Worship means to abandon us.”
He wrung his hands. “The Yunkai’i will restore the Great Masters the instant you are gone, and we who have so faithfully served your cause will be put to the sword, our sweet wives and maiden daughters raped and enslaved.”
“Not mine,” grumbled Skahaz Shavepate. “I will kill them first, with mine own hand.” He slapped his sword hilt.

Reznak plays on Dany's sympathies.. but since he is no doubt allied with the GG, this is not a real, personal fear on his part. If the great Masters were restored, Reznak, the GG's catspaw, would be alright. It would be a real fear for Skahaz and I don't think he's exaggerating... Perhaps the exchange should be looked at in light of Tyrion's later thoughts on slavery ... there is always a choice, even if the only alternative to slavery is death. If he's being honest here, Skahaz is very unlikely to act against Dany.

He's ambitious, but I don't think he ever thought of marrying Dany until...

Reznak and the Green Grace had been urging Dany to take a Meereenese noble for her husband, to reconcile the city to her rule. Hizdahr zo Loraq might be worth a careful look. Sooner him than Skahaz. The Shavepate had offered to set aside his wife for her, but the notion made her shudder. Hizdahr at least knew how to smile.

I think Skahaz' offer is one made in desperation, to thwart the GG's plan, or he would already have set aside his wife and been wooing Dany.

Obviously he has ambitions, allying himself with Dany from the outset, but if any scenario such as the olive grove postulation is true, allying with Dany may also have been his one opportunity to save his family from impoverishment (perhaps leading to eventual enslavement) without Dany's presence.

Unless Dany changed her mind again and decided to stay permanently, he knows that she eventually intends to leave for Westeros. He may well feel that he would be the best person to fill that power gap (and I might agree with him). He may have it in for Hizdahr personally, but impersonally, he also wants to break the power of all the great masters ("slavers all"). He has no ambition to be one of them.

I agree that while Skahaz may be in a position to betray Barristan and Dany's forces at the upcoming battle, there is no discernable advantage to him in doing so.

But I want to bring this back to the abortifacient issue. I don't know why so many readers want to write the idea off, when it clarifies the situation considerably. It's fairly obvious that the events at Daznak's pit and Dany's disappearance threw the proverbial spanner into the works for everyone. Dany's death would have done the same. No-one's plans were in a secure position at that point.

And there is so much in the text pointing to Dany's fertility.. the abundance of fertility symbolism in her dinners and meetings with the GG, Hizdahr and Daario and hints in whether she partakes or not.. the desire for heirs on the part of Hizdahr and the GG.. the likelihood that she does, in fact, miscarry later.. and the great similarity between her symptoms and actions and those of Belwas.

Belwas doesn't throw up right away. Even after he finishes the locusts, there is at least one other bout in the pit (the youth), at least two beast fights, a mock battle and Tyrion and Penny's folly before the program gets around to Barsena and the boar, when Belwas begins to vomit..

When Dany eats the green berries, George first has Dany equate them with spice and gives them a bitter aftertaste, such as would be masked by honey ... 

Dany squinted at them suspiciously, then plucked one from a branch and nibbled at it. Its flesh was tart and chewy, with a bitter aftertaste that seemed familiar to her.“In the khalasar, they used berries like these to flavor roasts,” she decided. Saying it aloud made her more certain of it.

Then...

Her belly rumbled, and Dany found herself picking berries with both hands and tossing them into her mouth.
An hour later, her stomach began to cramp so badly that she could not go on. She spent the rest of that day retching up green slime.

We follow her through a violent purging of her system into exhausted sleep, and when she wakes she realizes she's bleeding...

 Am I dying? Then she saw the pale crescent moon, floating high above the grass, and it came to her that this was no more than her moon blood.  ... ...  She was bleeding, but it was only woman’s blood. The moon is still a crescent, though. How can that be? She tried to remember the last time she had bled. The last full moon? The one before? The one before that? No, it cannot have been so long as that.

Her period is out of sync with her regular cycle, and she seems to have missed one or two.

The fact that GRRM has her wonder if she is dying before he goes on to "only a woman's blood" and then on to strongly imply that she has aborted, I think is meant to hint at the intent of her poisoner, as well as her status.

ETA: I think there is a parallel to be made between Meereen and the situation at Winterfell, but GRRM places our sympathies a little differently.

The Bolton's have taken WF, the northmen want him out - and though they've allied with Stannis, they don't really want Stannis to have the rule of the castle, or the right to dispose it where he will.

The poison for the purposes of an abortion is fine imo, the only point I intended to argue on this thread was that it was Hizdahr and the GG rather than Skahaz.  The GG could have known Dany was not having periods through the handmaids, so it is not out of the question that they would knew she was pregnant.

[Lord Varys]

Nothing suggests that the poison really would have worked as an abortifacient. More importantly, considering the effect the locusts had on Belwas they would be taking an awful risk by administering it via the locusts. I mean, Dany could easily have overdosed herself if she happened to like those locusts - and I don't think she would necessarily have not liked them. She was just is a bad mood and not particularly hungry during the whole pit fight thing.

But imagine she had liked them, how would anyone have stopped her or anyone else in the royal booth from poisoning themselves by eating too many locusts?

I'm also not sure the Green Grace would have had the means to determine whether Dany was with child or not. She didn't do so herself, and if her period had been coming irregularly she and/or her handmaids (i.e. Irri, Jhiqui, and Missandei) would have noticed as much and subsequently told Daenerys about the good or bad news. Even if Galazza Galare would have somehow been more informed about Dany's body then she herself was then I'm not sure how she could have been sure that Hizdahr wasn't the father of that child.

Only if Dany was already pregnant prior to the wedding would that assumption make sense - but in such a scenario both Hizdahr and the Green Grace could have forced Dany to either abort or proclaim said child a bastard upon the birth. But that didn't happen.

[bemused]

The poison for the purposes of an abortion is fine imo, the only point I intended to argue on this thread was that it was Hizdahr and the GG rather than Skahaz.  The GG could have known Dany was not having periods through the handmaids, so it is not out of the question that they would knew she was pregnant.

Yes, I understood that. Sorry, if I was misleading. The long (very long) part of my post was intended to address everyone. I had been following the discussion but hadn't had a chance to respond for a couple of days.

Nothing suggests that the poison really would have worked as an abortifacient. More importantly, considering the effect the locusts had on Belwas they would be taking an awful risk by administering it via the locusts. I mean, Dany could easily have overdosed herself if she happened to like those locusts - and I don't think she would necessarily have not liked them. She was just is a bad mood and not particularly hungry during the whole pit fight thing.

But imagine she had liked them, how would anyone have stopped her or anyone else in the royal booth from poisoning themselves by eating too many locusts?

I'm also not sure the Green Grace would have had the means to determine whether Dany was with child or not. She didn't do so herself, and if her period had been coming irregularly she and/or her handmaids (i.e. Irri, Jhiqui, and Missandei) would have noticed as much and subsequently told Daenerys about the good or bad news. Even if Galazza Galare would have somehow been more informed about Dany's body then she herself was then I'm not sure how she could have been sure that Hizdahr wasn't the father of that child.

Only if Dany was already pregnant prior to the wedding would that assumption make sense - but in such a scenario both Hizdahr and the Green Grace could have forced Dany to either abort or proclaim said child a bastard upon the birth. But that didn't happen.

The symptoms are the same as would be produced by many abortifacients that we know of.. Back in the bad old days, women would resort to taking a very strong purgative.

I think they would see the locusts as a necessary risk.. Dany refused their cake beforehand (we have only Reznak and the GG's word for it that eating it was a universal practice).. she had her own cooks and would undoubtedly keep them after the wedding.. it would be risky to try to poison her at any time.

As I mentioned earlier, there would be any number of ways to prevent Dany from eating too many locusts. Hizdhar could have taken one himself and "accidentally" spilled the bowl, or taken just a taste and declared them spoiled... no-one should eat any more.

No, I don't think there was a way for the GG to be sure Dany was pregnant. Her spies would be the little cup bearers, not so much Irri , Jhiqi, etc... But we have to remember the timing.. Dany started her affair with Daario at the same time that she agreed to marry Hizdhar, and Dany's whole household would have been aware of it, including the cup bearers. ... Dany wasn't going to marry Hizdhar for another 90 days. She could become pregnant at any time during that period.... Now they suggest the examination and the cake, but Dany flatly refuses and continues her affair with Daario right up to the night before the wedding... so they couldn't be sure that Hizdahr was the father , if Dany became pregnant shortly after the wedding.

This was preemptive move - and the pit was the first time, so far as we know, that Dany would be partaking of food prepared by Hizdhar's staff rather than the other way around. The sooner they acted the better. If she had a child they would have to wait and see who it looked like..etc.etc. and still might not be able to be sure.

[Lord Varys]

Well, one assumes that they could have gotten one of the Meereenese hostages to do the not-so-poisonous-abortion trick if that's what this was all about.

Not to mention that this idea looks flat-out stupid. If Dany happened to eat to much or if she was pregnant and they aborted her child and she realized what was going on, she might not believe their abortion story. She might decide that they tried to kill her with their poison. Thus they would effectively be acting as poisoners whether they wanted to or not - an awful big risk if they did not even know she was pregnant. Why not wait and see if she became pregnant after the wedding? She clearly didn't become pregnant during the ninety days. Trying to abort her child after she had married Hizdahr doesn't make any sense since that would threaten Hizdahr's child as much as Daario's. Not to mention that such an abortion would greatly increase the risk that Dany would never bear healthy children again (e.g. Lysa Arryn).

Why not just confront Daenerys with their fears that she might be pregnant from Daario? Why not demand that she set him aside early enough so that they could be sure that any child born after the wedding could only be Hizdahr's? They don't even raise that point, and if they feared that Dany being pregnant was the reason why she refused to subject herself to their examination then they could have said as much, too. The Green Grace is always very blunt with Daenerys.

But I find it also very unlikely that either Hizdahr or the Green Grace are interested in Dany's children. They don't want to start a dragonrider dynasty, they want the dragons and their mother gone. Hizdahr jumps on the first chance to have Drogon killed, and the days of Viserion and Rhaegal were numbered in the very moment Dany disappeared. An infant child of Dany and Hizdahr would be able to keep all the factions together should something happen to Dany, and waiting to remove Dany until such a child was old enough to rule at Hizdahr's side is simply impractical (by that time the restoration of slavery could easily be pretty much impossible)

[bemused]

Well, one assumes that they could have gotten one of the Meereenese hostages to do the not-so-poisonous-abortion trick if that's what this was all about.

Not to mention that this idea looks flat-out stupid. If Dany happened to eat to much or if she was pregnant and they aborted her child and she realized what was going on, she might not believe their abortion story. She might decide that they tried to kill her with their poison. Thus they would effectively be acting as poisoners whether they wanted to or not - an awful big risk if they did not even know she was pregnant. Why not wait and see if she became pregnant after the wedding? She clearly didn't become pregnant during the ninety days. Trying to abort her child after she had married Hizdahr doesn't make any sense since that would threaten Hizdahr's child as much as Daario's. Not to mention that such an abortion would greatly increase the risk that Dany would never bear healthy children again (e.g. Lysa Arryn).

The hostages are children, some very young. It would be one thing to sit your little niece or nephew down and "innocently" ask what did they, and what did the Queen do last night, or  today.. Did the Queen have any visitors? ..and what did they do ?..Does the Queen ever ask them, or anyone to be her bed warmer ? ..and so on .. but it would be something else entirely to ask them to do your dirty work. They aren't Varys' little birds, they're high born children, and about as sheltered as it's possible to be in Meereen. They aren't the cooks.. and whatever the substance was intended to do , the taste obviously had to be well disguised with pepper and honey. It obviously wasn't something that could be dropped into a flagon of wine...And the children could just as easily be "innocently" questioned by Dany or Barristan, which is why it would make more sense to do it in public surroundings, if it was to be done at all.

Again, Dany has been observed to be a picky eater, but might be expected to try one or two to be polite. Even if she liked them, she's never been seen to pig out on anything, and would be even less likely to do so with all of Meereen looking on.

Dany has believed that she would not be able to get pregnant due to Miri Maz Dur's magic, which is how she could so easily lose track of her cycle .. and Irri and Jhiqui could well be aware of Miri's curse and be equally unconcerned.(Also dany is not showing.) This is why she never mentions heirs, or thinks about it ,when Hizdahr brings it up. Her whole motivation has to do with securing peace inside and outside Meereen. It's Hizdahr and the GG who are concerned with the prospect of heirs. The thought doesn't even enter Dany's head when she may actually be miscarrying, later.

If it had worked, the "spoiled food on a very hot day" excuse would have seemed reasonable. If she had eaten one or two, Hizdahr would probably have had one himself, to be able to say that he was also affected, and even Belwas' condition might not then have aroused too much suspicion, considering his gluttonous behaviour.

If she aborted, she very clearly did get pregnant during the 90 days. When else would it have been? Her first sexual relations with Daario ocurred after she had (tentatively) agreed to marry Hizdahr contingent on the 90 days arrangement. ..but she had entertained Daario tete a tete, so suspicions would be aroused. (Hizdahr himself may have seen Daario waiting when he left that night.)

Lysa Arryn's sad situation might not all have been down to her, considering Jon Arryn's past marital history.. and anyway, to counterbalance Lysa we have Cersei, who took moon tea repeatedly , to be sure she would have no child of Robert's, yet still had three of Jaime's.

 

 Why not just confront Daenerys with their fears that she might be pregnant from Daario? Why not demand that she set him aside early enough so that they could be sure that any child born after the wedding could only be Hizdahr's? They don't even raise that point, and if they feared that Dany being pregnant was the reason why she refused to subject herself to their examination then they could have said as much, too. The Green Grace is always very blunt with Daenerys.

To express their fears or suspicions would have given away that they had been spying on Dany through Reznak and, no doubt, the young hostages. The Green Grace is not always blunt with Dany (sometimes she's blunt - if it suits her purposes - but she certainly isn't honest and open at all times)..In the matter of the cake, Reznak seems on the verge of being blunt when the GG buts in with a timely word substitution that evades the point..

“But,” said Reznak mo Reznak, blinking, “but you must, Your Worship. Before a marriage it is traditional for the women of the man’s house to examine the bride’s womb and, ah … her female parts. To ascertain that they are well formed and, ah …”
“… fertile,” finished Galazza Galare. “An ancient ritual, Your Radiance. Three Graces shall be present to witness the examination and say the proper prayers.”

If Reznak could choke out her womb.. and female parts, he could surely have managed fertile. I think he was searching for an acceptable euphemism for "not pregnant."

They are not, at that point, in any position to make demands and Dany doesn't react well to demands (refusing to eat the cake, refusing to wash Hizdahr's feet).. so they do have to be careful how they put things (their tactic is to wear her down bit by bit, negotiate one concession after another)... But the GG goes on to drop a hint when Dany suggests they be married by Westerosi custom...

“The gods of Ghis would deem it no true union.” Galazza Galare’s face was hidden behind a veil of green silk. Only her eyes showed, green and wise and sad. “In the eyes of the city you would be the noble Hizdahr’s concubine, not his lawful wedded wife. Your children would be bastards. Your Worship must marry Hizdahr in the Temple of the Graces, with all the nobility of Meereen on hand to bear witness to your union.”

The GG's face is hidden, making her difficult to read, but we can see that it's important to her that  there should be no hint of bastardy around any children of Dany and Hizdahr. It might have been a clue to Dany, too, if she wasn't so certain that she couldn't have children. Since Dany and Daario had not yet slept together at this point, it's just as well no demands were made.. Dany would have been furious.

But I find it also very unlikely that either Hizdahr or the Green Grace are interested in Dany's children. They don't want to start a dragonrider dynasty, they want the dragons and their mother gone. Hizdahr jumps on the first chance to have Drogon killed, and the days of Viserion and Rhaegal were numbered in the very moment Dany disappeared. An infant child of Dany and Hizdahr would be able to keep all the factions together should something happen to Dany, and waiting to remove Dany until such a child was old enough to rule at Hizdahr's side is simply impractical (by that time the restoration of slavery could easily be pretty much impossible)

Hizdahr and the GG are interested in Hizdahr's children by Dany, full stop. Dany is his path to the crown. Without her, he's one among many who would like to be king.. And I agree, his child by her could probably hold the various factions together - in fact, I think they're counting on that. What they want would be a child (ideally a son?) or maybe two, to be safe.. but who said anything about waiting until the child was old enough to rule at Hizdahr's side ? Not me... No, a healthy heir and perhaps a spare (the sooner the better) and that would be it for Dany.

But what if the heir was born only 7 or 8 months after the wedding, yet seemed a good size and weight? Enough people know about Daario - especially after he kissed Dany in open court - that tongues would definitely wag, eyebrows raise, nudge nudge, wink wink. Then they'd have to kill the child, whereas, if they move now, Dany might not know she's pregnant. If she's not pregnant, according to the plan, she just ate some spoiled locusts and had a couple of very sick days (which coincidentally brought on her period). 

We know Dany had resolved not to continue her affair after the wedding.. and after the wedding is when Hizdahr could certainly have made demands regarding Daario, if she took up with him again. After Daario kissed Dany in court the GG comes to court asking for a private audience. When Dany puts her off, she comes very close to rebuking Dany over Daario in public. If Dany had given her a private word ,I think we may have seen a demand from the GG.. but until then, they couldn't really be open about it.

ETA: That public kiss and Dany's refusal to discuss it with the GG may have been the final straw that guaranteed that an abortifacient would be administered.

 

[SpecialNedStark]

We've seen no evidence of any of Dany's food being pre-tasted.. and she would have no reason to think her new husband, who provided the food ,might want to kill her, having just married her. If a taster was used, then I think the locusts would have been tasted as well. Everything including water and wine would have been tasted.

It really wasn't such a bad plan...Dany might have made a show of trying something so solicitously suggested by Hizdhar in public .. If she hadn't been put off by the sight of Belwas sweating so profusely. It was going to be a long hot afternoon; she wouldn't want to be sweating all over her floppy ears.

It certainly fits with what I think we know (or can deduce) about his character.

He's extremely rich and powerful (rich from the proceeds of slavery), a persuasive speaker, well travelled with contacts (allies?) in many other states - so: used to moving in high diplomatic circles. He's fascinated (and probably sexually aroused) by bloody death. He's not a warrior himself, but loves to watch.. He's ambitious enough to want to be king, but even more than that, the first king in 1000 yrs. or more.. In fact, his dreams are of Empire..He's inspired by his tapestries that show the armies of Old Ghis defeating and subjugating Valyria. I think that speaks directly to his ambitions (and intentions for Dany).

Skahaz has no power to disallow Dany's marriage.. and I don't know what you think constitutes a plot hole.. (Sometimes, when that charge is made, it means that people simply haven't identified the plot correctly.) Why anyone would risk poisoning the Queen or her King to get at Belwas, who was just one guy in Dany's army.. defies logic, IMO. Sure, we saw Arya concentrating on the little fish when it was within her power to kill Tywin.. but she was about 9 yrs. old. Pahl is a whole house with adults at the helm, who have much more reason to blame Dany than Belwas for their state of affairs.

Of course Skahaz is willing to kill to reach his goals.. so are they all.. Much depends on what their goals are as to whether we see it as justified or not. How can we see Skahaz as any more bloodthirsty than the other Meereenese ? I'd say he's maybe less so than Hizdhar, who exhibits fascination and even lust for bloodshed and death. At least with Skahaz ,it's a means to an end (information, breaking the power of the slaving houses, etc.). Do we know that he's more of a torturer, or any worse than the norm (not only in Essos, but Westeros as well) ? No. (We see "sharp" questioning used in many places, even by Qhorin and the NW interrogating wildlings.)

Barristan insisted on questioning the confectioner himself and alone, before he'd agree to move against Hizdhar. He must have been satisfied that the information was not just something that had been tortured out of the man, because a chapter or two later, we see Barristan and Skahaz moving against Hizdhar together..

No one lost more by Dany wedding than skahaz which is proven true by his being stripped of all power when Dany leaves. What i meant by skahaz having power to stop the wedding was that Dany required 90 days of peace from Hizdar before she'd marry him, and that skahaz, or anyone really, could have blocked the wedding by simply leaving a few dead bodies around during that time period. It's perplexing why skahaz didn't take the opportunity to ruin any chance of Hizdar being king. Murder isn't at all out of skahaz's character and he knew what Hizdar as long would mean for him. Just like the puppet regimes imperialist Britain used to put in charge, all of his power stemmed from Dany, and her marriage was huge blow to his houses future. If he did poison the locust killing Dany wasn't his goal. More likely that the weak poison was to make sure she didn't die, and made to look like Hizdar was the culprit. Whether or not skahaz did it isn't my point however. My point is why would skahaz not wreck the 90 days of peace, when it's clearly to his immense benefit, and never let peace come to Mereene at all. No one benefited more from Dany coming to town than skahaz.

[Lost Melnibonean]

No one lost more by Dany wedding than skahaz which is proven true by his being stripped of all power when Dany leaves. What i meant by skahaz having power to stop the wedding was that Dany required 90 days of peace from Hizdar before she'd marry him, and that skahaz, or anyone really, could have blocked the wedding by simply leaving a few dead bodies around during that time period. It's perplexing why skahaz didn't take the opportunity to ruin any chance of Hizdar being king. Murder isn't at all out of skahaz's character and he knew what Hizdar as long would mean for him. Just like the puppet regimes imperialist Britain used to put in charge, all of his power stemmed from Dany, and her marriage was huge blow to his houses future. If he did poison the locust killing Dany wasn't his goal. More likely that the weak poison was to make sure she didn't die, and made to look like Hizdar was the culprit. Whether or not skahaz did it isn't my point however. My point is why would skahaz not wreck the 90 days of peace, when it's clearly to his immense benefit, and never let peace come to Mereene at all. No one benefited more from Dany coming to town than skahaz.

'Cause plot. But if you want an in-story explanation, how about he was truly loyal to his queen until the wedding, and/or he was more concerned that such sabotage would trace back to him? 

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Well, one assumes that they could have gotten one of the Meereenese hostages to do the not-so-poisonous-abortion trick if that's what this was all about.

Not to mention that this idea looks flat-out stupid. If Dany happened to eat to much or if she was pregnant and they aborted her child and she realized what was going on, she might not believe their abortion story. She might decide that they tried to kill her with their poison. Thus they would effectively be acting as poisoners whether they wanted to or not - an awful big risk if they did not even know she was pregnant. Why not wait and see if she became pregnant after the wedding? She clearly didn't become pregnant during the ninety days. Trying to abort her child after she had married Hizdahr doesn't make any sense since that would threaten Hizdahr's child as much as Daario's. Not to mention that such an abortion would greatly increase the risk that Dany would never bear healthy children again (e.g. Lysa Arryn).

Why not just confront Daenerys with their fears that she might be pregnant from Daario? Why not demand that she set him aside early enough so that they could be sure that any child born after the wedding could only be Hizdahr's? They don't even raise that point, and if they feared that Dany being pregnant was the reason why she refused to subject herself to their examination then they could have said as much, too. The Green Grace is always very blunt with Daenerys.

But I find it also very unlikely that either Hizdahr or the Green Grace are interested in Dany's children. They don't want to start a dragonrider dynasty, they want the dragons and their mother gone. Hizdahr jumps on the first chance to have Drogon killed, and the days of Viserion and Rhaegal were numbered in the very moment Dany disappeared. An infant child of Dany and Hizdahr would be able to keep all the factions together should something happen to Dany, and waiting to remove Dany until such a child was old enough to rule at Hizdahr's side is simply impractical (by that time the restoration of slavery could easily be pretty much impossible)

I agree that poisoning her in this way to cause an abortion is stupid.  

 

But I also think that the poisoner in general was stupid (typical Meereeneese).  I mean clearly they didnt poison the locusts correctly if Belwas ate so many and didnt die.  Maybe he should have texted Lady Olenna to find out how to do it properly?  The whole thing was a botch, and all it did was alert everyone that someone is haphazardly trying to murder someone.  Reminds me of Draco's feeble attempts to kill Dumbledore on Voldemort's orders.

[Lord Varys]

We don't know what sort of poison was used and we have to keep in mind that Belwas retched up everything he ate shortly after he had wolfed down all the locusts. It is not unlikely that he actually happened to have less poison in his system thereafter than if he had just eaten, say, 3-5 locusts and completely digested them.

In addition there is, of course, Belwas' body size, and the fact that the Blue Graces had no reason to murder him and thus might have administered the correct antidote in time to save him - something they might not have done if Dany had eaten any locusts.

[SpecialNedStark]

Quick reset here. I'm not debating if skahaz poisoned the locusts or not, though i believe he did. I want to know why Skahaz, whose entire power base stems from Dany, would ever allow that wedding to take place when all it took to stop it would have been a murdered Freeman dropped at Dany's feet? Remember Skahaz tried to marry Dany himself and his house was looked down on by the rest of the nobles in Meereen. Dany had to marry a local, or so she thought, and if the Hizdar plan was scrapped she might have had to settle for Skahaz. At the very least he'd need to stop the wedding just to maintain his current position. Seems like a no brainer he'd sabotage the wedding when it would have been so simple to do. Surely no one thinks Skahaz above a little bit of murder? Seems like a huge plot hole to me whether or not Skahaz was the poisoner.

[Lord Varys]

SpecialNedStark,

I completely agree there. Consequently I see little reason for Skahaz to secretly plot against Daenerys. Apparently he was unwilling to murder Hizdahr and hoped that in the new Meereen there would still be some sort of place for him, even if he no longer officially commands the Brazen Beasts.

[John Doe]

Maybe killing freedman wouldn't go well with his supporters? Or he wanted to kill Dany to take the city for himself.

[Ser Creighton]

"One to bed, one to dread and one to love." Seems irrelevant right? But it isn't, Martin often does things in threes with Dany. In fact he points it out to the reader via Dany. Like the fact that this is not the first time someone tried to poison Dany, it was the third time and if you look closely they all have several things in common. Actually they are pretty obvious things. Start with a quote right before the second assassination attempt. A clash of kings our young Heroine is in the dockside trade market and is trying to make sense of all she learned in the House of the Undying, Martin decided this would be a good time to remind you of this.

"The Warlocks whispered of three treason's... once for blood and once for gold and once for love."

"'Dany found her thoughts  returning to the Palace of Dust once more, as the tongue returns to a space led by  by a missing tooth. Child of three, they had called her, daughter of death, slayer of lies, bride of fire. So many threes. Three fires, three mounts to ride, three treasons. 'The Dragon has three heads.' she sighed. 'Do you know what that means, Jorah?'"

So right before the second assassination attempt Martin reminds you that in a city with three walls, right before going to the three slaver cities that Dany and three are like peas and carrots. Now take a look at what Martin puts in play.

Assassination attempt number 1. The Dothraki market.  Dany is pregnant and Robert the blue eyed king wants her dead, and wants her child dead. Who saves her? Jorah her QG at the time saves her, but how, why it was Varys the sweet smelling Eunuch who sent a warning, and is actually the one who saved her life. It was a merchant, a wine seller who tried to poison her. That is who she is interacting with. Things Dany did right before this all went down, she was looking around and she mentions eating Locust pie, and seeing the Manticores in silver cages. And her and her guards and maids eat something. She was riding in a Palanquin. She is married. Dany leaves right after this. She will eventually go on a journey through the red waste after waking 3 Dragons and she will find 3 cities one of which she stays at.

Assassination attempt number 2. Qarth the city with 3 walls, location dock side market, what does she see this time? She sees a fighting pit, one of her blood riders is eating honey coated mice, not locust. She is speaking with a merchant when Jorah spies two very questionable men, a Eunuch and some old man who happens to become her Queens Guard. She is approached by a sorrowful man who has a box, and in the box a manticore. Anyone remember the stones on the box? It was encrusted with Bloodstones and Jasper. Dany is not married this time but Xaro had just proposed to her again right before she entered the market. In fact she was in the market looking for a ship because he said she had to flee. Dany leaves right after the attempt and who saved her? A Eunuch and a QG, and who sent them? A man Belwas describes as soon as he meets Dany as a man with sweet smelling hair who just happens to be associated with Varys the guy who saved her the first time. 3 ships will take her on a journey across water the opposite of the red waste to arrive at three cities.

Assassination attempt number 3. Meereen, Dany is married. She is heading to the fighting pits. Her transportation a Palanquin. There was blood on her first wedding Day as she points out and their would be blood on her second, oh how blessed. Now Martin touches on poison early in Dance when a Wine Seller is blamed for the murder of Unsullied via poison wine. Is he reminding the reader of something with this? She is taken through the plaza to the royal box which is surrounded by peddlers and merchants selling food and such. Martin makes sure she is once again in a location that is crowded with merchants. Is there Locust pie, or honey covered mice? No this time it is Honey covered locust, such a big difference and we get Peppered Sausages again. Martin once again brings up three treason's as Dany recalls the words. Belwas finishes the entire large bowl of Honeyed locusts, and gives a belch, all that was mentioned was he was sweating, but it was also 100 degrees out, he is eating spicy food and he is just a bit on the heavy side. He takes a swig of wine.  A pair of dwarfs perform a mock joust,  Tyrion of course, much like at Joffs wedding where he drank poison wine. Between the swig of wine and Tyrion there are several battles witnessed. Then comes the Cat and the boar and Martin decides to bring up Robert who was killed by a boar, right after drinking poisoned wine. Well drugged wine. Funny thing Martin will remind you of that in Jon's chapter right before he gets stabbed, he leaves Ghost behind because of a Giant boar, goes to the hall, makes a speech has some wine??? Why yes he did and funny thing Jon had some problems going for his sword didn't he? The Boar kills the Cat and this is when Belwas began to feel it. As Selmy who was with Robert when he died from drugged wine and boar reminds us you need a spear to fight a boar.  All hell breaks loose and a Eunuch appears to save her life again, while her QG also attempts to save her life in the pit of red sand and off she goes on another journey. Across the red sands of the red waste? No, though she starts on red sands. A journey at sea perhaps? No. This time she walks in water through a grass sea.

He mixes and matches but Martin places the same things on the field every time. Were the locusts poisoned? We do get a poisonous insect in the second attempt. And yet we get multiple attempts with wine, and in fact he places poison wine in Meereen doesn't he. Though Dany never got to speak to the Wine seller she took someones word for that.

In the end though it seems what was poisoned matters little, and chances are Kandaq is not wrong. The entire purpose was to create parallels between the dancing dragons, Jon and Dany the two assassination attempts in Dance. The clues as Martin layed them do two things they show the cyclical nature of the story and of course he dropped clues about what was going to happen to Jon and how it was done. Martin often drops clues about about Jon in Dany's chapters in fact some of the biggest are found there. The Harpy are her enemy and the Harpy took a daughter and used poison. Probably not all that different than what transpired with the Wine Seller and his daughter. Blackmail and poison. It is not the first time they have done this and I doubt they cared if they killed everyone in that royal box as long as they got Dany. Though poison seems to have been rather weak and the plan poorly executed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[joluoto2]

I see only two possibilities.

1. The Shavepate poisoned the locusts, Hizdahr was the target. Hizdahr's rise to power meant the decline of the Shakaz. Shakaz had nothing to gain by killing Daenerys, so she can't be the target if he is the poisoner.

2. Hizdahr is tghe poisoner, Daenerys is the target, but it's for selfish reasons. The Harpy (Green Grace) has no interest in killing Daenerys at this point. The Harpy is getting what she want. And she probably want Daenerys to have a Child with Hizdahr, so they can have a half Ghiscari dragon rider. No, if it's Hizdahr he's poisoning Dany because of her affair with Daario, and he's worried she'll get knocked up and he'll have to raise Daario's child as his own.

[Lord Varys]

I really don't buy the idea that the Meereenese want to become dragonriders. They hate dragons, and they knew they would be hated and destroyed by their peers in Yunkai and New Ghis, and all the other slaver cities if they decided to try to become a new Valyria. Not to mention that one would expect the Green Grace ask questions about dragonlore to Dany, provide her with whatever the Ghiscari know about them, and urge her to properly train and prepare the dragons for the day they are mounted rather than imprison them under the pyramid.

And again - Skahaz should have been able to remove Hizdahr in a much more effective fashion. Either by murdering Hizdahr himself - and blaming the deed on the Sons of the Harpy (him fraternizing with the enemy would have been a good enough explanation) or by sabotaging the ninety days' peace.

Not to mention that one assumes that Skahaz should have been able to come up with a better plan to poison Hizdahr if he wanted to do just that - say, in a manner that did not also greatly put Dany and other people in her vicinity at risk.

By the way: I'm actually sold on the idea that the Harpy/Hizdahr may have had sufficient interest to ensure Dany gives not birth to a child by Daario, but I still don't think that the locusts were part of an attempt to abort her child.

[bemused]

Lord Varys.. I don't imagine I'll convince you.. .. but I just find the similarities between Belwas and the locusts and  Dany and the green berries too similar to overlook. Belwas begins gobbling locusts by the handful.. and he doesn't vomit right away. As I pointed out upthread, a few matches take place while he's eating the locusts, but after he finishes, there are still a number of matches that take place - beast fights, a mock battle, Tyrion's folly, etc. (easily enough "entertainment" to last an hour, or more), before the match between Barsena and the boar begins..

Dany ... found herself picking berries with both hands and tossing them into her mouth ... and within an hour, she's vomiting up green slime.. after she's finished vomiting she continues to suffer, now with terrible diarrhea. It would be very surprising to learn that Belwas did not also suffer diarrhea, if his body was rejecting the locusts so violently. His body would have been trying to digest them since he began eating.. and e.g.,eating even a relatively small amount of spoiled food can take days to clear your system. If it was a strong purgative, who knows? (I'm no expert, but I'm a woman and I've heard the stories about purgatives used to bring on a miscarriage.)

We can't say if dried and ground green berries were part of the "spice " on the locusts, but something produced a similar effect. As well as their relative body weight ..Dany's hands are much smaller than Belwas'. I doubt she could have consumed anywhere near as many green berries as Belwas ate locusts, so there are differences as well as similarities. But the way each greedily attacks the food, followed by the vomiting after a similar interval, I think is meant to allow us to equate the two.

And then, Dany wakes to find herself bleeding. She can't remember when she had her last period , the moon is at the wrong phase for her cycle and.. The sight of so much red frightened her. Moon blood, it’s only my moon blood, but she did not remember ever having such a heavy flow.

It seems she has miscarried and because of the similarities between her illness and Belwas, I find it very hard not to associate the two. If it would be foolish to try to administer an abortifacient in this manner, then it was foolish.. but desperation can lead people to make foolish decisions.

I can't see that it would be convenient for any of the parties concerned to try to kill Dany right now ( in six months or a year or two, yes..now,no.) The exceptions would maybe be the Yunkai'i or the Volantenes but I can't see how they would have the opportunity. 

Who do you think is responsible? (if you had to choose..)

[joluoto2]

The poison was also quite weak. You'd have to eat loads of locusts to be affected, not just taste one. The whole attempt doesn't seem to be particulary well thought out if it was an attempt against a person that wouldn't gobble up loads of locusts.