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That Moment Arya Could've Ended the War


Maxxine

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Let me just say Arya is by far my favorite character and I don't blame her for not thinking about the big picture since she was 10 or 11 years old in ACOK. But had she used Jaqen's 3 names to kill Tywin & the Mountain she essentially wins the war for Robb. Yeah Cersei & Tyrion with Sansa are still in Kings Landing but at this point in the series w/o Tywin & Jaime captured that army falls apart (maybe Kevan can gain control but idk) and Renly/Stannis easily take Kings Landing in spite of Tyrion's best efforts. There would still be some loose ends to tie up concerning Renly or Stannis, but Robb really had no beef w/ either of them. And w/ the Lannisters gone the North could've easily dealt with the Iron Born.

Obviously I know from a literary standpoint if Arya kills Tywin & the Mountain at this point the plot is not as good moving forward, but I'm doing another read through & im at the 3 names part so I figured I would post this.

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I never get tired of this topic. Sure, Kevan might have it in him to prevent the Lannister forces from falling apart, but in terms of a symbolic or propagandist blow, the Lannisters are done. Look at House Borrell and everyone who's suddenly not afraid of the Lannisters after Tywin's death. I wouldn't be surprised if Mace is suddenly dubious about joining the Tywinless Lannisters, and depending how early this happens (my timeline is fuzzy), Balon might even get considerably less afraid of attacking the Westerlands. 

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I never get tired of this topic. Sure, Kevan might have it in him to prevent the Lannister forces from falling apart, but in terms of a symbolic or propagandist blow, the Lannisters are done. Look at House Borrell and everyone who's suddenly not afraid of the Lannisters after Tywin's death. I wouldn't be surprised if Mace is suddenly dubious about joining the Tywinless Lannisters, and depending how early this happens (my timeline is fuzzy), Balon might even get considerably less afraid of attacking the Westerlands. 

I want to say Balon's longships were maybe en route to the North when Jaqen gets to Arya & offers the 3 names. The last Theon chapter before the 3 names had Balon giving the orders to set sail. But yeah depending on the timeline I think Balon may be more inclined to try to take the West because it was Tywin he was worried.

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Would Red Wedding happen if Tywin was dead? Probably not

Right. Two things that make it doubtful. 1) Does Robb even need to continue his western campaign (& go to the Crag, find and marry Jeyne) if Tywin is dead. 2) Even if Robb still marries Jeyne I doubt Walder Frey makes that move w/o the support of Tywin

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Kevan and Tyrion would just take over the leadership of the Lannister faction. Not much changes, Kevan becomes Hand.

 

The Red Wedding was less about Tywin and more about Walder wanting revenge and Roose needing to dispose of Robb and other potential Northern leaders. I'm sure Tywin would have preferred them doing it in open battle but the Red Wedding meant fewer causalities for both Roose and Walder. Both would have switched sides, Walder when Robb married Jeyne and Roose when news of the Ironborn in the North and/or the Tyrells joining the Crown.

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Nope.

"Speak the name, and death will come. On the morrow, at the turn of the moon, a year from this day, it will come. A man does not fly like a bird, but one foot moves and then another and one day a man is there, and a king dies."

Jaquen may be able to change faces, but possess a timejet he does not. Could be that by the time Jaquen gets to Tywin, Winterfell is lost, Robb is dead and his army is spent.

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Nope.

"Speak the name, and death will come. On the morrow, at the turn of the moon, a year from this day, it will come. A man does not fly like a bird, but one foot moves and then another and one day a man is there, and a king dies."

Jaquen may be able to change faces, but possess a timejet he does not. Could be that by the time Jaquen gets to Tywin, Winterfell is lost, Robb is dead and his army is spent.

Tywin was right there, though.

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Nope.

"Speak the name, and death will come. On the morrow, at the turn of the moon, a year from this day, it will come. A man does not fly like a bird, but one foot moves and then another and one day a man is there, and a king dies."

Jaquen may be able to change faces, but possess a timejet he does not. Could be that by the time Jaquen gets to Tywin, Winterfell is lost, Robb is dead and his army is spent.

Tywin was sitting in that castle making plans. He would've had about 200 yards to go. 

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Tywin was sitting in that castle making plans. He would've had about 200 yards to go. 

Ah yes, sometime after Chiswyck (he was the test) and before Weese (Tywin left that day) she could have chosen him. I had forgotten the timing myself. Still, not sure that the war would have ended but it would have been a very serious blow to the Lannisters no doubt.

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Ah yes, sometime after Chiswyck (he was the test) and before Weese (Tywin left that day) she could have chosen him. I had forgotten the timing myself. Still, not sure that the war would have ended but it would have been a very serious blow to the Lannisters no doubt.

I imagine they would not be as well protected as Tywin was. So while an immediate kill was possible it may have taken longer

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Nope.

"Speak the name, and death will come. On the morrow, at the turn of the moon, a year from this day, it will come. A man does not fly like a bird, but one foot moves and then another and one day a man is there, and a king dies."

Jaquen may be able to change faces, but possess a timejet he does not. Could be that by the time Jaquen gets to Tywin, Winterfell is lost, Robb is dead and his army is spent.

pretty much my thoughts on the matter

if arya picks more important people to kill they wouldn't be killed in time

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pretty much my thoughts on the matter

if arya picks more important people to kill they wouldn't be killed in time

We literally just discussed that. Tywin was right there in the castle, if Jaqen throws him out a window of the Kingspyre, Lannister morale collapses, Kevan bangs his head into Edmures defenses over and over until Robb comes and orders the net to be closed around him, and KL falls.

Arya simply had the power to end the war then and there and let it get away. I don't particularly blame her, she's a ten year old being violently beaten, but she still should've thought it over more.

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We literally just discussed that. Tywin was right there in the castle, if Jaqen throws him out a window of the Kingspyre, Lannister morale collapses, Kevan bangs his head into Edmures defenses over and over until Robb comes and orders the net to be closed around him, and KL falls.

Arya simply had the power to end the war then and there and let it get away. I don't particularly blame her, she's a ten year old being violently beaten, but she still should've thought it over more.

yeah i'm an idiot, nevermind

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We literally just discussed that. Tywin was right there in the castle, if Jaqen throws him out a window of the Kingspyre, Lannister morale collapses, Kevan bangs his head into Edmures defenses over and over until Robb comes and orders the net to be closed around him, and KL falls.

Arya simply had the power to end the war then and there and let it get away. I don't particularly blame her, she's a ten year old being violently beaten, but she still should've thought it over more.

First of all Tywin is going to have personal guards, he is certainly going to be better protected than Chiswyck and Weese were. So when Jaqen says that it could take longer he means it, some kills are not going to be as easy as the second two.

 

Secondly, why would Kevan bang his head repeatedly instead of doing what Tywin did, receiving a message from Randyll and head to Kings Landing?

 

Stannis wants Joffrey killed and Tommen takes his place with little actual change, it would be similar with Tywin with the best ready made replacement, Kevan, being able to step in.

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Tywin will have guards, yes, but it's still not going to take months. Jaqen says it could take longer due to travel time. With a victim there in the castle, whom he's already scoped out and frankly probably expects Arya to name. It might take 2 days extra at the most on account of planning, but if Arya names Tywin he is not leaving Harrenhall alive.

As to the second, you have to remember how serious Robb being loose in the Westerlands is. Tywin dying will shatter Lannister morale, in all likelihood make the Tyrells at least consider backing off from the alliance, and when the news of Robb being loose in the West comes Kevan will literally have no choice but to drive him out. His bannermen will be so exhausted and demoralized that they will refuse to contemplate turning away from the West, not even to save Kings Landing. Tywin's reputation was enough to get them to; Kevan is respected but doesn't have Tywin's earthshaking reputation to keep them in line. You have to keep into account that this is a feudal army, with each lord having command of his men; put it under too much strain and it will shatter as Robb's does in OTL. 

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That situation was always just so stupid and careless.

It was basically George saying: Here I'm going to put Arya in a situation where her decisions could potentially change the war completely, but instead I'm going to have her make the wrong choices and completely forget that she was in such a crucial and completely game changing situation.

Something like this should forever haunt Arya and instead it becomes a forgotten memory from the past.

 

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