Sansa and the Giants - an analysis and prediction based on foreshadowing of Sansa's arc in the Vale

[ultravioletgaia]

What about Elia Sand the Lady Lance? Maybe she'd play a part in Sansa's arc too.

I think Hagen's daughter could also be a foreshadowing of Sansa.

here's a thread in reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3t22kj/spoilers_all_hagens_daughter/

[Regular John Umber]

Read this on your blog, great work.

[Andorion]

This is a very interesting theory. And here was me thinking that the giant referred to an Umber

[sweetsunray]

 

Well stuff like you found is about the only good outcome of GRRM not having Winds out yet. But people have so much time he is going to be losing some of his surprise factor. It is crazy how well he foreshadows things though, almost every word in every book sometimes has to be looked at a few times cause even something that looks minor on face surface ends up being a huge clue. its insane

 

But anyway I really do feel at some point Sansa has to get a big break for the better. I mean I guess escaping Kings Landing was, but with how much torture and bs has stayed through, hopefully she gets some positive things going that actually remain positive

Well it does take us years to unlock some of the metaphors, symbols and so on he uses to foreshadow it. Without the publishing gap we'd be reading it all straightforwardly without looking into the layers George worked in, until perhaps decades later. But yeah, I think we're gathering a pretty good picture of the rough plot for the Battle of Winterfell, the Riverlands rebellion and now the Vale imploding... and I'm getting very excited about reading it in tWoW. Wall chapters, Theon and Asha chapters, Jaime and Brienne and Sansa for sure should be thrilling reads.

Some of the foreshadowing is so plain in sight you read over it (like Ned's damnation of LF, Cersei, Varys, Renly, Jaime, Selmy and Slynt in the dungeons)... We're almost programmed to think of a pov character's wishes and curses as irrelevant, as ironic, as an emotion but having no impact. On the other hand a great many number of readers think connecting these words is going into it too deep. And yes, one need to be careful with it, or you end up with the black tomcat in the Red Keep == Azor Ahai. It still needs to make narrative sense and be plausible.

Still, the use of symbolism and parallelism in other scenes and chapters is a great device for an author to layer the story, but not as common in literature anymore (because it requires more work to write it in than just writing plot itself). You can write plot and you can write world/character building scenes, and it is in the latter that an author can stuff an enormous amount of foreshadowing, reflective or mirroring material. The Hand's Tourney is majorly world and character building. For the plot only Cersei's attempt to goad Robert into entering the melee is of relevance, and Renly's comment that it's a pity Tyrion isn't there, because then he'd win even more (since Tyrion wouldn't bet against Jaime) - a clue that goes way over Ned's head. Other than that it serves to introduce us to certain characters such as the Mountain, Loras and Sandor, and featuring Beric and Thoros. But that's two chapters George wrote about this tourney with some intense joust scenes, and it's a perfect setting for horses and knights with their sigils and personal dress of the day to work in foreshadowing, mirroring or reflection. The snow castle building scene is another perfect metaphor setting - George uses half a chapter to tell us about it, while solely LF's kiss and chucking Lysa through the moon door is of immediate plot relevance. And initially our mind struggles against the idea that a whole joust scene, or something as innocent as the complete tale of making a snow castle is a mini-tale enacted for the reader to tell us something of the past, present or future of the story.

Yeah, I too hope she does get something positive out of surviving it all.

[Seams]

Wow! Thank you for sharing this. I know you commented that some of this has been discussed and analyzed in other places, but it's all new to me. Very insightful, original and creative. Your ideas always engage me and help to reveal new ways of understanding GRRM's complex ideas and the interlocking symbols throughout the series. The mountain and avalanche foreshadowing helps to explain a number of things I hadn't been able to sort out. Great work.

The extended metaphor of the jousting and the tournaments is brilliant and I'm intrigued by the likelihood that GRRM wants us to see the ongoing combat situations throughout the realm as a continuation of the "pretend" combat at the tourneys. In that context, the Trial-by-Combat leading to the breaking and toppling of the Alyssa Arryn statue seems like part of your larger analysis of the combat motif in this story line. Bronn represents Tyrion in this sword fight, and Ser Vardis Egen represents House Arryn, with Lysa specifically choosing him because, "Ser Vardis Egen, you were ever my lord husband's good right hand. You shall be our champion" (AGoT, Chap. 38). So Vardis is standing in for Lysa's husband in this fight.

But your analysis makes it clear that the third party in this trial by combat is the statue, and that she represents Catelyn. Bronn's victory (on behalf of Tyrion) comes about because of the role the statue plays. What does this tell us about future events for Tyrion? Or for the fall of House Arryn? Will Lady Stoneheart do something that leads to a come-from-behind victory for Tyrion? Or does the statue take on a new symbolism when, as you point out, Catelyn's daughter stands beside it in this dream state? Like Catelyn, who becomes Lady Stoneheart, Sansa has also turned to Stone - Alayne Stone. The legend of Alyssa Arryn says she must weep until her tears reach the Vale. The tears never reach the valley - where Alyssa's loved ones were buried - because the flow from the waterfall always turns to mist while still high in the mountains. But doesn't that mean that the tears turn to snow? And here we have Sansa feeling reborn and invigorated by a fresh snowfall. Maybe GRRM gives us Sansa at the broken statue to show us that she is taking on the role of grieving for Catelyn's lost loved ones and, at the same time, maybe Sansa takes on the role foreshadowed by the wounded and fallen statue.

It seems like this would fit with the avalanche scenario you foresee: if snow from the mountain inundates the Gates of the Moon, maybe that will count as the tears of Alyssa finally reaching the Vale. If there is an Alyssa = Catelyn = Sansa equation ("Alayne" is almost a combination of the names "Alyssa" and "Catelyn" - minus "Cats"?), it also fits with your notion that Sansa will be at the center of the events surrounding the end of House Arryn, just as the statue pinned Ser Vardis Egen.

During the trial by combat, the statue is hit on its thigh and its elbow. Ned and Jon Snow suffer serious leg wounds (not from swords, though - Ned's horse falls on him and Jon is shot by a wildling arrow). The blow on the statue's arm seems more like Jaime Lannister's injury, although Jon Snow's arm is burned. [I wish there were a giant spread sheet of all of the injuries in ASOIAF to help with analysis of the meaning of each injury and of parallel characters with similar wounds - thank you to sarah.jenice for the list in the comments here of one-eyed characters who help us to understand the potential of Timett son of Timett.]

Another intriguing parallel among your central players: Hugh, who is killed by Gregor Clegane's lance, was a squire for Jon Arryn. Varys tells Ned that Hugh probably delivered the poison that killed Arryn. Ned believes this, and it seems that Hugh was knighted for his effort and that he may have been killed to hush up his knowledge of larger crimes. Later, Sansa is the unsuspecting courier of the poison that kills Joffrey. I wonder whether Sansa's lack of emotion at Hugh's death foreshadows the hardening of her personality after Joffrey's death and her transformation to (Alayne) Stone? If the death of poison-carrier Hugh at the end of Clegane's lance is supposed to directly foreshadow the death of poison-carrier Sansa, I wonder whether the Sansa will "die" in the avalanche? If so, I hope it's one of GRRM's symbolic deaths, with a symbolic rebirth to follow.

You asked about the curious phrasing: "Dawn stole into her garden like a thief." There is a famous poem by the British poet William Blake called A Poison Tree. The speaker says,

I was angry with my friend; 

I told my wrath, my wrath did end.

I was angry with my foe: 

I told it not, my wrath did grow. 

 

And I waterd it in fears,

Night & morning with my tears: 

And I sunned it with smiles,

And with soft deceitful wiles. 

 

And it grew both day and night. 

Till it bore an apple bright. 

And my foe beheld it shine,

And he knew that it was mine. 

 

And into my garden stole, 

When the night had veild the pole; 

In the morning glad I see; 

My foe outstretched beneath the tree.

 

Speaking of poison. But it seems as if there are a number of parallels - as well as contrasts - between Sansa's awakening scene and this poem - she is in a garden; she finds the courage to tell Littlefinger why she is mad at him. But she has noticed that no Godswood can grow on this ground, so there is no tree to water with her tears and no apple for her foe to covet and attempt to steal. Unless Littlefinger is both her friend and her enemy? Maybe stealing a kiss is like stealing the apple in the poem? Both could be interpreted as symbols of the fall from innocence.

 

I like your interpretation of the dawn stealing Sansa's black and white world by bringing color back into the day, but I think the meaning is different. Weirwood trees are white. Stark "colors" are grey and white. When the rising sun reveals the green in the trees and shrubs, I think Sansa feels the loss of her dream of waking at Winterfell. Green trees, in this case, may signal the departure of the old gods.  On his trip north, there is a passage where Bran describes the bare mountaintops as "stark". Maybe Sansa was reveling in the "starkness" of the mountain setting before the light came to ruin her daydream.

 

Your analysis is the first unified theory I've seen to explain the extreme layout of the Eyrie and I'm so grateful. I hope you don't mind if I throw in one more piece of the puzzle for consideration. Supposedly, the Eyrie is built out of marble quarried on Tarth, the sapphire isle. The sapphire name is derived from the beauty of the blue water surrounding the island. What could this connection mean? You shared passages from the books saying that the castle sits on the shoulder of the mountain called the Giant's Lance and that the waterfall known as Alyssa's Tears also falls from the shoulder of that mountain. The sapphire/water connection and the Eyrie/Tarth connection make me want to understand the role Brienne is likely to play in the fall of House Arryn. She is an agent for Catelyn/Lady Stoneheart. In the early hours of her escape with Jaime Lannister, she throws rocks off a cliff to ward off boats pursuing their party. Will she be part of the avalanche/landslide? Will the Eyrie itself fall?

 

Your Harry the Heir and Myranda Royce insights seem very credible. So far, though, I'm sticking with my theory that Sansa is, unfortunately, destined to die a maid. The Alyssa = Catelyn = Sansa equation even strengthens this theory: if she is supposed to cry over the bones of her lost loved ones, she could end up joining the Silent Sisters. This might also allow the creation of a chaste partnership with The Hound, if he is now the gravedigger. But Sansa as maid could still fit with your Harry betrothal scenario, if they don't get a chance to consummate their union before Harry dies. I hope we will get a direct introduction to Lady Anya Waynwood in TWoW. I suspect her pledge to Littlefinger regarding the Alayne/Harrold match has some secret catch that she withholds from Littlefinger - maybe Harry is already secretly married (we have only Myranda's word that he has fathered bastards). The fact that Harrold Hardyng is a knight also leads me to suspect that he will not be Sansa's true love. All of her expectations about "true knights" have turned out to be false, so far, and the real chivalry seems to come from people who don't carry "Ser" before their names. You compare Sansa and Margaery, who also seems destined to die a maid, in spite of her numerous weddings.

 

[Sorry, I used to know how to fix the formatting of posts, but I have to learn again under the new system.]

[sweetsunray]

First up, YAY!!! This is fabulous.

I only have a few minutes to dig into this, but a few initial thoughts. 

And ties in with the Twin Tower's Red Wedding. So--this time a slaughter that benefits a Stark? Sansa already was at another wedding--with a murder that kinda helped her. . . Might this tourney/slaughter help her?

Nice! Would also point out that Littlefinger (the false father) already helped kill Sansa's father--in part so he could steal her (as daughter as possible wife-stand-in). Less direct that the hill clans, but still.

Now, the idea that the Burned Men and Timmet (who were part of those who protected her from Joff while Dontos, Littlfinger's plant, just hit her with a melon) might help get her out of this. . . with the novels' themes of garbled patterns--the idea that the hill clans' abduction of Sansa could end up a positive (vs. her abduction by the "civilized" Littlefinger). . . the clans wouldn't be so much stealing Sansa as potentially liberating her.

Am already running out of time, but the Burned Men connection with Timmet, as I've said elsewhere, is perfection. Especially with their ties to Tyrion. And the symbolic tie to Sansa's protector and would-be-deliverer--the Very Large Burned Hound. The Hound can't get Arya safely into the Vale to "sell" her to her family. But the Burned Men could get Sansa out of the Vale--and maybe closer to her family?

And will have to get to the other sections tomorrow. But on your idea re: Sansa's snow section and the timeline: note (as others have pointed out to me) that she goes down a spiral stair. Like the crypts. Like the Nightfort. She's entering a type of underworld or even just a liminal space. So, the idea that she is stepping into the past. Into an echo of the past that is coming again--that symbol of the spiral stair into that kind of space holds really well in the books.

Again--this is fabulous.

*applause!*

*applause!*

Well, it will help free Sansa from LF's clutches. That's a positive. Heck, the realm will be rid of that conniver of chaos. Another positive. With Winter here and Others coming, who needs LF?

There's another scene where Timett appears at Tyrion's side - Joffrey's nameday tourney. Sansa has saved Dontos shortly before that, when he was about to be drowned after he gives up in his attempt to mount his red stallion. Joffrey halts the jousting of gnats, and Tommen gets to ride against the straw-man Baratheon that bangs him in the head from behind, and sending Tommen flying from his "seat". Just as he is about to get back up on his little horse and everyone comments he has bravery and spirit to try again, Tyrion appears and Tommen and Myrcella greet him lovingly. In "trail of the Red Stallion II" I analyzed that nameday tourney for foreshadowing. When we forget for a moment that George is describing the mountain clans, the description of Tyrion's companions could just as well be applicable to Dothraki (beards, long hair, leather, savage looking). So, I concluded that Tommen and Cersei flee KL for Casterly Rock (Tommen shouts "Casterly Rock" when he rides to attack the straw man), lose the throne, but then attempt to gather help to regain the seat, with Tyrion arriving together with men looking like Lannister allies and Dothraki to convince them to open the gate for him and do in Tywin's home what Tywin did to King's Landing.

But it's peculiar that Tyrion shows up twice in a KL chapter from Sansa's pov with Timett by his side. Even then Sansa notes him as one-eyed. I find Timett quite an enigma and intruiging: the combo of him being feared by ever mountain clan member, and yet the sole one who expresses no direct resentment against Tyrion ordering him around( except for a glare, one time) insofar that he becomes the first of the mountain clan Tyrion thinks of whenever he needs something done, and yet the first to return to the Vlae without even wanting to say hello to Tyrion, his understanding the concept of 'whores', and while acting rough like a soldier never displays disrespect to a woman. He doesn't get many lines, but he's featured as often as Shagga. Someone who is often featured (mentioned or described), both in Sansa povs and Tyrion povs but given no lines is suspicious to me. That's setting the stage for his reappearance in the plot, make him known but easy to have forgotten about him when he returns in the story.

Initially, I tought that if Timett were to abduct Sansa he might deliver her back to Tyrion, but I do not think so now. George had him conveniently leave KL and the Blackwater area immediately after the victory against Stannis, long before Tyrion's marriage to Sansa. And him just leaving without as much as an attempt to say goodbye to Tyrion, reveals he's not loyal to Tyrion beyond what Timett regarded as functionally usable for his own goals. He's a young man of not yet twenty in aGoT, perhaps 21 now. He's First Men, and if he considers himself the rightful First Men-Arryn heir of the Vale, well then he'd be pretty ambitious (as if that one eye didn't reveal that). He knows Sansa from sight at KL several times. She's a Stark and known to "pray in the godswood" and thus First Men, and of a royal line on top of it (daughter of the line of Kings of Winter). So, I would think Timett would want Sansa for himself. A Red Hand (FM high king) of the Vale would not say no to the chance of having a Stark daughter for his queen.

BTW when I use the word 'stealing' I tend to think of it as a wildling way, which I think is not a negatively intended social custom. Women are regarded as valuable members amongst the wildling clans or tribes or villages; and anyone of the village is regarded as kin and therefore off-bounds for a sexual relationship. So, when a woman marries, that is a loss of someone valuable to her community, when she leaves to live with the man she chooses. In that way a man "steals" a woman. The fight of a woman against the man who steals her, is not so much a fight against rape or dislike of the man, but a symbolic enactment of the woman showing to the man and her community how much she loves her kin and family and hates having to leave them. It is her visualisation of her struggle between the man she loves and the family she loves. When a woman really does not wish to be stolen by a certain man, the whole village cooperates to prevent it and sends the unwanted man with his tail between his legs running.

At the very least it would be quite interesting to see Sansa with the Burned Men, especially because of the "Burned" tie to Sandor. One could say that for a time Timett is to Tyrion what Sandor is to Joffrey (ignoring Bronn for a moment). Both a disfiguration in the face from burning. Both ordered around by a Lannister in a "master-dog" tone. Both rather quite men. And both leave KL right after the Battle of the Blackwater. Except, Timett is a young Sandor. Both could be a way out of the path she's following, a chance to escape her "plot" so to speak. But all things come in trees, and the Mad Mouse is the third time we see someone representing a path choice of her on a red horse. If he wasn't there and not riding a red horse, then yes, I would say that Sansa ending up with the Burned Men is a very valid option. But I think she will bet on the wrong horse for her own safety and hapiness for a third time. Just like she was too frightened of being "stolen" by Sandor (the beast), I think she will be too frightened of Timett (another beast) and the Burned Men. The events in the Vale imo will be an echo of what happened in KL in a aCoK, except with other disasters, characters, and a somewhat stronger Sansa, but not there yet. And her presonal reflection on Ser Hugh's death, and how no songs will be sung for him, her dissociation gives me a very strong impression the scenario will be the end of Sansa in the Vale.

And thank you

[sweetsunray]

What about Elia Sand the Lady Lance? Maybe she'd play a part in Sansa's arc too.

I think Hagen's daughter could also be a foreshadowing of Sansa.

here's a thread in reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3t22kj/spoilers_all_hagens_daughter/

Elia Sand: I discuss it in a spoiler tag as that tidbit and her character has an excerpt chapter of Arianne in tWoW as source (though you can find it on the wiki). It is not my intention to have this thread moved to tWoW section of the forum: one of the reasons I avoided using the Alayne excerpt chapter of tWoW for this theory as evidence.

Elia Sand sounds like an echo of Arya Stark: smells of horses, has her father's eyes, tomboyish. While Elia Sand might have a role to play in Sansa's arc, I don't regard the Lady Lance reference at this moment enough to tie it with Ser Hugh's death scene, because we can only match the word "lance", but no Vale tie, no mountain tie, no giant tie. I would however recommend taking notes on Elia Sand in tWoW whenever she appears, because she might serve as a parallel to Arya in relation to Sansa. She sounds like an older Arya. She is a sister to the other Sand Snakes. And she does tie to Sansa in that she loves jousting (except that Sansa loves to watch them, and she prefers to enter them).

With the Giant's Lance we have "mountain" + "giant" + "lance" repeated, with a repeated reference to the summer blue of House Arryn, and a knight of the Vale. Those are 5 hits. Those are too many to be coincidence. When George uses metaphors and symbolism to foreshadow something he repeats or creates multiple references. He can't use a marker to highlight passages or words for us. All he has are words. So multiple hits and repeated visuals is what he uses, as well as colors. The word red is George marking the sentence, the character or the paragraph for us with a red marker to say, "clue! clue! clue!" While repeatedly mentioning a blue cloak, or "dream" is another trick by George to say, "Hey, if you missed out on the fact that this is about a dream, I'll repeat it".  

Hagen's daughter is interesting. The author might have something there. Sansa's also married to a dwarf. Though I find the "Joffrey rejected Sansa" and "Sansa chose Tyrion" somewhat contrived. It might actually be about Sansa's arc of the handsome one versus the "beast". I do find it curious that George uses "wolves" there, since Sansa being sought by wolves (other than the Giant's Lance) would not be negative at all.

[sweetsunray]

Read this on your blog, great work.

Thank you (Don't be surprised of the theme color change if you visit it again: was forced to choose pink background, since somehow suddenly the sidebar menu text became unreadably grey in the theme's ice blue palette that I chose originally. grumble, grumble. Found no way to alter it back to the white with the ice blue color scheme, and could only choose between pink or purple palette to make the sidebar menu readable again. Me: very upset!)

This is a very interesting theory. And here was me thinking that the giant referred to an Umber

Thank you too Well, that's understandable. It was because I had been rereading some of Sansa's Vale chapters that I started to play with the reference of Gregor's lance. George does avoid referencing him as the Mountain in that paragraph, or a giant. Although he stresses twice how it is the "lance" doing the killing and he avoids saying Gregor killed Ser Hugh. And I wondered who Gregor could be representing, keeping his nickname the Mountain in the back of my mind and how he is such a human giant. Because of the reread I remembered how the mountain on which the Eyrie is built is described and features several times (and with it being featured so often I had a discturbed feeling about its damaging potential), but not even remembering its name. So, I decided to check for the name again, just for the heck of it, and my jaw pretty much dropped: a "mountain" that's called the Giant's Lance, and with its "peak" (aka head) hidden from view by clouds. Then I remembered the crushing ants imagery in Sansa's thoughts and how conveniently the Gates of the Moon are at the foot of that mountain. Initially I thought it might lose its peak, some serious rockslide or something, and then I thought.... hmmm, how about an avalanche? Might be more realistic than a mountain's peak crumling off? So, that avalanche idea started to form which I voiced in the metaphor sandbox thread here on the forum (courtesy Sly Wren), and then other posters in the thread searched for some quotes in support of my idea (the quote of the Mountain that rides like an avalance, courtesy Lady Dyanna IIRC - the quote help got lost with the forum transfer). That George included the same ominous imagery with regards the Gates of the Moon and the Giant's Lance in Catelyn's chapters in aGoT sealed it for me, since he did say that we can figure out the majority with the first book. So, I'm 100% certain we shall witness a natural disaster in the form of an avalanche coming down from the Giant's Lance killing at least one Arryn. The Horn of Winter myth and SR destroying the snow castle in a shaking fit is the extra to already tell us what causes the deadly avalanche. 

[sweetsunray]

Wow! Thank you for sharing this. I know you commented that some of this has been discussed and analyzed in other places, but it's all new to me. Very insightful, original and creative. Your ideas always engage me and help to reveal new ways of understanding GRRM's complex ideas and the interlocking symbols throughout the series. The mountain and avalanche foreshadowing helps to explain a number of things I hadn't been able to sort out. Great work.

Well, I mentioned my formation of the idea in the "Chthonic Cycle - Lyanna as Persephone" thread right about a day or two before the forum switch and since that thread dates from October, it was wiped away with the switch. And we briefly discussed it in Sly Wren's From Death to Dawn #4 thread (also gone), and Sly Wren, LmL and Lady Dyanna pulled some supportive quotes (like the avalanche one, or mentioning how Tyrion is referred to as a Giant) for me as well as linking the description of the Eyrie to Whitewalls (which I did not incorporate in the essay, for length reasons).

But when I mention in the essay how some things have been discussed before in the essay, I'm alluding to "from pawn to player" reread essays, who the "savage giant" may be in GoHH's prophecy (most think it's LF dying at the hands by Sansa directly or indirectly). Before summer someone posted a thread with the idea that the Burned Men might have a rivalling heir to Harry Hardyng, and when it comes to speculation threads on Harry the Heir and what might happen in the Vale in tWoW there is a common belief that he will die in a tourney (as a literal echo of Ser Hugh's tourney death), and that the Mad Mouse will abduct Sansa. So, saying that LF and Harry will die, that Timett might be an Arryn descendant and Shadrich taking Sansa out of there is not new. The avalanche idea is something I have not yet come across at all, and is something I conceived of all on my own.

Anyhow: thank you

The extended metaphor of the jousting and the tournaments is brilliant and I'm intrigued by the likelihood that GRRM wants us to see the ongoing combat situations throughout the realm as a continuation of the "pretend" combat at the tourneys.

 Actually, I think it is a certainty that is exactly how George wants us to regard the tourneys. Take for example this paragraph in Sansa's pov chapter during the Hand's Tourney:

The jousting went all day and into the dusk, the hooves of the great warhorses pounding down the lists until the field was a ragged wasteland of torn earth. (aGoT, Sansa II)

Quoting from my "trailof the red stallion II" essay: In the paragraph following the jousts of the Stark men-at-arms, we get a clear reference to the years of war between the Great Houses that will continue until the Long Night and that will pound Westeros into a wasteland and tear it assunder. That description during the tourney sentence describes how the Riverlands become a wasteland perfectly.

Or this one:

Jory, Alyn, and Harwin rode for Winterfell and the north. “Jory looks a beggar among these others,” Septa Mordane sniffed when he appeared. Sansa could only agree. Jory’s armor was blue-grey plate without device or ornament, and a thin grey cloak hung from his shoulders like a soiled rag.

We've got multiple House Stark references here, but House Stark ends up losig their home and soiled by reputation - House Stark is beggared.

Or this one:

Renly was unhorsed so violently that he seemed to fly backward off his charger, legs in the air. His head hit the ground with an audible crack that made the crowd gasp, but it was just the golden antler on his helm. One of the tines had snapped off beneath him.

A tine of an antler is like a branch of a tree, and when it comes to Houses and families we use the tree and its branches as a concept to indicate a "branch of the family". And it looks like at least one Baratheon branch of the family tree gets snapped off out of existence brutally: Robert's death, Renly's murder, and a foreshadowed violent ending for Stannis. Golden might also hint at Cersei's children (who are prophesied to die), or the royal Baratheon line (including Robert, Renly and Stannis).

During Joffrey's nameday tourney we get this:

The carpenters had erected a gallery and lists in the outer bailey. It was a poor thing indeed, and the meager throng that had gathered to watch filled but half the seats. Most of the spectators were guardsmen in the gold cloaks of the City Watch or the crimson of House Lannister; of lords and ladies there were but a paltry few, the handful that remained at court. (aCoK, Sansa I)

Since Joffrey and the Hound are not partaking in the tourney, but Tommen does, this tourney is about events during King Tommen's reign. By then many houses have lost heirs, or are already wiped out, or beggared (losing their castle and lands). People suffer from hunger. The sparrows gain power from that. And the wars are fought not by the Great Houses anymore, but secondary houses.

Several paragraphs cover a joust between Meryn Trant and Hobber Redwyne. KG Meryn Trant is a cold killing machine, on a snowwhite horse (looking all innocent), while Hobber rides a black horse (blackened by smear-campaign). It is a foreshadowing of Cersei fighting the Tyrells. Hobber and Horras Redwyne are Olenna's grandchildren just as much as Margaery, Loras and Garlan are. Olenna is a Redwyne, sister of a former Lord Redwyne, and her eldest daughter married her Redwyne cousin, Olenna's Redwyne nephew who became Lord after Olenna's brother. Hobber and Hoster are Olenna's grandchildren by that daughter. It ends badly for Hobber in the joust (on the second clash). Horras later defeats an old greying knight with a silver griffin for a sigil.

Balon Swann fights Morros Slynt (Janos' eldest son). Balon Swann is of House Swann. His father, Lord Swann "takes no part" in the wars, but his two sons fight on both sides (Balon for Joffrey and later becomes KG, while his brother fights for Stannis at the Blackwater). And then we have Lady Smallwood who helps the BwB in the Riverlands: Lady Smallwood is actually Ravella Swann (relation unclear) per the character info in the back of the books. The seat of House Swann is situated in the "Red Watch". Meanwhile, despite Balon remaining at court and becoming KG he has his own opinions (and not favorable to Cersei), does not lie during Tyrion's trial and mentions he doesn't believe Tyrion is guilty. He does his duty, but without compromising his honor. So, we have several references to the Watch and taking no part, as well as serving all kings, even a man who echoes Jon Snow, and he jousts against a Slynt. Sansa hopes Balon kills the Slynt. Balon wins, and Morros is unhorsed, but gets stuck with his foot in the stirrup and his "head bounces on the ground" several times. 

Cersei calls it the "game of thrones", and tourneys are a type of "games". So, yes, the tourneys definitely are mini-metaphors of grander events of the wars fought and political games played in Westeros.

In that context, the Trial-by-Combat leading to the breaking and toppling of the Alyssa Arryn statue seems like part of your larger analysis of the combat motif in this story line. Bronn represents Tyrion in this sword fight, and Ser Vardis Egen represents House Arryn, with Lysa specifically choosing him because, "Ser Vardis Egen, you were ever my lord husband's good right hand. You shall be our champion" (AGoT, Chap. 38). So Vardis is standing in for Lysa's husband in this fight.

But your analysis makes it clear that the third party in this trial by combat is the statue, and that she represents Catelyn. Bronn's victory (on behalf of Tyrion) comes about because of the role the statue plays. What does this tell us about future events for Tyrion? Or for the fall of House Arryn? Will Lady Stoneheart do something that leads to a come-from-behind victory for Tyrion? Or does the statue take on a new symbolism when, as you point out, Catelyn's daughter stands beside it in this dream state? Like Catelyn, who becomes Lady Stoneheart, Sansa has also turned to Stone - Alayne Stone. The legend of Alyssa Arryn says she must weep until her tears reach the Vale. The tears never reach the valley - where Alyssa's loved ones were buried - because the flow from the waterfall always turns to mist while still high in the mountains. But doesn't that mean that the tears turn to snow? And here we have Sansa feeling reborn and invigorated by a fresh snowfall. Maybe GRRM gives us Sansa at the broken statue to show us that she is taking on the role of grieving for Catelyn's lost loved ones and, at the same time, maybe Sansa takes on the role foreshadowed by the wounded and fallen statue.

I like your summary of the idea behind it, yes!

Though I would say that Vardis stands in for Lysa, rather than Jon Arryn (she picked him as her champion). Lysa we later learn has been following LF's ideas, tips and guidelines... doing what he wants. So, you can see it as a fight between LF and Tyrion. Catelyn is unwittingly doing what LF wants as well (by arresting Tyrion), and as a consequence of those actions (as a butterfly effect) Tywin has the RL raided, Jaime confronts Ned in which he's harmed severely with the fall from his horse (his favorite horse) which prevented him from leaving KL with her daughters after he resigned as Hand. She loses her husband, her son, her two homes, her daughters and is broken, and on top of that resurrected after death to roam the Riverlands. Freeing Jaime has more consequences, including Jaime losing his hand. 

The abduction of Tyrion and him winning the trial leads to him encountering and eventually arming the Mountain Clans with hauberks and better steel, as well as experience and plunder. By extension, the mountain clans conquering the Bloody Gate is Tyrion winning over House Arryn. And yes, I think that LS & BwB will hurt House Frey and the Lannister forces in the RL tremendously, thereby weakening Cersei. Heck it appears she already had Brienne kidnap Jaime, who was LC of the KG and Lannister forces for her already. Addam Marbrand rides a red stallion, and went looking for the Blackfish in the area where Arya traveled with the BwB in aSoS, which is also terriroty of that giant wolf pack. Crakehall is partying in Darry, which holds open house and seems like an ideal candidate for a rebellion attack. And then we have Daven Lannister somewhere in the RL, most likely Riverrun, where we can expect a RW 2.0. House Lannister will end up seriously weakened with all those able war leaders going missing or ending up dead in the RL, making it far easier for Tyrion to battle his own sister when he returns.

Alyssa's Tears have turned into ice. But I like your idea of seeing the snowfall as Sansa's and her mother's tears.

It seems like this would fit with the avalanche scenario you foresee: if snow from the mountain inundates the Gates of the Moon, maybe that will count as the tears of Alyssa finally reaching the Vale. If there is an Alyssa = Catelyn = Sansa equation ("Alayne" is almost a combination of the names "Alyssa" and "Catelyn" - minus "Cats"?), it also fits with your notion that Sansa will be at the center of the events surrounding the end of House Arryn, just as the statue pinned Ser Vardis Egen.

Well, I think the frozen waterfall will break off and its icicles will touch the soil. Perhaps when that happens we see LS pass on from Westeros? Funny, I found the Alyssa and Alayne as Sansa names sounding eerily similar.

During the trial by combat, the statue is hit on its thigh and its elbow. Ned and Jon Snow suffer serious leg wounds (not from swords, though - Ned's horse falls on him and Jon is shot by a wildling arrow). The blow on the statue's arm seems more like Jaime Lannister's injury, although Jon Snow's arm is burned. [I wish there were a giant spread sheet of all of the injuries in ASOIAF to help with analysis of the meaning of each injury and of parallel characters with similar wounds - thank you to sarah.jenice for the list in the comments here of one-eyed characters who help us to understand the potential of Timett son of Timett.]

In "Trail of the Red Stallion" I mention Ned's leg wound as that of a possible Fisher King wound (courtesy to others for pushing me to consider the Fisher King wounding). The Fisher King is a guard of the grail with a leg wound (by a spear) that does not heal and it serves as a metaphor how the King's land is detoriating, falling apart. He's called Fisher King, because all he can do is fish at the moat. Sometimes there are two kings, with the father being called the "Old King" and his son the "Fisher King". Where the Fisher King is wounded on his leg is a hint of the Fisher King's sin (for which he is wounded), and the described nature of the spear (which varies from legend to legend) also says something. If the Fisher King is wounded near the groin (the groin, upper leg) then he has sinned by taking a secret wife he's not supposed to have (ding! ding! Jon Snow getting wounded in the upper leg by Ygritte's arrow). In Ned's case he's wounded on the leg as far as possible from the groin - the calf (so no sin of aduletery) and it happens because his favorite horse falls. In other words, Ned's choice of horse to trust is his downfall, and in the joust between Gregor and Loras we have a horny stallion with fierce temperament against a beautiful, slender "grey" mare and Loras wearing a cloak made of blue forget-me-nots: Robert versus Lyanna...and Ned trusted, chose and loved Robert the best. Ned's favorite horse is Robert. Loras wins, but Gregor decapitates his horse (and that scene with Sansa screaming and crying is the same as that of Ned's beheading).

 

Another intriguing parallel among your central players Hugh, who is killed by Gregor Clegane's lance, was a squire for Jon Arryn. Varys tells Ned that Hugh probably delivered the poison that killed Arryn. Ned believes this, and it seems that Hugh was knighted for his effort and that he may have been killed to hush up his knowledge of larger crimes. Later, Sansa is the unsuspecting courier of the poison that kills Joffrey. I wonder whether Sansa's lack of emotion at Hugh's death foreshadows the hardening of her personality after Joffrey's death and her transformation to (Alayne) Stone? If the death of poison-carrier Hugh at the end of Clegane's lance is supposed to directly foreshadow the death of poison-carrier Sansa, I wonder whether the Sansa will "die" in the avalanche? If so, I hope it's one of GRRM's symbolic deaths, with a symbolic rebirth to follow.

You asked about the curious phrasing: "Dawn stole into her garden like a thief." There is a famous poem by the British poet William Blake called A Poison Tree. The speaker says,

I'm not sure I believe Varys hinting at Ser Hugh being the poisoner. After all, Pycelle admitted to sabotaging saving Jon Arryn's life because he knew too much. Nor do I believe that Gregor killed Ser Hugh on purpose. It's possible, but not certain. Varys is planting ideas in Ned's head to make him distrust Cersei.

I'll answer the rest of your post tomorrow.

 

[Lord Wraith]

I guess I'm the only person thinking that there is a slight chance of Lord Baelish surviving the series. The karma houdini of Westeros.

[sweetsunray]

[Sorry, I used to know how to fix the formatting of posts, but I have to learn again under the new system.]

Seams, when you want to continue writing a post after a quote, hover over the quote section and a red dotted line appears with an arrow. Click on the arrow and an enter outside of the quote-block is created.

You asked about the curious phrasing: "Dawn stole into her garden like a thief." There is a famous poem by the British poet William Blake called A Poison Tree. The speaker says,

I was angry with my friend; 

I told my wrath, my wrath did end.

I was angry with my foe: 

I told it not, my wrath did grow. 

 

And I waterd it in fears,

Night & morning with my tears: 

And I sunned it with smiles,

And with soft deceitful wiles. 

 

And it grew both day and night. 

Till it bore an apple bright. 

And my foe beheld it shine,

And he knew that it was mine. 

 

And into my garden stole, 

When the night had veild the pole; 

In the morning glad I see; 

My foe outstretched beneath the tree.

That might very well be the answer! It fits Sansa a lot. We see her express all her resentment against Arya, but she has none anymore. But she never voices her resentment against Cersei, Joffrey, etc. She is too frightened to speak her mind, weeps in privacy, and instead conjures smiles and sweet words. There is an apple connection for her through the Idunn comparison.

Speaking of poison. But it seems as if there are a number of parallels - as well as contrasts - between Sansa's awakening scene and this poem - she is in a garden; she finds the courage to tell Littlefinger why she is mad at him. But she has noticed that no Godswood can grow on this ground, so there is no tree to water with her tears and no apple for her foe to covet and attempt to steal. Unless Littlefinger is both her friend and her enemy? Maybe stealing a kiss is like stealing the apple in the poem? Both could be interpreted as symbols of the fall from innocence.

I used to regard LF as solely her enemy disguising himself as her friend: as one who'd sacrifice her instantly if required or needed. But now I'm less sure about it. Something happens to LF in the garden as he watches Sansa build her snow castle: he falls under her spell. I consider him a psychopath, and as they don't have empathy they don't know love; don't experience it. Lust and desire to possess is what they'd call 'love'. But they don't experience the "caring for and about" part of love (receptors don't do anything with the bonding hormones as happens to normal people). So, I have a very hard time accepting the notion that LF actually cares for Sansa, but rereading that snow castle building scene I can't deny that perhaps for the first time LF actually experiences the feelings of caring. Him lusting after Sansa as a younger version of Cat just doesn't seem enough for him to stoop down on his knees, carefully avoiding to knock something down, and make his hands dirty to create some latticework with twigs. For a grown man the snow castle is a child's game. If it was just a ruse to make her trust him, then he'd incorporate some sabotage in it and veiled comments to make her feel dumb during the building. Yes, he's still a creep lusting after her, with malicious sexual intentions, and using classic pedophile tactics against a young girl who tries to remain polite and reason with him in the end, but I still come away from that scene that Sansa managed to truly affect him. As that would be the first time he'd experience "careing for" feelings, and he wouldn't have an internal clue what to do with it, he subverts it himself into the creepy kissing, if only to frame the unkown new feeling into something he's far more familiar with. And I'm not saying he cared for her before. Obviously he didn't, since he was able to sabotage any marriage plans to Willas and have her marry Tyrion. She's a shiny "object" he wants until the garden scene. But she becomes a person to him in the garden, a shiny "person" he wants. That quite frankly is magical, as a psychopath in the real world simply cannot bond and feel caring affection for a person in that way. Everyone else but themselves remain objects.

We realize lust and desire to possess is not enough when he decides to off Lysa and what it costs him: it is a set back for him. Sure, he wings it by bribing Nestor Royce and Corbray and Lady Waynwood. But he was in a perfect comfortable position. All he needed to do to keep Sansa safe was to send her to another hide-out with Lothor and other assistants of his, and ditch Lysa years later. Instead he kills her there and then and gets himself in a situation where his power position is under genuine threat and unattainable in the long run; worse he actually becomes dependent of Sansa (and not in the parasitic way, but the "I hope she does what needs to be done or I'm fucked" way).

I used to think Lothor was LF's Sandor who'd she manage to get on her side completely through helping him gain Mya Stone's notice; and I think that's still in the cards, but LF truly falling under Sansa's spell and turning on Lysa the moment he does, says to me that's a Sandor-Joffrey parallel as well.

I like your interpretation of the dawn stealing Sansa's black and white world by bringing color back into the day, but I think the meaning is different. Weirwood trees are white. Stark "colors" are grey and white. When the rising sun reveals the green in the trees and shrubs, I think Sansa feels the loss of her dream of waking at Winterfell. Green trees, in this case, may signal the departure of the old gods.  On his trip north, there is a passage where Bran describes the bare mountaintops as "stark". Maybe Sansa was reveling in the "starkness" of the mountain setting before the light came to ruin her daydream.

I see your point about weirwood trees. Weirwood trees are white and red, not green. But the keepers at the Gods Eye (where there are plenty of weirwood trees) are called green men. And in the Reach we have Garth the Green, who wore a crown of vines and flowers and made the land bloom. He definitely is of the Old Gods religion since he's said to interact with CotF and Giants. He might even be an ancestor of Bran the Builder in some versions. So, I very much doubt the appearance of green signals the departure of the old gods. 

Your analysis is the first unified theory I've seen to explain the extreme layout of the Eyrie and I'm so grateful. I hope you don't mind if I throw in one more piece of the puzzle for consideration. Supposedly, the Eyrie is built out of marble quarried on Tarth, the sapphire isle. The sapphire name is derived from the beauty of the blue water surrounding the island. What could this connection mean? You shared passages from the books saying that the castle sits on the shoulder of the mountain called the Giant's Lance and that the waterfall known as Alyssa's Tears also falls from the shoulder of that mountain. The sapphire/water connection and the Eyrie/Tarth connection make me want to understand the role Brienne is likely to play in the fall of House Arryn. She is an agent for Catelyn/Lady Stoneheart. In the early hours of her escape with Jaime Lannister, she throws rocks off a cliff to ward off boats pursuing their party. Will she be part of the avalanche/landslide? Will the Eyrie itself fall?

Well, the description of the hall at the Eyrie doesn't just link to Tarth, but to Whitewalls.

Whitewalls was almost new as castles went, having been raised a mere forty years ago by the grandsire of its present lord. The smallfolk hereabouts called it the Milk house, for its walls and keeps and towers were made of finely dressed white stone, quarried in the Vale and brought over the mountains at great expense. Inside were floors and pillars of milky white marble veined with gold; the rafters overhead were carved from the bone-pale trunks of weirwoods. Dunk could not begin to imagine what all of that had cost. (The Mystery Knight)

The High Hall of the Arryns was long and austere, with a forbidding coldness to its walls of blue-veined white marble, but the faces around him had been colder by far. ... She raised her voice so it carried down the length of High Hall of the Eyrie, ringing off the milk-white walls and the slender pillars, so every man could hear it. (aGoT, Tyrion V)

And the throne and moon door are made of weirwood at the Eyrie. So, we have Whitewalls built from white stone of the Vale and gold-veined milky white marble (and therefore called the Milk house). And then in the Vale we have the Eyrie built from milk-white white stone and blue-veined marble from Tarth. What happens to Whitewalls: Bloodraven has it taken down stone by stone and the soil salted so that the land will be abandoned and nothing can grow or take root there anymore. So, I'd say yes, the Eyrie will crumble brick by brick and be carried along with the avalanche as debris. The Vale though has nothing to do with Lord Ambrose's defeat and the demise of his seat and house. So, I think it's actually a hint that Brienne will have nothing to do with the demise of House Arryn or the Eyrie. Instead of her showing up as a person in the Vale and making rocks fall or cause an avalanche, the throwing of rocks to sink the boat that follows hers in the RL can be seen as Tarth rocks falling.

Your Harry the Heir and Myranda Royce insights seem very credible. So far, though, I'm sticking with my theory that Sansa is, unfortunately, destined to die a maid. The Alyssa = Catelyn = Sansa equation even strengthens this theory: if she is supposed to cry over the bones of her lost loved ones, she could end up joining the Silent Sisters. This might also allow the creation of a chaste partnership with The Hound, if he is now the gravedigger. But Sansa as maid could still fit with your Harry betrothal scenario, if they don't get a chance to consummate their union before Harry dies. I hope we will get a direct introduction to Lady Anya Waynwood in TWoW. I suspect her pledge to Littlefinger regarding the Alayne/Harrold match has some secret catch that she withholds from Littlefinger - maybe Harry is already secretly married (we have only Myranda's word that he has fathered bastards). The fact that Harrold Hardyng is a knight also leads me to suspect that he will not be Sansa's true love. All of her expectations about "true knights" have turned out to be false, so far, and the real chivalry seems to come from people who don't carry "Ser" before their names. You compare Sansa and Margaery, who also seems destined to die a maid, in spite of her numerous weddings.

Sansa can still become a silent sister, as a widow or without her maidenhood. The third daughter of Alys Arryn ran off with a man, delivered a bastard (that died) and joined the silent sisters. Septas are supposed to enter pure and trained into it since their youth, whereas silent sisters accepts all types of "fallen" women into their order. It's a type of penitence.

Sansa can still be married to Harry, with the wedding feast being interrupted by the news of an attack, and Harry going off to his doom, without the marriage being consummated, because the groom dies on his wedding day for example (like Joffrey dies on his wedding day to Margaery). But I'm not a believer of Sansa staying a maiden, or Margaery. I don't think Queen Elizabeth of the Tudors was actually a maiden either. I can see the narrative appeal for it in a symbolical way, but it would throw a serious wrench in Sansa's prospects to have her marriage to Tyrion annulled if she is not anymore. Imo it can go either way. I don't think it's definite that Harry plucks Sansa's flower, but at the moment there's a missing third flower.

We have Myranda and LF's words about Harry having bastards. Myranda knows of one. LF knows about a second one on the way.

Now, I do not claim Harry will be Sansa's actual "true love" (as in The One), or that he's a "true knight". He sounds like a young Robert Baratheon. But it doesn't mean Sansa would abhor him, and I don't think George intends him to be the worst of people. One can have positive romantic interactions and experiences with someone who are not "the one", especially if it's the courting/chasing phase and only brief. We can still have pleasant memories of someone who swept us off our feet when we were young, but it ended up going nowhere. That's what I think the romantic experience will be like. He'll fancy himself in love with Sansa, like Robert "loves" and "adores" this woman or that woman, make some grand declaration (like Robert tends to make grand declarations of devout love), agrees to marry her, but we'll get a portrait of a shallow pompous jock who rides out believing he's invincible for glory and destiny and it comes to nothing. She'll fancy herself in love as well, until the news reaches her that he's dead, and she realizes that her feelings for him weren't all that deep either - that he was probably one of the better men she was betrothed or married to, but had serious flaws.

So, no, not "true love", but just a positive romantic experience. Realistically most people kiss someone ok they fancied themselves in love with, but who we rapidly outgrow (especially as teens) within months or weeks, without abhorring that person even and still remembering that first kiss with them fondly, despite cringing at the idea of kissing them again a month after that first kiss. 

[Sly Wren]

Initially, I tought that if Timett were to abduct Sansa he might deliver her back to Tyrion, but I do not think so now. George had him conveniently leave KL and the Blackwater area immediately after the victory against Stannis, long before Tyrion's marriage to Sansa. And him just leaving without as much as an attempt to say goodbye to Tyrion, reveals he's not loyal to Tyrion beyond what Timett regarded as functionally usable for his own goals. He's a young man of not yet twenty in aGoT, perhaps 21 now. He's First Men, and if he considers himself the rightful First Men-Arryn heir of the Vale, well then he'd be pretty ambitious (as if that one eye didn't reveal that). He knows Sansa from sight at KL several times. She's a Stark and known to "pray in the godswood" and thus First Men, and of a royal line on top of it (daughter of the line of Kings of Winter). So, I would think Timett would want Sansa for himself. A Red Hand (FM high king) of the Vale would not say no to the chance of having a Stark daughter for his queen.

I agree with your connections re: the nameday tourney. And on Timmet's presence. Especially since he's there at the same time as the Hound--another burned man--a few times. 

I agree that Timmet might want Sansa for his own. But am wondering about her scene with the Hound. Granted, she backs him off in part because of her innocence and their previous interactions, but she backs him off. Calms him down. The taming of the Hound. . . am wondering if it might work on other Burned Men. 

But Sansa might be in for an adventure with the clansmen, depending on how far Martin wants to go with it. He's already had Jon trek with the wildlings and Tyrion with the tribesmen. Is he up for the Wild Men of the Hills part III?

BTW when I use the word 'stealing' I tend to think of it as a wildling way, which I think is not a negatively intended social custom. Women are regarded as valuable members amongst the wildling clans or tribes or villages; and anyone of the village is regarded as kin and therefore off-bounds for a sexual relationship. So, when a woman marries, that is a loss of someone valuable to her community, when she leaves to live with the man she chooses. In that way a man "steals" a woman. The fight of a woman against the man who steals her, is not so much a fight against rape or dislike of the man, but a symbolic enactment of the woman showing to the man and her community how much she loves her kin and family and hates having to leave them. It is her visualisation of her struggle between the man she loves and the family she loves. When a woman really does not wish to be stolen by a certain man, the whole village cooperates to prevent it and sends the unwanted man with his tail between his legs running.

And perhaps this is where the Bronze Yohn might come in handy. Sansa's already been stolen. Am wondering if she might refuse, assuming she can recognize Yohn's potential to help.

At the very least it would be quite interesting to see Sansa with the Burned Men, especially because of the "Burned" tie to Sandor. One could say that for a time Timett is to Tyrion what Sandor is to Joffrey (ignoring Bronn for a moment). Both a disfiguration in the face from burning. Both ordered around by a Lannister in a "master-dog" tone. Both rather quite men. And both leave KL right after the Battle of the Blackwater. Except, Timett is a young Sandor. Both could be a way out of the path she's following, a chance to escape her "plot" so to speak. But all things come in trees, and the Mad Mouse is the third time we see someone representing a path choice of her on a red horse. If he wasn't there and not riding a red horse, then yes, I would say that Sansa ending up with the Burned Men is a very valid option. But I think she will bet on the wrong horse for her own safety and hapiness for a third time. Just like she was too frightened of being "stolen" by Sandor (the beast), I think she will be too frightened of Timett (another beast) and the Burned Men. The events in the Vale imo will be an echo of what happened in KL in a aCoK, except with other disasters, characters, and a somewhat stronger Sansa, but not there yet. And her presonal reflection on Ser Hugh's death, and how no songs will be sung for him, her dissociation gives me a very strong impression the scenario will be the end of Sansa in the Vale.

I agree that Sansa's not going with Sandor the first time is worrisome. But she kept that cloak. She remembered him as kissing her. For once, her imagination pushed her to idealize someone helpful. Same with her thought that she'd rather just stay married to Tyrion than marry Robin. Throw in the disappointment of Dontos--she wanted to get away from Tyrion and the Burned Men to meet Dontos in the godswood. Now, she's rather stay with Tyrion than marry Robin. Maybe, just maybe, she'll actually pick someone who will really help her.

Now, if she can just put together all the information she's been given--especially Lysa's info dump.

And thank you

Now, just need to find a second to dig into the rest of the essay. . . 

[Scorpion92]

Amazing essays sweetsunray, I am convinced! I am still doubting Sweetrobin will die in the avalanche because I think he is destined to meet Dany and have a ride on a dragon like Visenya offered to a boy Arryn. But what do I know? It is just if Sweetrobin is keep getting poisoned, he will be too sickly to do something about Sansa's actions, but I dunno.

I definitely think that after Gates of the Moon are captured by mountain clans, Sansa will see that there is nothing left for her in Eyrie and escape with Ser Shadrich, probably to Gulltown. The reason for that is because the path through Bloody Gate is captured by clans, plus on a ship Sansa will have no idea where she is going until she gets out in some port and it is too late. Shadrich might promise to take her to White Harbor, but she will arrive somewhere else, either something to do witn Aegon or maybe back in King's Landing.

I also was a fan of theories that involve Timmett and mountain clans taking over the Vale of Arryn. I am just sceptical about mountain clans' numbers to do that. Maybe when Tyrion and Dothraki arrive through that main river in the Vale that reaches into Riverlands, the Imp will assist Timmett in taking over? Although it would be awesome if Tyrion arrives to an already conquered Vale and gets new rulers of the Vale to ally with Dany for an upcoming Dance of the Dragons.

The destruction of the Eyrie actually kinda makes me believe in my pet theory more and more: that all capitals of Westerosi regions will fall one by one, the last symbols of sovereignty and autonomy of each region. In order to completely unite Westeros you need to destroy the capitals which ruin that unity and build a new one in the crossroads.

I think Winterfell will be destroyed in the upcoming White Walker invasion, which for me means Rickon's automatic death, there is just no reason for him to stay in the story if he is not Lord of Winterfell by the end, in my opinion. Riverrun will be cursed for the same reason Twins are, they will commit Red Wedding 2.0, which means both houses Tully and Frey will cease to exist in name (Blackfish and Edmure and Edmure's child will die by the end of a saga).

By your theory, House Arryn and the Eyrie will be destroyed.  Sunspear, Water Gardens and House Martell will be burned by Dany and her dragons for their allegiance to Aegon (House Yronwood, presumably First Men house, Bloodroyals, replacing them as Lord Paramounts of Dorne, appointed by Dany, possibly marrying Gwyneth Yronwood and last standing Martell, Quentyn, who grew up around and likes Bloodroyals, and no, he is not dead).

Pyke and Iron Islands are doomed as well as there is going to be a big tsunami caused by Long Night cataclysm (LmL's theory), ironborn will be "drowned", and Theon as an agent of Old Gods and Bran will move ironborn to Cape Kraken in the North, "the promised land", like Moses led Jews from Egypt, convert them to Old Gods and make them swear fealty to King Jon, since they believe in "what is dead may never die", and Jon is exactly that. Since Theon is castrated, House Greyjoy will be extinct in name as well, but at least Theon will help his people and move them to "mainland" and continue his grandfather Quellon's work of integrating ironborn into Westeros.

Casterly Rock, Highgarden and Storm's End (especially since Melisandre burned all weirwoods, a big no-no) are all doomed to be destroyed as well, by one reason or another, and with it Houses Tyrell, Lannister and Baratheon. Gendry will be the last survivor of the line of Storm Kings, but he will start a new house and perhaps take a bull for his sigil. Tyrion will continue stay married to Sansa, in my opinion, but he will never consummate a marriage with her, and they will not have kids, and therefore Lannister name will die out with Tyrion. Maybe Tyrion and Sansa will foster Jaime and Brienne's bastard son, the only hope for Lannister line., but I am not sure about that. I bet Tywin will be happy in his grave.

House Stark will become the new royal house of Westeros and move its seat to a new castle built in Winterfell image on Harrenhal grounds, with a new capitola around it. Harrenhal is "a seat of kings" after all according to Tywin, and only a king can hold it without a curse. I am sure Bran and nearby greenmen of Isle of Faces will help Jon with blessing the place. Eventually, there will be no title of Lord Paramounts, there is going to be a singular kingdom with a new capital and a new royal house (King's Landing will burn by Cersei's hands).

Yeah, I kinda went off-topic a little, sorry about that, did not mean it, but I just wanted to show that your theory of the Eyrie and Arryn bloodline going extinct kinda adds fuel to my little pet theory. Thanks again!

 

[sweetsunray]

Of course the mountain clans can never be a real threat without the avalanche disaster happening first. But...

tWoW excerpt info

We know for a certainty a tourney is organized in the Vale. That chapter was initially intended to be featured in aDwD, but got moved up for tWoW. The men fighting at the tourney are all bachelors, since the winners would enter a 3 year service of the Winged Knights, the equivalent of the KG for the Lord of the Vale. Aside from Yohn Royce, every major House of the Vale will be sending their bachelor heirs and second and third sons and grandsons to the Tourney for such an honor. It's pretty much the same PR idea that Renly had. So, that's a lot of the fight eager knight elite of the whole Vale present at the Gates of the Moon + their squires and hedge knights, etc. Perhaps, George even has fighting men of the Vale (partly armies) gathered in the valley.

Just the avalanche alone will have a massive dead count. If there are armies in the valley, the death toll might go in the thousands. a powder snow avalanche is basically 10000 weight rushing at them at 300mph. Anyone surviving it is a miracle by itself. But let's say there are no armies, only the bachelor knights. It's just a whole generation of Vale nobility (except the main Royce branch) being whiped out of the face of Planetos in one go. Yes, the Vale would still have 40k of foot soldiers and pikes, but no heavy cavalry of knights anymore. And if the Vale armies aren't even in the valley, how will they get to it in time? They still have to cross through snowed in mountain passes. 

 The mountain clans have attacked the valley at least twice with a thousand men. They have multiplied by 300% to 3000 fighters now, fighters who don't mind attacking in winter. That's 1000 less that the Twins army. With damage to the Bloody Gate and the Gates of the Moon a rubble of stone and snow and massive loss of the knights present, how would they stop those 3000 fighters? They can't.

I agree that we will see each region experience heavy losses and a complete destabilization of the Houses:

• North: already happened, House Stark is homeless, believed to be all dead except for missing Sansa and a bastard (who was stabbed). And the in-fighting ain't over yet.
• Riverlands: already happened. House Tully is homeless, with Freys and Lannisters ruling it in LF's absence. And the in-fighting ain't over yet.
• Stormlands: already happened. House Baratheon (Stannis) is homeless. And the fighting there ain't over yet, with Aegon's blitzkrieg.
• The Reach: happening. And it doesn't look good for House Tyrell in their feud with Cersei as foreshadowed in Joffrey's nameday tourney with the joust between Hobber Redwyne and Trant. It is quite possible that some important Tyrell figures will get killed. Meanwhile the Reach is also under attack by the Ironmen.
• Crownlands and King's Landing: happening. Cersei's gonna fuck up badly.
• Dorne: happening. One of Doran's children is already dead.
• Pyke: I think you're right about the tsunami.
• Westerlands: will stand the longest, but foreshadowed to be sacked by Tyrion pretty much using the same tactics as Tywin did when he sacked KL.

I notice another pattern: a combination of old gods forces + fire elemental magic cooperating.

• North: BR is a blood and fire guy but using the Old Gods weirnet, with Odin's one-eye. Jon will likely be resurrected or healed by some fire magic, but he's an Old Gods follower and skinchanger.
• Riverlands: weirnet stuff, Isle of Faces, wolves (Odin and Old Gods) magic used by Red God followers, and fire magic resurrections
• Vale: Old Gods mountain clans but Burned Men and One-eyed Timett, who worshipped some dragonrider

I think what we're seeing is tree-magic and fire-magic cooperating to prepare for the Long Night disaster. The characters or factions blending Old Gods with fire-magic or Red God with tree and skinchanging magic will be the ones I expect to manage to gain the regional seats, early winter and start of the Long Night. Those who rely on only one or none at all will fall.

[Nevets]

My biggest problem with this scenario is that it appears that you are suggesting a massive natural disaster will occur which sets the stage for the continuation of the Vale plot by removing one or more main characters, and a large part of the Vale Army, essentially decapitating the Vale's military and political structure.  A disaster which will come out of nowhere with no foreshadowing, at least as far as the average (and above average) reader is concerned.  This smacks of Deus ex Machina, which GRRM has mostly avoided, especially with regard to natural events.  He has characters meet up in highly coincidental fashion. and events such as the storm which has stymied Stannis, but those events had clear groundwork laid for them, so they don't come out of nowhere.  I've seen no indication that avalanches are a recognized threat, so the avalanche would come out of nowhere, and readers would likely feel cheated.  GRRM is a better writer than that.  

As for the rest of the scenario, I see no reason for Sansa to be smitten with Harry.  She is going to be very wary of charming, good-looking types after Joffrey, and his bed-hopping probably won't help.  I can, however, see a replay of the situation with Lyanna and Robert, where Harry falls for Sansa, who wants nothing to do with him.  

I do expect Sweetrobin and Harry to die before too long, and for Sansa to defeat, and possibly kill LF.  She is destined to be his downfall  As for her construction of the model of Winterfell, I have always felt that it symbolized her renewed attachment to her family and the North.   Sweetrobin's destruction of the castle might in some way represent a threat to that connection, but I'm undecided on exactly how.

[sweetsunray]

My biggest problem with this scenario is that it appears that you are suggesting a massive natural disaster will occur which sets the stage for the continuation of the Vale plot by removing one or more main characters, and a large part of the Vale Army, essentially decapitating the Vale's military and political structure.  A disaster which will come out of nowhere with no foreshadowing, at least as far as the average (and above average) reader is concerned.  This smacks of Deus ex Machina, which GRRM has mostly avoided, especially with regard to natural events.  He has characters meet up in highly coincidental fashion. and events such as the storm which has stymied Stannis, but those events had clear groundwork laid for them, so they don't come out of nowhere.  I've seen no indication that avalanches are a recognized threat, so the avalanche would come out of nowhere, and readers would likely feel cheated.  GRRM is a better writer than that.  

As for the rest of the scenario, I see no reason for Sansa to be smitten with Harry.  She is going to be very wary of charming, good-looking types after Joffrey, and his bed-hopping probably won't help.  I can, however, see a replay of the situation with Lyanna and Robert, where Harry falls for Sansa, who wants nothing to do with him.  

I do expect Sweetrobin and Harry to die before too long, and for Sansa to defeat, and possibly kill LF.  She is destined to be his downfall  As for her construction of the model of Winterfell, I have always felt that it symbolized her renewed attachment to her family and the North.   Sweetrobin's destruction of the castle might in some way represent a threat to that connection, but I'm undecided on exactly how.

That mountain, the Giant's Lance, has been featured and mentioned repetitively in ominous ways over and over and over and over. To say that the Giant's Lance in relation to a disaster has not been foreshadowed is wiping pragraph after paragraph of every Vale chapter away, both in Catelyn's chapters in aGoT and Sansa's. The foreshadowing is there, but George also distracted people from connecting the dots to the real drama happening.

"Sansa slaying a savage giant": everybody's focus is distracted to Sansa killing a giant and who that giant might be, thereby dismissing the very obvious scene of 2 giants destroying the dream of WF and the snow castle.

the giant doll knocking on the door: everybody's focus as a threat to Sansa is on a character identifiable as a giant, and completely missing out on SR having the size of a mountain in comparison to the snow castle and destroying it completely with his shaking fit.

Rockslides have been mentioned. Lysa's hubris of them being so safe and the mountain being their protector. Gates of the Moon the size of chldren's toys and people as tiny as ants that can be stepped on and crushed. All the snow build-up. Alyssa's Tears required to touch the Vale's soil. It all tells us that some disaster is going to come down the mountain. Waking giants from earth and shaking-fits, and thus earthquakes. Well, it either can be a rockslide or an avalanche. And because of the snow, an avalanche is way more fitting a symbol of winter than a rockslide.

You can't argue it's not foreshadowed. What you argue is that nobody has connected the dots yet, that you didn't consider it yet, and therefore it's dismissable. So, you didn't figure it out, and therefore it's a deus-ex-machina? Sorry, but that argument is hogwash.

As for Harry, believe what you will. I think it will be a postive experience and positive memory, because the doom scenario requires some positive highlight to make some balance for Sansa. And since she's been kissed by so many toads, for once she might have a thumbs-up kiss too. It's not as if George writes his women having positive sexual and romantic experiences with the "One and Only" alone. Daenerys sleeps with Daario, but nobody belives he's her "One and Only". Is that so bad? No, it isn't. It's part of her experience. Asha and Arianna? Same thing. They all had men they slept with and were smitten with, though not one of them is their "True Love", around the age of 14. They still meet and see those men, but are long over them.

Guess which age Sansa is approaching? She had a crush on Joffrey, like an 11-year old who dreams of the popular boy at elementary school, and where the boy asks her whether she wants to be his girl and they areknown to be an item, though they do nothing more than hold hands and there's nothing sexual about it. She had a fantasy crush on Loras, like a 12-year old dreaming of the pop-star she has a poster up in her room. Those are totally normal developments and experiences of any woman. Next up is the first kiss with a young man you want to kiss. That'll be Harry. The fact that he is introduced in a negative way by Myranda (and later himself) to Sansa, imo means the reverse will happen. She'll like him. In that sense, George is breaking the trope of "the first is your true love". No, the character indicated to find true love in her first love, is Arya with Cat's remark that Arya's already in love. Not Sansa. She might have already met her true love, but she'll love a number of boys and young men before realizing he's the one.  

[Schwarze Sonne]

Conclusion (tl;tr)

• Sansa either falls in the hands of the Burned Men, manages to flee to Yohn Royce or is taken by Shadrich. For several reasons, it seems most likely that she opts to flee with Shadrich, which is an ill fated choice, since he rides a red horse. What will happen then is not foreshadowed in her chapters, other than the knowledge that she will be on her knees by the time dawn has conquered the Long Night.

 

I am positive that Sansa will bet on the wrong horse again and fled with Shadrich. After all, another tourney you didn't mention, Ashford's foreshadowed who whould become Sansa's suitors (Baratheon, Tyrell, Lannister, Hardyng and Targaryen). We still have Targaryen left to be Sansa's suitor. The poor bastard is probably Aegon who would probably die from the sickness like Valarr. And Sansa will end up unmarried until the dawn comes.

[Fearodh]

Wooow... great stuff I must say. So much evidence, so well laid out. I am impressed!

Actually I would personally hate those events. I really had the hope of Sansa working in a team with LF to gain control of the Vale completely and using the army for the North. Also, I am one of the few fans of brilliant LF. I really hope your excellent analysis is at least wrong here, and that he does not end up dead. If everyone is so sure Sansa will be his downfall, then maybe it won't happen I gotta say it also increases my regard for GRRM. There are so many layers like e.g. the Norse references, we really need smart people like you to uncover how George ties it all together.

It was the first essay I read from you. Seems I must take the time to delve into the others soon... Good that tWoW will not appear for some time then

 

[sweetsunray]

I am positive that Sansa will bet on the wrong horse again and fled with Shadrich. After all, another tourney you didn't mention, Ashford's foreshadowed who whould become Sansa's suitors (Baratheon, Tyrell, Lannister, Hardyng and Targaryen). We still have Targaryen left to be Sansa's suitor. The poor bastard is probably Aegon who would probably die from the sickness like Valarr. And Sansa will end up unmarried until the dawn comes.

Yes, I left out the Ashford tourney theory, as well as the parallel between the description of the Eyrie and Whitewalls..It's long enough as it is; I've restricted myself to aSoIaF foreshadowing and to POV chapters that have a direct tie to Sansa. However, the Targaryen suitor in the Ashford list does not exclude the Burned Men from stealing Sansa: they seem to have worshipped a dragonrider once. But yes, I think she'll follow Shadrich most likely, to end up in Varys' schemes.  

[sweetsunray]

Wooow... great stuff I must say. So much evidence, so well laid out. I am impressed!

Actually I would personally hate those events. I really had the hope of Sansa working in a team with LF to gain control of the Vale completely and using the army for the North. Also, I am one of the few fans of brilliant LF. I really hope your excellent analysis is at least wrong here, and that he does not end up dead. If everyone is so sure Sansa will be his downfall, then maybe it won't happen I gotta say it also increases my regard for GRRM. There are so many layers like e.g. the Norse references, we really need smart people like you to uncover how George ties it all together.

It was the first essay I read from you. Seems I must take the time to delve into the others soon... Good that tWoW will not appear for some time then

 

I completely understand why you would hate those events. It is so refreshing to read about an empowered Sansa who seems to come in her own more and more, even if it is with LF.

For me LF is a total goner, but it has less to do with Sansa and this essay, but everything to do with Ned's damnation of a list of people while he's in the dungeons. The two chthonic cycle essays explain this. But basically it comes down to this: in the crypt scene between Ned and Robert some underworld symbolic stuff happens that makes clear that the Underworld is the home of the Starks, their place, their source of strength. Lyanna is featured as a Queen of the Underworld almost in the crypts, because of her exceptional statue. And a lot of the symbols regarding Lyanna match that of the Greek Persephone (Demeter's daughter who gets abducted by Hades, and the land going hungry as Demeter in her anger orders or neglects her duties, and basically an origin myth of the seasons)... well they all match and more: false spring, bat, torches, fastest horse (her brother), a lightbringer son, flowers, wreaths of flowers, crowned as Queen of the Underworld, the type of haunted dreams Ned has, etc. Anyhow, the dungeons are described as an underworld too. Ned's first chapter is in the crypts. Ned's last chapter is in the dungeons. And instead of a visitor he becomes like one of the statues of the Kings of Winter down in the dungeons. He can't see anything in the darkness, no time measurements, he has to sit still as a statue because of his leg, even the sense of smell disappears. He tries to talk with the jailor, but that person only responds in grunst and kicks - so no communication with the living. And in this practical dead state, this statue state, he utters a damnation: Cersei, Jaime, Pycelle, Renly, Varys, LF, and Selmy. And after that he damns himself thrice. After this damnation he starts to have visions of the damned or dead visiting him - Cersei, young Robert (aka Renly), and LF behind Renly's mask, and finally Varys in person but in such a disguise that Ned has to ask him whether he's really there and touches him to verify he's not just going mad. We know from Maggy the Frog's prophecy that Cersei is fated to die. Jaime has his doom dream on the weirwood stub. Pycelle and Renly are dead. For LF we have the GoHH's words and the pinned giant's head on a stake. Selmy in Mereen doesn't look all that comfortable either. Varys will probably be one of the last to go. Anyway, once you realize that Ned damns these people from an underworld while he's as close a King of Winter statue he can be, that damnation becomes very very powerful.