Mance is Rhaegar, MR=RT

[Aegon VII]

Hello,

This thread is to discuss the theory that Rhaegar did not die on the trident and instead went to the wall and assumed the identity of Mance Rayder. This is for people who have done considerable research on the subject and know the evidence for and against. I am interested to hear what the critical pieces of information are in your reasoning for or against this theory.

In my research of the subject I have found that most discussions about MR=RT devolve into a bunch of people dismissing the theory and repeating the same few arguments e.g., GRRM said Rhaegar was burned, Mance had his own backstory and grew up on the wall, and that GRRM simply wouldn't write it like this. None of those are that good of arguments and I'd be happy to discuss why, I just hope this thread doesn't get overrun with naysayers who aren't contributing to the conversation. 

That being said I will start with a few of the things that lead me to believe that MR=RT is a valid theory. 

 

Rhaegar being obsessed with prophecy, and declaring that he is destined to become a warrior. Just having kids and dying in battle does not live up to that destiny, uniting the realms of men does.

Mances cloak is a strange story unless the cloak is a link to his targ past, especially if he is under a glamour and the cloak is part of it.

Mance letting Jon live. I don't think Mance would be fooled by jons false desertion. Starks are all about honor, Mance knew what Jon was doing the whole time yet let him join wildlings to train and learn.

robert beating Mance at the trident, I know it's possible, I just don't see it happening. especially given the presence of rubies.

the parallel between Jon and Aemon steel song, as well as the importance of Aemon in general.

 the references to bael the bard with rhaegar stealing the north mans daughter.   

 

i think the biggest evidence comes from how Mance conducts himself and his accomplishments. If Mance actually grew up on the wall and was some random brothers bastard, what are the odds that he would have the worldly knowledge he has, the songs he sings, the prophecy  he's aware of. Furthermore, not only is he courteous and knowledgable, he's also the greatest fighter north of the wall. So some random bastard on the wall achieves all the traits of a true king and unites a kingdom, not likely. It's obvious there's more to Mance than meets the eye, this theory fits nicely with that.

 TL;DR a thread to discuss MR=RT, and what pieces of evidence you base your conclusion on. 

[Aegon VII]

I will note, I am new to the forums, and was trying to find the appropriate place to post this. I apologize if the re-read project was the incorrect place!

[Lord Wraith]

First welcome to the forum. I have no strong opinion on the theory but if your interested in it I have a link that might help.

http://manceisrhaegar.blogspot.com/

[princess_snow]

@ Lord Wraith, thankyou for providing that link. Very interesting read but Im tired and need to think on it. 

[Aegon VII]

First welcome to the forum. I have no strong opinion on the theory but if your interested in it I have a link that might help.

http://manceisrhaegar.blogspot.com

Thank you Wraith! I look forward to being on the forum, it's consumed half my free time for a while now, might as well start posting. I appreciate the link as well. I am familiar with the site and it is one of the better analyses I have found. Also, it is what first directed me to the winterfell huis clos which is just amazing. 

[Light a wight tonight]

I can't see why some people need Mace to be Rhaegar. It's like an obsession. Mance may well have some backstory, descent from Bael the Bard, or connection the Starks (he seems to have an affinity for Winterfell), but why Rhaegar? Or why would Rhaegar be interested in the North? The previous Winter was before the Valyrian Freehold was established, much less the Conquest, so the Targs would have nothing to do with any prophecies to do with a new Winter.

Plus, the arguments given that Mance and Rhaegar are separate characters are much stronger than any supporting R=M. You aren't convinced by the Watch's having raised Mance at the Wall from a Wildling foundling while Rhaegar grew up in the South? Better than maybe the Rhae-man didn't die at the Trident, maybe someone was glamoured somehow by someone and was killed and cremated in Rhaegar's place. The whole idea is based on that sort of thing. Too many maybes and what-ifs.

[AerionBrightflameII]

No. Im trying to be cordial. But No.

[Aegon VII]

I can't see why some people need Mace to be Rhaegar. It's like an obsession.

I think of myself as still pretty neutral but I will be defending it in this thread. I will say, people being obsessed with a theory doesn't make it any less valid, if anything it makes me want to examine it even more so to make sure there's not something I'm overlooking that the other people aren't.

Mance may well have some backstory, descent from Bael the Bard, or connection the Starks (he seems to have an affinity for Winterfell), but why Rhaegar?

Mance having another backstory would explain a lot of the things that MR=RT explains as well, but I see it less likely. If not Rhaegar, I could see Mance being Bloodravens or Lord Commander Qorgyles bastard. Neither scenarios are hinted at much in the books, certainly less so than MR=RT. And if he's not descended from one of those two, there's even less textual support for Mance's backstory. Which means we would be introduced into a pretty big plot twist without any foreshadowing if it was any backstory other than him being Rhaegar.

Also, while Mance does have an affinity for Winterfell, it seems that he is mostly interested in Jon Snow, and the crypts. Both of these are better explained by Targ blood than Stark. Also, Mance has possible ties to the Targs as well through the story of his cloak, implied affiliation with Bloodraven, and focus on prophecy.

 

 

Or why would Rhaegar be interested in the North?

Prophecy. We see Rhaegar was obsessed with books until emerging one day he must be a warrior. I believe Rheagar believed he was going to be tptwp, but then later realized that it would be his son Jon, as Jon is "a song of ice and fire" as said in Dany's vision ( Baby Jon could have been going by the name of Aegon in vision but that's a topic for another thread) Most of asoiaf centers around the dichotomy between Ice and Fire. I believe the savior is the balance of these two forces, found in Jon Snow. If Rhaegar believed this as well, it makes sense that faked his own death to focus on more important things, mainly readying the north for the others coming. If he was still alive the war in westeros would rage on and the realm would bleed. If he staged his death, he could use that time to better prepare the realm

 

 

The previous Winter was before the Valyrian Freehold was established, much less the Conquest, so the Targs would have nothing to do with any prophecies to do with a new Winter.

I disagree. We already see Bloodraven totally going against this statement. Going back to the Dichotomy of ice and fire, dragons are the counter force to the others. A Targaryan, or mayhaps three, will be integral to defeating them. Also, since the others are the major impending threat to the realm, it seems anyone obsessed with prophecy would be obsessed with stopping them.

Plus, the arguments given that Mance and Rhaegar are separate characters are much stronger than any supporting R=M.

 

 

You aren't convinced by the Watch's having raised Mance at the Wall from a Wildling foundling while Rhaegar grew up in the South?

No I am not. Mance has far too much fighting skill, charisma, worldly knowledge and knowledge of prophecies to support this. It's certainly possible but I don't see it likely. It being unlikely supports the notion that it is not the true story.

 

Better than maybe the Rhae-man didn't die at the Trident, maybe someone was glamoured somehow by someone and was killed and cremated in Rhaegar's place. The whole idea is based on that sort of thing. Too many maybes and what-ifs.

 

That does seem like a lot of maybes and what ifs but each step of the way does have textual evidence to support it as well as supports a larger theory. Rhaegar is shown to have used ruby magic at the harrenhal tourney, or at least hinted at. Rhaegar's death at the trident is always described with a focus on rubies, which are heavily associated with deception in the series. So if not used for deception here, why are they focused on? There not being any textual details about his funeral also supports the idea that it never happened.

So we have a literary cue that is almost exclusively used to show deception heavily focused on in the death story of one character, and another character that has an origin story that does not match the character he is now. We also see these characters have an incredible amount of similarities and have parallel plot lines in many regards. I feel this is too much evidence to not to look into alternative explanations. Upon looking into these other explanations, I find Mance being Rhaegar the most likely.

 

 

 

[Aegon VII]

No. Im trying to be cordial. But No.

so yes?

[Light a wight tonight]

 

I disagree. We already see Bloodraven totally going against this statement. Going back to the Dichotomy of ice and fire, dragons are the counter force to the others. A Targaryan, or mayhaps three, will be integral to defeating them. Also, since the others are the major impending threat to the realm, it seems anyone obsessed with prophecy would be obsessed with stopping them.

 

 

Bloodraven wasn't full-blooded Valyrian/Targaryen. He was of First Men blood through his mother, whence comes his warging ability. Additionally he was sent to the Wall. He didn't go to the North willingly.

It's not definite that Ice and Fire refers to Others versus dragons. The Dance of Dragons was about the conflict between Targ factions,not about literal dragons. Ice and Fire could as easily be the North (Starks) versus the Targs or it could be Jon Snow and his Targ/Stark blood.

[AerionBrightflameII]

Im sorry but there is just no proof what so ever.

Welcome to the forums by the way!!

[Aegon VII]

Bloodraven wasn't full-blooded Valyrian/Targaryen. He was of First Men blood through his mother, whence comes his warging ability.

Excellent point, I forgot about his moms side. Even so, it is a person who's half targ who did a lot for targs in his youth. Now in his old age he seems to be a major player in the mystical side of the series that also has to do with prophecy, others, dragons, etc.

Additionally he was sent to the Wall. He didn't go to the North willingly.

I believe there's a very good chance he went there willingly, acrid icing his honor for the realm, knowing he'd eventually go north of the wall. He goes with hundreds of his Ravens teeth and became lc in what I would imagine was a short time (don't have that timeline on hand). At a certain point, BR knew he had to go north and melt into the tree, the question is, did he figure this out when he was at the wall, or did he know he'd be called north before that while still in the realm. The latter would support Rhaegar similarly finding the need to go north.

It's not definite that Ice and Fire refers to Others versus dragons.

Not refer to them exclusively but I think there's evidence to support the others being the embodiment of ice and dragons being the embodiment of fire. It gets cold where the others go, they're from the land of always winter and they have ice armor and weapons. Dragons are often referred to as fire made flesh.

 The Dance of Dragons was about the conflict between Targ factions,not about literal dragons.

 

This is is true but I view the dance of dragons as still "inside the realm" so to speak. Men vs men squabbling over territory.  It is not on the mystical level like the the aa/tptwp, last hero prophecies that involve the two opposite elements in their extremes. I believe that both rhaegar and BR abandoned their positions "inside the realm" to focus on the bigger threat, the others.

Ice and Fire could as easily be the North (Starks) versus the Targs or it could be Jon Snow and his Targ/Stark blood.

I think the beauty of grrm is that he interweaves themes so seamlessly. Ice and fire can be stark/targ, others/dragons, stoich/passionate, honor/love, stasis/change, etc.. since the series is titled, asoiaf, I believe the marrying of these two thing will be integral to the mystical plot lines and prophecies. Targs taking big steps to prepare for this, like BR and RT might have done by going north of the wall, would fit into the clashing of these two worlds, ice and fire. So while I agree Jon is the true embodiment of ice and fire, I can see more "fire" elements than just him being involved in whatever the prophecies manifest into, especially given we have two Targs already interested/involved in prophecy, BR and RT.

 

 

[Beautiful Bloody Sword]

On December 5, 2015 at 11:54 PM, Light a wight tonight said:

Bloodraven wasn't full-blooded Valyrian/Targaryen. He was of First Men blood through his mother, whence comes his warging ability. Additionally he was sent to the Wall. He didn't go to the North willingly.

It's not definite that Ice and Fire refers to Others versus dragons. The Dance of Dragons was about the conflict between Targ factions,not about literal dragons. Ice and Fire could as easily be the North (Starks) versus the Targs or it could be Jon Snow and his Targ/Stark blood.

Do you not believe it possible that he did go to the wall on purpose, and then to the cave on purpose, and into the weirwood and Bran's dreams on purpose?

[Light a wight tonight]

5 hours ago, Beautiful Bloody Sword said:

Do you not believe it possible that he did go to the wall on purpose, and then to the cave on purpose, and into the weirwood and Bran's dreams on purpose?

Many things are possible. Fewer have any degree of likelihood. 

[Beautiful Bloody Sword]

7 hours ago, Light a wight tonight said:

Many things are possible. Fewer have any degree of likelihood. 

But all those things did happen. I'm just attributing some self determination on the part of BR in that course of events. 

[Aegon VII]

18 hours ago, Beautiful Bloody Sword said:

Do you not believe it possible that he did go to the wall on purpose, and then to the cave on purpose, and into the weirwood and Bran's dreams on purpose?

I believe it more than likely that BR planned to get sent to the wall. He sacrificed himself for the good of the realm. He also went to the wall with like a hundred of his archers, which would support him having planned it. We know now that BR is intertwined with the prophetic/mystical part of the story. So either he went to the wall by coincidence, and then was pulled into the mystical part of the story once on the wall. Or, he was pulled into the prophecy/mystical aspect whilst still in the realm, and his every action since has been to put him where he is now. We know that Rhaegar found in his studies that he was to be a warrior, almost like he found a prophecy and thought he needed to fulfill it. I think it's probable that Bloodraven found similar material, realized that he needed to get involved, and started making moves to (hopefully) save the realm. Same as Rhaegar.

[Aegon VII]

13 hours ago, Light a wight tonight said:

Many things are possible. Fewer have any degree of likelihood. 

I'll assume that you do not believe it likely that BR did all these things on purpose. I started touching on this in my last post. But I'll try to be more clear here. I mentioned in my last post the mystical/prophetic part of the story. I know this is terrible language for me to use but I'm struggling with the verbiage. I believe when GRRM gave his first draft to his editors he described the story as three overlaying themes. First is Westeros, all the different kingdoms fighting for control of the iron throne, second is Dany wanting to return home and conquer westeros, and third is the impending threat of the others and the fight for all mankind. It is this third aspect that I am referring to by mystical/ prophetic. I draw an inherent connection between magic, the others, the prophecies, the different horns, the themes of ice and fire, etc. I will refer to this as the mystical aspect of the story moving forward.

I believe Bloodraven is a major player in the mystical aspect of the story. He brought bran north of the wall, he's living with the CotF and he's known to use glamours (Dunk n Egg). Furthermore, when you examine all the instances that one eyed creatures have been involved in crucial scenes e.g. the boar that killed Robert, its easy to think that BR was warging the creature at the time. If this were the case, than he has been bending the realm to his will for years. If it's not, we at least know he's guiding Bran, which shows he does have a higher purpose, that is related to the mystical aspect of the books. We still don't know what this purpose or goal is, but hopefully it is to save the realm.

We've now established that Bloodraven is a player in the mystical aspect of the book. So now the question is when did he first start to have this purpose. It could be that he went to the wall by happenstance and that he got his purpose while either LC of the NW or after deserting. This is certainly possible, I just don't see any evidence to support it. All of his actions since before he joined the NW have been the exact right moves to put him where he is now. So why would we think that he realized this higher purpose after he joined the NW, rather than before?

[Light a wight tonight]

On 2/13/2016 at 11:33 AM, Beautiful Bloody Sword said:

But all those things did happen. I'm just attributing some self determination on the part of BR in that course of events. 

That he did the things in indisputable. The rest is speculation.

[Aedam Targaryen]

On December 1, 2015 at 6:53 PM, Aegon VII said:

Rhaegar being obsessed with prophecy, and declaring that he is destined to become a warrior. Just having kids and dying in battle does not live up to that destiny, uniting the realms of men does.

................................................

i think the biggest evidence comes from how Mance conducts himself and his accomplishments. If Mance actually grew up on the wall and was some random brothers bastard, what are the odds that he would have the worldly knowledge he has, the songs he sings, the prophecy  he's aware of. Furthermore, not only is he courteous and knowledgable, he's also the greatest fighter north of the wall. So some random bastard on the wall achieves all the traits of a true king and unites a kingdom, not likely. It's obvious there's more to Mance than meets the eye, this theory fits nicely with that.

First of all, I'd love it if M=R, but I just don't think that's the case. The points you made that I listed above just don't make sense to me. Yes just having kids and dying in battle doesn't live up to any prophesies, but I'm certain he didn't die in battle on purpose. If he had won that battle, his children would have likely become kings... you'd be in a much more powerful position to battle the Others from the Iron Throne than you would if you went north with the hopes of someday becoming king after starting from scratch with a new identity in a much more uncertain and ununited kingdom. 

Second, I don't see how being raised at the wall would prevent him from becoming worldly knowledgable. I'd argue that the wall is the best place to be raised to have that knowledge. The wall is more of a melting pot than any other place in Westeros. Growing up at the wall you are surrounded by people from every region and of every social class. You'd be privy to songs and stories from every corner of Westeros. The only way to better gain that knowledge would be by traveling the world yourself (which he also did iirc), but living at the wall would be the next best way to do it. 

[Beautiful Bloody Sword]

On March 10, 2016 at 10:38 AM, Aedam Targaryen said:

First of all, I'd love it if M=R, but I just don't think that's the case. The points you made that I listed above just don't make sense to me. Yes just having kids and dying in battle doesn't live up to any prophesies, but I'm certain he didn't die in battle on purpose. If he had won that battle, his children would have likely become kings... you'd be in a much more powerful position to battle the Others from the Iron Throne than you would if you went north with the hopes of someday becoming king after starting from scratch with a new identity in a much more uncertain and ununited kingdom. 

Second, I don't see how being raised at the wall would prevent him from becoming worldly knowledgable. I'd argue that the wall is the best place to be raised to have that knowledge. The wall is more of a melting pot than any other place in Westeros. Growing up at the wall you are surrounded by people from every region and of every social class. You'd be privy to songs and stories from every corner of Westeros. The only way to better gain that knowledge would be by traveling the world yourself (which he also did iirc), but living at the wall would be the next best way to do it. 

No, you wouldn't be in a better position sitting the Iron Throne. The nobles and common folk alike would either think you're mad, or go into panic. The Wildings would not follow a crown or a name, but the man. So having those accreditations would be quite ineffectual in organizing, unifying, and mobilizing them in order to get them south of the Wall in order to not fill the ranks of the wights and the army of the dead but to fight for the living, on the safer side of the Wall. Addition by subtraction, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

 

I'm certain that if you were a noticeable figure that had ulterior plans to go beyond the Wall in order to prepare for something that we the readers know is the true threat, you would plan for that person and their name to die in battle. There are only a few singers ever mentioned on the Wall and they seem to get sent to recruit. Unless Maester Aemon gave Mance his education, which is never stated, he'd be surrounded by a lot of different people, but a lot of different uncultured people, not very academic bunch. Mance speaks and sings in the Old Tongue, no one else on the Wall has been attributed that ability save a Giant and a Wilding, Wun Wun and Leathers, respectively. Some Wildings seem to grasp it a bit, but not so well to speak it or sing or compose songs in it.