Friends in the Reach = Randel Tarley

[Stannis th3 Mannis]

I first had the  idea when the concil is discussing the matter and everytime somine claims its Jon Connington. Randel Tarley jumps into say IF IT IS CONNINGTON he is trying to cover/ant uncertainty as much as he can and much how Jon Con said he wanted to do, then add the fact of who Tarly is he is a. Awsone hard ass battle comander who givin the choice im sure whould side with/ and have alot more respect for somone like Connington over the oaf Mace Tyrell who has repeatedly tried to take credit for Tarleys military accomplishments. Theres a few morethings i cant remember atm, but what do u guys think?

Btwin  my phone screen is messed up and typing is very difficult sorry for the mistakes t

[Good Guy Garlan]

It's possible, but I personally lean more towards the Merryweathers being the Friends. I think there are hints that they're working for Varys, and Varys in turn must have people in the ranks of the Golden Company.

[The Holy Goat]

Randyll Tarly is certainly one of the most likely to turn to Aegon's side, but I'm not so sure he's one of the friends in the Reach. The Reach is a huge place with many different houses, so there could be a number of houses Laswell Peake refers to when talking about their friends in the Reach.

Edit: Overall I'd say Tarly, Rowan, Peake and Merryweather are the most likely to support Aegon, with a shitload of other houses following them.

[Bironic]

Rowan, Peake and Merryweather are the most likely "friends". Rowan because he seems to be an honest Targ-loyalist and he is currently at Storm's End, Peake because the Peakes have history as Blackfyre rebels and there are Peakes amongst the GC, the Merryweathers have been in exile for some time and they have ties to Essos and perhaps to Illyrio/Varys or Mellario/Doran. Many Reach Houses have reasons to support FAegon: Tarly is certainly amongst them. Others could be Costayne, Florent, Fossoway, Hightower, Oakheart.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I can't see it myself. Tarly is Master of Law, with Kevan gone he is most likely the military leader of the Crowns armies. I doubt Aegon will be able to match Randyll's current position and influence within the Crown.

 

Joining Aegon would currently be a demotion for Lord Tarly, and the current Crown (Reach and Westerlands) seems far more powerful than Aegon currently does.

Same goes for Lord Rowan. I think it is fair to say that the current (Reach) Small Council, Lords Tyrell, Rowan, Tarly and Redwyne are going to have little reason to fight for a pretender.

[WSmith84]

I don't know. Mace seems to reward his more powerful bannermen pretty well for good service, including Tarly. I don't think that Aegon has much to offer him, and Tarly seems like a guy who is loyal to his liege lord.

[John Suburbs]

It's going to be awfully hard for JC to bring any Reach lords to his cause if he plans on siding with the Dornish as well.

I think he's going to offer Mace a deal: JC lets Mace "retake" Storm's End and then the GC will march undercover with Mace's army to liberate the Reach from the ironmen. Then Mace gets to march back to KL as the conquering here he's always imagined himself to be and, once inside, the GC dispatches any and all Lannisters in the city and proclaims fAegon as the new king with Margy as his queen.

 

 

[The Holy Goat]

I can't see it myself. Tarly is Master of Law, with Kevan gone he is most likely the military leader of the Crowns armies. I doubt Aegon will be able to match Randyll's current position and influence within the Crown.

 

Joining Aegon would currently be a demotion for Lord Tarly, and the current Crown (Reach and Westerlands) seems far more powerful than Aegon currently does.

Same goes for Lord Rowan. I think it is fair to say that the current (Reach) Small Council, Lords Tyrell, Rowan, Tarly and Redwyne are going to have little reason to fight for a pretender.

It's not all about personal ambition though. Mace is ambitious and would never turn away from Tommen's cause, because doing so would be a demotion. Can we say the same for Rowan and Tarly?

Rowan's forces outside Storm's End is likely defeated early in TWOW, since Aegon manages to take the castle. If Rowan doesn't die and fell into Aegon's hands, who's to say he won't turn to their side once the tide turns in the dragons favor? We also know that when Storm's End as fallen a Tyrell army marched south to face the Golden Company. I imagine it's led by Tarly, and I also believe the resulting battle will result in his defeat. Should Tarly be captured rather than killed, who's to say these victories on Aegon's part won't sway Rowan and Tarly to declare for them? Stranger things have certainly happened.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

The clothing Illyrio gives Tyrion is the colors of house Redwyn I believe, and he's got lots of nice Arbor wine, always assumed it was them... 

[The Holy Goat]

The clothing Illyrio gives Tyrion is the colors of house Redwyn I believe, and he's got lots of nice Arbor wine, always assumed it was them... 

Lord Paxter Redwyne is Mace Tyrell's closest friend though. And married to Mace's sister, who is also his cousin, since the Queen of Thorns (who was born a Redwyne) is Mace's mother and Paxter's aunt. There are very close bonds between the two. Amongst the large houses of the Reach, Houses Redwyne and HIghtower both have marriage ties to Highgarden, while Tarly, Rowan, Oakheart and Florent doesn't, as far as we know.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Rowan was said to look ready to gag when the Targ babes were mentioned, he definitely seems to be a likely candidate to me.  I also think people are giving the Reach way to much credit, they are getting stretched thin.  The Riverlands are ready to fall, the North is ready to fall, and the Stormlands have already fallen.  The Reach itself is under attack with the Arbor and shield isles taken.  If Garlans force near HighGarden is defeated trying to retake the shields, or if Oldtown is sacked, or if Tarly looses the Reach will be in a very tough spot, they really cannot afford a single loss.  So if they do take a loss, and Garlans is the most likely to me, a lot of people may be ready to jump ship.

[Bironic]

I agree with the above. But I think Garlan can only give battle when he has a fleet. I think the first who goes down is Paxter Redwyne with his fleet. GRRM has been inspired by english history: Red Wyne Fleet could be the analogy to the Spanish Armada, Euron Greyjoy & Ironborn is something like Francis Drake and the english fleet. Once the Redwyne fleet is down, the entire west cost of the continent is pretty much in Euron's hands. Especially islands like the Arbor. When that happens and when JC succesfully captures Mathis Rowan and Storm's End, some of the aforementioned Lords might turn on the Tyrells.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

I agree with the above. But I think Garlan can only give battle when he has a fleet. I think the first who goes down is Paxter Redwyne with his fleet. GRRM has been inspired by english history: Red Wyne Fleet could be the analogy to the Spanish Armada, Euron Greyjoy & Ironborn is something like Francis Drake and the english fleet. Once the Redwyne fleet is down, the entire west cost of the continent is pretty much in Euron's hands. Especially islands like the Arbor. When that happens and when JC succesfully captures Mathis Rowan and Storm's End, some of the aforementioned Lords might turn on the Tyrells.

I don't know how well you know your history, but if westaros is standing in for England (and being invaded) you have the fleets reversed, also the weather played a little part in real life...

As for the Redwyns being allied to Highgarden, I don't think it is so clear as all that. Any house wants to end up on the winning side.

 

And I was remiss not to mention Hightower/Oldtown and the ever popular theory that they aren't locked in their tower but are undercover as Haldon and Lemore.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

I don't know how well you know your history, but if westaros is standing in for England (and being invaded) you have the fleets reversed, also the weather played a little part in real life...

As for the Redwyns being allied to Highgarden, I don't think it is so clear as all that. Any house wants to end up on the winning side.

 

And I was remiss not to mention Hightower/Oldtown and the ever popular theory that they aren't locked in their tower but are undercover as Haldon and Lemore.

 

A storm is a huge possibility, but who is it likely to benefit?  Euron with his magic, or the Redwyn fleet who have been sailing as fast as possible and as far as we know have no Worlocks who have already shown ability to read the wind.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

A storm is a huge possibility, but who is it likely to benefit?  Euron with his magic, or the Redwyn fleet who have been sailing as fast as possible and as far as we know have no Worlocks who have already shown ability to read the wind.

haha I was trying to steer away from historical comparisons, or at least avoid using them for predictive purposes

[Slowpoke Martin]

It's possible, but I personally lean more towards the Merryweathers being the Friends. I think there are hints that they're working for Varys, and Varys in turn must have people in the ranks of the Golden Company.

I honestly took that to mean that they have "military power" friends in the reach. The Merryweathers may be in Varys' pocket but it doesn't seem like having them as friends will inflate their numbers noticeably.

Now if it were to be say the Peakes, they have pretty decent numbers between the 2 families they have.

[Lord Varys]

Tarly is pretty unlikely as a covert Aegon/Golden Company ally. It is just not his style. More importantly, he has more to win and keep by fighting for King Tommen than by defecting to another pretender now that he has rise to fame and influence at court. Tarly is now Master of Laws, and could even rise higher if Mace would give up the office of Hand once he has made himself Lord Regent (which I don't believe).

He might change his mind eventually if Aegon triumphs in battle repeatedly, but until then he should be firmly in the camp of King Tommen. Tarly downplaying the threat of Aegon/Connington could either be part of the Tyrell blackmail of Ser Kevan (you do what we want or we most certainly won't bestir ourselves to put down those rebels) or part of the attempt to ensure that Aegon isn't taken seriously because it may not even be Jon Connington.

If the Golden Company has any friends in the Reach those would be houses with past Blackfyre affiliations or connections to Essos. This puts the Peakes (Lord Titus and his wife Margot Lannister) and the Merryweathers at the top of the list. The former are well-known former Blackfyre loyalists with an exiled branch, and the Merryweathers were exiled by Aerys II and especially young Orton would have had time to serve with the Golden Company during his exile - Jon Connington did, too, after all.

Rowan seems to be an honest Targaryen loyalist and a very likely candidate to join Aegon as soon as he is taken captive by the Golden Company - assuming he survives the attack - but there is no reason to believe that he is actually a friend of the Golden Company or other exiles.

The Tyrell position in the Reach is still very strong due to the excellent marriage policy of House Tyrell. They are very close to the Redwynes, and Mace Tyrell himself is married to Alerie Hightower, Lord Leyton's daughter. The Hightowers are very unlikely to ever openly rebel against the Tyrells, not only due to their marriage ties but also because Mace's uncles hold important positions in Oldtown (his uncle Gormon is a maester at the Citadel, filling in for an Archmaester right now, and was one of the best candidates for the next Grand Maester; his other uncle Ser Moryn Tyrell - the father of Lazy Leo - is the Lord Commander of the City Watch of Oldtown). The chances that the Hightowers would dare to oppose the Tyrells are zero, in my opinion.

But then, the chances that the Tyrells will stick to Tommen and the Lannisters until the very end aren't all that good. It may be that Margaery and/or Mace are doomed, but that still leaves Willas and Garlan who might be able to distance themselves from their father. Not to mention that we don't know if/when Loras will be able to lead an army again. They know how to abandon ship when things get messy. And the whole Reach is historically known to be a very peaceful region. There was very little to no infighting, and the chances that we see a Frey- or Bolton-like betrayal in the Reach not all that good. Even if some houses declare for Aegon, this doesn't necessarily mean that they will fight against the Tyrells. Remember, the Tyrells didn't participate in the Dance, either, yet were able to keep Highgarden anyway.

The Hightowers have too much at hand with the Ironborn to become involved in the politics of the Realm, and even if they wanted to - chances aren't good that they would proclaim for Aegon at a time when Sam and Alleras know about the importance of Daenerys.

[Bironic]

I don't know how well you know your history, but if westaros is standing in for England (and being invaded) you have the fleets reversed, also the weather played a little part in real life...

As for the Redwyns being allied to Highgarden, I don't think it is so clear as all that. Any house wants to end up on the winning side.

 

And I was remiss not to mention Hightower/Oldtown and the ever popular theory that they aren't locked in their tower but are undercover as Haldon and Lemore.

 

I know that it isn't the same scenario. Just like the Starks are not the Yorks, the Lannisters are not the same as the Lancasters, the Blackfyres are not Jacobites etc. ASOIAf is fiction not a documentary about english history. He takes inspiration from real world facts and changes them for his own purposes. The weather is exactly what I thought will be crucial in Redwynes downfall, since his fleet seems to be superior to what Euron has, and we have signs that Eurons mages are able to influence the weather. Aside from that autumn storms are very common, Saladhor saan lost several ships on his trip south, as did Victarion on his voyage to Meereen.

 

[Good Guy Garlan]

I honestly took that to mean that they have "military power" friends in the reach. The Merryweathers may be in Varys' pocket but it doesn't seem like having them as friends will inflate their numbers noticeably.

Now if it were to be say the Peakes, they have pretty decent numbers between the 2 families they have.

Maybe, but Longtable could still be a more than decent foothold or base of operations for the Company in the Reach. But yeah, the Peakes are also likely suspects because of their history and the fact that there actual Peakes (or people claiming to be Peakes) in the current ranks of the Company.