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R+L=J v.157


Lord Wraith

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

SFDanny,

we actually don't know when exactly Rhaegar changed his mind on his role of the promised prince. That is still a mystery to us. My best approximation is that he must have long buried the belief that he was the One, though, by the time of Aegon's conception. Else he wouldn't have interpreted the comet as a divine sign heralding the coming of the promised prince. If he had been firm in his belief by this point his mind wouldn't have connected the comet to Aegon but to himself (or he would have completely ignored it).

In that sense it is easily possible that Kevan's information/belief that Rhaegar wanted sons comes from the last years of Tywin's Handship during the early years of Rhaegar's marriage. He may already have believed that he wasn't the One but thought that he had to produce sons to bring forth the promised prince and his two companions if his parents couldn't do it.

LV, 

I'm not worried about which day of the week, or which hour of the day, Rhaegar changed his mind. What we know is that he did so after the appearance of a comet on the day of Aegon's conception. When he formulates his knew idea that his son is the Prince Who Was Promised could be anywhere between that event to Aegon's birth when he tells Elia who Aegon is going to be. Nine months or there about. But the important thing here is that he can't be sure his idea is right until Aegon is born, and that places his new idea to after Harrenhal and into the early months of 282 when the kidnapping occurs. Tywin quits his role as the King's Hand after Aerys announces Jaime's appointment to the Kingsguard, and event that takes place before his investiture into the Sworn Brotherhood on the first day of the Harrenhal tourney. Tywin leaves King's Landing and takes Cersei with him before the tourney, and so also before the birth of Aegon. So tell me how Kevan Lannister is privileged to the knowledge of what the Crown Prince is thinking after he leaves? That he really would have any insight into Rhaegar's thinking on prophecy is so ludicrous as to make one laugh, but it seems one has to concoct a special relationship between the two men and add in some way they kept in touch after the Lannisters left.

Perhaps you are right. Kevan could have been one of Rhaegar's best friends and have told him this secret in confidence, but there is absolutely nothing that suggests it is so. This seems much more like Kevan projecting his own values and wishes onto what could have made Rhaegar happy if he had married Cersei. After all every Lord of Westeros wants a long life, a beautiful wife, and many sons, don't they? Except Rhaegar finds a prophecy that he takes to relate to his children and the founders of Targaryen rule, Aegon, Visenya, and Rhaenys. A brother and two sisters. Not a Uncle, his brother, and his son. specifically a prophecy that relates Rhaegar's son and two others to those three historical figures - again, a brother an two sisters. This distinguishes Rhaegar's wishes from every other Lord of Westeros, and every other Targaryen before him. How does Kevan, bloody, Lannister know anything about any of this?

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As to the Targaryen sigil:

That is a tricky thing. Gyldayn tells us the long-established story of the genesis of the arms as symbolic depictions of the Conqueror and his sister-wives. But they, in turn, have nothing to do with the promised prince or those three dragon heads. Why should Rhaegar believe that the heraldic banner of his house should have anything to do with a much older prophecy? [Granted, he could have all sorts of strange esoteric beliefs but lets just assume that's not the case...]

We know the Targaryen version of the promised prince prophecy is much older and could thus, theoretically, have influenced Aegon's decision to conquer Westeros in the first place (that is entirely likely because the historians don't have a real answer for that).

If we assume that this is the case then there is also a pretty good chance that ancient prophecies talking about 'a dragon with three heads' or 'a three-headed dragon' symbolizing a Targaryen-blooded savior and his two companions may have influenced the genesis of the Targaryen banner. That would even be more likely if Aegon and his sisters had originally believed (and perhaps still during the time of the Conquest) that Aegon was the promised prince and Visenya and Rhaenys the other dragon heads.

Their arms would then be a nod to that belief, symbolizing them both as rulers of Westeros as well as in their roles as saviors.

And there is really a pretty subtle hint to all that in TWoIaF. Yandel tells us that Aegon's favorite place remained Dragonstone throughout his entire life, the place where he was born. I think it is pretty much consensus that most people in-universe believe that Dragonstone is indeed the place where the savior is born - at least that guy who is supposed to wake dragons from stone and stuff (which she has already done).

Back in the days of the Conqueror Targaryen women still played important roles and, most importantly, still were dragonriders (which most likely was also considered a very important criteria for being the promised prince and/or one of his companions). In Aemon's and Rhaegar's days it is unthinkable that women could play a role in all that.

And, as I've said above, it is still open to interpretation whether Rhaegar talks about his children or the three dragon heads when talking about having another child. He could just as easily believe he was only destined to bring forth two of the three dragon heads (Aegon and the third head) with his parents already producing the first one (either he himself or Viserys). There is no reason to drag Rhaenys into all this. It is very tempting to do this, and I did so myself in the past. I'd be more open to that idea/possibility if Aemon didn't sell us the idea of a promised princess as such a revolutionary idea, and if Rhaenys had also been mentioned or directly alluded to during the vision. But she is not. All we can say is that there must have been another 'first dragon head' aside from Aegon or else Rhaegar wouldn't have wanted to produce only the third head. But that's really it.

But aside from all that: Even if Aegon's birth convinced Rhaegar that he had to try to recreate Aegon and his sisters - he had already failed at that by not naming his first daughter Visenya. She was the elder, after all, and so Rhaegar's recreation of the founders of the dynasty would be defective from the start. Perhaps he thought he would create mirrored image of the siblings with the elder sister becoming the younger and vice versa, but that would just be baseless speculation, really.

I'm not sure there is a strong allusion to the Conqueror with the choice of the name Aegon. It is the most used male Targaryen name by far, and one of the standard names to give to your eldest son (Aenys I, Jaehaerys I, Viserys I, Prince Daemon, Viserys II, and Daemon Blackfyre all did that, and Prince Baelon and Maekar named at least one of their sons Aegon, as did Aerys II later on). Granted, the connection to the Conqueror is always there, of course, but all we know is that Rhaegar thought Aegon was the proper name for a future king - and he could just as well have thought about his great-grandfather when he said that.

Ignoring all that, my personal guess is that Visenya/Viserys was most likely not Rhaegar's choice of name. And in addition I might add that I don't really think we have as of yet enough information to make a good educated guess about what name Rhaegar and Lyanna would have chosen or actually did choose for their son.

It is almost impossible to say why Rhaegar believes what he does when we see him in Daenerys's vision. We just don't have enough information on the prophecy or prophecies that Rhaegar has read that influence his thought. We do know he relates the three headed dragon to the birth of his son, whom he thinks is the Prince Who Was Promised, and states in the context of Aegon's birth there must be one more. He can't mean one more Targaryen because there is already more than three living. He can't mean he needs another brother or sister because he has already included Aegon in the three. So, what set of existing Targaryen twos needs one more to make three - his children. It is the logical take away given the context of the conversation. The three headed dragon is historically Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters. To the degree that any of their descendants are also Targaryen they can claim the symbol as theirs, but it is still in reference to the descent from the Conquering trio. It is still a reference to Aegon and his sisters.That Rhaegar has reached the conclusion that his children will in some way recreate Aegon and his sisters seems self-evident if you believe the vision is real. Why he has reached that conclusion, other than the appearance of the comet when Aegon is conceived and that he has read ancient prophecies and heard others given by those he must think have mystical powers, I can't say. Given that state of the evidence, I think the conclusion that Rhaegar is looking for another child of his to complete the needed three heads of the dragon is on fairly solid ground.

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I agree rhaegar expected a daughter to be the trio. Grrm use dany to remind us: there are aegon and rhaenys, but where is visenya? Something like this. 

Why rhaegar named rhaenys I think it is because at that moment he thought himself is the prince, so rhaenys just a name towards his own and his mother rhaella and their foremother rheaenys. Or he just like this name. But after he got aegon, he suddenly felt he accidentally gave him daughter a name of that trio, this no doubt will make him more believe aegon is destined prince. 

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8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

stuff

I don't think the ground is solid there at all. It is a nice story, but in light of the fact that Rhaegar would be, in fact, blatantly wrong if he ever believed the promised princes two companions would have to be an older and a younger sister or that he needed siblings as his companions.

After all, we have very good reasons to assume that neither Daenerys nor Jon Snow have any Targaryen-blooded full siblings left. If Rhaegar's conclusions were based on pretty straightforward passages of the prophecy he read then one would assume that Dany as promised princess would be in need of a full sister and a full brother, and Jon Snow in the same role would need two full sisters. Both seems to be impossible right now.

If the Targaryen prophecy did in any way predict something correctly then it cannot have possibly predicted that there must be three Targaryen siblings as the three dragon heads (assuming that this phrase was even used in the prophecy which I'd concede).

Just projecting convenient ideas into Rhaegar's thought process doesn't resolve anything.

I'm not saying that Kevan had any special insight into Rhaegar's thinking after the birth of Aegon, but neither do we. 'There must be one more' doesn't mean 'There must be another daughter' or 'Aegon needs another sister'. It seems to be mean another dragon head since his next sentence is 'The dragon has three heads.' In light of the fact Aegon was male 'There must be one more.' could easily have meant 'There must be another male Targaryen' or 'I have to have another son.'

The truth is that Rhaenys is never mentioned in all that, and there is no hint that she figures into the entire question at all.

It is us who jump from 'The dragon has three heads' to the Targaryen banner and its origins, but that doesn't mean Rhaegar had the same line of thought. If he was talking prophecy there - and that seems to be the case - then there is no reason that this would have anything to do with Aegon and his sisters because as far as we know they aren't mentioned in the prophecy at all.

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On 09/02/2016 at 3:20 AM, Lord Varys said:

1. We learned from Kevan that Rhaegar wanted 'sons', plural,

So much bad over-analysis here.

Every man wants sons, a Targaryen most of all. Girls don't inherit, generally, remember. An heir and a spare, so sons plural. IMO that is all Kevan references, not any particular reference to how many sons or daughters, in what order or total number. Everything else infered from Kevan's comment is pure bullshit IMO.

 

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10 minutes ago, corbon said:

So much bad over-analysis here.

Every man wants sons, a Targaryen most of all. Girls don't inherit, generally, remember. An heir and a spare, so sons plural. IMO that is all Kevan references, not any particular reference to how many sons or daughters, in what order or total number. Everything else infered from Kevan's comment is pure bullshit IMO.

I can say the same about the idea that Rhaegar wanted to recreate the Conqueror and his sister-wives. That certainly is over-analysis, as is dragging Rhaenys into all this. All we know for a certainty is that Rhaegar thought there must be three special Targaryen descendants in connection to the promised prince, and that another one besides Aegon was already there when Aegon arrived. Who that other head was is unclear.

I for one aren't buying anyone's arguments based on the current sources claiming that they/we know who the other dragon head was. I'm not saying it was Viserys or Rhaegar himself. I just put that forth as an alternative to Rhaenys.

And that is based on my thinking that neither Aemon nor Rhaegar would have been as stupid as to completely exclude the possibility of the promised prince being female if they (or one of them) thought that his companions could or must be female. I mean, if two of the heroes can be girls why not the hero himself, too?

And from Aemon we know that the original prophecy - written either in Valyrian or some other foreign language - doesn't specify the gender of the promised prince. If it did Aemon couldn't possibly have attributed his later belief that the old interpretation about 'a promised prince' was an error that crept into the whole thing with the translation. The original most likely spoke of a scion of the Targaryen/dragonlord family or just about a dragon (which, in this context, would have meant the human scion of a dragonlord family, not an actual dragon).

Vice versa, if the original didn't specify the gender of the promised prince, then the original most likely also doesn't specify the gender of the companions, making it even more unlikely that Rhaegar would have found any basis in the prophecy to conclude that the other dragon heads must be female (or the full siblings of the promised prince).

Granted, perhaps Rhaegar wasn't basing any of his thoughts on the prophecy at the time of his vision. Perhaps he started to have his own baseless thoughts about historical or cosmic symmetry or something like that. But if that's the case we cannot possibly know. If we speculate about the whole thing then we have to believe that his thoughts and actions are very much rooted in the prophecies both Aemon and Marwyn are familiar with (and Aerys/Rhaella, Jaehaerys II, and other Targaryens, too) which was expanded by the Ghost of High Heart with her prophecy.

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15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I can say the same about the idea that Rhaegar wanted to recreate the Conqueror and his sister-wives. That certainly is over-analysis, as is dragging Rhaenys into all this.

Thats not even close to a reasonable comparison. On the one hand we have Kevan clearly making a generalist remark, which is silly-analyzed into telling us in depth about Rhaegar's plans (as if Kevan was one of Rhaegar's intimates and understood his plans :rolleyes: ), and on the other hand we have a clear and explicit statement from Rhaegar that the dragon has two heads and there must be one more. Its speculative territory in some ways to try and understand what Rhaegar's remarks mean, but its not taking them entirely out of context and creating total bullshit out of them to suggest that quite possibly Rhaegar is thinking of re-creating the origin three heads of the conquest - especially when Rhaegar has just categorically stated that his son is the PwwP and named him Aegon.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I for one aren't buying anyone's arguments based on the current sources claiming that they/we know who the other dragon head was. I'm not saying it was Viserys or Rhaegar himself. I just put that forth as an alternative to Rhaenys.

I'm listening, but not buying either, yet. For me those answers go too deep in speculative territory, even if they are reasonable speculations with textual support (unlike the deep interpretations of Kevan's remark).

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And that is based on my thinking that neither Aemon nor Rhaegar would have been as stupid as to completely exclude the possibility of the promised prince being female if they (or one of them) thought that his companions could or must be female. I mean, if two of the heroes can be girls why not the hero himself, too?

"No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And from Aemon we know that the original prophecy - written either in Valyrian or some other foreign language - doesn't specify the gender of the promised prince. If it did Aemon couldn't possibly have attributed his later belief that the old interpretation about 'a promised prince' was an error that crept into the whole thing with the translation.

Funny how he explicitly says that s what happened. Couldn't possibly though...

 

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4 minutes ago, corbon said:

Thats not even close to a reasonable comparison. On the one hand we have Kevan clearly making a generalist remark, which is silly-analyzed into telling us in depth about Rhaegar's plans (as if Kevan was one of Rhaegar's intimates and understood his plans :rolleyes: ), and on the other hand we have a clear and explicit statement from Rhaegar that the dragon has two heads and there must be one more. Its speculative territory in some ways to try and understand what Rhaegar's remarks mean, but its not taking them entirely out of context and creating total bullshit out of them to suggest that quite possibly Rhaegar is thinking of re-creating the origin three heads of the conquest - especially when Rhaegar has just categorically stated that his son is the PwwP and named him Aegon.

I'm listening, but not buying either, yet. For me those answers go too deep in speculative territory, even if they are reasonable speculations with textual support (unlike the deep interpretations of Kevan's remark).

"No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years.

Funny how he explicitly says that s what happened. Couldn't possibly though...

Well, Tywin would have had friends at court even after he left it (Pycelle foremost amongst them), and Kevan was Tywin's closest confidant. He certainly would have discussed his plans for Rhaegar and Cersei with him.

Granted, both Cersei and Kevan could simply infer or assume that Rhaegar wanted sons because he was a man and the heir of a dynasty that desperately needed sons. But then, Rhaegar could also have publicly announced repeatedly that he wanted sons. After all, impregnating Elia immediately after her recovery certainly is a pretty big hint that he wasn't exactly allowing her to get away with just giving him a daughter. He wanted (a) son(s).

Until there is no good indication as to why George should want to feed us wrong information via both Kevan and Cersei on this issue I'll be inclined to seriously consider this as Rhaegar's actual wishes.

And regardless your opinion on Kevan's (or Cersei's) insight or knowledge the fact that there are two people who believe that Rhaegar wanted sons makes it more likely that this was actually the case then if no character had ever said something like that about Rhaegar.

Aemon never discusses any other dragon heads. And as long as we don't know anything about their importance in relation to the prophecy or the purpose of the entire prophecy it is difficult to comment on all that. But if Rhaegar took another wife against custom and common sense then he at least must have believed that the third dragon head was (about as) important for the entire thing (as the promised prince) unless he wasn't just mad for love. And, you know, we don't know if Aemon ever read or knew the original of the prophecy. Most likely he did, but he apparently followed the common translation of 'prince'.

The problem is that without the actual prophecy and its (various) translation we cannot even say if other dragon heads are mentioned therein and/or if they, in order to distinguish them from the promised prince, were prophesied to be female. Could be. But then, that would be a very odd thing to expect since the original text would have to have to have been open to translate whatever word was used there for 'promised prince' as either male or female for Aemon's words to make sense. But if the promised prince's gender isn't determined as either male or female in the original then there is little reason to assume that the gender of the other dragon heads is identified as female or male.

Which means whatever could be true for the promised prince could also be true for the other dragon heads. The gender is not determined.

And if the promised prince prophecy of the Targaryens was only recently rediscovered and retranslated (say, by Aerys I) then the translator may have fallen victim to established 'Targaryen history facts' like the three-headed dragon banner and the importance of Aegon and his sister-wives as founders of the dynasty despite the fact that neither of that has anything to do with the topic at hand. The prophecy was made in the days long before Aegon and it refers to people living long after the time of Aegon.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And regardless your opinion on Kevan's (or Cersei's) insight or knowledge the fact that there are two people who believe that Rhaegar wanted sons makes it more likely that this was actually the case then if no character had ever said something like that about Rhaegar.

I'm not arguing that Rhaegar didn't want sons.
I'm pointing out the stupidity of using a generalist remark that is generally true about pretty much every man and especially true about a man in Rhaegar's position, made by someone far from Rhaegar's inner circle to boot, as a pointer for Rhaegar's specific plans and expectations in a specific context.
You are just arguing deeper into the hole the more you try to point out how it could fit. It does fit, because its a generalist remark that is especially applicable to Rhaegar's position. That still doesn't mean it informs us about his specific ideas and plans in a specific context.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aemon never discusses any other dragon heads. And as long as we don't know anything about their importance in relation to the prophecy or the purpose of the entire prophecy it is difficult to comment on all that. But if Rhaegar took another wife against custom and common sense then he at least must have believed that the third dragon head was (about as) important for the entire thing (as the promised prince) unless he wasn't just mad for love. And, you know, we don't know if Aemon ever read or knew the original of the prophecy. Most likely he did, but he apparently followed the common translation of 'prince'.

The problem is that without the actual prophecy and its (various) translation we cannot even say if other dragon heads are mentioned therein and/or if they, in order to distinguish them from the promised prince, were prophesied to be female. Could be. But then, that would be a very odd thing to expect since the original text would have to have to have been open to translate whatever word was used there for 'promised prince' as either male or female for Aemon's words to make sense. But if the promised prince's gender isn't determined as either male or female in the original then there is little reason to assume that the gender of the other dragon heads is identified as female or male.

Which means whatever could be true for the promised prince could also be true for the other dragon heads. The gender is not determined.

And if the promised prince prophecy of the Targaryens was only recently rediscovered and retranslated (say, by Aerys I) then the translator may have fallen victim to established 'Targaryen history facts' like the three-headed dragon banner and the importance of Aegon and his sister-wives as founders of the dynasty despite the fact that neither of that has anything to do with the topic at hand. The prophecy was made in the days long before Aegon and it refers to people living long after the time of Aegon.

blah blah blah blah "I made a bunch of statements about what I imagine character's thoughts and their thought processes were that are directly and explicitly opposed to those character's statements in the text but I'm gonna keep arguing around it in circles anyway..."

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On February 11, 2016 at 0:00 AM, Lord Varys said:

I don't think the ground is solid there at all. It is a nice story, but in light of the fact that Rhaegar would be, in fact, blatantly wrong if he ever believed the promised princes two companions would have to be an older and a younger sister or that he needed siblings as his companions.

After all, we have very good reasons to assume that neither Daenerys nor Jon Snow have any Targaryen-blooded full siblings left. If Rhaegar's conclusions were based on pretty straightforward passages of the prophecy he read then one would assume that Dany as promised princess would be in need of a full sister and a full brother, and Jon Snow in the same role would need two full sisters. Both seems to be impossible right now.

First, let's be very clear, no one is saying Rhaegar was right. He was plainly wrong in his interpretation of the prophecy. What we are looking at, however, is not whether the Crown Prince was right or wrong, but what was his belief at different times on the meaning of the prophecy, and how that effected his actions.

On February 11, 2016 at 0:00 AM, Lord Varys said:

If the Targaryen prophecy did in any way predict something correctly then it cannot have possibly predicted that there must be three Targaryen siblings as the three dragon heads (assuming that this phrase was even used in the prophecy which I'd concede).

Just projecting convenient ideas into Rhaegar's thought process doesn't resolve anything.

I'm not saying that Kevan had any special insight into Rhaegar's thinking after the birth of Aegon, but neither do we. 'There must be one more' doesn't mean 'There must be another daughter' or 'Aegon needs another sister'. It seems to be mean another dragon head since his next sentence is 'The dragon has three heads.' In light of the fact Aegon was male 'There must be one more.' could easily have meant 'There must be another male Targaryen' or 'I have to have another son.'

The truth is that Rhaenys is never mentioned in all that, and there is no hint that she figures into the entire question at all.

It is us who jump from 'The dragon has three heads' to the Targaryen banner and its origins, but that doesn't mean Rhaegar had the same line of thought. If he was talking prophecy there - and that seems to be the case - then there is no reason that this would have anything to do with Aegon and his sisters because as far as we know they aren't mentioned in the prophecy at all.

Second, let's see if we can agree on what is evident in Rhaegar's beliefs, as shown in Daenerys's vision in the House of the Undying and in Maester Aemon's words about Rhaegar's correspondence to him, and then see if we can place that in context and discern what it may all mean.

Among the things we learn from Daenerys's vision is that Rhaegar believed by the time shortly after his son's birth that Aegon was the Prince Who Was Promised. This is affirmed by Maester Aemon's remarks that show that prior to Aegon's conception, on the night of which there was a comet observed, that Rhaegar thought he himself was the PwwP. As an aside, Maester Aemon's remarks more than anything else tell us this vision is very likely a reflection of a real conversation between Rhaegar and Elia. Otherwise we could dismiss it all as some bad acid trip's hallucinations. But we can't.

We also learn that Rhaegar believes there must "be one more" because "the dragon has three heads." The numbers are important.

When this occurs there are how many Targaryens alive? We know of Maester Aemon, King Aerys, Queen Rhaella, Rhaegar, Rhaenys, Aegon, and young Viserys. Seven Targaryens.

The sigil has two meanings. One, it is specifically a reference to when it was made the three reigning Targaryens - Aegon the Conqueror, and his sisters,Visenya and Rhaenys. And two, it is a reference to any Targaryen who is a member of the royal house descended from them.

Now, when Rhaegar makes his statement about there must be "one more" because the "dragon has three heads" it is suggested by you that he could mean another Targaryen is needed. Seven living Targaryens when he says it, so why would one more Targaryen of any generation and relationship to Rhaegar be needed to make a set of three Targaryens? Obviously there is no need for "one more" if that is all he means.

But what if he means one more Targaryen male is needed? There are five living males needed including newborn Aegon who is already deemed a part of the three. Take your pick of the four others to make up the needed three, and you have two in reserve. Why would Rhaegar say, "there must be one more" if he means any random male Targaryen? He wouldn't say that if that was his meaning.

What if in addition to young Aegon he wants two more female Targaryens? He already has two Targaryen women in his mother Rhaella, and his daughter Rhaenys. Again, there is no reason for Rhaegar to say "there must be one more" if that is his meaning.

Obviously Rhaegar is not talking about just the need of any Targaryen to fill out his needed combination of three. He isn't looking for just any Targaryen male or female to fill out the three heads. He wants something more specific from the Targaryen who is that one more.

Now, could it be he is talking about three dragon riders? The problem here is that he has no idea whether or not Aegon and the unnamed second head of the dragon are really dragon riders. There are no hatched dragons to accept Targaryens as riders. It can't be another dragon rider he needs "one more" of.

Which gets us back to the other meaning of "the dragon has three heads." If it is a reference to Aegon and his sisters come again, then his need of "one more" makes sense. Aegon and his sisters did something that no Targaryen since has done. They created a new Kingdom and raised their house to it's pinnacle of power and glory. They ruled Westeros with their three dragons and imposed a peace on the warring kingdoms. They set the focus of the people of Westeros to following wherever the Targaryens would lead. This is precisely what Rhaegar would think is needed to face the War for the Dawn. Unity under a renewed Targaryen power and glory.

It makes sense then to need one more sister to go with Rhaenys and baby Aegon. A new generation that will bring back the dragons and unite the kingdom.

Sorry, LV, I don't see any support for your idea of another Targaryen male to go with Aegon and an already existing Targaryen male. I see a lot of sense in Rhaegar believing his children would fulfill the prophecy and bring back the power the Targaryens needed to face the Others.

Of course, Rhaegar was wrong. Now Daenerys has brought back three dragons into the world. The question is now who will ride those dragons, and lead House Targaryen in the War for the Dawn. But Rhaegar didn't know any of that would happen. He didn't even know he would have a sister, much less what she would accomplish.

 

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On 09/02/2016 at 7:37 AM, Rob Storm said:

Relatively new here and would love some opinions on Ned/Lyanna's promise, I have few questions:

If R+L=J is correct then Lyanna likely filled Ned in a little regarding tPtwP or at least some of Jon's significance and danger he is in. 

I doubt she did much filling in. She is literally dying in his arms and rallies enough to extract a few promises from him, at which time the desperation fades from her eyes and she dies.
WHat about that suggests she had time or energy for detailed explanations and background?

On 09/02/2016 at 7:37 AM, Rob Storm said:

Is Ned breaking Lyanna's promise simply by allowing Jon to go to the Wall?  

It seems unlikely. We know he already agonizes over promises he's broken to her. Yet he doesn't agonize over this decision at all.

On 09/02/2016 at 7:37 AM, Rob Storm said:

Does he feel he protected Jon as long as he could?  

I don't see any clues to this being his thinking. I'm not even sure he's fully aware of Jon;s 'heritage' (as in teh PwwP stuff and three heads of the dragon stuff, whether its appropriate or not - I'm sure he's aware Jon is Rahegar's and Lyanna's child. I'm not sure he's even aware if they got married though, let alone more).

It seems to me more like the decision to allow Jon to join the NW is almost a relief to Ned - he doesn't have any other good options and the boy himself is asking for it. Seems like Ned sees it more as a bunch of problems solved rather than a task completed at last.

On 09/02/2016 at 7:37 AM, Rob Storm said:

He is very aware that the Wall is dangerous and Winter is in fact Coming (even heard the questionable tales from the Nights Watch deserter to make the Wall seem more dangerous even than normal).  Seems like this is a poor way to protect his nephew and tPtwP if that was in fact Lyanna's dying wish.

Or not. Starks have a long tradition in the NW and his own brother is a senior member. Ned doesn't believe the rumours etc and does not appear at any time to think the NW in any greater danger or stress than before.

On 09/02/2016 at 7:37 AM, Rob Storm said:

Side question:  do we believe that Ned or Lyanna/Rhaegar gave Jon the name Jon? 

GRRM more or less stated (most like) that Jon was named by Ned.

On 09/02/2016 at 7:37 AM, Rob Storm said:

Could be a name Rhaegar wanted to use to honor his best friend Connington?  Not a traditional Stark name, but that could be because Ned doesn't want a "bastard" to have a Stark name like Brandon or Rickard.  

No.

5. Since all of their mothers died, who gave Jon Snow, Daenerys Targaryen and Tyrion Lannister their names?Mothers can name a child before birth, or during, or after, even while they are dying. Dany was most like named by her mother, Tyrion by his father, Jon by Ned.

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Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

 

Is it possible that Rhaegar ceased to believe he himself was the promised prince before he ever considered that it could be Aegon? That some time passed in between these two events, and thus that it wasn't the comet and later the birth of Aegon that made Rhaegar believe that he himself didn't fit the prophecy, but that those two were separated events?

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2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

 

Is it possible that Rhaegar ceased to believe he himself was the promised prince before he ever considered that it could be Aegon? That some time passed in between these two events, and thus that it wasn't the comet and later the birth of Aegon that made Rhaegar believe that he himself didn't fit the prophecy, but that those two were separated events?

It is certainly likely he had doubts before this. Why? We have too little information to tell. I give the nine months between the comet seen on the night of Aegon's conception to the scene between Rhaegar and Elia in Daenerys's vision as a time when we know the change to Aegon takes place, but, yes, it could be even earlier he had doubts and was beginning to look for a new answer. Perhaps he just grew tired of living a life he saw as controlled by prophecy.

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15 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

 

Is it possible that Rhaegar ceased to believe he himself was the promised prince before he ever considered that it could be Aegon? That some time passed in between these two events, and thus that it wasn't the comet and later the birth of Aegon that made Rhaegar believe that he himself didn't fit the prophecy, but that those two were separated events?

He must at least have had doubts. A man who doesn't doubt that he is not the savior of mankind is an irrational fanatic, and there is no indication that Rhaegar was overly irrational or even deeply convinced that he was special. A comet sighting is an astronomical event. It has no meaning at all. Meaning is (falsely) ascribed to it by human beings (in our reality). We see this happening in ACoK, and George really wants to hammer home the fact that everyone has a different opinion what the comet means. Your state of mind determines what you want such a 'sign' to mean. Had Rhaegar still believed at heart that he was the promised prince he would most likely never have made the connection between the comet and Aegon's conception. He clearly wanted to connect the comet and Aegon, and also twisted things a little bit the fit his view since, to our knowledge, the bleeding star in the prophecy alludes to the birth of the or rebirth of the savior, not the conception of the savior.

In fact, I've long argued that Rhaegar must have been fed the idea that he was the promised prince in the first place, and not necessarily by Aemon but by his parents and/or even his grandfather (although Jaehaerys II most likely had little time to influence young Rhaegar).

We know that Rhaegar read the promised prince prophecy at an early age. Who did show it to him? The chances are very low that a child just stumbled on such a text, even a child who was prone to spend much time in the library. Especially not in light of out ADwD and TWoIaF knowledge that Aerys/Rhaella and Jaehaerys II were tightly connected to the very same prophecy. It is not clear who first made the conclusion that Rhaegar was the promised prince - but even Aemon eventually believed that. If Aemon was at Summerhall or later came down to court for Egg's funeral and/or his nephew's coronation he certainly could have helped the Targaryens to reach 'the Summerhall conclusion' (smoke being the smoke from the fire, and salt being the salt from the tears for the dead). Thinking about that - we all know that Dany was born on Dragonstone in night in which a storm strong enough to rip stones out of the battlements of the castle roared over the islands and the bay, smashing the entire Targaryen fleet. She might not only be 'generally' born amidst smoke (from the Dragonmount) and salt (the surrounding sea) but quite literally if the winds carried seawater into the chamber where Rhaella delivered Dany and sprayed it over the newborn girl while the winds also blew the smoke from the fireplace down the chimney and into the chamber. Both things tends to happen in a huge storm, even more so in a medieval building.

But we know also, of course, that not just the criteria from the ancient promised prince prophecy would have influenced their idea but also - and to a much stronger degree - the Ghost's prophecy. She narrowed the potential candidates for the promised prince down to the line of Aerys and Rhaella. One assumes that this was a major factor in the whole expectation of the fulfillment of the prophecy. I mean, we see that back in the days of Aerys I the return of the dragons is just an idea a child like Egg considers to be great, but it is nothing anyone is expects to be to happening soon.

And there is, of course, a pretty big hint that Aegon V didn't believe in the promised prince prophecy at all (or at least not in the Ghost's addendum to the prophecy). Else he wouldn't have tried to bring the dragons back himself nor would he have opposed Jaehaerys' intention to marry Aerys to Rhaella.

This ties in to the other thing I've brought up. The problem of the idea that Rhaegar wanted to recreate the Conqueror and his sisters in his children after he reached the conclusion that Aegon was the promised prince.

As of yet we have no reason to assume that Rhaegar had received any 'special revelation' R (say, another prophecy of the Ghost, some prophetic dreams of his own, or the (re-)discovery of another ancient scroll containing a more detailed version of the prophecy) in-between the comet sighting and his conversation with Elia after Aegon's birth. Without that it seems problematic to me to assume Rhaegar would, essentially out of the blue, decide that the other dragon heads must be Aegon's (full) siblings and they must resemble the Conqueror and his sisters as closely as possible.

While Rhaegar and Aemon (and possibly Aerys and Rhaella) believed Rhaegar was the promised prince nobody thought he must have an elder sister - simply because that wasn't even an option anymore at this time. Granted, it is unknown whether Aerys and Rhaella wanted daughters or sons, we only know they desperately wanted more children, but nothing suggests that they wanted to give Rhaegar two little sisters before they began producing more sons. In essence, there is no hint that the prophecy as Rhaegar and Aerys and Rhaella and Aemon knew it suggested any sort of Conqueror-sisters-like dynamic in relation to the promised prince and 'the dragon heads'. If that was the case then a lot of people would have behaved much differently.

The question about the gender of the dragon heads is only insofar connected to the whole thing as it seems unlikely to me that the prophecy about the promised prince should be falsely interpreted as the savior being male but Rhaegar correctly interpreting the gender of the companions. For that he would have to have some reason to connect the promised prince prophecy to Aegon and his sisters and there is no reason give for that (yet). And while that remains this way I'm not going to believe that Rhaenys was believed to be one of the dragon heads. She could have been. But so could Viserys. Or even Rhaegar himself (Aerys and Rhaella are unlikely because the Ghost's prophecy may exclude them from being in the circle of the potential candidates).

As to the prophecy itself:

The Targaryen version Rhaegar and Aemon know must be remarkably different version from those of all the other people, especially those versions Benerro/Moqorro and Melisandre know. Mel never mentions any dragon heads at all, and Benerro only talks about one hero, too, in those sermons we have heard. Granted, Moqorro and he might know more about existing Targaryens, but not necessarily about ancient prophecies. Even more importantly is the fact that Tyrion has no clue whatsoever that the prophecy Benerro talks about might actually include more than one savior or allow the inclusion of secondary saviors/heroes in the whole mystical narrative. He is reluctant to draw Aegon in the whole thing - which he most likely wouldn't have been had he been familiar with the version of the prophecy Rhaegar knew and thus realized that Benerro essentially talks about the same guy as that prophecy.

The more important point why the Targaryens must have a very special version of the prophecy is the whole 'promised prince' aspect of the thing. It is was makes it clear that the prophesied hero is a Targaryen, something the other more general versions (return of Azor Ahai) don't seem to include. In fact, the only thing what seems to lead Benerro to his conclusion about Dany is the fact that she brings the dragons back.

Mel seems to have learned that the prophesied guy must have Targaryen blood but clearly has missed the update on the other dragon heads. And I still wonder how it even can make sense that she doesn't seem to have had any idea that Viserys might be the One. I guess she must have had a vision about Stannis and Dragonstone and misinterpreted it, but it is still strange that she never even mentions the actual Targaryens, especially in light of the fact that Stannis' Targaryen ancestry most likely is at least part of the reason why she thinks that this guy is the One.

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Lord Varys, you've probably answered these objections many times already, but I'd be grateful if you cared to discuss this once more...

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We know that Rhaegar read the promised prince prophecy at an early age. Who did show it to him? The chances are very low that a child just stumbled on such a text, even a child who was prone to spend much time in the library.

Maybe not 'very low." Any young bookworm would love to read about stuff like ancient prophecies.
It's quite possible he was told about it ; I'd say Barry's quote suggests Rhaegar found it on his own though.

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Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him.

Of course, this doesn't mean no one told him about the prophecy in the first place... But I think Barry would have known if it one of Rhaegar's parents had actually showed him the scrolls, so it seems to me they likely didn't really believe Rhaegar was the One.

But we know also, of course, that not just the criteria from the ancient promised prince prophecy would have influenced their idea but also - and to a much stronger degree - the Ghost's prophecy. She narrowed the potential candidates for the promised prince down to the line of Aerys and Rhaella. One assumes that this was a major factor in the whole expectation of the fulfillment of the prophecy. I mean, we see that back in the days of Aerys I the return of the dragons is just an idea a child like Egg considers to be great, but it is nothing anyone is expects to be to happening soon.

"The line of Aerys and Rhaella" only means that Aerys and Rhaella were supposed to marry in order for TPtwP to be born later, doesn't it? How much later is unknown, but it doesn't seem many people believed it could be the children, or Viserys would likely have known about it. Even assuming Aerys's madness prevented anyone from doing anything about it, after Aerys's and Rhaegar's death, there was every reason for Rhaella to tell her son.

The fact that no one told Viserys doesn't mean no one told Rhaegar of course. These were different times after all.

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The Targaryen version Rhaegar and Aemon know must be remarkably different version from those of all the other people, especially those versions Benerro/Moqorro and Melisandre know. Mel never mentions any dragon heads at all, and Benerro only talks about one hero, too, in those sermons we have heard.

Certainly. But it's not clear that the three heads is contained in the same prophecy, is it? For all we know the "three heads" could be a slightly different prophecy, saying that Targaryans are more likely to succeed when they form trios, or that the number 3 is extra-lucky for them. Rhaegar would have naturally assumed that TPtwP would thus need two companions.
My point is, we don't know where the line "The dragon has three heads" comes from. Do we even know for sure that it is a prophecy, and not a common Targaryan saying because of Aegon and the House sigil? And, if it is a prophecy... Wouldn't that make Dany the only real candidate with her three dragons?

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6 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Lord Varys, you've probably answered these objections many times already, but I'd be grateful if you cared to discuss this once more...

Maybe not 'very low." Any young bookworm would love to read about stuff like ancient prophecies.
It's quite possible he was told about it ; I'd say Barry's quote suggests Rhaegar found it on his own though.

Of course, this doesn't mean no one told him about the prophecy in the first place... But I think Barry would have known if it one of Rhaegar's parents had actually showed him the scrolls, so it seems to me they likely didn't really believe Rhaegar was the One.

"The line of Aerys and Rhaella" only means that Aerys and Rhaella were supposed to marry in order for TPtwP to be born later, doesn't it? How much later is unknown, but it doesn't seem many people believed it could be the children, or Viserys would likely have known about it. Even assuming Aerys's madness prevented anyone from doing anything about it, after Aerys's and Rhaegar's death, there was every reason for Rhaella to tell her son.

The fact that no one told Viserys doesn't mean no one told Rhaegar of course. These were different times after all.

Certainly. But it's not clear that the three heads is contained in the same prophecy, is it? For all we know the "three heads" could be a slightly different prophecy, saying that Targaryans are more likely to succeed when they form trios, or that the number 3 is extra-lucky for them. Rhaegar would have naturally assumed that TPtwP would thus need two companions.
My point is, we don't know where the line "The dragon has three heads" comes from. Do we even know for sure that it is a prophecy, and not a common Targaryan saying because of Aegon and the House sigil? And, if it is a prophecy... Wouldn't that make Dany the only real candidate with her three dragons?

I can at least try...

I happen to have been a young bookworm but I wasn't into ancient prophecy stuff myself. Nor did I like books about cars, sports, or fashion. Being a bookworm doesn't determine your interests.

Even if Rhaegar stumbled on the prophecy all by himself (unlikely but possible) somebody must have told him about the Ghost's prophecy to help him come to the conclusion that he was the promised prince. The prophecy did not read 'Rhaegar Targaryen, born in 259 AC, is the promised prince' after all. And the idea that anyone outside the royal family itself could have fed or reinforced Rhaegar's belief that he was the promised prince is simply difficult to believe. The king controls the life of his family and children, and if Rhaegar's tutors or companions had fed him ideas that Aerys (or Rhaella) did not like those guys would pretty quickly never spoken to Rhaegar ever again.

More importantly, Rhaegar gives the impression of not wanting to be the promised prince. He says something like 'It seems I have to be a warrior' when he enters the yard - that suggests that he didn't reach the conclusion that he was the One all by himself. I mean, how realistic is it that a young boy just interprets an ancient prophecy all by himself, doesn't really want to be the warrior/hero the prophecy speaks about, but still reaches the conclusion that the prophecy talks about him?

The Ghost's prophecy is that the promised prince will be born from Aerys and Rhaella's line. He will be their descendant. It can mean that he will be their child, but it can also mean grandchild, great-grandchild, and so on. However, with them only having Rhaegar for quite a long time it is naturally for them to assume that he might be the One or at least the one who will continue their line to eventually produce the promised prince. As long as they have only one living child nobody else can continue their line.

But the interpretation of Summerhall was a core part why Aemon (and presumably Aerys/Rhaella and Rhaegar later, too) thought that Rhaegar was the promised prince. But, of course, Rhaegar would have been fed that information, too. He wouldn't have remembered his own birth there nor the smoke of the fire or the salt of the tears. His parents would have told him about that. And without that knowledge Rhaegar never would have formed his strange affection for the ruins of Summerhall and all (which could actually be a hint that he never wanted to a be the savior but felt overwhelmed by the interpretation of the Summerhall-related signs pointing towards him).

Not sure what you mean about Viserys there. He never talks about prophecy, and it is therefore very likely nobody ever told him.

I think I addressed the whole part of the three-headed dragon already. I assume there was no special other revelation/prophecy Rhaegar could draw additional information on the three-headed dragon thing.

If it was just a saying or if Rhaegar was for some weird reason just a huge fan of the three-headed dragon sigil and Aegon and his sister-wives then it would be very weird to connect that with actually important plot-related stuff about the prophecy.

If we assume the Targaryen banner itself was actually inspired by text of the prophecy because Aegon fancied himself the promised prince, and him and his sister-wives 'the three heads of the dragon' the prophecy also spoke about. I mean, why the hell is the sigil a three-headed dragon and not three dragons? After all, they had three dragons, and later Targaryens (like Aegon II) took individual dragons as their personal sigils or multiplied the dragons on the banner to make a point (Aerys I and Maekar, for instance).

A three-headed dragon is one creature with three heads. It could easily enough to an allusion to 'one hero in three bodies' or 'three heroes together fulfill one huge task' or something like that. My personal guess is that Dany is pretty much right with her view on the other dragon heads. They are the people she can trust more than anybody else, and they will be the one whose help she needs the most to fulfill her destiny and save the world.

In fact, if you check everything we know about the prophecy - which isn't all that much: born amidst smoke and salt, wakes dragons from stone, coming heralded by a bleeding star - you'll realize that all that already happened in AGoT. Dany woke dragons from stone, a bright red comet first showed up when she did that, and she was either born amidst smoke and salt on Dragonstone or she was 'reborn' as the Mother of Dragons amidst Drogo's pyre.

If you want you even can drag Lightbringer into all that which the dragons could easily embody on a metaphorical level - dragonfire is pretty bright, after all. And Dany actually quite literally pulled the dragons out of the pyre. Only Melisandre insists on the hero having a fancy magic sword. The historical Azor Ahai (if he ever existed) may or may not have had such a sword, but the promised prince may certainly not need it. And even if he/she later has or makes magic swords they won't be as important as the dragons (who may even be crucial in the making of magical 'dragon steel' or Valyrian steel).

Rhaegar tells us that the promised prince's song is the Song of Ice and Fire but what that means we don't know yet. Most likely the fight against the Others - and that fight seems to be Daenerys' ultimate task as she sees herself in Rhaegar's armor fighting some ice guys at the Trident. That is pretty straightforward.

If you want to put forth another candidate for the promised prince you have to invent or assume future plot lines leading to another not-so-literal fulfillment of the prophecies that Dany already fulfilled - which would be a very strange plot indeed since technically it should then be very difficult for George to sell us the idea that the literal fulfillment was a red herring while the convoluted metaphorical fulfillment is the real deal. I mean, who is going to buy the metaphorical version in-universe when the literal version involves living breathing dragons?

Not to mention that George would a lot less smart if actually fulfilled the whole prophecy only after he had spelled it out completely so that we or some characters could now separate the 'literal red herring' from the actually metaphorical fulfillment. Instead, George actually fulfilled a good deal of the promised prince prophecy (the waking of dragons from stone) back in AGoT long before it was even introduced into the series that the reborn Azor Ahai/promised prince was supposed to do such a thing (that only comes up in ASoS, if I remember correctly). That way you can really confuse people. Dany isn't male, Dany doesn't have a sword, and what she did back in AGoT is scarcely ever seen through the lenses of the prophecy. But the parallels between the tale of Azor Ahai and Nissa Nissa and the hatching of the dragon eggs are there.

I personally think Dany, Jon Snow, and Tyrion will form a sort of savior trinity. They will become the crucial Targaryen-blooded people at the core who lead humanity to a victory over the Others. Dany has already provided them with the major means for the fight - the dragons - Jon Snow learns as much as he can about the enemy and does all he can to oppose the Others while Dany and the dragons are still away, and Tyrion is the guy who'll bring them all together.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

more stuff

LV,

did you want to respond to my explanations of why Rhaegar isn't searching for just one more Targaryen, or one more Targaryen male, or one more Targaryen female? I understand you don't want to agree that Rhaegar is trying to recreate Aegon and his children in his own children, but you don't seem to want to venture a guess that makes sense in that Rhaegar is looking for a Targaryen with what special characteristic that  ties him or her to Aegon in a way that separates the "one more" from all but Aegon and one other of existing Targaryens. It is not just Targaryen blood. It is not just Targaryen blood and being male. It is not just Targaryen blood and being female. What is it? What special thing do you think Rhaegar is looking for in that one more head of the dragon?

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7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 

LV,

did you want to respond to my explanations of why Rhaegar isn't searching for just one more Targaryen, or one more Targaryen male, or one more Targaryen female? I understand you don't want to agree that Rhaegar is trying to recreate Aegon and his children in his own children, but you don't seem to want to venture a guess that makes sense in that Rhaegar is looking for a Targaryen with what special characteristic that  ties him or her to Aegon in a way that separates the "one more" from all but Aegon and one other of existing Targaryens. It is not just Targaryen blood. It is not just Targaryen blood and being male. It is not just Targaryen blood and being female. What is it? What special thing do you think Rhaegar is looking for in that one more head of the dragon?

I really don't know what this is about. My best guess is, as I've tried to mention above, that Rhaegar (and perhaps also his parents and Aemon/Jaehaerys) believed that the promised prince and his companions must be from the same generation. No idea how they would have reached such a conclusion, though. Could be that the prophecy text hinted at something like that or people concluded it because the talk about the dragon heads indicated the 'other heads' were very close to the promised prince.

This could the exclude Rhaegar himself because of his age, Aerys (and Rhaella, too) because they were the founders of the line which would bring forth the promised prince, not his destined companions. But Viserys is rather closely in age to Aegon, and he is much more closely related to Aerys and Rhaella than either Aegon or Rhaenys.

I have difficulty imagining that Rhaegar suddenly took upon the 'savior-creating thing' all on himself when there is (as of yet) no hint that he figured into the entire thing at all. All he could work with was the original prophecy and the Ghost's addendum to it, and that gave Aerys and Rhaella important roles, not Rhaegar. Whether Rhaegar and his line, Viserys and his line, or another future child of Aerys and Rhaella would bring forth the promised prince wasn't clear (not to mention that it could have been both lines interconnected due to cousin marriages in the next generations).

If Rhaegar felt the pressure to produce the third it may have simply been because he was the most likely candidate to be able to do so. Viserys was still too young to have children of his own, Aegon and Rhaenys, too. And Rhaella was nearly beyond child-bearing age at this time, and she and her brother-husband had long been estranged. There is no hint that Aerys and Rhaella ever had consensual intercourse after Viserys' birth, nor is there any hint that she and Aerys tried to have another child thereafter. Aerys didn't seem to have begun raping Rhaella by the time of Aegon's birth. Had Rhaegar expected his mother to give birth to another child he most likely wouldn't have felt the need to produce the third dragon head.

Unless, of course, we assume that he had some private special revelation we don't yet know anything about. He may have had something like that but it seems that if such a thing happened it only occurred after the Rhaegar-Elia Aegon conversation, most likely during Rhaegar's journey to the Riverlands. Hell, perhaps he actually visited the Isle of Faces before he abducted Lyanna. That would be huge and interesting, and potentially plot-related, too (becoming important later on when the Green Men show up).

But I'm not really sure Rhaegar is even looking for something important in the third dragon head. Aegon and his sister-wives all were full siblings, after all. Any child of Lyanna's (or any other woman's, really) would by default not be as close to Aegon and Rhaenys (if we assume for a moment she was the other dragon head) nor would it constitute a recreation of the Conqueror and his sisters. It would be at best be a failed attempt to do so, even if Jon Snow had been a girl instead of a boy.

Somewhat unrelated to that I might add that as things turn out prophecy doesn't seem to care about legitimate birth. Perhaps not even with the promised prince him-/herself. If Tyrion is one of the dragon heads he is neither of Aerys and Rhaella's line nor a royal prince. Unless we make the rather adventurous assumption that Rhaegar must have believed all the dragon heads have to be legitimate children there is no need to assume he would have had to marry Lyanna to produce the third head.

I think they were married, of course, but there is no need to overemphasize prophecy for that. It could just have been love. Just as choosing Lyanna as the mother of the third head may have just been love, not prophecy also pushing for her to be the ideal mother for this guy. Just as it apparently didn't matter all that much that Elia Martell was the mother of Aegon.

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8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I happen to have been a young bookworm but I wasn't into ancient prophecy stuff myself. Nor did I like books about cars, sports, or fashion. Being a bookworm doesn't determine your interests.

I think it's more about a classic "trope" or element of characterization that young bookworms are curious by nature and will easily be interested by anything pertaining to "deeper mysteries." In a fantasy setting, a character reading books often means this character has access to important -and/or secret- information ; books mean knowledge, which means power. In fact, this has been the case throughout ASOAIF so far with the examples of Sam and Tyrion, if not many more. The "bookish" nature of Rhaegar always seemed to indicate that, like Sam and Tyrion, he found information thanks to his curiosity.

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Even if Rhaegar stumbled on the prophecy all by himself (unlikely but possible) somebody must have told him about the Ghost's prophecy to help him come to the conclusion that he was the promised prince.

Yes, this seems obvious. My money'd be on Aemon btw.

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More importantly, Rhaegar gives the impression of not wanting to be the promised prince. He says something like 'It seems I have to be a warrior' when he enters the yard - that suggests that he didn't reach the conclusion that he was the One all by himself. I mean, how realistic is it that a young boy just interprets an ancient prophecy all by himself, doesn't really want to be the warrior/hero the prophecy speaks about, but still reaches the conclusion that the prophecy talks about him?

I don't know. I always read this line as Rhaegar only playing the reluctant savior, but embracing this important role nonetheless. Then, later, growing out of it as he started having kids... A lot of kids want to be "the One" at some point or another. I once read a book about literary criticism saying that, from a psychological point of view, Harry Potter was the secret desire of most children, hence its success.

But your reading of this line is equally probable. Psychological analysis aside, it is more likely.
 

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The Ghost's prophecy is that the promised prince will be born from Aerys and Rhaella's line. He will be their descendant. It can mean that he will be their child, but it can also mean grandchild, great-grandchild, and so on. However, with them only having Rhaegar for quite a long time it is naturally for them to assume that he might be the One or at least the one who will continue their line to eventually produce the promised prince. As long as they have only one living child nobody else can continue their line.

But the interpretation of Summerhall was a core part why Aemon (and presumably Aerys/Rhaella and Rhaegar later, too) thought that Rhaegar was the promised prince. But, of course, Rhaegar would have been fed that information, too. He wouldn't have remembered his own birth there nor the smoke of the fire or the salt of the tears. His parents would have told him about that. And without that knowledge Rhaegar never would have formed his strange affection for the ruins of Summerhall and all (which could actually be a hint that he never wanted to a be the savior but felt overwhelmed by the interpretation of the Summerhall-related signs pointing towards him).

Not sure what you mean about Viserys there. He never talks about prophecy, and it is therefore very likely nobody ever told him.

 

Yet, my point about Viserys is the most important here.

After Rhaegar's death, it seemed important that his brother would know about the prophecy. After the sack, it seemed absolutely essential.

The fact that he wasn't suggests to me that Aemon was the one feeding Rhaegar information, not Rhaella or Aerys.

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If it was just a saying or if Rhaegar was for some weird reason just a huge fan of the three-headed dragon sigil and Aegon and his sister-wives then it would be very weird to connect that with actually important plot-related stuff about the prophecy.

Why? Tradition and prophecy can be closely related.

For instance, imagine the original Dothraki prophecy was actually  about a "rider" or "horse" and not a "stallion." The Dothraki would automatically assume this rider is male and call him a stallion because they don't follow women as a rule.
In other words, tradition and culture may have a role in misreading prophecy.

This being said, I have to admit it is easier to assume the "there must be three heads" came from the prophecy. I dislike what conclusions this generally leads people to however.

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In fact, if you check everything we know about the prophecy - which isn't all that much: born amidst smoke and salt, wakes dragons from stone, coming heralded by a bleeding star - you'll realize that all that already happened in AGoT. Dany woke dragons from stone, a bright red comet first showed up when she did that, and she was either born amidst smoke and salt on Dragonstone or she was 'reborn' as the Mother of Dragons amidst Drogo's pyre.

If you want you even can drag Lightbringer into all that which the dragons could easily embody on a metaphorical level - dragonfire is pretty bright, after all. And Dany actually quite literally pulled the dragons out of the pyre. Only Melisandre insists on the hero having a fancy magic sword. The historical Azor Ahai (if he ever existed) may or may not have had such a sword, but the promised prince may certainly not need it. And even if he/she later has or makes magic swords they won't be as important as the dragons (who may even be crucial in the making of magical 'dragon steel' or Valyrian steel).

If you want to put forth another candidate for the promised prince you have to invent or assume future plot lines leading to another not-so-literal fulfillment of the prophecies that Dany already fulfilled - which would be a very strange plot indeed since technically it should then be very difficult for George to sell us the idea that the literal fulfillment was a red herring while the convoluted metaphorical fulfillment is the real deal. I mean, who is going to buy the metaphorical version in-universe when the literal version involves living breathing dragons?

Not to mention that George would a lot less smart if actually fulfilled the whole prophecy only after he had spelled it out completely so that we or some characters could now separate the 'literal red herring' from the actually metaphorical fulfillment. Instead, George actually fulfilled a good deal of the promised prince prophecy (the waking of dragons from stone) back in AGoT long before it was even introduced into the series that the reborn Azor Ahai/promised prince was supposed to do such a thing (that only comes up in ASoS, if I remember correctly). That way you can really confuse people. Dany isn't male, Dany doesn't have a sword, and what she did back in AGoT is scarcely ever seen through the lenses of the prophecy. But the parallels between the tale of Azor Ahai and Nissa Nissa and the hatching of the dragon eggs are there.

 

I wholeheartdely agree with all this. Although I have to say I always thought this was "unopular opinion" on the R+L=J threads. ;)

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I personally think Dany, Jon Snow, and Tyrion will form a sort of savior trinity. They will become the crucial Targaryen-blooded people at the core who lead humanity to a victory over the Others. Dany has already provided them with the major means for the fight - the dragons - Jon Snow learns as much as he can about the enemy and does all he can to oppose the Others while Dany and the dragons are still away, and Tyrion is the guy who'll bring them all together.

This was my belief as well. At the very least, they are the three best candidates for the "three heads."
But I don't know how easy it will be for them to end up working as a team, and their task may be greater than winning against the Others.

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2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

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Well, I don't think that Rhaegar needed to feel special in a 'savior sense'. He was a royal prince and therefore already a very special person. Being rather smart he would have realized how that set him apart from other people and stuff. There is little reason to assume he wanted to be special in any way.

The bookworm thing is tricky because Westerosi scholars are actually rational and skeptical rather than mystics. They don't buy a story just because magic is mentioned therein. They are critical and actually question sources and stuff. A good deal of Tyrion's own skepticism towards both religion and magic comes from the fact that he is learned. Rhaegar reading a lot shouldn't make him some guy who falls for a prophecy without having a good reason to believe in it. Leading things back to his parents.

Aemon cannot have been a major influence on Rhaegar's development unless we assume the closest father figure a boy under ten years had was his great-granduncle who lived half a world away and wrote him some letters once in a while. Rhaegar certainly seems to have asked Aemon for advice, but that doesn't mean they were close emotionally or even personally acquainted with each other.

Aemon certainly could have traveled to KL for Egg's funeral and/or Jaehaerys' or Aerys' coronation, but we don't know if that was the case. Children usually don't form attachment to very distant relations.

As to Viserys:

One should expect that Rhaella told Viserys about the prophecy. But then, perhaps she decided that it was all bogus after the deaths of Rhaegar and the children.

Rhaella and Aerys both knew about the prophecy and the Ghost's addendum, and due to their physical closeness they are much better candidates to tell Rhaegar stuff than Aemon. But it is not unlikely that both changed their minds about the whole thing overtime. Aerys' madness certainly would have influenced his ability to think clearly.

Tradition and culture certainly influence how you interpret a prophecy, even how you write it down. I mean, we don't know what the source for the whole thing is - a dream, some kind of Maggy-like forecast? In any case the prophet would have to articulate the prophecy and the words he or she chose would have been shaped by his personality and culture. Translation and interpretation murky the waters later even more, and so on.

But Rhaegar should have been smart enough to not believe that a prophecy more ancient than the Targaryen sigil wouldn't have referred to that sigil or the persons who chose that sigil for themselves. I mean, if Aegon and his sisters knew the prophecy that could explain why they chose the sigil, right? And they easily could have known the prophecy. If the prophecy had been made after the sigil had been created the prophet could have referred to it in the prophecy. But that isn't the case.

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