Friends in the Reach

[Lost Melnibonean]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

She can still die by his hand, at the very end of the series. There is no reason for us to assume this has to happen in the near future of the story. In fact, it could be a very sad murder with Cersei being already completely broken and destroyed, thrown into some cell by Dany, and Jaime just going in there for the sadistic pleasure of seeing the light in her eyes going out while her strangles her.

If Cersei ends up teaming up with Euron she could certainly become one of the main threats for the people of Westeros. Once Tommen and Myrcella are dead she has nothing to lose and everybody to kill, and Euron will gladly help her with that. She could be directly or indirectly responsible for the deaths of ten thousands of people in the conflicts to come.

Sure. But Stannis and the Iron Bank have a deal. What kind of deal could Aegon offer the Three Daughters? He is not likely going to be able to help them. Aegon and the Yunkai'i or the Volantenes could also have a common enemy at one point but that doesn't mean they will ever into a formal alliance.

As to Jaime... really? 

As to Aegon... he will fight Daenerys. Wouldn't that be useful to the Three Daughters, if, as you suggest, they will be opposed to Daenerys? 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to Jaime... really?

Sure, if Cersei ends up hurting Jaime very much - say, by burning a captured Brienne alive or by doing some other heinous thing - I could see him doing something of that sort. I don't think Jaime is going to get a good ending.

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to Aegon... he will fight Daenerys. Wouldn't that be useful to the Three Daughters, if, as you suggest, they will be opposed to Daenerys? 

But he might not yet fight Daenerys when she is on the way to Westeros, no? The Three Daughters might feel threatened by Dany's people long before Dany's intention of coming west after all reaches Westeros. Even Varys and Illyrio should now be focused on helping Aegon with his campaign. They won't be able to use as many resources as they used to on Essos, especially after Illyrio has left Pentos for KL.

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, if Cersei ends up hurting Jaime very much - say, by burning a captured Brienne alive or by doing some other heinous thing - I could see him doing something of that sort. I don't think Jaime is going to get a good ending.

I do, but very bittersweet. I suspect he will play Kingmaker for Aegon, whom he will assume is Rhaegar's son, and then fight along side Rhaegar's true son, saving humanity against the Others, and Brienne might even be with him. 

As to Aegon, do you foresee Aegon and Daenerys dancing, or not? 

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I do, but very bittersweet. I suspect he will play Kingmaker for Aegon, whom he will assume is Rhaegar's son, and then fight along side Rhaegar's true son, saving humanity against the Others, and Brienne might even be with him.

I actually think Brienne is more important than Jaime in the fight against the Others.

13 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to Aegon, do you foresee Aegon and Daenerys dancing, or not? 

It is a possibility but I always said that the Second Dance is clearly also going to feature Euron and possibly also Stannis. The idea that it is a given that it will be Aegon vs. Daenerys is still only a possibility. A rather strong possibility but still not yet confirmed.

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Given what we bow know from The Foresaken, do you still believe that Euron will raid or capture Oldtown? That's  what I expected too, but after reading the Foresaken I have doubts.

(Please be sure to use spoiler tags for any actual content from The Foresaken or any of the other spoiler chapters.)

I'm sure he will, but first he needs to defeat the Redwyne fleet. 200 ships strong IIRC. War galleys, not long ships. Conventionally the ironborn don't stand a chance. Unconventionally, well.... What it is described in the Forsaken is the prelude of a that battle. It may also be that a good fraction of the Iron Fleet is creeping behind the Redwynes ships, maybe augmented by the corsairs of the Basilisk isles if that theory Euron=Corsair King is true.

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think he did. He knows how the favorable the situation right now is. KL and Westeros is ripe for the taking. Aegon will take it, dragons or not. The challenge will be to hold it. They are not likely to have a good picture of Euron's abilities as of yet. And once the news about Dany's alleged death comes they will be glad that Aegon did not go to Slaver's Bay. At least until they get the really good news on Dany.

For sure he knows how favorable the situation is. He also knows that a 10k army doesn't stand a chance against the Tyrells for example. He also knows the legitimacy problems if coming without Dany. He needs to maneuver to make the best of it, and he did. I know Illyrio and Varys have been very adaptable with their plans, but I'm sure it wasn't in their plans to come with the GC alone. The last plan was to come with the remaining Dany's army (also ~10k strong) and three freaking dragons. Not to mention figures like Barristan and Tyrion. Of course it was never in their plans to go to Slaver's Bay. They thought that Dany will march west to claim his birth right and Illyrio was making sure that she is properly received in Volantis. Euron for now seems like a gift of the gods for them. But not for too long.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure that Euron is going to burn Oldtown. He could also humiliate the Hightowers in battle and force them to surrender the city as his ancestors did. He wants the Iron Throne and to get it he should not overly antagonize his future subjects. If he burned Oldtown the Reach would definitely unite against him. And not only the Reach.

I don't think Euron's endgame is to rule Westeros. He only cares about the Iron Throne as a symbol where he can symbolically 'impale' the gods and raise himself as the new god.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

For sure he knows how favorable the situation is. He also knows that a 10k army doesn't stand a chance against the Tyrells for example.

They don't? 10,000 professional soldiers should make short work out of 20,000 Tyrell men. Even more shouldn't be that much of a problem if they can use the elephants to their advantage.

Mace is most likely only going to throw 15,000-20,000 men against Aegon. He has to keep a decent portion of his army back in the city to keep the peace there. 

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

He also knows the legitimacy problems if coming without Dany. He needs to maneuver to make the best of it, and he did. I know Illyrio and Varys have been very adaptable with their plans, but I'm sure it wasn't in their plans to come with the GC alone.

It definitely wasn't. My idea is only that Varys and Illyrio were okay with Aegon coming now in light of the fact that Dany was not coming. And was they learn that Dany allegedly died in Daznak's Pit they will be glad that Aegon didn't go into that snake pit. 

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

The last plan was to come with the remaining Dany's army (also ~10k strong) and three freaking dragons. Not to mention figures like Barristan and Tyrion. Of course it was never in their plans to go to Slaver's Bay. They thought that Dany will march west to claim his birth right and Illyrio was making sure that she is properly received in Volantis. Euron for now seems like a gift of the gods for them. But not for too long.

The plan was to wait for Dany at Volantis. They expected her to take the demon road and that she would be paying a heavy toll on that road. Aegon was then supposed to meet her as her savior and new best friend, offering to bolster her ranks with the Golden Company. They would have been partners.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think Euron's endgame is to rule Westeros. He only cares about the Iron Throne as a symbol where he can symbolically 'impale' the gods and raise himself as the new god.

Spoiler

I think that's an over-interpretation of the dream. Euron likes to mess with Aeron's head. The man is a priest which means that Euron likes to be blasphemous. But I very much doubt that Euron gives a fig about gods or being a god. That's nonsense.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They don't? 10,000 professional soldiers should make short work out of 20,000 Tyrell men. Even more shouldn't be that much of a problem if they can use the elephants to their advantage.Mace is most likely only going to throw 15,000-20,000 men against Aegon. He has to keep a decent portion of his army back in the city to keep the peace there. 

It definitely wasn't. My idea is only that Varys and Illyrio were okay with Aegon coming now in light of the fact that Dany was not coming. And was they learn that Dany allegedly died in Daznak's Pit they will be glad that Aegon didn't go into that snake pit. 

The plan was to wait for Dany at Volantis. They expected her to take the demon road and that she would be paying a heavy toll on that road. Aegon was then supposed to meet her as her savior and new best friend, offering to bolster her ranks with the Golden Company. They would have been partners.

1) They have 5,000 men right now, not 10K. They also have no idea where the other men are. These men are also going to blooded veterans, of the blackwater at least. 2:1 advantage in similarly armed, armored, and trained men (but not supplied similarly) is a helluva advantage. The elephants might well help them but historically elephants were as much of a hindrance as a help in classical times. Most Westerosi infantry is armed with pikes and long spears. Elephants aren't going to charge into those.

2) They still are going to outnumber them 3x-4x and be commanded by someone competent or better (Rowan, Tarly, Garlan, et al).

3) I highly doubt that Aegon is going to attack someone with a dragon as large as Drogon. He doesn't have any strength at sea to prevent her from landing with whatever forces she is going to have.

[Lord Wraith]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I do, but very bittersweet. I suspect he will play Kingmaker for Aegon, whom he will assume is Rhaegar's son, and then fight along side Rhaegar's true son, saving humanity against the Others, and Brienne might even be with him. 

As to Aegon, do you foresee Aegon and Daenerys dancing, or not? 

I am not sure if they will Dance.  If you figure Winds will see Battles of Ice,  Fire,  Invasion of the Reach by Euron, and invasion of Westeros by Aegon.  Dany dealing with  the Dothraki,  Slavers Bay and maybe Volantis. Also whatever Doran and Baelish are planning. 

Dreams should plausibly be  the new war for the Dawn. So when do they have time to dance? 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

1) They have 5,000 men right now, not 10K. They also have no idea where the other men are.

That was back in Jon Connington's last chapter. In the meantime they would have connected with the other people, as they began to do at the very end of that chapter when they learned about the capture of Tarth and Estermont. Keep in mind that quite some time is going to pass between the last Connington chapter and the eventual battle. Mace has already announced that he is not going to bestir himself as long as Margaery is not off the hook. So we'll get her trial first before there is going to be a battle.

8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They also have no idea where the other men are. These men are also going to blooded veterans, of the blackwater at least. 2:1 advantage in similarly armed, armored, and trained men (but not supplied similarly) is a helluva advantage. The elephants might well help them but historically elephants were as much of a hindrance as a help in classical times. Most Westerosi infantry is armed with pikes and long spears. Elephants aren't going to charge into those.

 

We'll have to wait and see. There should be some Blackwater and Duskendale veterans among them, true, but the men of the Golden Company have done nothing but professional killings since their youth. They know how to fight, and their lines won't break. And unlike the Reach men Jon Connington does know the terrain in the Stormlands.

8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

2) They still are going to outnumber them 3x-4x and be commanded by someone competent or better (Rowan, Tarly, Garlan, et al).

Garlan is not there. And Rowan is with the token force that keeps Stannis' men pinned inside Strom's End. He will either be dead or with the forces of the Golden Company when the Tyrell army comes.

Tarly certainly would be a capable commander if he gets the command. If Mace himself commands the troops things will look differently.

8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

3) I highly doubt that Aegon is going to attack someone with a dragon as large as Drogon. He doesn't have any strength at sea to prevent her from landing with whatever forces she is going to have.

That is why I think Euron is going to become a major threat for Dany's fleet while she is still at sea. Aegon has no means to prevent her from landing. Euron might, by the time Dany is on the way.

[rotting sea cow]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They don't? 10,000 professional soldiers should make short work out of 20,000 Tyrell men. Even more shouldn't be that much of a problem if they can use the elephants to their advantage.

Mace is most likely only going to throw 15,000-20,000 men against Aegon. He has to keep a decent portion of his army back in the city to keep the peace there. 

The thing is that they couldn't have known that. They know that Tywin is dead and there may be some 'friends in the Reach' and Dorne needs to persuaded. It was a very risky move that became successful thanks to unforeseen events, like the ironborn invasion that draws a good fraction of the Reach forces and the Lannister-Tyrell regime falling apart in a catastrophic way. 

 

Quote

It definitely wasn't. My idea is only that Varys and Illyrio were okay with Aegon coming now in light of the fact that Dany was not coming. And was they learn that Dany allegedly died in Daznak's Pit they will be glad that Aegon didn't go into that snake pit. 

Imagine Illyrio coming back to Pentos. First he hears that Dany is staying in Meeren, then about a growing coalition going against her, then that Volantis joined that coalition (What? I'm paying them!) , then uh-oh GC sailing to Westeros. There is no way that Varys and/or Illyrio could have any influence in these events. They adapted to them. 

And the problem of legitimacy is a serious one. Who is going to believe that YG is Aegon son of Rhaegar? Nobody, unless Dorne supports them. Dorne is more important that few 10k of soldiers, it's the key to legitimacy.

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That was back in Jon Connington's last chapter. In the meantime they would have connected with the other people, as they began to do at the very end of that chapter when they learned about the capture of Tarth and Estermont. Keep in mind that quite some time is going to pass between the last Connington chapter and the eventual battle. Mace has already announced that he is not going to bestir himself as long as Margaery is not off the hook. So we'll get her trial first before there is going to be a battle.

We'll have to wait and see. There should be some Blackwater and Duskendale veterans among them, true, but the men of the Golden Company have done nothing but professional killings since their youth. They know how to fight, and their lines won't break. And unlike the Reach men Jon Connington does know the terrain in the Stormlands.

Garlan is not there. And Rowan is with the token force that keeps Stannis' men pinned inside Strom's End. He will either be dead or with the forces of the Golden Company when the Tyrell army comes.

Tarly certainly would be a capable commander if he gets the command. If Mace himself commands the troops things will look differently.

That is why I think Euron is going to become a major threat for Dany's fleet while she is still at sea. Aegon has no means to prevent her from landing. Euron might, by the time Dany is on the way.

So the guys in the stepstones are pretty much SOL. The Volantenes are going home and there probably isn't anyone to take them to the mainland unless Aurane decides to join Aegon, which is a possibility. Greenstone and Tarth will probably have ships to ferry them over but Estermont has 500 men, and they have to garrison the castle from that. Assuming Tarth falls and is similarly garrisoned, you have another 900 guys or so total. I'm not sure 20K Reachmen are going to quake over another 900 GC soldiers.

Everyone can break. That's not even a remotely possible statement to make. The GC might well have their elephants break their own lines.

Garlan is at Brightwater keep, but he's perfectly capable of moving or joining up with an army coming down from KL. It's really irrelevant though. Only Mace commanding his forces would give them anything but a competent, qualified commander.

Euron might try to be a threat but I can't realistically see him controlling the narrow sea with all those awful storms and cities like Braavos willing and able to crush his fleet. He might well destroy the Redwyne fleet but opposing Dany's crossing is going to be beyond his abilities, especially if Victarion is leading Dany's larger and more battleworthy fleet back to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

So the guys in the stepstones are pretty much SOL. The Volantenes are going home and there probably isn't anyone to take them to the mainland unless Aurane decides to join Aegon, which is a possibility. Greenstone and Tarth will probably have ships to ferry them over but Estermont has 500 men, and they have to garrison the castle from that. Assuming Tarth falls and is similarly garrisoned, you have another 900 guys or so total. I'm not sure 20K Reachmen are going to quake over another 900 GC soldiers.

I'm pretty positive the majority of the Golden Company will arrive in time to deal with the Tyrells. And they might even bring a decent portion of Stormlanders with them. We already see that the men on Cape Wrath are joining Aegon. That trend might continue after he has taken Storm's End.

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Everyone can break. That's not even a remotely possible statement to make. The GC might well have their elephants break their own lines.

Sure, everybody can break. But I'm pretty sure the Tyrell men will break before the Golden Company veterans will. Especially with the elephants around-

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Garlan is at Brightwater keep, but he's perfectly capable of moving or joining up with an army coming down from KL. It's really irrelevant though. Only Mace commanding his forces would give them anything but a competent, qualified commander.

Garlan and Willas are occupied with raising an army to reconquer the Shields. Garlan is not going to drop that to race off to the Stormlands to deal with a problem Mace and Tarly should be able to deal with themselves. Not to mention that this would take him a lot of time. 

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Euron might try to be a threat but I can't realistically see him controlling the narrow sea with all those awful storms and cities like Braavos willing and able to crush his fleet. He might well destroy the Redwyne fleet but opposing Dany's crossing is going to be beyond his abilities, especially if Victarion is leading Dany's larger and more battleworthy fleet back to Westeros.

Euron is only going to defeat the Redwynes if he can use magic against them. Say, by summoning a giant kraken or by creating a dreadful storm that is only/mostly going to affect the Redwyne fleet. Then his people won't have to do all that much fighting. He could later use similar spells against Daenerys' fleet. Magic should come in very handy during those naval battles. But we might even see magic later deciding some land battles. It is supposed to play a bigger role as the story progresses.

[Lost Melnibonean]

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, everybody can break. But I'm pretty sure the Tyrell men will break before the Golden Company veterans will. Especially with the elephants around-

Breaking the lines would not come into it if Tyrell has twice as many men or more. In that case, Tyrell's army could envelope the sellswords. But I am sure the George has snuck something up Jon Connington's sleeve. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Garlan and Willas are occupied with raising an army to reconquer the Shields. Garlan is not going to drop that to race off to the Stormlands to deal with a problem Mace and Tarly should be able to deal with themselves. Not to mention that this would take him a lot of time. 

I suspect you're right. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron is only going to defeat the Redwynes if he can use magic against them. Say, by summoning a giant kraken or by creating a dreadful storm that is only/mostly going to affect the Redwyne fleet. Then his people won't have to do all that much fighting. He could later use similar spells against Daenerys' fleet. Magic should come in very handy during those naval battles. But we might even see magic later deciding some land battles. It is supposed to play a bigger role as the story progresses.

This is so intriguing. We have only hints of such sorcery so far. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm pretty positive the majority of the Golden Company will arrive in time to deal with the Tyrells. And they might even bring a decent portion of Stormlanders with them. We already see that the men on Cape Wrath are joining Aegon. That trend might continue after he has taken Storm's End.

Sure, everybody can break. But I'm pretty sure the Tyrell men will break before the Golden Company veterans will. Especially with the elephants around-

Garlan and Willas are occupied with raising an army to reconquer the Shields. Garlan is not going to drop that to race off to the Stormlands to deal with a problem Mace and Tarly should be able to deal with themselves. Not to mention that this would take him a lot of time. 

Euron is only going to defeat the Redwynes if he can use magic against them. Say, by summoning a giant kraken or by creating a dreadful storm that is only/mostly going to affect the Redwyne fleet. Then his people won't have to do all that much fighting. He could later use similar spells against Daenerys' fleet. Magic should come in very handy during those naval battles. But we might even see magic later deciding some land battles. It is supposed to play a bigger role as the story progresses.

I am not positive at all, and the men of Cape Wrath haven't joined anyone. They've just had their castles seized. Even with Arianne's chapter there's no evidence of that.

Eh the Tyrell men will have the advantage with cavalry -- most of the GC's horses were spread out along with the men -- and numbers. I really doubt they break first unless Mace is in command OR they get completely surprised. At some point Aegon's success is going to come to a complete halt.

Euron isn't going to use magic against anyone's fleet. When have we even seen anything close to magic that can affect that many people/things at once? After 5 books where there's been one deus ex shadowbaby and a buncha parlor tricks masquerading as magic (eg the gendry worms), we're suddenly going to Euron become a fantasy warlock? Maybe he gets a kraken, but Dany has Drogon. I'd be very surprised if Euron even bothers to sail around Dorne.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Breaking the lines would not come into it if Tyrell has twice as many men or more. In that case, Tyrell's army could envelope the sellswords. But I am sure the George has snuck something up Jon Connington's sleeve. 

You have to take the terrain into account. Storm's End is on the other side of the Kingswood so the Tyrell army has to cross the Kingswood first before they can engage the Golden Company. And numbers won't help them all that much if they are attacked in the middle of the forest. George could draw on that battle for some inspiration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Teutoburg_Forest

I'm thinking about the Tyrells being unable to go into formation on the narrow Kingsroad in the middle of the forest, not the battle dragging on for as long as it did, and them marching in so many traps.

But even in a pitched battle the Tyrell cavalry might not be able to use its numerical advantage due to the presence and smell of the elephants. They would not be familiar with such beasts, and their attacks fail the Golden Company could very well turn that to their advantage. Not to mention the superiority of the Golden Company archers under Black Balaq. They could kill half the cavalry or more before they reach the lines of the Golden Company.

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

This is so intriguing. We have only hints of such sorcery so far. 

Well, if Euron isn't going to supposed to end as squid on dry land this magical thing has to play out. And not only for him but possibly also for Cersei, eventually, with the help of Qyburn, Stannis with other spells worked by Mel, and Dany with the help of Moqorro, Quaithe, and Marwyn.

The Hightower and Oldtown might not so easy fall to magical attacks unless the talk about Lord Leyton and the Mad Maid being into magic and consulting books of spells is just talk. I'd not be surprised if the Hightower ships are not going to be affected (or to a smaller degree) by whatever spell Euron is going to use against the Redwynes. If it is a storm (which would be the easiest way to destroy them, I think) then the very fact that the Hightower ships would be on the other side of the 'battlefield' could make it difficult to magically direct it on them. And keep in mind that Euron doesn't have enough ships yet to actually try to take Oldtown by force. Not without heavy losses. Else he should have tried that while he was waiting for the Redwyne fleet.

Also keep in mind that Lord Leyton might have some glass candles in his tower and thus pretty good information what Euron is doing.

There is also a chance that Euron will win some sort of Pyrrhic victory if the storm goes awry or if his Ironborn fools fail to heed his commands to the letter. He would still be a stronger position reputation-wise after such a victory but not necessarily in the position to press his attack on a place like Oldtown.

11 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I am not positive at all, and the men of Cape Wrath haven't joined anyone. They've just had their castles seized. Even with Arianne's chapter there's no evidence of that.

Spoiler

Arianne 2 tells us that the Stormlanders from Weeping Town are joining Connington's forces.

11 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Eh the Tyrell men will have the advantage with cavalry -- most of the GC's horses were spread out along with the men -- and numbers. I really doubt they break first unless Mace is in command OR they get completely surprised. At some point Aegon's success is going to come to a complete halt.

Why should it? There is a prophetic vision that shows the boy being cheered by a crowd. That is likely to happen at KL. After he sits the Iron Throne things can go awry but not before.

11 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Euron isn't going to use magic against anyone's fleet. When have we even seen anything close to magic that can affect that many people/things at once? After 5 books where there's been one deus ex shadowbaby and a buncha parlor tricks masquerading as magic (eg the gendry worms), we're suddenly going to Euron become a fantasy warlock? Maybe he gets a kraken, but Dany has Drogon. I'd be very surprised if Euron even bothers to sail around Dorne.

Again, magic is going to play a larger role. The Others fight with magic, too, you know. They bring cold, winter, and darkness, and they raise the dead. A storm is a natural phenomenon that can still utterly destroy an (enemy) fleet, and we actually no that magic can create storms in Martinworld. Mel conjured up the wind that carried Stannis' fleet to the Wall when she burned Lord Alester Florent.

Spoiler

Euron is going to sacrifice multiple 'holy men' and sorcerers in some kind of magical ritual, it seems. That surely could give enough 'blood magic energy' to create some heavy thunderstorm.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Barristan believes that that thousands, including great lords and noble knights, will flock to the Targaryen banners...

Quote

Ser Barristan went to one knee before her. "My queen, your realm has need of you. You are not wanted here, but in Westeros men will flock to your banners by the thousands, great lords and noble knights. ‘She is come,' they will shout to one another, in glad voices. ‘Prince Rhaegar's sister has come home at last.'"

Daenerys III, Dance 16

If Barristan is right, and if Aegon’s claim is believed, we should expect that at least a few lords will rally to his cause. Of course, some fervent Targaryen supporters might desert him if they learn that he is the Blackfyre.

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Barristan believes that that thousands, including great lords and noble knights, will flock to the Targaryen banners...

Daenerys III, Dance 16

If Barristan is right, and if Aegon’s claim is believed, we should expect that at least a few lords will rally to his cause.

It is difficult to say whether he is right or not but it is quite clear that there are many Targaryen loyalists still everywhere from Dorne to the Wall. The fate of the Targaryen family is even a topic worthy of discussion in an inn in White Harbor. We have Targaryen loyalists in the Crownlands, the Reach, the Riverlands, and possibly even the Vale, the West, and the North. And obviously in Dorne.

Aegon's problem will be to prove that he is Rhaegar's son and not some impostor. Success in the field is the only way to do so. If he wins, he his a Targaryen and people will flock to his banner, if he loses he is an impostor.

15 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Of course, some fervent Targaryen supporters might desert him if they learn that he is the Blackfyre.

Nobody believed the story that Cersei's children were not Robert's - or if people believed it then it did not influence their political decisions. People won't care whether Aegon is a Targaryen or Blackfyre, people will care whether Aegon is who he says he is - Rhaegar's son - or whether he is an impostor.

The Blackfyre cause is dead. That is the very reason why Aegon isn't presented as a Blackfyre but rather as a Targaryen prince (assuming he is not Rhaegar's son).

[Lost Melnibonean]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Blackfyre cause is dead. 

Or not...

Quote

The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It's home they want, as much as gold.

The Soiled Knight, Feast 13

Quote

"The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east."

Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. "I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities."

"Myr." Illyrio smirked. "Contracts can be broken."

"There is more coin in cheese than I knew," said Tyrion. "How did you accomplish that?"

The magister waggled his fat fingers. "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more."

The dwarf pondered that. The Golden Company was reputedly the finest of the free companies, founded a century ago by Bittersteel, a bastard son of Aegon the Unworthy. When another of Aegon's Great Bastards tried to seize the Iron Throne from his trueborn half-brother, Bittersteel joined the revolt. Daemon Blackfyre had perished on the Redgrass Field, however, and his rebellion with him. Those followers of the Black Dragon who survived the battle yet refused to bend the knee fled across the narrow sea, among them Daemon's younger sons, Bittersteel, and hundreds of landless lords and knights who soon found themselves forced to sell their swords to eat. Some joined the Ragged Standard, some the Second Sons or Maiden's Men. Bittersteel saw the strength of House Blackfyre scattering to the four winds, so he formed the Golden Company to bind the exiles together. From that day to this, the men of the Golden Company had lived and died in the Disputed Lands, fighting for Myr or Lys or Tyrosh in their pointless little wars, and dreaming of the land their fathers had lost. They were exiles and sons of exiles, dispossessed and unforgiven … yet formidable fighters still.

"I admire your powers of persuasion," Tyrion told Illyrio. "How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?"

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre." The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. "And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

Tyrion II, Dance 5

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Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him. 

Daenerys III, Dance 16

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"Those chests we brought you," he said as they were chewing. "Gold for the Golden Company, I thought at first, until I saw Ser Rolly hoist a chest onto one shoulder. If it were full of coin, he could never have lifted it so easily."

Tyrion III, Dance 8

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All the skulls were grinning, even Bittersteel's on the tall pike in the center. What does he have to grin about? He died defeated and alone, a broken man in an alien land. On his deathbed, Ser Aegor Rivers had famously commanded his men to boil the flesh from his skull, dip it in gold, and carry it before them when they crossed the sea to retake Westeros. His successors had followed his example.

The Lost Lord, Dance 24

Daenerys has not taken Bittersteel's men home. Aegon has. 

[Lord Varys]

It is dead in Westeros. What the Golden Company believe is irrelevant. They are serving a Targaryen prince, so Westeros is going to believe that he is a Targaryen prince. Or not.

But if they are not nobody is going to turn against Aegon because he is 'a Blackfyre'. They might turn on him because he is an impostor, a fake, a false Targaryen, not because he is a Blackfyre descendant.

The fact that the Golden Company accompanies Aegon could easily cause Arianne and others to suspect that he might be a Blackfyre descendant of unknown origins. However, if the boy is going to have any success that idea cannot gain any ground in Westeros, and Dany later on might have reasons to dismiss Aegon as a fake but the important point there will be that he is a fake not that he is Blackfyre.

And for the hundredth time: The Blackfyres themselves are dead, too. House Blackfyre is extinct, and since Aegon is not female he is as much a Blackfyre as Robb is a Tully, Mace a Redwyne, Catelyn a Whent, Rhaenyra an Arryn, Robert a Targaryen, or Dany a Blackwood.

He might be a Mopatis and a distant descendant of Daemon Blackfyre but that is not the same as him being a Blackfyre.