At What Point Did Roose Bolton Decide to Betray Robb

[Maxxine]

So I'm not convinced that this was his plan from the very beginning. But I can't figure out when exactly he made this decision. I haven't exactly figured out the timeline. My guess is that he decided right after Robb married Jeyne. For me, it doesn't make sense that he would do this before is point because Robb was essentially winning. He definitely wouldn't initiate the plan imo.

What does everyone else think? Is there any evidence that I'm missing? I'm aware of the Duskendale thing so obviously it was determined well the Red Wedding but other than that what else?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

A Clash of Kings chapter 64. This chapter Roose learns first that the Tyrells have allied with the Crown, they have won on the Blackwater and Stannis defeated and then later in the chapter of the Robb's betrayal of the Freys.

"Had Stannis won, all might have been different," Ronel Rivers said wistfully. He was one of Lord Walder's bastards.

"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."

"And who will tell him so?" Roose Bolton smiled. "It is a fine thing to have so many valiant brothers in such troubled times. I shall think on all you've said."

Now this is actually before news of Robb's wedding reaches him (that is a bit later in this chapter). After he says the above we learn that he has gone hunting for Wolves (symbolism right there) and he orders Glover and Tallhart to Duskendale.

[dariopatke]

I am very much convinced that Roose didnt plan this from the beggining and that he would have been loyal bannerman and probably in Robbs small council if things had gone otherwise. But there is only one thing that keep bothering me, the battle of Green fork. If I am in his position I would send to battle man who are not mine, but why was there a battle at all? He could raid their camp on night with 20 good men just to show Lannisters that he is here and keep retreating if they come at him, if he cant run anymore he can easily do what he did at Green fork and run away. Eventually with good coordination with Robbs army he might even defeat Tywin by setting him some kind of trap. Also I believe Tyrion wondered before battle why did Northeners march entire night to attack because they are exausted while Lannisters are eager for battle.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I am very much convinced that Roose didnt plan this from the beggining and that he would have been loyal bannerman and probably in Robbs small council if things had gone otherwise. But there is only one thing that keep bothering me, the battle of Green fork. If I am in his position I would send to battle man who are not mine, but why was there a battle at all? He could raid their camp on night with 20 good men just to show Lannisters that he is here and keep retreating if they come at him, if he cant run anymore he can easily do what he did at Green fork and run away. Eventually with good coordination with Robbs army he might even defeat Tywin by setting him some kind of trap. Also I believe Tyrion wondered before battle why did Northeners march entire night to attack because they are exausted while Lannisters are eager for battle.

He had minimal cavalry, but yes he could have used them to harass the Lannisters. And "betraying" Robb in such a fashion would not have been possible given such a command was given more or less at the last minute. GRRM kind of answered this: http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Roose_Bolton

 

[John Doe]

He could raid their camp on night with 20 good men

I hope you're not serious.

[Hugorfonics]

A Clash of Kings chapter 64. This chapter Roose learns first that the Tyrells have allied with the Crown, they have won on the Blackwater and Stannis defeated and then later in the chapter of the Robb's betrayal of the Freys.

"Had Stannis won, all might have been different," Ronel Rivers said wistfully. He was one of Lord Walder's bastards.

"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."

"And who will tell him so?" Roose Bolton smiled. "It is a fine thing to have so many valiant brothers in such troubled times. I shall think on all you've said."

Now this is actually before news of Robb's wedding reaches him (that is a bit later in this chapter). After he says the above we learn that he has gone hunting for Wolves (symbolism right there) and he orders Glover and Tallhart to Duskendale.

word. This is also around the same time Theon asks Ramsay to reinforce Winterfell, it's probable that Ramsay's take on the conditions of Winterfell motivated Roose. 

 Though I wonder if Ramsay simply informed his father of his plans, or requested approval? Surely the miller's boys were unknown to Roose, but I doubt Hornwood was.

 

[James Steller]

Roose Bolton was always thinking of betraying Robb. His disastrous battle at the Green Fork proved that. He is picked because he won't just recklessly rush into battle like the Greatjon. And what does he do? Marches his men all night to charge at a well prepared Lannister position. And notice how even though the Northmen lost thousands in casualties, his own men remained more or less intact. And that never changes throughout the war. Plus Ramsay was wreaking havoc long before the tide turned against Robb. The Boltons were always on the lookout to finally defeat the Starks and wipe them out.

Honestly, Robb should never have let Roose out of his sights. Put Robett Glover in command, or Rickard Karstark. Roose Bolton needed to be kept on as tight of a leash as the Greatjon. And preferably chained next to him so that he thinks twice before doing anything against Robb.

[dariopatke]

He had minimal cavalry, but yes he could have used them to harass the Lannisters. And "betraying" Robb in such a fashion would not have been possible given such a command was given more or less at the last minute. GRRM kind of answered this: http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Roose_Bolton

 

Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour.

I had a feeling that he wanted to lose, he could have moved more stealth (there must be anyone who can help him with enemy scouts like Brynden for Robb ) because Lannisters were waiting him in formation and they cant get dressed up and in their position in 15 minutes. Lannisters had a lot of knights and Roose barely had cavalry, so if he wanted to win that battle, he sould have had some genius plan and this one was good but not enough for victory.

But like GRRM said, if he won he would be a hero, if I was Robb I would even give Sansa to Ramsay if Roose captured Tywin, Kevan and Tyrion. That whole thing seems really off to me.

I hope you're not serious.

Just a reference from show , but he seriously could do some guerilla just to keep him distracted untill Robb arrives. If it comes to battle, he could just do what he did and run.

[John Doe]

Just a reference from show ,

I tried to forget.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I had a feeling that he wanted to lose,

Of course he didn't want to lose, planning on losing puts his own life in danger. He was commanded to give battle and this is just what he did.

Robb needed Tywin's army to be engaged as it was possible that Jaime's scouts would not have been so useless, that Jaime would not have been idiotic enough to charge into the unknown, that the Lannister troops at Riverrun would organize themselves better and make a better showing, that Edmure and the other highborn prisoners would not be freed so easily that Tytos and the remnants of the Riverrun army would not be so effective against the enemy.

Basically Robb's plan was spectacularly well executed, that his side was perfect and Jaime side capitulated a little to easily and the battle was over in no time. But Robb would have considered that it could have been harder and took longer to win. He needed Tywin's army (especially his cavalry) busy so he needed Roose to march through the night and he needed them to engage and keep them occupied.

[Wavey Sauce]

Once he realized that Robb was going to lose them the war and get them all killed. I think him marrying Jeyne was the last straw, but all the times Robb ignored his advice for sure added up to it

[Wavey Sauce]

I hope you're not serious.

Pretty obvious he is kidding and making fun of the show

[John Doe]

 

Pretty obvious he is kidding and making fun of the show

Indeed.

[dariopatke]

Of course he didn't want to lose, planning on losing puts his own life in danger. He was commanded to give battle and this is just what he did.

Robb needed Tywin's army to be engaged as it was possible that Jaime's scouts would not have been so useless, that Jaime would not have been idiotic enough to charge into the unknown, that the Lannister troops at Riverrun would organize themselves better and make a better showing, that Edmure and the other highborn prisoners would not be freed so easily that Tytos and the remnants of the Riverrun army would not be so effective against the enemy.

Basically Robb's plan was spectacularly well executed, that his side was perfect and Jaime side capitulated a little to easily and the battle was over in no time. But Robb would have considered that it could have been harder and took longer to win. He needed Tywin's army (especially his cavalry) busy so he needed Roose to march through the night and he needed them to engage and keep them occupied.

I know that he didnt want to lose, it would be idiotic, but part of me feels that something is off the hook there. He could keep Tywin engaged by teasing him and not by confronting him full scale on area that suits for Lannister knights. Also night march is risky because if it fails he is in troubke because of exausted army and Roose deosnt seem like guy that would gamble when risk is big. Perhaps I overrate his military skills.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I know that he didnt want to lose, it would be idiotic, but part of me feels that something is off the hook there.

He is just following orders. Robb needed his foot to engage, that was always the plan. He knew that there would be casualties.

Had Roose deviated or somehow performed worse than expected then Robb would have changed commander, he would have shown anger (like he does towards Glover after Duskendale).

 

He could keep Tywin engaged by teasing him and not by confronting him full scale on area that suits for Lannister knights.

This takes time and planning, which Roose (and Robb) does not have. All it takes is one of Jaime's scouts to cotton on what is happening and to request help from Tywin.

Also night march is risky because if it fails he is in troubke because of exausted army and Roose deosnt seem like guy that would gamble when risk is big. Perhaps I overrate his military skills.

Of course a night march is risky but they had little choice. The two battles had to take place around the same time to be effective. Tywin sending his cavalry to Riverrun could have ended his war.

Arguments like this are using the benefit of hindsight but it was more than possible that the Battle of the Whispering Wood and the Battle of the Camps could have had different outcomes or even taken longer. Robb was making sure that Tywin was too preoccupied to have reacted and help to his son in the case that Jaime performed a little better.

Making battle plans sometimes requires planning for all variables, sometimes things will not go according to plan. It was fantastic that it did, but preparing for the worst had to be done.

[dariopatke]

You make good point there and I think that WW was executed perfectly, GF could have gone a little better, I know that there was no time but this one is oretty simple frontal march, I always thought that Roose is among better comanders in Westeros and could have done in with less casualities, if Greatjon led army I would keep my mouth shout, but this is Roose and I expect more. I just hope that he isnt much more succesful with Stannis though I like them both.

[Nevets]

My guess is that the loss of Winterfell, combined with Stannis's loss at Blackwater, convinced Roose that he was on the losing side, and that Robb was doomed and couldn't win.  Robb's marriage to Jeyne Westerling meant that the Freys were extremely angry with Robb, providing the opportunity for a final betrayal.  But the one-two punch of Winterfell and Blackwater is probably what did it.

[Ser Frasier of House Crane]

I don't think he ever intended to be fully loyal to Robb, but if the boy had proven to be a worthy and wise king who wasn't so impetuous, he might never have turned cloak.

[Blackfyre Bastard]

Let's not forget the Frey connection. While stuck on the Trident during Tywin's control of Harrenhal, Roose marries Fat Walda. He then relies heavily on Frey men, and there were Freys all around him and all over Harrenhal when Roose takes it from the Lannisters. Even if Roose hadn't want to betray Robb after the latter's marrying Jeyne Westerling, the presence of so many Freys would have compelled him to do it .

Just to clarify, in the last sentence I'm not saying he didn't want to betray Robb, I'm saying that his particular relation to the Freys piled on the amount of reasons he already had.

[redtree]

When he heard Tyrell had joined Lannister army right ? Robb had slim chance of winning and then Jeyne happened, 5% changed to 0%