Heresy 181

[Black Crow]

Anent the Long Night/Long Winter. Some time ago we discussed the likelihood that that Westeros actually has normal seasons but that they are governed by just two great seasons. Thus rather than wall to wall snow for years on end a Winter, while initially heralded by extremely bad weather and perhaps even darkness, would be characterised by long hard winters, late cold wet springs and summers and early tempestuous autumns, while a Summer would open with a bright spring followed by a hot dry Indian summer, a golden autumn and a mild, dry winter.

[Melifeather]

Nice! I hadn't made that connection, but I like it! There is also a passage somewhere, I think at Craster's on the way back, that Edd says something along the lines of if they find a way to resurrect us, we'll have to man the Wall forever, which also seems to be pretty strong foreshadowing in support of an undead NW. 

I wish Westeros had a like button, because I really love Dolorous Edd! Stuck watching the Wall forever as a flaming meteorite scarecrow!

 

[Melifeather]

I follow you - the timeline makes sense on its own - but there is too much evidence that the celestial actions already happened once. First, we did have a prolonged darkness, of the type which is created by large comet or meteor impacts. Second, we have eleven different myths which may involve or do involve something falling from heaven in the ancient past. Third, we have the greasy black stone. Fourth, we seem to have had a cultural reset in the ancient past, both in Westeros and throughout the world. Clearly, a global disaster occurred. 

So, what I see is that the astronomy of the Lon Night disaster created the initial pattern, and that pattern has then been manifesting all over the place ever since. But the initial forging of Lightbringer, the comet striking the second moon, IS the master template. Every other manifestation of the pattern refers back to that - at least that's how I see it. But what we might need from Jon will be not yet another repetetition, but something that breaks the cycle, perhaps. Possibly an inversion it reversal of the pattern. It's actually pretty wide open, but I don't expect him to necessarily repeat the evil deeds of Azor Ahai.

I mean, consider the dream with the burning sword. This is Jon staring the legacy of Azor Ahai full in the face, finding out what it means to be AA. It means you murder your love and your sibling and everyone else important to you. It's a nightmare. I think one of the reasons Jon has this dream is to give him a clue about what it means to embrace involuntary blood sacrifice, blood magic, etc. It's a dark road, and it's unclear how far Jon will go down it. He's already shown a disturbing pattern of being forced to do things he finds morally deplorable because they may serve the greater good - how far will this go, I wonder? 

Yes, I agree there was a prolonged darkness, but like I had stated before the original Long Night wasn't a literal darkness but a darkness of the human heart...the desire to do bad. The falling moon chunks likely did cause another couple years of darkness as a side effect of debris flying back up into the atmosphere, etc. There must have been a whole lot of flooding as well, leading to the other mythos of the various places spread across Westeros. Moat Caitlin was likely destroyed by some moon chunks. The Iron Islands were likely created by some moon chunks as well. The two swords Ice and Dawn would have been taken up after the fact and stories of their origins rose as well.  But, I think if you reexamine some of the myths that come to your mind, they would be explained as taking place after the moon chunks fell and not before.

As for Jon...he already "allowed" Yrgritte's death, he dreamed Robb's death, and he allowed the wildlings through the Wall thinking it was necessary, but it will lead to the destruction of the Nights Watch, and he will be reprising the role of Azor Ahai. If my theory that the wildlings are the Others proves true, then he's gathered them all together and it should be easier to wipe them out in their entirety. The Children likely had a role in helping defeat the Others the first time around and helped with the building of the Wall, but their actions allowed for survivors. Maybe they realize that they should have just killed them all the first time and now seek to rectify that situation? Then the Wall does need to come down since it's purpose was to keep the ice magic behind a warded barrier so that it couldn't used to attack Westeros, but now that the Others are already on the other side, they all need to be killed, and the Wall needs to come down before Westeros can return to normal.

 

[MaesterSam]

 

Yes, I agree there was a prolonged darkness, but like I had stated before the original Long Night wasn't a literal darkness but a darkness of the human heart...the desire to do bad. The falling moon chunks likely did cause another couple years of darkness as a side effect of debris flying back up into the atmosphere, etc. There must have been a whole lot of flooding as well, leading to the other mythos of the various places spread across Westeros. Moat Caitlin was likely destroyed by some moon chunks. The Iron Islands were likely created by some moon chunks as well. The two swords Ice and Dawn would have been taken up after the fact and stories of their origins rose as well.  But, I think if you reexamine some of the myths that come to your mind, they would be explained as taking place after the moon chunks fell and not before.

As for Jon...he already "allowed" Yrgritte's death, he dreamed Robb's death, and he allowed the wildlings through the Wall thinking it was necessary, but it will lead to the destruction of the Nights Watch, and he will be reprising the role of Azor Ahai. If my theory that the wildlings are the Others proves true, then he's gathered them all together and it should be easier to wipe them out in their entirety. The Children likely had a role in helping defeat the Others the first time around and helped with the building of the Wall, but their actions allowed for survivors. Maybe they realize that they should have just killed them all the first time and now seek to rectify that situation? Then the Wall does need to come down since it's purpose was to keep the ice magic behind a warded barrier so that it couldn't used to attack Westeros, but now that the Others are already on the other side, they all need to be killed, and the Wall needs to come down before Westeros can return to normal.

 

I am liking this "moon chunks" theory. In the case of Moat Cailin, the chunks themselves would have conveniently disappeared into the swamp long ago, so their absence is not a problem. 

I slightly disagree on the Iron Islands. I do think the moon chunks could have created them, but not by forming new islands but by flooding and fragmenting existing land (think Valyria but non-violent) and ending with a few broken islands. This would work well with an idea that just came to me: what if the second moon, the one that is no longer in the sky... actually crashed down to the planet? Now, this moon and planetos would obviously have to have a different size ratio than Earth has with its moon, otherwise nothing would have survived. But if a large part of the moon landed in an ocean, for example, this would displace considerable amounts of water, thereby permanently flooding low-lying areas. This would have given us the Stepstones, the Iron Islands, and the swampy Neck. The other cool possibility then would be that the moon brought its own life with it. In other words- maybe the dragons really, literally came from the moon! Not all moons have to be lifeless like ours, this one could have had diverse ecosystems and all sorts of cool magical creatures using the black stone to drink energy. And the crash delivered them to planetos. 

As for a link to the LN, the severe disruptions in ocean currents would have wreaked havoc on the climate, and combined with the ash and rock in the air would have caused a nuclear winter. 

It feels a little too sci-fi for this series, but I would love it nonetheless- and it would be another example of commonly dismissed stories actually being true. 

 

[PrettyPig]

I suppose the original event (moon cracking) could have created debris that are now orbiting Planetos. Every so often, a piece enters the atmosphere, appearing as a comet. When it hits somewhere, the particles it sends into the atmosphere darken the world and increase the length and severity of winters. (I agree with you, by the way, about the LN most likely not lasting a generation. Nobody would have survived that. Even 5 years of true darkness are virtually unsurvivable, if we assume the average Westerosi stores up enough food for a 2-year winter, which seems to be what they shoot for. So there is probably some exaggeration involved).

Popping in briefly while I can actually navigate this place for a quick howdy (and thanks to all those who read/enjoyed my Marvelous theory) - if I can ever find a browser that works reliably/consistently, I hope to return in full force. 

Amyway, re: the above.....just pointing out that while a generation of darkness is absolutely unrealistic for human (or warg, or dragon, or fire shadow, etc etc) survival,  humans proved absolutely capable of surviving a different major event brought on by drastic climatic change:  

An ice age.  

In real-world example, obviously early Homo sapiens sapiens (and to an extent, Homo sapiens neanderthalensis) managed to power through thousands of years of bitter cold, limited food sources, and advancing glaciers, and even our Medieval European forebears dealt with the same to an extent starting around the 14th century in what was known as the Little Ice Age.    One particular item of note re: the LIA is that it wasn't consistently cold, but cyclically cold.....with three (note the magic number) distinct periods of extreme cold and extended duration occurring about 100ish years apart from 1600s to 1800s.   Coincidence?  Maybe...or maybe not.    Something else interesting about this is that the artwork created during these periods primarily reflects the winter landscape:  cloudy, barren, and often dark. 

Anyway, not going to be a human Google here, but you can look up the LIA if you're interested in the patterning.   Might be worth a change in thought direction, moving away from a nuclear winter scenario and more toward an ice age/interglacial paradigm.

 

[LmL]

I am liking this "moon chunks" theory. In the case of Moat Cailin, the chunks themselves would have conveniently disappeared into the swamp long ago, so their absence is not a problem. 

I slightly disagree on the Iron Islands. I do think the moon chunks could have created them, but not by forming new islands but by flooding and fragmenting existing land (think Valyria but non-violent) and ending with a few broken islands. This would work well with an idea that just came to me: what if the second moon, the one that is no longer in the sky... actually crashed down to the planet? Now, this moon and planetos would obviously have to have a different size ratio than Earth has with its moon, otherwise nothing would have survived. But if a large part of the moon landed in an ocean, for example, this would displace considerable amounts of water, thereby permanently flooding low-lying areas. This would have given us the Stepstones, the Iron Islands, and the swampy Neck. The other cool possibility then would be that the moon brought its own life with it. In other words- maybe the dragons really, literally came from the moon! Not all moons have to be lifeless like ours, this one could have had diverse ecosystems and all sorts of cool magical creatures using the black stone to drink energy. And the crash delivered them to planetos. 

As for a link to the LN, the severe disruptions in ocean currents would have wreaked havoc on the climate, and combined with the ash and rock in the air would have caused a nuclear winter. 

It feels a little too sci-fi for this series, but I would love it nonetheless- and it would be another example of commonly dismissed stories actually being true. 

 

The sea dragon of the Grey King legend drowns whole islands - if a meteor is a dragon, then a sea dragon is a moon meteor. Moon meteors are what drown islands, not actual sea dragons. The Grey King al;so talks of a lightning bolt which he used to steal the fire of the gods. Stealing the fire of the gods is what the Bloodstone Emperor was all about, stealing the moon right out of the sky. The Hammer of the Waters, which flooded the neck and broke the arm of Dorne, I al so believe to be a moon meteor. Moon meteors are really sun-spears - and there broken arm lies next to sunspear. The moon was broken by the Bloodstone Emperor Azor Ahai (I say they are the same person), and there's a island named "Bloodstone" in the Stepstones.  The Durran Godsgrief myth - more stealing from the gods in that one - tells of a deadly tsunami which raged up the narrow sea. That's probably the one which was triggered when a moon meteor struck the arm of Dorne, the one which also flooded the neck. 

[LmL]

Popping in briefly while I can actually navigate this place for a quick howdy (and thanks to all those who read/enjoyed my Marvelous theory) - if I can ever find a browser that works reliably/consistently, I hope to return in full force. 

Amyway, re: the above.....just pointing out that while a generation of darkness is absolutely unrealistic for human (or warg, or dragon, or fire shadow, etc etc) survival,  humans proved absolutely capable of surviving a different major event brought on by drastic climatic change:  

An ice age.  

In real-world example, obviously early Homo sapiens sapiens (and to an extent, Homo sapiens neanderthalensis) managed to power through thousands of years of bitter cold, limited food sources, and advancing glaciers, and even our Medieval European forebears dealt with the same to an extent starting around the 14th century in what was known as the Little Ice Age.    One particular item of note re: the LIA is that it wasn't consistently cold, but cyclically cold.....with three (note the magic number) distinct periods of extreme cold and extended duration occurring about 100ish years apart from 1600s to 1800s.   Coincidence?  Maybe...or maybe not.    Something else interesting about this is that the artwork created during these periods primarily reflects the winter landscape:  cloudy, barren, and often dark. 

Anyway, not going to be a human Google here, but you can look up the LIA if you're interested in the patterning.   Might be worth a change in thought direction, moving away from a nuclear winter scenario and more toward an ice age/interglacial paradigm.

 

The Younger Dryas 1,000 mini ice age seems to have been triggered by a comet which broke into multiple pieces and impacted the north american and european ice sheets, says new research. Graham Hancock's new book is all about that.  There are a bunch of corresponding Native American myths about the star with a long white tail which burnt up the whole sky and made a different world after it was gone, legends about a great snake, etc.  It's really spot on  to how George has done it, with his talk of Azor Ahai cracking the moon by forging Lightbringer and the moon cracking to pour forth dragons. The sea dragon thing too - it's all the same idea. 

[PrettyPig]

Yup  - a reason I think it's worth reexamining the Long Night in a New Light - a developing system that is survivable with some slow adaptation rather than some kind of wacky mass non-extinction event, like a 6-mile-wide meteor or chunk of planet slamming into the Yucatan but only giving the dinosaurs a sunburn.  

I mean, granted, it's a fantasy series and GRRM does what he wants, but when we talk about a bitter and neverending winter that some lucky folk managed to survive and continue on with their Darwinistic principles unabated, I think "glaciers".

 

 

 

[LmL]

Yup  - a reason I think it's worth reexamining the Long Night in a New Light - a developing system that is survivable with some slow adaptation rather than some kind of wacky mass non-extinction event, like a 6-mile-wide meteor or chunk of planet slamming into the Yucatan but only giving the dinosaurs a sunburn.  

I mean, granted, it's a fantasy series and GRRM does what he wants, but when we talk about a bitter and neverending winter that some lucky folk managed to survive and continue on with their Darwinistic principles unabated, I think "glaciers".

 

 

 

The Long Night basically seams like a condensed, magical version of an ice age combined with a nuclear-winter / comet scenario. I think it was an extinction event - probably, only a few people survived. There seems to be a total disruption to culture all around the world around the LN, followed by new civilizations popping up in the centuries that followed. I think it's likely that the cotf helped the FM survive, and that that is why the FM took up their religion. 

[wolfmaid7]

It can, but in either event the conflict will remain. I can certainly see Jon's dream as reflecting an inward conflict between ice and fire, but its unquestionably a conflict and ultimately a destructive one rather than a "restoration" of balance.

On the whole therefore I remain inclined to expect the conflict [and the eventual balance] to be brought about by two separate characters rather than one conflicted individual - why else do we have Danaerys the Dragonlord?

I agree with this it all depends on where GRRM chooses to go with. I'm not too much on a restorative balance because from the context of the current story it doesn't matter.For how many years the current characters have been used to whacky seasons they've known nothing else and foolishly praying for a Summer that never ends which is just as bad as a winter that never ends.They are so out of tune with their environment they are unable to grasp that .So to me true balance will come when man's innerself is at peace with his environment.You need a person in the seat that is for all the realms and that will be reflective outwardly with a balanced season across the equinoxes.

Conflict is good its neccessary in nature but that in itself is ordered and sadly i dont think the GS now get that.

There are actually three different foreshadowings of Jon having something to do with taking down the Wall, an event which seems connected to the fall of the new Long Night. One of these days I need to put them together in a post. Naturally, I think some meteors will be involved, but that's beside the point, as they would only be a mechanism. The important thing is that that Wall is coming down, a new LN is coming, and Jon will somehow be right in the middle of it. 

I think the fundamental problem with this is that the LN is the problem.It was a symptom of a deeper problem just the same as if it would have an endless summer.Winter is just beginning and the great thing about this is though its slated to be a long one it may not be depending on the outcome of who gets to rule the seasons.If you have a GS(s) with selfish agendas yeah you'll probably continue in the same vein. That is the sweet thing about this because you have no clue who is going to end up on top.

[Scorpion92]

All this talk of comets give me a hypothetical question: during the new Long Night where the chunks of the second moon will hit the Planetos?

For some odd reason, I think Lorath and Braavos are two Free Cities which will not be conquered by Daenerys and her gigantic khalasar. Every other city or town west of Bone Mountains (invluding Qarth) will be conquered and erased by Dothrakis and Dany/Drogon, coupled with the spread of diseases and greyscale across Essos, while more and more masses of Essosi people will convert to R'hillor and regard Dany as Azor Ahai reborn and follow her to Westeros as the third wave of mass migration after previous First Men and Andals (which will have tremendous impact on Westeros' endgame demographics and completely new social structure).

My point is do you think there is a textual foreshadowing for Braavos to be hit by a meteor and the city's association with death (Faceless Men and "Valar Morghulis")? For some reason I believe Faceless Men's whole story point will be installing its view and values on Arya forever in order to mold her the way George sees it, then get rid of them. The only thing that can destroy Faceless Men is a natural disaster happening in Braavos.

Another place I can see being struck by flood and tsunami are Iron Islands. I think Theon's future storyline will somehow parallel Moses' storyline with Jews in Egypt. After Euron and Victarion's fiasco in Oldtown and Essos respectively, ironborn will be defeated in spirit and will turn to Drowned God and its chief priest, Aeron Damphair, for answers.

When Theon comes back, I believe he will be an agent of Old Gods (Bran) and will have a serious confrontation with his uncle Aeron mainly on religious grounds, and many ironborn will oppose Theon initially, who will warn them that if they do not change their ironborn ways of reaving, they will be doomed by true gods (Old Gods).

But when the Long Night comes, there will be second Hammer of Waters, this time on Iron Isles, which will drown (the irony) majority of population and the islands itself, probably including Aeron himself. This catastrophe will make ironborn to accept Theon and Old Gods as their own and migrate, you guessed it, to the North, specifically Cape Kraken (Promised Land).

And ironborn's saying of "what is dead may never die, but rises again harder and stronger" literally applies to Jon if you think about jt. I think through Theon and Bran survived ironborn will accept Jon as their king. I think that is the whole purpose of Theon being raised in Winterfell with Stark kids, so he can lead ironborn to the North (mainland) and make them bend the knee to Stark king and worship Old Gods.

What do you guys think?

[Black Crow]

Yup  - a reason I think it's worth reexamining the Long Night in a New Light - a developing system that is survivable with some slow adaptation rather than some kind of wacky mass non-extinction event, like a 6-mile-wide meteor or chunk of planet slamming into the Yucatan but only giving the dinosaurs a sunburn.  

I mean, granted, it's a fantasy series and GRRM does what he wants, but when we talk about a bitter and neverending winter that some lucky folk managed to survive and continue on with their Darwinistic principles unabated, I think "glaciers".

 

 

 

I agree and the scenario I painted in the post at the top of this page was heavily based on what we know of historical Little Ice Ages. The Long Night was just a big one, probably involving a significant [but temporary] enlargement of the polar ice cap and consequent displacement of population - probably leading to more dying through disease and fighting than by freezing. Its interesting that in the World Book we have that story of the Others being a Northern tribe coming south. Whether or not the story will turn out to be literally true as to the origin of the white walkers remains to be seen, but its a scenario which would have been typical of the time

As you say this is GRRM's story and he can do what he wants, starting obviously enough with the magic and his statement that the dodgy seasons have a magical rather than a physical cause - which I've always taken to mean that the world is as it is simply because the story needs it to be so don't ask me for a scientific explanation which some fool is bound to dispute anyway.

[Melifeather]

The Long Night basically seams like a condensed, magical version of an ice age combined with a nuclear-winter / comet scenario. I think it was an extinction event - probably, only a few people survived. There seems to be a total disruption to culture all around the world around the LN, followed by new civilizations popping up in the centuries that followed. I think it's likely that the cotf helped the FM survive, and that that is why the FM took up their religion. 

The Last Hero mythos does touch on the bolded above, and the origins of "guest right". The CoTF were hunkered down in their caves waiting the Long Night out, but when the Last Hero found them they were obligated to help him.

 

[Melifeather]

Whether the Long Night was caused by or ended by moon meteors or if there was an ice age or not, I think the Others are going to turn out to be regular humans. I think GRRM has tried to keep the story relatively normal and realistic and kept the fantasy part minimal. I think the point is that in real life we have our own native mythos based on actual events. And the way to keep the history alive was to create stories about them and elevating nature and natural events into gods.

[Black Crow]

Whether the Long Night was caused by or ended by moon meteors or if there was an ice age or not, I think the Others are going to turn out to be regular humans. I think GRRM has tried to keep the story relatively normal and realistic and kept the fantasy part minimal. I think the point is that in real life we have our own native mythos based on actual events. And the way to keep the history alive was to create stories about them and elevating nature and natural events into gods.

Depends. I certainly agree that the reason why we have the two terms rather than just referring as the mummers version does only to the White Walkers is that the Others is a deliberately vague term which will eventually be revealed as encompassing the three-fingered tree-huggers, Craster's boys and their human allies,

[Lady Dyanna]

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!

[wolfmaid7]

Happy New Year Heretics ....Hugs all around.

[Morrigan's Raven]

Sorry this is off topic, but I just had this weird thought and wanted to get some opinions. Ok, here goes: 

How sure are we that Rickard Stark is dead?

Now hear me out.. [emoji6] . Rickard was roasted alive in his full armor - which by the end was glowing red hot. This tells us two things: first, nobody saw his face during the execution, and second, that at those temperatures, inside glowing metal, the body would not  have been recognizable afterward. 

We have an interesting parallel in the present day, with "Mance's" execution by fire. Except that fRickard wouldn't even have needed a glamor. 

It would also explain something that's been bothering me ever since I first read it: After Jaime has his under-Casterly-Rock dream, he thinks of Ned and the heart tree, and of Ned giving him the icy look in the throne room. Then he says to himself, It wasn't him. It was never him! Which, to me, always sounded like there was some kind of a misunderstanding involved back then. 

I don't have a great theory on why Rickard would fake his death- although a smart man might simply send an impersonator to a meeting with a powerful madman, just in case. So in that case he never intended to fake it, but Aerys unexpectedly killed his double. Of course, since he didn't reappear later on, there must be more to the story. Perhaps Rhaegar needed Rickard's winter king's blood for some ritual and killed him in the process. (So the real Rickard was in KL, but he was used for something else and some poor sot was roasted in his stead). 

Or, the real Rickard was never available to ride to KL. Maybe he was with Lyanna, or he was North of the Wall as Mance, or maybe he is the ghost in Winterfell and was there the whole time. I'm sure we could find him in the story if we were to look for him. [emoji3]

Ooohh. Oh crap, another reread is in order, isn't it?

You look like Stark, says Craster.

[Black Crow]

Happy New Year to all of you.

And a renewed call for expressions of interest in a Heresy bi-centennial project

 

[e1kabong]

Sorry this is off topic, but I just had this weird thought and wanted to get some opinions. Ok, here goes: 

How sure are we that Rickard Stark is dead?

Now hear me out..  . Rickard was roasted alive in his full armor - which by the end was glowing red hot. This tells us two things: first, nobody saw his face during the execution, and second, that at those temperatures, inside glowing metal, the body would not  have been recognizable afterward. 

I can't argue with your logic that it's certainly possible. However, I think it would really be a detriment to the story. I mean, foregoing that there is almost no conceivable motivation for him to fake his death, it would make his son's death kind of a bummer. Rickard not being in the armor means that his son strangled himself trying to save some decoy. If Rickard Stark is the kind of person to decoy out and bail on his son, I highly doubt he would have come down to King's Landing in the first place. Remember, Rickard came after Brandon was arrested.