Update on the "Winds"

[Celestial]

there's another level of "pressure" that I don't think you're considering.   GRRM has already created something brilliant.  While he works towards completing his master work, he is dealing with extremely high expectations from the publishers, the readers and himself.  

This work will be in circulation for as long as human beings are consuming literature.  His legacy will be defined by the quality of these books; not the quality of the show, the punctuality of his delivery of the books, or financial success of the books.  

All of is pessimism just reads like an attempt to justify the impatience everyone is feeling right now.  

With all due respect, GRRM isn't developing the cure for cancer.

This work will be in circulation for as long as human beings are consuming literature.  His legacy will be defined by the quality of these books; not the quality of the show, the punctuality of his delivery of the books, or financial success of the books.  

I live in Eastern Europe. Before the HBO show, NOBODY where I live had ever heard of George Martin. Don't you think that such a titan of literature would have drawn some attention worldwide from more than a small niche of epic fantasy fans?

When GRRM wins a Nobel prize for literature, give me a call.

As for his legacy being defined by these books, you are perfectly right. If everything goes "according to plan", though, which is not a given. As things stand, Martin risks to remain in the history of literature as a cautionary tale against the dangers of overindulgence and overreach. People already expressed many concerns about the series not being finished. But, even if it is, the HBO issue is already starting to cast a shadow over it. By now, it is obvious HBO will tell the story before him and it is also obvious that this stung Martin. I can already hear the ironies, whether Game of Thrones is the adaptation of ASOIF or ASOIF the novelization of Game of Thrones.

[Celestial]

Martin never "rambles" but the density of the text is so much greater in AGOT than in AFFC and ADWD. There's much, much more crucial information per page jammed in. There are parts of both AFFC and ADWD that are wonderful and grow on me every time I reread them, but they are rather airy compared to AGOT.

The problem with AFFC and ADWD  isn't the quality of the text. This is after all a subjective opinion upon no definitive conclusion can be reached. As far as I'm concerned, Cersei's chapters in AFFC were my favorites in ASOIF (because I loved to see her crash and burn).

The problem is that Martin basically stopped seeing the forest because of the trees. If you wish to expand your story and add more detail, you need to be very careful that your new additions don't make the overall project become unfeasible. Unfortunately, ASOIF seems to be headed in that direction. The constant delays and missed deadlines of the last 10 years speak for themselves in this regard.

For comparison, the trek from Winterfell to KL in AGOT took 3 chapters. Tyrion's wanderings through Essos in ADWD took TWELVE chapters.

[SevasTra82]

One thing that stood out to me over that post is...the fact GRRM actually felt in August that October (and later, December) was a realistic (at one point) time for him to finish the book.

That tells me...though the book is not *done* yet...he must be pretty darn close to the end if he felt like he could finish it in 2-3 more months.  Of course, it then has to go through its cycles with the publishers etc.  But even so, I thought that was a glimmer of hope.

I really do feel like there is a good possibility it will be out this year.  At least, by the sounds of it.

[Masha]

To be honest with you all I'm actually surprised to hear him say that he's only months away from finishing.  I thought this would be another year.  He's further along than I thought.  I would've been shocked if it came out before next season of Thrones.

George means well, but "months away from finishing" is overly optimistic if we consider what he says - that hundreds of pages are completed and not specific "a thousand". His smallest books (Game of Thrones and a Clash of Kings were between 1088 and 1184 respectively). The latest books didn't come at less than 1,400 pages. If GRRM indeed has only "hundreds" of pages completed, and has another "not so good year", I'd say early 2017 is most optimistic projection here. ( I think I read somewhere that in his "bad" years GRRM writes only around 150 pages only per year)

[Isgrimner]

Oh well, kind of sucks.  If you look at the link in my signature, you will see I held off beginning the series even though I had some of the books on the shelf for years, because I knew of Martin's slow process.  I was trying to hold out till they were all published or close to it.  The announcement of the show was what finally got me to start reading, as I wanted to form my own opinions.  Well, at least I don't have it as bad as many do, as I only started in December of 2010. 

[The BlackBear]

One thing that stood out to me over that post is...the fact GRRM actually felt in August that October (and later, December) was a realistic (at one point) time for him to finish the book.

That tells me...though the book is not *done* yet...he must be pretty darn close to the end if he felt like he could finish it in 2-3 more months.  Of course, it then has to go through its cycles with the publishers etc.  But even so, I thought that was a glimmer of hope.

This might have been him counting on a couple of chapters being easy to write, but then proved a problem forcing him to change the story which then requires rewrites. If recall correctly this was part of the problem with aDwD. If a similar situation occurs.

[melx]

 

With all due respect, GRRM isn't developing the cure for cancer.

I live in Eastern Europe. Before the HBO show, NOBODY where I live had ever heard of George Martin. Don't you think that such a titan of literature would have drawn some attention worldwide from more than a small niche of epic fantasy fans?

i live in Europe too and me too have never heard about him,not from many people i have contact with (many avid book readers) not in any media until GOT came about ......

as a writer GRRM does not even come close to "classics" and even today he is not in top of the words best,but he is better than likes of Jonathan Franzen,Rowling etc

ASOIAF is his legacy and living it unfinished would harm it in same way GOT TV  show propel it from obscure "fantasy books readers club" into mainstream, huge money & popularity

[SevasTra82]

This might have been him counting on a couple of chapters being easy to write, but then proved a problem forcing him to change the story which then requires rewrites. If recall correctly this was part of the problem with aDwD. If a similar situation occurs.

Perhaps so.  But at least it gives us somewhat of a clue of how far he's gotten.  I would venture to say the bulk of the writing is done, but (as you said), some re-writes need to be done due to some changes.

I remember GRRM mentioning a "big twist" he thought of a few months back...I almost wonder if that "big twist" is what he was alluding to in his post by having to do some re-writes.

 

[ckongo]

The fundamental flaw with this kind of reasoning is that George Martin already "took all the time he needed" with AFFC and ADWD (and he had more time at his disposal then) and these books were not the best. So what exactly is the basis for the causal relationship between "taking all the time he needs" and "delivering the best product" so many people assume it exists? There is none. On the contrary, there seems to be a direct cause&effect relationship between the time needed to write the books and the decrease of their quality.

The problem, which many people don't want to acknowledge or are simply oblivious to, is the fact that the delays are the result of a fundamentally flawed writing process. "Taking all the time he needs" has absolutely no impact on this. I'm not a writer of literature myself, but I work in academia. Anyone who does research knows you need to stay focused on your topic and not go down every interesting avenue you encounter, because otherwise you risk getting sidetracked and derailing your project, even up to the point of failing to bring it to an end. There are always far more interesting issues which can pop up during a research than it is feasible for a single person to address. And this is a valid issue for creating literature as well. Unfortunately, George Martin failed massively in this regard. The first three books had a solid narrative thread, with a clear structure, progressing steadily towards a specific goal, which was met, and they had a clear climax and a closure. In the last two, though, the narrative thread has been completely derailed (perhaps Martin changing his original plans played a part, as it's always risky to change course mid-way through your project). Unfortunately, Martin was apparently unable to make a cold-assessment of what is feasible and what is not (and this is another problem which authors of both scientific and literary works are haunted with: they often get tempted to indulge in inconsequential details, hence why having an editor with the authority to put his foot down is so important). As a result, we have large parts of AFFC and ADWD being nothing else but "a day in the life of Cersei/Daenaerys/Jon Snow/Tyrion". This has derailed first the structure of ADWD, with significant chapters being removed from it (if having your editor remove the climax of your book, no less, in order to bring it down to a size fit for publication is not a sign of failure, I don't know what is) and, in the end, the series' timetable.

As for all the talk about "the pressure Martin feels", come on. I've known people who would have gotten sacked if they did not meet specific deadlines and their entire livelihood was at stake. I've known PhD students with very little income having to work whole nights in order to deliver their theses on time, else they would have been forced to return their scholarships. Most of us have had to deal with firm deadlines at work and, in many cases, not meeting them would have had dire personal consequences, without anyone giving us a pass. As for George Martin, it's not that simple as "he doesn't owe us anything". With respect to the readers, that is true, but, on the other hand, the revenue of his publishers and translators actually depends on him. As the best time to release TWOW was this spring (a lot of show fans might no longer be interested if TWOW is published a year after season 6, for instance), there is a chance Martin might have cost his publisher millions in revenue. If I was his publisher, I would be livid at his delays.

This is a beautiful post, and addresses many of the defenses I've heard from the GRRM apologists. The only setback likely contributing to GRRM's slow writing that's beyond his control is his age. While most writers, and people outside of that occupation as you described, have had to deal with the stress of putting out good work within a deadline for their livelihood, they likely weren't pushing 70.

 

To those "perfection takes time" people, the signs are all there. AGoT, ACoK, and ASoS were each written 2 years from each other; 1996, 1998, and 2000. And those books are almost inarguably the best in the series, and the ones the last two have been using as a lifeline to keep readers' interest. People keep hoping they will get as good as those three again. Problem is, the time gaps after ASoS painfully show writer's block among other things. GRRM knew where he was going with the story up until ASoS, and it showed ...beautifully. Not knowing and feverishly looking to invent new paths has proven a failure; as you explained so well.

 

The point? The longer he takes on TWoW; the more skepticism about its quality is warranted. I naturally hope it has the same quality as his first three books though.

[ckongo]

As I have said for many years: The worst news ever for readers of ASOIAF was that a TV Show would be based on it. Short sighted readers at the time sang songs of jubiliation at the announcement. Oh, how naive they were.

The reality is that the Show has destroyed the series for this generation of readers. Sure, readers 50 years from now will not be affected, their enjoyment will not be spoiled by the Show if they choose for it not to be. But for us, the loyal readers who were with Martin from the start, well, the hope of an unspoiled conclusion of ASOIAF has been blown out of the water.

Whatever we do, it will not have the same level of reward as it would have had if D&D never made their mediocre Show derived from it.

Of course, George is now in the money beyond his wildest dreams, so naturally he will see the Show as a necessary and worthwhile evil. I guess I would too, if I was in his position. It just sucks balls for the readership.

But, I guess that's what other authors and other series are for. ASOIAF was a good thing while it lasted. Sadly, with the Show inevitably spoiling the remaining two books, its run has come to an end.

Yeah, I've grown to loathe the show. Season 1 showed great promise; really sticking to the books. After that... it's increasingly ASOIF fan-fiction. I'm too biased to enjoy it anymore; especially when they've changed and added so many things unnecessarily. It's also slowed GRRM's writing, it's going to spoil so many things for book readers, and there's no way to avoid it besides going off the grid.

 

When GRRM sold his series to HBO he obviously convinced himself he could have it both ways: finish the books before the series caught up so everyone's happy. Even then considering his pacing at the time that notion was ludicrous. He really deluded himself, and obviously really wanted the money/fame. I can't fault him for it, but ASOIF will inevitably go down as a tale of the effects of "selling out."

I'm merely commenting that the whining about GRRM feeling pressure looks, frankly, extremely childish. Everyone faces pressure in life, many much more than GRRM. He has it easier than most of us, actually. He is rich, self-employed and his editors/publishers are going to wait on him, in the end. The problem with the show overtaking the books was more an issue of personal pride, it is not as if he is going to face any real consequences because of that. Nobody is going to sack him.

Sure, the idea of "pressure" is relative, one can feel pressure is a black cat crosses his path, but the notion of GRRM buckling under the pressure to the point that hundreds of people need to encourage him looks rather ludicrous. Just my two cents.

Finally, I would like to ask, even assuming that everything you said is correct, since most of it is down to interpretation anyway, what exactly is the point of your confrontational approach?

Exactly. The apologists need to put it into perspective that his "pressure" is actually far more mild than many; many who meet their deadlines despite it. And they argue the semantics of the word "pressure" in their efforts of lifting a shield for their beloved writer.

[DaveSumm]

To those "perfection takes time" people, the signs are all there. AGoT, ACoK, and ASoS were each written 2 years from each other; 1996, 1998, and 2000. And those books are almost inarguably the best in the series, and the ones the last two have been using as a lifeline to keep readers' interest.

I would dispute this. After scrapping the 5 year gap, he had an awkward job of bridging things to where he wanted to be and so understandably the narrative suffered. On first read, the plot doesn't progress as quickly as it did in 1-3 and it's rarely anyone's favourite ...... up until they re-read. Once you accept the pacing, in so many other regards they are superior. Characterisation, prose, weaving themes into the arcs, world building. I find them far more insightful, richer, deeper, more satisfying in the long term. I always find it quite jarring going back to aGoT and how plain I find it. 

If Winds has the progression of plot it really needs to have in order to put us one book away from completion, but retains the improvements from Feast / Dance, it could easily be the best in the series. 

[ckongo]

 

This is how I feel about it. In late summer he thought he could deliver the book by Jan.1. I can wait till June, or August or October knowing we'll have the book in hand this year. It would be a perfect start to Season 6 of the show for the publisher to announce a firm release date for the book.

Have you forgotten how in 2005 he expected ADWD to be done in 2006, and yet it came SIX YEARS LATER?! Just don't be so optimistic.

[ckongo]

I would dispute this. After scrapping the 5 year gap, he had an awkward job of bridging things to where he wanted to be and so understandably the narrative suffered. On first read, the plot doesn't progress as quickly as it did in 1-3 and it's rarely anyone's favourite ...... up until they re-read. Once you accept the pacing, in so many other regards they are superior. Characterisation, prose, weaving themes into the arcs, world building. I find them far more insightful, richer, deeper, more satisfying in the long term. I always find it quite jarring going back to aGoT and how plain I find it. 

If Winds has the progression of plot it really needs to have in order to put us one book away from completion, but retains the improvements from Feast / Dance, it could easily be the best in the series. 

I said "almost inarguably." And I've likely re-read the books (technically listened) more than you.

[DaveSumm]

When GRRM sold his series to HBO he obviously convinced himself he could have it both ways: finish the books before the series caught up so everyone's happy. Even then considering his pacing at the time that notion was ludicrous. He really deluded himself, and obviously really wanted the money/fame. I can't fault him for it, but ASOIF will inevitably go down as a tale of the effects of "selling out."

It really wasn't at all. He expressed an interest in the show in 2006, a year after Feast came out. After scrapping the gap in 2002, he wrote the whole of Feast and two thirds of what he thought would be included in Dance in 3 years. So he was just coming off he back of what he saw (correctly, kind of) as the most prolific 3 years of his life. He saw no reason that Dance wouldn't come out maybe 2007, and no reason that any future books would take longer than 2 years, putting the whole series on schedule for completion 2011, possibly before the show even started. I'm not saying the subsequent delays aren't his fault, but it wasn't a bad decision at the time. It looked like a solid adaption (Season 1 was), the books readership and his finances went through the roof. Can't blame him.

[ckongo]

It really wasn't at all. He expressed an interest in the show in 2006, a year after Feast came out. After scrapping the gap in 2002, he wrote the whole of Feast and two thirds of what he thought would be included in Dance in 3 years. So he was just coming off he back of what he saw (correctly, kind of) as the most prolific 3 years of his life. He saw no reason that Dance wouldn't come out maybe 2007, and no reason that any future books would take longer than 2 years, putting the whole series on schedule for completion 2011, possibly before the show even started. I'm not saying the subsequent delays aren't his fault, but it wasn't a bad decision at the time. It looked like a solid adaption (Season 1 was), the books readership and his finances went through the roof. Can't blame him.

You might be right. I'm unclear how much he scrapped after ditching the five-year thing (did he just burn all the pages/plots or keep the plots but changed the text?), and how much was really done of ADWD by 2006 when he got into negotiations. We can think, "Well, he must have been close to finished if in 2005 he expected ADWD to be out the following year." ...Then I have no idea how it ended up taking six years...

[Lord Varys]

I would dispute this. After scrapping the 5 year gap, he had an awkward job of bridging things to where he wanted to be and so understandably the narrative suffered. On first read, the plot doesn't progress as quickly as it did in 1-3 and it's rarely anyone's favourite ...... up until they re-read. Once you accept the pacing, in so many other regards they are superior. Characterisation, prose, weaving themes into the arcs, world building. I find them far more insightful, richer, deeper, more satisfying in the long term. I always find it quite jarring going back to aGoT and how plain I find it. 

If Winds has the progression of plot it really needs to have in order to put us one book away from completion, but retains the improvements from Feast / Dance, it could easily be the best in the series. 

Many people seem to fail to grasp that the plot-related problems are there from the start. AGoT-ASoS were the First Act, supposed to be the first volume of the planned trilogy. The Targaryen Conquest/Restoration the second volume, and the War against the Others the third book.

AFfC/ADwD sets the stages for the next big stories, and the very nature of the story made it impossible for him to rush things. Once the Aegon and Stannis' plots began in AGoT/ACoK it became clear that it wouldn't be as easy as Dany sweeping in and deposing the evil Lannister regime. It is going to be more complex than that.

You might be right. I'm unclear how much he scrapped after ditching the five-year thing (did he just burn all the pages/plots or keep the plots but changed the text?), and how much was really done of ADWD by 2006 when he got into negotiations. We can think, "Well, he must have been close to finished if in 2005 he expected ADWD to be out the following year." ...Then I have no idea how it ended up taking six years...

George really tried to make the gap work. He wrote many chapters in this whole scenario, and when he finally realized that it did not work he had to begin all over again - there are chapters from that time he used in reworked versions of the new books ('Mercy' being one of them, originally the first Arya chapter after the gap).

You can actually go back and read all his NAB posts on ADwD and figure out what his problems were with that book. The Meereenese Knot was just one of the problems (among other things it had Quentyn arriving at different points in time, and one version even had Marwyn being there already), others included the scrapped Shrouded Lord story involving Tyrion in Chroyane. Another problem was the date/situation in which Aegon's invasion decided. Originally that was apparently a Tyrion chapter which was later scrapped in favor of introducing Jon Connington as a new POV - one assumes that Tyrion gave the speech there, and subsequently went to the brothel where he would be abducted by Jorah.

The POV structure also would encourage any writer to write multiple chapters from one character's POV rather instead of laying out the exact number of any POV's chapter in the planned, and the sequence in which they would show up in the book.

Without the POV structure this series could be written much more easily, especially if George simply had an all-knowing narrator or jumped to various POVs whenever he wanted to or felt the need to do so. But in this story introducing a new POV means adding another story, and the very nature of the planned story makes it impossible/very hard to tell it from the POV of the POVs introduced in AGoT.

[Aaron Storm]

I agree with Congokong and the Celestial. I have read GRRM's books since the first was put out 20 years ago. It is not out of bounds to say that I adore these books - and think the world of GRRM. I have bought all of his books since I first read ASOIAF along with the Hedge Knight Novellas, the World of Ice and Fire and just about everything I could get my hands on since I was introduced to his work. I have watched the HBO show and I have enjoyed that as well. With all that being said, he has done a great disservice to his readers by not allowing us to complete the story in his own words. And make no mistake - his latest post was essentially admitting what many of us had feared for a few years - the end will come on the show. Even if the two diverge in significant butterfly effect ways, the ending will be roughly the same, and to make matters worse it will be nigh impossible to read the books without the specter of the show ruining the experience ( is this where Shireen is sacrificed? etc). I can't avoid the internet for 10 years - so I will essentially be forced to watch the show and have my reading experience significantly diminished. Remember - we were told time and again that Dance was delayed because of the fabled "Knot". Remember Speakman from Random House and others assuring  the fan base that the delay wasn't for him being away from the keyboard: 

I believe the lateness of A Dance With Dragons has very little to do with George's time away from the keyboard and his extra-curricular activities-time he was taking before Feast when the books were coming out more timely-and more to do with writing himself into a possible corner. For years George has wrestled with the Knot and it has defeated him at almost every turn. In short, if he hasn't found a solution to the Knot by now, he may never...

I love George - but any person who reads Not-a-Blog on a semi-regular basis understands that all of the other events in his life have side tracked him in a severe manner: Meow wolf, Jean Cocteau, Puppygate (He wrote like 15,000 words about that) and on and on. I honestly don't begrudge him his wealth and fame and I'm glad the show has been a success - but when he developed the TV show, there should have been a plan in place for this highly predicable outcome. Much like Celestial - I don't feel very bad that he's been operating on deadlines. He created those deadlines with the show deal. I operate on deadlines with my job and I hate it - but I still need to deliver. Also, deadlines spur movement like them or not, sometimes I surprise myself and do really good work when set against them. 

The waiting is difficult and although I never liked it - I was willing to do it for all of the reasons the series is so compelling. If he rambled, or if it took eight books and he was done in 2025 - I could deal. But I desperately wanted the series to end in the books before the TV show because this has been a 25 year reveal. GRRM doesn't owe me anything, ( and you all know we'll buy the books regardless) but I would have thought in some way he would have delivered the end of the books to his readers before the show did - and sadly, that ship has sailed. At this point I'm fully expecting to watch the end of the show and then wait two-three years before I read about it in ADOS - if that indeed is the last book

 

[Rippounet]

One thing that stood out to me over that post is...the fact GRRM actually felt in August that October (and later, December) was a realistic (at one point) time for him to finish the book.

That tells me...though the book is not *done* yet...he must be pretty darn close to the end if he felt like he could finish it in 2-3 more months.  Of course, it then has to go through its cycles with the publishers etc.  But even so, I thought that was a glimmer of hope.

I really do feel like there is a good possibility it will be out this year.  At least, by the sounds of it.

I agree, and I'm surprised so few people seem to see this.

Have you forgotten how in 2005 he expected ADWD to be done in 2006, and yet it came SIX YEARS LATER?! Just don't be so optimistic.

Is it better to be pessimistic then?

If Martin thought he might be able to finish Winds in 2-3 months, and the publishers thought they could get it published in 3 months, it's hard to see how the book could not be published in 2016. Early 2017 is the worst estimate, and that's assuming he really takes his time.

The real concern isn't Winds anymore. The problem is ADOS, and whether Martin can keep to the initial 7-books project -and thus finish the series. But I see no reason to be pessimistic on this either: Winds should lay the groundwork for the endgame and kill enough POV characters for ADOS to wrap everything up.

Generally speaking, while I understand that 'old' fans have reasons to be pessimistic, I think people push this a bit far...
The main piece of news here is that we almost got Winds before S6 of the show. While it is disapointing to be spoiled by what is now a poor adaptation, the book itself is almost done.
 

[Masha]

I've seen this and variants of it (he's bored of it, he doesn't care, he's in it for the money etc etc) so often in all these threads, and I have never seen a shred of evidence for it. The blog post is the most depressed and sullen I have ever seen him, and it seems abundantly clear that the most obvious answer is the correct one; he's an author, he knows full well that this will be his best known work and his legacy, and he desperately wants it finished. He wants to beat the show, he wants to stick the landing and give the series the send off it deserves, but it's just taken him longer than he wanted.

He has said in the past that he should have carried on to Winds immediately after finishing Dance, and I strongly suspect that he will spend more time between now and its completion writing than he ever has. Nothing in the post suggested it was over a year away, so I'm still hoping for Winds in 2016 and Dream will hopefully come in 3/4 years, 2019/2020. By which time he'll be 70/71, well below the average male lifespan so the idea of him not finishing just seems needlessly pessimistic to me. 

My feelings were that he felt more like shame of not completing the book on time and disappointment in being forced to admit it, but its no longer his priority even compared to his other books and projects. For example, he keeps adding on his side-projects, then he reclaims his commitment and love for Wild Cards projects, but I see no such commitment and love in his words for GOT anymore. It feels like he does everything BUT ASOIAF and it felt so for the last few years.

If one were to go over his posts pre-Dance, every now and again he would put a hint, a loving wink-wink toward "the Kong". He doesn't do it anymore. Fans keep trying to find subliminal hints in his blogs about Wild Cards, his SyFy zombie show guest appearance, his posts about football... but there are none, he just avoids talking about ASOAIF completely. He even dropped writing about Egg & Dunk, I don't remember him mentioning ever completing the She-Wolves story...

[Valandil]

"His series is not reaching a conclusion in a timely fashion (20+years) because he doesn't know how how to conclude it. As a result, the plot is out of control, convoluted, and split along more than half a dozen separate story lines involving supernumerary characters. At his current rate of progress, the book after his presently tardy sequel may not be completed until 2021 or 2022. This assumes he could wrap up the dog's dinner of his story in two books, only takes 5 years to write each of them....His failure to deliver a new novel since the 2011 beginning season of Game of Thrones (now in season 6) and repeated busted deadlines simply demonstrates that he is an unenthusiastic or distracted author. His failure to write books in a timely fashion has all but guaranteed the ending of his story will take place on HBO within the next year or two; and he doesn't seem to care much. Why should he? HBO will pay him more for the rights to end his story on their channel than he could make on the books anyway."

 

Harshly put but accurate