Update on the "Winds"

[Cas Stark]

Well, if he doesn't finish he will gain literary immortality, but not of the kind he envisioned, because due to the show, the series has a much, much higher profile than the wheel of time did, which no one outside of sci/fi fantasy circles had ever heard of.  Everyone has heard of GOT.  He also now runs the risk of people concluding that the show did a better job on his story than he will have done. He also seems to be only writer other than Rowling who sold the rights of an unfinished series.

And then lastly, while it's debated among readers, I believe the overall consensus is that the last two books ARE weaker than the first 3, so he also runs the risk of having 'history' conclude that he started off with a bang and ended with a whimper.

Everyone said that Winds would be easier for him than Feast and Dance because he had addressed the gap and the knot [sort of] and he could begin weaving back together the threads of the story and get his main players set up...back in Westeros...on their final track to the end...but it doesn't appear that Winds has been easier, and again, my own interpretation of the sample chapters is that it doesn't appear he has gotten back on form in terms of moving the narrative along with tighter writing and pacing and plotting.  Winds reads just like Dance to me with 1 or 2 exceptions.  Also not a very good sign for his historical reputation.

 

 

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

He may have gotten past the "knot", but I don't think he has ever gotten past the "gap".  In fact the "knot" is just a symptom of the "gap".

He should have found a way to keep the gap, getting rid of the gap created so much structural problems that he is still not done fixing them.

 

 

[ChillyPolly]

Mormont wrote:

I don't believe GRRM has ever spoken of 'literary immortality'. Posterity, yes: legacy, perhaps. But not 'literary immortality'.

I was paraphrasing

I know of no evidence that the 'old' are drifting away in significant numbers. 

I don’t care to argue about it

I'm not sure the main attribute of the literary immortals is focusing on the needs of their readers - particularly not if we're taking that to mean punctuality with deadlines...

Well, yes, obviously it depends on how you define “needs of the readers”.  But you are clearly ignoring the actual context of the discussion.  An attempt is being made to claim that he does not owe his readers his best efforts.  This may be technically true, but is, as I argue, irrelevant. 

How one defines “best efforts” and how one juggles the various ways of doing ones best (deadlines versus quality) is irrelevant to my point.  Whatever standard you use, there is going to be a correlation between effort and achievement.

 

[Rippounet]

I'm still confused as to why people are taking an extremely pessimistic, cynical post from George as reason for optimism and thinking the book will be done this summer. 

The post contains -what is objectively- information: that he almost got it done in time, that he thought a few months would be enough to get it done. Unless you think that George is lying or that he is so bad at judging the amount of time his writing requires, I don't see how you can be pessimistic about Winds. Yes he made a mistake... By an order of months... As far as writing goes, that's not a huge mistake...

In fact, I'm astonished (and a bit sad) to see that many fans on this forum hold George in very low esteem. As Mormont's tried to say (again and again), the man's a professional. Yes, he screwed up in the past... Which is reason enough to believe that he's much more careful about any estimate/progress report he makes public now.

In other words, thinking that the information he's giving us today is false seems to border on the contemptuous imho... And I'm still confused about that...

If he genuinely only has a couple hundred pages left to write (as some people seem to inexplicably think), and if he really is quite close to being done and will have a book out this summer,

he would have said so

.  Why wouldn't he?  Why would he go into exhaustive detail about all his missed deadlines if it's all moot and the book is coming in the next six months anyway?  He wouldn't.  It doesn't make any logical sense.  If it were the case that he's gonna be done this year, he would have said, "Hey guys, I'm working on Winds and unfortunately it's not going to be ready before the next season of the show, which I know a lot of people were expecting and hoping for.  Sorry about that.  However, don't despair! The book is approaching completion.  I don't want to give any solid dates or numbers about when it'll be done for obvious reasons, but the majority of it is written and in a finalized state, and I'm hopeful that the wait for it is almost over."  Obviously rephrased in his flowery language.

Don't you think missing a deadline (again) is reason enough to be depressed, even in the book is finished in six months?
I don't know whether we read the same post, but it seemed to me that the whole point of it was to tell people that there was nothing left to prevent the show from spoiling the books. Until recently, George (and his editors) hoped that the show wouldn't spoil Winds (at least), and he is very depressed about the fact that he didn't make it. This was his reason to communicate about deadlines and progress it seems to me...

I for myself, understand George perfectly, because I was also hoping for Winds to be published before S6. I don't know whether I was optimistic about it, but I was certainly hoping. Thus, I share George's disapointment, and am glad that he took the time to tell us he shares this disapointment.

People who read more into this post seem to think that George will never finish the series and/or that he is unable to work on ASOAIF anymore. Which begs the question: "if you truly believe the series will never be finished, why be on this forum at all?" Isn't it time for you to move on?

[Ninefingers]

 Unless you think that George is lying or that he is so bad at judging the amount of time his writing requires,

I think the latter is true. 

The good news is that even if he's so awful at it that he underestimates by a factor of 4 we're still looking at under a year.

[Dragon in the North]

The post contains -what is objectively- information: that he almost got it done in time, that he thought a few months would be enough to get it done. Unless you think that George is lying or that he is so bad at judging the amount of time his writing requires, I don't see how you can be pessimistic about Winds. Yes he made a mistake... By an order of months... As far as writing goes, that's not a huge mistake...

In fact, I'm astonished (and a bit sad) to see that many fans on this forum hold George in very low esteem. As Mormont's tried to say (again and again), the man's a professional. Yes, he screwed up in the past... Which is reason enough to believe that he's much more careful about any estimate/progress report he makes public now.

In other words, thinking that the information he's giving us today is false seems to border on the contemptuous imho... And I'm still confused about that...

Martin also said that ADWD would be out a year after AFFC, where it actually took him six years. I'm pretty sure, also, that he posted on his not a blog in mid-2008 that he would have the book finished at the end of the year. I don't think Martin is lying, I just believe he overestimates his writing speed.

[ChillyPolly]

The post contains -what is objectively- information: that he almost got it done in time, that he thought a few months would be enough to get it done. Unless you think that George is lying or that he is so bad at judging the amount of time his writing requires, I don't see how you can be pessimistic about Winds. Yes he made a mistake... By an order of months... As far as writing goes, that's not a huge mistake...

I'm sorry but I agree 100% with the pessimists.  I don't believe GRRM tells lies at all (as far as I know), but over the years, I've learned NOT to read into his words anything that he is not actually saying.  You are reading into his words things he is not saying.  Sure, if he said he had 1300 manuscript pages written, we would have some kind of sign that he is "almost done" in some sense, but he did not say that, or anything like it.  This is very like his February 2009 post about ADWD.

How long do you think it takes to write an entire book "if the writing goes well"?  "Months" should do it. 100 manuscript pages a month, and you have 1000 manuscript pages after 10 months.

 

In fact, I'm astonished (and a bit sad) to see that many fans on this forum hold George in very low esteem.

 

Sorry.  This sort of talk leaves me cold.  If he owes me nothing (which is the official line) then why am I required to believe he will give me anything?  Look, I trust the man well enough.  If he tells he he has "hundreds" of pages written, and "dozens" of chapters written, I will accept that as literally true.  But that is not enough to reassure me that he is nearly finished, because it could mean 25 chapters amounting to 500 pages.  If he says "It will be done when it's done", then why should I believe it will be done this year?

I'm betting on 2019 or 2020.  Hope I'm wrong.  A pleasant surprise would be nice.

[ArborWineCellar]

If he didnt want to finish the series he would of said so, he's not the type of persone to force himself to do anything he doesn't want.

His fame and sudden change of lifestyle since 2011/2012 is of course a factor in Winds not being ready yet, but no one can blame the guy, he's living it large thanks to a fictional book series!!

 

 

[Calibandar]

Two things.

What's also interesting to me about George's post is that while he is willing to explain what deadlines he had, at what point they did not become feasible anymore, and why the gloom set in and he failed to make them, is that he himself never seems to feel that his extensive traveling and conventions are a reason for not making it. Never mind what we here think, I think by now the board has evolved in such a way that most people accept that yes, those things do have a big impact on his writing especially since we are talking about a man who will only write at home. So nothing gets done when he is not home. But when George refers to his extensive "away time" it is usually in a fashion of "I know people want me to chained to the desk". It's always what other people supposedly want him to do. Does he genuinely not see that while he proclaims that 2015 was the big year of his writing this book, and that he has indeed made big strides with the book the last year due to the pressure of the season 6 deadline and the commitment that required from him, does he not see that all this time away did in fact contribute to this failure to meet the deadline he and his publisher wanted to meet?

Even in the other other "end of year" post about travel and cons, he does admit he traveled too much in 2015. But even in a crucial writing year such as this one, he has still ended up travelling far more than usual, by his own admission. I understand that writing and time for yourself is a balancing act, but what is also hard to balance is his supposed deep commitment to finishing the book on the one hand, in what should have been a banner year for him, and more travel than ever, in that same year. This does not go hand in hand, suggesting that yes, there is commitment on his part, but only if he can also do whatever he wants throughout the year and keep himself busy with three tv shows in early stages of production, a movie project, and editing Wild Cards.

The other thing is spoilers for Winds due to the tv show. I just feel as if GRRM is trying to soften the blow for himself here by stating that the tv show and the book have become two different things now. He digs deep into his memory to gives us a whole list of side characters and utters that those are examples of why it will be radically different. When the fact that is that 80% or so of the story will be the same, the fate and actions of major characters is unlikely to differ on more than details.The book will be much, much richer than the show, and very likely plain better. But at the same time, the show will take the biggest elements from it, the cherries on top of the pie, and serve all of them to us, prematurely. 

That said I do agree with his assessment that you can still enjoy the book a great deal even if you have seen the tv show, no doubt. But its power to surprise and have us marvel at it, that will unfortunately be diminished by the revelations from the tv show. And he knows this, that is why he wanted to avoid it at all costs. Every single episode that is going to be aired this year, is going to have massive, massive spoilers.

My fear now is that with this deadline out of the way, and people on his blog telling him "take all the time you need George!" his approach will not be to buckle down and finish what he's started. Now that the tv show ship has sailed, will he take that a sign and say "oh well, back to my pre-2015 mentality"? 

[Cas Stark]

I agree with all of this.  I also think 'take all the time you need' is not productive.  He's slow without a deadline and slow with a deadline.  But the biggest motivator for him to stick to writing Winds has now been removed.  Certainly, the freedom of not having to worry about the show getting ahead of him, since he now has admitted it will, could give him a creative boost.  However, it could also work the other way, with no significant reason to get the book out, he could fall back into endless rewrites and wordsmiths and writing entire arcs and then abandoning them, in which case it could be 2 years before Winds it out.

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

The "take all the time you need" people are not helping, they to me are as bad as the "GRRM is ruining my life" people. 

And I agree that I don't find the latest update by Martin hopeful at all, I don't expect the book to come out in 2016 at all.  And his comments on how the show will or wont spoil the books extremely un-convincing.  No, the show can't "ruin" the books, but it will spoil the key plots.  To believe anything else is to be in denial.

 

 

[Celestial]

Here is the problem though....ASOIAF is *not* the central point of his life.  Unfortunately, it's turned into the central point of his READER'S lives.  And by extension, people think it should be HIS central point as well, and it simply is not.  People seem to forget that GRRM has about 1,000 other things going on that doesn't even involve ASOIAF going on in his life.  Not only that, but people can't seem to fathom on why GRRM would possibly WANT to have other projects.  He's committed to his work, but that work also consists of Wild Cards, his multiple TV Pilots, his Cinema, Art Studio, Charity work with the Wolves Foundation, and countless short story editing on other projects with Bantam.  GRRM's world simply does not revolve solely around ASOIAF, and people need to understand that.

Keep in mind too, GRRM's appearances for GOT-related items are not only planned out years ahead of time, they are also appearances that he's contractually obligated to attend.  Some things he *can* control (like world-con visits), but the trips to Germany, Australia etc are all planned out ahead of time...it's just the nature of promoting.

Are there things he could do to help himself out?  Sure.  He could take on less projects.  He could learn how to write on an updated computer in a hotel room.  He could also probably go to Bantam/HBO and see if he could worm out of some of his appearances.  

But you know what?  I'm never going to blame or fault a guy for doing what he loves (his cinema, art studio, charity work etc).  He has a right to live his life and be happy.  And as Neil Gaiman said...."George RR Martin is not your bitch".

 

 

One, George Martin is a professional writer. That is his job and ASOIF is his main project. Putting aside key issues such as personal health and family, the world of any normal human does (and should) revolve around his job. Any employee who would tell his boss that his world does not revolve around his job and can't be arsed to meet his deadline would be laid off pronto.

Second, I agree that George Martin has "about on other 1,000 things going on". There is one word describing a person who has 1,000 things going on: unfocused. Working on a gazillion projects at the same time is unfeasible for any human being. Stating this is simply stating a fact, not that Martin is anyone's bitch. And, unless the plan is to leave many of his projects unfinished, I don't see how anyone can assess the decision of having 1,000 things going on at the same time other than a mistake. Are you implying that GRRM does not want to finish his 1,000 projects?

There is a saying in my country about this: "if you chase 2 rabbits, you end up empty handed".

I'm never going to blame or fault a guy for doing what he loves (his cinema, art studio, charity work etc).  He has a right to live his life and be happy.

That's a very problematic statement. Work is not a hobby, but from the way you say it, it sound as if you see it as such. The only reason why you can make such a silly assertion in this particular case is because Martin is part of the privileged few. Billions of people would prefer doing something else than being at their jobs, but society does not work that way. Not everyone can be a movie star: someone also has to clean the sewers, so to speak, and they need to do it now, not when they feel like it.

As for Martin living his life and be happy, come on. Looking at his past summer schedule, he had no less than 57 days booked for travel. Since Martin can't work on the road, those are basically days off for him. Can you tell me of one employer which gives you around 60 days off even over a whole year? "Live his life and be happy" sounds wonderful, but one has to be reasonable. Spending a quarter of your year in vacation is not reasonable.

What do you think would happen to, say, Apple (or any company) with the kind of work ethic you suggested? This is an attitude appropriate when one has decided to retire. If Martin wishes to retire, fair enough, but, in that case, let's stare reality in its face: ASOIF is not a project which can be finished with the working schedule specific for someone's retirement.

 

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

 

 

One, George Martin is a professional writer. That is his job and ASOIF is his main project. Putting aside key issues such as personal health and family, the world of any normal human does (and should) revolve around his job. Any employee who would tell his boss that his world does not revolve around his job and can't be arsed to meet his deadline would be laid off pronto.

Second, I agree that George Martin has "about on other 1,000 things going on". There is one word describing a person who has 1,000 things going on: unfocused. Working on a gazillion projects at the same time is unfeasible for any human being. Stating this is simply stating a fact, not that Martin is anyone's bitch. And, unless the plan is to leave many of his projects unfinished, I don't see how anyone can assess the decision of having 1,000 things going on at the same time other than a mistake. Are you implying that GRRM does not want to finish his 1,000 projects?

There is a saying in my country about this: "if you chase 2 rabbits, you end up empty handed".

That's a very problematic statement. Work is not a hobby, but from the way you say it, it sound as if you see it as such. The only reason why you can make such a silly assertion in this particular case is because Martin is part of the privileged few. Billions of people would prefer doing something else than being at their jobs, but society does not work that way. Not everyone can be a movie star: someone also has to clean the sewers, so to speak, and they need to do it now, not when they feel like it.

As for Martin living his life and be happy, come on. Looking at his past summer schedule, he had no less than 57 days booked for travel. Since Martin can't work on the road, those are basically days off for him. Can you tell me of one employee which gives you around 60 days off even over a whole year? "Live his life and be happy" sounds wonderful, but one has to be reasonable. Spending a quarter of your year in vacation is not reasonable.

What do you think would happen to, say, Apple (or any company) with the kind of work ethic you suggested? This is an attitude appropriate when one has decided to retire. If Martin wishes to retire, fair enough, but, in that case, let's stare reality in its face: ASOIF is not a project which can be finished with the working schedule specific for someone's retirement.

 

Spot on.  At this point the reality is Martin does not have the commitment and focus required to finish the series.  He will at best make meandering progress, which might eventually be enough to push out Book 6.  Barring a drastic unforeseen change in how (and how frequent) he writes, but change get harder and harder as a man grows older.  

[SevasTra82]

 

I'm sorry but I agree 100% with the pessimists.  I don't believe GRRM tells lies at all (as far as I know), but over the years, I've learned NOT to read into his words anything that he is not actually saying.  You are reading into his words things he is not saying.  Sure, if he said he had 1300 manuscript pages written, we would have some kind of sign that he is "almost done" in some sense, but he did not say that, or anything like it.  This is very like his February 2009 post about ADWD.

How long do you think it takes to write an entire book "if the writing goes well"?  "Months" should do it. 100 manuscript pages a month, and you have 1000 manuscript pages after 10 months.

 

Sorry.  This sort of talk leaves me cold.  If he owes me nothing (which is the official line) then why am I required to believe he will give me anything?  Look, I trust the man well enough.  If he tells he he has "hundreds" of pages written, and "dozens" of chapters written, I will accept that as literally true.  But that is not enough to reassure me that he is nearly finished, because it could mean 25 chapters amounting to 500 pages.  If he says "It will be done when it's done", then why should I believe it will be done this year?

I'm betting on 2019 or 2020.  Hope I'm wrong.  A pleasant surprise would be nice.

I do agree a little bit with your pessimism.  George, by his own admission, can write roughly 500 words a day (he said this exact number once in an interview).  Lets say he works your average 5 days a week.  That's 2500 words a week, or 10 manuscript pages.  Now lets say WINDS is roughly 1,300 pages long.  That means it would take George 130 weeks to complete the first draft.  That's over 2 years....for the FIRST draft.  Now, when you throw in having to edit those 1,300 pages, any rewrites that have to be done, and on top of that, having other writing projects to juggle (such as his WILD CARDS series), I can see why it would take an additional 1-2 years to edit and rewrite the manuscript.  Then you have beta readers, the publishers, other editors, and the plethora of outside people that need to touch the manuscript before it's finalized.

Now, lets compare him to other prominent Fantasy Authors today.  I've learned over research that the average fantasy author today writes (on average) 1,000-1,200 words an hour. (In case you're wondering, I've asked Brandon Sanderson, Brian McClellen, Patrick Rothfuss, and a few others personally on twitter and gotten responses on this, hence where I got this number).  I'll use Brandon Sanderson as my example.  I'm not sure if anyone on here is familiar with him, but he's known in the Fantasy Industry as being one of the fastest, most consistent authors going right now.  His STORMLIGHT ARCHIVE series is very similar to ASOIAF in terms of length and depth, and by his own admission it takes him approx. 2 years to finish one of those books (he started it last June, said it won't be done until possibly summer of 2017).  So even for Brandon Sanderson, it takes a long damn time to write a book that big.  

So I guess my main point is...I do agree with the pessimism that comes with George and his timelines.  He's a slow ass writer...no doubt about that.  Even if he didn't have any other side projects going on...he's still slow as dirt (compared to his peers, at least).  But there is nothing anyone can do about that, unfortunately.  Its maddening and frustrating as hell....but writing is a hard, long, painful process...so i try to give George a little bit of a pass for it, because I simply do not believe he should chain himself to his desk and be 100% committed to ASOIAF.  The guy deserves to do other things, even if those other things annoy and anger us.

I *do* wish George would put aside his pride and get with the times.  I think he could get a lot more done if he would just get himself an updated computer so he could work out on the road (and I think this is part of his biggest problem).  Unfortunately he only writes at home, on his DOS computer, and i severely limits his productivity.  He could easily have WINDS out by now if he would just buy a new PC and work while he's out of town.  This is probably the most maddening thing to me that he does.

BUT GRRM isn't the only slow writer right now...I've been waiting since 2011 for the 3rd book in Patrick Rothfuss's KINGKILLER CHRONICLE series to come out, and I have no clue what's taking him so long to finish it.  LOL.

 

 

 

[Ser Biscuit]

SMDH.

GRRM: The writing on Winds was going so well,  then I got a deadline. Since I was so close to being done I thought I could surely make the deadline but the process slowed. The book won't be edited and published before season 6 - sorry.

My conclusion: He was close to the finish line but the deadline fucked it up and caused some stress that produced writers block. It would have been best if the editors didn't bring it up. But now that the deadline has been lifted the writing process should back pick up. Since he was close to completion before Winds should be out this year (summer being my prediction).

Some of the conclusions drawn by others: It's all over, his legacy is ruined, the book won't be out until 2017 at the earliest, the show (renowned for sticking to the books right?) will spoil the story of Winds, he should have locked himself at home more, now that he got the money he doesn't care about the series anymore, he doesn't know how to finish the story, he doesn't care about the fans, he's a failure, we might never see the conclusion of ASOIAF now.

Hopefully Martin never reads this thread and sees the extremes that's being jumped to.

[Cas Stark]

 

I do agree a little bit with your pessimism.  George, by his own admission, can write roughly 500 words a day (he said this exact number once in an interview).  Lets say he works your average 5 days a week.  That's 2500 words a week, or 10 manuscript pages.  Now lets say WINDS is roughly 1,300 pages long.  That means it would take George 130 weeks to complete the first draft.  That's over 2 years....for the FIRST draft.  Now, when you throw in having to edit those 1,300 pages, any rewrites that have to be done, and on top of that, having other writing projects to juggle (such as his WILD CARDS series), I can see why it would take an additional 1-2 years to edit and rewrite the manuscript.  Then you have beta readers, the publishers, other editors, and the plethora of outside people that need to touch the manuscript before it's finalized.

Now, lets compare him to other prominent Fantasy Authors today.  I've learned over research that the average fantasy author today writes (on average) 1,000-1,200 words an hour. (In case you're wondering, I've asked Brandon Sanderson, Brian McClellen, Patrick Rothfuss, and a few others personally on twitter and gotten responses on this, hence where I got this number).  I'll use Brandon Sanderson as my example.  I'm not sure if anyone on here is familiar with him, but he's known in the Fantasy Industry as being one of the fastest, most consistent authors going right now.  His STORMLIGHT ARCHIVE series is very similar to ASOIAF in terms of length and depth, and by his own admission it takes him approx. 2 years to finish one of those books (he started it last June, said it won't be done until possibly summer of 2017).  So even for Brandon Sanderson, it takes a long damn time to write a book that big.  

So I guess my main point is...I do agree with the pessimism that comes with George and his timelines.  He's a slow ass writer...no doubt about that.  Even if he didn't have any other side projects going on...he's still slow as dirt (compared to his peers, at least).  But there is nothing anyone can do about that, unfortunately.  Its maddening and frustrating as hell....but writing is a hard, long, painful process...so i try to give George a little bit of a pass for it, because I simply do not believe he should chain himself to his desk and be 100% committed to ASOIAF.  The guy deserves to do other things, even if those other things annoy and anger us.

I *do* wish George would put aside his pride and get with the times.  I think he could get a lot more done if he would just get himself an updated computer so he could work out on the road (and I think this is part of his biggest problem).  Unfortunately he only writes at home, on his DOS computer, and i severely limits his productivity.  He could easily have WINDS out by now if he would just buy a new PC and work while he's out of town.  This is probably the most maddening thing to me that he does.

BUT GRRM isn't the only slow writer right now...I've been waiting since 2011 for the 3rd book in Patrick Rothfuss's KINGKILLER CHRONICLE series to come out, and I have no clue what's taking him so long to finish it.  LOL.

 

 

 

500 words a day?  Good lord.  Your post is over 500 words.  I hope he can write more than this post in one day.    

[Ser Didymus]

while the show has failed on multiple levels, one thing they manage to do is identify those "key plot moments" and shoe-horn them into their story.  Ned in season one.  blackwater in season two.  Red wedding in season three.  Joffrey,Oberyn, Tyrion v. Tywin season 4.  Dany/Jon season 5.

does anyone truly read ASOIAF just for those handful of "key plot moments" at this point in the story?

EVERYTHING in between cannot and will not be spoiled by the show because it doesn't exist in that medium.  the impact of those major "key plot moments" are important, of course; but i would not say that knowledge of a handful of character deaths will detract from the greater work that GRRM is creating.  even with Ned in AGoT, that was merely a device to alert the reader to the fact that "no one is safe, even the perceived protagonist of the story."

 

and just a little side note here, saying to someone "take all the time you need," means just that.  no one is saying, "take all the time you want..." or "take your time."

and really, everyone here needs to take a step back and realize that GRRM, his publishers, and the show runners do not care what you think.  be angry at the guy; the book will not be completed any sooner.  be ecstatic that he's broken radio silence regarding the Winds of Winter; the book will not be completed any sooner.  do people really think that their opinion will affect the publish date of the book?  or is that everyone loves to vent when they're not 100% happy with everything in their life?

[Celestial]

 

I do agree a little bit with your pessimism.  George, by his own admission, can write roughly 500 words a day (he said this exact number once in an interview).  Lets say he works your average 5 days a week.  That's 2500 words a week, or 10 manuscript pages.  Now lets say WINDS is roughly 1,300 pages long.  That means it would take George 130 weeks to complete the first draft.  That's over 2 years....for the FIRST draft.  Now, when you throw in having to edit those 1,300 pages, any rewrites that have to be done, and on top of that, having other writing projects to juggle (such as his WILD CARDS series), I can see why it would take an additional 1-2 years to edit and rewrite the manuscript.  Then you have beta readers, the publishers, other editors, and the plethora of outside people that need to touch the manuscript before it's finalized.

Now, lets compare him to other prominent Fantasy Authors today.  I've learned over research that the average fantasy author today writes (on average) 1,000-1,200 words an hour. (In case you're wondering, I've asked Brandon Sanderson, Brian McClellen, Patrick Rothfuss, and a few others personally on twitter and gotten responses on this, hence where I got this number).  I'll use Brandon Sanderson as my example.  I'm not sure if anyone on here is familiar with him, but he's known in the Fantasy Industry as being one of the fastest, most consistent authors going right now.  His STORMLIGHT ARCHIVE series is very similar to ASOIAF in terms of length and depth, and by his own admission it takes him approx. 2 years to finish one of those books (he started it last June, said it won't be done until possibly summer of 2017).  So even for Brandon Sanderson, it takes a long damn time to write a book that big.  

 

SevasTra, I'm not sure I understand your point. From the numbers you have provided, the difference looks HUGE. GRRM writes 500 words per day,  while the average fantasy author writes 1000-1200 words per hour.  Assuming that author does not stress himself too much and works only 4-5 hours per day (which is a very leisurely schedule, let's be honest), that still gives him 4-5000 words per day. In other words, 8-10 times more than George. As such, someone like Brandon Sanderson can afford to take his times off and still deliver in 2, even 3 years, which is a very reasonable time for a book that size.

How can Martin write only 500 words per day I simply can't understand. Does he spend only 30-60 minutes per day on ASOIF???

Edited: Sevas, I was curious enough to count. Your post is 572 words. Maybe you should try your hand at fantasy.

[The Fattest Leech]

while the show has failed on multiple levels, one thing they manage to do is identify those "key plot moments" and shoe-horn them into their story.  Ned in season one.  blackwater in season two.  Red wedding in season three.  Joffrey,Oberyn, Tyrion v. Tywin season 4.  Dany/Jon season 5.

does anyone truly read ASOIAF just for those handful of "key plot moments" at this point in the story?

EVERYTHING in between cannot and will not be spoiled by the show because it doesn't exist in that medium.  the impact of those major "key plot moments" are important, of course; but i would not say that knowledge of a handful of character deaths will detract from the greater work that GRRM is creating.  even with Ned in AGoT, that was merely a device to alert the reader to the fact that "no one is safe, even the perceived protagonist of the story."

-snipped-

I hope not because they would be missing out on 75% of the story.

For me it would spoil those key moments, weakening them because it removes the tensions, plot, clues or theories along the way in the book. Part of the excitement is being unsure. If the show says that Robb's will exists and is valid and names Jon a true Stark, well, why do I have to read any more books and follow the BWB clues and get all excited about it. I know it's true and the words just become words to get to the end. Look at how many threads run on this site alone that are all about hints, clues and theories.

Hopefully it won't for all. I plan on not watching the show until the book arrives and I read it first. If the books never arrive or the series is not completed, then I may go back to the show.

[rozemarijn]

 

 Actually he said he was revising a Theon chapter, not writing one.  He could simply be referring to a revision of the Theon sample chapter we got in 2011

I hope you are right though.  Theon's Dance chapters were amazing. I hope we get a lot more of them.

ETA:

Oops we said the same thing...

 

 Damn you're right he did  Still, there is the question what new material he might be adding if it was a very old chapter. (And to be honest, it is more fun thinking about Theon than analyzing his writing speed ...)

 I worked on the book a couple of days ago, revising a Theon chapter and adding some new material, and I will writing on it again tomorrow.