Update on the "Winds"

[mormont]

That's reasonable. After all, just as GRRM doesn't owe us, we don't owe him. We're under no obligation to buy the book when it's released, or to take any further interest in his career at all. And I'm sure some of us won't. I don't count myself among those, though.

[DaveSumm]

Also, it's worth noting that it's been 4 and a half years since Dance. Dance was 6 years, Feast was 5. So this is currently the 3rd longest wait. I could understand some of the reaction if we'd overtaken Dance, then we really would be looking at a pretty clear trend, but it seems a bit premature. 

[Calibandar]

Also, it's worth noting that it's been 4 and a half years since Dance. Dance was 6 years, Feast was 5. So this is currently the 3rd longest wait. I could understand some of the reaction if we'd overtaken Dance, then we really would be looking at a pretty clear trend, but it seems a bit premature. 

Can I recommend that you never ever get a job in finance or anything to do with mathematics, economics or analysis in general?

[Cas Stark]

There were allegedly specific problems that GRRM had which is why Dance and Feast took so long.  The 5 year gap and the Meereen knot.  But those have been largely addressed.  So the optimists conventional wisdom was that Winds would take less time because GRRM had dealt with those problems that caused so much rewriting.

That appears not to be the case.  Winds is shaping up to overtake Feast in the time it will have taken him to write it.

Just think if in the alternate universe GRRM editors had put their foot down after he put out Feast.  If they had forced him to take an assistant or if an editor had worked with him all along.  We might have gotten Dance out by 2009, that would still have given him 4 years, and maybe a better product, too.  If he had gotten Dance out in 4 not 6 years, then Winds could have been out by 2013!  Still giving him 4 years.  And then, there would be no problem, he could do the last book at his leisure to coincide with the last season of HBO in 2017.  

Think how much better that would be for him.  So much less pressure.  So I say again he has needed tough love for a LONG time.  He does not need to be indulged in his various bad habits that all work together to cause these massive delays and all hurt him more than anyone at the end of the day.

[DaveSumm]

Can I recommend that you never ever get a job in finance or anything to do with mathematics, economics or analysis in general?

Well, the numbers are correct......I can only guess that you're referring to the fact that Winds will probably end up taking longer than Feast. Granted. But 5, 6, 5 (I guess we'll probably agree to disagree that 2016 is still likely) is not a increasingly large set of numbers.......I'm gutted that S6 is coming first but people are talking of the series being left incomplete as a foregone conclusion when we're nowhere near that territory yet.

[Arthmail]

Is it?

I mean, we're not talking about 300 page detective novels here. What's normal for a fantasy series of this scope and length? I'd say at least 3 years between books, but there are so few points of comparison that's really an arbitrary number. What we've had is 5-6 years, which is something we all (including GRRM) wish had been significantly less, but if wishes were horses, and all that.

I never understand the assumption that not only does GRRM not push himself, or react to pushing by the fans, but also that not a single one of GRRM's editors, publishers, family, friends, colleagues, professional collaborators, business associates and partners has ever thought to push him. I put it down to wishful thinking, the notion that an intractable problem actually has an easy answer. 

 

You may think this is a reasonable description of the last two books, but a portion of the delay in each case was caused specifically by GRRM's desire to get the manuscript to be a coherent novel. Even if he failed in your opinion, that matters because clearly he wouldn't do as you suggest this time either.

It's not a 300 page detective novel, correct. It is also not a treatise on the fall of the Roman Empire. It takes less time to get to Saturn than to see a Martin book. And he does need to be pushed. 500 words a day is abysmal, but even more than that someone should have said - after what I can imagine is only the 1000th indepth discussion about where the story is going - no, no one else is leaving fucking Westeros. Tyrion is staying in Westeros. Who is Qynten Martel? Who cares. Start resolving your story now, do not keep adding to it.

 

Listen, I think many of us on the board write. Professionally, personally with the hopes of becoming professional. Anyone that's been doing it for a bit knows there is that critical threshold in a story where you need to start contracting threadlines in order to make an ending. The ending might be arbitrary but it needs to be firmly set. I mean, didn't he decide on less books at first. Like 3? So it grows a bit, no big deal. He did the story a tremendous service by growing the story. The first 3 books are concise, sharp, and dense. The next two, while panned, I also very much enjoy. Some of the Iron Born chapters are the best he's written. The only problem is, we didn't need Iron Born chapters at this point. He was approaching book 4 of 7. Reasonably it should be a narrative crest in terms of building the stories locations and characters. There is still so much unresolved in Westeros that following Qynten, no matter the narrative connection that Martin has squirreled away in his brain, is superfluous to the main story. We are now 5 books into 7 and we've honestly barely dealt with the wights. I always assumed the coming winter was the primary threat of the story, and the king's war was important but secondary. Now we have another primary character(Tyrion) joining another primary (Dany), when she should have been the hell and fuck out of there at least a book ago. He needs to be pushed to stop falling in love with his world, or to be more concise. Something that has stuck with me for a long time was something Tolkien had said about the beginning of the Lord of the Rings. He was immensely amused and content to just let the Hobbits fuck about and be Hobbits. (My words, obviously. I think he called the Hobbits the c-word). The point is, people love their creations, but honestly the first 100 pages of LOR is the worst. It's just meandering drunken Hobbits being lazy racists.  

 

I give GRRM a massive amount of credit. His books have been the single greatest influence on my writing. They were the first books I really sat down and examined structure and form on, and they changed how I thought. That being said, he's lost the thread here. I'll add the caveat, this is so far as we can tell. He might have a great tapestry in mind and we'll all look like dumb assholes when it comes out. I hope so. I have faith in him that he's got something up his sleeve. But I've also been bitten by this unresolved situation for the decade since I graduated university. So I take it all with a grain of salt. And as he's said he won't pass along the story to anyone if he dies, something needs to be done. Not need need. I mean, i'll still read his books. But as many have mentioned here they have lost the pressing need to follow the story. And that's a shame, because its a great one.

 

As a very side note. Personally I think he should have kept the Red Viper alive and sent Tyrion to Dorne. Narratively it could have resolved a great deal. Like not worrying about the Sand Snakes, or pov's from Doran Martell or his bodyguard. I think the adventures of the Imp and the Viper could have structurally saved him tremendously. I don't know how he would shoehown Daenerys into all of that but I'm also not aware of what his ultimate end run is. I have for the most part found her meanderings to be some of my least favorite chapters.  

[Ninefingers]

 

I never understand the assumption that not only does GRRM not push himself, or react to pushing by the fans, but also that not a single one of GRRM's editors, publishers, family, friends, colleagues, professional collaborators, business associates and partners has ever thought to push him. I put it down to wishful thinking, the notion that an intractable problem actually has an easy answer. 

 

This is wonderfully put.

i think you and I have a fundamental difference of opinion on his level of focus, but you're spot on here. 

[Ninefingers]

There were allegedly specific problems that GRRM had which is why Dance and Feast took so long.  The 5 year gap and the Meereen knot.  But those have been largely addressed.  So the optimists conventional wisdom was that Winds would take less time because GRRM had dealt with those problems that caused so much rewriting.

That appears not to be the case.  Winds is shaping up to overtake Feast in the time it will have taken him to write it.

Just think if in the alternate universe GRRM editors had put their foot down after he put out Feast.  If they had forced him to take an assistant or if an editor had worked with him all along.  We might have gotten Dance out by 2009, that would still have given him 4 years, and maybe a better product, too.  If he had gotten Dance out in 4 not 6 years, then Winds could have been out by 2013!  Still giving him 4 years.  And then, there would be no problem, he could do the last book at his leisure to coincide with the last season of HBO in 2017.  

Think how much better that would be for him.  So much less pressure.  So I say again he has needed tough love for a LONG time.  He does not need to be indulged in his various bad habits that all work together to cause these massive delays and all hurt him more than anyone at the end of the day.

What you're asking for is impossible. He's too famous, and he's the product.

It's like asking for a coach to put his foot down with a superstar athlete. The coach can yell and scream and bluster all they want, but ultimately the customers pay for the athlete not the coach, so that's where that supreme authority lies.

[SevasTra82]

What you're asking for is impossible. He's too famous, and he's the product.

It's like asking for a coach to put his foot down with a superstar athlete. The coach can yell and scream and bluster all they want, but ultimately the customers pay for the athlete not the coach, so that's where that supreme authority lies.

You are correct...GRRM has passed the point where he can be treated like a common Author.  GRRM has entered celebrity status, and as much money as he brings in for Bantam, HBO etc...there is very little anyone can do about his style and pace.  Editors and Publishers can bitch and moan all they want...but at the end of the day, GRRM is their cash cow and he will be treated as such.

But on the note of Editors, I really wonder how many editors he *does* have?  GRRM himself is one heck of an editor, and no doubt edits his own work.  I don't believe he just sends his novels to a random editor at Bantam to look over.  I'm sure there are beta-readers, and people who look over the book for any noticeable flaws and/or mishaps...but actual physical "editing"?  I doubt anyone does it but GRRM himself.

[Arthmail]

I also think its an exaggeration to say that anyone thinks that no one has put their foot down. I'm sure they have, but clearly there is a disconnect in the line somewhere.

[Calibandar]

Dave, you said:

Also, it's worth noting that it's been 4 and a half years since Dance. Dance was 6 years, Feast was 5. So this is currently the 3rd longest wait. I could understand some of the reaction if we'd overtaken Dance, then we really would be looking at a pretty clear trend, but it seems a bit premature. 

We are looking at a blindingly obvious trend, and here you are saying that we are actually not seeing a "pretty clear trend".

This is why I am completely baffled by your opinion. Feast took 5, Dance took 6 years, and for Winds we are in year 5, and counting. If that is not a trend of extreme delays and huge difficulty in writing, I honestly, genuinely, don't know what is. Of course it's a trend.

Well, the numbers are correct......I can only guess that you're referring to the fact that Winds will probably end up taking longer than Feast. Granted. But 5, 6, 5 (I guess we'll probably agree to disagree that 2016 is still likely) is not a increasingly large set of numbers.......I'm gutted that S6 is coming first but people are talking of the series being left incomplete as a foregone conclusion when we're nowhere near that territory yet.

Well, whether or not it will ever be completed is a different story. I certainly don't think it will. I have maintained for 5 years that we will all be extremely lucky to get Winds of Winter. This is a big reason for why I want him to finish the book so badly. It's not just because I want to read it so badly, which I do, it is the book that I thoight Dance would be,  but I don't think he will be able to persevere once more, right from the start, to finish another huge book called Dream of Spring. He'll be in his 70's man. He's not enjoyed writing Dance. He's not enjoyed writing Winds. He is bemoaning the writing itself, the pressure on him from everyone, the deadlines, and the simple fact that it has become a chore. I see 0 signs that after Winds, he will write and complete Dream of Spring, and that has nothing to do with predicting someone's mortality, but rather everything taken together, for a man who is well into retirement age by the time he finishes Winds, be that this year or the next. And again, he will have to start pretty much from scratch on that massive last novel.

I want him to finish Winds so badly, because if the book keeps getting away from him, as it did last year, I thought that even Winds might not be finished. But that book I think, he still has in him. The completion of the series? That is something I long since ceased to expect. Too much time has passed in the writing of AFFC/ADWD/AWOW.

 

 

[mormont]

And he does need to be pushed.

Again, why do you believe he isn't being pushed? Because the book isn't out? That would just be begging the question.

500 words a day is abysmal

No citation has been given for this figure, and I can't find one anywhere. It should probably be treated with some caution.

 

[Celestial]

Well, the numbers are correct......I can only guess that you're referring to the fact that Winds will probably end up taking longer than Feast. Granted. But 5, 6, 5 (I guess we'll probably agree to disagree that 2016 is still likely) is not a increasingly large set of numbers.......I'm gutted that S6 is coming first but people are talking of the series being left incomplete as a foregone conclusion when we're nowhere near that territory yet.

Davesumm, the issue you omit here is that the time needed to complete a book is only half of the problem. The other half is that the pace of the plot has slowed considerably in Feast and Dance. Had Dance concluded some of the key points of the plot (like Daenaerys finally returning to Westeros, the fall of the Lannister regime in KL and of their alliance with Tyrell, the relationship between Dany and Aegon and the place of these new players in the power struggle for the Iron Throne, Littlefinger's end game and Sansa's fate, etc), many of us would be much less anxious. From the look of the first books and author statements/known outlines, it seems ASOIF was intended to have 3 main acts: War of the Five Kings, Targaryen Comeback and Others Invasion. Act One had a solid conclusion in ASOS. But Martin has published two huge ass books since then and still the resolution of Act Two is not anywhere in sight.

According to Martin's own words, the story grew in telling. That is fine. But the issue which baffles many people is that the story apparently keeps growing and is apparent to anyone that a story can't grow forever. It's like climbing a mountain without a peak: at one moment, you will simply run out of air. George should know this, but apparently can't help himself. Ergo, a story which keeps growing and growing at one point becomes unmanageable. It's unavoidable. So, unless Martin has a massive volteface in AWOW and makes the plot flow faster than even in AGOT, we'll reach that point.

So, it's either Martin puts up books faster, or he greatly accelerates the plot. There is no alternative if the series is to have an ending.

[Barristan Whitebeard]

 As a very side note. Personally I think he should have kept the Red Viper alive and sent Tyrion to Dorne. Narratively it could have resolved a great deal. Like not worrying about the Sand Snakes, or pov's from Doran Martell or his bodyguard. I think the adventures of the Imp and the Viper could have structurally saved him tremendously. I don't know how he would shoehown Daenerys into all of that but I'm also not aware of what his ultimate end run is. I have for the most part found her meanderings to be some of my least favorite chapters.  

I really like this. It would have helped streamlining the things a lot. Then, Tyrion could have forged an alliance with Dorne and then travel to bring Daenerys back to Westeros. No Quentyn. No Sand Snakes. No Arianne. No Aero. No Darkstar. No Queenmaker farce. No Jon Con. No Young Griff.

[Mr Fixit]

I really truly honestly believe he lost his muse/inspiration. The first three books proceeded faster, not only in publishing time, but more crucially in the plot developments, because Martin knew pretty well what he wanted to achieve and how to get there. It's pretty much all improv from then on. He lost the story and is scrambling to find it... hence all these detours and sideshows.

People are right to point at Brienne, Quentyn, and others: it's not that those chapters are bad (it's beside the point), it's that there is no reason to introduce all this new stuff so late in the series. To make an analogy, I'm sure Martin could have written a dozen chapters on Ned's and Robert's trip from Winterfell to King's Landing or on the minutiae of Robb mobilising his forces, or a Tyrell PoV in ACoK/ASoS that delves deep into the history of the Reach and the motivation of their rulers, etc, etc. And I'm sure plenty of people would praise the books for those chapters, and who knows, maybe those chapters would have been good, taken in isolation. But c'mon: did we need them? Do the early books suffer for having too few PoVs?

[DaveSumm]

Dave, you said:

We are looking at a blindingly obvious trend, and here you are saying that we are actually not seeing a "pretty clear trend".

This is why I am completely baffled by your opinion. Feast took 5, Dance took 6 years, and for Winds we are in year 5, and counting. If that is not a trend of extreme delays and huge difficulty in writing, I honestly, genuinely, don't know what is. Of course it's a trend.

I should have said 'upward trend' to be fair. I completely agree there's been delays, and difficulty in writing. But so far, nothing to suggest that he's getting worse; I'll retract that if Winds takes 7 years and we're in the 8th year for Dream. But nothing really suggests this will happen.

Well, whether or not it will ever be completed is a different story. I certainly don't think it will. I have maintained for 5 years that we will all be extremely lucky to get Winds of Winter. This is a big reason for why I want him to finish the book so badly. It's not just because I want to read it so badly, which I do, it is the book that I thoight Dance would be,  but I don't think he will be able to persevere once more, right from the start, to finish another huge book called Dream of Spring. He'll be in his 70's man. He's not enjoyed writing Dance. He's not enjoyed writing Winds. He is bemoaning the writing itself, the pressure on him from everyone, the deadlines, and the simple fact that it has become a chore. I see 0 signs that after Winds, he will write and complete Dream of Spring, and that has nothing to do with predicting someone's mortality, but rather everything taken together, for a man who is well into retirement age by the time he finishes Winds, be that this year or the next. And again, he will have to start pretty much from scratch on that massive last novel.

I want him to finish Winds so badly, because if the book keeps getting away from him, as it did last year, I thought that even Winds might not be finished. But that book I think, he still has in him. The completion of the series? That is something I long since ceased to expect. Too much time has passed in the writing of AFFC/ADWD/AWOW.

So you just think he won't finish voluntarily? The quotes from him about enjoying 'having written' as opposed to writing have been posted, but I don't know of him ever saying he didn't enjoy it at all. 

But 'extremely lucky' to get a book that's potentially months away, from a 67 year old? One in which he has never given the slightest indication that he doesn't want to finish? Honestly?

[Calibandar]

No, I thought just after Dance that we would be very lucky to ever get Winds from him.

As time progressed, I got the feeling that Winds, yeah, he might still have that in him. Though clearly it is once again a very bumpy and difficult ride that is still well away from completion, apparently.

As for book 7, it will have nothing to do with being pushed or doing it voluntarily, that is not going to happen. I don't even think that that is a pessimistic view to take, it is staring us straight in the face, and that is not me dissing GRRM. That is a task too gargantuan for which he will be too old as a man in retirement age, especially when the business of writing has become so problematic, cumbersome and plain unenjoyable.The tv show will give us the ending, or at least the highlights version of it.

[DaveSumm]

Davesumm, the issue you omit here is that the time needed to complete a book is only half of the problem. The other half is that the pace of the plot has slowed considerably in Feast and Dance. Had Dance concluded some of the key points of the plot (like Daenaerys finally returning to Westeros, the fall of the Lannister regime in KL and of their alliance with Tyrell, the relationship between Dany and Aegon and the place of these new players in the power struggle for the Iron Throne, Littlefinger's end game and Sansa's fate, etc), many of us would be much less anxious. From the look of the first books and author statements/known outlines, it seems ASOIF was intended to have 3 main acts: War of the Five Kings, Targaryen Comeback and Others Invasion. Act One had a solid conclusion in ASOS. But Martin has published two huge ass books since then and still the resolution of Act Two is not anywhere in sight.

According to Martin's own words, the story grew in telling. That is fine. But the issue which baffles many people is that the story apparently keeps growing and is apparent to anyone that a story can't grow forever. It's like climbing a mountain without a peak: at one moment, you will simply run out of air. George should know this, but apparently can't help himself. Ergo, a story which keeps growing and growing at one point becomes unmanageable. It's unavoidable. So, unless Martin has a massive volteface in AWOW and makes the plot flow faster than even in AGOT, we'll reach that point.

So, it's either Martin puts up books faster, or he greatly accelerates the plot. There is no alternative if the series is to have an ending.

Well this is a separate issue of whether you enjoyed Feast and Dance, I thought they were both excellent. And also a separate issue of whether you think it needs 8 books. I'm always confused at how people can assume that events they have no information on will take more than 3000 MS pages (which is a hell of a lot, remember). But one assumes Martin knows where he needs to be to be one book away, and intends to end Winds there (again, he thought he was three months away in September and no mention of 8 books).

[Cas Stark]

What you're asking for is impossible. He's too famous, and he's the product.

It's like asking for a coach to put his foot down with a superstar athlete. The coach can yell and scream and bluster all they want, but ultimately the customers pay for the athlete not the coach, so that's where that supreme authority lies.

If Ernest Hemmingway and F.Scott Fitzerald could take direction from their editor and revise their material based on the editor's input.  So can GRRM.  

[DaveSumm]

Just to repeat Mormont, there's no reason to think this doesn't happen. He has an editor, Anne Groell in the US and Jane Johnson in the UK. They edited both books, no reason to think they're suddenly afraid of him.