Update on the "Winds"

[honeyed chicken]

He makes more money from TV than books of course he'll wait for show.

and sells 100 times more books!

 

[Sub_Zero94]

Most interesting... He's still writing THEON .  So much for an execution!  

Reading between the lines, I feel he'll have the book's last chapter done by early March ..  Likely we'll have a book in June or July 

[ChillyPolly]

To be honest with you all I'm actually surprised to hear him say that he's only months away from finishing. 

"months away" could include "8 months away" (or more).   "And that's if the writing goes well" could include "and that's if I write 60+ manuscript pages a month and publish when I reach 500 pages plus my current total of 500 pages = 1000 pages"

It really is possible to get a lot of writing done in a few months "if the writing goes well".  

Problem is, the writing has obviously not been going well.  And we have no particular reason to expect that this will change.

As progress updates go, these one sounds even less informative, and even more of a downer, than his February 19, 2009 update on "A Dance with Dragons".  It is nothing compared to the hopeful positive updates he was giving in early 2010, when publication of DANCE was still nearly a year and a half away.

[Lautrec]

Winds - Winter of 2017
Dream - Written by someone a hundred years from now when the copyright expires

is what I would bet on.

[The Human Abstract]

As progress updates go, these one sounds even less informative, and even more of a downer, than his February 19, 2009 update on "A Dance with Dragons".  

To me it appears the tone here is because he really wanted to beat the show, and he failed at his goal.  

[The Fattest Leech]

This is not surprising to me, just very disappointing... but not to the tv "bewbs & blood" boys out there.  < (A statement that came from another site last week that said something along the lines of, " I don't care what happens as long as there are boobs and blood, I'm happy.")

As one who puts words on paper myself, I can understand some of these pressures and it's these pressures along with his tone that have me worried for two reasons. One I won't mention because I like it here too much to get booted, but two because I hope there is still a real chance that the story will be completed by him and not someone else.

Now that I think about it, what happened to the good news sounding update from an editor this past September? http://www.idigitaltimes.com/winds-winter-release-date-editor-provides-hope-new-grrm-novel-might-beat-game-thrones-473510

Also, now that I think about this in addition to that, what are the chances he has been writing Winds and Spring together?

[ChillyPolly]

To me it appears the tone here is because he really wanted to beat the show, and he failed at his goal.  

If you like.  But that disappointment gives him all the more reason to find a silver lining in the cloud, so his loyal fans don't get too discouraged.  The closest we have to a real progress update is that he has "dozens" of chapters written.  Which I suppose means at least 24 chapters. Which probably means at least 500 pages.  If it is substantially more than that, he has not told us.  I'm pretty sure, at least, that he has not crossed the 1000 page mark yet, otherwise he would not be giving his accomplishments in such vague terms as "I've got hundreds of pages written". 

[ChillyPolly]

 

Now that I think about it, what happened to the good news sounding update from an editor this past September? http://www.idigitaltimes.com/winds-winter-release-date-editor-provides-hope-new-grrm-novel-might-beat-game-thrones-473510

That was meaningless non-news, and many of us said so at the time.  The Spanish editors had no special information, and clarified that this was in fact the case.   They merely had the same "hopes" the rest of us had, and wanted their translators to be ready.

Also Cuervo's comments were badly translated to make them seem more hopeful than they actually were.  Anything for click-bait.  Don't believe everything you read.

[The Fattest Leech]

That was meaningless non-news, and many of us said so at the time.  The Spanish editors had no special information, and clarified that this was in fact the case.   They merely had the same "hopes" the rest of us had, and wanted their translators to be ready.

Also Cuervo's comments were badly translated to make them seem more hopeful than they actually were.  Anything for click-bait.

Gotcha. Thanks. That was not the same site I read it from back in September, can't remember which one it actually was, but it sounded fairly good at the time. I guess it was edited by a paid spinner?

[ssls6]

He has been averaging 0.5 finished pages per day on the last two books so I think early 2017 for winds @ 1000 pages.   2022 for the last book. 

[ChillyPolly]

He has been averaging 0.5 finished pages per day on the last two books so I think early 2017 for winds @ 1000 pages.   2022 for the last book. 

I wouldn't rely on that.  What about all his complaints about HBO duties eating into his writing time, slowing down with age, etc. etc.?  What about Anne Groell's admission in June 2014 that she had only received 168 pages from him at that time.

Those were the good old days, when he was younger and had fewer distractions.

[ssls6]

Valid points but I'm assuming he has been pretty famous for the last 5 years or so. Age is a factor so late 2017 is just as valid.  That would make the last book come out by age 75-76 or more.   People slow down dramatically at that age.  I wish him only the best of health so he can finish his life's work.

 

The weird part for me is true authorship of the final work...will he be influenced by what he likes or dislikes from HBOs version of the story?  How can he not be influenced by someone else telling his story before he does?  I can't help but think there will be some impact. 

[The One And Only]

A few years ago, I figured the show would pass the books.  However, I thought it would be for the last season only.  Now we are looking at the last 3 seasons passing the book.  That is sort of shocking.

The news from GRRM now brings up the questions:

1) When can we expect the 7th book?

2) Does he still plan on stopping at 7 books?

[Lady Sansa's Direwolf]

It is entirely possible he is writing both books somewhat together, or at least has outlines for both. My biggest fear has always been GRRM becomes more involved in the other side of the the business (i.e.- cons, award shows, readings, etc.) that writing becomes second to the trappings. As a writer I know, if you ignore the muse or make her wait, she can disappear for a while just to get even. I'm just hoping the series is completed before he dies.

[ChillyPolly]

It is entirely possible he is writing both books somewhat together, 

No.  He shot that idea down himself.

[Adikshith_Ojha]

This got my attention.

I know there's Quentyn in the list as well and he's supposedly dead, but there are plenty of reasons to include him (POV character, many suspect he's still alive, his death is one of the last events in ADwD). But Dalla's been dead since ASoS e she's not an important character at all (al least apparently). Really odd.

Maybe he just wanted to mention all the characters, important or not?

EDIT: Funny how he doesn't mention coldhands and lady stone heart... Could it mean anything?

[Lord Spark of House Spark]

He says that he has written dozens of chapters, which sounds quite encouraging, it infers at least 24 completed. But that

doesn't mean that there are that many completed and handed over to the publishers. Grrm does a lot of rewriting so some of those dozens could be the same chapter written 5 different ways. The only real news is that it is definitely not finished.

I'd like to hope we can see it before Christmas but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't.

It is interesting that he is still writing Theon, as long as it's not just the one chapter.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Dozens is a bad sign, considering Dance had 60-odd chapters. If he said scores I would have been more encouraged.

 

As to my general feelings regarding this revelation...well...best not to express them, I reckon. It won't come across kindly.

[ssls6]

Here is my little cheat sheet...I slowed him down by 10% for winds and another 10% for dreams (ChillyPolly's comments)...

Books	Pages	Publication Date	Delta Days	Pages/Day	Age
A Game of Thrones	694	08/06/1996	0		48
A Clash of Kings	768	11/16/1998	832	0.92	50
A Storm of Swords	973	08/08/2000	631	1.54	52
A Feast for Crows	976	11/08/2005	1918	0.51	57
A Dance with Dragons	1040	07/12/2011	2072	0.50	63
The Winds of Winter	1000	08/11/2017	2222	0.45	69
A Dream of Spring	1000	04/15/2024	2439	0.41	76

 

I only post this to show (without knowing any time frame for book 1) that he has written much faster but not on the last two books.  I do think the last two will be slower still.  I am not a writer but I do manage engineering teams and predicting when a project gets finished is best done by looking at the rate of progress....not exactly rocket science.

 

D&D have said "we don't want the show to go on so long that people say "thank god it's over"" and that "we think 7 seasons are to restrictive".  So if they do 8 seasons (2 more than Sopranos), the final season would be in 2018.  We should have book 6 by then I think but book 7 would still be years and years away.  

 

My own personal belief is that GRRM is endangering his own legacy with the spoils of success.  Sad but very common throughout history.  I'm sure he would violently disagree I think it's pretty clear that the books are now at best a part time job and at worst the real distraction from all that comes with success.  

 

I hope he has laid out enough broad strokes for HBO that their story somewhat matches his grand vision of the story.  I also hope by removing all pretenses of "staying ahead of HBO" he feels more relaxed.  Extra stress from the fandom won't help at all.

[The One And Only]

Here is my little cheat sheet...I slowed him down by 10% for winds and another 10% for dreams (ChillyPolly's comments)...

Books	Pages	Publication Date	Delta Days	Pages/Day	Age
A Game of Thrones	694	08/06/1996	0		48
A Clash of Kings	768	11/16/1998	832	0.92	50
A Storm of Swords	973	08/08/2000	631	1.54	52
A Feast for Crows	976	11/08/2005	1918	0.51	57
A Dance with Dragons	1040	07/12/2011	2072	0.50	63
The Winds of Winter	1000	08/11/2017	2222	0.45	69
A Dream of Spring	1000	04/15/2024	2439	0.41	76

 

I only post this to show (without knowing any time frame for book 1) that he has written much faster but not on the last two books.  I do think the last two will be slower still.

A Dance With Dragons is much slower then what you have.  He had a lot of the book written when he released AFFC.