What is exactly the southern ambition?

[Arrow of the Morning]

I really skeptical about the Southern Ambitions. My mainly issue is  the fact the assumed conspiracy have no clear motivations. The main argument is they wanted to overthrow the Targaryen dynasty or have more powerful and influence against the Iron Throne, but it hardly say why the sudden desire to change after centuries under Targaryen rule.

The match between Robert and Lyanna was - according the app - Robert's idea. He got in love with her and ask for her hand through Ned. We know Robert's feeling for Lyanna and he didn't give a damn for politics and scheming. So not all matches were fruit of political machinations.

And we knew about the SA trough Lady Dustin that is bitter toward the Starks and would resent the man that reject her as Brandon's wife and future Lady of Winterfell.

I think the wedding arrangements and fostering were due the simple friendship between the lords. They fought the Nine Penny War, all together against a enemy coming from outside of Westeros. It was the first time it happened. During all Targaryen dynasty the only war fought were civil wars that cracked the realm in factions. They gathered together because now they see each other as part of a realm.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I doubt it is the first time that the Major Houses have done done this. We see that the Targaryens themselves encouraged these type of alliances from the very start.

It was no great surprise when Queen Rhaenys Targaryen arranged the betrothal of young Ronnel to the daughter of Torrhen Stark, for that was but one of the many such marriages she made in the name of peace

I imagine every time there was a major war there was similar grand alliances made in the aftermath.

[FuzzyJAM]

But the very idea that Rickard was at the center for some anti-Targaryen conspiracy makes little sense - no one would have turned to him for that. The man was the weakest and remotest of the great lords, and had effectively nothing to gain by turning against the Targaryens but everything to gain if he won his favor.

I always got the impression the Iron Islands were the weakest, then Dorne.  Not saying you're wrong, but where are you getting the idea that the Starks are the weakest?

But overall I agree.  I think Rickard's "southron ambitions" are simply to get more involved in the politics of the Seven Kingdoms.  No doubt alliances with the other great lords would help in that.  It seems likely those lords would like more of a role in governing the realm (something like the expansion of the Small Council with a right of every Lord Paramount to appoint a representative, for example), and if they banded together they could certainly exert pressure in that regard, but I don't see anything suggesting a removal of the Targaryens.  

I think there were some moves to remove Aerys near the end of his realm, but that seems more like a natural development of friends banding against an awful ruler rather than the aim from the outset, and Rhaegar would surely be the obvious choice, either as a regent or outright king.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I always got the impression the Iron Islands were the weakest, then Dorne.  Not saying you're wrong, but where are you getting the idea that the Starks are the weakest?

Dorne might be actually weaker but the realm believes they are stronger than what they are. Regardless of the North being stronger than Dorne (or not, it is probably pretty close) the Martells seem to be a richer, more influential House than the Starks.

As for the Iron Born, we have seen the take over realms before, attack both the West and the North quite successfully during the reign of Aerys I. They are certainly not that weak.

The North might be a little stronger than the Iron Islands and Dorne but the Martells and Greyjoys both seem the most powerful House in their realm while it is probably the Manderlys in the North.

[Arrow of the Morning]

I doubt it is the first time that the Major Houses have done done this. We see that the Targaryens themselves encouraged these type of alliances from the very start.

It was no great surprise when Queen Rhaenys Targaryen arranged the betrothal of young Ronnel to the daughter of Torrhen Stark, for that was but one of the many such marriages she made in the name of peace

I imagine every time there was a major war there was similar grand alliances made in the aftermath.

But there is a great difference between this two cases. The marriages arranged by Rhaenys were a forced initiative to unite the realm and such intrusion in their familiar and political issues was not welcome. The brothers of the Stark bride didn't attended her wedding with Lord Arryn, for example. After the Nine Penny War the arrangements were spontaneous. 

[Lord Potsmoke]

Does it really matter? I used to want to understand why he had the Southern Ambitions but I realised that it doesn't matter anyway, hes dead, Lysa is dead, Robert is dead, ned is dead, etc etc, so why like much later in the story do we care what he was trying to do back then? considering we already know it failed anyway.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

But there is a great difference between this two cases. The marriages arranged by Rhaenys were a forced initiative to unite the realm and such intrusion in their familiar and political issues was not welcome. The brothers of the Stark bride didn't attended her wedding with Lord Arryn, for example. After the Nine Penny War the arrangements were spontaneous. 

Of course there is a difference. That was the start of the Kingdom of Westeros, relations are bound to be prickly. Not to mention that the Vale and North had been enemies and had mostly different religions. 

Bur over the next 270 years you'd expect more marriages between the Great Houses. We only have to look at all the Baratheon-Lannister marriages that Ned found in AGOT. Maybe the Starks being involved was a little unusual but there must have been a few other times there was similar alliances.

[Lord Varys]

I always got the impression the Iron Islands were the weakest, then Dorne.  Not saying you're wrong, but where are you getting the idea that the Starks are the weakest?

I was trying to say that the Starks are basically the weakest house in the sense of its political and military weight, even if we concede they can field more troops than the Greyjoys - which I do, of course. The North is too remote, and it really can't afford getting entangled in the Southern affairs. We see this in the series. Any King in the North or Lord of Winterfell marching down opens his flank to the enemies beyond the Wall and/or foreign invaders who come from the sea (Ironborn, peoples from Essos).

After the Nine Penny War the arrangements were spontaneous. 

There is no reason to believe that the War of the Ninepenny Kings had anything to do with any of the marriages/betrothals that were arranged in the 270s and 280s. We don't even know whether Lord Rickard even participated in that war (one assumes that if that had been the case Yandel might have mentioned it in TWoIaF, especially if it was an important point of the overall plot affecting the backstory of the series).

I've said it often times: The Lyanna-Robert match was made Robert Baratheon, not Rickard Stark. Robert wanted to marry Ned's sister, and Ned negotiated with his father on Robert's behalf. Rickard's cousins in the Vale might have been the people arranging Ned becoming Jon's ward. There is no reason to assume that Rickard and Jon were friends or even particularly close to each other. The whole thing of Robert and Ned becoming friends might have been a huge coincidence. It is not uncommon for young nobles and princes to grow up together. Aerys, Tywin, and Steffon apparently were the same.

Allegiances change rather easily, and marriages are by no means a guarantee or even a good way to create a lasting peace or even an alliance.

[sciteacher]

Vale didnt need to, fostering was even better. When you put two kids to a 60yo he will love them like would love his own and more so it was more than certain he will go for it. Iron Isles are so inimportant aand miserable I wont even go i to it.

Do you have an idea who is behind all that? Jon isnt, Robert too young, Lannisters arent too because they rejected Martells, Rickard isnt because he will use his sons arrest to call banners and not come to KL alone. Greyjojys arent too, so we really have Tullys, Martells, Tyrells and maesters. Or maybe Iron bank? They wanted war so they could empty realms reserves and force them to ask money from IB?

Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, Tywin Lannister, Rickard Stark, and Hoster Tully all fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings. There is a blog post on the Southron Ambitions I liked: http://asongoftheories.tumblr.com/post/91180275210/southron-ambitions

[Lord Varys]

Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, Tywin Lannister, Rickard Stark, and Hoster Tully all fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings. There is a blog post on the Southron Ambitions I liked: http://asongoftheories.tumblr.com/post/91180275210/southron-ambitions

Again, there is no textual evidence that Rickard participated in that war. There is also no evidence that the Starks even sent troops to fight on the Stepstones. In light of the fact that Rickard was an only child and at that time possibly the last male Stark left, it is exceedingly unlikely that he personally went down south even if the North sent a token force to the king's help.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Again, there is no textual evidence that Rickard participated in that war. There is also no evidence that the Starks even sent troops to fight on the Stepstones. In light of the fact that Rickard was an only child and at that time possibly the last male Stark left, it is exceedingly unlikely that he personally went down south even if the North sent a token force to the king's help.

I think in 260 there is a good chance that Edwyle, Artos and his twin sons were around as well as Rodrik the Wandering Wolf. Rodrik serving would explain him marrying one of his daughters to a House so far away in the Stormlands.

As the wars with Skagos, Ironborn and Wildlings had already happened the Nine Penny wars seems the best way for GRRM to get rid of some of the excess Starks that are still on the tree.

[Lord Varys]

I think in 260 there is a good chance that Edwyle, Artos and his twin sons were around as well as Rodrik the Wandering Wolf. Rodrik serving would explain him marrying one of his daughters to a House so far away in the Stormlands.

As the wars with Skagos, Ironborn and Wildlings had already happened the Nine Penny wars seems the best way for GRRM to get rid of some of the excess Starks that are still on the tree.

Or not ;-) One assumes that Yandel would have mentioned it if the Starks had fought during that war, even more so if some of them had died during the fighting. He did mention all the stuff about the Baratheons, the Greyjoys, the Lannisters/Westermen, and the Dornishmen participating in the war. Why not also mention the Starks if they had been there?

Considering how quickly Jaehaerys II mustered his army, and how quickly it was dispatched, it is not very likely that there was time for the Starks to raise a host and bring it to KL in time.

The great winter from 230-236 AC could easily have taken its toll on Starks. After all, winter is supposed to be a season during which nobody parties... Especially not the Starks.

[SeanF]

Put it like this, if I were Kiing of Westeros, I would certainly be suspicious of an alliance being formed between four Lords Paramount (Tully, Stark, Baratheon,  Arryn).  There's no external enemy of any significance that they have to unite against, so who else would they be uniting against except me?

That's not to say that they were planning on immediately overthrowing the Targaryens, but any attempt by a future king to reinstate the reforms of Aegon V would surely meet a very formidable opposing coalition.

 

[Lord Varys]

Put it like this, if I were Kiing of Westeros, I would certainly be suspicious of an alliance being formed between four Lords Paramount (Tully, Stark, Baratheon,  Arryn).  There's no external enemy of any significance that they have to unite against, so who else would they be uniting against except me?

That's not to say that they were planning on immediately overthrowing the Targaryens, but any attempt by a future king to reinstate the reforms of Aegon V would surely meet a very formidable opposing coalition.

Jon Arryn wasn't part of this whole 'marriage alliance'. Not until shortly before the Trident. And we see what good it did Ned, Jon, and Robert to have Hoster as their 'dear friend'. The man forced Jon Arryn to marry Lysa before he agreed to commit himself to their cause. Not to mention that half of his bannermen still stuck with the Targaryens.

The only contracts that were made are Brandon-Catelyn and Robert-Lyanna, and the latter was completely Robert's idea having nothing to do with any politicking and scheming.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Or not ;-) One assumes that Yandel would have mentioned it if the Starks had fought during that war, even more so if some of them had died during the fighting. He did mention all the stuff about the Baratheons, the Greyjoys, the Lannisters/Westermen, and the Dornishmen participating in the war. Why not also mention the Starks if they had been there?

Do you not think the opposite is true? That the North being the only realm not to participate would be more notewothy than them being involved.

The World book gives no mention to the Stormlands, Vale, Riverlands, Reach or North being involved but with the Hand being a Baratheon we presume they were involved and the knowledge that Hoster and Baelish snr forged their relationship in the war suggests their two regions were involved. And it seems highly unlikely that the competitive Tyrells would send bupkis as the Lannisters send 11,000.

Considering how quickly Jaehaerys II mustered his army, and how quickly it was dispatched, it is not very likely that there was time for the Starks to raise a host and bring it to KL in time.

According to the World book the threat of the band of Nine was even known to Aegon, and it suggests that 259 was the year that war started being planned.

THE TRAGEDY OF Summerhall brought Jaehaerys, the Second of His Name, to the Iron Throne in 259 AC. Scarcely had he donned the crown than the Seven Kingdoms found themselves plunged into war, for the Ninepenny Kings had taken and sacked the Free City of Tyrosh and seized the Stepstones; from there, they stood poised to attack Westeros.

I doubt it was a large force, more akin to the Winterwolves sent with Lord Dustin during the Dance, but I am pretty confident a force was sent.

 

[Arrow of the Morning]

Of course there is a difference. That was the start of the Kingdom of Westeros, relations are bound to be prickly. Not to mention that the Vale and North had been enemies and had mostly different religions. 

Bur over the next 270 years you'd expect more marriages between the Great Houses. We only have to look at all the Baratheon-Lannister marriages that Ned found in AGOT. Maybe the Starks being involved was a little unusual but there must have been a few other times there was similar alliances.

The fact marriages between Great Houses were rare is a oddity. I think before the Targaryen conquest the different royal houses married each other for peace and to join in war against a common enemy. May be the fact they had no enemies in common and don't had close ties explain that.

[Arrow of the Morning]

There is no reason to believe that the War of the Ninepenny Kings had anything to do with any of the marriages/betrothals that were arranged in the 270s and 280s. We don't even know whether Lord Rickard even participated in that war (one assumes that if that had been the case Yandel might have mentioned it in TWoIaF, especially if it was an important point of the overall plot affecting the backstory of the series).

I've said it often times: The Lyanna-Robert match was made Robert Baratheon, not Rickard Stark. Robert wanted to marry Ned's sister, and Ned negotiated with his father on Robert's behalf. Rickard's cousins in the Vale might have been the people arranging Ned becoming Jon's ward. There is no reason to assume that Rickard and Jon were friends or even particularly close to each other. The whole thing of Robert and Ned becoming friends might have been a huge coincidence. It is not uncommon for young nobles and princes to grow up together. Aerys, Tywin, and Steffon apparently were the same.

Allegiances change rather easily, and marriages are by no means a guarantee or even a good way to create a lasting peace or even an alliance.

Again, there is no textual evidence that Rickard participated in that war. There is also no evidence that the Starks even sent troops to fight on the Stepstones. In light of the fact that Rickard was an only child and at that time possibly the last male Stark left, it is exceedingly unlikely that he personally went down south even if the North sent a token force to the king's help.

Actually, there is a evidence that the North send men to this war. Barbrey Dustin mention a uncle of Willam Dustin that gained renown in the NPW. We don't have direct evidence for Rickard participation, but it would be expected from him to lead the northern army; it is the duty of a king or lord to command the military forces of his house and it was his duty as Warden of the North as well. Other Lord Paramount were not cited as well, Reach, Dorne, but is hard to assume that they and the armies of their regions didn't participated. The only Great Lord that is mentioned that he didn't lead his troops (and in a very negative way) was Tytos Lannister.

About Rickard and Jon Arryn it is possible they were friends. Rickard went south in some occasion in the past (according the Queen of Thorns) and you don't ask someone to foster your kid if you don't have the minimal friendship with that person.

Allegiances change rather easily, and marriages are by no means a guarantee or even a good way to create a lasting peace or even an alliance.

Marriages are not a 100% formula to get peace, actually nothing is, but blooties are better than words and shacking hands. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

 

Actually, there is a evidence that the North send men to this war. Barbrey Dustin mention a uncle of Willam Dustin that gained renown in the NPW.

Awesome find.

An uncle famed for his prowess with an axe, a great-uncle who had fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

[purple-eyes]

Awesome find.

An uncle famed for his prowess with an axe, a great-uncle who had fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

actually in app, it is said that those pacts between house stark, tully and Arryn, are the results of war of nine penny kings. Just like how LF was sent to riverrun. 

So apparently north played a role in this war and maybe Rickard himself was there too. 

[Lord Varys]

Do you not think the opposite is true? That the North being the only realm not to participate would be more notewothy than them being involved.

The World book gives no mention to the Stormlands, Vale, Riverlands, Reach or North being involved but with the Hand being a Baratheon we presume they were involved and the knowledge that Hoster and Baelish snr forged their relationship in the war suggests their two regions were involved. And it seems highly unlikely that the competitive Tyrells would send bupkis as the Lannisters send 11,000.

According to the World book the threat of the band of Nine was even known to Aegon, and it suggests that 259 was the year that war started being planned.

THE TRAGEDY OF Summerhall brought Jaehaerys, the Second of His Name, to the Iron Throne in 259 AC. Scarcely had he donned the crown than the Seven Kingdoms found themselves plunged into war, for the Ninepenny Kings had taken and sacked the Free City of Tyrosh and seized the Stepstones; from there, they stood poised to attack Westeros.

I doubt it was a large force, more akin to the Winterwolves sent with Lord Dustin during the Dance, but I am pretty confident a force was sent.

Well, there are great houses mentioned who backed the Targaryens during the Blackfyre Rebellions, most notably the Arryns and the Lannisters. Those would include the War of the Ninepenny Kings, too. It seems as if the Starks were never involved in any Blackfyre Rebellion at all.

Granted, the Stormlords may have stood out of the war, but if this was the case it would have been very odd due to Lord Ormund commanding the army and his heir accompanying him. They would have went to the Stepstones with their own men. But we don't know how much they took.

Hoster and Brynden may have been on the Stepstones with their own men - or not. At that time, Hoster may not have been Lord Tully yet, and the Tully brothers may have joined the war simply to win glory. As might have Lord Baelish. That's not what I believe. I think the all the southern regions provided the Iron Throne with a number of troops.

There might have been even some Northmen, but if Rickard was the last male Stark left at that point it is very unlikely that he left Winterfell due to the whole 'There must always be a Stark in Winterfell' thing.

 

Actually, there is a evidence that the North send men to this war. Barbrey Dustin mention a uncle of Willam Dustin that gained renown in the NPW. We don't have direct evidence for Rickard participation, but it would be expected from him to lead the northern army; it is the duty of a king or lord to command the military forces of his house and it was his duty as Warden of the North as well. Other Lord Paramount were not cited as well, Reach, Dorne, but is hard to assume that they and the armies of their regions didn't participated. The only Great Lord that is mentioned that he didn't lead his troops (and in a very negative way) was Tytos Lannister.

About Rickard and Jon Arryn it is possible they were friends. Rickard went south in some occasion in the past (according the Queen of Thorns) and you don't ask someone to foster your kid if you don't have the minimal friendship with that person.

Marriages are not a 100% formula to get peace, actually nothing is, but blooties are better than words and shacking hands. 

Can you quote the relevant passage? Or point we towards it? I honestly don't remember that.

Rickard clearly was south at court, we know that from Yandel's account on Aerys' reign, but that doesn't mean he and Jon Arryn were particularly close. Sure, I think Rickard and the Stark family later visited Ned in the Vale a couple of times, which is the explanation how Robert knew and fell in love with Lyanna, but you don't have to be close with somebody if you want to foster your child with him or her.

Walder Frey wasn't close with Jon Arryn and still asked him to take one of his sons or grandsons as wards. Robert thought fostering Robert Arryn with Tywin Lannister would be a huge honor despite the fact that Jon Arryn and Tywin Lannister weren't exactly best friends (and neither were Lysa and Tywin). Jon Arryn himself decided to foster his son with Stannis who wasn't his friend, either. And so on.

The general problem I have with the 'conspiracy aspect' of this theory is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to forge a huge alliance network based on marriage and/or short-lived personal friendships - Tywin/Steffon and Ned/Robert but their children are not. More importantly, the whole thing is a sort of marriage network, not an alliance between only two parties. If that worked and forged lasting bonds the Brackens and Blackwoods would no longer be at war, and the Hightowers and Tarlys would fight with Stannis due to the fact that they are connected to each other via their marriage bonds to the Florents.

In my opinion, the alliance that eventually toppled the Targaryens was a historical accident, essentially born out of the fact that Aerys/the court greatly misjudged the situation due to the whole Rhaegar paranoia as well as the strong devotion of the childless Jon Arryn to his former wards. The latter must have been an aspect nobody foresaw in all that.