Royal Bank of Scotland says "sell everything"; conomic crisis peaking over the horizon?

[Commodore]

I'm shocked, shocked the stock market is crashing after Yellen raised interest rates. 

They claim to not look at the stock market, but how long will she let this go on before slashing rates and starting up QE4?

Gotta reinflate that bubble.

[Tears of Lys]

Anyone want to join me as I jump out of this building?   

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

ToL,

You're kidding, right.  I see the market in a slide but that happens from time to time.  Are you saying this is more serious than we think?

[Kalbear]

On 1/18/2016 at 8:31 PM, Commodore said:

I'm shocked, shocked the stock market is crashing after Yellen raised interest rates. 

They claim to not look at the stock market, but how long will she let this go on before slashing rates and starting up QE4?

Gotta reinflate that bubble.

The apparent causes of the market crash have apparently zero to do with interest rates - unless you believe that the oil prices and the Chinese market shenanigans are primarily caused by interest rate changes. 

[Marcus Agrippa]

QE doesn't solve anything, it puts the problem off, the fed have no idea how to solve this mess, and neither do I.

[Tears of Lys]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

ToL,

You're kidding, right.  I see the market in a slide but that happens from time to time.  Are you saying this is more serious than we think?

No, I **am** kidding.  Frankly, I wouldn't know if it's more serious than we think any more than many of the so-called experts do.  But we're not selling anything, especially in this market.  I was mostly just obliquely commenting on the general shit-state the market's in right now.  As I write this, we're down almost 500 points.  When we get our statements in showing how much our stocks have tanked, then I'll probably gulp a little bit and then carry on with my life.

We're diversified, though, so that cushions the hurt a bit, municipal bonds, annuities of various sorts, and that kind of thing. 

[Marcus Agrippa]

1 minute ago, Tears of Lys said:

No, I **am** kidding.  Frankly, I wouldn't know if it's more serious than we think any more than many of the so-called experts do.  But we're not selling anything, especially in this market.  I was mostly just obliquely commenting on the general shit-state the market's in right now.  As I write this, we're down almost 500 points.  When we get our statements in showing how much our stocks have tanked, then I'll probably gulp a little bit and then carry on with my life.

We're diversified, though, so that cushions the hurt a bit, municipal bonds, annuities of various sorts, and that kind of thing. 

ToL what do you do?

[Tears of Lys]

I'm a court reporter.  At one time I made a very good living, but I'm semi-retired now.  I have my husband to thank for the disciplined saving habit we've practiced.  He was in sales management all his career.  A LOT of sacrifices have gone into what we've achieved.  But, honestly, I wish we'd have enjoyed ourselves more along the way. 

[Marcus Agrippa]

1 minute ago, Tears of Lys said:

I'm a court reporter.  At one time I made a very good living, but I'm semi-retired now.  I have my husband to thank for the disciplined saving habit we've practiced.  He was in sales management all his career.  A LOT of sacrifices have gone into what we've achieved.  But, honestly, I wish we'd have enjoyed ourselves more along the way. 

I watch the market, I astill tech an econ major, but I am bored with it so I am moving into family sciences. As for the market, this could be reaction and where it matters to some people do to savings, I suspect there will be some swings in either direction for the rest of the month. However, the market hasn't been healthy since the late 90's. The fed only has QE as a bullet in my opinion. They have no other options except for extreme measures.

[Greywolf2375]

4 minutes ago, Tears of Lys said:

I'm a court reporter.  At one time I made a very good living, but I'm semi-retired now.  I have my husband to thank for the disciplined saving habit we've practiced.  He was in sales management all his career.  A LOT of sacrifices have gone into what we've achieved.  But, honestly, I wish we'd have enjoyed ourselves more along the way. 

I'm in sales management now and while it is painful to see and experience, it is also a huge opportunity to help people really set themselves for their future and how they are going to get there.  Financial planning is a must

[Fragile Bird]

I'm sort of bemused by these comments.  I view this as a normal market correction that still has a way to go.

Markets 'correct' by about 10% [technically, corrections run between 10% and 20%] every couple of years, strongly correct anywhere from 5 to 15 years apart, and a depression occurs about every 80 years.  We had the worst market in 2009 since 1929.  The market high close on October 9, 2007 was 14,164.53, and the market dropped 7,657.49 points to hit a low of 6,507.04, on March 9, 2009.  That was a drop of about 54%.

A bear market is a market that falls 20% [or more]  The Dow Jones market high close was 18,312 on May 19, 2015.  That means the Dow went up 11,805 points, almost 280%, from the 2009 low.  A 20% drop would be 3,662 points, or down to 14,650.  Right now the Dow is at 15,739, so the market could very well drop more than another thousand points and be well within a normal market correction.  And bear markets don't necessarily stop at 20%.

In the last 80 years we have had 10 bear markets, and the average drop is 33% (which would be about 6,000 points off of 18,312) and on average took 490 days to get down to the low, 15 months.  So people are predicting we will have a volatile market all year long.  The bear then took an average of 22 months to fully recover.  ie. 2019.

Such is life.

ETA:  I had to try three different browsers to post, and Chrome cut me off after 3 sentences.  Am using Firefox, for those of you having problems as well.

 

[maarsen]

As noted before, I am waiting for the market to hit bottom so I can buy more stocks for my retirement fund. I have been trough bad recessions before. The 1990 downturn was always ranked as the worst since the 1930's and I survived that one reasonably well. I expect to see 2 to 3 more before I die.

[Wade1865]

On January 21, 2016 at 2:50 PM, maarsen said:

As noted before, I am waiting for the market to hit bottom so I can buy more stocks for my retirement fund. I have been trough bad recessions before. The 1990 downturn was always ranked as the worst since the 1930's and I survived that one reasonably well. I expect to see 2 to 3 more before I die.

Smart man.  I was too young to exploit 1990 (?) and too poor for 2001, but I started in 2008, stocks; 2011, real estate; BP oil fiasco; and BAC.  Maintaining real estate and jumping in on oil now.  All successes a consequence of bad times and -- literally -- blood on the streets if you count my years at in IRQ and AFG, 2007-2014.  Economic power is the ultimate factor toward individual sovereignty as demonstrated by the power held by the rentier and moneyed classes.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Wade,

long time no post.

[Wade1865]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Wade,

long time no post.

I remember you; time flies, man.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

I'm inclined to use analogy here, and in light of the 5th Anniversary of the Earthquake in Christchurch New Zealand just having been observed and eathquake anaolgy seems apt.

When you have massive earthquakes, you get aftershocks, and sometimes big ones, for several years after. Cue the fairly hefty 5.2(?) earthquake that brought down part of a cliff that was technically an aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. And of course a lot of Christchuch still hasn't been rebuilt and thousands of people are still fighting with insurance companies to get their claims sorted out. 

The world hasn't recovered from the economic earthquake of 2008, and whatever crap might happen this year I see as an aftershock of 2008.

Also, my understanding is that we pretty much haven't gone a single decade since the great depression without the workd suffering from some sort of global economic earthquake, of differing magnitudes of course. So I don't see why this decade would be any different, since we're still pretty much doing the same shit as we have been for the last 100 years.

[The Marquis de Leech]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

my understanding is that we pretty much haven't gone a single decade since the great depression without the workd suffering from some sort of global economic earthquake, of differing magnitudes of course. 

Nah, the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s were devoid of economic earthquakes. Financial crises as we know them today are an offshoot of the deregulatory era - thus the Latin American Debt crisis in 1982, the Asian Crisis in 1997, and the mother of them all in 2008.

[The Anti-Targ]

17 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Nah, the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s were devoid of economic earthquakes. Financial crises as we know them today are an offshoot of the deregulatory era - thus the Latin American Debt crisis in 1982, the Asian Crisis in 1997, and the mother of them all in 2008.

I dunno. There are arguments to say that during WWII there was a lot of economic depression, unless you were directly economically involved in the war, like making bullets. There was also economic contraction immediately after the war, at least according to Wikipedia. The war side of the economies seem to have masked the shittyness of the private side of the economy that was not directly benefitting from war spending.

Also according to a few references I've quickly Googled there were economic recessions that would qualify as at least minor earth quakes in the 50s and 60s. Perhaps nothing on the scale of 2008 and 1929, but still they are there.