NFL 2016 Playoffs: The Kool-aid Guy vs. the Sith Lord Edition

[Nictarion]

I think they almost have to fine him (may be big too due to him getting $50,000 for the Williams hit) though I think it's probably overkill. I'm assuming Porter, Munchak, and Shazier for the Steelers, and Burfict and Jones for the Bengals.

He's already losing almost a 1/4 of his salary for the season. Fining him on top of that would be excessive imo.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

  

“When I coached at Oregon, he was tailor made for [the system],” Kelly said to CSNPhilly. [Cut to every college football analyst nodding head, drooling.]

“He broke my heart. I love the kid. I think he's a hell of a football player,” Kelly added.

 

@AdamSchefter says Rams, 'Boys, 49ers have looked hard at Manziel at some point. And Chip Kelly. "Somebody's gonna roll the dice on him."

 

[Rhom]

 

I miss the like button...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Brown is out verse the Broncos

[Mexal]

Brown is out verse the Broncos

So Burfict basically knocked out Ben, Brown and Bell, the holy trinity. Wow.

[unJon]

Brown is out verse the Broncos

Ugh. And the line goes to +7 and maybe even climbs from there.

File under "sports betting markets are irrational": the betting public is heavily on Sea driving the line down to +1.

[unJon]

So Burfict basically knocked out Ben, Brown and Bell, the holy trinity. Wow.

I wonder if Burthug considers a one-game-per-player-knocked-out suspension a fair trade.

[Rockroi]

So, I have some thoughts on who may win this week:

Chiefs over Patriots: My fan-boyness wants to say "Pats 27 KC 17" but I can't do it.  EVERYTHING points to the Chiefs here.  Chiefs D has been killing it; the offense is on a 11-game winning streak.  They have a very good (not great_ QB and a very good (not great) head coach.

Meanwhile, Pats have not played a good game since first week of November and have lost 4 of their last 6.  Edleman has not played in two months; Gronk has a knee injury and reports are he went to the hospital and had a shot; Chandler Jones was whacked out on fake weed.  The O-line is in ruins with a probably half-dead Sebastian Volmer holding it together.  And, yeah, no running game to speak of. 

The counter to that is usually "Well... Brady and Belichick!"  But that's not analysis.  The best points for this game for Pats: D is, physically, still close to 100% healthy.  The offense, maybe, has been resting in prep for the playoffs.  And Edleman being back means quicker reads for Brady so the O-line depletion will be minimized.  And maybe Gronk will be back to pre-Broncos form (his stats at the end of the season have been hit or miss; he disappeared for the last two weeks which does not bode well).  Also, KC DID lose Maclin; Houston has been hobbled with a leg injury; the D is not as good as it was back in the Fall 2014 when the Chiefs TROUNCED the Pats.  

With that said, I think this season, the Pats were just snake-bit with injuries, could not get into a groove.  I have a bad feeling about this one.  KC 27 Pats 20

Cards over Packers: Last week, a resurgent Packers defeated a very bad playoff team.  So, yes, everyone LETS OVERREACT TO THIS!!!!  Packers still have a WR problem a RB problem (he's a fatty boomballaty).  Arizona has played great all season, save the last week where, I think the record shows, they didn't actually try.  Zona is rested, great on both sides of the ball and looking ready to rip the head off a slightly over-achieving Packers team.  Cards 31 Pack 20

Seattle over Panthers: I am sort of hedging my bets here (there is USUALLY one OUTRAGEOUS upset in the Div round... so if the Pats stave off elimination, I think its here.... sort of).  The Seahawks are the veteran type of team that can travel and then play a disciplined, dedicated 60-min game of football against a team like the Panthers who MAY be a tad bit overconfident.  Seattle's D can still be good and I think they could frustrate an O that has been, lets face it, pedestrian.  I think its a gob-smacker of an upset,  Seahawks 33 Panthers 17. 

Broncos over Steelers: Brown is OUT and Rothlesberger should not be IN.  The Broncos O is putrid because Manning was, when he was pulled, the worst QB in the NFL (or close enough as to make no matter).  BUT... he will be well-rested and has had time to prep.  The Broncos D is exceptional.  The Steelers cannot run, pass or throw.  Their D is pedestrian.  But other than that it should be a great game.  Broncos 23 Steelers 16.

[Mexal]

I wonder if Burthug considers a one-game-per-player-knocked-out suspension a fair trade.

Doubt it. Two of the hits were legal. And it's not like the Bengals have fared any better. Last year, Green was knocked out of the playoffs cause of Mitchell, this year Dalton went down (his fault) for season and Eifert was concussed for 3 games by Mitchell again, not to mention Gio still being dead. That's just the big time players. Lots of other players got injured on both sides. These games suck.

[Maithanet]

 

Cards over Packers: Last week, a resurgent Packers defeated a very bad playoff team.  So, yes, everyone LETS OVERREACT TO THIS!!!!  Packers still have a WR problem a RB problem (he's a fatty boomballaty).  Arizona has played great all season, save the last week where, I think the record shows, they didn't actually try.  Zona is rested, great on both sides of the ball and looking ready to rip the head off a slightly over-achieving Packers team.  Cards 31 Pack 20

I agree, I don't know why everyone seems to think that the Packers are "back" for beating the Redskins.  Our defense has made a lot of terrible offenses look good.  Kellen Moore passed for over 400 yards against us in week 17.  The only thing that changed about the Packers is that their O line (namely Bulaga) has gotten a little more healthy.  But given that the Packers gave up 8 sacks to Arizona in December, I somehow doubt an incremental improvement is going to do it.  I expect they give up just 4 sacks this time, and lose by only 14. 

[Fez]

So, I have some thoughts on who may win this week:

Chiefs over Patriots: My fan-boyness wants to say "Pats 27 KC 17" but I can't do it.  EVERYTHING points to the Chiefs here.  Chiefs D has been killing it; the offense is on a 11-game winning streak.  They have a very good (not great_ QB and a very good (not great) head coach.

Meanwhile, Pats have not played a good game since first week of November and have lost 4 of their last 6.  Edleman has not played in two months; Gronk has a knee injury and reports are he went to the hospital and had a shot; Chandler Jones was whacked out on fake weed.  The O-line is in ruins with a probably half-dead Sebastian Volmer holding it together.  And, yeah, no running game to speak of. 

The counter to that is usually "Well... Brady and Belichick!"  But that's not analysis.  The best points for this game for Pats: D is, physically, still close to 100% healthy.  The offense, maybe, has been resting in prep for the playoffs.  And Edleman being back means quicker reads for Brady so the O-line depletion will be minimized.  And maybe Gronk will be back to pre-Broncos form (his stats at the end of the season have been hit or miss; he disappeared for the last two weeks which does not bode well).  Also, KC DID lose Maclin; Houston has been hobbled with a leg injury; the D is not as good as it was back in the Fall 2014 when the Chiefs TROUNCED the Pats.  

With that said, I think this season, the Pats were just snake-bit with injuries, could not get into a groove.  I have a bad feeling about this one.  KC 27 Pats 20

Your reverse jinx holds no power here.

Its true that the Pats chances rely on their health. But with the bye I think they'll be healthier than expected overall. And KC is still coached by Reid. If its a close game, there's better than even chance he'll make some sort of clock management error that lets the Pats pull ahead.

[Maithanet]

Your reverse jinx holds no power here.

Its true that the Pats chances rely on their health. But with the bye I think they'll be healthier than expected overall. And KC is still coached by Reid. If its a close game, there's better than even chance he'll make some sort of clock management error that lets the Pats pull ahead.

Plus, the Pats defense is still pretty good, and KC lost Maclin.  It is hard to imagine the Chiefs really putting away the Patriots, unless their running attack is a lot more effective than I expect.  There is a good chance it comes down to late game execution and coaching, and based on that, I know where to bet.

[Jaime L]

File under "sports betting markets are irrational": the betting public is heavily on Sea driving the line down to +1.

Why is that irrational?

I get it's an early East Coast road game (Seattle keeps getting fucked in this regard). But there's several metrics that have Seattle as the flat better team (i.e.: FO). They've also beaten the Panthers, IIRC, 4 of the last 5 times. The only loss was early this year before the Seahawks had rounded into their current form and even that was close. 

The primary concern with taking Seattle for me would be possible knock on effects coming off the Arctic Bowl they just played. Have no idea how that affects a team. There's no template for it. The two cases where a road team won a frigid game: Giants over Packers in the 2007 NFCG and Ravens over Broncos in the 2012 divisional playoffs...that same team won its next game. But neither game was cold like that. 

[Mexal]

Has anyone seen fines come out for the Steelers/Bengals game? Shazier has already come out and said he wasn't fined for his decapitation of Gio which is unbelievable bullshit. I haven't seen any others yet and it's now Friday.

[Nictarion]

 

I wonder if Burthug considers a one-game-per-player-knocked-out suspension a fair trade.

 

The Bell and Ben plays were perfectly clean. I also don't like the "thug" bs. Call him a dirty player, he is, but the kid has never been in trouble off the field. He's not a thug.

[Rockroi]

Your reverse jinx holds no power here.

YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH!!!

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

Why is that irrational?

I get it's an early East Coast road game (Seattle keeps getting fucked in this regard). But there's several metrics that have Seattle as the flat better team (i.e.: FO). They've also beaten the Panthers, IIRC, 4 of the last 5 times. The only loss was early this year before the Seahawks had rounded into their current form and even that was close. 

The primary concern with taking Seattle for me would be possible knock on effects coming off the Arctic Bowl they just played. Have no idea how that affects a team. There's no template for it. The two cases where a road team won a frigid game: Giants over Packers in the 2007 NFCG and Ravens over Broncos in the 2012 divisional playoffs...that same team won its next game. But neither game was cold like that. 

But that game was also in Seattle, with Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham (who had 140 yards)

[Maithanet]

But that game was also in Seattle, with Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham (who had 140 yards)

Plus, while the Seahawks have beaten the Panthers consistently in 2012-2014, all those games were close too.  And this 2015 Panthers team is a lot better than those teams.  If their defense has used the bye to heal up and get back to playing solid football, I expect a close Panthers win. 

[Jaime L]

But that game was also in Seattle, with Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham (who had 140 yards)

They've played way better since those two guys went down. 

Plus, while the Seahawks have beaten the Panthers consistently in 2012-2014, all those games were close too.  And this 2015 Panthers team is a lot better than those teams.  If their defense has used the bye to heal up and get back to playing solid football, I expect a close Panthers win. 

Yeah but if every game these two teams play is close, doesn't that fundamentally favor the underdog? 

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Why is that irrational?

I get it's an early East Coast road game (Seattle keeps getting fucked in this regard). But there's several metrics that have Seattle as the flat better team (i.e.: FO). They've also beaten the Panthers, IIRC, 4 of the last 5 times. The only loss was early this year before the Seahawks had rounded into their current form and even that was close. 

The primary concern with taking Seattle for me would be possible knock on effects coming off the Arctic Bowl they just played. Have no idea how that affects a team. There's no template for it. The two cases where a road team won a frigid game: Giants over Packers in the 2007 NFCG and Ravens over Broncos in the 2012 divisional playoffs...that same team won its next game. But neither game was cold like that. 

Tend to agree. I like the Panthers in this game, and I like the line, but I don't think it's outrageous. This game is closer to a "pick" than any other contest this weekend. And the line reflects that.