NFL 2016 Playoffs: The Kool-aid Guy vs. the Sith Lord Edition

[Maithanet]

And anecdotally if I think back on the big plays he made this year, almost all came with a nearly perfectly clean pocket.  It's great he's making those plays, but by its very nature that alone won't beat good teams.

 

Going into the season, people said Cousins was like the poor man's Jay Cutler.  Now we're worried he's the poor man's Kurt Warner.  That's definitely a step up. 

Some quarterbacks just aren't going to be very good with a poor O line, and their teams need to adjust accordingly.  Warner definitely, although I think Brees suffers from this to a lesser extent, partly due to his height.  Our O line was good this year, but it was far from great.  A better running attack would help take some of the pressure off, and losing Lict and Lavaou for most of the season obviously didn't help either. 

I bet he picks that instinct up. It's just basically okay, better to just take the sack there than to have tried to make a play. 

I don't think that's the moral of that play at all.  Jackson is wide open, you gotta make that play.  Cousins failed to keep himself in a throwing position so that when a guy did get open he couldn't throw accurately.  All the best quarterbacks are wizards at getting/keeping their feet set. 

[Jaime L]

I bet he picks that instinct up. It's just basically okay, better to just take the sack there than to have tried to make a play. 

Yeah and in fairness it's like exhibit A why QBing is the hardest job in sports. If the rest of us encountered that situation, our best possible response is to curl up in the fetal position and piss ourselves.

Going into the season, people said Cousins was like the poor man's Jay Cutler.  Now we're worried he's the poor man's Kurt Warner.  That's definitely a step up. 

Some quarterbacks just aren't going to be very good with a poor O line, and their teams need to adjust accordingly.  Warner definitely, although I think Brees suffers from this to a lesser extent, partly due to his height.  Our O line was good this year, but it was far from great.  A better running attack would help take some of the pressure off, and losing Lict and Lavaou for most of the season obviously didn't help either. 

I don't think that's the moral of that play at all.  Jackson is wide open, you gotta make that play.  Cousins failed to keep himself in a throwing position so that when a guy did get open he couldn't throw accurately.  All the best quarterbacks are wizards at getting/keeping their feet set. 

Continued O-line and running game improvement is probably the easier road to getting this team over the hurdle of beating good teams.  

But like you I just can't help but imagine the slide/sidestep, reset of feet next-level QBs do in this situation that I dream of a Redskins QB one day doing. Cousins is our best hope! 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

I don't think that's the moral of that play at all.  Jackson is wide open, you gotta make that play.  Cousins failed to keep himself in a throwing position so that when a guy did get open he couldn't throw accurately.  All the best quarterbacks are wizards at getting/keeping their feet set. 

Eh, I don't know. The pocket is collapsing, he's getting pressure from like three angles, there's not enough time to get his feet set, etc, etc. How often do you see a guy make that play under those circumstances versus how many times you see the QB get strip sacked or picked? Better to just fall on it, 8 times out of 10 methinks.     

[Maithanet]

Eh, I don't know. The pocket is collapsing, he's getting pressure from like three angles, there's not enough time to get his feet set, etc, etc. How often do you see a guy make that play under those circumstances versus how many times you see the QB get strip sacked or picked? Better to just fall on it, 8 times out of 10 methinks.     

If you limit the sample to good quarterbacks with their feet set, I think it's more like 8/10 it's a first down and possible big play.  Yes, there are risks, but a sack there is a loss of ten and a punt is virtually guaranteed.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

If you limit the sample to good quarterbacks with their feet set, I think it's more like 8/10 it's a first down and possible big play.  Yes, there are risks, but a sack there is a loss of ten and a punt is virtually guaranteed.

But his feet aren't set, and in that particular instance, how many guys could get their feet set and recognize the open target quick enough to get the pass off? I don't know. You have to admire him for standing in and trying to make the big play, but ultimately I think that's one that he learns to eat or throw away.

[Jaime L]

Here's an example of the intuitive pocket sense elite QBs possess that really allows them to murder that WR they just can't tolerate anymore:

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Picks Time:

Denver over Pittsburgh

New England over KC

Arizona over Breen Bay

Seattle over Carolina

 

Now that I've come to accept last week's horrible loss, I'm rooting for New England and any Packers opponent. I really want to see the look on Goodell's face if he has to hand them the Lombardi Trophy. Bonus points if Brady is MVP!

[ljkeane]

Here's an example of the intuitive pocket sense elite QBs possess that really allows them to murder that WR they just can't tolerate anymore:

In fairness isn't climbing the pocket pretty much what QBs are taught to do? Cousins does have to back away and dodge round his own blocker and Kuechly(?). I'm not saying he's comparable to Brady but it does look like he had the more difficult task to show 'pocket presence' in those two clips.

[Jaime L]

In fairness isn't climbing the pocket pretty much what QBs are taught to do? Cousins does have to back away and dodge round his own blocker and Kuechly(?). I'm not saying he's comparable to Brady but it does look like he had the more difficult task to show 'pocket presence' in those two clips.

Definitely. I couldn't find a good one of Brady doing what he does best so settled for one where he threw either Amendola or Edelman to their death. 

[Ser Creighton]

And the weird thing of that Rams win was our running game led the way that day...never to be heard from again. But yeah I feel the same way about Cousins. He showed a ton of growth this year. The live reps really helped him.  And the biggest reason to believe is he's such a hard worker he's gonna keep working at fixing his weaknesses. There's 100% correlation between elite QBing and guys who eat, sleep and breathe football. Cousins is like that.

That said, there's no guarantee he gets there. The live reps have really helped. He's gotten so much better at his presnap reads which has helped him cut back on his terrible INT rate, going through his progressions, being decisive in what he's seeing.

But still never pick up that intuitive pocket sense and comfort with the chaos all around them which limits their ultimate upside. Too much of this against good defenses:

The best QBs are more calm and economical in the steps they take under pressure like this. Not even sure if it's something that can be learned. Hope it's more nurture than nature because this dude won't relent until he gets it.

And anecdotally if I think back on the big plays he made this year, almost all came with a nearly perfectly clean pocket.  It's great he's making those plays, but by its very nature that alone won't beat good teams.

 

I don't know about that, it's six men in the box, Kuechly comes on a blitz up the a gap which pushes cousins back, and is followed up by a LB on a crossing stunt, he had no place to step up too. It was not pocket awareness, it was happy feet, he never properly set and his follow through is off balance.

[Jaime L]

I don't know about that, it's six men in the box, Kuechly comes on a blitz up the a gap which pushes cousins back, and is followed up by a LB on a crossing stunt, he had no place to step up too. It was not pocket awareness, it was happy feet, he never properly set and his follow through is off balance.

I don't disagree in that GIF - there the failure is an imprecision in the number of steps he takes to avoid the pressure. Though there was 3-4 notable lapses in pocket presence vs. the Packers on Sunday - opportunities to step up where he didn't. I'm putting it all under the category of handling pressure in the pocket. It's an art to figure out the optimal economy of movements to both avoid the rush and still be in position to throw. It's like magic when a Brady or Brees does it well. High bar for Cousins. I don't expect him to get that good. But should be the next focus area regardless. 

[JonSnow4President]

Definitely. I couldn't find a good one of Brady doing what he does best so settled for one where he threw either Amendola or Edelman to their death. 

Just because I know you're a redskins fan..

[Jace, Extat]

Love seeing you guys break down film and mechanics, please keep it up!

Meanwhile, the Colts have hired Joe Philbin as O-line coach. Last time the team hired a fired HC, I was notably upset. But hey, those guys had to have gotten their gigs on some kind of merit, right?

[unJon]

The Bell and Ben plays were perfectly clean. I also don't like the "thug" bs. Call him a dirty player, he is, but the kid has never been in trouble off the field. He's not a thug.

Fair point on thug.

I was being tongue and cheek with my question not implying he actually was suspended this time for the Bell or Ben hits.

[unJon]

Why is that irrational?

I get it's an early East Coast road game (Seattle keeps getting fucked in this regard). But there's several metrics that have Seattle as the flat better team (i.e.: FO). They've also beaten the Panthers, IIRC, 4 of the last 5 times. The only loss was early this year before the Seahawks had rounded into their current form and even that was close. 

The primary concern with taking Seattle for me would be possible knock on effects coming off the Arctic Bowl they just played. Have no idea how that affects a team. There's no template for it. The two cases where a road team won a frigid game: Giants over Packers in the 2007 NFCG and Ravens over Broncos in the 2012 divisional playoffs...that same team won its next game. But neither game was cold like that. 

See this is perfect. This is exactly why it's irrational. Way more than half the betting money thinks just like you, driving the line off of -3 down briefly to -1 and now holding at -1.5.

No pre existing argument can sway either side. Let's just check back in after Carolina manhandles them.

[zelticgar]

So pumped for the playoffs. Hopefully the Pats from the first half of the season will show up today. I have to watch the game solo. My normal crew is watching at a friends house but I have to watch my daughters. They dont want to go over because it is all boys. I'm going to have them cook appetizers and force them to watch the whole game with me as punishment

I'm actually kind of looking forward to trying to get them into some playoff football. I'll probably periscope the game if anyone wants to watch with me. I'll send out the periscope details later today.

 

 

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

 

 If you think that's the likely outcome then you should be excited about the line. You get the Panthers at -1.5 instead of -3.

[Lord Hanna]

Denver, KC, Carolina and Arizona are my picks today. 

[Howdyphillip]

Denver, KC, Carolina and Arizona are my picks today. 

The one game that we are all absolutely sure about is Denver over Pittsburgh which means that the Steelers will win. Give me Pittsburgh and the rest of the field home teams wins for an outside the box prediction. 

I'm not betting on the impossible, but why not prognosticate it?

[Rhom]

I can't tell you what a catch is in the NFL.  You don't know what a catch is in the NFL.  And neither do the officials.

Dean Blandino doesn't think Martavis Bryant's catch should have been called complete:

“I don’t think this is a catch. If I just had a blank slate and I could say, 'Do you think this is a catch or not a catch?’, I would say ‘no catch.’ But the ruling on the field was a catch. And we have to see clear and obvious evidence that it was not a catch.”