Jump to content

Heresy Project X+Y=S+L=J


wolfmaid7

Recommended Posts

Thanks again to Kingmonkey for pulling this together same courtesy applies.

S? Who's S? S is Stark. Jon is an incest child. 

Wait, what? Ew! No way. That's sick. No way is Jon an incest child. Sick!

Yeah, I'm going there. Someone's got to. It's the nuclear option, and I'm pressing the button. BAM! Suck it in. This is the option that never gets discussed because as soon as anyone raises it, they get shouted down. Nobody wants it to be true. Well you probably wanted Oberyn to beat The Mountain. You probably wanted Syrio Forel to survive. You probably weren't cheering on the Freys at the Red Wedding. This essay series is supposed to be dealing with the various possible answers to the parentage of Jon, and this is one of those possible answers. What's more, it's one with a surprising amount going for it. 

But: EW! Sick!

Right, because GRRM would never tell a story that involved incest? Suuuuuuure, you tell yourself that. Then we can discuss this bridge I want to sell you. Ok, ok, but incest is a thing that evil Lannisters do, and produces utter cads like Joffrey, not GRRM's good guys, like Jon. Or say Tyrion. Or Dany.

Uh... Oh. Yeah.

Three main characters: Jon, Tyrion, Dany.

Dany: Mother died giving birth to her. Both parents were Targaryens.

Tyrion: Mother died giving birth to him. Both parents were Lannisters.

Jon: Mother died giving him. Both parents were... wait, what?

The Uncomfortable Logic

Let me say this right now: I'm not sold on this theory. I wrote the R+L=J essay too, that's who I think is most likely Jon's parents. However, when you get past the “Ew! No way. That's sick”, Jon as an incest child makes some sense. In fact, quite a bit of sense. Not enough to convince me, but enough to convince me more than any of the other alternatives to R+L=J. Enough to think that an essay series that's supposed to be delving into Jon's parentage that omits this option is shying away from a genuine possibility. Yet this theory, above all others, gets short shrift because nobody wants it to be true. Put aside those feelings of “ick” and pay attention, because we're after the truth, not after puppies and rainbows and farts that smell of cotton candy. So let's all be grown-ups and ask that pressing question in a calm and mature fashion: did Lyanna get jiggy with her bro? Was she boning Benjen? Did she like to play hide Brandon's bratwurst? Was there nookie with Ned?

This isn't one of the officially announced essays. It wasn't on the list. I think that's an oversight, and here's why.

Firstly, Lyanna is Jon's mum. I'm not going to try to prove that here. Look at my R+L=J essay, or a hundred other places, and you'll see evidence enough. Secondly, what I said about the three main characters. Seriously, just look at that again. The three main characters who are exemplars of their respective families, who are our main eyes and ears in the story, with more chapters than anyone else, who are the main three characters in the book, share a lot in common. They are all outsiders. They are all “bastards and broken things”. Their mothers all died giving birth to them. Two of them, their parents were close relatives with the same family name. One of them, we're told the father is a Stark, and we've figured out that the mother is a Stark. YOU DO THE MATH.

Come on guys, we're TOLD this. Jon looks Arya. Arya looks like Lyanna. Therefore Jon looks like Lyanna. Ok, cool. We are also told that Jon looks like Ned. Red herring, because Ned must surely have looked like Lyanna? Maybe. Or maybe he looks like both of them because Jon is 100% pure Stark.

Tyrion thinks of Jon that “Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son, “ but he also tells Jon that “You have more of the north in you than your brothers.” He sees only Ned in Jon, while he sees Cat's influence in Jon's brothers. If Jon is Lyanna's son but the father was not a northerner, why would Jon have “more of the north” in him than his brothers? What Tyrion is observing is that the Stark characteristics are diluted in the other siblings, but undiluted in Jon. How do you get a child with undiluted Stark characteristics? Simple, you have two Stark parents.

Now let's talk about something that's either a major plot-hole or a major clue that everyone overlooks because they don't want to believe this -- Sherlock Ned. Donning his deerstalker and pipe, Ned cleverly detects that Robert's bastards all have dark hair. He reads in Maester Mallion's The Lineages and Histories of the Great Houses of the Seven Kingdoms about how Baratheon-Lannister matches have produced dark haired kids before. He listens to Arya and Sansa's disagreement about Joffrey – Arya says he's a stag, not a lion. Sansa responds that Joffrey is nothing like that drunken king. BINGO!

Elementary, my dear Eddard. Robert is not Joffrey's father. Cersei must have been sleeping with someone else. So how then, Mr. Stark, did you come up with this?
 

 
AGoT said:
"My brother is worth a hundred of your friend."
"Your brother?" Ned said. "Or your lover?"
"Both." She did not flinch from the truth.
 


Deducing that Robert wasn't the father is simple if genetically somewhat dubious detective work. Deducing that Jaime must be the dad is a shot out of the blue. As far as we know, there has been no hint of it to Ned. I've heard it suggested that it was the attempt on Bran's life that filled him in. So what, if the real father of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella had been someone unrelated to Cersei, Robert wouldn't have minded? It's only because Cersei's kids are children of incest that they'd get disinherited and Joff would lose the throne? REALLY? Just because Baratheons wear horned helmets doesn't mean they like being cuckolded. No, that holds no water. So how about the way Joffrey looks so purely Lannister? Once Ned knows what to look for, surely he'd be looking to see what other features he could see in the kids. Cersei and Jaime are twins, though. He wouldn't see any features in Joffrey that aren't apparent in his mother. You could almost say that whoever his father had been, he had left little of himself in his son. Like when Tyrion says of Jon, “whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son.” 

And there's the rub. Ned has been raising Jon, who has all the features of just one of his parents, apparently. How could Ned, of all people, not be familiar with the idea that a child might look the spitting image of just one of his parents? That makes no sense at all. Unless... unless Ned knew that Jon showed no signs of his other parent because his parents were very similar looking siblings. In that case, Ned would have had a direct example of what he was seeing in Joffery to make him jump to that conclusion. Elementary indeed!

That link between Jon and Joffrey is an important one, because they are intentionally drawn as opposites who have a hidden similarity. Golden Joffrey, dark Jon. Both sons of the leading houses of the land, but one will inherit everything and one nothing. They're even called jON and jOFF, for heaven's sake! Ok, that one might be a bit silly.

The first time we see Joff is in Arya's very first chapter where he's directly contrasted to Jon.

 
AGoT said:
"What did you think of Prince Joff, sister? He's very gallant, don't you think?"
"Jon says he looks like a girl," Arya said.
Sansa sighed as she stitched. "Poor Jon," she said. "He gets jealous because he's a bastard."

He gave her a half smile. "Bastards are not allowed to damage young princes," he said. "Any bruises they take in the practice yard must come from trueborn swords."
 


As it turns out, Joff is a bastard too. Fancy that. I wonder what else they have in common. Here's a funny thing: Sansa and Arya's talk about who Joff takes after gives Ned his little epiphany. There's another person who Sansa and Arya think about in terms of familial resemblances and the question of parentage, and that's Jon.

Well let's take a look at their mothers. Funnily enough, Cersei and Lyanna keep getting compared too. Cersei worries about a “new Lyanna”. She believes that she was meant for Rhaegar but ended up with Robert. She believes that Lyanna was meant for Robert but ended up with Rhaegar. Cersei ended up having children with neither, being too busy shagging her brother. Might then Lyanna have ended up having children with neither, being too busy shagging her brother too?

Seems like a lot of incest going on. Sure, the Targs swing that way, but do the Starks? Well, about as much as the Lannisters do. Tywin married his cousin Joanna Lannister, and two of their children went a step further. Funnily enough, we don't get told who Lyanna's mother was in the books. They're strangely silent about Rickard Stark's wife, but the world book is not. As it turns out, Lyanna's mother was Lyarra Stark. Yep, another cousin. Another parallel between Lyanna and Cersei. 

Lyanna Stark lived a parallel life to Cersei. Jon is compared to Joff. When Ned thinks about a child who, just like Jon, is noted for looking like one parent alone, Ned's assumption is that both parents must have been siblings of similar appearance. In Joff's case, that is true. In Jon's case, the one that Ned is most familiar with, does it make sense that it isn't true? If Chewbacca lives on Endor, then you must acquit!

Which Brother?


Which Stark dad, then? We have a choice of three possible sister-shaggers, who's the secret Jaime?

Brandon the Womaniser is the obvious choice. Poor Brandon, everyone blames him for everything. He seems to have done the deed with every other woman in Westeros, so why not Lyanna? If Brandon was in love with Lyanna – and even more, if Brandon knew Lyanna was carrying his child – it would help explain why Brandon blew his top so spectacularly. However, I don't like it. Firstly, I'm bored of Brandon the shagger theories. Yeah, he liked sex. Big deal. That doesn't mean that every deadbeat dad in the series is Brandon. He was just a bit of a mini-Robert. Lyanna wasn't into Robert because of his proclivities, so it's a fair bet she'd be the same about Brandon. Then there's the fact that GRRM has said that Brandon never had a son. On top of that, Brandon had probably been dead for three months when Jon was conceived, and that tends to kill the mood. Let's put Brandon's corpse aside as possible dad-material. 


So onto the middle brother, Eddard. It couldn't possibly be honourable Ned though. Ned wouldn't shag Lyanna, Right? Right? Not “Dearest Ned”, who “had loved her with all his heart”, and “dishonoured [himself] and dishonoured Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men”? Wait, what? 

Ok, so that's all out of context. Ned loved his sister AS A SISTER, ok? That, plus his famous honour, is why he made a promise to her that meant he had to lie to Catelyn. His dishonouring of Cat was by lying to her. And possibly by lying with Ashara as well. The sly old dog!

Yes, sensitive Ned. Over-sensitive, indeed, because as far as Catelyn was concerned, “He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles,” so she doesn't feel like she's been dishonoured. That's why he lies awake at night, his sleep troubled for fourteen years by the terrible knowledge that he hadn't actually done anything wron... uh, I mean... well. “Old guilts”, right? That's what causes it. The guilt about the lie. That lie really eats at old Ned. He's such an honourable and innocent soul, that one lie is enough.

“I have made more mistakes than you can possibly imagine”, Eddard tells Cersei, making that interpretation rather dubious. Does he think of lying to Cat as one of those mistakes? Perhaps, but he has had 14 years to correct that mistake, and that leaves a lot of other mistakes too. Regrets, he's got a few. Yes, Ned's honourable. That's why doing something dishonourable eats at him. But really, all that fuss over one little white lie, the dying wish of his beloved sister? Surely there's got to be more? Well how about: “The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words.” Shame? That seems a little bit strong. Or not, if you were slipping your sister a length of Valyrian steel.

How could this happen, though? Ned's movements are fairly well attested, but there is a tiny window of opportunity. After leaving Cat he could have rushed south at top speed to the Tower of Joy, had a quickie with Lyanna, high-fived Rhaegar, then raced up north to gather an army to overthrow Rhaegar's family. It would explain how Ned managed to find the ToJ so quickly after raising the siege of Storm's End if he already knew where it was, but no, it's not a very satisfactory story. Too many questions.

That just leaves little Benjen. Too little? We don't know for sure, but not necessarily. He could be within a year of Lyanna's age. From Bran's visions they seem to have been close. In the Knight of the Laughing Tree story, it's Benjen who tells Howland he knows where to find some armour. The KoTLT then turns up in mismatched armour, and it's a fair bet that's the same suit of armour. The KoTLT was either Lyanna or Benjen (who on our first meeting with him is described laughing, looking at Ghost with amusement, and always having a hint of laughter in his eyes). Benjen and Lyanna were close, and kept secrets together. 

Benjen also has the best opportunity. People will tell you that he was the Stark in Winterfell at the time, but was he really? Let's go to the source, this SSM:
 

 
SSM said:
6) When, specifically, did Benjen join the NW? Was it a couple of years after Ned returned, or immediately?
It was within a few months of Ned's returning. The reason being that there always was a Stark at Winterfell, so he had to stay there until Ned returned. GRRM refused to say the reason why Benjen had to join the NW.
source
 



This certainly tells us that in the latter stages of the war, Benjen was the Stark in Winterfell. It tells us nothing about what was happening at the beginning. People often assume that Benjen was there all along, that he was left as the Stark in Winterfell while all the other Starks were heading to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding, but this is nothing but a guess. I'll make a different guess. Lyanna, daughter of one of the most powerful men in Westeros, one of the five most eligible women in Westeros, would not be wandering around the riverlands without a very trusted escort. Ideally a member of the family. This would be the perfect kind of responsibility for the youngest Stark son, on the edge of manhood and in need of just the kind of minor command experience that being in charge of a couple of soldiers escorting Lyanna on her travels would give him. Doubly perfect that Benjen and Lyanna had always been so close. 

So Bad Boy Benjy could have been at the right place at the right time. It's very reasonable to think he was with Lyanna at the time of the abduction, and he might have accompanied Lyanna to the Tower of Joy (or wherever Rhaegar and co. went first). Plenty of time for some sister-boffing. When the nasty consequences of the abduction became clear, who better to send as a messenger from Rhaegar & Lyanna to try to stop the rebellion in its tracks and forestall further tragedy than Benjyboy? So Benjy heads back to Winterfell, meets up with Ned while he's there raising the banners, and tries to explain to Ned that all is not as people thought. Sorry Benjy, too late for that. Aerys lost his head, and won't be happy until Ned and Rob lose theirs too. Not too late, however, to be the Stark in Winterfell while Ned needs to be off leading the fight. As a bonus, Benjen can tell Ned where Lyanna is, so that he can race there at speed after the fight is won, explaining the mystery of how Ned found the ToJ so fast, and why the 3KG seem so unsurprised to see him.

Of course in such a situation, we would expect there to be serious repercussions. Ned would return from the tower with Lyanna's sprog, knowing just what kind of thing his kid brother had been doing. He would not be a happy Stark. Little Benjen has been naughty, and big Benjen would have to pay. Have you ever wondered why Benjen went to the wall just after Robert's Rebellion? Because if you haven't, HELLO, THIS IS PLANET EARTH CALLING. 

It would be just like GRRM, if Jon was Benjen's son, to hint at it. Jon and Benjen meet first in chapter 5 of GoT, so let's take a look. Our first mention of Benjen is as Jon describes watching the high and mighty entering the hall at Winterfell for the feast. As they go past the bench where Jon was seated, Benjen takes the time to give Jon a smile. Later, Benjen comes looking for Jon. 
 

 
AGoT said:
"Is this one of the direwolves I've heard so much of?" a familiar voice asked close at hand.
Jon looked up happily as his uncle Ben put a hand on his head and ruffled his hair much as Jon had ruffled the wolf's. "Yes," he said. "His name is Ghost."
 



Our first meeting with Benjen, and he does something that Jon does too. Jon ruffles Ghost's hair. Benjen ruffles Jon's hair. Ghost is Jon's pup. Does this hint that Jon is Benjen's pup? Sneaky old GRRM!

Benjen asks why Jon is not eating with his “brothers”. Jon tells him that Cat thought the royal family might be offended, and Benjen's response is a rather flat “I see,” and a glance back at his brother Ned. Again Benjen seems to be checking up on Jon, trying to make sure that Eddard is treating him like one of the family. As the two had agreed, perhaps. 
Benjen's first act is to see what Jon has been drinking, and ask how much he's drunk. Then he laughs it off, remembering that he was younger the first time he had been drunk. Benjen is looking out for Jon, paying attention to his development. Quite paternal, really. 

Then a rather odd thing happens.
 

 
AGoT said:
Benjen gave Jon a careful, measuring look. "You don't miss much, do you, Jon? We could use a man like you on the Wall."
 


Benjen seems to be suggesting to Jon that he consider joining him at the wall, yet immediately he seems to try to talk Jon out of it, to tell him about the things he will miss if he becomes a man of the Night's watch. It's almost as if he regrets the suggestion, that he was making the suggestion and then realising it was selfish. As if he wanted Jon with him, but didn't want Jon to have to pay the price. There are two interesting passages in this segment:
 

 
AGoT said:
"I am almost a man grown," Jon protested. "I will turn fifteen on my next name day, and Maester Luwin says bastards grow up faster than other children."
"That's true enough," Benjen said with a downward twist of his mouth. He took Jon's cup from the table, filled it fresh from a nearby pitcher, and drank down a long swallow.
 


Look at Benjen's reaction. He agrees with Jon's comment about how fast he grows, and in response his normally amused demeanour changes. His mouth turns downwards and he takes a long drink. It's almost as if he's unhappy about Jon's quick growth. Of course bastards don't really grow up faster, but from Benjen's perspective, seeing Jon only occasionally, Jon must seem to be growing up fast – and Benjen has missed most of it. If Benjen was Jon's father, no wonder he needed a strong drink when that subject came up. 
 

 
AGoT said:
"You are a boy of fourteen," Benjen said. "Not a man, not yet. Until you have known a woman, you cannot understand what you would be giving up."
"I don't care about that!" Jon said hotly.
"You might, if you knew what it meant," Benjen said. "If you knew what the oath would cost you, you might be less eager to pay the price, son."
Jon felt anger rise inside him. "I'm not your son!"
Benjen Stark stood up. "More's the pity." He put a hand on Jon's shoulder. "Come back to me after you've fathered a few bastards of your own, and we'll see how you feel."
 


Now this really is a telling passage. Benjen went to the wall only a few months after Ned returned from the war, yet he apparently did understand what he was giving up. Maybe this is just something he learned from visits to Mole Town with his new brothers, but it certainly seems to suggest that Benjen had been sexually active before he paid the price. The line “after you've fathered a few bastards of your own” almost sounds like Benjen is saying “like I did”, and Benjen actually calls Jon “Son.” Jon, feeling rejected by Ben trying to talk him out of it, lashes out with “I'm not your son”, and Benjen's reaction is regret. As if the price that Benjen paid included Jon not being his son.

In the following Catelyn chapter, we learn that Benjen approached Maester Luwin, informing the Maester that Jon aspired to take the black. Two interesting things here. First, that we get the whole process of Eddard deciding to agree to this plan outside of his own PoV. We never get Ned's thoughts on the matter, which would certainly be too revealing if Benjen was Jon's dad. The other, that Benjen decided to go to Maester Luwin first, as if the Maester could make the case better than he could. What possible reason could Ned have for being dubious about an approach from Benjen himself, his own brother? 

So who was slipping their sister some Stark sausage? I think we can put this in an order of likelihood. I'll throw in a percentage likelihood based on a highly scientific process of pulling numbers out of my arse:

1. Benjen. Closest ties to Lyanna, unknown whereabouts at the time, mysteriously sent to the wall. 72.1%
2. Eddard. Would explain his guilt, but a narrow window of opportunity. 24.3%
3. Brandon. Most sexually active as far as we know, but somewhat dead at the time. 3.6%

The Big Picture

It's notable that Ned doesn't have Robert's anti-Targaryen feelings, even though he's the one with the reason to hate. Why would Ned have such a different view to Robert, unless he knew something Robert did not? Until Aerys forced Rhaegar's hand, Rhaegar wasn't actually involved in the rebellion. In fact, it was only after Rhaegar joined the King's army that the rebellion chose someone to sit on the Iron Throne as a replacement to the Targaryen dynasty. Perhaps Ned learned something that allowed him to forgive Rhaegar for the abduction. Perhaps Ned was still going along with his father's Southron Ambitions; Ned would initially have been happy to seat Rhaegar on the throne, and only after Rhaegar was forced to switch sides to keep his family safe from Aerys did Ned favour Robert? Perhaps knowing that they were at one point secret allies explains that sad smile on Arthur Dayne's lips?

It's a lot of perhapses, but as scenarios go it does have the advantage of less stupidity than most scenarios require. Let's be honest, pretty much every scenario out there relies on people doing a lot of stupid things, like Prince Perfect starting a massive war because Mr. Sausage was hungry, or Lyanna forgetting to send word home that she was fine. From a political viewpoint, this actually makes sense without having to assume that Rhaegar didn't give a damn about political concerns. There's one other point in its favour: Ned apparently knew where the Tower of Joy could be found. If he'd already had some communication with Rhaegar, that would explain a lot. 

What's in it for Rhaegar? Why would he abduct Lyanna, not to mention letting brother and sister shag beneath his roof? This is a very difficult question for any theory other than R+L=J, and it's why people sometimes come up with complicated and frequently nonsensical theories about baby swaps and nobody noticing Jon being a year older than claimed. There is a hint of a possibility however.

In my “Puppets of Ice and Fire” essay I've dealt with the links between the ToJ and Mirri Maaz Duur's ritual in the tent. There are a lot of similarities. Too many for coincidence. I believe that Rhaegar, obsessed by prophecy as his grandfather was, attempted to do what his grandfather failed to do at Summerhall, and what his sister later did succeed in doing. We know that at one point, Rhaegar believed Aegon to the the Prince that was Promised. Some people suggest that Rhaegar changed his mind and later believed Jon would be. Others propose that Rhaegar still believed Aegon was the prince, but needed a third child so there could be three heads to the dragon.

I'm not sure we understand these prophecies, and more specifically the way Rhaegar interpreted them, as well as we think. In the one instance we have of an attempt to hatch dragons that actually succeeded, we see a very interesting detail:
 

 
AGoT said:
Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames.
 


Now why might there be a great wolf involved in a ritual that ends with the birth of dragons, and who could that great wolf be? The direwolf of Stark is certainly a “great wolf”, and Rhaegar is very familiar with the idea of exemplars of a family coming from interbreeding. When Rhaegar was sent out to discover the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, he is said to have returned with only the Knight's shield, yet later he crowns Lyanna as Queen of Love and Beauty. It seems like a pretty fair bet that Rhaegar knew more about the KotLT than he let on, and at that time became aware of Lyanna. If he was seeking a “Great wolf” as a necessary element in his ritual, who better to turn to? And knowing the Targaryen tradition of creating exemplar Targaryens by breeding brother with sister, which indeed resulted in his own birth, wouldn't it make sense for him to believe that Aegon's future may depend on a great wolf, bred from Stark brother and sister?

Conclusion

GRRM's girlfriend Parris is quoted as dismissing R+L=J on the basis that “GRRM does not do simple.” It must be remembered that she has not been told the truth, but we shouldn't dismiss her opinions lightly. My inclination is to think that R+L=J, but it's not as simple as a plain old love story. If she's right though, for Jon to be an incest child certainly fulfils the requirements of not being a simple story. 

The problem with this theory, and indeed with any theory other than R+L=J, is that it requires us to ignore evidence. What's going on with the story of Bael the Bard, if not R+L=J? Why, when he visited a royal bastard at a brothel, in a close parallel to his visit to the ToJ, did Ned's thoughts turn to Rhaegar, if Rhaegar didn't have a royal bastard at the ToJ? I can't give an answer to that, but in this theory we at least have an alternative that can fit the story without jumping through hoops, and gives satisfying answers to some unanswered questions, such as Benjen's reasons for going to the wall, how Ned seemed to know to go to the ToJ in advance, and why Ned is so damn guilty and filled with shame all the time. 

As theories go, this really isn't a bad one. It certainly deserves far more consideration that it ever receives, and the value in this essay, if nothing else, is to address that imbalance. It doesn't have a mountain of evidence in support, but then it shares that with all the non-RLJ alternatives. It does explain the forgotten mystery of how Ned came to the conclusion that Joffrey was a child of incest, and intriguingly, the only evidence that Ned seems to have had for that (Joffrey displaying only Lannister features) also seems to apply to Jon (who displays only Stark features). What else it has in its favour is that one rather compelling calculus I mentioned at the start of the essay, and I'll close by repeating that. Our three main characters, the three heroes of the series, three “bastards and broken things”, three outsiders, yet exemplars of their familes; Dany, Tyrion and Jon.

Dany: Mother died giving birth to her. Both parents were Targaryens.

Tyrion: Mother died giving birth to him. Both parents were Lannisters.

Jon: Mother died giving him. Both parents were... wait, what?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

king monkey, I don't have to tell you which of your essays I find the most believable. I don't because you make it plain which one you find the most believable - and it's not this one. I gave you my initial reaction when you posted it to the other site, so I won't go over that again. Let me just say related to timeline and proximity issues, the problem is probably greater for Benjen than for Brandon and Ned (forgetting for a second the whole Brandon being dead thing.) When Lyanna is kidnapped Brandon is likely the nearest to his sister of the three. He's on the road to Riverrun. It appears that Ned is in the Eyrie with Jon and Robert, and, because Rickard is on the road to the wedding, Benjen is in far off Winterfell, already fulfilling his duty as the last Stark in Winterfell - as the SSM you quote suggests. One can add in Rickard to the equation as well. None of them are with Lyanna when she is kidnapped, so the last time we can reasonably assume it is possible one the brothers or her father could be with Lyanna is shortly before this event - with Brandon the nearest, then Rickard, then Ned, and then lastly Benjen.

To which we must add into the calculus the factor of who is alive when Jon is conceived. Both Rickard and Brandon being both as certifiably dead as Dorothy's dead witch - with or without munchkin coroner's certificate - in the time frame of eight to nine months before the sack of King's Landing. That is about three to four months after Jon Arryn calls his banners in rebellion and probably in the neighborhood three months or more between the kidnapping and the start of the rebellion. For us to make this work, we have a lot of work to explain the how of it. You haven't really even touched on the difficulties for each brother or Rickard to be a viable candidate.

This is full on crackpot territory, but that's ok, if one knows it and uses this as an exercise to look at ideas. There are holes in each theory, some of which don't get enough attention. I will close with my take on what I think is the most important plot hole you think this addresses. How Ned jumps from Cersei's children not being Robert's to them being Jaime's. My take is that Ned does not know, he guesses. He knows of Cersei's closeness to her brother and to no other male during the time of Robert and her marriage. Sansa's tantrum reveals the riddle of what secret Jon Arryn dies for (or so he thinks, but in this too Ned is wrong) and Ned makes the leap to Jaime as father because he is the most likely candidate and for no other reason. It isn't that Robert having a bastard child reminds him of Rhaegar having a bastard child, this is true, but not what gets him to understanding Cersei's are bastards as well. It is the lack of Baratheon coloring in any of Cersei's children that finally gobsmacks him in the face after viewing just the opposite in the genealogies and in the faces of Robert's bastards, but it is the nearness of the twins to each other and the lack of other candidates which leads, I think, to his guess that Jaime is the father. When he summons Cersei to the godswood there is something of the religious man in Ned coming out. Ned doesn't know about Jaime, but he knows she has been unfaithful. Ned asks her  the questions"your brother?" "or your lover?" and Cersei confirms the guess. Ned later makes the statement - not a question - that all three are Jaime's because he knows none are Robert's. He doesn't believe even Cersei can deny the truth spoken in the godswood, and as it turns out he is right. Choose yourself if Martin is saying the Old Gods had anything to do with her answer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Deducing that Robert wasn't the father is simple if genetically somewhat dubious detective work. Deducing that Jaime must be the dad is a shot out of the blue. As far as we know, there has been no hint of it to Ned. I've heard it suggested that it was the attempt on Bran's life that filled him in. So what, if the real father of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella had been someone unrelated to Cersei, Robert wouldn't have minded? It's only because Cersei's kids are children of incest that they'd get disinherited and Joff would lose the throne? REALLY? Just because Baratheons wear horned helmets doesn't mean they like being cuckolded. No, that holds no water. So how about the way Joffrey looks so purely Lannister? Once Ned knows what to look for, surely he'd be looking to see what other features he could see in the kids. Cersei and Jaime are twins, though. He wouldn't see any features in Joffrey that aren't apparent in his mother. You could almost say that whoever his father had been, he had left little of himself in his son. Like when Tyrion says of Jon, “whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son.” 

And there's the rub. Ned has been raising Jon, who has all the features of just one of his parents, apparently. How could Ned, of all people, not be familiar with the idea that a child might look the spitting image of just one of his parents? That makes no sense at all. Unless... unless Ned knew that Jon showed no signs of his other parent because his parents were very similar looking siblings. In that case, Ned would have had a direct example of what he was seeing in Joffery to make him jump to that conclusion. Elementary indeed!

That link between Jon and Joffrey is an important one, because they are intentionally drawn as opposites who have a hidden similarity. Golden Joffrey, dark Jon. Both sons of the leading houses of the land, but one will inherit everything and one nothing. They're even called jON and jOFF, for heaven's sake! Ok, that one might be a bit silly.

@Kingmonkey: First up--well done! Especially for doing this unasked--it is a subject that needs exploring.

2. On the above--this is a point I hadn't considered. But it does raise questions. Did Ned's brain "go there" because the Lannisters remind him (and readers) of the Targaryens? Or for something else? Ned really doesn't seem like the Master Sleuth. Nor does he have a magic decoder ring.

And the echoes/parallels between Jon and Joff are not subtle. The purpose of them can be debated. But their existence is solid.

As theories go, this really isn't a bad one. It certainly deserves far more consideration that it ever receives, and the value in this essay, if nothing else, is to address that imbalance. It doesn't have a mountain of evidence in support, but then it shares that with all the non-RLJ alternatives. It does explain the forgotten mystery of how Ned came to the conclusion that Joffrey was a child of incest, and intriguingly, the only evidence that Ned seems to have had for that (Joffrey displaying only Lannister features) also seems to apply to Jon (who displays only Stark features). What else it has in its favour is that one rather compelling calculus I mentioned at the start of the essay, and I'll close by repeating that. Our three main characters, the three heroes of the series, three “bastards and broken things”, three outsiders, yet exemplars of their familes; Dany, Tyrion and Jon.

Dany: Mother died giving birth to her. Both parents were Targaryens.

Tyrion: Mother died giving birth to him. Both parents were Lannisters.

Jon: Mother died giving him. Both parents were... wait, what?

I agree the parallels are very suggestive. But Jon is the grandson of Stark cousins--Lyanna's parents. That might not be close enough, but given the sparse population in the North, it might be pretty close.

Second--could this perhaps instead be a pointer where Jon is going? Marrying one of his own cousins? That the "magical blood" of the Stark wargs needs unifying. "There must always be a Stark in Winterfell." So, a super-concentrated Stark--is that extra helpful? I'm only being slightly facetious--the need for Stark blood in Winterfell and the North really might need reasserting. 

The problem with this theory, and indeed with any theory other than R+L=J, is that it requires us to ignore evidence. What's going on with the story of Bael the Bard, if not R+L=J? Why, when he visited a royal bastard at a brothel, in a close parallel to his visit to the ToJ, did Ned's thoughts turn to Rhaegar, if Rhaegar didn't have a royal bastard at the ToJ? I can't give an answer to that, but in this theory we at least have an alternative that can fit the story without jumping through hoops, and gives satisfying answers to some unanswered questions, such as Benjen's reasons for going to the wall, how Ned seemed to know to go to the ToJ in advance, and why Ned is so damn guilty and filled with shame all the time. 

On Bael the Bard, if we take Ygritte at her word, the point there was teaching an enemy a lesson. The maid is barely mentions, her "feelings" slapped down with a disclaimer. But the "enemy of Starks teaching a lesson by stealing a Stark" holds. 

And, so far in the novels, the plotters/enemies who steal Stark maids, aren't sleeping with them. Using them, yes. But there may (key word being "may") be a twist open there. 

Plus, one of the main lessons of Bael Tale is the Starks and Wildlings are kin. And the dangers of kinslaying--the "real" ending isn't Bael's triumph and clean getaway. It's kinslaying and ensuing disaster.

That's hard to do with some of the X+Y=J theories. If (BIG if) Jon is destined to slay his father due to lies (like Bael's son), there are a number of people out of the running. But--Benjen's alive, far as we know. And in a place where he could be wighted. And Jon has to kill the father? ???? (All the question marks = this is highly speculative.)

On the last bolded--agreed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with SFDanny on alot of the issues (barring the timelines ofcourse which i don't think is an issue at all). That Ned made an educated guess on this is most likely the case.It was a shot in the dark made by rudimentary observations on Ned's part.

I also disagree with the parallels drawn between Dany,Jon and Tyrion. In one or more of the cases its speculation that their mothers fied in childbirth so that's iffy on account of that.

Also,no one didn't do the essay because we didn't have an author for it that had the time to write it not because it was an uncomfortable scenario.I think we've seen enough in this story to desensitize us to the "ick"

For me it was Ned's reaction to this that nails it which goes from shock to disgust.He doesn't betray any hint of emotion that this might be the case between any of his siblings.He has no animosity or angst toward any of his siblings and i'm speaking specifically of Brandon and Benjen.

His interaction with Benjen or his memories of his father and Brandon are void of anything having been hinky.

Lastly,the looks which is problematic the moment we have Arya looking like Jon an she has a Tully mother.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Let me just say related to timeline and proximity issues, the problem is probably greater for Benjen than for Brandon and Ned (forgetting for a second the whole Brandon being dead thing.) When Lyanna is kidnapped Brandon is likely the nearest to his sister of the three. He's on the road to Riverrun. It appears that Ned is in the Eyrie with Jon and Robert, and, because Rickard is on the road to the wedding, Benjen is in far off Winterfell, already fulfilling his duty as the last Stark in Winterfell - as the SSM you quote suggests.

The SSM specifies that at the end of the war, Benjen was in Winterfell. We simply don't know where he was at the start of the war; the idea that he had been the Stark in Winterfell throughout is purely guesswork. 

I don't know of anything that precludes the possibility that Benjen was accompanying Lyanna on her way to Riverrun before heading alone to Winterfell to be the Stark in Winterfell, while Rickard then headed south. We know that Brandon was on his way to Riverrun. Why, if Rickard was also on his way to Riverrun, were they not travelling together? Where did Aerys send the summons to Rickard to? For that matter, we have virtually no information on Lyarra Stark. Maybe she was the Stark in Winterfell at the time. 

I will close with my take on what I think is the most important plot hole you think this addresses. How Ned jumps from Cersei's children not being Robert's to them being Jaime's. My take is that Ned does not know, he guesses. He knows of Cersei's closeness to her brother and to no other male during the time of Robert and her marriage. Sansa's tantrum reveals the riddle of what secret Jon Arryn dies for (or so he thinks, but in this too Ned is wrong) and Ned makes the leap to Jaime as father because he is the most likely candidate and for no other reason.

That's exactly the problem. The idea that her own brother is the most likely candidate for being the father of her children is a pretty odd one. Whatever the reason, we are not shown Ned's thought processes where he comes to this conclusion. 

 It is the lack of Baratheon coloring in any of Cersei's children that finally gobsmacks him in the face after viewing just the opposite in the genealogies and in the faces of Robert's bastards, but it is the nearness of the twins to each other and the lack of other candidates which leads, I think, to his guess that Jaime is the father.

Why is there a lack of other candidates? Cersei lives in a city of a million people. The genealogies tell us that Lannister/Baratheon crosses result in dark-haired children, not that crosses between Lannisters and anyone else result in dark-haired children. The proposal in this essay is that the specific notion that a child who looks like one parent might be the product of that parent and her sibling would be a natural one for someone who has witnessed exactly that to take. On the contrary, if Jon is NOT the product of incest, then Ned has only counter-examples to draw this conclusion from.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree the parallels are very suggestive. But Jon is the grandson of Stark cousins--Lyanna's parents. That might not be close enough, but given the sparse population in the North, it might be pretty close.

When we consider that Tyrion's parents are also cousins, agreed. However the way GRRM might be going with this is that Targ interbreeding has some kind of magical importance, and that the more "pure" the line is, the more truly exemplar of the totemic line the individual is. Dany is the child of siblings who are themselves the children of siblings, and she manages to hatch dragons. Tyrion is merely the child of cousins, but his nephew Joff is the child of siblings who's parents were cousins. Following this logic, we might assume that the Golden Prince Joff should have been the Lannister kwisatz haderach/chosen one, but Tyrion has to take his place. 

we take Ygritte at her word, the point there was teaching an enemy a lesson. The maid is barely mentions, her "feelings" slapped down with a disclaimer. But the "enemy of Starks teaching a lesson by stealing a Stark" holds. 

And, so far in the novels, the plotters/enemies who steal Stark maids, aren't sleeping with them. Using them, yes. But there may (key word being "may") be a twist open there. 

An alternative take on the same argument is that it wasn't really a love story, because Bael had his own machinations in mind. That doesn't require a parallel to hold that the nature of the machinations be the same. Bael used the Stark maiden for his own ends. Perhaps Rhaegar used the Stark maiden for his own ends as well, in wanting to get his hands on a StarkSquared baby to fulfil a ritual.

Plus, one of the main lessons of Bael Tale is the Starks and Wildlings are kin. And the dangers of kinslaying--the "real" ending isn't Bael's triumph and clean getaway. It's kinslaying and ensuing disaster.

That's hard to do with some of the X+Y=J theories. If (BIG if) Jon is destined to slay his father due to lies (like Bael's son), there are a number of people out of the running. But--Benjen's alive, far as we know. And in a place where he could be wighted. And Jon has to kill the father? ???? (All the question marks = this is highly speculative.)

Interesting thought, thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with SFDanny on alot of the issues (barring the timelines ofcourse which i don't think is an issue at all). That Ned made an educated guess on this is most likely the case.It was a shot in the dark made by rudimentary observations on Ned's part.

Of course this is possible, but frankly even though I don't believe this hypothesis, I think it gives a better explanation for that than the shot in the dark hypothesis. Ned's jump bothered the hell out of me on my first read through, and still does.

I don't think the idea that Ned made the guess there and then really holds up. "I know the truth Jon Arryn died for," he tells Cersei. He's already figured it out before she confesses.

I also disagree with the parallels drawn between Dany,Jon and Tyrion. In one or more of the cases its speculation that their mothers fied in childbirth so that's iffy on account of that.

It's confirmed in each case in the text (with the possible but unlikely exception of Jon). It's speculated by some that Dany has a different mother than the one attested in the text, if that's what you mean -- but that's very much case unproven. 

Also,no one didn't do the essay because we didn't have an author for it that had the time to write it not because it was an uncomfortable scenario.I think we've seen enough in this story to desensitize us to the "ick"

I hope so, but I've seen people react quite negatively to suggestions of Stark incest in the past! I hope this possibility can be discussed without resort to "ick." ;)

For me it was Ned's reaction to this that nails it which goes from shock to disgust.He doesn't betray any hint of emotion that this might be the case between any of his siblings.He has no animosity or angst toward any of his siblings and i'm speaking specifically of Brandon and Benjen.

His interaction with Benjen or his memories of his father and Brandon are void of anything having been hinky.

I'm not sure we really do see disgust from Ned in this case. He seems almost sympathetic to Cersei. His reaction on Cersei's admission is to think about his own children, and he actually tries to empathise with Cersei's defence of her kids. He tells her he feels pity, not disgust. To me, this is quite compatible with the notion that he'd been living with the thought that his own beloved siblings had gone down the same road for 14 years. Enough time to get over the visceral disgust, and try to empathise with the unthinkable.

Ned's thought of Benjen are non-existent in his PoV, but if he can empathise with Cersei, he could forgive his brother. Particularly when said brother has taken the black, which by the strongest traditions of the North forgives a man his sins. 

Lastly,the looks which is problematic the moment we have Arya looking like Jon an she has a Tully mother.

Ah but that's quite an important point. Arya is a counter-example to the idea that a child who looks like only one parent does so because both their parents were in fact siblings. Jon might be another counter-example, or he might be an example of just that. If just one of the pair is an example, then he has an example to work from. If both are counter-examples, he has even greater reason to see nothing unusual in it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, as you can probably guess, I mightily disagree, and there are two major points I'd like to adress:

The SSM specifies that at the end of the war, Benjen was in Winterfell. We simply don't know where he was at the start of the war; the idea that he had been the Stark in Winterfell throughout is purely guesswork.

 I don't know of anything that precludes the possibility that Benjen was accompanying Lyanna on her way to Riverrun before heading alone to Winterfell to be the Stark in Winterfell, while Rickard then headed south. We know that Brandon was on his way to Riverrun. Why, if Rickard was also on his way to Riverrun, were they not travelling together? Where did Aerys send the summons to Rickard to? For that matter, we have virtually no information on Lyarra Stark. Maybe she was the Stark in Winterfell at the time. 

A couple of problems here:

1) if Lyanna was abducted ten miles from HH, she was NOT travelling from Winterfell to Riverrun, unless she took a detour for some reason. Harrenhal is not on the way to Riverrun (or at least not on the maps I checked)

2) there must always be a Stark at Winterfell. With Ned in the Vale, Brandon in Riverrun and Benjen with Lyanna, that leaves Rickard as Stark in Winterfell until Benjen's returns after delivering Lyanna to Riverrun. However, as Benjen fails to deliver her, Rickard would still be sitting back home, until Benjen made it back after Lyanna's disappearance. Yet, the wedding party was already nearing Riverrun as we know that Brandon set out from Riverrun to meet them, which means that Rickard was already on his way, or do you presume that there was one wedding party and Rickard would be travelling with another?

3) there is no such rule as "there must always be a Stark with a Stark maiden", and asserting such a rule clashes with the rule that is actually stated.

That's exactly the problem. The idea that her own brother is the most likely candidate for being the father of her children is a pretty odd one. Whatever the reason, we are not shown Ned's thought processes where he comes to this conclusion. 

Why is there a lack of other candidates? Cersei lives in a city of a million people. The genealogies tell us that Lannister/Baratheon crosses result in dark-haired children, not that crosses between Lannisters and anyone else result in dark-haired children. The proposal in this essay is that the specific notion that a child who looks like one parent might be the product of that parent and her sibling would be a natural one for someone who has witnessed exactly that to take. On the contrary, if Jon is NOT the product of incest, then Ned has only counter-examples to draw this conclusion from.

I believe you are really missing the Bran factor here.

Bran's fall may have been an accident, but not the attempt at his assassination. Meaning, Bran must have seen or heard something, a secret so dangerous that it was worth killing a Lord Paragon's son for. What was it, and from what source? Definitely not Ned's own Winterfell household, meaning, someone's from the King's retinue. Ned wouldn't have had an idea about every single person accompanying Robert, but he knew that Cersei stayed at Winterfell. The same Cersei who supposedly poisoned Jon Arryn. So, the suspicion of Cersei having both something to hide as well as guts to carry out murder is right there at hand.

What is it that Cersei is hiding? Enters the whole "seed is strong" investigation line, leading to the conclusion that Cersei has cuckolded Robert, and that the prospective father was most likely light-haired (really, why Ned wouldn't be able to draw a generalisation that what applies to Barartheons-Lannisters might apply elsewhere?). A light-haired man who has free access to the queen, doesn't raise suspicion, due to Cersei's pride is most likely highborn, and is somehow related to Bran's accident.

... Jaime Lannister was at Winterfell, as well.

ETA: I might also add that Ned already considers Jaime as capable next to anything, so the idea that he might be fornicating with his sister is really not surprising in the least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When we consider that Tyrion's parents are also cousins, agreed. However the way GRRM might be going with this is that Targ interbreeding has some kind of magical importance, and that the more "pure" the line is, the more truly exemplar of the totemic line the individual is. Dany is the child of siblings who are themselves the children of siblings, and she manages to hatch dragons. Tyrion is merely the child of cousins, but his nephew Joff is the child of siblings who's parents were cousins. Following this logic, we might assume that the Golden Prince Joff should have been the Lannister kwisatz haderach/chosen one, but Tyrion has to take his place.

Agreed on the bolded. Given what's coming and the Starks' historical role, the need for a magical blood Stark has to be on the table.

Had not thought of Joff as chosen one--Cersei's treatment of him as such arguably did much more harm than good. But she does seem to him that way--even if Jaime had the right of it : he deserved to die. Huh--I wonder what that pillow conversation would have been like had Jaime told that to Cersei?

On Tyrion: I'm leaning more towards his eventually being more a problem than a solution. Though, given the state of his family, helping to take them down could arguable be a public service.

An alternative take on the same argument is that it wasn't really a love story, because Bael had his own machinations in mind. That doesn't require a parallel to hold that the nature of the machinations be the same. Bael used the Stark maiden for his own ends. Perhaps Rhaegar used the Stark maiden for his own ends as well, in wanting to get his hands on a StarkSquared baby to fulfil a ritual.

Agreed--though, if the baby was for a ritual, my money would be more on Aerys. He's shown the requisite nastiness. And the weirdly ritualistic "burning-of-victim-then-raping-wife" trend (such a lovely, cuddly man!) So far, Rhaegar's interest in prophecy has been shown via lots of books, knightly training, and harping. A bit of a leap to rituals. . . 

But it's possible--we need more data.

Interesting thought, thanks!

:cheers:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, as you can probably guess, I mightily disagree, and there are two major points I'd like to adress:

I don't agree either, but it needs to be considered.

A couple of problems here:

1) if Lyanna was abducted ten miles from HH, she was NOT travelling from Winterfell to Riverrun, unless she took a detour for some reason. Harrenhal is not on the way to Riverrun (or at least not on the maps I checked) 

Not sure what you're talking about here. We're talking about when she was wandering around the river lands, not a trip from Winterfell to Riverrun. 

2) there must always be a Stark at Winterfell. With Ned in the Vale, Brandon in Riverrun and Benjen with Lyanna, that leaves Rickard as Stark in Winterfell until Benjen's returns after delivering Lyanna to Riverrun. However, as Benjen fails to deliver her, Rickard would still be sitting back home, until Benjen made it back after Lyanna's disappearance. Yet, the wedding party was already nearing Riverrun as we know that Brandon set out from Riverrun to meet them, which means that Rickard was already on his way, or do you presume that there was one wedding party and Rickard would be travelling with another?

What's that from? According to Cat in ACoK ch.55, Brandon was on his way TO Riverrun when he got the news, not from Riverrun. I have been unable to find any evidence for where Rickard was when Lyanna was abducted. If you can find any evidence that suggests that Rickard wasn't in Winterfell when Aerys sent the summons to him, then obviously that would raise a difficult question, but I can't find it.

 
3) there is no such rule as "there must always be a Stark with a Stark maiden", and asserting such a rule clashes with the rule that is actually stated.

I have no idea where you're getting this from, as far as I can see you're the only person to have mentioned this.

I believe you are really missing the Bran factor here.

No, I just don't think it makes any sense.

Bran's fall may have been an accident, but not the attempt at his assassination. Meaning, Bran must have seen or heard something, a secret so dangerous that it was worth killing a Lord Paragon's son for. What was it, and from what source? Definitely not Ned's own Winterfell household, meaning, someone's from the King's retinue. Ned wouldn't have had an idea about every single person accompanying Robert, but he knew that Cersei stayed at Winterfell. The same Cersei who supposedly poisoned Jon Arryn. So, the suspicion of Cersei having both something to hide as well as guts to carry out murder is right there at hand.

What is it that Cersei is hiding? Enters the whole "seed is strong" investigation line, leading to the conclusion that Cersei has cuckolded Robert, and that the prospective father was most likely light-haired (really, why Ned wouldn't be able to draw a generalisation that what applies to Barartheons-Lannisters might apply elsewhere?). A light-haired man who has free access to the queen, doesn't raise suspicion, due to Cersei's pride is most likely highborn, and is somehow related to Bran's accident.

Ned already knows what Cersei is hiding; the fact that she's cuckolded Robert and that her children aren't his. Do you think Robert would have been ok with this if they weren't the children of incest? Of course he wouldn't. It would be their ruin, and very likely Cersei's life. That, right there, is sufficient reason to silence Bran. There is quite simply no reason for Ned to look for some greater sin to be hidden behind the sufficient sin. Why did Ned decide that there was something MORE to what Cersei had done when there's already enough to  have given her reason to kill people who found out? 

I find your whole argument about the father most likely being light haired a bit odd coming from someone who argues that Rhaegar is Jon's father despite Jon not looking like him.  The Genealogies showed Ned that Baratheon  / Lannister marriages produce dark-haired offspring. Nothing is said about Lannister/other couplings. The fact is that we have a lot of blond Lannisters, yet nobody assumes they're the product of incest. Lannisters have been producing blond children for generations, just not with Baratheons. They don't have to resort to incest to produce blond kids, they're experts at it.

Nor is there any necessity that the father would be there in Winterfall with her. Jaime and Cersei might simply have been talking about Cersei's lover, for example. 

The Bran factor just doesn't give any reason to link Jaime to Cersei's children.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, as you can probably guess, I mightily disagree, and there are two major points I'd like to adress:

A couple of problems here:

1) if Lyanna was abducted ten miles from HH, she was NOT travelling from Winterfell to Riverrun, unless she took a detour for some reason. Harrenhal is not on the way to Riverrun (or at least not on the maps I checked)

2) there must always be a Stark at Winterfell. With Ned in the Vale, Brandon in Riverrun and Benjen with Lyanna, that leaves Rickard as Stark in Winterfell until Benjen's returns after delivering Lyanna to Riverrun. However, as Benjen fails to deliver her, Rickard would still be sitting back home, until Benjen made it back after Lyanna's disappearance. Yet, the wedding party was already nearing Riverrun as we know that Brandon set out from Riverrun to meet them, which means that Rickard was already on his way, or do you presume that there was one wedding party and Rickard would be travelling with another?

3) there is no such rule as "there must always be a Stark with a Stark maiden", and asserting such a rule clashes with the rule that is actually stated.

I believe you are really missing the Bran factor here.

Bran's fall may have been an accident, but not the attempt at his assassination. Meaning, Bran must have seen or heard something, a secret so dangerous that it was worth killing a Lord Paragon's son for. What was it, and from what source? Definitely not Ned's own Winterfell household, meaning, someone's from the King's retinue. Ned wouldn't have had an idea about every single person accompanying Robert, but he knew that Cersei stayed at Winterfell. The same Cersei who supposedly poisoned Jon Arryn. So, the suspicion of Cersei having both something to hide as well as guts to carry out murder is right there at hand.

What is it that Cersei is hiding? Enters the whole "seed is strong" investigation line, leading to the conclusion that Cersei has cuckolded Robert, and that the prospective father was most likely light-haired (really, why Ned wouldn't be able to draw a generalisation that what applies to Barartheons-Lannisters might apply elsewhere?). A light-haired man who has free access to the queen, doesn't raise suspicion, due to Cersei's pride is most likely highborn, and is somehow related to Bran's accident.

... Jaime Lannister was at Winterfell, as well.

ETA: I might also add that Ned already considers Jaime as capable next to anything, so the idea that he might be fornicating with his sister is really not surprising in the least.

I'll preface this by saing that i dont buy that Lyanna was abducted but for the purpose of the arguement and people held beliefs.

1. Ygrain when you brought this up before i was confused by it because 10 miles from Harrenhall could mean 10 miles in any direction .So how is that rebuttal relevant?

2. I'm also confused by the second point as in i have no recollection that Benjen accompanied Lyanna during the time she "went missing" If she wasn't going to the wedding as you somehow seem to think (though wrongly) then neither of them were going so where was he taking her?

3. I never heard that one either.

4.They are kinda connected  true .Up until Lysa's letter got there and named the Lannister and the Queen as Arryn's murder(s) Ned thought it was natural causes.He didn't have cause to think Bran's fall wasn't an accident until Cat got there.

5.The bolded i'm shocked considering your arguements

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't agree either, but it needs to be considered.

Not sure what you're talking about here. We're talking about when she was wandering around the river lands, not a trip from Winterfell to Riverrun. 

What's that from? According to Cat in ACoK ch.55, Brandon was on his way TO Riverrun when he got the news, not from Riverrun. I have been unable to find any evidence for where Rickard was when Lyanna was abducted. If you can find any evidence that suggests that Rickard wasn't in Winterfell when Aerys sent the summons to him, then obviously that would raise a difficult question, but I can't find it.

I have no idea where you're getting this from, as far as I can see you're the only person to have mentioned this.

No, I just don't think it makes any sense.

Ned already knows what Cersei is hiding; the fact that she's cuckolded Robert and that her children aren't his. Do you think Robert would have been ok with this if they weren't the children of incest? Of course he wouldn't. It would be their ruin, and very likely Cersei's life. That, right there, is sufficient reason to silence Bran. There is quite simply no reason for Ned to look for some greater sin to be hidden behind the sufficient sin. Why did Ned decide that there was something MORE to what Cersei had done when there's already enough to  have given her reason to kill people who found out? 

I find your whole argument about the father most likely being light haired a bit odd coming from someone who argues that Rhaegar is Jon's father despite Jon not looking like him.  The Genealogies showed Ned that Baratheon  / Lannister marriages produce dark-haired offspring. Nothing is said about Lannister/other couplings. The fact is that we have a lot of blond Lannisters, yet nobody assumes they're the product of incest. Lannisters have been producing blond children for generations, just not with Baratheons. They don't have to resort to incest to produce blond kids, they're experts at it.

Nor is there any necessity that the father would be there in Winterfall with her. Jaime and Cersei might simply have been talking about Cersei's lover, for example. 

The Bran factor just doesn't give any reason to link Jaime to Cersei's children.

 

1. Agreed on the first bolded

2.True 

3.Nah Kingmonkey any many would want to know who he was cuckhold with and Robert would want to know that.Same thing with Jamie when he found Cersie was messing around .Its not enough to know its curiosity to want to know who with.If Ned was was going to come to Robert with this info he would have to know who with because Robert would ask.

4.The red bolded is a shock coming from you as you recognize the specificity of the pairings and what was excluded.

4. I agree the Bran factor doesn't link Cersie to Jamie i think it was just simple observation by Ned and a wild guess which Cersie didn't deny.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure what you're talking about here. We're talking about when she was wandering around the river lands, not a trip from Winterfell to Riverrun. 

And how did she end up wandering around Riverlands? Where from? Why? It wasn't her father's lands where she might have had some freedem to go for a trip. Her presence in the Riverlands makes sense only if she was staying at HH with the Whents, as is often speculated, or headed to Riverrun, whether from Winterfell of from HH, but there are no other places to connect her with. If she was headed from Winterfell, then she would have travelled along with Rickard, and if she was staying with the Whents, there was no need for Benjen to tag along... and again, it would leave us without a Stark in Winterfell once Rickard left for Brandon's wedding.

 

What's that from? According to Cat in ACoK ch.55, Brandon was on his way TO Riverrun when he got the news, not from Riverrun. I have been unable to find any evidence for where Rickard was when Lyanna was abducted. If you can find any evidence that suggests that Rickard wasn't in Winterfell when Aerys sent the summons to him, then obviously that would raise a difficult question, but I can't find it.

Yes but Brandon went from Riverrun and back - he had promised Cat to return soon but never had.

There is somewhere a piece of info that Brandon supposedly went to meet the Northerners coming to his wedding. I don't have the app, so I don't know if Rickard is explicitely mentioned, but it would be strange if he wasn't present for his heir's wedding.

I have no idea where you're getting this from, as far as I can see you're the only person to have mentioned this.

Well, you said that Lyanna would have had to be accompanied by one of her brothers but the books never states that, while it does say that there always must be a Stark in Winterfell. 

BTW, if Rickard wanted Lyanna supervised to make sure that she behaved, I don't see how he would have relied on her younger brother in this.

Ned already knows what Cersei is hiding; the fact that she's cuckolded Robert and that her children aren't his. Do you think Robert would have been ok with this if they weren't the children of incest? Of course he wouldn't. It would be their ruin, and very likely Cersei's life. That, right there, is sufficient reason to silence Bran. There is quite simply no reason for Ned to look for some greater sin to be hidden behind the sufficient sin. Why did Ned decide that there was something MORE to what Cersei had done when there's already enough to  have given her reason to kill people who found out? 

You're missing my point. It doesn't matter what Ned knows, but what or how Bran found out to nearly get himself killed, and there are basically just two options: overhearing the guilty party talking, or seeing them at it. The only person Cersei could reasonably have been talking to about it was her lover, so whether it was talk or the deed itself, they were both at Winterfell at that moment.

 

I find your whole argument about the father most likely being light haired a bit odd coming from someone who argues that Rhaegar is Jon's father despite Jon not looking like him.  

Except that Rhaegar had already produced one child that took after the mother.

 

The Genealogies showed Ned that Baratheon  / Lannister marriages produce dark-haired offspring. Nothing is said about Lannister/other couplings. The fact is that we have a lot of blond Lannisters, yet nobody assumes they're the product of incest. Lannisters have been producing blond children for generations, just not with Baratheons. They don't have to resort to incest to produce blond kids, they're experts at it.

I'd still think that with three golden-haired children, looking for father among golden-haired men is not a stretch of logic, but since this is in no way a major point for me, I'll concede it to you. Either way, we are looking for a high-ranking man who has had acess to the queen for +12 years, without raising any suspicion. The list of candidates is not that awfully long.

 

Nor is there any necessity that the father would be there in Winterfall with her. Jaime and Cersei might simply have been talking about Cersei's lover, for example. 

Well... you're right that her brother might perhaps be the only person other than the hypothetical lover whom Cersei might confide to, but if Cersei is so intimate with her brother to discuss such things with him, is it really such a leap of logic to take the intimacy a just a little bit further?

Besides, even talking itself makes Jaime complicit - and if the complicit man fits the profile of the culprit, again, not a leap of logic to start suspecting him.

 

The Bran factor just doesn't give any reason to link Jaime to Cersei's children.

Now this is exaggerated. I wouldn't argue if you claimed that the cause is not sufficient, but suspecting a person who is already involved is not really illogical in any way. 

And if you believe that there is no way "incest" could have crossed Ned's mind without having an example in his family, you should start building a case for how Ned entirely forgot about the Targ incest that was true for the better part of his life.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ygrain that whole Lyanna must have been staying at the Whent's don't make sense.Wouldn't it make sense considering all that happened for Lyanna not to be there?

Furthermore, if it was about teaching Lyanna the ways of a sudden court why not go to River run and stay with the Tully's so she could learn from Cat and Lysa.

That would also ensure she would also be there for the Wedding anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SSM specifies that at the end of the war, Benjen was in Winterfell. We simply don't know where he was at the start of the war; the idea that he had been the Stark in Winterfell throughout is purely guesswork. 

It looks like I missed some very interesting discussion, kingmonkey! Let me respond to your response to my post.

I should have been clearer in my response. It is not that the SSM specifies when Benjen gets to Winterfell, only that it makes clear a point in the books that Martin means there is a tradition that "there must always be a Stark in Winterfell." This combined with knowledge of the other Stark locations points to Benjen being in Winterfell to fulfill this responsibility when Rickard leaves for the Wedding. We know where Lyanna is when the "Kidnapping" takes place - 10 leagues from Harrenhal, and we know where Brandon is when he hears the news of that event - on the road to Riverrun. We may be wrong in our assumption that Ned is in the Vale with Jon Arryn and Robert when he hears the news, but it is an assumption that makes a lot of sense. First, because we know that is where he is when Aerys's calls for his head, and, second, because it probably takes both Ned and Jon plus whatever drink they can shove down Robert's gullet from doing precisely what Brandon does. That leaves Benjen and Rickard, and we know Rickard has to be on his way to the wedding if he is to make it to Riverrun at the appointed time.

If we are to take the tradition of there needing to alway be a Stark in Winterfell seriously, as the SSM seems to indicate, it means Benjen is already in Winterfell when the kidnapping takes place.

Notice from the following it is clear that it is Benjen who must play the role of the Stark in Winterfell during the rebellion, not some other Stark.

"6) When, specifically, did Benjen join the NW? Was it a couple of years after Ned returned, or immediately?

It was within a few months of Ned's returning. The reason being that there always was a Stark at Winterfell, so he had to stay there until Ned returned. GRRM refused to say the reason why Benjen had to join the NW." SSM 1328

 

I don't know of anything that precludes the possibility that Benjen was accompanying Lyanna on her way to Riverrun before heading alone to Winterfell to be the Stark in Winterfell, while Rickard then headed south. We know that Brandon was on his way to Riverrun. Why, if Rickard was also on his way to Riverrun, were they not travelling together? Where did Aerys send the summons to Rickard to? For that matter, we have virtually no information on Lyarra Stark. Maybe she was the Stark in Winterfell at the time. 

Nothing precludes Benjen from going along with Lyanna except we know he does go to Winterfell and takes up his role there before his father leaves the castle. Given the wedding is to have taken place in a short period time from when the "kidnapping" takes place, one has to give enough time for Benjen to be in Winterfell by a date that allows his father to be at the wedding. I think it likely he is there all along, but I could be wrong and he stayed in the south with Lyanna for a period of time.

I think Lyarra is already dead by this time. If not, why would Benjen have to be the Stark in Winterfell? It's also possible she is part of Rickard's party going to see her son wed at Riverrun, but from the answers Martin gave us for years about who was Ned's mom it seems likely she dies before this time. Note it is only with the publication of TWoI&F that we get to know her name.

That's exactly the problem. The idea that her own brother is the most likely candidate for being the father of her children is a pretty odd one. Whatever the reason, we are not shown Ned's thought processes where he comes to this conclusion. 

What I tried to show by the difference between Ned's questions about Jaime being the father and his statements about all of Cersei's children not being Robert's is that the first is a guess and the second he knows to be fact. Cersei confirms to Ned that Jaime is their father - most likely because of the same reason Ser Dontos speaks to Sansa only in the godswood. There she can be assured they can't be overheard. What does she care if Ned knows something he can't prove? And then there is still that idea that one can't lie in a godswood, although I think that really means before a weirwood tree.

Is it odd that after knowing Cersei cheated on Robert in conceiving all of her children that Ned comes up with the right guess? Not really. The evidence is there. What one man does Cersei consistently go to over the course of her time at Winterfell, the trip south, and at King's Landing? Jaime. Ned has observed his enemies as they have him. He knows the closeness between the twins. In fact, Cersei and Jaime use the incest taboo to deflect attention to their longtime affair. Once you know, however, she is cheating, it isn't that hard of a guess.

 

Why is there a lack of other candidates? Cersei lives in a city of a million people. The genealogies tell us that Lannister/Baratheon crosses result in dark-haired children, not that crosses between Lannisters and anyone else result in dark-haired children. The proposal in this essay is that the specific notion that a child who looks like one parent might be the product of that parent and her sibling would be a natural one for someone who has witnessed exactly that to take. On the contrary, if Jon is NOT the product of incest, then Ned has only counter-examples to draw this conclusion from.

If all one has to do to be a candidate is to be male and within a days ride of Cersei, then you would be right. There are hundreds of thousands of candidates. If one restricts the candidates to males Cersei is close to, then Jaime stands out like a sore thumb.

And what I'm saying that Ned needs no close contact with incest to make his guess. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Her presence in the Riverlands makes sense only if she was staying at HH with the Whents, as is often speculated,

speculated by who? And how often?

Your boy MtnLion chastised me for suggesting this awhile back. Said it was a "great example of someone reading something on here and accepting it as canon." Blatant irony aside, there is no evidence that she was staying with the Whents. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If one restricts the candidates to males Cersei is close to, then Jaime stands out like a sore thumb.

And he is also the one whom Ned despises and distrusts, which makes him a perfect candidate for anything vile and despicable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And he is also the one whom Ned despises and distrusts, which makes him a perfect candidate for anything vile and despicable.

True. While I sympathize more with Jaime on the reasons Ned despises him - the killing of Aerys in particular - Ned's view of what Jaime did does make it easy to understand why he would leap to believe Jaime capable of any sin imaginable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

B+L=J was my favorite theory for Jon's parentage for a while, but I think H+L=J&M had more supporting evidence, like Jon's small stature, the supernatural success of the KotLT, the similarities between Jon and Meera, the twin symbolism the one time Jon and Meera were near each other, and Meera carrying around but not wearing the helmet which I think was worn by TKotLT.

I am not a true believer in any one theory, but I am with Paris on R+L=J seeming too obvious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3.Nah Kingmonkey any many would want to know who he was cuckhold with and Robert would want to know that.Same thing with Jamie when he found Cersie was messing around .Its not enough to know its curiosity to want to know who with.If Ned was was going to come to Robert with this info he would have to know who with because Robert would ask.

Oh unquestionably. However unless I've misread what you're responding to here, the question of sufficiency is not whether Ned has determined a sufficient amount of information, but what is sufficient to cause Cersei to want to silence Bran. Let's look at Ned's deductive process here.

Data point 1. Bran fell. Bran never falls.

Data point 2. An assassin was subsequently sent to try to kill Bran.

Deduction 1 > Bran's fall was an attempt to murder Bran. The follow up attempt indicates that the guilty party believed the initial failure had to be corrected. (data points 1 & 2)

Deduction  2 > Someone wanted to silence Bran. (follows from deduction 1)

Data point 3. Cersei's children are blond.

Data point 4. Baratheon / Lannister crosses produce dark haired children.

Deduction 3 > Cersei's children are not Roberts. Cersei has been cheating on Robert. (data points 3&4)

Data point 5. Jon Arryn had uncovered the secret of Cersei's children.

Data point 6. Jon Arryn was murdered.

Deduction 5 > Jon Arryn was murdered to protect the secret of Cersei's children. (data points 5 &6)

Data point 5. Cersei was present at Winterfell, with a deadly secret that people get murdered to protect, when the attempt was made on Bran's life.

Deduction 6> Bran must have accidentally stumbled on Cersei's secret, thus making him a target in the same way that Jon Arryn was.  (data point 5 & deduction 5)

Data point 7> Jaime was at Winterfell with Cersei, and is very close to Cersei.

Deduction 7> Jaime was the father of Cersei's children (insufficient data to make this deduction).

The problem I am pointing out here is that somehow Ned also deduced that Jaime was the father of Cersei's children. Data points 3&4 excludes Robert, but does not point to Jaime. Deduction 3 reveals a secret that would ruin Cersei if discovered. Data points 5 & 6 indicate that this secret is something that the Lannisters are prepared to kill to avoid being uncovered.  Deduction 6 is a decent deduction, arising from the information we know Ned had at this time. 

The big problem is deduction 7. Ned might deduce that Jaime was probably the one to have pushed Bran, because he's very close to Cersei, he'd want to protect her & the Lannisters, and Ned might think he's a lot more likely to commit a murder than Cersei would (he's murdered a king, after all). However, if Cersei had been having an affair with someone at court, or even multiple people, then exactly the same principle holds here. Jaime would STILL try to protect Cersei and the Lannisters by trying to kill Bran. 

We are missing a data point. What gives Ned reason to deduce that Jaime was the father, rather than simply protecting his sister's secret (and probably life)?

I can see only two explanations for this. Either there is a data point that Ned had which has not been revealed to us, or GRRM made a (rather common) error in writing the mystery. An author has do work the process of deduction out backwards, going from solution to clues, and it's an easy mistake to make, when you already know the answer, to not spot that there is insufficient data for a step of the deductions to be made. 

As I favour RLJ, I tend to believe that the latter case is what actually happened here. However, it's a point in favour of the incest theory that it actually provides that missing data point, and provides a reason why GRRM might have chosen to exclude that data point from Ned's PoV.   

4.The red bolded is a shock coming from you as you recognize the specificity of the pairings and what was excluded.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. It's right there in the text. Could you elaborate?

4. I agree the Bran factor doesn't link Cersie to Jamie i think it was just simple observation by Ned and a wild guess which Cersie didn't deny.

Possible, though Ned goes into that meeting with Cersei apparently confident that he has it all figured out. If it's a wild guess, it's a rather odd one to make. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...