Lost Melnibonean

Varys Orchestrated the Kidnapping of Tyrek to Use Him against House Lannister when the Time Was Right for Aegon to Assert His Claim

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The most prevalent reason given for Varys’s presumed abduction of Tyrek is that Varys will employ Tyrek as the puppet lord of Casterly Rock. But then why didn’t Varys have Tyrion, who stands ahead of Tyrek in the line of succession, killed? And why go so far down the line of succession? When he was abducted, about nine Lannisters stood ahead of him in the line of succession. I think there must be some other reason.

Part I

The George first introduces us to an unnamed Tyrek Lannister through Eddard’s point of view. . .

Ned had hoped to discover the king still abed in a wine-soaked sleep, but luck was not with him. They found Robert drinking beer from a polished horn and roaring his displeasure at two young squires who were trying to buckle him into his armor. “Your Grace,” one was saying, almost in tears, “it’s made too small, it won’t go.” He fumbled, and the gorget he was trying to fit around Robert's thick neck tumbled to the ground.

“Seven hells!” Robert swore. “Do I have to do it myself? Piss on the both of you. Pick it up. Don’t just stand there gaping, Lancel, pick it up!”

Eddard VII, Game 30

Looking at the Appendix to Game, we learn that the name of the other squire is Tyrek Lannister, that Tyrek’s father is the late Tygett Lannister, who had been Tywin’s second brother before dying of a pox, and that that Tyrek’s mother is Darlessa Marbrand.

The lad jumped, and the king noticed his company. “Look at these oafs, Ned. My wife insisted I take these two to squire for me, and they’re worse than useless. Can’t even put a man’s armor on him properly. Squires, they say. I say they’re swineherds dressed up in silk.”

Eddard VII, Game 30

Notice here that Cersei had insisted that Robert take two of her cousins on as squires. His open contempt for them reinforces our understanding of the resentment Robert feels toward House Lannister. It also suggests that Tyrek and Lancel had no reason to be fond of Robert.

Ned only needed a glance to understand the difficulty. “The boys are not at fault,” he told the king. “You’re too fat for your armor, Robert.”

Robert Baratheon took a long swallow of beer, tossed the empty horn onto his sleeping furs, wiped his mouth with the back of his hand, and said darkly, “Fat? Fat, is it? Is that how you speak to your king?” He let go his laughter, sudden as a storm. “Ah, damn you, Ned, why are you always right?”

The squires smiled nervously until the king turned on them. “You. Yes, both of you. You heard the Hand. The king is too fat for his armor. Go find Ser Aron Santagar. Tell him I need the breastplate stretcher. Now! What are you waiting for?”

The boys tripped over each other in their haste to be quit of the tent. Robert managed to keep a stern face until they were gone. Then he dropped back into a chair, shaking with laughter.

Eddard VII, Game 30

As an aside, when I was serving in the 10th Mountain, I recall my platoon sergeant sending a pair of newbies off in search of grid squares for a map. After learning how to play the game, I recall sending some newbies off in search of Kim light batteries.

Ser Barristan Selmy chuckled with him. Even Eddard Stark managed a smile. Always, though, the graver thoughts crept in. He could not help taking note of the two squires: handsome boys, fair and well made. One was Sansa’s age, with long golden curls; the other perhaps fifteen, sandy-haired, with a wisp of a mustache and the emerald-green eyes of the queen.

Eddard VII, Game 30

Skipping ahead, we learn later that Lancel is the squire with the sandy hair, wisp of a mustache and emerald-green eyes. . .

Lancel had thick sandy hair, green Lannister eyes, and a line of soft blond fuzz on his upper lip.

Tyrion VI, Clash 25

So, we learn that Tyrek had long, curly, golden hair, and that he was approximately Sansa’s age, and we had learned earlier that Sansa was eleven at the time. . .

“Sansa is only eleven.”

Eddard I, Game 4

Of course, that means Tyrek would be approximately 14 by the end of Dance.

“Ah, I wish I could be there to see Santagar’s face,” Robert said. “I hope he’ll have the wit to send them to someone else. We ought to keep them running all day!”

“Those boys,” Ned asked him. “Lannisters?”

Robert nodded, wiping tears from his eyes. “Cousins. Sons of Lord Tywin’s brother. One of the dead ones. Or perhaps the live one, now that I come to think on it. I don’t recall. My wife comes from a very large family, Ned.”

A very ambitious family, Ned thought. He had nothing against the squires, but it troubled him to see Robert surrounded by the queen’s kin, waking and sleeping. The Lannister appetite for offices and honors seemed to know no bounds.

Eddard VII, Game 30

As noted above, we learn later from the Appendix to Game that Tyrek is the son of one of Tywin’s deceased brothers, and we also learn that Lancel is the son of Tywin’s living brother. More importantly though, we see that House Lannister, driven by Tywin and backed by Cersei, is taking every possible advantage to enhance their influence over the Iron Throne and to reap the benefits.

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Part II

Later we learn that Lancel may have been complicit in Robert’s death. . .

The white-haired knight gave a weary nod. “His Grace was reeling in his saddle by the time we flushed the boar from his lair, yet he commanded us all to stand aside.”

“I wonder, Ser Barristan,” asked Varys, so quietly, “who gave the king this wine? 

Ned had not heard the eunuch approach, but when he looked around, there he stood. He wore a black velvet robe that brushed the floor, and his face was freshly powdered.

“The wine was from the king’s own skin,” Ser Barristan said.

“Only one skin? Hunting is such thirsty work.”

“I did not keep count. More than one, for a certainty. His squire would fetch him a fresh skin whenever he required it.”

“Such a dutiful boy,” said Varys, “to make certain His Grace did not lack for refreshment.”

Ned had a bitter taste in his mouth. He recalled the two fair-haired boys Robert had sent chasing after a breastplate stretcher. The king had told everyone the tale that night at the feast, laughing until he shook. “Which squire?”

“The elder,” said Ser Barristan. “Lancel.”

“I know the lad well,” said Varys. “A stalwart boy, Ser Kevan Lannister’s son, nephew to Lord Tywin and cousin to the queen. I hope the dear sweet lad does not blame himself. Children are so vulnerable in the innocence of their youth, how well do I remember.”

Certainly Varys had once been young. Ned doubted that he had ever been innocent.

Eddard XIII, Game 47

We know that Varys knows, or at least can know, everything that is said within the buildings of the Red Keep. Here we see Varys pointedly asking Barristan about the wine served to the king by Lancel. With veiled sarcasm Varys shows Eddard how Cersei and Lancel plotted to murder Robert. However, we don’t see any indication that the eleven-year-old Tyrek was involved in the plot.

We do learn early in Clash, though, that Tyrek was rewarded. . .

Most of the spectators were guardsmen in the gold cloaks of the City Watch or the crimson of House Lannister; of lords and ladies there were but a paltry few, the handful that remained at court. Grey-faced Lord Gyles Rosby was coughing into a square of pink silk. Lady Tanda was bracketed by her daughters, placid dull Lollys and acid-tongued Falyse. Ebon-skinned Jalabhar Xho was an exile who had no other refuge, Lady Ermesande a babe seated on her wet nurse's lap. The talk was she would soon be wed to one of the queen’s cousins, so the Lannisters might claim her lands.

Sansa I, Clash 2

However, it appears that in becoming lord of Hayford, Tyrek was simply the beneficiary of being a Lannister. Cersei admits to Tyrion that she conspired with Lancel. There is no mention of Tyrek. . .

“How did you kill Robert?”

“He did that himself. All we did was help. When Lancel saw that Robert was going after boar, he gave him strongwine. His favorite sour red, but fortified, three times as potent as he was used to. The great stinking fool loved it. He could have stopped swilling it down anytime he cared to, but no, he drained one skin and told Lancel to fetch another. The boar did the rest. You should have been at the feast, Tyrion. There has never been a boar so delicious. They cooked it with mushrooms and apples, and it tasted like triumph.”

Tyrion I, Clash 3

We see that Cersei hated Robert, and as Varys had suggested to Eddard, that she had been trying to have him killed for some time, but we see no indication that Tyrek was directly involved or complicit in the death of Robert.

Here we learn that Tyrek’s wedding is approaching. . .

“You expect her to sleep with all the noise?” Clegane said. “What was the trouble?”

“Fools at the gate,” Ser Boros admitted. “Some loose tongues spread tales of the preparations for Tyrek’s wedding feast, and these wretches got it in their heads they should be feasted too. His Grace led a sortie and sent them scurrying.”

Sansa II, Clash 18

And here we learn, that House Lannister now holds sway over House Hayford. . .

Courtiers filled the gallery while supplicants clustered near the towering oak-and-bronze doors. Sansa Stark looked especially lovely this morning, though her face was as pale as milk. Lord Gyles stood coughing, while poor cousin Tyrek wore his bridegroom’s mantle of miniver and velvet. Since his marriage to little Lady Ermesande three days past, the other squires had taken to calling him “Wet Nurse” and asking him what sort of swaddling clothes his bride wore on their wedding night.

Tyrion VI, Clash 25

Here, we learn how Cersei corrupted young Lancel. . .

“So I've noted. Tell me—did Cersei have you knighted before or after she took you into her bed?”

The flicker in Lancel’s green eyes was all the admission Tyrion needed. So Varys told it true.

Tyrion IX, Clash 41

And now we know that Varys knew what was going on between Cersei and Lancel. Given Cersei’s method, we should assume that she did not corrupt the even younger Tyrek as she corrupted young Lancel. The following quote leaves no doubt that Cersei and Lancel conspired together to give Robert enough strongwine so that he would endanger himself. . .

“Have you given any thought to what Joffrey will do when I tell him you murdered his father to bed his mother?”

“It was not like that!" Lancel protested, horrified.

“No? What was it like, pray?”

“The queen gave me the strongwine! Your own father Lord Tywin, when I was named the king’s squire, he told me to obey her in everything.”

Tyrion VII, Clash 29

And there should be no doubt that Varys was very aware of Cersei’s corruption of, and conspiracy with, Lancel.

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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Part III

Later, we read that Tyrek goes missing during the riot in King’s Landing as the city waits for battle with Stannis. . .

Quote

Ser Preston is not returned,” Ser Boros Blount reported, “nor Aron Santagar.”

“Nor Wet Nurse,” said Ser Horas Redwyne. That was the mocking name the other squires had hung on young Tyrek Lannister.

Tyrion IX, Clash 41

And we learn that Tyrion very much wants Tyrek found. . .

Quote

Tyrek was still missing, as was the High Septon’s crystal crown. Nine gold cloaks had been slain, two score wounded. No one had troubled to count how many of the mob had died.

“I want Tyrek found, alive or dead,” Tyrion said curtly when Bywater was done. “He’s no more than a boy. Son to my late uncle Tygett. His father was always kind to me.”

Tyrion IX, Clash 41

Here, we begin to learn that Tyrion’s three uncles were much kinder to him than his father. Later, Tyrion discusses the ongoing search for Tyrek with Addam Marbrand. . .

Quote

“Do you come from my father?” he asked.

“Aye. I fear I did not leave him in the best of moods. Lord Tywin feels forty-four hundred guardsmen more than sufficient to find one lost squire, but your cousin Tyrek remains missing.”

Tyrek was the son of his late Uncle Tygett, a boy of thirteen. He had vanished in the riot, not long after wedding the Lady Ermesande, a suckling babe who happened to be the last surviving heir of House Hayford. And likely the first bride in the history of the Seven Kingdoms to be widowed before she was weaned. “I couldn't find him either,” confessed Tyrion.

“He’s feeding worms,” said Bronn with his usual tact. “Ironhand looked for him, and the eunuch rattled a nice fat purse. They had no more luck than we did. Give it up, ser.”

Ser Addam gazed at the sellsword with distaste. “Lord Tywin is stubborn where his blood is concerned. He will have the lad, alive or dead, and I mean to oblige him.” He looked back to Tyrion. “You will find your father in his solar.”

Tyrion I, Storm 4

First, notice that Addam Marbrand shares a blood relation with Tyrek, whose mother was from House Marbrand. Perhaps, Darlessa was Addam’s sister, and Tyrek was Addam’s nephew? If so, we can see why Tywin would have led Addam to believe that Tywin’s primary interest in finding Tyrek was concern for his nephew, but we also know that House Lannister stands to lose sway over Hayford should Tyrek not be found. Alive, of course would be best, but if a dead Tyrek is recovered, Tywin could secure Hayford by arranging a marriage to another Lannister.

But the potential loss of Hayford is not a sufficient reason for the storyteller to keep redirecting the reader’s attention to the mystery surrounding the disappearance of Tyrek. We did see Bronn tell Addam that Varys purportedly attempted to recover Tyrek as well. Since we know that Varys has a great deal of knowledge of events in King’s Landing, we should assume one of two things here: Either Tyrek’s disappearance was so cleverly done, it fooled Varys; or Varys himself was behind it.

If Varys was not behind it, then who was? The only characters I can think of who take active steps to avoid Varys’s little birds are Petyr, Renly, and Olenna. I just don’t see why any of those three would be interested in kidnapping and possibly murdering Tyrek. Doran seems to be the kind of player who can manipulate the board, perhaps even in King’s Landing, without Varys’s knowledge, but again, I don’t see why he would be interested in kidnapping and possibly murdering Tyrek. So, that leaves us with Varys. . .

Quote

“Dragons and krakens do not interest me, regardless of the number of their heads,” said Lord Tywin. “Have your whisperers perchance found some trace of my brother’s son?”

“Alas, our beloved Tyrek has quite vanished, the poor brave lad.” Varys sounded close to tears.

Tyrion III, Storm 19

Yeap. Varys. But Why?

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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Part IV

In The Sworn Sword we learn a bit about Hayford. . .

Quote

“Your Egg reminds me of my Addam. A brave boy, for one so young. Addam was trying to protect his wounded brother Harrold when the battle washed over them. A riverman with six acorns on his shield took his arm off with an ax.” His sad gray eyes found Dunk’s. “This old master of yours, the knight of Pennytree . . . did he fight in the Blackfyre Rebellion?”

“He did, m’lord. Before he took me on.” Dunk had been no more than three or four at the time, running half naked through the alleys of Flea Bottom, more animal than boy.

“Was he for the red dragon or the black?”

Red or black? was a dangerous question, even now. Since the days of Aegon the Conqueror, the arms of House Targaryen had borne a three-headed dragon, red on black. Daemon the Pretender had reversed those colors on his own banners, as many bastards did. Ser Eustace is my liege lord, Dunk reminded himself. He has a right to ask. “He fought beneath Lord Hayford’s banner, m’lord.”

“Green fretty over gold, a green pale wavy?”

“It might be, m’lord. Egg would know.” The lad could recite the arms of half the knights in Westeros.

“Lord Hayford was a noted loyalist. King Daeron made him his Hand just before the battle. Butterwell had done such a dismal job that many questioned his loyalty, but Lord Hayford had been stalwart from the first.”

“Ser Arlan was beside him when he fell. A lord with three castles on his shield cut him down.”

The Sworn Sword

So, we know that House Hayford of Crownlands was loyal to Daeron Targaryen during the Blackfyre Rebellion, and that a Peake killed the Lord of Hayford during the Battle of Redgrass Field. Most, but not all, perceptive readers believe that Varys is in league with the new Blackfyre. Could this have something to do with the disappearance of Tyrek Lannister, the new Lord of Hayford? In any event, the storyteller directs us back to Cersei. . .

Quote

Lancel nodded, plainly miserable. “When it seemed that I might die, my father brought the High Septon to pray for me. He is a good man.” Her cousin’s eyes were wet and shiny, a child’s eyes in an old man’s face. ‘He says the Mother spared me for some holy purpose, so I might atone for my sins.”

Cersei wondered how he intended to atone for her. Knighting him was a mistake, and bedding him a bigger one. Lancel was a weak reed, and she liked his newfound piety not at all; he had been much more amusing when he was trying to be Jaime. What has this mewling fool told the High Septon? And what will he tell his little Frey when they lie together in the dark? If he confessed to bedding Cersei, well, she could weather that. Men were always lying about women; she would put it down as the braggadocio of a callow boy smitten by her beauty. If he sings of Robert and the strongwine, though . . . “Atonement is best achieved through prayer,” Cersei told him. “Silent prayer.” She left him to think about that and girded herself to face the Tyrell host.

Cersei II, Feast 7

Here we see that Cersei realized the threat to her of Lancel’s knowledge, but we still have no indication that the very young Tyrek had any knowledge of the plot to kill Robert. But Jaime wonders. . .

Quote

The lady of the castle was a Lannister by marriage, a plump toddler who had been wed to his cousin Tyrek before she was a year old. Lady Ermesande was duly trotted out for their approval, all trussed up in a little gown of cloth-of-gold, with the green fretty and green pale wavy of House Hayford rendered in tiny beads of jade. But soon enough the girl began to squall, whereupon she was promptly whisked off to bed by her wet nurse.

Jaime III, Feast 27

Notice that Ermesande is dressed in green fretty and green pale wavy in beads of jade. And don’t forget Eustace described Hayford’s colors too, green fretty over gold, a green pale wavy. That’s a whole lot of green. As has been argued elsewhere Aegon is believed by many readers to be The Blackfyre, and it is often suggested that he will fight Daenerys in a second Dance of the Dragons. As the black dragon of House Blackfyre stands against the red dragon of House Targaryen, we recall the greens versus the blacks in the Dance of the Dragons. So, many of us assume that The George associates green with Aegon. So, perhaps, this is another hint that Tyrek’s abduction has something to do with securing the support of House Hayford for Aegon?

Quote

”Has there been no word of our Lord Tyrek?” her castellan asked as a course of trout was served.

“None.” Tyrek Lannister had vanished during the riots in King’s Landing whilst Jaime himself was still captive at Riverrun. The boy would be fourteen by now, assuming he was still alive.

“I led a search myself, at Lord Tywin’s command,” offered Addam Marbrand as he boned his fish, “but I found no more than Bywater had before me. The boy was last seen ahorse, when the press of the mob broke the line of gold cloaks. Afterward . . . well, his palfrey was found, but not the rider. Most like they pulled him down and slew him. But if that's so, where is his body? The mob let the other corpses lie, why not his?”

Jaime III, Feast 27

Here, the storyteller suggests to the reader that the boy is alive.

Quote

“He would be of more value alive,” suggested Strongboar. “Any Lannister would bring a hefty ransom.”

“No doubt,” Marbrand agreed, “yet no ransom demand was ever made. The boy is simply gone.”

Jaime III, Feast 27

But not held for ransom. So, for what purpose, and by whom, is Tyrek Lannister being held in secret? Jaime wonders whether Cersei had Varys have him disposed of. . 

Quote

“The boy is dead.” Jaime had drunk three cups of wine, and his golden hand seemed to be growing heavier and clumsier by the moment. A hook would serve me just as well. “If they realized whom they’d killed, no doubt they threw him in the river for fear of my father’s wrath. They know the taste of that in King’s Landing. Lord Tywin always paid his debts.”

“Always,” Strongboar agreed, and that was the end of that.

Yet afterward, alone in the tower room he had been offered for the night, Jaime found himself wondering. Tyrek had served King Robert as a squire, side by side with Lancel. Knowledge could be more valuable than gold, more deadly than a dagger. It was Varys he thought of then, smiling and smelling of lavender. The eunuch had agents and informers all over the city. It would have been a simple matter for him to arrange to have Tyrek snatched during the confusion . . . provided he knew beforehand that the mob was like to riot. And Varys knew all, or so he would have us believe. Yet he gave Cersei no warning of that riot. Nor did he ride down to the ships to see Myrcella off.

Jaime III, Feast 27

So, perhaps, Varys orchestrated the kidnapping of Tyrek to use him against House Lannister when the time was right for Aegon to assert his claim? Tyrek could be made to testify that Cersei and Lancel conspired to murder Robert. Since Aegon is presumed to be a Targaryen, the loyalist House Hayford, and other houses of the Crownlands, should be inclined to back the Targaryen claimant. . .

Quote

From Maidenpool had come Lord Mooton, from Raventree Lord Blackwood, from Duskendale Lord Darklyn. The royal demenses about King’s Landing sent forth Hayfords, Rosbys, Stokeworths, Masseys, and the king’s own sworn swords, led by three knights of the Kingsguard and stiffened by three hundred Raven’s Teeth with tall white weirwood bows. Mad Danelle Lothston herself rode forth in strength from her haunted towers at Harrenhal, clad in black armor that fit her like an iron glove, her long red hair streaming.

The Mystery Knight

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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I don't know everything that will go in the next parts so I will edit this comment later, but I believe in this theory for a few reasons.  Tyrion gets suspicious of Varys because he was not there, later Jaime has a suspicion that Varys was involved, and we actually have an example of Varys hiding someone in the city successfully, specifically hiding her from Lannisters, Shae.

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I believe it.

When Tyrion asked Varys about his whereabouts during the riots of King's Landing, the eunuch replies "About the king's business." 

I have other theories on the disappearance but yeah I believe this version is possible. 

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Certainly possible. While I think Lord Baelish had a hand in the riot it would certainly be keeping in Varys character to turn it to his advantage.

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yup absolutely sure Varys was behind Tyrek's disappearance. And I think you lay out two very good reasons for him to do so. 

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Tyrek was forced to wed Ermesande Hayford before she even learned how to speak. The Faith is supposed to be loosely based on the Roman Catholic Church. In the RCC, that would not be considered a valid marriage. In Medieval Europe, marriages were sometimes performed by proxy; marriages were sometimes performed with underage participants with contracts explicitly delaying consummation. The actual act of consenting by saying "I do" was, however, considered to be the very heart of the sacrament. If one of the participants was not old enough to speak or otherwise indicate consent, there could be no marriage. (source: This came up in Tuchman's A Distant Mirror.)

If this holds true for the Faith as well, Tyrek's marriage is not valid, and probably sacrilegious. Tyrek's disappearance may not have been involuntary - he may have wanted out of the marriage, either for personal or religious reasons. He might have gone to Varys for help. And received help from the Faith as well, as the septons were probably coerced as well.

Edited by Ibbison from Ibben

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Varys most likely abducted Tyrek because he wanted to use him to publicly discredit the claims of Cersei's children and/or to reveal his knowledge about Robert's murder (he may have been privy to certain things considering that he was rewarded with a very good marriage for an insignificant Lannister cousin).

But that is really old news, is it not?

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I've long held the view that Tyrek is not dead for no more reason than it serves no literary purpose to keep bringing him up if he's just dead (just like Benjen). I'm not even opposed to theory that Varys has him. The biggest thing for me is they why. While this is well thought out this theory, my issue with it is this is a lot to go through just for House Hayford. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hayford is not an important nor even a semi-important. They also don't seem to hold any particular favor with any important house or enough small houses to make any real difference. I just can't see Varys doing just for the Hayfords.

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Varys had the opportunity to kidnap Kevan, which would be far more valuable.

In fact, I think that if Varys wanted, he would just have all of the Lannisters in the red keep killed.

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Tyrek is Tygett's son so his position in the inheritance line is below Kevan's children, Lancel, Martin and Janei. 
The only way he can be lord of CR is if all of them dead, but i suppose Varys could arrange that

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Certainly possible. While I think Lord Baelish had a hand in the riot it would certainly be keeping in Varys character to turn it to his advantage.

Why do you think Petyr was involved? 

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Tyrek was forced to wed Ermesande Hayford before she even learned how to speak. The Faith is supposed to be loosely based on the Roman Catholic Church. In the RCC, that would not be considered a valid marriage. In Medieval Europe, marriages were sometimes performed by proxy; marriages were sometimes performed with underage participants with contracts explicitly delaying consummation. The actual act of consenting by saying "I do" was, however, considered to be the very heart of the sacrament. If one of the participants was not old enough to speak or otherwise indicate consent, there could be no marriage. (source: This came up in Tuchman's A Distant Mirror.)

If this holds true for the Faith as well, Tyrek's marriage is not valid, and probably sacrilegious. Tyrek's disappearance may not have been involuntary - he may have wanted out of the marriage, either for personal or religious reasons. He might have gone to Varys for help. And received help from the Faith as well, as the septons were probably coerced as well.

So he just escaped into a life of anonymity? 

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Varys most likely abducted Tyrek because he wanted to use him to publicly discredit the claims of Cersei's children and/or to reveal his knowledge about Robert's murder (he may have been privy to certain things considering that he was rewarded with a very good marriage for an insignificant Lannister cousin).

But that is really old news, is it not?

I haven't seen many suggest that. I've seen a lot of folks suggest Varys kidnapped him to turn him into a puppet ruler of the Westerlands. Didja read the OP? Didja see the stuff I laid out regarding the Blackfyre and House Hayford?  Or didja just read the topic title? 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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I've long held the view that Tyrek is not dead for no more reason than it serves no literary purpose to keep bringing him up if he's just dead (just like Benjen). I'm not even opposed to theory that Varys has him. The biggest thing for me is they why. While this is well thought out this theory, my issue with it is this is a lot to go through just for House Hayford. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hayford is not an important nor even a semi-important. They also don't seem to hold any particular favor with any important house or enough small houses to make any real difference. I just can't see Varys doing just for the Hayfords.

I'm thinking Varys's plot might relate to all houses of the Crownlands. I've seen what I think might be hints that Bronn, the defacto ruler of House Stokeworth, is going to side with Aegon, and this could be important when Tyrion chooses sides. I also think the Rosby inheritance will be significant when it comes time to choose sides in the second Dance of the Dragons. 

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I haven't seen many suggest that. I've seen a lot of folks suggest Varys kidnapped him to turn him into a puppet ruler of the Westerlands. Didja read the OP? Didja see the stuff I laid out regarding the Blackfyre and House Hayford?  

Yeah, I saw that, but what we can guess about House Hayford from AFfC when Jaime visits the castle doesn't suggests they'll play a huge role. They are not that strong, after all. As a Crownlands house they won't need much convincing to join a Targaryen pretender (presumably the Targaryen pretender first arriving in their vicinity - which will be Aegon) and Tyrek - alive or dead - is not playing a role in that as a young boy whose marriage to his infant bride has not yet been consummated. Not to mention that he isn't exactly ruling Hayford right now, nor would he if Varys freed him due to his age.

There is a castellan in Hayford, and he'll decide what to do in the name of little Lady Ermesande.

The largely untapped forces of the Crownlands - Rosby, Stokeworth, Rykker, Hayford, etc. - could come into play when Aegon marches against KL. Most likely the Tyrells won't draft additional men from the Crownlands when they throw their men against the Golden Company.

If Bronn plays his cards well he could end up in Aegon's camp - but we don't know if he will. Perhaps he'll rather decide to join the Tyrells fearing repercussions from Cersei? We don't know yet. 

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I think Riverrun Red Wedding 2.0 will wipe out many members of House Lannister, which will give Varys perfect opportunity to install Tyrek as Lord of Casterly Rock. Jaime is going to be busy with Brotherhood without Banners and maybe even considered "dead", Cersei and Tommen have all kinds of problems in the capital, Myrcella is in Dorne and in the hands of Aegon's allies in Martells, Kevan is dead, Lancel became pious and probably will die at the hands of Robert Strong in Cersei's trial early in Winds.

The only viable obstacles in te line of succession standing in Tyrek's way of obtaining Casterly Rock would be Martyn and Janei, who even might attend Riverrun wedding and get slaughtered. Even if they are not there, they have no big significance, especially since their father Kevan is now dead. 

If Aegon and Jon Connington become succesful down south in rallying Stormlands, Dorne and majority of Reach banners (especially if Oldtown is saved from ironborn, and Hightowers bend the knee), high lords and soldiers of Westerlands will abandon King Tommen and Cersei regime (having been weakened in Riverlands guerilla fights and the capital) and agree to follow a Lannister lord supporting Aegon. And here comes Varys with Tyrek.

Considering how Tygett was always jealous of Tywin's successes, Varys might have used this to his advantage and brainwash and prepare a Lannister who is not so fond of his relatives of main line (Tywin's kids and grandkids) and sympathetic to prince Aegon's claim to Iron Throne.

Edited by Scorpion92

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Yeah, I saw that, but what we can guess about House Hayford from AFfC when Jaime visits the castle doesn't suggests they'll play a huge role. They are not that strong, after all. As a Crownlands house they won't need much convincing to join a Targaryen pretender (presumably the Targaryen pretender first arriving in their vicinity - which will be Aegon) and Tyrek - alive or dead - is not playing a role in that as a young boy whose marriage to his infant bride has not yet been consummated. Not to mention that he isn't exactly ruling Hayford right now, nor would he if Varys freed him due to his age.

There is a castellan in Hayford, and he'll decide what to do in the name of little Lady Ermesande.

The largely untapped forces of the Crownlands - Rosby, Stokeworth, Rykker, Hayford, etc. - could come into play when Aegon marches against KL. Most likely the Tyrells won't draft additional men from the Crownlands when they throw their men against the Golden Company.

If Bronn plays his cards well he could end up in Aegon's camp - but we don't know if he will. Perhaps he'll rather decide to join the Tyrells fearing repercussions from Cersei? We don't know yet. 

We don't know a lot of stuff, that's what makes looking for what might be veiled clues fun. 

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