Varys Orchestrated the Kidnapping of Tyrek to Use Him against House Lannister when the Time Was Right for Aegon to Assert His Claim

[WhitewolfStark]

I hold with the idea that Varys collected Tyrek. Whether he's banking on Tyrek being a puppet ruler of the Westerlands or like the OP mentions, a bargaining chip to get the Lannisters to accept Aegon as King, I think Varys is open to either option as he very clearly expects there to be a lot more war and deaths--especially considering he kills Kevan.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think Riverrun Red Wedding 2.0 will wipe out many members of House Lannister, which will give Varys perfect opportunity to install Tyrek as Lord of Casterly Rock. Jaime is going to be busy with Brotherhood without Banners and maybe even considered "dead", Cersei and Tommen have all kinds of problems in the capital, Myrcella is in Dorne and in the hands of Aegon's allies in Martells, Kevan is dead, Lancel became pious and probably will die at the hands of Robert Strong in Cersei's trial early in Winds.

The only viable obstacles in te line of succession standing in Tyrek's way of obtaining Casterly Rock would be Martyn and Janei, who even might attend Riverrun wedding and get slaughtered. Even if they are not there, they have no big significance, especially since their father Kevan is now dead. 

If Aegon and Jon Connington become succesful down south in rallying Stormlands, Dorne and majority of Reach banners (especially if Oldtown is saved from ironborn, and Hightowers bend the knee), high lords and soldiers of Westerlands will abandon King Tommen and Cersei regime (having been weakened in Riverlands guerilla fights and the capital) and agree to follow a Lannister lord supporting Aegon. And here comes Varys with Tyrek.

Considering how Tygett was always jealous of Tywin's successes, Varys might have used this to his advantage and brainwash and prepare a Lannister who is not so fond of his relatives of main line (Tywin's kids and grandkids) and sympathetic to prince Aegon's claim to Iron Throne.

I think your ideas are consistent with the prevailing view.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I hold with the idea that Varys collected Tyrek. Whether he's banking on Tyrek being a puppet ruler of the Westerlands or like the OP mentions, a bargaining chip to get the Lannisters to accept Aegon as King, I think Varys is open to either option as he very clearly expects there to be a lot more war and deaths--especially considering he kills Kevan.

Actually, I don't think he intended to use him as a bargaining chip. I think Varys planned to have Tyrek testify against Cersei for treasonous, incestuous adultery and regicide. 

[Good Guy Garlan]

Actually, I don't think he intended to use him as a bargaining chip. I think Varys planned to have Tyrek testify against Cersei for treasonous, incestuous adultery and regicide. 

But it'd be better for Varys if Cersei gets out scot free and continues to pave the way for Aegon with her stupidity, wouldn't it? If Varys needs someone to be declared guilty it's Margaery, but Tyrek is not useful in that regard, I think. 

I agree that Varys is a likely suspect, but the paranoid reader in me wonders if GRRM is misleading us by pretty much naming Varys as the culprit outright. 

One thing is certain, though: with the Lord of Hayford MIA, Bronn gathering sellswords, and the mysterious ward of Rosby lurking around, the Crownlands are getting more dangerous by the minute.

[Arrow of the Morning]

I wonder if Tyrek disappeared willing or was not kidnapped by Varys, but agreed in go away. He became a lord, but he was married with a baby and gained a very mean nickname. Like all squire he  dreamed to become a good knight and gain renown, but now no matter how good knight he will never be respected. He can be as good as his father was or have the same level as Jaime or Loras, but he will be known as Wetnurse. May be he vanished by himself, went to Essos and entered in a Free Company, where he can gain a reputation and identity that he wants.   

[The Fresh PtwP]

Tyrek, the kings own squire, goes on record for the Kingslaying. He name drops Cersei perhaps with some coaching even reveals the incest...that's pretty much the end of Lannister power right there.

Secrets are worth more than gold and are more dangerous than blades. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Tyrek, the kings own squire, goes on record for the Kingslaying. He name drops Cersei perhaps with some coaching even reveals the incest...that's pretty much the end of Lannister power right there.

Secrets are worth more than gold and are more dangerous than blades. 

Does Tyrek even know about the incest?

And Tyrek was not even present at the Hunt.

Ned had a bitter taste in his mouth. He recalled the two fair-haired boys Robert had sent chasing after a breastplate stretcher. The king had told everyone the tale that night at the feast, laughing until he shook. "Which squire?"

"The elder," said Ser Barristan. "Lancel."

 

So he is not much use in a trial and at the time of his disappearance was the 18th in line to the Rock.

 

[DasallmaechtigeJ]

IF Varys is really behind this and Tyrek did not simply end in the sewers with his throat slit, what you analyzed might have been Varys initial goal. I'm assuming he planned something similar with Tyrion, but since he is disowned he is pretty much useless now. If using Tyrek as leverage though was his plan, it has failed as well. With bt Tywin and Kevan dead, Lancel renouncing his rights and Cersei disgraced (and most likely not caring much), there is no Lannister in a position of power left that has a genuine need or concern for Tyrek to live. So even if he holds Tyrek somewhere, he will most likely dispose of him soon, if he hasn't already...

[The Fresh PtwP]

Does Tyrek even know about the incest?

And Tyrek was not even present at the Hunt.

Ned had a bitter taste in his mouth. He recalled the two fair-haired boys Robert had sent chasing after a breastplate stretcher. The king had told everyone the tale that night at the feast, laughing until he shook. "Which squire?"

"The elder," said Ser Barristan. "Lancel."

 

So he is not much use in a trial and at the time of his disappearance was the 18th in line to the Rock.

 

Power is where people believe it is. Varys knows of both the kingslaying and incest he would just tell Tyrek what to say. He's the kings squire (so he should know) and a Lannister (who people already suspect killed the king). It would add a hole heap of crap to the already towering amount Cersei is getting crushed by. 

It fits in with his recent Lannister hunting if his plan B is to seat Tyrek on CR. I don't think that is the main objective though. As you said he's way back of the line.

[Lost Melnibonean]

But it'd be better for Varys if Cersei gets out scot free and continues to pave the way for Aegon with her stupidity, wouldn't it? If Varys needs someone to be declared guilty it's Margaery, but Tyrek is not useful in that regard, I think. 

 

Margaery was not yet a widow at that point. Cersei was not yet running things. Tyrion was ruling competently (and keeping the brothers Baratheon at bay), and Tywin was waiting in the wings. Assuming Tywin would win the war and rule, Varys would need to prepare to undermine the legitimacy of the Lannister king. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

I wonder if Tyrek disappeared willing or was not kidnapped by Varys, but agreed in go away. He became a lord, but he was married with a baby and gained a very mean nickname. Like all squire he  dreamed to become a good knight and gain renown, but now no matter how good knight he will never be respected. He can be as good as his father was or have the same level as Jaime or Loras, but he will be known as Wetnurse. May be he vanished by himself, went to Essos and entered in a Free Company, where he can gain a reputation and identity that he wants.   

The son of a second son, he was given a lordship. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Does Tyrek even know about the incest?

And Tyrek was not even present at the Hunt.

Ned had a bitter taste in his mouth. He recalled the two fair-haired boys Robert had sent chasing after a breastplate stretcher. The king had told everyone the tale that night at the feast, laughing until he shook. "Which squire?"

"The elder," said Ser Barristan. "Lancel."

 

So he is not much use in a trial and at the time of his disappearance was the 18th in line to the Rock.

 

I agree that he probably does not know of the incest first hand, but Varys could surely coax out of him what he needs. And we have no text stating that he was or was not at the hunt, only that Lancel gave him the wine. I think we should assume the squire was with his king. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

IF Varys is really behind this and Tyrek did not simply end in the sewers with his throat slit, what you analyzed might have been Varys initial goal. I'm assuming he planned something similar with Tyrion, but since he is disowned he is pretty much useless now. If using Tyrek as leverage though was his plan, it has failed as well. With bt Tywin and Kevan dead, Lancel renouncing his rights and Cersei disgraced (and most likely not caring much), there is no Lannister in a position of power left that has a genuine need or concern for Tyrek to live. So even if he holds Tyrek somewhere, he will most likely dispose of him soon, if he hasn't already...

I did not mean to suggest that Tyrek is a hostage. I am suggesting he is a witness against Cersei. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Power is where people believe it is. Varys knows of both the kingslaying and incest he would just tell Tyrek what to say. He's the kings squire (so he should know) and a Lannister (who people already suspect killed the king). It would add a hole heap of crap to the already towering amount Cersei is getting crushed by. 

It fits in with his recent Lannister hunting if his plan B is to seat Tyrek on CR. I don't think that is the main objective though. As you said he's way back of the line.

Exactly!

[Lord Varys]

Tyrek could never have been a witness against Cersei in any legal court of law since in any such scenario a child of Cersei's would actually have sat the Iron Throne. Not to mention that Cersei would always have had the right to a trial-by-combat as she seems to be getting now, and after that the gods will officially have declared her innocent of all the charges, making it impossible to bring the whole thing up again.

But Tyrek could have been brought forth to publicly claim that Cersei's children are not Robert's and that she has conspired to murder him. Aegon's followers won't care what the gods had to say about Cersei's innocence. And Tyrek would have been in Varys' care for a long time. He'll do exactly what Varys wants him to do. As things stand now, Jaime might be the one who reveals the truth about his children to the public so Tyrek might not play an important role at all.

Then again, in the absence of Tyrion he could become Aegon's puppet as claimant to Casterly Rock. If Kevan's thoughts of Dorna are any indication she is not exactly fit or capable to fight for the claims of her children and while Cersei, Tommen, and Myrcella are still alive the Rock belongs to them, not the children of Kevan's.

More importantly, should Aegon actually capture Myrcella - either on her way to KL or after he has taken the city - he could claim Casterly Rock for himself as her husband and/or bestowing it on Tyrek as a reward or something like that. There will be some use for him, most likely.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Or perhaps marrying Tyrek to Myrcella. I mean if they have taken KL maybe it isn't much of a hardship for an accident to befall Ermesande. ( I doubt varys is above baby murder) Or indeed maybe they were never legally wed. 

If he marries Myrcella to her cousin he becomes lord of CR. and the WL are ruled by an Aegon friendly couple, Myrcella is after all influenced by the Martells who we presume will support Aegon also. 

Tyrek & Myrcella are 10 & 14, and have spent 3 yrs away from Lannister influence, seems an easy thing to manipulate Lord & Lady Lannister, once you've installed them at CR. All we need is the deaths of Cersei & Tommen and the Rock is hers, and by extension her husbands. The WL people may not be happy accepting an outsider as her Lord and Husband. But equally they'd doubtless prefer a male leader. Tyrek is a Male and a Lannister. 

 

[Lord Varys]

My guess about Myrcella is that she'll sort of suffer the fate of Jaehaera Targaryen. She'll be married to the new king, Aegon, to smooth things over in the beginning, but as soon as Aegon VI sits securely on the Iron Throne she'll have an accident, making the way free for Arianne Martell. Or not, perhaps they'll only use her as a hostage or not at all if the Golden Company does not capture her.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I think she'll die and it won't have been Varys's plan. I mean yes she is a valuable marriage pawn. But the best laid plans can go awry, and I think at least one child character will succumb to a good old fashioned winter chill. Or general virus type child death senslesness. That said I've often pondered her being poisoned by her own side in order to prevent her use as a bride. Her own mother being my prime suspect in that scenario. as we know how she resented that being her own fate. She may well feel it better than a forced bride. 

[Lord Varys]

I think she'll die and it won't have been Varys's plan. I mean yes she is a valuable marriage pawn. But the best laid plans can go awry, and I think at least one child character will succumb to a good old fashioned winter chill. Or general virus type child death senslesness. That said I've often pondered her being poisoned by her own side in order to prevent her use as a bride. Her own mother being my prime suspect in that scenario. as we know how she resented that being her own fate. She may well feel it better than a forced bride. 

Oh, people will succumb to illnesses and all, but not before Aegon sits the throne. He'll have to be cheered and all, remember? But once he has his throne he can become the false savior, the Stone King, the King Who Brought the Plague, or whatever George wants to do with the whole Greyscale thing.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Tyrek could never have been a witness against Cersei in any legal court of law since in any such scenario a child of Cersei's would actually have sat the Iron Throne. Not to mention that Cersei would always have had the right to a trial-by-combat as she seems to be getting now, and after that the gods will officially have declared her innocent of all the charges, making it impossible to bring the whole thing up again.

But Tyrek could have been brought forth to publicly claim that Cersei's children are not Robert's and that she has conspired to murder him. Aegon's followers won't care what the gods had to say about Cersei's innocence. And Tyrek would have been in Varys' care for a long time. He'll do exactly what Varys wants him to do. As things stand now, Jaime might be the one who reveals the truth about his children to the public so Tyrek might not play an important role at all.

Then again, in the absence of Tyrion he could become Aegon's puppet as claimant to Casterly Rock. If Kevan's thoughts of Dorna are any indication she is not exactly fit or capable to fight for the claims of her children and while Cersei, Tommen, and Myrcella are still alive the Rock belongs to them, not the children of Kevan's.

More importantly, should Aegon actually capture Myrcella - either on her way to KL or after he has taken the city - he could claim Casterly Rock for himself as her husband and/or bestowing it on Tyrek as a reward or something like that. There will be some use for him, most likely.

So, we pretty much agree as to the broad strokes.