Daemon Blackfyre won the Battle of Redgrass Field

[The Fiddler]

Prince Maekar, Prince Baelor, and Brynden Rivers are captured or killed and King Daeron II is taken into custody alongside the remainder of the royal family. What happens next? What would modern day Westeros be like with House Blackfyre at its helm, or would they have been deposed long ago?

[Lord Varys]

Well, first Daemon will have to kill all the Targaryens, of course, and then, a few years later, the Blackfyre dynasty rips itself and Westeros apart when one of Daemon's seven sons slays his father to steal the throne, causing a massive civil during which he is challenged by his brothers. The Blackfyre line would most likely die out two generations after Daemon Blackfyre.

[purple-eyes]

no sure about other things, but he will certainly conquer Dorne, kill prince maron, and take daenerys for himself as second wife. 

Then things become tricky. 

He had seven sons with rohanne, but since daenerys is quite young (22), so daemon would have a few more children from her. 

So after the death of Daemon, we will see a new dance between rohanne's children and daenyres's children because Dany's children would be from her royal line of Aegon IV and technically have some claim. 

Then most of them will die. And whoever left will be the next king. 

 

[Lion of the West]

Well, first Daemon will have to kill all the Targaryens, of course, and then, a few years later, the Blackfyre dynasty rips itself and Westeros apart when one of Daemon's seven sons slays his father to steal the throne, causing a massive civil during which he is challenged by his brothers. The Blackfyre line would most likely die out two generations after Daemon Blackfyre.

I don't think this is the more likely scenario. Could it happen just like it nearly happened to the Targaryens on at least two occassions due to Targaryen arrogance? Yes, but I think that it could just as likely be that after a chaotic initial period on the throne, the Blackfyre dynasty stabilize and goes on pretty much like the Targaryen dynasty did.

In fact just like Aegon and Robert had peaceful and calm reigns so would I expect Daemon to sit safely on his throne for the rest of his life. The real test would come when Daemon dies and his successor takes the throne. But given that Aegor would likely still have been alive, and most likely as dedicated to the Blackfyre cause, then I can totally see him aiding the new Blackfyre king to overcome those challenges.

Or it could become a a new War of Six Dragons after Daemon dies. That the dynasty would collapse before Daemon dies is however a notion that I feel I must reject in light of the examples from the history of Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

I don't think this is the more likely scenario. Could it happen just like it nearly happened to the Targaryens on at least two occassions due to Targaryen arrogance? Yes, but I think that it could just as likely be that after a chaotic initial period on the throne, the Blackfyre dynasty stabilize and goes on pretty much like the Targaryen dynasty did.

In fact just like Aegon and Robert had peaceful and calm reigns so would I expect Daemon to sit safely on his throne for the rest of his life. The real test would come when Daemon dies and his successor takes the throne. But given that Aegor would likely still have been alive, and most likely as dedicated to the Blackfyre cause, then I can totally see him aiding the new Blackfyre king to overcome those challenges.

Or it could become a a new War of Six Dragons after Daemon dies. That the dynasty would collapse before Daemon dies is however a notion that I feel I must reject in light of the examples from the history of Westeros.

Daemon has seven sons, and potentially an army of grandsons if he lives to old age. No Targaryen king ever had to deal with seven princes, nor was there ever a king whose immediate heirs were twin sons - I'm not sure that Aemon Blackfyre would have liked to see his brother Aegon on the throne just because he was (supposedly) a few minutes older...

More importantly, the Blackfyres could only seat securely on the throne if the Targaryens were all dead. That in itself would need an awful lot of butchery, inevitably undermining the Blackfyre cause. If Daddy Daemon can slay his half-brother, nephews, and grandnephews then Aenys or Haegon Blackfyre easily could consider it quite normal to slay their own brothers and father to gain the throne they covet, too. Just as Robert's example motivated Renly to try to claim the throne over the dead bodies of his brother's children.

Robert's victory did great damage to the kingship as an institution, just as Daemon's victory would have done. Daeron II was the crowned and anointed King of Westeros for twelve years. If a legitimized bastard can overthrow him, than pretty much everyone can (try to) overthrow Daemon, especially his own sons, possibly even Bittersteel (who may have thought a son by him and Calla may have made a fine king), but of course also the greater and smaller lords.

The Targaryen succession wars - Maegor vs. Aenys' sons, and the Dance - were much less controversial. Rhaenyra was the chosen and widely accepted heir of her father, and Maegor was the Conqueror's own son and the rider of the biggest dragon. Daemon Blackfyre was just a dude with a sword and a lot of fan boys - his claim would have been as good as Renly's.

[Lord Varys]

no sure about other things, but he will certainly conquer Dorne, kill prince maron, and take daenerys for himself as second wife.

If tried to do this, he would most likely not be around long enough to be killed by one of his own sons or other kin. He would die in Dorne, like all the Dragons (aside from Baelor) did.

[purple-eyes]

If tried to do this, he would most likely not be around long enough to be killed by one of his own sons or other kin. He would die in Dorne, like all the Dragons (aside from Baelor) did.

daemon is warrior reborn, plus most of his people are anti Dorne. 

I think he would have very big support and fulfil this. 

Sure, Dorne may rebell after he left, like daeron I. 

But he already claimed daenyres, so it is a done deal. 

[Lion of the West]

Daemon has seven sons, and potentially an army of grandsons if he lives to old age. No Targaryen king ever had to deal with seven princes, nor was there ever a king whose immediate heirs were twin sons - I'm not sure that Aemon Blackfyre would have liked to see his brother Aegon on the throne just because he was (supposedly) a few minutes older...

More importantly, the Blackfyres could only seat securely on the throne if the Targaryens were all dead. That in itself would need an awful lot of butchery, inevitably undermining the Blackfyre cause. If Daddy Daemon can slay his half-brother, nephews, and grandnephews then Aenys or Haegon Blackfyre easily could consider it quite normal to slay their own brothers and father to gain the throne they covet, too. Just as Robert's example motivated Renly to try to claim the throne over the dead bodies of his brother's children.

Robert's victory did great damage to the kingship as an institution, just as Daemon's victory would have done. Daeron II was the crowned and anointed King of Westeros for twelve years. If a legitimized bastard can overthrow him, than pretty much everyone can (try to) overthrow Daemon, especially his own sons, possibly even Bittersteel (who may have thought a son by him and Calla may have made a fine king), but of course also the greater and smaller lords.

The Targaryen succession wars - Maegor vs. Aenys' sons, and the Dance - were much less controversial. Rhaenyra was the chosen and widely accepted heir of her father, and Maegor was the Conqueror's own son and the rider of the biggest dragon. Daemon Blackfyre was just a dude with a sword and a lot of fan boys - his claim would have been as good as Renly's.

Its true that Daemon would have left a lot of heirs and that would have been problematic when he died. The number of princes however would to me seem to be a lesser issue then the twin sons. But so far I don't think that we know much about how unstable the Blackfyre House was. We only know that Aegon and Aemon bullied Daemon II, a bad trait to be sure, but nothing which says anything definite about their characters so we can't say for sure which way they would swing. Maybe they'd be very close and defend each other to death and beyond or maybe they would turn on each other? We don't know. yet, but I think that we shall have more information regarding this issue when either Bood and Fire is sent forth or, as I think, something like the Queen and the Princess for the Blackfyre Rebellion is released. But as far as we know there have only been two occassions of usurpation or attemtps of it within the Blackfyre line. Aenys tried to slip before Daemon III and Maelys killed his cousin Daemon. For the rest of it, it would seem like the Blackfyres held fairly strong to their House, and Maelys only happened after Bittersteel was no longer around to guide them anyway. So in this light and compared with the constant usurpations which plagued House Targaryen I don't see the vast difference between the two Houses. But given Aegor's dedication to House Blackfyre I find it very, very unconvincing that he would attempt to usurp them.

Its true that the death of the Targaryens would be necessary and here are two different scenarios. In one Daemon goes Rains of Castamere on them but in the other, he don't. Given his supposed chivalrous nature, like taking care of the blinded Corbray Kingsguard, I think that its actually very possible that Daemon simply exiles his Targaryen relatives to the Wall while marrying the women to his sons or supporters. And given Daemon's alleged nature I think odds are that he would not conduct a massacre although to be fair, I think that Bittersteel would talk him into killing at least Bloodraven.

If Blackfyre had won it would set a predecent, yes, but that predecent would have been that the sword Blackfyre was the definite symbol of kingship and not Dragonstone or something else. Men could, and likely would, have twisted this into what they wanted it to be but that's the nature of Westeros and it happens no matter what else.

In regards to the institution of kingship I don't see Daemon doing more harm than Aegon the Dragon did, although I agree that it would have been more unstable that the Targaryen reign for the purpose of there being less tradition behind the Blackfyres. But tradition is something that one can gain for oneself and for example the Tyrells have come from an even worse background yet still managed to hold on to the Reach and the Baratheons held the Stormlands. Thus I do not share you belief in that the Blackfyre dynasty would have been doomed by fate if they would take the Iron Throne.

While I agree that both Maegor and Rhaenyra had strong claims behind their usurpation ambitions, I think that you are maybe undervaluing the importance of Daemon being Aegon IV's son, the possession of Blackfyre and the royal legitimization. That's more than just a guy with a lot of fan boys. Renly for example never held Dragonstone, a position of great symbolic importance. Your namesake says that power lies where men belives it lies, thus the matter of symbolism should never be underestimated.

[HexMachina]

daemon is warrior reborn, plus most of his people are anti Dorne.

I think he would have very big support and fulfil this. 

Sure, Dorne may rebell after he left, like daeron I. 

But he already claimed daenyres, so it is a done deal. 

Most of his people who just died fighting Daeron II?

[purple-eyes]

Most of his people who just died fighting Daeron II?

most of daemon's supporters did not like the power of dornishmen in daeron's court. 

This is why his base is in reach. Daemon raised his banner in reach. 

Reach hated Dorne most. But daeron gave a lot of privileges to Dorne. 

So if daemon wanted to conquer Dorne, he would have. A lot of people support him. 

 

[Good Guy Garlan]

It would've been a messy succession, not only on the Targs' end, but regarding the other Houses. I imagine Daemon promised the Reynes, Peakes, Brackens, Sunderlands, Yronwoods, etc, the Paramount Lordship of their respective kingdoms, so he'd be dealing with some very angry Lannisters, Tyrells, Tullys, Arryns and Martells who refuse to back down. Aegon the Conqueror easily took and gave these titles however he pleased...because he had dragons. But look at how the dragonless Lannisters are doing in their efforts to give the North and Riverlands to the Boltons and Freys. They still haven't completely squashed the rebellion, and we're talking about just 2 kingdoms. Imagine trying to do the same thing with five. 

[HexMachina]

most of daemon's supporters did not like the power of dornishmen in daeron's court. 

This is why his base is in reach. Daemon raised his banner in reach. 

Reach hated Dorne most. But daeron gave a lot of privileges to Dorne. 

So if daemon wanted to conquer Dorne, he would have. A lot of people support him. 

 

A lot of dead people. Redgrass would be no easy win. People aren't going to be keen for another war following that.

[purple-eyes]

A lot of dead people. Redgrass would be no easy win. People aren't going to be keen for another war following that.

maybe wait for a few years. 

My point is, daemon would try to take daenerys back from Dorne. 

After all this is one of the reasons he rebelled. 

[HexMachina]

maybe wait for a few years. 

My point is, daemon would try to take daenerys back from Dorne. 

After all this is one of the reasons he rebelled. 

And why do you presume he would succeed? What makes him more likely to win as opposed to all those who attempted it beforehand?

[purple-eyes]

And why do you presume he would succeed? What makes him more likely to win as opposed to all those who attempted it beforehand?

he is supposed to be a warrior reborn and he had the whole kingdom in his back. 

If he can win the red grass and became the only winner for the throne in over 200 years, why not conquer Dorne? 

[Lord Varys]

[stuff]

I think the difference between the real history and our hypothetical scenario is that in the real scenario the Blackfyres never were 'real royalty' whereas in the scenario of Daemon's they would have been. Court life, being styled prince, and the trappings of real power does change you while shared hardships like exile bring you closer together - or at least can bring you closer together - as a family.

As things turned out, Bittersteel's only hope were his Blackfyre nephews because they were the sons of Daemon Blackfyre, the King Who Should Have Been, from the POV of the Blackfyre loyalists. But in a scenario in which Aegor is Daemon's Hand, married to Daemon's eldest daughter, and in a quite powerful Bloodraven-like position Daemon's seven sons easily could be perceived as obstacles rather than beloved nephews in his mind. Bloodraven never had legitimate issue so he never became a champion of his own children - but Bittersteel could have.

As to the number of Daemon's heirs: Jaehaerys I already had trouble choosing an heir and he had only three surviving sons. Daemon had seven. That is an insane amount of princes, and all would have vied with each other for the affection and attention of their royal father, trying to outshine each other in the process. Possibly (and especially) the twins.

And even in Blackfyre exile things aren't all shiny. Bittersteel effectively abandons Daemon the Younger to his fate, withholding his heirloom from him. Aenys Blackfyre doesn't give about his nephew's 'claim' (the self-proclaimed 'Daemon III'), and then there is the Daemon-Maelys thing. Perhaps some Blackfyre cousins and brothers actually were close to each other and cared for each other, but right now nothing suggests, for instance, that Haegon and Daemon were particularly close. Else Haegon would have been with Daemon in Whitewalls, or some other brother.

Daemon I would have had an awful lot of male Targaryens to get rid of - Daeron II, Baelor, Aerys, Rhaegel, Maekar, Valarr, Daeron, and possibly, at this point, also Matarys and Aerion. There was no Targaryen girl to marry to anyone besides the Targaryen-Penrose relations (Elaena's three daughters) and those wouldn't exactly have been fine matches.

Sending them all to the Wall would hardly have worked - and that would only have worked if they would have captured by unharmed by the Blackfyre loyalists (unlikely in my opinion - Daemon's guys would have sacked KL like Tywin later did, and the children and Daeron II there would have been butchered - and Mariah Martell would have been raped, most likely). Daemon himself was chivalric guy, no doubt about that, but he didn't have his eyes everywhere. And it would have been very risky to allow one of the more martial princes - Baelor and Maekar - to escape.

I really don't think Blackfyre was a very important point of the whole campaign. It was the token they used to justify the fact that Aegon supposedly wanted Daemon to be the next king, but the sword wasn't a token of kingship before or after (Daemon the Younger proved that, claiming the throne without even having Blackfyre). Daemon would have won a war, not shown the magic power of some sword, after all. And if he can win a war, so can other people.

The Conquest really is different because Aegon invades and personally subdues foreign monarchs. The other kings bent the knee and gave up their crowns of their own free will. Daemon was a subject standing up against his crowned and anointed monarch, a man he had obey and do homage to as anyone else in the Realm did. His rebellion was treason, and if it had been successful it would have been successful treason and set a very dangerous precedent. Even a more dangerous than Robert's success - Robert deposed a mad monarch, Daemon would have deposed a king who was known as 'the Good'...

It would've been a messy succession, not only on the Targs' end, but regarding the other Houses. I imagine Daemon promised the Reynes, Peakes, Brackens, Sunderlands, Yronwoods, etc, the Paramount Lordship of their respective kingdoms, so he'd be dealing with some very angry Lannisters, Tyrells, Tullys, Arryns and Martells who refuse to back down. Aegon the Conqueror easily took and gave these titles however he pleased...because he had dragons. But look at how the dragonless Lannisters are doing in their efforts to give the North and Riverlands to the Boltons and Freys. They still haven't completely squashed the rebellion, and we're talking about just 2 kingdoms. Imagine trying to do the same thing with five. 

That is another part of the story. We lack knowledge how the hell Daemon would have pacified the Realm after his victory. Only if all the male descendants of Daeron II (and he himself) would have been unquestionably dead would have the loyalist great houses (Lannister, Arryn, Tully, Baratheon, Martell, etc.) not have continued the war in their name (or risen in their name as soon as the true heirs/king had returned from across the water.

But Daemon would certainly have been forced to reward his loyal (and most powerful) followers, which could easily have led to (attempted) changes among the great houses, leading to the dispossession of the Lannisters, Tullys, Tyrells, Martells, Arryns, possibly even the Baratheons.

This could easily have cut his reign short before it even began. Anyone trying to lay siege to Casterly Rock would have been insane, let alone to multiple comparable seats. Even back during the Dance Corlys Velaryon urged Rhaenyra not to eradicate the Lannisters and Baratheons because that is going to cause massive problems - and that was the dragon age. Daemon would have had a very hard time to pay up his followers, and that, in turn, could easily have eroded his power base as soon as the people following him realized that they would not get what they wanted/he had promised them.

[HexMachina]

he is supposed to be a warrior reborn and he had the whole kingdom in his back.

If he can win the red grass and became the only winner for the throne in over 200 years, why not conquer Dorne? 

No he doesn't. You think all the Red Dragon supporters are suddenly loyal to him? He'd be foolish to rely on their support.

Uh, the onus ought to be on you to show why he could conquer Dorne, since it was a nigh on impossible task beforehand.

and being the "warrior reborn" means squat, except he was good with a sword. He can be as good with a sword as he likes, in the grand scheme of things it means little

[purple-eyes]

No he doesn't. You think all the Red Dragon supporters are suddenly loyal to him? He'd be foolish to rely on their support.

Uh, the onus ought to be on you to show why he could conquer Dorne, since it was a nigh on impossible task beforehand.

and being the "warrior reborn" means squat, except he was good with a sword. He can be as good with a sword as he likes, in the grand scheme of things it means little

if love can make jorah and rhaegar win the tourney, maybe love can also make daemon conquer Dorne? 

[HexMachina]

if love can make jorah and rhaegar win the tourney, maybe love can also make daemon conquer Dorne? 

uh, no. Completely different. One is people being spurred on to push themselves to the limits to win a jousting contest. The other is, well, ridiculous.

[The Fiddler]

uh, no. Completely different. One is people being spurred on to push themselves to the limits to win a jousting contest. The other is, well, ridiculous.

A Dorne divided, though? The Conqueror and the Young Dragon fought against a region united, but with at least the Yronwoods on the Black Dragon's side it could potentially be much easier.