Survivor: Kaôh Regōng Trail

[Howdyphillip]

3 hours ago, Scrambled Aegon said:

Best episode in a couple weeks. Tai's a great character, I'm gonna be happy with the Michele win, four great contestants in the finale with a boot ep that made our 5th placer better than he had been too

It was a horrible episode tonight, but it did set us up for a fantastic finale.

[Kyoshi]

I think the med evacuation saved Cydney.  That's if she didn't win immunity. 

I also didn't like the episode. I think if they had an immunity challenge and the aftermath of that, it would have been better, even if they didn't have a tribal council.

[dbunting]

I didn't care for the episode either, seemed off.

Tai - You are still in it fella, keep chugging along. I don't see how he can win but I'm still rooting for you.

Cydney - Joe's love of beef saved you or Michelle tonight. Aubry clearly recognized she messed up and underestimated you. I really think she needs Tai and Aubry with her at the end.

MIchelle - See above! If Cydney had won immunity you were gone. Now, you have a good chance to win it all.

Aubry - can you get there from here? I think she loses to MIchelle and/or Cydney unless one of them blows up at TC and turns the jury off.

Joe - we hardly knew you and all we know you for is being bossy about the fire and your strange beef gorging. I didn't ever for a minute see him winning that challenge until about half way through and it was like damn, he can do this.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

I think med evac saved Michelle . She was the person Tai and Joe(didn't see him having much of a say ) would have wanted gone and i don't think Aubry would have fought hard for that . In hindsight voting out Jason last week was so much better than Michelle for the remaining players.

I am excited for the finale,  only 1 person i would not want to win is currently in the game .  Probably most happy if Cydney wins it .

[Kyoshi]

^I also think I'm happiest if Cydney wins it. She's really risen above the rest for me. It hasn't been a perfect game, but it comes close for me. I just realised that along with Aubry, she's the only person who's voted for the person who went home (after the merge. I haven't checked the pre merge). And in each of the decisions she wasn't simply told what to do. @D-Bunting would have something to say about that.  but I personally respect the way Julia and Cydney were in control of their fate. Most younger girls tend to play like Michele and it's not a game I find compelling in any way. That's how we end up with Natalie Terenelli and the like. You get people who get dragged to the end. Makes it look like it a wasted spot.

Also, I think Aubry had successfully talked Tai back into her good graces. While on reward, she "suddenly realised" Cydney was a threat. I'm not sure I believe she realised it just then but it makes more sense to get rid of Cydney than the others. Aubry definitely had Joe in her pocket. All she needed was Tai and Cydney was gone. I don't think she respects Michele's game enough to actually see her as a threat (she talked a whole lot about respecting Julia, but never Michele). And I'm thinking Tai is more likely to go with Aubry's plan than Michele's.

[Criston of House Shapper]

This was probably not the most exciting episode, but nevertheless an interesting one with a lot of character-stuff. Aubry still looks like the front-runner to me, she's getting the winner's edit and will fulfill her destiny next week. I'm guessing it's either an Aubry-Michele final 2 or an Aubry-Michele-Tai final 3. I don't see a lot of people voting for Michele because she kind of didn't do a whole lot and Tai will probably not do well in front of a jury. Cydney is seen as the biggest threat and will probably be voted out next.

It's kind of sad that this Joe is the Joe that doesn't suck.

[Scrambled Aegon]

19 hours ago, Kyoshi said:

Most younger girls tend to play like Michele and it's not a game I find compelling in any way. That's how we end up with Natalie Terenelli and the like. You get people who get dragged to the end.

Michele hasn't been dragged and there's no comparison between her and Nat T. Nat T wasn't thinking about anything, shown by that horrid FTC where she couldn't even answer a question without staring at Rob for approval and times she went against her own interests in the game just to further his. Michele has clearly been thinking about her own game and making the choices she thinks benefit herself. Those thoughts and choices have led to a quieter approach, but being quiet doesn't make her Nat T.

 

More episode thoughts later but my finale prediction is Cydney's voted out in 4th, Aubry's voted out in 3rd (I hope it's Tai winning FIC and choosing between Michele/Aubry but it's probably simpler if it's just Michele), and Michele beats Tai in the jury vote.

 

Aubry's edit is much more consistent with endgame losers' and Michele's with winners', and Michele/Tai has been established in the narrative as a duo more than any other pair still in the game.

[Kyoshi]

^my main issue with Michele's game is that it's never in her hands. She talks a lot about doing stuff but without actually doing anything. And mostly, what she says isn't really groundbreaking or specific. What I mean is, Michele will say something like, "I work a lot with people and you need to be friendly in order for them to trust you." Anyone can say that. It's all general stuff that everyone knows. And everyone in the game has been saying it. She reminds me of a politician who, when asked a question, will say, "thank you for asking that question. That's actually a very important issue and we need to tackle that soon and efficiently..." But without specifically saying WHAT needs to be done. 

I think if I saw her relating her confessionals to how she's building different relationships with different people I would sort of see how she gained control, instead of going with the flow of the majority. 

I saw Cydney moving the vote to Nick. I saw her saving Michele 2 episodes ago.  I saw Aubry moving Tai and Joe around. Even Jason and Scott were visible in how they were trying to define themselves. Even when these people aren't making "big moves" I can see how THEIR decisions and not someone else's shaped the game. I can't say the same about Michele. Even with Julia, Michele's vote didn't really count in the end so I don't see that as some grand display of agency. Everyone was already going that way and there was no point in staging a rebellion.

She hasn't been perceptive, either. The Debbie vote was especially revealing, IMHO. Michele gets told things. In my opinion, the others go out of their way to see where everyone stands in the game and how everyone else is interacting with one another. They then use that to shape the outcome at TC. For example, Aubry was able to tap into Tai's "chemistry" and therefore his vote. Cydney is usually the first to see when people are shifting alliances. Michele didn't even realise Julia was a double agent. If she did, it's not something that was shown. She's relied very heavily on someone else doing the legwork and then getting told whom to vote for. Even Julia tried, though ineffectively, to do the whole double agent thing. Michele, the way I saw it, waited for Cydney and Aubry to tell her what to do. She's like Joe for me--her vote belongs to someone else. But unlike Joe, she makes to the final episode so we get to see her taking about being a bartender and enjoying a massage. I haven't seen Michele thinking and executing actual plans.

She had the woman alliance that went nowhere. And I honestly think they hammered on that because we were supposed to view the Julia vote as a huge deal.

She doesn't seem in control; if she was while they were on location, then it's not something the editors have conveyed well. If she does win then so be it. I can't take that from her. But in my opinion, she's been the weakest if the bunch for a long while now.

Also, I didn't watch the Neal med evacuation episode so maybe I'm missing some information. But from what I've seen, Michele hasn't shaped anything, not a single vote.

[Gertrude]

Out of all four left, only Michelle would feel like an unsatisfying win for me. I agree with Kyoshi - Michelle is perfectly generic and following where she needs to be. I get that, and I don't disrespect that strategy, but we don't see her talking about it really. In the episode that Julia got voted out, I don't think she even really talked about it in her confessionals (if I remember correctly). That would have been something that could have showcased her actual gameplay rather than just giving generic comments.

My parents can't even remember her name at this point. She's 'that girl in the yellow bikini'. I have no idea what her personality is like. Cydney, Aubrey and Tai are well drawn and distinctive. Michelle looks good in a bikini and doesn't need to be carried, bro. I know this because she told me, not because I am seeing it in the edit. Aegon, I am surprised that you are all in on Michelle. You're the one who is always talking about the character and stories the seasons are telling, and as far as I can tell, Michelle has no story. She has a weird edit that people can't dismiss and so they are reading it as a winning edit. Maybe I will eat my words, but I will never agree that Michelle has had a compelling, or even mildly interesting story. Maybe I need to watch Marquesas again, but I think even V had seeds of how she won sprinkled into her narrative in a more convincing manner.

[Howdyphillip]

 So, I am doing my rewatch before the season finale this week, and I finally figured out what it is about Cydney that took my ability to root for her is. In episode four, she was one of the people who went down in the brutal heat. While she was out, Jason really took care of her and then announced that she was someone he would stick by both in that kind of situation and in the game. 

 I do not like Jason, but he was essentially there for her in a potentially life threatening situation, and it was genuine. I know it is irrational of me, and I know that they are playing a game, but it just rubs me the wrong way that she turned on him after this. I am glad she did as it made it a much more interesting game, but it also leaves me not pulling for someone I would otherwise been thrilled to root for.

 

 

[Scrambled Aegon]

@Kyoshi Reasonable points and I appreciate the amount of detail you went into, but I will say that generally I don't think shaping things and having agency in votes has as much intrinsic value as it seems you do. If Michele sitting quietly is keeping her around over people who have otherwise been doing more to move things around, good on her.

 

8 hours ago, Gertrude said:

Aegon, I am surprised that you are all in on Michelle. You're the one who is always talking about the character and stories the seasons are telling, and as far as I can tell, Michelle has no story. She has a weird edit that people can't dismiss and so they are reading it as a winning edit. Maybe I will eat my words, but I will never agree that Michelle has had a compelling, or even mildly interesting story. Maybe I need to watch Marquesas again, but I think even V had seeds of how she won sprinkled into her narrative in a more convincing manner.

Michele isn't my favorite by any means, FWIW. Depending on how the finale shakes out my cast ranking could change, but tentatively I feel confident that Tai, Jenny, Alecia, Scot, Jason, and Aubry will all rank above her for me as characters, maybe Peter and Cydney too. But who I'm the most interested in and who I think wins aren't the same thing. Would have loved to see Jaclyn win SJDS or Dawn win Caramoan but I could still figure those weren't happening.

 

~~

 

As to why I think she wins... First off the level of focus she's gotten feels really disproportionate if she doesn't win. I don't think she's most viewers' favorite contestant left and certainly nobody would argue she makes the most dynamic TV - yet she's received 45 confessionals, more even than Cydney, and as far as winners go, it's more on average per episode than Jeremy, Natalie A, Tyson, Denise, Sophie, and Fabio from the last 10 seasons alone. Not much of a surprise to see her above Sophie I guess, but she's been in some respects as visible even as big alpha males like Jeremy and Tyson - despite being not only a less dynamic player but also the exact demographic that tends to get ignored. And of course I already went into how the level of focus she got in the pre-merge (through which point she got more confessionals than either Aubry or Cydney) is huge for her demographic and total irrelevance to the game at that point. They were giving her more attention than Aubry or Cydney even though she hadn't gone to one TC.

 

But of course edit analysis isn't just about how much air time someone gets but rather what they do with that air time. As far as "what they do with that air time" goes, Michele has gotten a ton of stuff that's very consistent with winners: her great opening confessional, unnecessary narration, and particularly an unnecessary amount of focus on her explanations for her actions. She got a whole scene justifying her loss in a Reward Challenge of all things and spinning it into a positive for her game. We've been explicitly told that she'd beat most other contestants in a jury vote. She's been consistent in describing her plans of laying low and keeping avenues open - which maybe is common sense as Kyoshi says, but if it's so common, why reinforce constantly that this one as-yet inconsequential player is doing it? She got to explain a Julia vote that didn't affect anything at the start of the next episode, when things don't go her way she gets to immediately talk about how she's going to keep looking for a path out. All of these are absolutely key things and big flags for a winner based on previous seasons - as is the overall trend of giving her a consistent degree of focus and a strong degree of focus when she doesn't have any reason to be focused upon.

 

Editing analysis is at least as useful for picking out who doesn't win as for who does, though, so looking at Michele's opponents... Tai clearly is out of the running, constant talk of how he's burned jurors and constant scenes that make him look worse than necessary and 3 explicit statements of "A woman must win this season!" combined with a general running theme of female empowerment ("I don't need to be carried, bro"; the women making fire after Scot puts it out... both of which were narrated by Michele, incidentally.)

 

Aubry seems to be the consensus pick for an alternative to Michele but I think she has the most clear red flags against her:

 

- Aubry talked early on about the Brain tribe being a mess, including herself, and I am pretty sure we have never had a "This tribe is bad at Survivor!" commenter win. If we are meant to be reasonably satisfied with the winner, that winner insulting their own team and themselves simultaneously is not something we can expect to see.

 

- Her edit was very spotty in the first few episodes, where most winners have a very consistent focus. Aubry got a big premiere, then she absolutely disappeared, then she, like, half-returned. As shown by Natalie White, three episodes where you're at like a 1/10 in terms of relevance is probably better than going from 8/10 to 0/10 to 4/10. When Aubry's level of focus can jump around so erratically, that tells me that Aubry isn't someone we're supposed to be inherently invested in the way we're supposed to be inherently invested in the winner; it tells me we're supposed to be invested in her when she's directly relevant to other stories or saying something interesting. Michele, on the other hand, they clearly want us to be invested in even when she is irrelevant to other stories and not saying anything interesting.

 

- And within that inconsistent focus, she was portrayed a lot less positively than she could have been. Even including her breakdown as a premiere moment is suspect to begin with, because a LOT of viewers react incredibly negatively to that sort of thing ("Why is she there if she can't even handle one day on Survivor???") I could see it as a good thing for her if they had portrayed it particularly positively, though - but I don't know whether it was really portrayed positively at all. Even in the episode, we saw two of her allies saying that it makes her an unstable concern of a player, and this was reiterated in later episodes where Joe suggested that her strategy wasn't calculated but as a result of "neuroses." That is going out of their way in the premiere - our first impression of her - to portray her as more unstable than they need to portray her as being, and then reiterating it in a later episode.

 

- The Previously On segments, which are very valuable as they're where a producer literally tells us what he wants the story of the season to be, have not been kind to Aubry. One talked about things going "From bad to WORSE" for her alliance - not saying they had something to overcome, but just talking about how poorly they were doing. More concerning, one Previously On segment specifically called Aubry "SO indecisive!". That moment right there is the #1 strike against Aubry for me. They didn't need to mention her "~~Julia~~ Peter" vote in the recap at all, and if they did, they could have mentioned it neutrally. Instead, they went out of their way to make us think Aubry is indecisive.

 

Any one of these on its own would be a bigger strike against Aubry than there is against Michele.

 

Re: Cydney, the main thing that gets me with Cydney is just no consistent story up to this point. The most sold I ever was on Cydney as a prospective winner was where she got that fantastic scene with Debbie where we're told about Cydney's educational background and how she's as brainy as she is brawny. Fantastic scene... and then we never got anything like it again, that I can recall. Certainly very little of it. There is no running theme of "Cydney is smarter than she looks!" - which they clearly have the material for - or really any running theme about why or how she's a strong or respectable player whatsoever. Michele absolutely has a clear running theme, with a bunch of confessionals about how she plays a quiet and subtle game built around social relationships and pacing. We have heard this from her in a bunch of episodes.

 

If Cydney were to win the season, I'd have a hard time pegging what exactly her overall playing style was. With Michele, I can recall it incredibly easily, because it has been given to us over and over. Additionally, for the past few episodes, most if not all commentary by other players on Cydney has been negative. Yeah, it's often been negative from our seasonal bad guys - but those bad guys have just become jurors, and we have not gotten positive SPV from others to offset it. And iirc we now had Joe outright saying she isn't a threat - which could be good for her as "underestimated" if it were juxtaposed with reasons why she were a threat (as seen in the Nick/Michele scene earlier), but it hasn't been. Michele, on the other hand, has been named as someone with no enemies and specifically someone who would win a jury vote.

 

~~

 

That's most of my argument as to why I think she wins (though there are other odds and ends I could add, too.) Yes, Cydney and Aubry have typically been portrayed as reasonably competent players, and even as more dynamic and influential ones than Michele. But the fact is that they have red flags in those edits that Michele doesn't, Michele has distinct signs pointing to her in line with previous seasons that Cydney and Aubry don't have, and they have taken pains to make us remember Michele exists. Now maybe making us remember she exists is just because they realized that seasons are better when we care about everyone going into the end... but considering that that hasn't been a focus for them in reason years, there's a simpler explanation - and that still wouldn't explain why Michele is not just present but has an edit that's outright more typical of a modern Survivor winner than Cydney's or Aubry's.

 

~~

 

Most recent episode thoughts.. I thought the Joevac would be a bit of an anti-climax, especially with what a weird reason it was for him to go out, but ultimately I liked it because they really dialed the emotion up to 11 and sold it as a moment. Wish we'd gotten more of this positive "getting it done at 71" stuff for Joe earlier in the season, but I'm still happy we got it now, at least. I really liked everything going on there - and I loved the Michele/Tai scene. Even if the Next Time On segment hinted at it, based just on the episodes themselves, it was still an epic twist to see them seemingly team up. And with how mean-spirited and dishonest this game often is, seeing them form what could be the great alliance of the endgame by just letting their guards down and communicating as open human beings was simply fantastic. Tai is an excellent contestant - solidified by his next scene where he broke down with Aubry.

 

I don't know to what extent I was rooting for or against any particular outcome before this, but after that ep, I'm definitely rooting for a Taichele F2 with Michele winning. What I'd especially love is to see Tai win FIC and be torn between Michele and Aubry, take Michele because he thinks it's the better game move even if it's dishonest, then he gets ripped apart by the jury for yet another instance of dishonest betrayal. That would be a brutal finale and really solidify him as one of the all-time greatest characters in Survivor history. He's already relatively close.

 

Whoever wins FIC, though, that's definitely the final two I'm rooting for because I love how it's been set up, if it is the final two: they only teamed up this late in the game - but the scene of them teaming up was the culmination of everything we've been told about either of them as a player up to this point, going back to the beginning of the season... and speaking of that beginning, we got Michele speaking positively of Tai in the very first episode as a seemingly throwaway confessional that would now have a lot more meaning. They've been setting up the pieces for that final two all season but it's only in this penultimate episode that the picture starts to reveal itself. I think it would be a lot more rewarding than any other F2 - and likewise, because it's been set up more, I think it's the most likely. Aubry as 3rd placer also makes sense and is a deliciously bitter outcome with how much she's overcome. I think that'd be the most satisfying outcome all-around (and is the most likely for that same reason.) We'll see what happens on Wednesday.

 

If it is a final three I think Aubry gets voted out and Cydney loses, as the show has given us reasons why Cydney might lose and her edit doesn't have as many direct red flags as Aubry's so much as the good-but-not-great, inconsistent quality of other recent FTC losers.

[Gertrude]

It's amazing to me that Michelle has had that many confessionals because they just don't stick. Like I said, I might be eating my words here, but I'm not feeling it. I'm still thinking Aubrey wins it. She has been shown to be competitive in different challenges and if she or Tai wins it, I wouldn't be surprised to see them willing to go to rocks. (perhaps, perhaps not, but I can see Cyd and Aubrey going to loggerheads over this, Tai siding with Aubrey having an idol around his neck and Michelle saving herself). Tai and Cyd have more red flags, yes, but I also don't see them as completely out of it. Probably Tai more out of it than Cyd.

[Raja]

I'll be quite disappointed if Michele won, I don't really think she's played the game as well as any of the others that are left in the game. Also, agreed with both Kyoshi and Gertrude, she's such a blank person. I feel like I don't know her at all, and it's been that way since the start of the season. Heck, I think Julia's probably a more deserving winner than Michelle. Totally okay with Cydney, Aubry or Tai winning it, I feel like they've all stepped up at different times of the game. 

[Kyoshi]

Cydney turning against Scot and Jason was a good thing in my eyes. I personally think her demographic [young female] generally has a harder time earning respect than any other on Survivor. I think that with Jason and Scott, Cydney was in a Natalie Terenelli/Tasha situation. I realise Tasha is more mature but because she attached her game to Jeremy's so much, people just sort of saw HIM and not HER as the person making the decisions in that situation. So I guess Jaclyn might be a better person to compare her to.

If Cydney doesn't "backstab" Jason and goes all the way to the end, I don't think it would be easy for people to credit her with her own game. It would be easy to perceive her as THEIR henchwoman (which is what I think happened to Tasha). In a final TC where Cydney sits next to Jason and Scot, I don't see how she wins; mostly because she'll be seen as either a henchman or someone who was carried there.

In general, IMHO, we're socialised to normalise situations in which the guy makes the decisions and does all the rational thinking. That's what we saw with Jaclyn and Jon. Even when she was clearly the more savvy player we were shown the entire things as somehow relative to Jon and HIS game. Even Jon himself seemed to expect Jaclyn to simply rollover and let him win. The Joe/Aubry situation is something quite unique, I think. So I personally think young women are more likely to win if sitting next to another woman in the end, or if sitting next to a young man. (I'll have to actually check the stats for that, but if I were a young woman that's how I'd play. I'd want another of my kind at the end).

Also, those 2 guys were just jerks all around. Anyone who backstabs them is an angel in my eyes. Yeah sure he was nice to her, but the way he treated Alecia washed all of that out for me. That was a whole lot of bullcrap that wasn't necessary.

________

On Michele and control: the reason being perceptive and in control are important to me is that I need to know the winner was actually aware. I know there's a lot of luck with Survivor. I just don't believe the luck should extend to the point where the winner had NO idea what was happening. Even with Natalie White I could see how she swayed people to her side. I saw her working on the Galu(?) women and swayed them to vote with Foa Foa. And I saw her connecting with people through her religion. She didn't simply tell me that she didn't need to be carried, bro. I saw her carry herself.

[Criston of House Shapper]

On 15.5.2016 at 6:09 AM, Scrambled Aegon said:

As to why I think she wins... First off the level of focus she's gotten feels really disproportionate if she doesn't win. I don't think she's most viewers' favorite contestant left and certainly nobody would argue she makes the most dynamic TV - yet she's received 45 confessionals, more even than Cydney, and as far as winners go, it's more on average per episode than Jeremy, Natalie A, Tyson, Denise, Sophie, and Fabio from the last 10 seasons alone. Not much of a surprise to see her above Sophie I guess, but she's been in some respects as visible even as big alpha males like Jeremy and Tyson - despite being not only a less dynamic player but also the exact demographic that tends to get ignored. And of course I already went into how the level of focus she got in the pre-merge (through which point she got more confessionals than either Aubry or Cydney) is huge for her demographic and total irrelevance to the game at that point. They were giving her more attention than Aubry or Cydney even though she hadn't gone to one TC.

She's received 45 confessionals, and I remember exactly 1 of them. If she wins, which I don't see happening, she would be the most boring winner ever, even more so than Natalie White or Danni. And in the confessional I do remember, she comes across as kind of whiny and defensive.

It would be interesting to plot the amount of confessionals of runner-ups, and compare Michele's number to that. Or other losers. I think the winner is rarely the person with the most confessionals about some boring rewards or some other uninteresting situations where you could get anyone else's take on it. In my opinion she is more consistent with loosing finalists like Spencer/Jaclyn/Wooooo/Dawn/both Lisa and Skupin/Coach and so on, who are set up as compelling opponents to the actual winner, so the FTC isn't as boring. But with those people I mentioned, the story was just a little off, where you don't really buy them as actual winners, but you can kind of feel that they are getting a finalist-edit. I'm pretty sure that's what happens with Michele.

My biggest problem with Michele are the two episodes right after the merge, where she dropped off the face of the planet, even though she helped blindside her former tribemate and potential ally. She was basically reduced to Cydney's extra-vote. The merge episode is typically one of the most crucial episodes of the entire season both in terms of editing and strategically, and her absence in those is a big knock against her.

 

Edit: One more thing: I think the reward scene set up a power struggle between Aubry and Cydney, that is supposed to show us that one of them wins by beating the other (probably one of them votes the other one out). So I give Aubry about an 85% chance of winning, and Cydney a 15% chance.

Also, I don't think it is certain that it will be a final 2, I could see the Philippines/China/Australia/Panama/Caramoan-thing where they do a reward challange and an immunity challange and that's it. Maybe if the finale isn't so bloated this time we might get more FTC than in the last couple of seasons.

[Scrambled Aegon]

1 hour ago, Criston of House Shapper said:

She's received 45 confessionals, and I remember exactly 1 of them. If she wins, which I don't see happening, she would be the most boring winner ever, even more so than Natalie White or Danni. And in the confessional I do remember, she comes across as kind of whiny and defensive.

I disagree that Natalie White is anywhere near the most boring winner. I'd give that to JT, Yul, maybe Kim/Rob/Todd. Either way, not saying she was or wasn't boring. That's completely irrelevant to whether she wins. 

 

1 hour ago, Criston of House Shapper said:

I think the winner is rarely the person with the most confessionals about some boring rewards or some other uninteresting situations where you could get anyone else's take on it.

Actually, if they keep going to one person where they could go to anybody else, that to me is a very strong sign that we should pay attention to that person.

 

1 hour ago, Criston of House Shapper said:

Spencer/Jaclyn/Wooooo/Dawn/both Lisa and Skupin/Coach and so on, who are set up as compelling opponents to the actual winner, so the FTC isn't as boring. But with those people I mentioned, the story was just a little off, where you don't really buy them as actual winners, but you can kind of feel that they are getting a finalist-edit. I'm pretty sure that's what happens with Michele.

Disagree for many of the reasons outlined before and some others. Aubry's edit is 100% in line with those of Dawn and Lisa: the player who cries over very little and has a tough time playing Survivor, but manages to overcome that and have a solid strategy to justify going far (either by enacting this strategy even while being emotional, as in the case of Dawn, or being less emotional as the game goes on, as in the case of Holly [which then also fits into the pattern of a "growth arc" of a player who is shown as growing somehow throughout the game, like Spencer] - or both, in the case of Aubry) - but not solid enough to win compared to those who have been portrayed as totally competent from the beginning. We get emotional struggle/growth arc characters like Aubry often, and they often go to the end. They have not won. There are many modern contestants who go far and lose with comparable edits and stories to Aubry's, but no winners. I have a hard time thinking of modern contestants who go far and lose with comparable edits to Michele's, but it contains patterns common among winners.

 

Jaclyn again is more comparable to Aubry. The biggest selling points against Jaclyn were her incredibly quiet start to the season and her portrayal in the edit as an excessively emotional player.

 

I don't see any comparisons to Woo or Skupin with anyone in this cast. Skupin's problem was that after the premiere he was literally ignored for the pre-merge other than the occasional negative commentary from others, and nobody here has an edit like that. Woo was basically an utter prop sitting in the background and again no real comparison here to that.

If anything, both of their losses were set up by them taking people to the end who had been directly named as bigger jury threats. And who's been directly named as the big jury threat this season? Michele.

 

I don't see any comparisons to Coach with pretty much anyone else in the show's history because he's the weird real-life Michael Scott who thinks he can form seven billion alliances and take them all to FTC, and with him I feel like we basically got an individual and complex depiction of him where his loss was justified not based on particular editing trends but based on a clear cause/effect thing.

2 hours ago, Criston of House Shapper said:

My biggest problem with Michele are the two episodes right after the merge, where she dropped off the face of the planet, even though she helped blindside her former tribemate and potential ally. She was basically reduced to Cydney's extra-vote. The merge episode is typically one of the most crucial episodes of the entire season both in terms of editing and strategically, and her absence in those is a big knock against her.

Not accurate; Michele got as many confessionals in the two merge episodes as Cydney did. The most recent player who did abruptly drop off the face of the planet in a pair of merge episodes was Natalie A, who won. I agree that her relative lack of strategic agency in the edit is the biggest red flag for her, but I don't think it's as big a red flag as any that exists for Aubry or outweighs all the positives she has over Cydney.

I could see a final three where she beats Tai and Cydney. But I hope for a final two.

[Criston of House Shapper]

14 minutes ago, Scrambled Aegon said:

We get emotional struggle/growth arc characters like Aubry often, and they often go to the end. They have not won.

I would argue that Natalie Anderson kind of struggled emotionally at times, as did other winners. We often see winners cry on at least one occasion. In fact, I'm not sure who was the last winner that never cried throughout the season. Probably Cochran or Kim? Everyone since then has had an emotional moment at some point, Michele on the other hand has been very unemotional, which is probably why I find her to be so incredibly bland. Aubry has cried, therefore she wins. 

I don't think Aubry necessarily got a growth arc, she struggled for about five minutes in the premier and has been fine since then. Her story is more of the underdog who overcomes the odds and wins in the end despite being dealt a bad hand.

I guess I just don't analyse this stuff excessively and instead go with how the show makes me feel about a certain person and I don't think we're supposed to care much about Michele. I don't think there is one distinct winner's-edit that is always the exact same way every single season, otherwise this show would've been cancelled long ago. If someone got a lot of confessionals about nothing, I'm not going to register any of it.

My comparisons with other losing finalists weren't supposed to mean that they're all exactly the same, but similar in that the editors tried to make us believe that a certain person would win, in order to create a compelling opponent for the actual winner. I do think there is something like a "finalist-edit".

Anyway, I guess we'll see on Wednesday, or Thursday for me.

[Howdyphillip]

On 5/15/2016 at 1:06 PM, Kyoshi said:

Cydney turning against Scot and Jason was a good thing in my eyes. I personally think her demographic [young female] generally has a harder time earning respect than any other on Survivor. I think that with Jason and Scott, Cydney was in a Natalie Terenelli/Tasha situation. I realise Tasha is more mature but because she attached her game to Jeremy's so much, people just sort of saw HIM and not HER as the person making the decisions in that situation. So I guess Jaclyn might be a better person to compare her to.

If Cydney doesn't "backstab" Jason and goes all the way to the end, I don't think it would be easy for people to credit her with her own game. It would be easy to perceive her as THEIR henchwoman (which is what I think happened to Tasha). In a final TC where Cydney sits next to Jason and Scot, I don't see how she wins; mostly because she'll be seen as either a henchman or someone who was carried there.

In general, IMHO, we're socialised to normalise situations in which the guy makes the decisions and does all the rational thinking. That's what we saw with Jaclyn and Jon. Even when she was clearly the more savvy player we were shown the entire things as somehow relative to Jon and HIS game. Even Jon himself seemed to expect Jaclyn to simply rollover and let him win. The Joe/Aubry situation is something quite unique, I think. So I personally think young women are more likely to win if sitting next to another woman in the end, or if sitting next to a young man. (I'll have to actually check the stats for that, but if I were a young woman that's how I'd play. I'd want another of my kind at the end).

Also, those 2 guys were just jerks all around. Anyone who backstabs them is an angel in my eyes. Yeah sure he was nice to her, but the way he treated Alecia washed all of that out for me. That was a whole lot of bullcrap that wasn't necessary.

________

On Michele and control: the reason being perceptive and in control are important to me is that I need to know the winner was actually aware. I know there's a lot of luck with Survivor. I just don't believe the luck should extend to the point where the winner had NO idea what was happening. Even with Natalie White I could see how she swayed people to her side. I saw her working on the Galu(?) women and swayed them to vote with Foa Foa. And I saw her connecting with people through her religion. She didn't simply tell me that she didn't need to be carried, bro. I saw her carry herself.

I agree with your entire point on a rational level. I was just wondering what it was about Cyd that made me not root for her throughout the season. I was able to pinpoint the reason, and now, on the rewatch, I think I would find myself much happier with a Cyd win. I do not think it will happen, but if it does, I will not have any disappointment. 

Emotionally now, I am pulling for an Aubrey win. I think that we are going to see a Michelle win though. 

[dbunting]

Well I am not going to pretend to having done the amount of in depth analysis I see here. I will only speak from my thoughts.

Michelle - Beautiful, pleasant, but I have never felt like she was in control of anything. Even early on it seemed like she wanted to take control but it didn't quite work out for her. Even when voting Julia out it was more of going with the flow and not her idea.

Cydney - I can see a lot of times where she has directed the vote and gotten people out. She has had no problem with switching alliances when it suits her, yet calls out others for doing the same, and I don't like that. She was a part of the Scott - Jason torture of Alicia(spelling) before the merge that I can't forgive. Do I think she has played well yes, will she perform well in a final tribal council, yes because she has a great smile and personality, has she played well enough to win, yes, would I be happy if she won, nope.

Aubry - She has fought from the very beginning, I thought she was going to quit like 2 episodes into it when she was building the shelter in the sun. She has been strategic and helped vote out a lot of people. I could see her winning and I would be ok with that.

Tai - Has been my favorite pretty much since day one. He was targeted early and survived. Found an idol on his own, changed alliances when he felt the need to. After the merge made sure he aligned with someone he could work with. I think his down fall is that he seems so sincere. I think that he truly builds friendship with people and the other person feels it the same way, so when he has to cut ties and vote someone out it is seen as being personal and not just the game. I think he has definitely played well enough to win, I just think his heart is the one thing that will cause him to lose. I mean, the damn guy convinced a group of starving people to not eat a chicken, but to feed it instead!

Mark the Chicken - You have survived more days on Survivor than a lot of other people and had more airtime. You have stayed out of the drama and controversy(and stock pot), and never received a vote! You should be the winner of this season IMO. You have more personality than Michelle, I mean who will remember Michelle a year from now? More loyal than Cydney, Tai, and Aubry since you are not tied up and haven't left the camp to find a new place to live.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

Is Mark the same chicken whom Caleb saved in episode 1?