The missing pieces regarding Robert's Rebellion and the disapearence of Lyanna

[Ygrain]

6 hours ago, Jon Snow Nothing said:

I think we are all saying the same thing, only that imo the marriage means nothing without the later forgiveness.

Why marry right away when the girl has just lost her father and brother, and treason? Please, we're all talking here about the OP - the theory where Rhaegar rescued Lyanna, not eloped out of love to make babies. They were already traitors and chances were that Aerys would never let Rhaegar suceed him let alone get a second wife. That all changed when he needed Rhaegar.

If there was a marriage, I doubt it was done in front of a weirdtree, do those even exist in the South? And if there was a marriage it was after Jon was conceived, because of the "dishonor" of Lyanna, and that marriage wasn't planned. My opinion, of course, I respect yours and we'll have to wait until the last books are released to know the truth, if the truth is revealed.

Oh, and just to make things clear, I do think that Jon is trueborn, but I think the key lies in Hightower. He went to the TOJ bringing Aerys' writing document, in which he declared valid any marriage, or legitimate any child, letting Hightower stay there for security. That is why Hightower is still there fighting. He knows what the agreement was, he thinks the baby is King, he might not have heard of Viserys being named heir...

As others have pointed put, the marriages lacking the king's approval were still considered marriage, even if the king imposed some penalty.

Weirwoods are aplenty on the Isle of Faces, which, IIRC, GRRM mentioned as a location that we will "see".

I agree that Hightower staying and fighting at ToJ indicates the presence of a person whom Hightower believed to be the rightful king, regardless how the legitimacy was achieved.

4 hours ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

There are two reasons why I don't buy the rescue scenario:

1. A rescue does not require Rhaegar's own presence in person, on the contrary him being an extremely recognizable person, it kind of sabotages the mission.

2. Go hiding, especially without informing her family, while leaving plenty of room for wild speculation for the worst (as indeed it happened) is IMO the least effective solution, I'd even call it stupid - and I don't believe Rhaegar was stupid, naive yes but stupid, no.

3. Most of all, it makes absolutely no sense that no one (else) ever knew about Aerys calling for her head. I mean, he ordered that she was brough to him, but "keep it discreet", why? Why would Aerys do that? And in that case, why wouldn't, let's say, Barristan know about it, and never, ever, not even imply such a possibility? It just feels too silly, IMO, and worse, makes all the implicated characters look silly, too.

I think I'll stick to the scenario "she witnessed something that was supposed to be super secret and he had to prevent all the possibilities that she might tell". Makes much more sense IMO.

(And thematically, it fits nicely with many aspects of the Jon & Ygritte storyline).

Concerning the bolded: we shouldn't forget the possibility of communication failure, either by chance or by purposeful intervention of a third party (Varys or a maester/maesters are hot candidates).

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

2 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

As others have pointed put, the marriages lacking the king's approval were still considered marriage, even if the king imposed some penalty.

Weirwoods are aplenty on the Isle of Faces, which, IIRC, GRRM mentioned as a location that we will "see".

I agree that Hightower staying and fighting at ToJ indicates the presence of a person whom Hightower believed to be the rightful king, regardless how the legitimacy was achieved.

Concerning the bolded: we shouldn't forget the possibility of communication failure, either by chance or by purposeful intervention of a third party (Varys or a maester/maesters are hot candidates).

Or just how hard it is to communicate in Westeros.

Does Rhaegar or his men have a Raven for Riverrun? Or for Winterfell?

It is not easy to communicate in this time an place, add to that they likely think they are going to be wanted/ hunted by Aerys' men. They need to get to a secure location and then try to send notice back.

But how long is the Journey from Harrenhal to the ToJ? Is it longer than Brandon going to King's Landing? Longer than Aerys demanding Rickard?

[Veloknight]

53 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

If you feel these cases are different, this is good. People should not use these cases to justify or prove rhargar secretly married. 

To be more accurate, Maegor was prince when he was married with alys. 

Too bad only rhaegar is a genius to think about using a baby to make people accept his polygamy marriage. 

It's not "only Rhaegar" - you're ignoring what I said! For all we know, the others thought of it as well, but it wouldn't have helped their situation. Maegor obviously would have gotten a child if he was able - but then that was the entire reason he wanted other brides in the first place, now wasn't it!? As for Duncan the Small and Jaehearys, they obviously didn't feel they needed to, because their dad was a much nicer guy than Aerys II.

Furthermore, in no way does any of this invalidate a potential polygamous marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna.

53 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

To force people accept his polygamy marriage, he needs dragon and power.  Not a baby. 

Prove it.

All a baby does is give the Starks and the King a reason to go along with it. If they both accept the child as legitimate, who's going to be first to stick their neck out over it? It's not like Elia's being put aside, or Jon is ever going to rule - Aegon's the one in line for the IT. Even if Joe Q. Lordling is angry about it, so long as there's peace and the Starks and King are happy they have no reason to complain. They might say, "This is a bad idea, Rhaegar, remember Daemon Blackfyre?", but until and unless Jon/Viserys/Aemon/whateverhisnameis actually tries something, there's really no point.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

46 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Concerning the bolded: we shouldn't forget the possibility of communication failure, either by chance or by purposeful intervention of a third party (Varys or a maester/maesters are hot candidates).

 

No, I do not think so, in the case of a "rescue" plan. It is so crusial, that there should have been taken into account. It is explicable - understandable in the case of improvising [works even better if they were actually kidnapping Lyanna], where a whole lot number of issues can arise and go very wrong, but otherwise no.

I really can't think that a premeditated plan would not take into account the consequenses of a possible miscomunication problem and have "safety valves" for the worst case scenario. I also think that what the path of action they took, they wouldn't choose if there was any other option. So I think that they were somewhat forced by the circumstances to do the only thing they could, that happened to be the worst, and it would take a lot of explaining why the original plan failed, if there was one.

I mean, I know Rhaegar has dornish genes in him but I would not imagine his plans being as cunning as Doran's.  

Of course there are also all the other issues that do not point to a premeditated rescue plan, but to something more spontaneous in a similar vein with the Catnapping. There's also the World book that implies that Rhaegar was taking some steps in doing something to dethrone Aerys, so I can see it as much more possible that Rhaegar's trip to the Riverlands was made in that context and the "Lyanna affair" as the product of a series of events heavily depending on coincidence, or maybe better call it fate.

[Veloknight]

8 minutes ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

I also think that what the path of action they took, they wouldn't choose if there was any other option. So I think that they were somewhat forced by the circumstances to do the only thing they could, that happened to be the worst, and it would take a lot of explaining why the original plan failed, if there was one.

I mean, I know Rhaegar has dornish genes in him but I would not imagine his plans being as cunning as Doran's.  

Of course there are also all the other issues that do not point to a premeditated rescue plan, but to something more spontaneous in a similar vein with the Catnapping. There's also the World book that implies that Rhaegar was taking some steps in doing something to dethrone Aerys, so I can see it as much more possible that Rhaegar's trip to the Riverlands was made in that context and the "Lyanna affair" as the product of a series of events heavily depending on coincidence, or maybe better call it fate.

everything about the situation just screams of poor planning, regardless of whether it was a kidnapping, a rescue, or just a flight for their lives. That's one of the reasons why I discount a kidnapping: it's oddly rushed and ill-planned, suggesting some other actor or actors - which most strongly leads us back to Varys and Aerys. Whatever his other faults, nothing we can find on Rhaegar paints him as a particularly impatient man: if it was just a kidnapping or elopement, he probably could have waited for later, or at least acted more methodically. An emergency, then, is highly likely to be political, which makes the disappearance political.

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 minute ago, Veloknight said:

everything about the situation just screams of poor planning, regardless of whether it was a kidnapping, a rescue, or just a flight for their lives. That's one of the reasons why I discount a kidnapping: it's oddly rushed and ill-planned, suggesting some other actor or actors - which most strongly leads us back to Varys and Aerys. Whatever his other faults, nothing we can find on Rhaegar paints him as a particularly impatient man: if it was just a kidnapping or elopement, he probably could have waited for later, or at least acted more methodically. An emergency, then, is highly likely to be political, which makes the disappearance political.

Good point. Even if Rhaegar and Lyanna spoke (or wrote to each other) of the possibility of marriage (not that I think they did -- but even if they did), this scenario suggests that something forced Rhaegar's hand -- and the most likely explanation is the threat of Lyanna being arrested and charged by Aerys. 

[ShadowCat Rivers]

1 minute ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Good point. Even if Rhaegar and Lyanna spoke (or wrote to each other) of the possibility of marriage (not that I think they did -- but even if they did), this scenario suggests that something forced Rhaegar's hand -- and the most likely explanation is the threat of Lyanna being arrested and charged by Aerys. 

Can anyone explain why, and how, Aerys kept his intent to arrest Lyanna so secret that nobody knew? (Except, of course, Rhaegar, who somehow *had* to be informed...)

No, the explanation that makes the most sense --to me at least-- is that Lyanna happened to see something - like, Rhaegar conspiring against Aerys with some lords - and she couldn't be just let free to say what she saw, if she wanted to.

(Mirrored in parts by Jon and Ygritte's first meeting circumstances, and that's, I think, important.)

[UnmaskedLurker]

4 minutes ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Can anyone explain why, and how, Aerys kept his intent to arrest Lyanna so secret that nobody knew? (Except, of course, Rhaegar, who somehow *had* to be informed...)

No, the explanation that makes the most sense --to me at least-- is that Lyanna happened to see something - like, Rhaegar conspiring against Aerys with some lords - and she couldn't be just let free to say what she saw, if she wanted to.

(Mirrored in parts by Jon and Ygritte's first meeting circumstances, and that's, I think, important.)

What makes you think that no one knew? Just because none of the characters has discussed the matter does not mean that no one else knew. Aerys's inner circle likely knew -- and whomever Aerys intended to use to carry out the arrest. 

How could Lyanna ever have been close to Rhaegar conspiring? If you mean at the tourney -- that occurred a bit of time before Lyanna disappeared with Rhaegar -- why would Rhaegar wait so long and then feel urgency?

[ShadowCat Rivers]

15 minutes ago, Veloknight said:

everything about the situation just screams of poor planning, regardless of whether it was a kidnapping, a rescue, or just a flight for their lives. That's one of the reasons why I discount a kidnapping: it's oddly rushed and ill-planned, suggesting some other actor or actors - which most strongly leads us back to Varys and Aerys. Whatever his other faults, nothing we can find on Rhaegar paints him as a particularly impatient man: if it was just a kidnapping or elopement, he probably could have waited for later, or at least acted more methodically. An emergency, then, is highly likely to be political, which makes the disappearance political.

I referenced the "Catnapping", but in case you're not familiar with the board "terminology", it's the kidnapping/arrest of Tyrion by Catelyn: Nothing pre-planned, result of ill luck and because Catelyn was caught behaving suspiciously and she could not afford to let him inform his party of the fact. Everything then relies on improvisation (and ends up going wrong for the oddest of reasons).

[purple-eyes]

54 minutes ago, Veloknight said:

It's not "only Rhaegar" - you're ignoring what I said! For all we know, the others thought of it as well, but it wouldn't have helped their situation. Maegor obviously would have gotten a child if he was able - but then that was the entire reason he wanted other brides in the first place, now wasn't it!? As for Duncan the Small and Jaehearys, they obviously didn't feel they needed to, because their dad was a much nicer guy than Aerys II.

Furthermore, in no way does any of this invalidate a potential polygamous marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Prove it.

All a baby does is give the Starks and the King a reason to go along with it. If they both accept the child as legitimate, who's going to be first to stick their neck out over it? It's not like Elia's being put aside, or Jon is ever going to rule - Aegon's the one in line for the IT. Even if Joe Q. Lordling is angry about it, so long as there's peace and the Starks and King are happy they have no reason to complain. They might say, "This is a bad idea, Rhaegar, remember Daemon Blackfyre?", but until and unless Jon/Viserys/Aemon/whateverhisnameis actually tries something, there's really no point.

I do not know what you are arguing here.

Aerys did not even care about his true-born grandchildren, what makes you think a half-stark baby can make him approve this polygamy marriage?

And why did you think he would be happy? LOL. Rhaegar is doing a polygamy marriage which nobody did for 250 years, and he is marrying a daughter of his so-called enemy. And Aerys himself did a shame walk and he swore to faith he would only sleep with his lawful wife Rhaella. I failed to see why he would happily agree Rhaegar marry two wives. He would not recognize this polygamy marriage. If marriage is not recognized, no matter how many children Lyanna managed to birth, all of them are bastards.

His first response will likely be: my son, I did not give you my leave to have a polygamy marriage with a daughter of traitor, I do not recognize this marriage, this wolf-smelled child is a bastard.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ShadowCat Rivers]

25 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

What makes you think that no one knew? Just because none of the characters has discussed the matter does not mean that no one else knew. Aerys's inner circle likely knew -- and whomever Aerys intended to use to carry out the arrest. 

How could Lyanna ever have been close to Rhaegar conspiring? If you mean at the tourney -- that occurred a bit of time before Lyanna disappeared with Rhaegar -- why would Rhaegar wait so long and then feel urgency?

Aerys is the King. If he wants someone arrested, he issues a warrant and everyone is obligated to hand her to him. Just like he did when he summoned Rickard and then, when he demanded Robert's and Ned's heads. Aerys has no reason for secrecy, and it is not even necessary when the "trial" would be a public event.

There must be a special reason to explain why Aerys didn't go with the usual procedure.

 

No, I mean in the Riverlands, not at the tourney but later when Rhaegar came back there, presumably to conspire according to what Yandel implies (that's after Aegon's birth). Lyanna is known to be a keen rider and not a very proper lady, often doing what she's not supposed to do. She could be exploring or something, and caught herself up in the wrong place at the wrong time. Like, how Arya spied of Varys and Illyrio conspiring? (only she wasn't caught...) Presumably she had stayed at Harrenhal all this time, and the place of the incident was "not ten leagues" from there. So there are enough possibilies for this scenario.

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 minute ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Aerys is the King. If he wants someone arrested, he issues a warrant and everyone is obligated to hand her to him. Just like he did when he summoned Rickard and then, when he demanded Robert's and Ned's heads. Aerys has no reason for secrecy, and it is not even necessary when the "trial" would be a public event.

No, I mean in the Riverlands, not at the tourney but later when Rhaegar came back there, presumably to conspire according to what Yandel implies (that's after Aegon's birth). Lyanna is known to be a keen rider and not a very proper lady, often doing what she's not supposed to do. She could be exploring or something, and caught herself up in the wrong place at the wrong time. Like, how Arya spied of Varys and Illyrio conspiring? (only she wasn't caught...) Presumably she had stayed at Harrenhal all this time, and the place of the incident was "not ten leagues" from there. So there are enough possibilies for this scenario.

I am not suggesting secrecy at all. I am suggesting that Aerys did not "call for her head" (as he did with Ned and Robert) but rather sent guards to arrest her. I don't think it was secret at all -- just not told to more than the people who would be expected to be told.

As to whether Rhaegar -- with his six companions -- were engaged in a heated conspiracy talk that Lyanna overheard and thus needed to be taken so she could not blab -- well, maybe. But other than a tenuous analogy to the Cat napping incident, I don't see the evidence to support that theory. Of course, that does not mean it will not have gone down that way -- GRRM may just want it to be a surprise and did not plant clearer clues. It just seems that GRRM planted alternative clues which I tend to think are more likely as the explanation.

[purple-eyes]

4 minutes ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Aerys is the King. If he wants someone arrested, he issues a warrant and everyone is obligated to hand her to him. Just like he did when he summoned Rickard and then, when he demanded Robert's and Ned's heads. Aerys has no reason for secrecy, and it is not even necessary when the "trial" would be a public event.

There must be a special reason to explain why Aerys didn't go with the usual procedure.

 

No, I mean in the Riverlands, not at the tourney but later when Rhaegar came back there, presumably to conspire according to what Yandel implies (that's after Aegon's birth). Lyanna is known to be a keen rider and not a very proper lady, often doing what she's not supposed to do. She could be exploring or something, and caught herself up in the wrong place at the wrong time. Like, how Arya spied of Varys and Illyrio conspiring? (only she wasn't caught...) Presumably she had stayed at Harrenhal all this time, and the place of the incident was "not ten leagues" from there. So there are enough possibilies for this scenario.

I think we need to cite Rhaegar's words here:

"When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

Rhaegar meant to do it (I assume he meant Harrenhall), but he did not do it. I think this also meant that he did not do this after that either.

So rhaegar went out to take Lyanna, not secretly depose his father.

 

[Veloknight]

9 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

I think we need to cite Rhaegar's words here:

"When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

Rhaegar meant to do it (I assume he meant Harrenhall), but he did not do it. I think this also meant that he did not do this after that either.

So rhaegar went out to take Lyanna, not secretly depose his father.

 

He meant to call the council long ago. Before calling the council, other steps need to be taken.

His words can just as easily reflect a regret that he didn't act with more haste and urgency in pressing the issue in the first place, not that he wasn't trying.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

2 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I am not suggesting secrecy at all. I am suggesting that Aerys did not "call for her head" (as he did with Ned and Robert) but rather sent guards to arrest her. I don't think it was secret at all -- just not told to more than the people who would be expected to be told.

As to whether Rhaegar -- with his six companions -- were engaged in a heated conspiracy talk that Lyanna overheard and thus needed to be taken so she could not blab -- well, maybe. But other than a tenuous analogy to the Cat napping incident, I don't see the evidence to support that theory. Of course, that does not mean it will not have gone down that way -- GRRM may just want it to be a surprise and did not plant clearer clues. It just seems that GRRM planted alternative clues which I tend to think are more likely as the explanation.

I disagree in that it is normal that we would have never heard anything -not even the slightest clue- about it from the people that would have known - Pycelle, Varys and Barristan to name not one, but three of them. If such an explanation is given by the author, I would expect to include convincing reasons for such questions.

Personally, I do not see any evidence at all to support the rescue scenario - the next more likely alternative, IMO, is the elopement-played-as-kidnapping (to salvage Lyanna's good name) - while what I propose is as speculative as any other scenario but has the benefit of thematic relevance, it keeps additional plot prerequisites to minimal and it does not require to dismiss any of the information that we have been given so far.

 

[purple-eyes]

5 minutes ago, Veloknight said:

He meant to call the council long ago. Before calling the council, other steps need to be taken.

His words can just as easily reflect a regret that he didn't act with more haste and urgency in pressing the issue in the first place, not that he wasn't trying.

I think you did not get my point. He was talking about Harrenhall Tourney.

His words had a hint that he only tried once and failed. 

If he tried it again before his elopement with Lyanna, then that is a second time.

He should say: I meant to do it long ago, I tried a few times, but.......

[Veloknight]

Just now, purple-eyes said:

I think you did not get my point. He was talking about Harrenhall Tourney.

His words had a hint that he only tried once and failed. 

If he tried it again before his elopement with Lyanna, then that is a second time.

He should say: I meant to do it long ago, I tried a few times, but.......

No, I just think you're wrong.

A coup d'etat is a big, complicated thing to pull off. It's not something you "just try". Aerys had his agents and men in the court, and Rhaegar his. Plus, whatever Rhaegar wants to do can hurt Aerys, and while I think Rhaegar wants to depose him, most people would want to minimize the suffering and humiliation a parents might have to endure. It doesn't mean Rhaegar wasn't plotting against the King - there's a mountain of hints and evidence to the effect - it just means that he realizes now, with the benefit of hindsight, that he should have made his move earlier.

[purple-eyes]

18 minutes ago, Veloknight said:

No, I just think you're wrong.

A coup d'etat is a big, complicated thing to pull off. It's not something you "just try". Aerys had his agents and men in the court, and Rhaegar his. Plus, whatever Rhaegar wants to do can hurt Aerys, and while I think Rhaegar wants to depose him, most people would want to minimize the suffering and humiliation a parents might have to endure. It doesn't mean Rhaegar wasn't plotting against the King - there's a mountain of hints and evidence to the effect - it just means that he realizes now, with the benefit of hindsight, that he should have made his move earlier.

I agree all you said, but what I am saying is, from all records, rhaegar only tried in harrenhal and he failed there because aerys showed up. 

We had zero proof that he tried it again one year after harrenhal tourney. All we know is that he tried in HH, but he failed. 

Like you suggested, he went to riverlands again to plan to depose his daddy but lyanna accidentally heard about it. So that rhaegar had to keep her with them. (This is your idea, right?) 

so this is a second try after a long time and we had zero hint for this one. 

 

[The scourge of westeros]

On January 28, 2016 at 4:29 PM, purple-eyes said:

Nowhere said lyanna must be the mother of savior in rhaegar's mind. 

Rhaegar thought aegon is the one. 

He was hoping elia can give him one more. 

Nothing related to lyanna. 

Any fertile woman can do this job for him with low low risk. 

But no, rhaegar decided his own desire is more important. 

So instead of a daughter of minor house, he got a daughter of LP and fiancée of another LP to doom his family and kingdom. 

I call this selfish, irresponsible and stupid. 

You feel somebody's young wife is super hotter than your own old wife, fine, it happens all the time, but you should control yourself and not abandon your family and elope with another man's wife, ok? 

 

 

Why join a forum to be so willfully ignorant to the source material and be closed off to the opinions of others? The way you're so aggressive with your opinions and completely intolerant to those of others concerning a work of fiction is scary. 

[Veloknight]

1 hour ago, purple-eyes said:

Like you suggested, he went to riverlands again to plan to depose his daddy but lyanna accidentally heard about it. So that rhaegar had to keep her with them. (This is your idea, right?) 

so this is a second try after a long time and we had zero hint for this one. 

 

Nope! My theory is that R+L happened due to circumstances beyond their control or chance, that it wasn't preplanned and was forced by necessity. I am agnostic to the different possible reasons why this could have happened, as well as the "who" it was who forced their hands.

 

It's not the second try after a long time, it's a continuation of an ongoing plot that took years. Harrenhal likely took a lot of planning, and after that, Aegon was born and the family moved to DS. I suspect this was Rhaegar getting right back into things after the break.