Best explanations of Varys and Littlefinger? Motives, activities etc.

[aryagonnakill#2]

2 minutes ago, Thuckey said:

AS much as it is denied, I think LF DID in fact hire Jaquin to kill Ned on the way to the wall. How the fuck else would a facelessman (The worlds most feared and skillful assassins) find himself stuck in a cage with the likes of Biter and the other one?

 

Jaquan's face itself what likely that of a prisoner whose identity he stole to infiltrate the black cells. After the Mountains men destroyed all hope of them ever reaching the wall, Jaquan then easily escaped when he felt like it. Perhaps to a certain swinging bridge? Speculation but interesting.

But he didn't escape when he could.  He hung around Harrenhall who knows how long.  The other problem with the theory is the price.  The price is based on what you have and the target, not a set rate.  So if the Waifs dad had to sacrifice his daughter and half his treasure for his own wife who he could ensure had no protection, then Ned should be a much pricier target.  Especially since LF has no 1 important to him to sacrifice to the house of black and white.

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, Thuckey said:

AS much as it is denied, I think LF DID in fact hire Jaquin to kill Ned on the way to the wall. How the fuck else would a facelessman (The worlds most feared and skillful assassins) find himself stuck in a cage with the likes of Biter and the other one?

I'm sure LF didn't hire Jaqen H'ghar to kill Ned. It was easier and cheaper to convince Joff to show his determination and seriousness against his enemies. But I agree. Killing the man who stole the woman he loved was LF top priority.

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

I believe Varys wanted Ned to join team Aegon after his confession. 

That "if one Hand can die, why not another?" Line looks alot different knowing Varys didn't have anything to do with Jon Arryn.

There is another Hand named Jon who "died" though.

I think you're right. 

[The Commentator]

Oh, I don't know if Littlefinger is evil.  The story might unfold in such a way that we learn later on who are the ones responsible for the woes that have befallen the Starks, Arryns, Baratheons, Tullys and Lannisters.  I'm betting Doran Martell is behind it.  Petyr works with Doran to bring down the houses who started the rebellion.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I'm sure LF didn't hire Jaqen H'ghar to kill Ned. It was easier and cheaper to convince Joff to show his determination and seriousness against his enemies. But I agree. Killing the man who stole the woman he loved was LF top priority.

Yes, after The Ned had been tossed into the black cells, of course it was easier and cheaper to manipulate him into having The Ned's head lopped off. But that's not when he prayed for Faceless Man to give his nemesis the gift.

If Petyr prayed for a Faceless Man to give the gift to The Ned it was just before or as A Game of Thrones opened. 

Truth now, at that time, could Littlefinger have foreseen the events that unfolded in Arya V, Game 65? 

[Thuckey]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think you're right. 

Rereading his post yeah that does make alot of sense.

 

"IF one hand can die" - refering to Conington "Why not another?" Potentially FAKING Ned's death. 

 

Very insightful. 

[Lord Varys]

Littlefinger most certainly didn't pay a Faceless Man to kill Ned.

First anyone who has read AGoT realizes at once that Littlefinger does not want to kill Ned until he rejects his convoluted Joffrey-Renly plan.

Secondly, we can easily guess what Littlefinger's desires in AGoT are - power, as it is always, and rekindle the affair with Catelyn he believes he had. Thanks to Lysa's letter Ned is Littlefinger's steed to power. He has the ear of King Robert, and if Littlefinger has the ear of Ned, as he soon does, he rise ever higher finally getting the great seat he covets.

That this was the plan is never more clear than in the moment Littlefinger tried to convince Ned to go along with his plan when Robert is dying. Together they would have been invincible. Ned had the legal power and the titles, Littlefinger the brains. His price would have been a great seat for himself ... and something else, entirely.

Sansa's hand.

The idea of rekindling the relationship with Catelyn is dead as soon as Littlefinger meets Catelyn again when she comes down south. Most likely he made some sort of advances while they were waiting for Ned, but Catelyn obviously rejected him. That was over then. Back to plan B and marry Lysa as soon as it works and then take over the Vale (which Lysa thinks is plan A, of course). Assuming Littlefinger had been able to rekindle his relationship with Catelyn - he most likely counted upon Catelyn accompanying Ned to KL - Ned's days would have been very limited, of course. But this wasn't the case, so Ned was quite safe.

Even more so after Littlefinger's eyes fell on Sansa. Catelyn was dead and gone for him then, most likely, or at least very far in the back of his mind. It is quite clear that he was very much obsessed with Sansa already in AGoT, and from ADwD we know he asked Cersei for her hand after Ned's downfall (Cersei's rejection of that idea most likely was what triggered his idea to have Ned executed via Joffrey to cause trouble for the Lannisters he could then help resolve to rise higher and eventually be good enough for Sansa).

But how to marry her? Well, assuming an alliance with Ned could have worked that would have been very simple. Just ask her father to marry her to him. If Ned and Littlefinger had become some sort of dream time as rulers of the Realm, successfully dealing with Stannis, the Lannisters, and any other enemy, such a reward would easily have been possible. Ned was already canceling the Joff-Sansa marriage, and a Stark-Baelish match actually could have strengthened their alliance.

Hell, such a match could actually have made Littlefinger and Ned real friends.

But any such prospect died when Ned decided to take a cause of action that was detrimental against Littlefinger's own policies as well as his chances for political survival.

What Jaqen was doing in KL/the black cells is completely unclear as of yet. But George better comes up with a good explanation for that. It seems rather likely that Jaqen was already trying to fulfill the mission that was supposed to take him to Oldtown to infiltrate the Citadel - remember, he is already bent on that mission when he leaves Arya in ACoK. That suggests that his mission has something to do with dragons, which could be a hint that he is either working for Varys (who is the only guy I can imagine outsmarting and capturing a Faceless Man, explaining how he got into the black cells and out of them in one piece) or for the House of Black and White itself - which may intend to kill Daenerys and her dragons (I know that Jaqen is in KL long before the dragons hatch, the Faceless Men might be able to see into the future), and intends to secure the necessary means in the vaults of the Citadel.

Euron clearly is working with a different Faceless Man, and most likely not exactly paying that guy for his services. I mean, come on, Euron is a pirate who has (presumably) bend warlocks to his will. He can also have his very own tame Faceless Man. My idea is that Euron captured a ship with a Faceless Man on board and was able to identify him as such either because his Braavosi shipmates gave him up or with the help of his tame warlocks (if he already had acquired their help at this point). Remember that Euron captured Pyat Pree and company somewhere in the Summer Sea sometime during ASoS and was able to be at Pyke to murder Balon very shortly thereafter. It makes no sense that he had time for the necessary detour to go to Braavos and barter with the Faceless Men. Not to mention that he could also have killed Balon just with the help of his warlocks. He didn't necessary need a Faceless Man for that. But since he had one on the Silence already, he could put him to good use.

This tame Faceless Man is most likely no Faceless Man at all but a Faceless Woman, the so-called dusky woman, and her mission right now is/was to kill Victarion when his work was done and impersonate him thereafter to ensure that the Iron Fleet behaved. Moqorro makes that whole plan somewhat difficult - although I'm not sure on whom I'd put my money if a Faceless Man and Moqorro are at each other's throats...

[Lost Melnibonean]

14 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger most certainly didn't pay a Faceless Man to kill Ned.

--Well thanks for clearing that up for us, George. 

First anyone who has read AGoT realizes at once that Littlefinger does not want to kill Ned until he rejects his convoluted Joffrey-Renly plan.

--Funny, I have read the book, and I came to an entirely different  conclusion. In fact, so have a bunch of readers. But then wer're probably not as enlightened as you. 

Secondly, we can easily guess what Littlefinger's desires in AGoT are - power, as it is always, and rekindle the affair with Catelyn he believes he had. Thanks to Lysa's letter Ned is Littlefinger's steed to power. He has the ear of King Robert, and if Littlefinger has the ear of Ned, as he soon does, he rise ever higher finally getting the great seat he covets.

--When does Petyr ever exhibit any indication that he wants to rekindle his romance with Catelyn? And please don't go on and on with some long winded explanation based on your speculative assumptions presented as fact, but please do actually provide quotes or cite passages from your books. 

That this was the plan is never more clear than in the moment Littlefinger tried to convince Ned to go along with his plan when Robert is dying. Together they would have been invincible. Ned had the legal power and the titles, Littlefinger the brains. His price would have been a great seat for himself ... and something else, entirely.

--So, you really think that offer was genuine?

Sansa's hand.

The idea of rekindling the relationship with Catelyn is dead as soon as Littlefinger meets Catelyn again when she comes down south. Most likely he made some sort of advances while they were waiting for Ned, but Catelyn obviously rejected him. That was over then. Back to plan B and marry Lysa as soon as it works and then take over the Vale (which Lysa thinks is plan A, of course). Assuming Littlefinger had been able to rekindle his relationship with Catelyn - he most likely counted upon Catelyn accompanying Ned to KL - Ned's days would have been very limited, of course. But this wasn't the case, so Ned was quite safe.

--So, you're saying that Petyr has Lysander murder Jon Arryn so that Eddard would become Robert's Hand and move to King's Landing with Catelyn, and Petyr could cuckold The Ned the way he cuckolded Jon Arryn? Oh, and this would be his ticket to "the great seat he covets?"

Even more so after Littlefinger's eyes fell on Sansa. Catelyn was dead and gone for him then, most likely, or at least very far in the back of his mind. It is quite clear that he was very much obsessed with Sansa already in AGoT, and from ADwD we know he asked Cersei for her hand after Ned's downfall (Cersei's rejection of that idea most likely was what triggered his idea to have Ned executed via Joffrey to cause trouble for the Lannisters he could then help resolve to rise higher and eventually be good enough for Sansa).

But how to marry her? Well, assuming an alliance with Ned could have worked that would have been very simple. Just ask her father to marry her to him. If Ned and Littlefinger had become some sort of dream time as rulers of the Realm, successfully dealing with Stannis, the Lannisters, and any other enemy, such a reward would easily have been possible. Ned was already canceling the Joff-Sansa marriage, and a Stark-Baelish match actually could have strengthened their alliance.

Hell, such a match could actually have made Littlefinger and Ned real friends.

But any such prospect died when Ned decided to take a cause of action that was detrimental against Littlefinger's own policies as well as his chances for political survival.

--So, all Petyr was looking for since Hoster shipped him back to the Fingers was a little love from The Ned...

What Jaqen was doing in KL/the black cells is completely unclear as of yet. But George better comes up with a good explanation for that. It seems rather likely that Jaqen was already trying to fulfill the mission that was supposed to take him to Oldtown to infiltrate the Citadel - remember, he is already bent on that mission when he leaves Arya in ACoK. That suggests that his mission has something to do with dragons, which could be a hint that he is either working for Varys (who is the only guy I can imagine outsmarting and capturing a Faceless Man, explaining how he got into the black cells and out of them in one piece) or for the House of Black and White itself - which may intend to kill Daenerys and her dragons (I know that Jaqen is in KL long before the dragons hatch, the Faceless Men might be able to see into the future), and intends to secure the necessary means in the vaults of the Citadel.

--That's rich, first you say the reason he's in the black cells is completely unclear, then you offer a "likely" explanation. 

Euron clearly is working with a different Faceless Man, and most likely not exactly paying that guy for his services. I mean, come on, Euron is a pirate who has (presumably) bend warlocks to his will. He can also have his very own tame Faceless Man. My idea is that Euron captured a ship with a Faceless Man on board and was able to identify him as such either because his Braavosi shipmates gave him up or with the help of his tame warlocks (if he already had acquired their help at this point). Remember that Euron captured Pyat Pree and company somewhere in the Summer Sea sometime during ASoS and was able to be at Pyke to murder Balon very shortly thereafter. It makes no sense that he had time for the necessary detour to go to Braavos and barter with the Faceless Men. Not to mention that he could also have killed Balon just with the help of his warlocks. He didn't necessary need a Faceless Man for that. But since he had one on the Silence already, he could put him to good use.

--Well, that's creative. 

This tame Faceless Man is most likely no Faceless Man at all but a Faceless Woman, the so-called dusky woman, and her mission right now is/was to kill Victarion when his work was done and impersonate him thereafter to ensure that the Iron Fleet behaved. Moqorro makes that whole plan somewhat difficult - although I'm not sure on whom I'd put my money if a Faceless Man and Moqorro are at each other's throats...

--Sorry, that's crackpot... Don't you know that the dusky woman is Missande's mum? 

 

[Neptunium]

I think that Littlefinger's plan is to acquire power by:

• Acquiring control over the Vale and maintaining that control, ideally in a way that avoids or minimalises war.
• Hoarding as much food and gold into the Vale.
• Establishing as big of a name for himself as possible (through gathering titles and lands).
• Bankrupting the other kingdoms as much as possible through wars and, during his time as Master of Coin, excessive borrowing.
• Riding out the winter in the Vale while the other kingdoms suffer from starvation. The other kingdoms are in a pretty bad state now for even a normal winter, and it's predicted the coming winter will be a long run. He could also potentially make a profit from this by selling food, if he cared to.
• Seeing where he stands militarily and economically come the spring, and taking advantage of the situation. 

 

The first bullet point is the most important one and the most tenuous. Unless there was something we didn't know about, it relied entirely on manipulating Lysa. Lysa's gone and he has control over the Vale, so he's past the most chancy bit. He still has to maintain control over the Vale though. Otherwise he has a lot of flexibility to adjust his plans or make new ones. If he plays his cards right, the Vale could be the only kingdom in a good position come the spring* and the Lord of the Vale could easily be the most powerful person in Westeros (even more than Tywin was in his day). 

*Dorne really the only contender here.

 

Any hidden heirs, marriage pacts, titles or monetary credit he can get his hands on will strengthen his position.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

stuff

Well, my speculation is more in line with what George actually said about Littlefinger. You know, that he actually loves Catelyn, and thinks she loved him and fucked him, too, back in the day. That is why he challenged Brandon to the duel. He actually thought Cat wanted to marry him, and was only going along with that because of the whole family, duty, honor thing.

More importantly, George has already enlightened us on Littlefinger's feelings for Sansa. They are threefold. A part of Littlefinger sees Sansa as the daughter he and Catelyn could have had (suggesting that Littlefinger hasn't emotionally gotten over the whole Catelyn thing), another part sees Sansa as a (more beautiful) replacement for Catelyn he desires, and a third part considers her as a piece in his political games.

If you break that down Littlefinger's real feelings for Sansa most likely will always win the day. He is never going to sacrifice her.

The idea that Littlefinger wanted to get Ned to KL to kill him makes no sense at all. Eventually Ned became an obstacle and a problem but only after he rejected Littlefinger's offer in the night of Robert's death. If you check AGoT then Littlefinger isn't exactly very close with the Lannisters in that book - there is not textual evidence that he is as close to them as he soon grows to Ned, especially in light of the fact that pretty much no Lannister is in an actual position of power at court (i.e. involved directly in the government of the Realm).

Littlefinger ends up in the unique position to help Cersei secure Joff's rise to the throne, thus buying himself into camp Lannister. But that was just an accident of history, really. You know, if Eddard Stark had never found out the truth about Cersei's children and Cersei had still murdered Robert (say, during that melee) then Ned himself had put Robert's crown on Joffrey's head, and would have supported his best friend's sons in his war against the pretenders Stannis and Renly.

I'm certainly sure that Littlefinger had no inclination whatsoever to marry Lysa and take over the Vale while there was still a chance that he could regain Catelyn. And if you check the books you will realize that he actually wants to be send to Riverrun as Joff's envoy to treat with Robb and Catelyn, trying to make peace between the Lannisters and the Starks. At that point he may still have hoped to marry Catelyn and become Robb's stepfather just as he later marries Lysa and becomes Robert's stepfather.

Of course, if it had turned out that Cat was receptive to his advances (and he makes advances to her, quite subtly, of course, but they are there when Cat meets in him in AGoT) Ned would eventually have suffered the same fate as Jon Arryn, with Catelyn and Petyr murdering him together, or Littlefinger taking him out with Cat's silent approval or behind her back.

People usually overlook the fact that Littlefinger has no way to predict the future. Back when Jon Arryn was murdered he may have quite different goals he wanted to achieve with the letter Lysa sent then he later eventually did. Being stuck with Lysa certainly wasn't the plan. Just imagine what would have happened had Tyrion/Cersei sent Littlefinger to treat with Robb and Cat. He would have sent a raven from Riverrun to Lysa, and the Lords of the Vale would have come to their aid, and they would have crushed the Lannisters.

Eventually Littlefinger is content with just taking Sansa as his replacement Catelyn, but that was also a complete coincidence. If Cat's daughters had both remained at Winterfell he would have never seen or fallen in love with Sansa, and subsequently there wouldn't have been no 'new Catelyn' to (partially) replace the old Catelyn in his heart.

If Ned had been the one who gave Littlefinger Sansa's hand in marriage I actually think he would have been very grateful and not prone to betray him the next day. Perhaps a week later or so, but certainly not in the near future. This would have given Littlefinger the future and life he always wanted as a boy. He is not yet that old, after all.

As to the Faceless Man mystery:

There is indeed no good explanation how the Jaqen guy ended up in the black cells. If he ended up there against his own will then I really only think Varys could have put him there - and he would have been the one allowing Yoren 'to find' him in the black cells and take him out because, you know, Rugen is in charge of those cells. Littlefinger has nothing to do with the management of prisoners.

If Jaqen's mission in Oldtown is a job he is doing on behalf of the House of Black and White - which certainly is a possibility - then it is strange that he tried to get there via KL and is captured there for some unknown reason.

The idea that Jaqen could be another face of Syrio Forel is tempting (after all, Trant could just have taken him prisoner and subsequently thrown him into the dungeons where Syrio then stole the face of another prisoner to disappear) but it makes no sense that he would spend time in the service of the Starks if he already has another mission in Oldtown.

Varys/Illyrio could also be the very few people who have the means to actually break the Faceless Man. Say, Jaqen was sent a decade or two decades ago by some disgruntled Pentoshi nobleman after Varys, but Varys caught him and tortured him beneath the Red Keep for years. Such a man might now be willing to do anything he asks, Faceless Man or not (on the other hand - Jaqen doesn't appear to be broken so that's perhaps not the case).

I think this whole scenario is a mess, really. George had no clue who Jaqen was when he first introduced him, and he only developed into a Faceless Man during the writing process of ACoK. A good explanation as to why a man like him ended up in a black cell will be very difficult to find. Not to mention that he is killing time at Harrenhal rather than trying to get to Oldtown as quickly as possible.

Jaqen's mission in Oldtown most certainly has to do with the dragonlore books stored there, and since one of them is called 'The Death of the Dragons' it is quite clear what this is about. The question that remains is: Who wants to kill the dragons? The Faceless Men themselves, or somebody they are working for? In light of the fact that they most likely caused the Doom my guess is that they want to finish the thing for good and kill both Dany and the dragons. In fact, I've long entertained the idea that Arya's mission will be the kill Daenerys and the dragons once she has finished her training. Sending her back to Westeros would be rather cheep, especially since she can't kill many of the people she actually hates due to the code of the Faceless Men. And the idea that they let her off the hook and allow her to go back home after she has seen their secrets makes no sense.

The dusky woman being a Faceless Man isn't my idea, by the way. That's a very old idea. And even if that's crap, she clearly is Euron's agent and reacts very suspiciously when Moqorro arrives and takes over Victarion's care. Not to mention that she also was the one who treated his wound before - the maester looked at it, but it was the dusky woman who did the bandaging. She had the best opportunity to ensure that the wound would fester/not heal, eventually killing Victarion. And if Euron has a Faceless Man in his service, why the hell should we assume he would let him go? If he can enslave warlocks, there is no reason to assume he cannot also enslave Faceless Men, right?

And Euron has to have somebody he can trust to ensure that Victarion doesn't betray him. He has Dragonbinder now, and the Iron Fleet. If Vic gets a hand on Daenerys then the tables could actually quite easily be turned on Euron. And he is not as stupid to allow that to happen.

[finger]

I think I've told this before. I don't think LF tried to provoque a war.

He had Arryn killed out of fear that he discovered that SR was LF's. But, in the eyes of everybody he was still an Arryn's man, so he held a mutual distrust with the Lannisters. Stark-Lannister enmity was convenient to  him, but at the same time, he should try to find a support in Ned.

It's Ned who kills himself. LF just refuses to join him in his stupid decisions. It's Cat who prompt the Lannister attack on the Tullys, and Ned's moves had a war between Stannis and Tywin as the only outcome. Don't blame everything on LF, he just gives an occasional helping hand to some who are forging their own doom.

[Sullen]

On 29/01/2016 at 2:44 PM, bringerofhope said:

Using the old D&D alignment grid...:

Littlefinger - the most 'chaotic evil' character of the series. Maybe even the embodiment of chaotic evil.

Varys - more subjective, but I think 'chaotic neutral'

Agree/disagree?

Varys is Lawful Neutral, possibly Evil,

He very much does believe in order and its usefulness, and he certainly wants order for Aegon.

I think their endgoals are pretty clear at this point...

Varys wants to install the Blackfyres on the Throne, Aegon more specifically. What stakes he has in that, I have no clue, but I do believe he might really believe what he confessed to Kevan in ADwD.

Littlefinger wants as much power for himself as possible, without aiming for the Throne. He's greedy to no end, and will stir shit up chaotically hoping it might advantage him one way or another. I do not believe he had a master plan at the beginning of AGoT (while Varys did), he simply caused chaos and improvised.

[Knight Of Winter]

OP, have you seen this old thread? You might find it interesting, it has quite a lot of great speculation about your topic

[Lost Melnibonean]

Jiminy Cricket LV, That was over 1,400 words! Did ya stay up all night typing that response?

Well, my speculation is more in line with what George actually said about Littlefinger. You know, that he actually loves Catelyn, and thinks she loved him and fucked him, too, back in the day.

We have good reason to believe that Petyr believes that he banged Catelyn when he was inebriated, but that it was actually Lysa who came to him that evening. And we know that he has bragged about his conquest. And we know that he told Lysa that the only woman he ever loved was Catelyn as he gave her a nudge out the Moon Door. Of course that could have been said out of spite, but it is certainly reasonable to presume that Petyr was in love with Catelyn , as you say, “back in the day.” But we do not know that he actually loves Catelyn during the time of Game, Clash and Storm, unless of course you can point us to a particular SSM, where he said that Petyr still loves Catelyn.

That is why he challenged Brandon to the duel. He actually thought Cat wanted to marry him, and was only going along with that because of the whole family, duty, honor thing.{/quote]Yes, this we know from his back story.

More importantly, George has already enlightened us on Littlefinger's feelings for Sansa. They are threefold. A part of Littlefinger sees Sansa as the daughter he and Catelyn could have had (suggesting that Littlefinger hasn't emotionally gotten over the whole Catelyn thing), another part sees Sansa as a (more beautiful) replacement for Catelyn he desires, and a third part considers her as a piece in his political games.

If you break that down Littlefinger's real feelings for Sansa most likely will always win the day. He is never going to sacrifice her.

I happen to agree with this, although, I think we have to allow that we could be wrong.

The idea that Littlefinger wanted to get Ned to KL to kill him makes no sense at all. Eventually Ned became an obstacle and a problem but only after he rejected Littlefinger's offer in the night of Robert's death. If you check AGoT then Littlefinger isn't exactly very close with the Lannisters in that book - there is not textual evidence that he is as close to them as he soon grows to Ned, especially in light of the fact that pretty much no Lannister is in an actual position of power at court (i.e. involved directly in the government of the Realm).

Littlefinger ends up in the unique position to help Cersei secure Joff's rise to the throne, thus buying himself into camp Lannister. But that was just an accident of history, really. You know, if Eddard Stark had never found out the truth about Cersei's children and Cersei had still murdered Robert (say, during that melee) then Ned himself had put Robert's crown on Joffrey's head, and would have supported his best friend's sons in his war against the pretenders Stannis and Renly.

See, you are assuming that Petyr’s offer to Eddard to help him rule as Joffrey’s regent a few hours before Cersei’s purge began was a genuine offer. However, I do not believe that the offer was genuine, and even if it was, I don’t believe Petyr thought it would be accepted. Rather than just give you my net opinion, here is the passage in spoiler tags for length. This passage follows immediately after Robert returns mortally wounded from the hunt. And for purposes of this discussion, it should be noted that Eddard summoned Petyr; Petyr did not seek out Eddard. . .

Lord Petyr was clad in a blue velvet tunic with puffed sleeves, his silvery cape patterned with mockingbirds. "I suppose congratulations are in order," he said as he seated himself.

Ned scowled. "The king lies wounded and near to death."

"I know," Littlefinger said. "I also know that Robert has named you Protector of the Realm."

Ned's eyes flicked to the king's letter on the table beside him, its seal unbroken. "And how is it you know that, my lord?"

"Varys hinted as much," Littlefinger said, "and you have just confirmed it."

Ned's mouth twisted in anger. "Damn Varys and his little birds. Catelyn spoke truly, the man has some black art. I do not trust him."

"Excellent. You're learning." Littlefinger leaned forward. "Yet I'll wager you did not drag me here in the black of night to discuss the eunuch."

"No," Ned admitted. "I know the secret Jon Arryn was murdered to protect. Robert will leave no trueborn son behind him. Joffrey and Tommen are Jaime Lannister's bastards, born of his incestuous union with the queen."

Littlefinger lifted an eyebrow. "Shocking," he said in a tone that suggested he was not shocked at all. "The girl as well? No doubt. So when the king dies . . . "

"The throne by rights passes to Lord Stannis, the elder of Robert's two brothers."

Lord Petyr stroked his pointed beard as he considered the matter. "So it would seem. Unless . . . "

"Unless, my lord? There is no seeming to this. Stannis is the heir. Nothing can change that."

"Stannis cannot take the throne without your help. If you're wise, you'll make certain Joffrey succeeds."

Ned gave him a stony stare. "Have you no shred of honor?"

"Oh, a shred, surely," Littlefinger replied negligently. "Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

"Now look at the other side of the coin. Joffrey is but twelve, and Robert gave you the regency, my lord. You are the Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. The power is yours, Lord Stark. All you need do is reach out and take it. Make your peace with the Lannisters. Release the Imp. Wed Joffrey to your Sansa. Wed your younger girl to Prince Tommen, and your heir to Myrcella. It will be four years before Joffrey comes of age. By then he will look to you as a second father, and if not, well . . . four years is a good long while, my lord. Long enough to dispose of Lord Stannis. Then, should Joffrey prove troublesome, we can reveal his little secret and put Lord Renly on the throne."

"We?" Ned repeated.

Littlefinger gave a shrug. "You'll need someone to share your burdens. I assure you, my price would be modest."

"Your price." Ned's voice was ice. "Lord Baelish, what you suggest is treason."

"Only if we lose."

"You forget," Ned told him. "You forget Jon Arryn. You forget Jory Cassel. And you forget this." He drew the dagger and laid it on the table between them; a length of dragonbone and Valyrian steel, as sharp as the difference between right and wrong, between true and false, between life and death. "They sent a man to cut my son's throat, Lord Baelish."

Littlefinger sighed. "I fear I did forget, my lord. Pray forgive me. For a moment I did not remember that I was talking to a Stark." His mouth quirked. "So it will be Stannis, and war?"

"It is not a choice. Stannis is the heir."

"Far be it from me to dispute the Lord Protector. What would you have of me, then? Not my wisdom, for a certainty."

"I shall do my best to forget your . . . wisdom," Ned said with distaste. "I called you here to ask for the help you promised Catelyn. This is a perilous hour for all of us. Robert has named me Protector, true enough, but in the eyes of the world, Joffrey is still his son and heir. The queen has a dozen knights and a hundred men-at-arms who will do whatever she commands  . . . enough to overwhelm what remains of my own household guard. And for all I know, her brother Jaime may be riding for King's Landing even as we speak, with a Lannister host at his back."

"And you without an army." Littlefinger toyed with the dagger on the table, turning it slowly with a finger. "There is small love lost between Lord Renly and the Lannisters. Bronze Yohn Royce, Ser Balon Swann, Ser Loras, Lady Tanda, the Redwyne twins . . . each of them has a retinue of knights and sworn swords here at court."

"Renly has thirty men in his personal guard, the rest even fewer. It is not enough, even if I could be certain that all of them will choose to give me their allegiance. I must have the gold cloaks. The City Watch is two thousand strong, sworn to defend the castle, the city, and the king's peace."

"Ah, but when the queen proclaims one king and the Hand another, whose peace do they protect?" Lord Petyr flicked at the dagger with his finger, setting it spinning in place. Round and round it went, wobbling as it turned. When at last it slowed to a stop, the blade pointed at Littlefinger. "Why, there's your answer," he said, smiling. "They follow the man who pays them." He leaned back and looked Ned full in the face, his grey-green eyes bright with mockery. "You wear your honor like a suit of armor, Stark. You think it keeps you safe, but all it does is weigh you down and make it hard for you to move. Look at you now. You know why you summoned me here. You know what you want to ask me to do. You know it has to be done . . . but it's not honorable, so the words stick in your throat."

Ned's neck was rigid with tension. For a moment he was so angry that he did not trust himself to speak.

Littlefinger laughed. "I ought to make you say it, but that would be cruel . . . so have no fear, my good lord. For the sake of the love I bear for Catelyn, I will go to Janos Slynt this very hour and make certain that the City Watch is yours. Six thousand gold pieces should do it. A third for the Commander, a third for the officers, a third for the men. We might be able to buy them for half that much, but I prefer not to take chances." Smiling, he plucked up the dagger and offered it to Ned, hilt first.

My reading of this passage suggests Petyr knew perfectly well that The Ned would not accept such a proposal, and I believe the author included it to develop the rich juxtaposition of these two characters. Now, if you refuse to believe that any interpretation but yours makes sense, then I suppose there’s no need to discuss it any further, because your conclusion must be correct, and all of the readers who assume that Petyr never intended to work with Eddard, like me, are dullards.

I'm certainly sure that Littlefinger had no inclination whatsoever to marry Lysa and take over the Vale while there was still a chance that he could regain Catelyn. And if you check the books you will realize that he actually wants to be send to Riverrun as Joff's envoy to treat with Robb and Catelyn, trying to make peace between the Lannisters and the Starks. At that point he may still have hoped to marry Catelyn and become Robb's stepfather just as he later marries Lysa and becomes Robert's stepfather.

Wha . . .? Um . . . where the heck was that? When did he ask King or council to go to Riverrun to treat with Robb and Catelyn? Please be very specific now . . .

Of course, if it had turned out that Cat was receptive to his advances (and he makes advances to her, quite subtly, of course, but they are there when Cat meets in him in AGoT) Ned would eventually have suffered the same fate as Jon Arryn, with Catelyn and Petyr murdering him together, or Littlefinger taking him out with Cat's silent approval or behind her back.

OK, here is the passage where Catelyn meets Petyr, again tagged as spoilers for length . . .

He was alone in the room, seated at a heavy wooden table, an oil lamp beside him as he wrote. When they ushered her inside, he set down his pen and looked at her. "Cat," he said quietly.

"Why have I been brought here in this fashion?"

He rose and gestured brusquely to the guards. "Leave us." The men departed. "You were not mistreated, I trust," he said after they had gone. "I gave firm instructions." He noticed her bandages. "Your hands . . . "

Catelyn ignored the implied question. "I am not accustomed to being summoned like a serving wench," she said icily. "As a boy, you still knew the meaning of courtesy."

"I've angered you, my lady. That was never my intent." He looked contrite. The look brought back vivid memories for Catelyn. He had been a sly child, but after his mischiefs he always looked contrite; it was a gift he had. The years had not changed him much. Petyr had been a small boy, and he had grown into a small man, an inch or two shorter than Catelyn, slender and quick, with the sharp features she remembered and the same laughing grey-green eyes. He had a little pointed chin beard now, and threads of silver in his dark hair, though he was still shy of thirty. They went well with the silver mockingbird that fastened his cloak. Even as a child, he had always loved his silver.

"How did you know I was in the city?" she asked him.

"Lord Varys knows all," Petyr said with a sly smile. "He will be joining us shortly, but I wanted to see you alone first. It has been too long, Cat. How many years?"

Catelyn ignored his familiarity. There were more important questions. "So it was the King's Spider who found me."

Littlefinger winced. "You don't want to call him that. He's very sensitive. Comes of being an eunuch, I imagine. Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Oftimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them. One of his little birds heard about your visit. Thankfully, Varys came to me first."

"Why you?"

He shrugged. "Why not me? I am master of coin, the king's own councillor. Selmy and Lord Renly rode north to meet Robert, and Lord Stannis is gone to Dragonstone, leaving only Maester Pycelle and me. I was the obvious choice. I was ever a friend to your sister Lysa, Varys knows that."

"Does Varys know about . . . "

"Lord Varys knows everything . . . except why you are here." He lifted an eyebrow. "Why are you here?"

"A wife is allowed to yearn for her husband, and if a mother needs her daughters close, who can tell her no?"

Littlefinger laughed. "Oh, very good, my lady, but please don't expect me to believe that. I know you too well. What were the Tully words again?"

Her throat was dry. "Family, Duty, Honor," she recited stiffly. He did know her too well.

"Family, Duty, Honor," he echoed. "All of which required you to remain in Winterfell, where our Hand left you. No, my lady, something has happened. This sudden trip of yours bespeaks a certain urgency. I beg of you, let me help. Old sweet friends should never hesitate to rely upon each other." There was a soft knock on the door. "Enter," Littlefinger called out.

The man who stepped through the door was plump, perfumed, powdered, and as hairless as an egg. He wore a vest of woven gold thread over a loose gown of purple silk, and on his feet were pointed slippers of soft velvet. "Lady Stark," he said, taking her hand in both of his, "to see you again after so many years is such a joy." His flesh was soft and moist, and his breath smelled of lilacs. "Oh, your poor hands. Have you burned yourself, sweet lady? The fingers are so delicate . . . Our good Maester Pycelle makes a marvelous salve, shall I send for a jar?"

Catelyn slid her fingers from his grasp. "I thank you, my lord, but my own Maester Luwin has already seen to my hurts."

Varys bobbed his head. "I was grievous sad to hear about your son. And him so young. The gods are cruel."

"On that we agree, Lord Varys," she said. The title was but a courtesy due him as a council member; Varys was lord of nothing but the spiderweb, the master of none but his whisperers.

The eunuch spread his soft hands. "On more than that, I hope, sweet lady. I have great esteem for your husband, our new Hand, and I know we do both love King Robert."

"Yes," she was forced to say. "For a certainty."

"Never has a king been so beloved as our Robert," quipped Littlefinger. He smiled slyly. "At least in Lord Varys's hearing."

"Good lady," Varys said with great solicitude. "There are men in the Free Cities with wondrous healing powers. Say only the word, and I will send for one for your dear Bran."

"Maester Luwin is doing all that can be done for Bran," she told him. She would not speak of Bran, not here, not with these men. She trusted Littlefinger only a little, and Varys not at all. She would not let them see her grief. "Lord Baelish tells me that I have you to thank for bringing me here."

Varys giggled like a little girl. "Oh, yes. I suppose I am guilty. I hope you forgive me, kind lady." He eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. "I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?"

Catelyn Stark stared at the eunuch in stunned disbelief. He was a spider, she thought wildly, an enchanter or worse. He knew things no one could possibly know, unless . . . "What have you done to Ser Rodrik?" she demanded.

Littlefinger was lost. "I feel rather like the knight who arrives at the battle without his lance. What dagger are we talking about? Who is Ser Rodrik?"

"Ser Rodrik Cassel is master-at-arms at Winterfell," Varys informed him. "I as**sure you, Lady Stark, nothing at all has been done to the good knight. He did call here early this afternoon. He visited with Ser Aron Santagar in the armory, and they talked of a certain dagger. About sunset, they left the castle together and walked to that dreadful hovel where you were staying. They are still there, drinking in the common room, waiting for your return. Ser Rodrik was very distressed to find you gone."

"How could you know all that?"

"The whisperings of little birds," Varys said, smiling. "I know things, sweet lady. That is the nature of my service." He shrugged. "You do have the dagger with you, yes?"

Catelyn pulled it out from beneath her cloak and threw it down on the table in front of him. "Here. Perhaps your little birds will whisper the name of the man it belongs to."

Varys lifted the knife with exaggerated delicacy and ran a thumb along its edge. Blood welled, and he let out a squeal and dropped the dagger back on the table.

"Careful," Catelyn told him, "it's sharp."

"Nothing holds an edge like Valyrian steel," Littlefinger said as Varys sucked at his bleeding thumb and looked at Catelyn with sullen admonition. Littlefinger hefted the knife lightly in his hand, testing the grip. He flipped it in the air, caught it again with his other hand. "Such sweet balance. You want to find the owner, is that the reason for this visit? You have no need of Ser Aron for that, my lady. You should have come to me."

"And if I had," she said, "what would you have told me?"

"I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King's Landing." He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. "It's mine."

"Yours?" It made no sense. Petyr had not been at Winterfell.

"Until the tourney on Prince Joffrey's name day," he said, crossing the room to wrench the dagger from the wood. "I backed Ser Jaime in the jousting, along with half the court." Petyr's sheepish grin made him look half a boy again. "When Loras Tyrell unhorsed him, many of us became a trifle poorer. Ser Jaime lost a hundred golden dragons, the queen lost an emerald pendant, and I lost my knife. Her Grace got the emerald back, but the winner kept the rest."

"Who?" Catelyn demanded, her mouth dry with fear. Her fingers ached with remembered pain.

"The Imp," said Littlefinger as Lord Varys watched her face. "Tyrion Lannister."

So please point out for me where Petyr was hitting on Catelyn . . . The only other direct interaction we see between Catelyn and Petyr is in the presence of Eddard, when Catelyn tells Petyr that she has found the brother she thought she had lost. Please, does that really suggest to you that he was hitting on her? Or does it suggest that he was attempting to gain her trust so that he might bring down her house?

People usually overlook the fact that Littlefinger has no way to predict the future. Back when Jon Arryn was murdered he may have quite different goals he wanted to achieve with the letter Lysa sent then he later eventually did. Being stuck with Lysa certainly wasn't the plan. Just imagine what would have happened had Tyrion/Cersei sent Littlefinger to treat with Robb and Cat. He would have sent a raven from Riverrun to Lysa, and the Lords of the Vale would have come to their aid, and they would have crushed the Lannisters.

Eventually Littlefinger is content with just taking Sansa as his replacement Catelyn, but that was also a complete coincidence. If Cat's daughters had both remained at Winterfell he would have never seen or fallen in love with Sansa, and subsequently there wouldn't have been no 'new Catelyn' to (partially) replace the old Catelyn in his heart.

If Ned had been the one who gave Littlefinger Sansa's hand in marriage I actually think he would have been very grateful and not prone to betray him the next day. Perhaps a week later or so, but certainly not in the near future. This would have given Littlefinger the future and life he always wanted as a boy. He is not yet that old, after all.

Do you really believe that Littlefinger ever believed that Lord Eddard would ever have given him the hand of his daughter?

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, my speculation is more in line with what George actually said about Littlefinger. You know, that he actually loves Catelyn, and thinks she loved him and fucked him, too, back in the day. That is why he challenged Brandon to the duel. He actually thought Cat wanted to marry him, and was only going along with that because of the whole family, duty, honor thing.

More importantly, George has already enlightened us on Littlefinger's feelings for Sansa. They are threefold. A part of Littlefinger sees Sansa as the daughter he and Catelyn could have had (suggesting that Littlefinger hasn't emotionally gotten over the whole Catelyn thing), another part sees Sansa as a (more beautiful) replacement for Catelyn he desires, and a third part considers her as a piece in his political games.

If you break that down Littlefinger's real feelings for Sansa most likely will always win the day. He is never going to sacrifice her.

The idea that Littlefinger wanted to get Ned to KL to kill him makes no sense at all. Eventually Ned became an obstacle and a problem but only after he rejected Littlefinger's offer in the night of Robert's death. If you check AGoT then Littlefinger isn't exactly very close with the Lannisters in that book - there is not textual evidence that he is as close to them as he soon grows to Ned, especially in light of the fact that pretty much no Lannister is in an actual position of power at court (i.e. involved directly in the government of the Realm).

Littlefinger ends up in the unique position to help Cersei secure Joff's rise to the throne, thus buying himself into camp Lannister. But that was just an accident of history, really. You know, if Eddard Stark had never found out the truth about Cersei's children and Cersei had still murdered Robert (say, during that melee) then Ned himself had put Robert's crown on Joffrey's head, and would have supported his best friend's sons in his war against the pretenders Stannis and Renly.

I'm certainly sure that Littlefinger had no inclination whatsoever to marry Lysa and take over the Vale while there was still a chance that he could regain Catelyn. And if you check the books you will realize that he actually wants to be send to Riverrun as Joff's envoy to treat with Robb and Catelyn, trying to make peace between the Lannisters and the Starks. At that point he may still have hoped to marry Catelyn and become Robb's stepfather just as he later marries Lysa and becomes Robert's stepfather.

Of course, if it had turned out that Cat was receptive to his advances (and he makes advances to her, quite subtly, of course, but they are there when Cat meets in him in AGoT) Ned would eventually have suffered the same fate as Jon Arryn, with Catelyn and Petyr murdering him together, or Littlefinger taking him out with Cat's silent approval or behind her back.

People usually overlook the fact that Littlefinger has no way to predict the future. Back when Jon Arryn was murdered he may have quite different goals he wanted to achieve with the letter Lysa sent then he later eventually did. Being stuck with Lysa certainly wasn't the plan. Just imagine what would have happened had Tyrion/Cersei sent Littlefinger to treat with Robb and Cat. He would have sent a raven from Riverrun to Lysa, and the Lords of the Vale would have come to their aid, and they would have crushed the Lannisters.

Eventually Littlefinger is content with just taking Sansa as his replacement Catelyn, but that was also a complete coincidence. If Cat's daughters had both remained at Winterfell he would have never seen or fallen in love with Sansa, and subsequently there wouldn't have been no 'new Catelyn' to (partially) replace the old Catelyn in his heart.

If Ned had been the one who gave Littlefinger Sansa's hand in marriage I actually think he would have been very grateful and not prone to betray him the next day. Perhaps a week later or so, but certainly not in the near future. This would have given Littlefinger the future and life he always wanted as a boy. He is not yet that old, after all.

As to the Faceless Man mystery:

There is indeed no good explanation how the Jaqen guy ended up in the black cells. If he ended up there against his own will then I really only think Varys could have put him there - and he would have been the one allowing Yoren 'to find' him in the black cells and take him out because, you know, Rugen is in charge of those cells. Littlefinger has nothing to do with the management of prisoners.

If Jaqen's mission in Oldtown is a job he is doing on behalf of the House of Black and White - which certainly is a possibility - then it is strange that he tried to get there via KL and is captured there for some unknown reason.

The idea that Jaqen could be another face of Syrio Forel is tempting (after all, Trant could just have taken him prisoner and subsequently thrown him into the dungeons where Syrio then stole the face of another prisoner to disappear) but it makes no sense that he would spend time in the service of the Starks if he already has another mission in Oldtown.

Varys/Illyrio could also be the very few people who have the means to actually break the Faceless Man. Say, Jaqen was sent a decade or two decades ago by some disgruntled Pentoshi nobleman after Varys, but Varys caught him and tortured him beneath the Red Keep for years. Such a man might now be willing to do anything he asks, Faceless Man or not (on the other hand - Jaqen doesn't appear to be broken so that's perhaps not the case).

I think this whole scenario is a mess, really. George had no clue who Jaqen was when he first introduced him, and he only developed into a Faceless Man during the writing process of ACoK. A good explanation as to why a man like him ended up in a black cell will be very difficult to find. Not to mention that he is killing time at Harrenhal rather than trying to get to Oldtown as quickly as possible.

Jaqen's mission in Oldtown most certainly has to do with the dragonlore books stored there, and since one of them is called 'The Death of the Dragons' it is quite clear what this is about. The question that remains is: Who wants to kill the dragons? The Faceless Men themselves, or somebody they are working for? In light of the fact that they most likely caused the Doom my guess is that they want to finish the thing for good and kill both Dany and the dragons. In fact, I've long entertained the idea that Arya's mission will be the kill Daenerys and the dragons once she has finished her training. Sending her back to Westeros would be rather cheep, especially since she can't kill many of the people she actually hates due to the code of the Faceless Men. And the idea that they let her off the hook and allow her to go back home after she has seen their secrets makes no sense.

The dusky woman being a Faceless Man isn't my idea, by the way. That's a very old idea. And even if that's crap, she clearly is Euron's agent and reacts very suspiciously when Moqorro arrives and takes over Victarion's care. Not to mention that she also was the one who treated his wound before - the maester looked at it, but it was the dusky woman who did the bandaging. She had the best opportunity to ensure that the wound would fester/not heal, eventually killing Victarion. And if Euron has a Faceless Man in his service, why the hell should we assume he would let him go? If he can enslave warlocks, there is no reason to assume he cannot also enslave Faceless Men, right?

And Euron has to have somebody he can trust to ensure that Victarion doesn't betray him. He has Dragonbinder now, and the Iron Fleet. If Vic gets a hand on Daenerys then the tables could actually quite easily be turned on Euron. And he is not as stupid to allow that to happen.

Marrying Catlyn after convincing Lysa to kill Jon Aryn would have been a very risky move.  A spurned woman, who is already crazy.  She would be entirely liable to just start telling everyone exactly what happened.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jiminy Cricket LV, That was over 1,400 words! Did ya stay up all night typing that response?

We have good reason to believe that Petyr believes that he banged Catelyn when he was inebriated, but that it was actually Lysa who came to him that evening. And we know that he has bragged about his conquest. And we know that he told Lysa that the only woman he ever loved was Catelyn as he gave her a nudge out the Moon Door. Of course that could have been said out of spite, but it is certainly reasonable to presume that Petyr was in love with Catelyn , as you say, “back in the day.” But we do not know that he actually loves Catelyn during the time of Game, Clash and Storm, unless of course you can point us to a particular SSM, where he said that Petyr still loves Catelyn.

 

See, you are assuming that Petyr’s offer to Eddard to help him rule as Joffrey’s regent a few hours before Cersei’s purge began was a genuine offer. However, I do not believe that the offer was genuine, and even if it was, I don’t believe Petyr thought it would be accepted. Rather than just give you my net opinion, here is the passage in spoiler tags for length. This passage follows immediately after Robert returns mortally wounded from the hunt. And for purposes of this discussion, it should be noted that Eddard summoned Petyr; Petyr did not seek out Eddard. . .

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My reading of this passage suggests Petyr knew perfectly well that The Ned would not accept such a proposal, and I believe the author included it to develop the rich juxtaposition of these two characters. Now, if you refuse to believe that any interpretation but yours makes sense, then I suppose there’s no need to discuss it any further, because your conclusion must be correct, and all of the readers who assume that Petyr never intended to work with Eddard, like me, are dullards.

 

Wha . . .? Um . . . where the heck was that? When did he ask King or council to go to Riverrun to treat with Robb and Catelyn? Please be very specific now . . .

 

OK, here is the passage where Catelyn meets Petyr, again tagged as spoilers for length . . .

Hidden Content

So please point out for me where Petyr was hitting on Catelyn . . . The only other direct interaction we see between Catelyn and Petyr is in the presence of Eddard, when Catelyn tells Petyr that she has found the brother she thought she had lost. Please, does that really suggest to you that he was hitting on her? Or does it suggest that he was attempting to gain her trust so that he might bring down her house?

 

Do you really believe that Littlefinger ever believed that Lord Eddard would ever have given him the hand of his daughter?

Nope, I typed that this afternoon. But then, I'm on vacation right now...

Littlefinger uses the past tense when he kills Lysa - but then, Cat is dead by then. Love is, of course, a complex emotion for a man as twisted as Littlefinger, but I think one can make a case that he still loves her after all those years. At least he thinks he does. Or he tells himself he does. After he finally sees Cat again in KL he most likely soon realizes that this is no longer the case.

We see no direct advances in the short conversation between her and Littlefinger before Varys arrives - but then, the little birds would be listening, so he most likely didn't say as much as he wanted to - but her certainly is attentive and kind. And later on when Catelyn thanks Petyr for all that he has done for her (and Ned) when Littlefinger brings him to her in the brothel he seems to be rather touched by her heartfelt words of gratitude. He hides that behind a joke, of course (the one about him trying to build himself a reputation of ruthlessness), but such words could really moved him.

Of course, at that point Ned would clearly be a rival, so he isn't really a potential ally of his. But then, again, at that point he has not yet seen Sansa.

I'm not as naive as to believe that Littlefinger wasn't willing to betray Ned when he laid out his plans. But he was very open and sincere there, listing all the pros and cons of Stannis vs. Joffrey, and actually being very honest and outspoken about why the hell he, personally, could never support a King Stannis (the whole stuff about Stannis giving the Realm a new council!). Ned could have picked up on that.

And I actually believe there is a good chance that he shot himself in the foot there, not foreseeing Ned bringing up the dagger story as a reason why the hell they couldn't support Joffrey for the time being.

Remember, all Littlefinger himself actually did was prompting Lysa to write the letter, and later lie about the dagger. Now, why did he do that?

The letter served two purposes: Deflect suspicion about the murder of Jon Arryn away from Lysa and him, and ensure that Ned would accept the offer to become Robert's Hand and he and Catelyn would come to KL. Littlefinger had no way to foresee or know about the details of the attempt on Bran. In combination with the letter and eventually the second attempt on Bran's life Ned and Cat's mistrust of the Lannister became ever greater, which had basically nothing to do with Littlefinger nor was it controlled or arranged by him.

When Cat arrives with the dagger Littlefinger claims that Tyrion won the dagger before he even knows what he was used for or what was done with it. Being smart, he most likely guesses that Cat's injuries were caused by it, suggesting some sort of attack/assassination attempt. But he has no clue that this was about Bran, that Bran is Cat's favorite child, or that Bran has seen Cersei and Jaime having sex in Winterfell.

The reason why he does that is, presumably, also twofold. First there is the obvious reason to win Catelyn's trust. He knows she has read the letter Lysa sent her in which the Lannisters are accused of a murder. Adding fuel to that makes him look trustworthy and sincere, especially since Cat cannot know that he knows about the letter/dictated it to Lysa. The other reason is to actually prevent Catelyn and Ned reaching the conclusion that Robert was behind whatever was done with the dagger. Littlefinger (and Varys) know who actually won the dagger on that day, and Cat/Ned actually reaching beginning to believe Robert wanted to silence the boy could quickly lead to all sorts of unpleasant things (i.e. most likely a complete fallout between Robert and Ned). This is most likely the reason why Varys keeps quiet about the truth at this point. Tyrion is far away, after all.

Later on Littlefinger outright tells Ned and Cat to forget the damned dagger because, you know, he lied about it and cannot have them finding out about it. Ned cannot confront anyone about it because it could be tracked back to Littlefinger (as Tyrion later does, resulting in the Littlefinger's attempt on Tyrion's life). In my opinion, Littlefinger is sincere there, too. He does not want anyone - and certainly not Catelyn! - to act upon her knowledge about the dagger.

Tyrion's abduction on the road is as a much a problem for Littlefinger as it is for Ned. If Cersei or Robert found out that Littlefinger fed Ned/Cat the idea that Tyrion had done something to Brandon Stark, he would be fried.

The purpose of the dagger story isn't some elaborate longterm mind fuck leading to Littlefinger fully expecting Ned Stark refuse his sincere and politically-savvy offer but just a way to win his and Catelyn's trust. But it spun out of control with Cat arresting Tyrion, Tywin's campaign, and Ned's injury.

Now, what is Littlefinger's game when Jaime confronts Ned because of Tyrion? Superficially it looks like he might have led Ned in a trap there, but if you look closer Littlefinger is very much glued to Ned in this whole thing. If the Lannisters/Robert learned that Littlefinger was the man who was ultimately responsible for Tyrion's arrest he would, again, be fried. Robert indicates that he talked to Littlefinger about this affair, and what little we can gather from his words is that Littlefinger obviously downplayed the whole affair, painting it as if he and Ned had just had some fun in a brothel (he cannot let it slip to Cersei that he and Ned are investigating the king's bastard, can he?).

In that sense, you can certainly read the conversation between Littlefinger and Ned as Littlefinger being honestly pissed in the end that he is throwing away everything now and he is now forced to sell him to Cersei and try to work with her. A very bad position to begin with because, you know, it is far from clear that the Lannisters will prevail. Littlefinger's best buddy at court seems to be Renly, and I think it is quite clear that his plans after Ned's downfall was to actually sell KL and the Iron Throne to Renly as soon as he reached the city - after all, he controlled the City Watch. But one really wonders whether a Renly arriving at KL with a huge army would have given him the rewards he coveted...

Littlefinger's reluctance in betraying Ned is certainly backed by the fact that Cersei herself credits Sansa's betrayal as crucial to her victory. If Littlefinger had already decided to sell Ned to Cersei one should assume that she would have been aware of that sweet fact by the time Sansa went to her in the next morning. In fact, she could have received that information during the night, either before or shortly after Ned's talk with Littlefinger.

Being on vacation right now I don't have access to the books. Talking about my memory only it could be that I confused that with Cersei's memory about Littlefinger offering to marry Sansa himself. Or not. I'll have to search for that later.

And, yeah, I believe Littlefinger might have been able to get Ned to marry Sansa to him. Remember, he said that his price would be modest. Thinking about his usual sense of humor it is quite clear that his price wouldn't have been modest at all. In exchange for his service to set up Ned as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm Littlefinger most likely would have demanded the same he eventually got from Tywin - a great seat - and then eventually Sansa's hand.

Littlefinger's eyes are already fixed on Sansa in AGoT, which means that Joffrey cannot have her, not really. Which may be very well his rationale behind the Renly idea he puts forth - use the Lannisters as pawns until Stannis is dealt with, then get rid of them, and install Renly as king thereafter. Ned would then step down as Regent, Protector, and Hand, of course, allowing Littlefinger to become a grateful Renly's Hand, perfectly suited to marry Sansa Stark.

2 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Marrying Catlyn after convincing Lysa to kill Jon Aryn would have been a very risky move.  A spurned woman, who is already crazy.  She would be entirely liable to just start telling everyone exactly what happened.

Littlefinger has ways to deal with Lysa. He shows that in ASoS. You are right, of course, that this would have to be done with long before he would marry Catelyn, but he would have found a way to do. A crucial part of that would have been to drag Lysa and the Vale into the war and/or back to court.

[Lost Melnibonean]

LV, Your memory could also be a bit confused with the HBO fanfic since in that Petyr did try to kindle (we can't really say rekindle since it was never reciprocated) his love for Catelyn in that story. You shoulda brought your books on vacation--seems like you're due for a reread instead of watching reruns

[finger]

13 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

stuff

It's funny how different people read the same passage in different ways.

LF was making his best to survive. He was an Arryn's man at face value and, after his death and Robert's, he desperately needs someone to support him. He plainly states that Stannis would sack him. He leaves untold that Cersei would name Tywin as hand. In his utmost despair, LF is as candid as it can be, but Ned wouldn't listen. What he was proposing meant life and power, but Ned chooses death, his own fault. LF is left no more than brown-nosing the Lannisters. After all, what did he owe to the Starks, but a huge scar?

When chaos reigns, LF can outmanoeuvre anyone but, in the beginning of the series, he was just trying not to be trodden over by some high lord, as he had since he felt Riverrun.

[finger]

I feel my argument is not complete. I've said what LF didn't try to get, but these are not motives.

He was making a living as Lysa's lover and Arryn's protegee, and all was fine. There are reasons to think that Robert Arryn was actually LF's. Then, Arryn starts messing round with bastardy and planning to have Robert fostered. Probably Lysa panicked and they ended up poisoning him.

There weren't open talks of murder, but when Robert went to WF, LF must have thought it was better to make the Lannisters suspected. Stannis knew of the Arryn's quest and he must have thought it was a Lannisters' deed, since he fled to DS and gather forces.

In this point of the story, LF is just trying to weaken the Lannisters and find a way to go to the Vale. It's the sudden appearance of Sansa that brings up old feelings and memories. Still, LF is powerless until the high lords begin to tear each other apart.

LF obviously thrives on Stark-Lannister enmity, and he searches for it. But he doesn't take for prisoner an innocent who only had designed a saddle for Bran,standing accused for trying to kill him, based on a chat on gambles, without even hearing his defense. Nor he wasted the chance to bring the Tyrels on his side in the fighting against the Lannisters.