Was there any way Stannis could have won Blackwater?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

It seems to me that with Tywin and the Tyrells bearing down on King's Landing, Stannis seems doomed no matter what he does. Even if Imry Florent is no fool and avoids Tyrion's trap, even if the men of King's Landing fall into chaos after Tyrion's wildfyre ambush fails, even if Stannis's outriders survive the mountain clansmen waiting for them, Tywin and his vast army would still arrive in time to destroy Stannis.

It seems to me like the very best case scenario at that point was for Stannis to get word that the Tyrells had linked up with Tywin close to King's Landing and decided to walk away from King's Landing rather than fall prey to their attack. With twenty thousand men and the Royal Fleet, he could certainly provide a dangerous enemy, even if he were outnumbered as he is. Maybe he could return to the Stormlands, gather the rest of his bannermen and fortify it? At least then he'd be in the part of Westeros that was most loyal to him. And even if he went down then, he'd go down after a rigorous fight which would no doubt bleed the Tyrells and Lannisters enough to make a serious dent in their numbers. Maybe the Ironborn decide to strike the Westerlands and Reach sooner than they did in the books? Maybe the Northmen are given a chance to gather their strength and avoid a Red Wedding with Tywin so preoccupied?

[Bryan Stark]

5 minutes ago, King Floki of the Ironborn said:

It seems to me that with Tywin and the Tyrells bearing down on King's Landing, Stannis seems doomed no matter what he does. Even if Imry Florent is no fool and avoids Tyrion's trap, even if the men of King's Landing fall into chaos after Tyrion's wildfyre ambush fails, even if Stannis's outriders survive the mountain clansmen waiting for them, Tywin and his vast army would still arrive in time to destroy Stannis.

It seems to me like the very best case scenario at that point was for Stannis to get word that the Tyrells had linked up with Tywin close to King's Landing and decided to walk away from King's Landing rather than fall prey to their attack. With twenty thousand men and the Royal Fleet, he could certainly provide a dangerous enemy, even if he were outnumbered as he is. Maybe he could return to the Stormlands, gather the rest of his bannermen and fortify it? At least then he'd be in the part of Westeros that was most loyal to him. And even if he went down then, he'd go down after a rigorous fight which would no doubt bleed the Tyrells and Lannisters enough to make a serious dent in their numbers. Maybe the Ironborn decide to strike the Westerlands and Reach sooner than they did in the books? Maybe the Northmen are given a chance to gather their strength and avoid a Red Wedding with Tywin so preoccupied?

It is possible. Stannis's two  biggest mistake was 1) Making Imry Florent the commander of the fleet rather than someone more competent like Seaworth and 2) Not enough Outriders to scout what was going on. 

[Raisin' Bran]

There are a lot of "ifs" in that OP. There were many factors that played a part in Stannis' defeat. Remove enough of those factors and "anyone" (not just the best commander in the 7K) could win that battle.

[RobOsevens]

If Stannis could take KL before Tywin shows up and then hold it and get besieged maybe others would come to his aid, like Robb 

[dariopatke]

If Stannis could take KL before Tywin shows up and then hold it and get besieged maybe others would come to his aid, like Robb 

Tywin will certanly storm KL because Cersei and co are in Red Keep.

Also some else had to be admiral, not Davos though, he isnt more competent but smarter then Imry, admiral shoul be someone like Velaryon.

He needed to have better scouts, if he knew Tyrells are agains him he could have come up with smarter plan such as retreat to SE and maybe make alliance with Dorne(Shireen to wed Quentyn and Martells might help because they would get their revenge, they would weaken Realm,...) attack Reach while Robb is in Westerlands and divide their army, burn their grain fields perhaps.

[tallTale]

Interesting point. I would say not. In fact if he gets deeper into kl and tywin/Tyrells show up he risks getting cut off and not being able to escape at all.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

1 minute ago, dariopatke said:

Tif he knew Tyrells are agains him he could have come up with smarter plan such as retreat to SE and maybe make alliance with Dorne(Shireen to wed Quentyn and Martells might help because they would get their revenge

They wouldn't do that. Myrcella is in Dorne at the time of this happening, and Doran Martell was saving his elder children for the return of the Targaryens. Besides, Stannis is a brother of the Usurper, whose army killed thousands of Dornish at the Trident. Why would they side with Stannis?

If anything Stannis would only have been able to rely upon Robb Stark, and he had problems of his own. Plus Stannis considered Robb his enemy as well, so what's left is basically where he would make his final stand until the ravens come from the Wall, pleading for help. Stannis might decide then that he'll go north, or he ignores it in his attempts to prepare the Stormlands for battle. Who knows.

[RobOsevens]

11 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

Tywin will certanly storm KL because Cersei and co are in Red Keep.

Also some else had to be admiral, not Davos though, he isnt more competent but smarter then Imry, admiral shoul be someone like Velaryon.

He needed to have better scouts, if he knew Tyrells are agains him he could have come up with smarter plan such as retreat to SE and maybe make alliance with Dorne(Shireen to wed Quentyn and Martells might help because they would get their revenge, they would weaken Realm,...) attack Reach while Robb is in Westerlands and divide their army, burn their grain fields perhaps.

Stannis could always use Cersei as a hostage

but he likely would just execute her the kids

[dariopatke]

They wouldn't do that. Myrcella is in Dorne at the time of this happening, and Doran Martell was saving his elder children for the return of the Targaryens. Besides, Stannis is a brother of the Usurper, whose army killed thousands of Dornish at the Trident. Why would they side with Stannis?

If anything Stannis would only have been able to rely upon Robb Stark, and he had problems of his own. Plus Stannis considered Robb his enemy as well, so what's left is basically where he would make his final stand until the ravens come from the Wall, pleading for help. Stannis might decide then that he'll go north, or he ignores it in his attempts to prepare the Stormlands for battle. Who knows.

So what, Myrcella is a good hostage if it is necessary. Then wed Shireen to Trystane, I dont know, they can cancel engagement because bastard abomination and stuff like that.

Stannis is a brother of Usurper, aye. And I ask you is that a crime? He suffered during RR more than Doran and he is in war with Lannisters, their interests are common.

Robb is his foe but Tywin wont rush to Reach to save Tyrell lands when Robb is in his own teritory. He will just use the fact that Robb is there and he is enemy of Lannisters.

Stannis could always use Cersei as a hostage

but he likely would just execute her the kids

Of course, Joff, Tyrion and Lancel too, but he wont make it into RK before Tywin arrives, RK is a castle and biggest part of his army will defend gates and walls. He woild execute all of them only when Tywin is defeated, at least Cersei is too valuable.

[Blackfish Tully]

What Stannis should have done is confront the Tyrells at Bitterbridge . Attacking Kings Landing while the Tyrells were sitting out there with a army of 60,000 was just asking for trouble . 

[RainGhost]

If Stannis manages to take King's Landing before Tywin and the Tyrells get there, then everything changes. Stannis has 20,000 men. Tywin cannot storm KL, at least not without losing a considerable portion of his men and he absolutely cannot afford to do that. Stannis would execute Joffrey, which means the Tyrell deal is off. The Lannisters would be relying on Ironhand's men getting Tommen to Tywin. The deal with the Tyrells could then maybe be reestablished but there's a good chance that the Tyrells will lose their nerve, seeing as the Lannisters have lost King's Landing and still have the Starks raiding the westerlands. Tywin will probably have to abandon King's Landing entirely and head west, or his men might start deserting him to defend their homes.

Don't underestimate the power of holding the Iron Throne. Stannis would now be considered the legitimate king and Tommen the rebel. Robb could make a deal with Stannis. Doran won't oppose him. The Stormlands will be completely under his control. He might even be able to get the Vale to recognise and fight for him (although this may mean putting someone other than Lysa Arryn in control). It's unlikely that the Tyrells will stick with the Lannisters after that - they may even try to make a deal with Stannis. Basically, the Lannisters are pretty screwed in this scenario, and Stannis holds the Iron Throne (at least for a time).

[dariopatke]

What Stannis should have done is confront the Tyrells at Bitterbridge . Attacking Kings Landing while the Tyrells were sitting out there with a army of 60,000 was just asking for trouble . 

This, unexpected attack, plus I see Stannis as better commander than Randyll, some forces might go to Stannis' side after he starts gaining the upper hand in battle (like those Tyroshi at Camps). He would have pretty much same amount of men, maybe even more, but Tywin would arrive to KL and Stannis wont take it by force. Although he doesnt need to do that, KL could hold a month most before it implodes. Tywin had 20k men, Stannis would smash him, too. After that Robb may even bend the knee in exchange for Stannis' help with IB.

If Stannis manages to take King's Landing before Tywin and the Tyrells get there, then everything changes. Stannis has 20,000 men. Tywin cannot storm KL, at least not without losing a considerable portion of his men and he absolutely cannot afford to do that. Stannis would execute Joffrey, which means the Tyrell deal is off. The Lannisters would be relying on Ironhand's men getting Tommen to Tywin. The deal with the Tyrells could then maybe be reestablished but there's a good chance that the Tyrells will lose their nerve, seeing as the Lannisters have lost King's Landing and still have the Starks raiding the westerlands. Tywin will probably have to abandon King's Landing entirely and head west, or his men might start deserting him to defend their homes.

Don't underestimate the power of holding the Iron Throne. Stannis would now be considered the legitimate king and Tommen the rebel. Robb could make a deal with Stannis. Doran won't oppose him. The Stormlands will be completely under his control. He might even be able to get the Vale to recognise and fight for him (although this may mean putting someone other than Lysa Arryn in control). It's unlikely that the Tyrells will stick with the Lannisters after that - they may even try to make a deal with Stannis. Basically, the Lannisters are pretty screwed in this scenario, and Stannis holds the Iron Throne (at least for a time).

Yes, but what can Stannis do to make an alliance with Tyrells? Offer Shireen? What if he gets a son? And if he doesnt Willas will be king in 30,40 years, Stannis is relatively young. In Lannister scenario you have queen within a fortnight.

Nestor Royce would be good Warden of the East and regent in name of Sweetrobin. He ruled the Vale for many years and people seem to like him and probably they would support this. Return them title of Warden and it may work. But with Lysa in power no alliance can be made.

Tywin wont head west in any scenario, he will either besiege KL if he is with Tyrells or be dead if he is against them.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

16 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

This, unexpected attack, plus I see Stannis as better commander than Randyll, some forces might go to Stannis' side after he starts gaining the upper hand in battle (like those Tyroshi at Camps).

A more likely scenario is that the sellswords and Reachmen with Stannis would take one look at the huge Tyrell numbers and switch sides, like what actually happened at the Battle of Blackwater, leaving Stannis with fewer men and hundreds of miles from sea.

Attacking Bitterbridge would be suicide.

[dariopatke]

A more likely scenario is that the sellswords and Reachmen with Stannis would take one look at the huge Tyrell numbers and switch sides, like what actually happened at the Battle of Blackwater, leaving Stannis with fewer men and hundreds of miles from sea.

Attacking Bitterbridge would be suicide.

Difference is that Stannis was being attacked of BW and here he would be an attacker.

Just like Robb vs Jaime, they wont have time to organise and they wo t know who is even attacking and before it is over leaders will be captured. They wont see huge army attacking them, but huge number of men running for their lives. And I see many houses joining Stannis just like many of Stannis' houses joined Garlan at BW.

[Blackfish Tully]

5 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

A more likely scenario is that the sellswords and Reachmen with Stannis would take one look at the huge Tyrell numbers and switch sides, like what actually happened at the Battle of Blackwater, leaving Stannis with fewer men and hundreds of miles from sea.

Attacking Bitterbridge would be suicide.

would you rather face the 60,000 men of the Tyrells in a straight up battle face to face or would you rather have those same 60,000 attack you from behind while you are storming Kings Landing ?

Attacking Bitterbridge is the much safer choice . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

would you rather face the 60,000 men of the Tyrells in a straight up battle face to face or would you rather have those same 60,000 attack you from behind while you are storming Kings Landing ?

Attacking Bitterbridge is the much safer choice . 

Well Stannis would very likely be a prisoner after BB, whereas he safely escaped due to having a mode of transportation unavailable to the IT forces. How "safe" do you want to be?

[Leonardo]

Without Tyrion, Stannis sacks the city and kills Cersei and her brood before Tywin reached the city. Stannis has the navy and therefore cannot even be properly besieged, the Tyrells have no cause to side with the Lannisters and would instead likely try a betrothal between Shireen and Loras or someone, or better yet try to marry Margaery to Robb and then just take the throne by conquest. Robb would probably already be married to Jayne though so moot point.

 

Bottom line, Tyrion saves the city by delaying Stannis for long enough for help to arrive. Just take Tyrion out of the equation and Stannis takes the throne. Hed be inside the city by the time Tywin arrived.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Well Stannis would very likely be a prisoner after BB, whereas he safely escaped due to having a mode of transportation unavailable to the IT forces. How "safe" do you want to be?

If Stannis was only concerned about his personal safety then staying in Storms End is the best choice . If he wants to be King then he is going to have to risk his safety . I would much rather face the Tyrells first and then attack Kings Landing  instead of attacking Kings Landing and having the Tyrells hit me from behind. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

Just now, Blackfish Tully said:

If Stannis was only concerned about his personal safety then staying in Storms End is the best choice . If he wants to be King then he is going to have to risk his safety . I would much rather face the Tyrells first and then attack Kings Landing  instead of attacking Kings Landing and having the Tyrells hit me from behind. 

I'd think Stannis would avoid either if he knew what was going to happen at BW. Going to BB isn't a smart idea by any means.

[Light a wight tonight]

How would Stannis take KL? Too simple. Just take Cat's advice and team up with Renly before starting out. He'd have an unbeatable army and the Tyrells wouldn't be his enemies. Stannis and Renly could sort things out between themselves after the victory was secure. 

Remember how delighted Tyrion and Cersei were when they learned the Brothers Baratheon were fighting each other? ("I thought Robert was the stupid one.") That was a blunder of truly heroic proportions.