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Is LF-Stannis alliance possible?


dariopatke

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In early books LF had no power, no lands and no army, only money and having brothels was crucial to him. Now he has Riverlands, HH and Vale and suddenly his brothels in KL are not his priority. Will he offer army to Stannis if he takes WF and marches south? Cersei is mad and humiliated, Tommen is boy, Kevan dead, could he change his mind about Stannis? What would he in return? Of course he would want to stay Lord of HH, Lord paramount of Riverlands and regent of Sweetrobin, but I assume he will want something more and what would that be?

And equally important question, would Stannis accept him?

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While not technically impossible. I think its very very unlikely.

Stannis already disliked LF before the war, but after helping the lannisters he's probably set on wanting to execute LF.

If stannis makes it south he's more likely to want to ally with the lords declarant in vale and BWB and or tully loyalists in riverlands.

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1) His hold on HH is practically nil unless the IT backs up his claim. The Riverlands likely won't accept him either as he's a Valeman. He does have a power bloc in the Vale.

2) Stannis is pragmatic to an extent, but I have trouble seeing himself ally with LF. That's if he marches south anyway, which I don't see him doing in the worst winter in living memory. Not that I think Stannis will die outside of WF, but I don't expect anyone currently in the North to come back south.

Stannis told Davos he meant to scour the court clean. I don't think LF would have been immune from that.

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Baelish will not be able to get anything from Stannis.  And I do not think there are many in the Vale that are especially loyal to LF either (Nestor Royce MAY be his only reliable ally). When the Lannisters in KL lose the throne, Petyr will not have any real support and, most likely, will have to take increasingly drastic steps to keep power, exposing him more for what he is.

I also do not believe that Stannis will leave the North, nor most of his host. So this theoretical exercise will remain only that, theoretical. Of course many of these threads are what-if scenarios.

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It might be the somewhat wise thing for Stannis to accept an alliance with Littlefinger but he wanted to cleanse the Small Council. And Littlefinger doesn't have anything this appealing to bring on the table. He's just Lysa's widow, without any great personal loyalty from anyone in the Vale.

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Unless LF brings something really good to the table, i don't think Stannis would accept an alliance with him.

LF would accept any profitable alliance, doesn't mean that he won't betray his "friend" though. If this alliance ever happened i expect LF to remove Stannis after he's no longer of use to him

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There's a lot more to LF than what we see through Ned, Sansa and Tyrion.  We don't see his interactions with Braavos, for example.  But I suspect that LF serves the IB, and most of his persona is a cover.  If the IB is supporting Stannis for king, and not just screwing with the Lannisters by making them open a Northern front, then they are allies.  

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They both seem like the type that uses people to achieve their goals and then discards them, rather than the type that forms true alliances. 

I'm not saying that makes them any better or worse than anyone else playing the game. I just think they both have very specific things they mean to accomplish, and neither is going to allow anything to derail those plans as long as they are breathing. They might join forces temporarily if they found themselves trying to ford the same political river, but that's about it. 

It probably makes them better bets in the long run. Truly believing in allies hasn't worked out great so far for anyone, except ... uhh... wait, I'll come back when I think of an example.

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Sure, if Littlefinger had all those assets you claim he has, Stannis would marry him in a heartbeat. Contrary to what his fans say, he has no standards. Remember all those harsh words about the absolutely worstest traitors, real scum, who threw in their lots with Renly? Stannis took their swords in a heartbeat, no question asked. And Salladhor Saan, literally a pirate. Even bankers. So if Littlefinger could provide substantial services, he'd be most welcome in Stannis' camp.

But he can't. The Riverlands? Maybe on paper, people there don't even know his name. Harrenhal? A huge money pit. The Vale? Maybe in a few years of hard work, if everything goes his way and no wrench spoils his plan (nyah har har). For now, Littlefinger counts it as a big win when he's allowed to get some food delivered. For now, except for his money, he has a very impressive nothing wrapped in shiny, important-sounding titles. So he doesn't bring to the table nothing Stannis doesn't have already.

And I don't see Littlefinger very keen on that alliance, either. It looks like a high-risk, low-yield investment.

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Would never happen. Stannis wouldn't work with him because he hates him, blames him for a bunch of shit, and wouldn't trust a word that comes out of his mouth. And Littlefinger knows that, which is why he's been dead-set against Stannis from the beginning.

I'm not sure they'll ever interact though, or if this is a scenario that either gives any thought to.

 

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On 9.02.2016 at 4:33 PM, The Drunkard said:

Would never happen. Stannis wouldn't work with him because he hates him, blames him for a bunch of shit, and wouldn't trust a word that comes out of his mouth.

Sounds like most of people Stannis has worked with (while gritting his teeth, but still). You think any of that would stop Stannis from accepting Littlefinger's pledge, if LF could deliver ten thousand swords? The real deal-breaker here is, Littlefinger doesn't have ten thousand swords. He has maybe sword futures, sword options, sword default swaps, collateralized sword obligations, and other insane sword derivatives.

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Sounds like most of people Stannis has worked with (while gritting his teeth, but still). You think any of that would stop Stannis from accepting Littlefinger's pledge, if LF could deliver ten thousand swords? The real deal-breaker here is, Littlefinger doesn't have ten thousand swords. He has maybe sword futures, sword options, sword default swaps, collateralized sword obligations, and other insane sword derivatives.

Well, Bronze Yohn is prowar and most of the Vale hate Lannisters and some of them simpathyse with Starks and Stannis is their biggest supporter now. Lords might do this not because they love LF but because they want it. Once when they are with Stannis LF can not scheem any longer because Lords will absolutely not switch sides. But will LF acceptfor that? What is the mostStannis would offer him? If he refuses will Stannis proclaim Sweetrobin adult and make him raise banners?

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1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Sounds like most of people Stannis has worked with (while gritting his teeth, but still). You think any of that would stop Stannis from accepting Littlefinger's pledge, if LF could deliver ten thousand swords?

Yes. Even if Stannis were to swallow his personal distaste and pardon him, he's still not going to trust him or his offer. Especially not given that in this scenario Littlefinger would have betrayed literally everyone who ever assisted or empowered him. 

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