if R+L=J is true...

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

2 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Because Very Important People (like the Young Wolf and his sister) and Very Important Events (like Robb's campaign, the Red Wedding, the Purple Wedding) are in the center of everyone's attention. Jon Snow barely registers. Lyanna Stark was mentioned, in non-Stark POVs, barely four times in the entire series (one of them only because Robert had named one of his warship after her).

 

This explains why - the kidnapping of Lyanna is not a Current Very Important Event - but it was 15 years before.  Young people who were children back then probably don't know anything about her, but political movers and shakers from that time frame certainly would have been very aware of every family member in the families of all the Lords Paramount.  My idea is that this was a rumor that probably went around for a while after Jon Snow was born, but since there was no confirmation and smart people knew there wouldn't be, it wasn't the topic of much conversation for long - but not forgotten.  Now that Jon Snow is a very notable player in Westerosi politics, people who thought about it 15 years before would say "Hey, isn't that the kid that is supposedly Ned Stark's bastard that we used to think might actually be the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna?"

[RoamingRonin]

1 minute ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

I argue that it's not a flaw.  An absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  Just because we haven't seen the thoughts of someone thinking "I wonder if Rhaegar got Lyanna pregnant" doesn't mean that nobody has ever thought that…

If GRRM hasn't written this character into the story that means that character does not exist.

It is definitely a flaw because while it took us readers to see Ned's honor would prevent him from fathering a bastard, everyone in the story already knows that about him. Robert knows it best. Robert, who believes Rhaegar raped Lyanna multiple times, hears Ned has gone back to Winterfell with a child?

At least have the question be posed: "Is that Lyanna's?" "No, he is mine..."

1 minute ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Because Very Important People (like the Young Wolf and his sister) and Very Important Events (like Robb's campaign, the Red Wedding, the Purple Wedding) are in the center of everyone's attention. Jon Snow barely registers. Lyanna Stark was mentioned, in non-Stark POVs, barely four times in the entire series (one of them only because Robert had named one of his warship after her).

Except Robert's Rebellion was just as important as all of those events during it's time. Considering the guy on the Sisters - a super minor character - recalls Ned fathering Jon on some random girl - and the servants at Winterfell gossping and whispering, the minor characters are well known to speculate all sorts of possibilities.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

4 minutes ago, RoamingRonin said:

If GRRM hasn't written this character into the story that means that character does not exist.

It is definitely a flaw because while it took us readers to see Ned's honor would prevent him from fathering a bastard, everyone in the story already knows that about him. Robert knows it best. Robert, who believes Rhaegar raped Lyanna multiple times, hears Ned has gone back to Winterfell with a child?

At least have the question be posed: "Is that Lyanna's?" "No, he is mine..."

 

But what would be the literary purpose of GRRM informing readers of this old rumor?  Why would Robert not ask Ned about it until 15 years later?  In all likelihood, he asked him years ago, and Ned said no, and Robert either believed it or didn't believe it.  That's simple and logical, right?  It would be bad writing to have Robert ask Ned that 15 years after the fact, don't you think?

It would be like Robert asking Ned "Can I trust you to behead Theon if Balon rebels?"  That's something he would have asked years ago, having him ask it again now would be transparent and unrealistic exposition.  There were better, more subtle ways to reveal that Theon was a hostage and not just a ward, and because that was an important thing for the readers to know at that stage in the story, it was revealed.  Why is it important for readers to know Robert suspected that Jon Snow might not be Ned's son?  If it was important, why not have Ned, in one of his POV chapters, think about it?

[RoamingRonin]

Just now, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

But what would be the literary purpose of GRRM informing readers of this old rumor?  Why would Robert not ask Ned about it until 15 years later?  In all likelihood, he asked him years ago, and Ned said no, and Robert either believed it or didn't believe it.  That's simple and logical, right?  It would be bad writing to have Robert ask Ned that 15 years after the fact, don't you think?

But that's exactly what happens when Catelyn recalls the rumors of the servants whispering in Winterfell. Like I said, it's just a flaw in the structure of the story. You don't see it until you put it all together.

For example: Catelyn frets that Robb will make Jon his heir. After Robb sends off his letter declaring his heir, Catelyn never thinks on the situation again. Why? Because it would give the reader the answer. It could be that he didn't name Jon at all. But Catelyn never dwells on the relief (or dread) after it's done. 

Ned, as I said before, thinks about Lyanna and Rhaegar but he never thinks once that, "Jon ain't my kid." Which is something you'd think would come up in while he's commiserating on previous events.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

Just now, RoamingRonin said:

But that's exactly what happens when Catelyn recalls the rumors of the servants whispering in Winterfell. Like I said, it's just a flaw in the structure of the story. You don't see it until you put it all together.

For example: Catelyn frets that Robb will make Jon his heir. After Robb sends off his letter declaring his heir, Catelyn never thinks on the situation again. Why? Because it would give the reader the answer. It could be that he didn't name Jon at all. But Catelyn never dwells on the relief (or dread) after it's done. 

Ned, as I said before, thinks about Lyanna and Rhaegar but he never thinks once that, "Jon ain't my kid." Which is something you'd think would come up in while he's commiserating on previous events.

It is important to the story to reveal that Catelyn is concerned that Jon is a threat to her own children, because it explains why she treats him the way she does.  It also serves the literary purpose of showing that Ned lied to Catelyn about Jon's origins.

[kimim]

11 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

It is important to the story to reveal that Catelyn is concerned that Jon is a threat to her own children, because it explains why she treats him the way she does.  It also serves the literary purpose of showing that Ned lied to Catelyn about Jon's origins.

It's also revealing that Cat, who is not as innocent as a Stark when it comes to games, never once assumes that Ned is lying when he says he is the father. She knows her husband better than anyone. She knows the timing of everything. Yet she doesn't suspect. There is no evidence that People Who Know Everything--Varys, LF--are including the existence of Rhaegar's son in their plans. It's a bit weird, but it fits the Northern theme. Very important stuff is happening up there. The Walker-zombie apocalypse is nigh. Rhaegar's son is the LC. Yet no one seems to care, as they're too enthralled by their own gaming in the south.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

Just now, kimim said:

It's also revealing that Cat, who is not as innocent as a Stark when it comes to games, never once assumes that Ned is lying when he says he is the father. She knows her husband better than anyone. She knows the timing of everything. Yet she doesn't suspect. There is no evidence that People Who Know Everything--Varys, LF--are including the existence of Rhaegar's son in their plans. It's a bit weird, but it fits the Northern theme. Very important stuff is happening up there. The Walker-zombie apocalypse is nigh. Rhaegar's son is the LC. Yet no one seems to care, as they're too enthralled by their own gaming in the south.

Catelyn has 15 years to come to terms with the various rumors of Jon's origins.  She also loves Ned, and thus is more likely to believe his lies than anybody else.  She probably heard the rumors, but the fact that Ned himself tells her, "No, I am the father, and don't ask about it anymore" convinced her that they were just rumors.    I believe that subconsciously she still attaches some weight to the rumors, but the possibility of them being true are just too terrible for her to consider.  First, it would mean that her beloved husband has been lying to her for 15 years - it would really shake her worldview to accept that.  Secondly, the idea that she might be harboring a Targaryan bastard in the same household her own children live in would be terrifying to her.  We know full well why Ned lies to her - and we know why she would choose to believe it.  But I think her animosity to Jon may be enhanced by a subconscious fear that he is far more dangerous to her legacy than just another bastard.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

58 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

I argue that it's not a flaw.  An absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  Just because we haven't seen the thoughts of someone thinking "I wonder if Rhaegar got Lyanna pregnant" doesn't mean that nobody has ever thought that…

The only thing, to me, is that if GRRM wants us, the readers, to understand that Rhaegar and Lyanna having had a baby together is fairly common knowledge among the Westerosi nobility, then he would have given us reasons to have that understanding. I'm just (and this only applies to me) really really leery of assuming things about the world of Westeros that aren't actually written into the books. It's GRRM's world; if he wants us to understand something about it, he'll write it into the books, even if only obliquely.

Instead, what he actually HAS done is have a handful of people speculate on Jon's parentage and not a single one of them includes either Rhaegar or Lyanna, separately or together. That just doesn't look to me as if GRRM is conveying to us the idea that a baby from those two is "widely known". There needs to be an in-world reason to believe that to be true and all the in-world evidence is the opposite.

So, there actually isn't an absence of evidence. There is a fair amount of evidence and all of it points to nobody connecting a baby to Rhaegar and Lyanna. 

Of course, you are absolutely at liberty to believe as you like but I am not going to be convinced unless GRRM writes it. As to your contention which is under discussion here, GRRM has written it - and it's the opposite of what you are proposing.

Edited to add: I'm just repeating myself here, so if you want to ignore this post feel free. I really don't have anything new to say about this. 

[kimim]

24 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

Catelyn has 15 years to come to terms with the various rumors of Jon's origins.  She also loves Ned, and thus is more likely to believe his lies than anybody else.  

...but there are no rumors of Jon's origins that do not have Ned as the father, so she doesn't need to come to terms with any of that. Like everyone else that we meet, she believes that Ned is Jon's father. Plenty of people question/joke about Jon's mother. No one ever questions Ned as father. If there were rumors flying about Jon's father, you would think someone--Tyrion, LF, Varys, Stannis, Cersei, Robert, Edric, the Boltons--would have brought them up. They don't. Jokes and curiosity always center around the identity of the mother. That fits everything else that's going on. Here's Rhaegar's son, trying to battle the apocalyptic zombies and ice demons, and no one gives a damn, they're so involved in their games.

[Neolaina]

On 2/1/2016 at 9:06 AM, house of dayne said:

if R+L=J, how come it never occurs as a possibility to any of the characters...i mean, Lyanna is very publicly abducted by Rhaegar...it sparks a civil war in the 7K.. when Ned goes to retrieve her, he returns instead with a mystery baby...the timeline for a Lyanna pregnancy is obviously well established and cements the possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna could easily had time to bear a child...and yet no one seems to entertain the notion that Jon might be their child, no one does the math...not Cat in her bitterness, not Robert obsessed with the extinction of all Targaryen heirs, not Varys with all his little birds, not even Twywin who surely would have been concerned about the possibility of a surviving Targ to avenge his own murder of the Targ children...Tyrion, a veritable historian of the 7K, does not even have the idea cross his mind when he meets him...even the Stark children seem to have no rumours to Jons parentage and none consider that hes is the son of R+L...certainly it would seem that none of the Northern lords considers it a possibility, he is accepted as Neds son...though Ned is honourable man whose word counts for much, everyone really only has his word for it and there is no evidence that his underlings ever gossiped behind his back...

1) Ned fought very hard to craft a narrative that would suitably cover every avenue of curiosity. Including choosing to dishonour his own marriage vows by claiming Jon was his bastard. For him, that wasn't an easy thing to do. That said, it makes me wonder why you think people would automatically assume this bastard is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Why would people's minds go there? Who knew she was pregnant? No one, save a bunch of dead men. If no one's considering that as a possibility, then Ned's succeeding in keeping the promise we presume he made to Lyanna.

As for the slew of people you've mentioned, Cat would have been consumed thinking about Ned's infidelity - something she still does in the present, Rob would have been consumed by grief over Lyanna's death - something he still does in the present, etc. If Ned claims Jon as his own, and there's only one person left alive to make a rebuttal - Howland Reed - and that person won't, then, lines of inquiry go nowhere quickly.

2) Who would make that claim? Who could actually prove that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's kid? Who would have known Lyanna was pregnant, if the realm didn't know where she was. We don't know who knew. We don't know if she had nurses, or handmaidens, or anything. We don't know. And we know way more than the realm seems to. And judging by the realm, it's clear it was only a handful of people, most of whom died at the Tower of Joy. Rumours mean little unless something or someone can corroborate them. Everyone else involved was occupied with other things they may have felt more important. Tywin, for example, would have been thinking about a Lannister presence in KL as well as amassing power. Tyrion was a kid or a teenager, whatever. Varys would have been focused on the war, on the safety of King's Landing. No one would have been thinking about the possibility of Rhaegar and Lyanna having a child.

In other words, for what reason would anyone in-universe expect that a son Ned Stark claims is a bastard - conflicting sources of the mother, to boot, again due to rumour - to be anything else than what Ned Stark says he is?

The only place we, the reader, gain any real sense of Jon's lineage is through Ned's PoV from AGoT. The realm doesn't even seem to know that Lyanna was pregnant. Only that she died. 

Finally, if anyone did have that thought, they clearly kept it to themselves.

And as for Varys? Well, having a little bird at the Tower of Joy would have been a little suspect, neh?

 

[purple-eyes]

39 minutes ago, Neolaina said:

1) Ned fought very hard to craft a narrative that would suitably cover every avenue of curiosity. Including choosing to dishonour his own marriage vows by claiming Jon was his bastard. For him, that wasn't an easy thing to do. That said, it makes me wonder why you think people would automatically assume this bastard is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Why would people's minds go there? Who knew she was pregnant? No one, save a bunch of dead men. If no one's considering that as a possibility, then Ned's succeeding in keeping the promise we presume he made to Lyanna.

As for the slew of people you've mentioned, Cat would have been consumed thinking about Ned's infidelity - something she still does in the present, Rob would have been consumed by grief over Lyanna's death - something he still does in the present, etc. If Ned claims Jon as his own, and there's only one person left alive to make a rebuttal - Howland Reed - and that person won't, then, lines of inquiry go nowhere quickly.

2) Who would make that claim? Who could actually prove that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's kid? Who would have known Lyanna was pregnant, if the realm didn't know where she was. We don't know who knew. We don't know if she had nurses, or handmaidens, or anything. We don't know. And we know way more than the realm seems to. And judging by the realm, it's clear it was only a handful of people, most of whom died at the Tower of Joy. Rumours mean little unless something or someone can corroborate them. Everyone else involved was occupied with other things they may have felt more important. Tywin, for example, would have been thinking about a Lannister presence in KL as well as amassing power. Tyrion was a kid or a teenager, whatever. Varys would have been focused on the war, on the safety of King's Landing. No one would have been thinking about the possibility of Rhaegar and Lyanna having a child.

In other words, for what reason would anyone in-universe expect that a son Ned Stark claims is a bastard - conflicting sources of the mother, to boot, again due to rumour - to be anything else than what Ned Stark says he is?

The only place we, the reader, gain any real sense of Jon's lineage is through Ned's PoV from AGoT. The realm doesn't even seem to know that Lyanna was pregnant. Only that she died. 

Finally, if anyone did have that thought, they clearly kept it to themselves.

And as for Varys? Well, having a little bird at the Tower of Joy would have been a little suspect, neh?

 

I think we have to consider that rhaegar and lyanna drama is very well known and brought a national war. Rhaegar is crown prince. Look at how people care about uk prince and his affairs. 

Lyanna was named as his queen in a very big event. She was abducted. War exploded. She missed for more than one year and died without witnesses. Then her honorable brother brought back home a stark bastard and had unusual attitude towards him: raise him at home. 

If you feel this will not raise a doubt. Then you are underestimate people's wisdom and gossip. 

 

[Neolaina]

21 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

I think we have to consider that rhaegar and lyanna drama is very well known and brought a national war. Rhaegar is crown prince. Look at how people care about uk prince and his affairs. 

Lyanna was named as his queen in a very big event. She was abducted. War exploded. She missed for more than one year and died without witnesses. Then her honorable brother brought back home a stark bastard and had unusual attitude towards him: raise him at home. 

If you feel this will not raise a doubt. Then you are underestimate people's wisdom and gossip. 

 

While I do consider that, no one went to war because Lyanna couldn't be found. While that may have been what incensed Brandon, causing him to call out for Rhaegar in King's Landing, the rebellion started when Jon Arryn refused to send his wards to what would have effectively been their deaths, due to Aerys' fear of rebellion. Many things were on the minds of many, and while you attach a lot of importance on that particular moment, that isn't going to be true for everyone involved.

Now, that isn't to say it isn't on people's minds. And people would have questions.

But, remember, it's well known that Ned was there when she died. Her death had witnesses, or at the very least one witness. And the realm knows it.

Quote

“She was a Stark of Winterfell,” Ned said quietly. “This is her place.”

“She should be on a hill somewhere, under a fruit tree, with the sun and clouds above her and the rain to wash her clean.”

"I was with her when she died," Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father." He could hear her still at times.

If Ned Stark's honorable enough to take responsibility - I realize this sounds ludicrous; but even when he's dishonorable, it's for an honorable reason, >.< - for a bastard he claims to have sired, I doubt few would think him a liar of whatever news he'd bring about Lyanna.

Finally, if the two houses who might care most about Lyanna's fate - say, Baratheon and Stark - are at peace with her fate, who's to argue? The Lannisters, who have the opportunity to join the royal family? No.

The Tyrells? The Martells? The Tullys?

After the war, people wanted to return to normalcy. The rumours about Lyanna Stark would have been something to occupy the minds of the smallfolk at best; the nobility would have had more self-serving concerns.

 

[kimim]

27 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

I think we have to consider that rhaegar and lyanna drama is very well known and brought a national war. Rhaegar is crown prince. Look at how people care about uk prince and his affairs. 

Lyanna was named as his queen in a very big event. She was abducted. War exploded. She missed for more than one year and died without witnesses. Then her honorable brother brought back home a stark bastard and had unusual attitude towards him: raise him at home. 

If you feel this will not raise a doubt. Then you are underestimate people's wisdom and gossip. 

 

Ned's story is very likely. Even Cat is not surprised that Ned has a bastard. What upsets her is that Ned brings the bastard home. Ned's story is actually very smart, in that by identifying himself as the father and by keeping the identity of the mother a secret, he sends the gossip flying after the identity of the mother. That obviously means Lyanna could not be the mother; in any case, there are no rumors about Lyanna's pregnancy or death in childbirth.

Then there is Ned's reputation. He was one of the leaders of the rebellion. He fought by Robert's side. He is Robert's best friend. That he would keep Rhaegar's child hidden is unlikely. He is also an honest, forthright man. That he would lie to his family and friends and allies for fifteen years is completely out of character. Add to that the fact that all witnesses but HR are dead, and that it all happened far away, in the middle of nowhere, Dorne.

My feeling is that Varys might know simply because of where he is when all this is happening. Maybe LF does, as well. I'm doubting it, though, as this is a northern issue, and neither LF nor Varys seems to be very knowledgeable about the region. If they were, surely they'd also know that zombies are on their way. They don't. North is the mystery, and Jon's parentage is part of that mystery.

[purple-eyes]

5 minutes ago, Neolaina said:

While I do consider that, no one went to war because Lyanna couldn't be found. While that may have been what incensed Brandon, causing him to call out for Rhaegar in King's Landing, the rebellion started when Jon Arryn refused to send his wards to what would have effectively been their deaths, due to Aerys' fear of rebellion. Many things were on the minds of many, and while you attach a lot of importance on that particular moment, that isn't going to be true for everyone involved.

Now, that isn't to say it isn't on people's minds. And people would have questions.

But, remember, it's well known that Ned was there when she died. Her death had witnesses, or at the very least one witness. And the realm knows it.

If Ned Stark's honorable enough to take responsibility - I realize this sounds ludicrous; but even when he's dishonorable, it's for an honorable reason, >.< - for a bastard he claims to have sired, I doubt few would think him a liar of whatever news he'd bring about Lyanna.

Finally, if the two houses who might care most about Lyanna's fate - say, Baratheon and Stark - are at peace with her fate, who's to argue? The Lannisters, who have the opportunity to join the royal family? No.

The Tyrells? The Martells? The Tullys?

After the war, people wanted to return to normalcy. The rumours about Lyanna Stark would have been something to occupy the minds of the smallfolk at best; the nobility would have had more self-serving concerns.

 

I do not want to repeat this, but Lyanna is the obvious ignition of this war, people made songs later that they fought and rhaegar died for her. She got a statue, she got a "lady lyanna" ship, and she was remembered by a lot of people, including renly and those who said she looked like Margarey. Not to mention how Robert yell around that how he missed Lyanna, blablabla. No matter how you want to reduce that effect, people remember her as the focus of this whole rebellion.

Ned only can confirm her death. She is his sister and he has major conflict of interest. He has every reason to be vague on her actual death situation. you do know that when you need to notarize something, you need to go to somebody who are not your family, right?

What I am saying is, there is no valid third party witness there. nobody know what is the situation of her death. Only knew she died mysteriously for "fever".

You really underestimate the power of gossip and curiosity. People can be very interested in things which do not have any relationship with them.

 

 

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Look, if any did speculate about it...they quickly dismissed it as unlikely, unimportant, & a can of worms that shouldn't be opened!

No real reason to dwell on it, & "Who did Ned do?" is just as juicy!

[Veloknight]

While the notion of R+L=J being common knowledge is certainly entertaining, I definitely don't see any evidence for it, and the case made against in this thread is pretty compelling.

I also think that this is the kind of notion that is deeply uncomfortable on many levels for most of the lords of Westeros. It has potentially earthshattering political ramifications, but only in very specific circumstances; and it requires thinking about a very traumatic time in Westerosi history which both rebels and loyalists would likely prefer to avoid thinking about. Ned's story is believable, sends the gossip down a dead end, and most important provides something that is psychologically and politically easier to accept than Jon's true parentage.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

4 hours ago, Veloknight said:

While the notion of R+L=J being common knowledge is certainly entertaining, I definitely don't see any evidence for it, and the case made against in this thread is pretty compelling.

I also think that this is the kind of notion that is deeply uncomfortable on many levels for most of the lords of Westeros. It has potentially earthshattering political ramifications, but only in very specific circumstances; and it requires thinking about a very traumatic time in Westerosi history which both rebels and loyalists would likely prefer to avoid thinking about. Ned's story is believable, sends the gossip down a dead end, and most important provides something that is psychologically and politically easier to accept than Jon's true parentage.

Exactly.  My idea is that the rumor would be well known to the people gossiping near the time of the rebellion, or the politically learned who have studied that time (like Tyrion) but interest has of course waned over the years as it became increasingly obvious that nothing was going to come of it - it was common sense that the Stark family would never admit why they had this bastard living in Winterfell and the idea has mostly vanished from most peoples minds.  Because he is under the close watch of a Barratheon loyalist, whose bastard he is doesn't matter.  Those who are aware of such things and the old rumor were probably reminded of it and had their suspicions strengthened when they heard "Ned's bastard" was sent to the Wall right after Robert visited Winterfell, but this also strengthened the belief that the Starks would never let it matter.  So for most of the series, GRRM has had absolutely no reason to let us know this theory existed, and plenty of reasons to not bring it up - it serves no literary purpose at all because it has had little bearing on the actual plot and he obviously was not wanting to reveal Jon's parentage - so if the rumor is not true, it is completely irrelevant, and if it is true or partially true, revealing the rumor would provide too many clues and makes one of the mysteries of the series too obvious.

But I believe that recent events have made it very relevant again... I think it would be a flaw in his writing if any of the characters who would be aware of this rumor don't think about it or at least provide clues they are aware of it if the text shows them thinking about Jon raising an army and attempting to march on Winterfell.  GRRM could still keep the rumor obfuscated by not having POV characters finding out about this or thinking about Jon in their chapters, and non POV characters could be shown discussing events at the Wall yet not talking about their suspicions for multiple consistent reasons, but I am certain we are going to eventually start seeing hints that people might know in the next book, and if Jon's parentage is revealed publicly or certain things happen (like Jon riding a dragon, or becoming involved in the plots of Daenerys or Aegon) I am sure the existence of the rumor WILL come up. If it didn't, I would take that as evidence that those characters had never heard such a rumor or entertained such thoughts, but since GRRM knows human nature well, and has shown that other rumors do abound, I think not having such rumors and theories exist would be very unrealistic for the reasons purple eyes and myself have listed here... But as I said, careful writing could keep the reveal hidden for quite a while longer.

I think not letting these rumors be known can be seen as proof that ?+L=J is true... If some of the alternatives were true, like Ashara Dayne being his mother, letting it be known that there were rumors that Lyanna was the mother would be a very clever way to preserve the mystery and good world building.  But if Lyanna is the mother, which I am 99% sure of, revealing the rumor earlier would have been too big a clue, even if the father was really Benjen, Howland, or Arthur.... HOWEVER if the rumor is revealed soon in the next book, without confirmation to the reader, I would take that to mean that R+L=J is not true or there are bigger twists involved in it (like a twin) - it would be a very clever way to do a two stage reveal. Kind of like Star Wars - WoW - "Jon, Ned was not your father, it was Rhaegar". ADoS - "Jon, you have a sister" or "Everyone was wrong about Rhaegar being the father".

[Rippounet]

18 hours ago, kimim said:

Ned's story is very likely. Even Cat is not surprised that Ned has a bastard. What upsets her is that Ned brings the bastard home. Ned's story is actually very smart, in that by identifying himself as the father and by keeping the identity of the mother a secret, he sends the gossip flying after the identity of the mother. That obviously means Lyanna could not be the mother; in any case, there are no rumors about Lyanna's pregnancy or death in childbirth.

Then there is Ned's reputation. He was one of the leaders of the rebellion. He fought by Robert's side. He is Robert's best friend. That he would keep Rhaegar's child hidden is unlikely. He is also an honest, forthright man. That he would lie to his family and friends and allies for fifteen years is completely out of character. Add to that the fact that all witnesses but HR are dead, and that it all happened far away, in the middle of nowhere, Dorne.

All this, and one extra bit: no one really cares.

Yes, I know it's a bold assertion to make, but we, as readers, see Jon's parentage as important, because:
1) Jon is a main character in the books (in-world, he's far less important, even after becoming LC of the NW).
2) We know that bastards can be important politically. But that's because we know our history, and we know that both Robb and Stannis wanted to legitimize Jon.
3) We know that parentage can be important because of blood. (magical propoerties, bla bla bla... )
4) Some people argue that Rhaegar actually married Lyanna.

Now, take away all this information (1 through 4). Why would anyone dwell on the possibility of an illegitimate Targaryan? Of course, Robert hated the Targs... But even he was essentially focussed on threats to his rule. And he had legitimate Targs to care about!
Most people don't hate the Targs that much. And plenty of people have Targ blood anyway. Scratch the surface, and half the nobility of Westeros is part-Targ by some ancestor or another.

So a Targ bastard isn't much to be concerned about anyway. Hence why no one really questions Ned's story: it doesn't occur to them, because it's not that big a deal.

Only a handful of well-informed, well-read, well-placed characters, like Varys and LF would care. But Varys has legitimate Targs under his wing, and LF seems to care mostly about the Starks and Lannisters throughout the books.
So who's left to dwell on the matter? Even assuming some people think about a Targ restoration, they'll think of Viserys and Dany first. Who'd wonder about the possibility of a Targ bastard?

Once you add the fact that Aerys named Viserys his heir shortly before his death... You're left with an odd conclusion: now that Robert is dead, not that many people would care about Jon being Rhaegar's son. Oh sure, some people might... Except Aegon has just landed the Golden Company, and Dany is on her way with dragons.

And here lies the irony: Jon's parentage only becomes potentially important once a Targ restoration becomes likely. Which means, he only becomes important now that Aegon and Dany are coming back.
And just when it could matter, he is "officially" dead.

In a nuttshell, in-world Jon's parentage is never as important as the reader believes.
It may very well become important... But even that is a theory at present.
 

[Edd Tollett's One Vote]

In adding to 'why people wouldn't think about it or wouldn't suspect it', I have to ask: When do people find out about Ned Stark's bastard? I mean, if it's right after he comes back from The Tower of Joy, and he just has a baby, then it's definitely questionable for no one to ask questions. But, even on his way back, is it common knowledge that Ned Stark is travelling North with a baby (his supposed bastard)? Surely, during this time other people would've had bigger things to gossip about, or worry about, and simply might not have thought about it or might not have cared. "Ned has a bastard - oh that's mildly interesting - now, back to trying to solidify alliances in a suddenly shifting political arena." Gossip might not have spread amongst the nobility about Ned's bastard until well after Jon's birth, or amongst the commoners (though, let's be honest - it hardly matters what they think because we have so few commoner povs - for all we know the high septon's plan has been to back Jon this whole time as he's a secret targ supporter who heard such speculations from his commoner parents as a child). 

Basically, my point is that people might have been talking about these two occurrences at different times and so the majority of people may not have pieced them together. (Though I agree that someone in the world should have wondered about it!) But someone like Tyrion for example, he probably learned about the War and the Lyanna and Rhaegar incident, then years later met Ned Stark's bastard. By that point he probably wasn't thinking about L+R at all, so had no reason to suddenly link them to J. 

Just my thoughts!

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

One chain of thought that could lead to it is "It seems unlikely that Ned Stark would father a bastard.  Is there any reason why he might claim a child is his bastard that he did not father?" and BAM, there ya go.